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High hepatitis E virus prevalence in pig slurry samples from the north-western region of Germany 德国西北地区猪浆样本中戊型肝炎病毒的高流行率
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101291
Florian Hinte , Marc Lütgehetmann , Toni Luise Meister , Katja Giersch , Maura Dandri , Julian Schulze zur Wiesch , Sven Pischke
Pork is recognized as the primary source of transmission for Hepatitis E virus (HEV) genotypes 3 and 4 (gt3/4) in industrialized countries. In Germany, approximately 10 % of retail pork samples test positive for HEV. However, the potential role of pig manure as a reservoir contributing to the environmental and zoonotic transmission of HEV genotype 3 remains insufficiently characterized.
To assess HEV contamination in manure, 61 pig slurry samples were collected from various collection points in northwestern Germany and analyzed for HEV and hepatitis A virus (HAV) RNA using quantitative PCR. In line with the “One Health” concept, which emphasizes the interconnectedness of humans, animals, and the environment, this study aimed to evaluate pig manure as a potential source of HEV contamination of agricultural land and food plants, thus posing a risk to both omnivorous and vegetarian populations.
HEV RNA was detected in 67 % (41/61) of the samples, with viral loads ranging from 5.2 × 102 to 1.8 × 105 copies/mL (median 6.8 × 103 copies/mL), whereas HAV RNA was not detected in any sample. Genotyping via nested PCR identified HEV genotype 3c, a subtype frequently detected in human infections in Germany. To further characterize the viral particles, four samples with the highest viral loads were subjected to linear density gradient ultracentrifugation. Two distinct fractions were identified, corresponding to enveloped particles (suggesting urinary origin) and non-enveloped particles (suggesting fecal origin).
In conclusion, this study provides evidence for the frequent presence of both enveloped and non-enveloped HEV particles in pig slurry in Germany. These findings highlight manure as a potential environmental reservoir for HEV and underscore the need for further studies to determine HEV infectivity in slurry and to assess its epidemiological significance within the One Health framework.
在工业化国家,猪肉被认为是戊型肝炎病毒(HEV)基因3型和4型(gt3/4)的主要传播来源。在德国,大约10%的零售猪肉样本检测出戊肝病毒阳性。然而,猪粪作为促进HEV基因3型环境和人畜共患传播的蓄水池的潜在作用仍然没有得到充分的表征。为了评估猪粪中HEV的污染情况,从德国西北部的不同收集点收集了61份猪浆样品,并使用定量PCR分析了HEV和甲型肝炎病毒(HAV) RNA。根据强调人类、动物和环境相互联系的“同一个健康”概念,本研究旨在评估猪粪作为农业用地和食用植物HEV污染的潜在来源,从而对杂食性和素食性人群构成风险。67%(41/61)的样本中检测到HEV RNA,病毒载量范围为5.2 × 102至1.8 × 105拷贝/mL(中位数为6.8 × 103拷贝/mL),而HAV RNA未在任何样本中检测到。通过巢式PCR进行基因分型鉴定出HEV基因型3c,这是在德国人类感染中经常检测到的一种亚型。为了进一步表征病毒颗粒,四种病毒载量最高的样品进行了线性密度梯度超离心。鉴定出两种不同的组分,对应于包膜颗粒(提示尿源)和非包膜颗粒(提示粪便源)。总之,这项研究为德国猪浆中经常存在包膜和非包膜HEV颗粒提供了证据。这些发现强调了粪便是HEV的潜在环境宿主,并强调需要进一步研究以确定猪粪中的HEV传染性,并在“同一个健康”框架内评估其流行病学意义。
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引用次数: 0
A data-driven approach for mitigation of fecal pathogen infections from unsafe WASH practices 减少不安全讲卫生做法造成的粪便病原体感染的数据驱动方法
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2026.101317
Achara Taweesan , Thammarat Koottatep , Thongchai Kanabkaew , Rathanit Sukthanapirat , Chongrak Polprasert
Fecal pathogen infections remain a major public health challenge in low- and middle-income countries, where unsafe water, inadequate sanitation, and poor hygiene persist. Northeastern Thailand continues to experience a high burden of helminth infections linked to deficient water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) conditions. Evidence-based identification of combined WASH thresholds is needed to support effective interventions and progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 6.
A cross-sectional study was conducted among 520 households across 18 communities in Tongkhop city, Sakon Nakhon Province, Thailand. Primary data from household surveys, key-informant interviews, and field observations were integrated with disease-surveillance records. A multilevel generalized linear model was applied to assess associations between WASH indicators and infection prevalence. Model-predicted outcomes were further analyzed using response surface methodology to quantify nonlinear interactions and identify optimal WASH thresholds.
Infection prevalence exceeded 40 cases per 1000 population in communities relying on untreated water, infrequent fecal-sludge emptying, and low hygiene compliance. Substantial risk reductions were observed when household water treatment exceeded 40 %, fecal-sludge emptying frequency reached 35–40 %, and handwashing compliance before meals surpassed 80 %, while raw-fish consumption remained below 50 %. The response-surface analysis revealed clear nonlinear synergies among WASH components, indicating that coordinated improvements were more effective than isolated interventions.
This study demonstrates that integrating multilevel modeling with response surface analysis enables quantitative identification of critical WASH thresholds for reducing fecal-pathogen infections. The findings highlight the importance of coordinated improvements in water safety, sanitation management, and hygiene behaviors to mitigate environmental transmission pathways. These results provide actionable, data-driven guidance for public health planning and support the environmental dimension of the One Health framework in advancing SDG 6.
在低收入和中等收入国家,粪便病原体感染仍然是一个重大的公共卫生挑战,在这些国家,不安全的水、不充分的卫生设施和不良的个人卫生状况持续存在。与缺乏水、环境卫生和个人卫生(WASH)条件有关,泰国东北部地区的寄生虫感染负担仍然很高。需要以证据为基础确定讲卫生运动的综合阈值,以支持有效的干预措施和实现可持续发展目标6的进展。一项横断面研究在泰国萨贡那空省通合市18个社区的520户家庭中进行。来自家庭调查、关键信息提供者访谈和实地观察的原始数据与疾病监测记录相结合。应用多层次广义线性模型来评估WASH指标与感染流行率之间的关系。使用响应面方法进一步分析模型预测结果,以量化非线性相互作用并确定最佳WASH阈值。在依赖未经处理的水、不经常排空粪便污泥和卫生依从性低的社区,感染率超过每1000人40例。当家庭用水处理超过40%,粪便污泥排空频率达到35 - 40%,饭前洗手率超过80%,而生鱼片消费量保持在50%以下时,观察到风险大幅降低。响应面分析揭示了WASH各组成部分之间明显的非线性协同作用,表明协调改进比单独干预更有效。该研究表明,将多层模型与响应面分析相结合,可以定量识别减少粪便病原体感染的关键WASH阈值。研究结果强调了协调改善水安全、环境卫生管理和个人卫生行为以减少环境传播途径的重要性。这些结果为公共卫生规划提供了可操作的、数据驱动的指导,并支持“同一个健康”框架的环境层面推进可持续发展目标6。
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引用次数: 0
Prevalence and risk factors of antimicrobial resistance in Staphylococcus spp. and Escherichia coli in fruit bats at high-risk human-wildlife interfaces in Bangladesh 孟加拉国高危人类与野生动物交界处果蝠中葡萄球菌和大肠杆菌的耐药性流行情况及危险因素
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101300
Md Helal Uddin , Shariful Islam , Pronesh Dutta , Monjurul Islam , Md. Kaisar Rahman , Muhammad Sazzad Hossain , Md Shahjalal Sagor , Md. Aftabuddin Rumi , Meerjady Sabrina Flora , Jade K. Forwood , Mohammed Abdus Samad , Jonathan H. Epstein , Sharmin Chowdhury , Ariful Islam
Antimicrobial resistant (AMR) bacteria are frequently detected in wildlife and are often considered an indicator of anthropogenic pathogen exposure to wildlife. However, the role of bats in AMR dissemination remains poorly understood. We conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate the prevalence and risk factors associated with AMR patterns in Staphylococcus spp. and Escherichia coli isolated from frugivorous bats in Bangladesh. We collected 369 noninvasive fecal samples from Pteropus medius and Rousettus leschenaultii individual bats. Bacterial isolation was performed using selective media, biochemical tests and performed polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for confirmation of Staphylococcus spp. and E. coli. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing for antimicrobials was conducted using the Kirby-Bauer disc diffusion technique. The prevalence of E. coli and Staphylococcus spp. was 29.8 % and 28.5 % respectively. Overall, 28.2 % of E. coli and 26.3 % of Staphylococcus spp. exhibited resistance to at least one antimicrobial. Logistic regression analysis revealed that resistant Staphylococcus spp. colonisation was significantly higher in rural areas (OR = 2.6) and in R. leschenaultii species (OR = 2.6), while resistant E. coli was higher in urban areas (OR = 2.0) and in P. medius bat (OR = 1.7). Staphylococcus spp. showed the highest resistance to ampicillin (56 %), followed by clindamycin (23 %). On the other hand, E. coli showed the highest resistance against cefepime (16 %) followed by ampicillin (13 %). While the source of AMR bacteria in bats remains unclear, bat drinking habits on the contaminated water bodies with people and domestic animals might be source of resistant bacteria to bats. Future One Health research is recommended to understand the ecology of AMR and role of bats in the transmission of resistant bacteria across ecosystems.
抗微生物药物耐药性(AMR)细菌经常在野生动物中检测到,通常被认为是人类病原体暴露于野生动物的指标。然而,蝙蝠在抗菌素耐药性传播中的作用仍然知之甚少。我们进行了一项横断面研究,以调查从孟加拉国食果蝙蝠中分离的葡萄球菌和大肠杆菌中与AMR模式相关的流行率和危险因素。我们收集了369份中翼蝠和leschenaultii蝙蝠的非侵入性粪便样本。采用选择性培养基、生化试验和聚合酶链反应(PCR)进行细菌分离,以确定葡萄球菌和大肠杆菌。采用Kirby-Bauer圆盘扩散技术进行抗菌药物的药敏试验。大肠杆菌和葡萄球菌感染率分别为29.8%和28.5%。总体而言,28.2%的大肠杆菌和26.3%的葡萄球菌对至少一种抗菌素具有耐药性。Logistic回归分析显示,农村地区(OR = 2.6)和leschenauli种(OR = 2.6)的耐药葡萄球菌定植量显著高于城市地区(OR = 2.0)和P. medium bat (OR = 1.7)的耐药大肠杆菌定植量显著高于城市地区(OR = 2.0)。葡萄球菌对氨苄西林的耐药性最高(56%),其次是克林霉素(23%)。另一方面,大肠杆菌对头孢吡肟的耐药性最高(16%),其次是氨苄西林(13%)。虽然蝙蝠AMR细菌的来源尚不清楚,但蝙蝠与人和家畜一起在受污染的水体上饮水的习惯可能是蝙蝠耐药细菌的来源。建议未来的One Health研究以了解抗菌素耐药性的生态学以及蝙蝠在跨生态系统传播耐药细菌中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Molecular detection of zoonotic RNA viruses in guinea pigs (Cavia porcellus) from small-scale family farming in the region of Cusco, Peru 秘鲁库斯科地区小型家庭养殖豚鼠(Cavia porcellus)人畜共患RNA病毒的分子检测
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2026.101335
Abel E. Quispe , Renzo Vera , Josimar Quiñones , José Angulo-Tisoc , César Lázaro , Alberto Manchego , Milagros Lostaunau , Edgar Valdez , Miguel Rojas , Dennis A. Navarro-Mamani
Emerging zoonotic diseases are frequently associated with close human-animal interactions in small-scale farming systems. Guinea pigs (Cavia porcellus) are widely raised for food in the Andean region, often under poor sanitary conditions; however, little is known about their role as reservoirs of enteric viruses with zoonotic potential. This study aimed to detect zoonotic RNA viruses in intestinal samples from guinea pigs raised on small-scale family farms in the Cusco region of Peru. A total of 34 intestinal tissue samples from adult guinea pigs showing gastrointestinal lesions were analyzed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and nested PCR for the molecular detection of Coronavirus (CoV), Rotavirus A (RVA), Mammalian orthoreovirus (MRV), and Kobuvirus (KoV). Positive amplicons were sequenced and analyzed phylogenetically to confirm the PCR assays. Overall, 91.18% (31/34) of samples tested positive for at least one virus. RVA was the most frequently detected (58.82%), followed by CoV (29.41%), MRV (23.53%), and KoV (23.53%). Single-virus infections accounted for 20 cases and co-infections were identified in 11 cases. RVA was the most frequently detected, both in single (n = 9) and co-infections (n = 11). KoV detection was predominantly associated with co-infections rather than single infections. These findings provide the first molecular evidence of multiple zoonotic RNA viruses in guinea pigs from small-scale farming in Peru, highlighting their potential role as reservoirs in zoonotic transmission cycles. Enhanced surveillance and improved farm-level biosecurity are essential to mitigate risks of viral emergence in these traditional farming systems.
在小规模农业系统中,新出现的人畜共患疾病通常与人与动物的密切相互作用有关。豚鼠(Cavia porcellus)在安第斯地区被广泛饲养作为食物,通常在恶劣的卫生条件下;然而,人们对它们作为具有人畜共患潜力的肠道病毒宿主的作用知之甚少。本研究旨在检测秘鲁库斯科地区小型家庭农场饲养的豚鼠肠道样本中的人畜共患病RNA病毒。采用反转录聚合酶链式反应(RT-PCR)和巢式PCR对34份有胃肠道病变的成年豚鼠肠道组织样本进行了冠状病毒(CoV)、轮状病毒A (RVA)、哺乳动物正肠呼肠病毒(MRV)和科布病毒(KoV)的分子检测。对阳性扩增子进行测序和系统发育分析,以证实PCR检测结果。总体而言,91.18%(31/34)的样本检测至少一种病毒呈阳性。以RVA(58.82%)最多,其次是CoV(29.41%)、MRV(23.53%)和KoV(23.53%)。单病毒感染占20例,合并感染占11例。在单一感染(n = 9)和合并感染(n = 11)中,RVA是最常见的。KoV检测主要与合并感染相关,而非单一感染。这些发现首次提供了在秘鲁小规模养殖的豚鼠中存在多种人畜共患病RNA病毒的分子证据,突出了它们在人畜共患病传播周期中作为宿主的潜在作用。加强监测和改善农场层面的生物安全对于减轻这些传统农业系统中病毒出现的风险至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
From governance scores to governance impact: Closing the know–do gap in AMR policy evaluation 从治理得分到治理影响:缩小抗生素耐药性政策评估中的知识差距
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2026.101350
Xiao-Xi Zhang , Yong-Zhang Zhu , Xiao-Nong Zhou
As the 2026 revision of the Global Action Plan (GAP) on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) approaches, attention is shifting from policy adoption to the more complex challenge of evaluating implementation. Although most countries now have national action plans, reductions in resistance remain limited, exposing a persistent know–do gap between formal commitments and real-world impact. This commentary argues that prevailing governance assessments prioritise institutional presence over functional performance, overlook political economy constraints, and insufficiently integrate environmental and agricultural domains central to One Health. We highlight how surveillance asymmetries and static scoring distort comparisons and misdirect investment. We propose an impact-oriented evaluation agenda that incorporates temporal dynamics, incentive structures, equity considerations, and causal inference approaches to distinguish genuine progress from reporting artefacts. Closing the know–do gap is essential if AMR governance is to move beyond preparedness and deliver measurable, sustained change.
随着《抗微生物药物耐药性全球行动计划》2026年修订版的迫近,人们的注意力正从政策制定转向评估实施情况这一更为复杂的挑战。虽然大多数国家现在都有国家行动计划,但减少耐药性的努力仍然有限,暴露出正式承诺与实际影响之间持续存在的知识差距。本评论认为,现行的治理评估优先考虑机构存在而不是功能表现,忽视了政治经济约束,并且没有充分整合对“一个健康”至关重要的环境和农业领域。我们强调监督不对称和静态评分如何扭曲比较和误导投资。我们提出了一个以影响为导向的评估议程,该议程结合了时间动态、激励结构、公平考虑和因果推理方法,以区分真正的进展和报告的伪产物。如果抗菌素耐药性治理要超越准备阶段,实现可衡量的、持续的变革,就必须缩小知识差距。
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引用次数: 0
Shared occurrence of Malassezia spp. in dogs and their owners 马拉色氏菌在狗及其主人中共同发生
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2026.101351
Mara Miglianti , Marcos Antonio Bezerra-Santos , Antonio Rizzo , Nicola Pugliese , Roberta Iatta , Rossella Samarelli , Vanessa Rosemary Duke Barrs , Domenico Otranto
Malassezia spp. are commensal yeasts inhabiting the skin of humans and animals; however, some species may cause dermatological disorders or bloodstream infections, especially in immunocompromised patients. The fastidious culture requirements of lipid-dependent species hamper understanding of the zoonotic role of this genus. This study investigated the occurrence, fungal load, and epidemiological links of Malassezia spp. between 73 dogs and their owners, comparing sampling methods (i.e., sterile dry swabs vs sterile gauzes) and culture media (i.e., Dixon's agar vs FastFung agar). Samples were collected from dogs and owner in sites exposed to contact (i.e., ears, muzzle, and perianal area in dogs; palms and interdigital spaces in humans). Yeasts were identified using morphological, biochemical, and molecular techniques, and quantified as colony forming units (CFUs). Overall, Malassezia spp. were detected in 68.5% of dogs (n = 50/73) and 21.9% of owners (n = 16/73). Among dog isolates, 49 were identified as Malassezia pachydermatis and one as Malassezia sympodialis; all human isolates were M. pachydermatis. Fungal loads were higher in muzzle than auricular samples (p = 0.017) and on FastFung agar compared with Dixon's agar (p = 0.011), with no significant difference between sampling methods (p = 0.341). Dog and owner fungal loads showed a moderate correlation (ρ = 0.480, p < 0.001), and dog positivity increased the odds of owner colonization (p = 0.044). Phylogenetic analysis of the intergenic spacer 1 (IGS-1) region showed that isolates from dogs and their owners clustered within M. pachydermatis reference sequences, with several dog–owner pairs consistently grouping in the same subclades. The findings underscore the importance of optimized diagnostic protocols for Malassezia spp. infection and suggest the muzzle as a high-risk area for potential zoonotic transmission, with implications for veterinary and public health concern.
马拉色菌属是寄生在人类和动物皮肤上的共生酵母菌;然而,某些种类可能引起皮肤疾病或血液感染,特别是在免疫功能低下的患者中。脂类依赖物种的严格培养要求阻碍了对该属人畜共患病作用的理解。本研究调查了73只狗及其主人之间马拉色菌的发生、真菌负荷和流行病学联系,并比较了取样方法(即无菌干拭子与无菌纱布)和培养基(即Dixon琼脂与FastFung琼脂)。从接触部位(即狗的耳朵、口鼻和肛周区域;人的手掌和指间空间)的狗和主人身上收集样本。利用形态学、生化和分子技术鉴定酵母,并将其量化为菌落形成单位(cfu)。总体而言,68.5%的犬(n = 50/73)和21.9%的饲主(n = 16/73)检出马拉色菌。在犬分离株中,49株鉴定为厚皮马拉色菌,1株鉴定为梅毒马拉色菌;所有人类分离株均为厚皮支原体。口腔真菌载量高于耳廓样品(p = 0.017), FastFung琼脂样品高于Dixon琼脂样品(p = 0.011),两种取样方法间无显著差异(p = 0.341)。狗和主人的真菌负荷呈中等相关性(ρ = 0.480, p < 0.001),狗的阳性增加了主人定植的几率(p = 0.044)。基因间间隔区1 (IGS-1)的系统发育分析表明,来自狗及其主人的分离株聚集在厚皮支原体参考序列内,其中几对狗主人一致地分组在同一亚支中。这些发现强调了优化马拉色氏菌感染诊断方案的重要性,并表明口部是人畜共患疾病潜在传播的高风险区域,这对兽医和公共卫生问题具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Integrated region-specific modeling of H5 avian influenza in Asia using ENSO-based forecasts 利用基于enso的预报对亚洲H5禽流感进行区域性综合建模
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2026.101322
Yinghui Su , Ruoxuan Wu , Pengfei Liu , Zhichao Li , Juan Pu , Lu Wang
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), particularly of the H5 subtype, remains a persistent threat to poultry, wildlife, and public health across Asia. This study quantifies the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) as the primary predictor, on the climate-driven dynamics of H5 HPAI through region- and host-stratified generalized additive models (GAMs). Seven region–host strata across Asia were modeled separately, revealing pronounced heterogeneity in event frequency. A clear negative correlation with MEI was identified in domestic poultry across East and South Asia, where higher MEI values, corresponding to El Niño conditions, were linked to reduced event frequencies. In contrast, wild bird populations in East and South Asia displayed irregular, multimodal response patterns to MEI, suggesting phase-specific sensitivities to climate variability. A recurrent neural network (RNN) was further employed to forecast MEI trends, which were then incorporated into the GAMs to predict event dynamics. The forecasts highlighted continued epidemic pressure in East Asia's wild birds, in contrast to stable or declining trends elsewhere. Given the zoonotic potential of H5 viruses, these climate-informed risk forecasts could help inform timely interventions to prevent animal-to-human transmission and support integrated One Health preparedness frameworks. This integrative statistical–deep learning framework offers valuable support for short-term early warning and regionally targeted prevention strategies for H5 HPAI preparedness across Asia.
高致病性禽流感(HPAI),特别是H5亚型,仍然对亚洲各地的家禽、野生动物和公共卫生构成持续威胁。本研究利用多元ENSO指数(MEI)作为主要预测因子,通过区域和宿主分层广义加性模型(GAMs)量化El Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO)对H5高致病性禽流感气候驱动动力学的影响。亚洲的七个区域宿主地层分别建模,揭示了事件频率的明显异质性。在东亚和南亚的家禽中发现了与MEI的明显负相关,其中较高的MEI值(对应于El Niño条件)与事件频率降低有关。相比之下,东亚和南亚的野生鸟类种群对MEI指数表现出不规则的多模态响应模式,表明它们对气候变率具有阶段性敏感性。采用递归神经网络(RNN)预测MEI趋势,然后将其纳入GAMs来预测事件动态。这些预测强调了东亚野生鸟类的持续流行病压力,与其他地区的稳定或下降趋势形成鲜明对比。鉴于H5病毒具有人畜共患的可能性,这些基于气候信息的风险预测有助于为及时采取干预措施提供信息,以防止动物向人类传播,并支持“同一个健康”综合防范框架。这一综合统计深度学习框架为亚洲各地H5高致病性禽流感的短期预警和有针对性的区域预防战略提供了宝贵支持。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the impact of vaccination and behavioural change on Mpox transmission in high-risk groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo using an age-structured mathematical model 使用年龄结构数学模型评估疫苗接种和行为改变对刚果民主共和国高危人群麻疹传播的影响
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2026.101324
Andrew Omame , Nicola Luigi Bragazzi , Ali Asgary , Chigozie Louisa J. Ugwu , Jude Dzevela Kong , Jianhong Wu , Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima
Mpox is a viral zoonotic disease that has gained global attention due to its recurrent outbreaks in endemic regions of Africa and beyond. The recent clade I outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been characterized by extensive transmission among children – particularly those under 15 years of age – and adults with elevated occupational risks, such as healthcare workers, sex workers, and hunters. Motivated by emerging evidence that vaccination alone may not explain the observed decline in mpox transmission across the DRC, and recognizing that behavioural modification is more feasible among adults, this study investigates the synergistic impact of vaccination and behaviour-driven contact reduction among high-risk adults within an age- and risk-structured modelling framework. The model stratifies the population into adults (high- and low-risk groups) and children. It incorporates vaccination for both adults and children, as well as behavioural adaptations (in the form of contact reduction) among high-risk adults. The model is calibrated to weekly reported mpox cases in the DRC from January 2024 to April 2025, from which key parameters are estimated. Scenario analyses reveal that among the adult population, behavioural change has a greater impact than vaccination in reducing mpox transmission. The model indicated that vaccination targeting children yielded the most significant effects, in comparison to either contact-reduction measures or immunization of adults. Moreover, our results indicate that initiating a 50% reduction in contact rates among high-risk adults approximately 20 weeks earlier yields an additional 20% decrease in the cumulative number of mpox cases, compared with implementing the same reduction concurrently with the vaccination intervention in the DRC. Given the current low vaccination coverage and supply constraints, our findings provide evidence-based guidance for optimizing vaccine allocation and prioritizing behavioural interventions among high-risk groups to prevent sustained transmission.
Mpox是一种病毒性人畜共患疾病,由于其在非洲及其他流行区域的反复暴发而引起全球关注。最近在刚果民主共和国暴发的第一进化支的特点是在儿童(特别是15岁以下儿童)和职业风险较高的成人(如卫生保健工作者、性工作者和猎人)中广泛传播。新出现的证据表明,仅接种疫苗可能无法解释在刚果民主共和国各地观察到的麻疹传播下降,并且认识到行为改变在成年人中更为可行,因此,本研究在年龄和风险结构建模框架内调查了疫苗接种和行为驱动的接触减少对高危成年人的协同影响。该模型将人口分为成人(高风险和低风险群体)和儿童。它包括成人和儿童的疫苗接种,以及高危成人的行为适应(以减少接触的形式)。该模型根据2024年1月至2025年4月期间刚果民主共和国每周报告的麻疹病例进行校准,并据此估计关键参数。情景分析表明,在成人人群中,行为改变在减少痘传播方面比接种疫苗具有更大的影响。该模型表明,与减少接触措施或成人免疫接种相比,针对儿童的疫苗接种效果最为显著。此外,我们的研究结果表明,与在刚果民主共和国同时实施疫苗接种干预措施相比,在大约20周之前开始将高危成年人的接触率降低50%,可使累计m痘病例数额外减少20%。鉴于目前疫苗接种覆盖率低和供应受限,我们的研究结果为优化疫苗分配和在高危人群中优先进行行为干预以防止持续传播提供了循证指导。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-model large-scale AI framework for avian influenza surveillance and preparedness: Harnessing large language models to enhance risk communication, real-time decision support, and public health response strategies 用于禽流感监测和防范的多模型大规模人工智能框架:利用大型语言模型加强风险沟通、实时决策支持和公共卫生应对战略
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2026.101357
Jude D. Kong , Murray Gillies , Emma Gardner , Nicola Luigi Bragazzi
Avian influenza remains a persistent threat to global health security, with serious consequences for food systems, trade, and pandemic preparedness. To address gaps in public health communication and stakeholder-specific decision-making, this study evaluated the capacity of large language models (LLMs) to provide accurate, context-sensitive, and ethically sound guidance in the context of avian influenza. Employing a multi-model, stakeholder-stratified evaluation framework, we tested four advanced generative AI models, namely, ChatGPT-4o (OpenAI), Grok (xAI), Gemini 1.5 Pro (Google), and DeepSeek R1 (DeepSeek), across two complementary tasks: (i) structured querying of 34 domain-specific items covering virological, epidemiological, veterinary, and global public health domains; and (ii) response generation to 16 synthetic vignettes simulating outbreak scenarios involving diverse societal roles. Results showed that Gemini 1.5 Pro demonstrated the highest factual accuracy (91.2% fully correct responses), followed by Grok (85.3%), ChatGPT-4o (82.4%), and DeepSeek R1 (82.4%). Vignette analysis further revealed model-specific communicative strengths and ethical orientations, ranging from procedural pragmatism to stakeholder-mapping and human-centered design. While Gemini excelled in blending empathetic and pedagogical reasoning, Grok offered implementation-oriented guidance, ChatGPT-4o emphasized legal-normative clarity, and DeepSeek R1 favored structural and institutional analysis. Collectively, our findings highlight the promise and limitations of current LLMs as tools for biosurveillance, risk communication, and cross-sectoral pandemic preparedness. They also emphasize the necessity of rigorous, role-aware benchmarking to ensure equitable and contextually appropriate integration of generative AI in public health infrastructures.
禽流感仍然是对全球卫生安全的持续威胁,对粮食系统、贸易和大流行防范造成严重后果。为了解决公共卫生沟通和特定利益攸关方决策方面的差距,本研究评估了大型语言模型(LLMs)在禽流感背景下提供准确、情境敏感和合乎伦理的指导的能力。采用多模型、利益相关者分层评估框架,我们测试了四个先进的生成式人工智能模型,即chatgpt - 40 (OpenAI)、Grok (xAI)、Gemini 1.5 Pro (b谷歌)和DeepSeek R1 (DeepSeek),它们跨越两个互补的任务:(i)对34个领域特定项目进行结构化查询,涵盖病毒学、流行病学、兽医和全球公共卫生领域;(二)对涉及不同社会角色的16个模拟疫情情景的合成小场景作出反应。结果显示,Gemini 1.5 Pro具有最高的事实准确性(91.2%),其次是Grok (85.3%), chatgpt - 40(82.4%)和DeepSeek R1(82.4%)。小插曲分析进一步揭示了特定于模型的交际优势和伦理取向,从程序实用主义到利益相关者映射和以人为本的设计。Gemini擅长融合同理心和教学推理,Grok提供面向实施的指导,chatgpt - 40强调法律规范的清晰度,而DeepSeek R1则倾向于结构和制度分析。总的来说,我们的研究结果突出了当前法学硕士作为生物监测、风险沟通和跨部门大流行防范工具的前景和局限性。他们还强调必须进行严格的、有角色意识的基准制定,以确保在公共卫生基础设施中公平和适合具体情况地整合生成人工智能。
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引用次数: 0
Evolution of foodborne disease surveillance in China: A 32-year journey from monitoring to early warning 中国食源性疾病监测的演变:从监测到预警的32年历程
IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2026.101348
Zhifang Zhang , Weiwei Chen , Xuejie Liu , Yanqin Deng , Huarong Hong , Shenggen Wu
China's foodborne disease (FBD) surveillance system was implemented later than those in most developed countries. However, in the past 32 years, it has undergone improvements: from pilot projects to full coverage; from a passive mode to an active one; from localized development to the integration of international standards; and from a single function to a comprehensive system.
During this process, China's health administrative departments have adjusted their regulatory departments and functions for FBDs in response to evolving epidemiological patterns of FBD. Simultaneously, they have used a phased, step-by-step approach to promote the use of whole genome sequencing (WGS) technology, according to the level of regional economic development, to facilitate FBD traceability. However, the system must be further improved in terms of traceability capabilities, multi-departmental collaboration, and data sharing mechanisms. At various historical stages, FBD outbreaks in China have shown distinct regional characteristics, and the spectrum of common pathogenic bacteria in China differs from those in the Europe Union (EU) and the United States. In China, diseases caused by microorganisms such as Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Salmonella, Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus cereus, and Echerichia coli are dominant. Since 2011, the number of FBD outbreaks has increased each year, and has been accompanied by a decline in the case fatality rate, thus reflecting improvements in foodborne detection technology in China. In the future, further integration of advanced technologies such as WGS will be necessary to enhance surveillance sensitivity, strengthen active and targeted surveillance of key populations, and establish a risk warning model tailored to China's dietary characteristics, thereby increasing the effectiveness of FBD prevention and control.
中国食源性疾病(FBD)监测系统的实施较大多数发达国家晚。然而,在过去的32年里,它经历了改进:从试点项目到全面覆盖;从被动模式到主动模式;从本土化发展到融入国际标准;从单一的功能到一个综合的系统。在此过程中,中国卫生行政部门根据不断变化的FBD流行病学格局,调整了FBD的监管部门和职能。同时,根据区域经济发展水平,采取分阶段、分步推进的方式,推动全基因组测序(WGS)技术的应用,促进FBD溯源。但是,该系统在可追溯能力、多部门协作、数据共享机制等方面还有待进一步完善。在不同的历史阶段,中国手足口病疫情呈现出明显的区域特征,常见致病菌谱与欧盟和美国不同。在中国,由副溶血性弧菌、沙门氏菌、金黄色葡萄球菌、蜡样芽孢杆菌和大肠杆菌等微生物引起的疾病占主导地位。自2011年以来,口蹄疫暴发的数量每年都在增加,并且伴随着病死率的下降,这反映了中国食源性检测技术的改进。未来需要进一步整合WGS等先进技术,提高监测灵敏度,加强对重点人群的主动、有针对性的监测,建立适合中国饮食特点的风险预警模型,从而提高FBD防控的有效性。
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One Health
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