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A qualitative study exploring concepts and attitudes of guinea pig producers in rural parishes of Pichincha, Ecuador: The need for a one health-one welfare approach to enhance production practices. 一项探讨厄瓜多尔皮钦查农村教区豚鼠生产者的概念和态度的定性研究:需要一种健康一福利方法来加强生产实践。
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-11-13 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101271
Heather Fowler, Grace Faulkner, Gustavo Donoso, Oscar Fuentes, Monique Pairis-Garcia, Sarah Rhea

With its compact size, resilience at high altitudes, and high feed efficiency, the guinea pig (Cavia porcellus) is a sustainable and high-quality protein option for people in resource restrictive areas of South America's Andean region. Each year in Ecuador, 47 million guinea pigs, destined for sale or household consumption, are produced. Despite the reported presence and anticipated growth of guinea pig production in the region, husbandry standards in this industry have not been fully documented. A qualitative study was conducted to explore the thoughts, attitudes, and practices of guinea pig producers in three rural parishes of Pichincha, Ecuador regarding guinea pig production, health, and welfare. During October-December 2024, a focus group was held in each parish with discussion including the basic principles of animal production and husbandry (i.e., breeding, feeding, treatment, preventative activities, euthanasia). Focus group transcripts underwent thematic analysis. Inductive codes were identified via an iterative open coding process with two independent coders, until a unifying theme was identified. Nineteen guinea pig producers participated across the three focus groups. A One Health approach was identified as the primary domain under which the identified themes fell. The main unifying theme mapped back to the concepts of traditional and modern medicine. The rural Ecuadorian guinea pig producers included in this study implement a combination of traditional and modern medicine and production practices to ensure the humane production of this species. When developing and implementing future studies and educational programs, researchers, veterinarians, and agricultural educators should consider blending these two strategies to ensure the industry can improve in a One Health-One Welfare way.

豚鼠(Cavia porcellus)体型小巧,在高海拔地区适应性强,饲料效率高,是南美洲安第斯地区资源有限地区人们可持续的高质量蛋白质选择。厄瓜多尔每年生产4700万只豚鼠,用于销售或家庭消费。尽管据报道,该地区的豚鼠生产已经存在,并且预计会有所增长,但该行业的饲养标准尚未得到充分的记录。进行了一项定性研究,探讨厄瓜多尔皮钦查三个农村教区的豚鼠生产者关于豚鼠生产、健康和福利的思想、态度和做法。在2024年10月至12月期间,在每个教区举行了一个焦点小组,讨论包括动物生产和畜牧业的基本原则(即繁殖、喂养、治疗、预防活动、安乐死)。对焦点小组记录进行专题分析。归纳码是通过两个独立编码器的迭代开放编码过程来确定的,直到确定一个统一的主题。19名豚鼠生产者参加了三个焦点小组。一个健康方针被确定为确定主题所属的主要领域。主要的统一主题可以追溯到传统医学和现代医学的概念。本研究中包括的厄瓜多尔农村豚鼠生产者实施了传统与现代医学和生产实践相结合的方法,以确保该物种的人道生产。在制定和实施未来的研究和教育计划时,研究人员、兽医和农业教育工作者应该考虑将这两种策略结合起来,以确保该行业能够以“同一健康,同一福利”的方式发展。
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引用次数: 0
Balancing tradition and animal welfare: Adapting an animal-involving festival to climate change in Fukushima, Japan. 平衡传统和动物福利:在日本福岛,让一个涉及动物的节日适应气候变化。
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-11-12 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101270
Fumiue Harada, Morihito Takita, Kenji Shibuya

Climate change poses critical risks to humans and animals, particularly during outdoor events. The Soma Nomaoi Festival in Fukushima, Japan, with a thousand-year history involving horses and riders, has become vulnerable to rising summer temperatures. In 2023, during a record high of 35.2 °C, 83 heatstroke cases occurred, including 74 among spectators and nine among horse riders, with two horse fatalities and 111 horses requiring medical care. In response, organizers rescheduled the 2024 festival to May, resulting in a maximum temperature of 24 °C. Human heatstroke cases dropped by 83 % (to 18 cases), and equine cases fell from 111 to 38. Although injuries from heightened horse activity increased, overall welfare improved. This case illustrates how traditional festivals can adapt to climate change while preserving cultural integrity. The experience demonstrates the value of the One Health approach in balancing cultural tradition, human safety, and animal welfare.

气候变化对人类和动物构成重大风险,特别是在户外活动期间。日本福岛的相马节(Soma Nomaoi Festival)有上千年的骑马历史,但由于夏季气温上升,该节日变得脆弱起来。2023年,在创纪录的35.2°C期间,发生了83例中暑病例,其中74例是观众,9例是骑手,有2匹马死亡,111匹马需要医疗护理。作为回应,组织者将2024年的音乐节改到了5月,导致最高气温为24°C。人类中暑病例下降83%(降至18例),马病例从111例降至38例。尽管马匹活动加剧造成的伤害有所增加,但总体福利有所改善。这个案例说明了传统节日如何在保持文化完整性的同时适应气候变化。这一经验证明了“同一个健康”方针在平衡文化传统、人类安全和动物福利方面的价值。
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引用次数: 0
Is it feasible to develop a one health surveillance system in a fragile state? The case of Guinea-Bissau. 在一个脆弱的国家建立一个单一的卫生监测系统可行吗?以几内亚比绍为例。
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-11-11 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101269
F O L Fernandes, S Crima, P Ferrinho

Background: Guinea-Bissau is a fragile state marked by political instability, weak governance, and fragmented institutions. Despite these challenges, recent international support and policy initiatives have promoted a growing interest in adopting a One Health (OH) approach to integrated human, animal, and environmental health surveillance.

Objectives: To explore the feasibility of developing a national One Health surveillance (OHS) system in Guinea-Bissau through stakeholder insights into governance, system integration, and technological and community factors.

Methods: A qualitative study, specifically a focus group discussion with seven purposively selected professionals from human, animal, and environmental health sectors, was conducted. Participants were experienced stakeholders from national institutions, non-governmental organizations, and international agencies. Discussions were guided by a pre-tested script, recorded in Creole, transcribed into Portuguese, and analyzed using inductive Thematic Analysis.

Results: Key barriers identified included: (1) political instability and lack of legal frameworks undermining long-term governance; (2) fragmented and uncoordinated health programs with limited territorial reach; (3) poor integration of surveillance systems and technological infrastructure; and (4) insufficient funding and training. However, participants highlighted opportunities, such as leveraging digital technologies (e.g., drones, artificial intelligence, big data), public-private partnerships, and increasing international engagement. Emphasis was placed on developing inclusive, interoperable platforms across different sectors and ensuring ethical data governance. Community involvement and tailored capacity building were deemed essential to system resilience and effectiveness.

Discussion: Findings align with regional and global evidence on the structural and operational barriers to OH implementation in fragile contexts. Despite major challenges, a phased, multisectoral strategy supported by legal reforms, sustainable financing, technological adaptation, and inclusive stakeholder engagement could enable Guinea-Bissau to build a functional OHS system.

Conclusion: Developing a OHS system in Guinea-Bissau is feasible if supported by institutional reforms, digital integration, sustained funding, capacity building, and strong community and civil society participation. Strategic coordination across sectors, grounded in ethical and equitable frameworks, is essential for long-term success.

背景:几内亚比绍是一个脆弱的国家,其特点是政治不稳定、治理薄弱和机构分散。尽管存在这些挑战,但最近的国际支持和政策举措促使人们越来越有兴趣采用“同一个健康”方法,对人类、动物和环境健康进行综合监测。目的:通过利益相关者对治理、系统集成、技术和社区因素的见解,探讨在几内亚比绍建立国家统一健康监测(OHS)系统的可行性。方法:进行了一项定性研究,特别是与有目的地从人类、动物和环境卫生部门选择的7名专业人员进行焦点小组讨论。与会者是来自国家机构、非政府组织和国际机构的经验丰富的利益攸关方。讨论以预先测试的脚本为指导,以克里奥尔语记录,转录成葡萄牙语,并使用归纳主题分析进行分析。结果:确定的主要障碍包括:(1)政治不稳定和缺乏破坏长期治理的法律框架;(2)区域范围有限的零散和不协调的卫生规划;(3)监测系统与技术基础设施一体化程度差;(4)资金和培训不足。然而,与会者强调了机遇,如利用数字技术(如无人机、人工智能、大数据)、公私伙伴关系以及加强国际参与。重点是开发跨不同部门的包容性、可互操作的平台,并确保合乎道德的数据治理。社区参与和有针对性的能力建设被认为对系统的复原力和有效性至关重要。讨论:研究结果与区域和全球证据一致,表明在脆弱背景下实施卫生保健的结构和操作障碍。尽管面临重大挑战,但在法律改革、可持续融资、技术适应和包容性利益攸关方参与的支持下,分阶段的多部门战略可以使几内亚比绍建立一个功能齐全的职业健康卫生系统。结论:在几内亚比绍,如果得到体制改革、数字整合、持续资金、能力建设以及社区和民间社会的大力参与的支持,发展职业健康卫生系统是可行的。基于道德和公平框架的跨部门战略协调对于长期成功至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Comprehensive review of One Health systems for emerging infectious disease detection and management. 一个卫生系统对新发传染病检测和管理的综合审查。
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-11-10 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101253
Aseel Basheer, Matthew Tran, Baseer Khan, Wolfgang Jentner, Aaron Wendelboe, Jason Vogel, Katrin Kuhn, Michael C Wimberly, David Ebert

This systematic review investigates how One Health systems, integrated digital platforms combining human, animal, and environmental health data, are currently designed and implemented for infectious disease detection and management. The study aims to identify integration patterns, functional purposes, and user interactivity across 202 reviewed systems published between 2015 and 2024. It categorized these systems by their purpose, diseases addressed, data types (human, animal, environmental), and user groups, such as public health officials and researchers. The tasks performed include data collection, analysis, visualization, and decision-making. Interactive techniques range from interactive filtering to predictive modeling, with varying levels of user interactivity, and note whether functional systems are available online. The search strategy utilized the keywords "one health dashboard visualization system OR one health dashboard OR one health system" across various databases Including IEEE xplore ScienceDirect PubMed And google scholar As well as other sources. While a significant portion of studies still rely on single-domain data, i.e., 20% of studies use only human data, 12% use only animal data, and 10% use only environmental data. The largest group (30%) integrates human and animal data, followed by 12% combining human and environmental data, and a smaller portion (1%) integrating animal and environmental data. The details of this comprehensive survey can be found on this webpage: https://onlylinks.cc/DjHH. There is a clear trend toward integrating multiple datasets, especially Human and Animal data. However, fully integrated One Health systems that combine all three domains remain relatively limited and often take the form of commentaries rather than applied systems, highlighting an opportunity for more comprehensive, data-driven implementations in future research.

本系统综述调查了One Health系统,即结合人类、动物和环境健康数据的集成数字平台,目前如何设计和实施传染病检测和管理。该研究旨在确定2015年至2024年间发布的202个被审查系统的集成模式、功能目的和用户交互性。它根据目的、处理的疾病、数据类型(人类、动物、环境)和用户群体(如公共卫生官员和研究人员)对这些系统进行了分类。执行的任务包括数据收集、分析、可视化和决策。交互式技术的范围从交互式过滤到预测建模,具有不同级别的用户交互性,并注意功能系统是否在线可用。搜索策略利用关键字“一个健康仪表板可视化系统或一个健康仪表板或一个健康系统”在各种数据库中,包括IEEE、explore、ScienceDirect、PubMed和谷歌scholar以及其他来源。虽然很大一部分研究仍然依赖于单一领域的数据,即20%的研究仅使用人类数据,12%仅使用动物数据,10%仅使用环境数据。最大的群体(30%)整合了人类和动物数据,其次是12%的人与环境数据结合,还有一小部分(1%)整合了动物和环境数据。有关这项全面调查的详情,请浏览以下网页:https://onlylinks.cc/DjHH。有一个明显的趋势是整合多个数据集,特别是人类和动物数据。然而,结合所有三个领域的完全集成的“一个健康”系统仍然相对有限,并且往往采取评论而不是应用系统的形式,这突出了在未来研究中更全面、数据驱动的实施的机会。
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引用次数: 0
Antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) bacteria in the food chain: Current challenges and global mitigation strategies. 食物链中的抗微生物药物耐药性细菌:当前挑战和全球缓解战略。
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-11-10 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101273
Olivia Lautan, Yung-Hsuan Cheng, Rosita Pranata, Yu-Ying Chen, Yu-Hsuan Shi, Ssu-Ning Chen, Rong-Jane Chen

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in foodborne bacteria is an escalating global public health challenge, threatening the effectiveness of antibiotics and food safety. This review examines AMR trends in foodborne bacteria, compares management strategies across different regions, and explores policies aligned with the One Health approach. Data from Taiwan, the United States, the European Union, Japan, and Africa indicate that foodborne pathogens exhibit significant resistance to antibiotics, posing serious challenges to public health and food systems. In response to this growing challenge, nations have implemented surveillance programs, national action plans, and public awareness campaigns, often guided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and international frameworks. It also proposes key management strategies, including risk assessment, environmental monitoring of food production and processing, and enhanced cross-sector collaboration. By integrating national AMR management efforts with global best practices, countries can strengthen their capacity to address this pressing challenge. Collaborative actions, including policy alignment, research innovation, and cross-sector cooperation, are essential for achieving more effective control of foodborne AMR pathogens worldwide.

食源性细菌的抗微生物药物耐药性(AMR)是一个不断升级的全球公共卫生挑战,威胁着抗生素的有效性和食品安全。本综述审查了食源性细菌的抗菌素耐药性趋势,比较了不同地区的管理策略,并探讨了与“同一个健康”方针相一致的政策。来自台湾、美国、欧盟、日本和非洲的数据表明,食源性病原体对抗生素表现出明显的耐药性,对公共卫生和食品系统构成严重挑战。为应对这一日益严峻的挑战,各国在世界卫生组织(世卫组织)和国际框架的指导下,实施了监测方案、国家行动计划和公众宣传运动。它还提出了关键的管理战略,包括风险评估、食品生产和加工的环境监测以及加强跨部门合作。通过将国家抗微生物药物耐药性管理工作与全球最佳做法结合起来,各国可以加强其应对这一紧迫挑战的能力。协作行动,包括政策协调、研究创新和跨部门合作,对于在世界范围内更有效地控制食源性抗菌素耐药性病原体至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Commensal, pathogen, or passenger? Rethinking the role of Blastocystis in human health. 共生,病原体,还是乘客?重新思考囊虫在人类健康中的作用。
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-11-08 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101272
Petr Heneberg

Blastocystis is one of the most prevalent intestinal protists, colonizing more than one billion people worldwide. Nevertheless, its role in health and disease remains blurred. Blastocystis was historically dismissed as a commensal. However, it can have pathogenic or protective effects. This review synthesizes molecular epidemiology, clinical research, microbiome studies, and experimental models through a One Health approach to reassess Blastocystis. Subtypes ST1-ST4 are dominant in humans, but their health outcomes vary. ST4 is associated with irritable bowel syndrome and inflammatory responses. However, it has also been shown to exert protective effects on murine colitis models. In contrast, ST3 is frequently detected in healthy individuals with a diverse gut microbiota. Blastocystis is also widespread in animals, untreated water, wastewater, and food, reflecting complex transmission dynamics and raising concerns in low- and middle-income countries where poverty-related exposures increase risks. Diagnostic advances have improved detection, although mixed infections and inconsistent clinical interpretations persist, and treatment guidelines remain absent. Rather than being a uniform pathogen or benign passenger, Blastocystis emerges as a context-dependent component of the gut ecosystem and environmental microbiota. Its ubiquity across humans, animals, and the environment requires integrated surveillance, subtype-informed research, and interdisciplinary health strategies. Recognizing the ecological complexity of Blastocystis is essential for equitable diagnostics, treatment, and public health responses within the One Health framework.

囊虫是最普遍的肠道原生生物之一,在全世界有超过10亿人。然而,它在健康和疾病中的作用仍然模糊不清。囊虫在历史上被认为是一种共生体。然而,它可以有致病或保护作用。本文综合了分子流行病学、临床研究、微生物组研究和实验模型,通过One Health方法重新评估囊虫。ST1-ST4亚型在人类中占主导地位,但其健康结果各不相同。ST4与肠易激综合征和炎症反应有关。然而,它也被证明对小鼠结肠炎模型有保护作用。相比之下,ST3经常在具有多种肠道微生物群的健康个体中检测到。囊虫也广泛存在于动物、未经处理的水、废水和食物中,反映了复杂的传播动态,并引起了低收入和中等收入国家的关注,这些国家与贫困有关的接触增加了风险。诊断的进步改善了检测,尽管混合感染和不一致的临床解释仍然存在,治疗指南仍然缺乏。而不是一个统一的病原体或良性乘客,囊虫出现作为肠道生态系统和环境微生物群的一个上下文依赖的组成部分。它在人类、动物和环境中无处不在,需要综合监测、针对亚型的研究和跨学科卫生战略。认识到囊虫的生态复杂性对于在“同一个健康”框架内公平诊断、治疗和公共卫生反应至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Emergence of Vibrio and related genera infections in a hotspot of climate risks, southern Spain, 2010-2023. 2010-2023年西班牙南部气候风险热点地区弧菌及相关属感染的出现
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-11-06 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101267
Sandra Tapia-Poza, Estefanía Jurado-Tarifa, Inmaculada Guerrero-Lozano, Teresa Trujillo-Soto, Fátima Galán-Sánchez, Juan M Sánchez-Calvo, Joaquín A Triñanes-Fernández, Jaime Martínez-Urtaza, Manuel A Rodríguez-Iglesias

Vibrio has emerged as one of responsive pathogens to the conditions imposed by global warming, with an increasing impact in northern Europe. The epidemiological significance of these pathogens remains undetermined in the south of Europe. We analyzed clinical and epidemiological data from cases in southern Spain, a well-established climate hotspot. A 13-year retrospective analysis identified 167 clinical infection cases. Monthly seawater temperatures since 2010 were also evaluated to assess their correlation with infection occurrence. V. alginolyticus, Shewanella putrefaciens, S. algae, V. parahaemolyticus, V. fluvialis, and V. vulnificus were the most frequently isolated species from clinical cases such as otitis, gastroenteritis, infected wounds, and sepsis. An increase in incidence was observed over the study period in parallel to the warming trend in coastal waters. While this suggests an association between environmental change and Vibrio infections, additional factors such as population exposure patterns may likely also contribute. These findings underscore the need for surveillance systems to monitor the burden of these infections.

弧菌已成为对全球变暖所造成的条件作出反应的病原体之一,对北欧的影响越来越大。这些病原体在欧洲南部的流行病学意义仍未确定。我们分析了西班牙南部病例的临床和流行病学数据,这是一个公认的气候热点。一项为期13年的回顾性分析确定了167例临床感染病例。并对2010年以来的月海水温度进行了评估,以评估其与感染发生的相关性。溶藻弧菌、腐烂希瓦氏菌、藻类弧菌、副溶血性弧菌、河流弧菌和创伤弧菌是中耳炎、肠胃炎、伤口感染和败血症等临床病例中最常见的分离种。在研究期间,观测到发病率的增加与沿海水域的变暖趋势平行。虽然这表明环境变化与弧菌感染之间存在关联,但人口暴露模式等其他因素也可能起作用。这些发现强调需要建立监测系统来监测这些感染的负担。
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引用次数: 0
Mitochondrial genome analysis supports zoonotic transmission of triclabendazole-resistant human fascioliasis in Peru 线粒体基因组分析支持秘鲁三氯苯达唑耐药人片吸虫病的人畜共患传播
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101268
Pawan Kumar , Young-Jun Choi , Martha V. Fernandez-Baca , Rodrigo A. Ore , Maria L. Morales , Pedro Ortiz , Cristian Hoban , Miguel M. Cabada , Makedonka Mitreva
Fascioliasis is a parasitic infection caused by Fasciola spp., primarily affecting ruminant animals. These digenean flatworms cause severe liver damage in their hosts, resulting in substantial economic losses within the livestock industry. Human fascioliasis is an emerging public health concern, with an estimated global prevalence of 2.6 million cases. Infection in humans typically occurs through the ingestion of aquatic vegetation or water contaminated with metacercariae. Triclabendazole (TCBZ) remains the only drug recommended by WHO for the treatment of human fascioliasis and is widely used in livestock. However, the increasing prevalence of TCBZ resistance in livestock, along with reports of TCBZ-resistant human infections, poses a growing challenge to disease control. Although it has been suggested that resistant livestock infections may contribute to the emergence of resistance in human populations, this relationship has not been systematically investigated. In this study, we characterized the mitochondrial genomes of TCBZ-resistant and TCBZ-sensitive F. hepatica isolates from human infections and conducted a comparative haplotype analysis with F. hepatica samples obtained from cattle in the same region of Peru. Maximum-likelihood phylogenetic and haplotype network analyses of 304 animal and 11 human F. hepatica samples identified five distinct haplogroups. Mitochondrial haplotypes from human infections clustered into monophyletic groups alongside those from animal hosts, supporting the hypothesis of local zoonotic transmission from animal reservoirs. Additionally, a phylogeographic analysis of global ND1 sequence diversity provided insights into the demographic history of the parasite across pre- and post-domestication periods and revealed genetic signatures of global dissemination that have shaped its present-day distribution.
片形吸虫病是一种由片形吸虫病引起的寄生虫感染,主要影响反刍动物。这些地沟扁虫会对宿主造成严重的肝脏损伤,给畜牧业造成巨大的经济损失。人类片吸虫病是一个新兴的公共卫生问题,估计全球流行率为260万例。人类感染通常是通过摄入被囊蚴污染的水生植物或水而发生的。三氯苯达唑(TCBZ)仍然是世卫组织推荐用于治疗人片吸虫病的唯一药物,并广泛用于牲畜。然而,牲畜中越来越多的TCBZ耐药性,以及对TCBZ耐药的人类感染的报告,对疾病控制构成了越来越大的挑战。尽管有人认为,耐药牲畜感染可能导致人类出现耐药性,但这种关系尚未得到系统调查。在这项研究中,我们鉴定了从人类感染中分离出的抗tcbz和敏感tcbz的肝单倍型菌株的线粒体基因组,并与秘鲁同一地区的牛肝单倍型样品进行了比较分析。304个动物样本和11个人类样本的最大似然系统发育和单倍型网络分析鉴定出5个不同的单倍群。来自人类感染的线粒体单倍型与来自动物宿主的线粒体单倍型聚集成单系群,支持了来自动物宿主的当地人畜共患病传播的假设。此外,全球ND1序列多样性的系统地理学分析提供了对寄生虫在驯化前和驯化后时期的人口统计学历史的见解,并揭示了塑造其当今分布的全球传播的遗传特征。
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引用次数: 0
Combining data assimilation of states and parameters for more precise infectious disease prediction. 结合状态和参数的数据同化进行更精确的传染病预测。
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-11-04 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101266
Zihan Hao, Shujuan Hu, Jianping Huang, Jiaxuan Hu, Zhen Zhang, Jingjing Zhang, Wei Yan, Han Li

Global escalation of infectious disease outbreak risks necessitates advanced predictive models. Despite methodological advances, errors in initial states and parameters of epidemiological dynamic models remain a key limitation to prediction reliability. To address this limitation, we propose an optimized data assimilation framework for combined state-parameter optimization based on Ensemble Kalman Filter. We design space transformations and adaptive covariance inflation driven by epidemic development and prediction errors, achieving a more stable update process and rapid response to epidemic changes. Through synthetic experiments and real-world case studies, the proposed scheme significantly reduces initial state and parameter errors, leading to a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy during the early stages of an epidemic. Compared with predictions without data assimilation, the average prediction error rate decreased by more than 50 % for 1-day predictions and by approximately 15 % for 7-day predictions. The prediction accuracy rate for the peak day of the epidemic and the peak number of infected cases reached more than 70 % in advance by 3 days. Critically, simple dynamical model integrated with our data assimilation framework outperform complex models without data assimilation. This study establishes data assimilation as an essential tool for epidemic forecasting and provides an extensible framework adaptable to multiple infectious diseases, offering critical support for public health decision making.

传染病爆发风险的全球升级需要先进的预测模型。尽管方法有所进步,但流行病学动态模型的初始状态和参数的误差仍然是预测可靠性的主要限制。针对这一局限性,提出了一种基于集成卡尔曼滤波的状态参数组合优化数据同化框架。我们设计了由疫情发展和预测误差驱动的空间变换和自适应协方差膨胀,实现了更稳定的更新过程和对疫情变化的快速响应。通过综合实验和实际案例研究,提出的方案显著降低了初始状态和参数误差,从而大大提高了流行病早期阶段的预测精度。与没有数据同化的预测相比,1天预测的平均预测错误率下降了50%以上,7天预测的平均预测错误率下降了约15%。对疫情高峰日和感染高峰人数的预测准确率提前3天达到70%以上。关键是,集成了数据同化框架的简单动态模型优于没有数据同化的复杂模型。本研究确立了数据同化作为流行病预测的重要工具,并提供了一个适用于多种传染病的可扩展框架,为公共卫生决策提供重要支持。
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引用次数: 0
Molecular detection and characterization of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus pseudintermedius (MRSP) ST2361 in a healthcare setting 在医疗环境中耐甲氧西林假中葡萄球菌(MRSP) ST2361的分子检测和表征
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101265
Reza Besharati , Ali Haghbin , Seyed Ahmad Hashemi , Ahmad Vosoughi-Motlagh , Amir Azimian

Background

Staphylococcus pseudintermedius, a commensal in dogs, is an emerging zoonotic pathogen with increasing methicillin-resistant (MRSP) strains. This study investigated MRSP isolates from hospital environments and healthcare workers in Bojnurd, Iran, to assess antimicrobial resistance and zoonotic potential.

Methods

Nasal swabs from healthcare workers (n = 40) and hospital supplies (n = 35) were cultured. Phenotypic and genotypic analyses included antimicrobial susceptibility testing (Kirby-Bauer), PCR for resistance (mecA, vanA, cfr) and virulence genes (pvl, hla, icaA/D), SCCmec typing, and multilocus sequence typing (MLST).

Results

Two MRSP isolates (ST2361) were identified, one from a nasal swab and another from hospital supplies. Both exhibited resistance to β-lactams (cefoxitin, penicillin), fluoroquinolones, macrolides, and sulfonamide-trimethoprim, but susceptibility to tetracyclines, gentamicin, linezolid, and vancomycin. PCR confirmed mecA and virulence genes (pvl, hla, icaA/D). A SCCmec pattern consistent with type IV and identical ST2361 profiles suggested potential clonal relatedness.

Conclusion

The presence of MRSP ST2361 in humans and hospital environments highlights its zoonotic and nosocomial transmission risks. The isolates' multidrug resistance and virulence genes underscore the need for improved diagnostics, antimicrobial stewardship, and infection control measures in healthcare settings.
假中间葡萄球菌(staphylococcus pseudointermedius)是犬的一种共生菌,是一种新兴的人畜共患病原体,具有越来越多的耐甲氧西林(MRSP)菌株。本研究调查了伊朗Bojnurd医院环境和卫生保健工作者中分离的MRSP,以评估抗菌素耐药性和人畜共患的可能性。方法对卫生工作者(n = 40)和医院用品(n = 35)的鼻拭子进行培养。表型和基因型分析包括抗菌药敏试验(Kirby-Bauer),耐药性(mecA, vanA, cfr)和毒力基因(pvl, hla, icaA/D)的PCR检测,SCCmec分型和多位点序列分型(MLST)。结果鉴定出2株MRSP分离株(ST2361), 1株来自鼻拭子,1株来自医院供应品。两者均对β-内酰胺类(头孢西丁、青霉素)、氟喹诺酮类、大环内酯类和磺胺-甲氧苄啶耐药,但对四环素类、庆大霉素、利奈唑胺和万古霉素敏感。PCR证实了mecA和毒力基因(pvl、hla、icaA/D)。与IV型一致的SCCmec模式和相同的ST2361谱表明潜在的克隆亲缘关系。结论MRSP ST2361在人类和医院环境中的存在突出了其人畜共患和医院传播的风险。分离株的多药耐药和毒力基因强调了在卫生保健环境中改进诊断、抗菌药物管理和感染控制措施的必要性。
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One Health
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