Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021192
Yang Zhang, Hang Yao, Jianjun Qi, P. Jiang, B. Guo
Lithium-ion batteries have been growing in popularity for portable electronics, electric vehicles, aerospace and military devices due to many excellent characteristics. The prognostics and health management of lithium-ion batteries are significant. In this paper, a novel mixture model of multi-kernel relevance vector machines with dynamic weights (DW-MMKRVM) is proposed to estimate the real-time capacity of lithium-ion batteries based on indirect health indicators. Weights of each sub-model in DW-MMKRVM keep updating during sequential, online data collection and model training. Experiments illustrate the proposed approach can produce more robust and accurate capacity estimation, which is critical for prognostics and health management of lithium-ion batteries. Comparison results also show that the proposed DW-MMKRVM with more sub-models can increase the estimation accuracy.
{"title":"Real-Time Capacity Estimation of Lithium-ion Batteries Using a Novel Ensemble of Multi-Kernel Relevance Vector Machines","authors":"Yang Zhang, Hang Yao, Jianjun Qi, P. Jiang, B. Guo","doi":"10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021192","url":null,"abstract":"Lithium-ion batteries have been growing in popularity for portable electronics, electric vehicles, aerospace and military devices due to many excellent characteristics. The prognostics and health management of lithium-ion batteries are significant. In this paper, a novel mixture model of multi-kernel relevance vector machines with dynamic weights (DW-MMKRVM) is proposed to estimate the real-time capacity of lithium-ion batteries based on indirect health indicators. Weights of each sub-model in DW-MMKRVM keep updating during sequential, online data collection and model training. Experiments illustrate the proposed approach can produce more robust and accurate capacity estimation, which is critical for prognostics and health management of lithium-ion batteries. Comparison results also show that the proposed DW-MMKRVM with more sub-models can increase the estimation accuracy.","PeriodicalId":233855,"journal":{"name":"2019 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering (QR2MSE)","volume":"18 3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116752871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021134
Hong-Hua Sun, Xudong Chen, Qing-yang Li, Chunwei Li
Axis are usually hollow or solid cylindrical members. According to different needs, complex geometric elements such as holes, grooves, splines and steps will be designed on the axis. These parts often lead to stress concentration and high local stress, and multiaxial fatigue will be caused by multi-direction stress or strain in the process of processing. Taking the spindle of a bearing ring inner grinder as the research object, the working mechanism of the inner grinder, the feeding mode of the spindle and the workpiece are analyzed. The fatigue life prediction model of the spindle is determined by the critical plane method, and the number of stress cycles and fatigue damage of the spindle under four technological processes are also determined. In view of the fact that the inner grinder of bearing rings will change the size of workpiece irregularly, the influence of bearing rings of different sizes on the fatigue life of the spindle is simulated and analyzed. The maximum stress cycle times of the spindle are calculated, and the scatter plot is drawn. Finally, the relationship curve and function relationship between the inner diameter of bearing rings and the fatigue life of the spindle are obtained by the least square curve fitting method combined with the MATLAB curve fitting toolbox.
{"title":"Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Critical Plane Method","authors":"Hong-Hua Sun, Xudong Chen, Qing-yang Li, Chunwei Li","doi":"10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021134","url":null,"abstract":"Axis are usually hollow or solid cylindrical members. According to different needs, complex geometric elements such as holes, grooves, splines and steps will be designed on the axis. These parts often lead to stress concentration and high local stress, and multiaxial fatigue will be caused by multi-direction stress or strain in the process of processing. Taking the spindle of a bearing ring inner grinder as the research object, the working mechanism of the inner grinder, the feeding mode of the spindle and the workpiece are analyzed. The fatigue life prediction model of the spindle is determined by the critical plane method, and the number of stress cycles and fatigue damage of the spindle under four technological processes are also determined. In view of the fact that the inner grinder of bearing rings will change the size of workpiece irregularly, the influence of bearing rings of different sizes on the fatigue life of the spindle is simulated and analyzed. The maximum stress cycle times of the spindle are calculated, and the scatter plot is drawn. Finally, the relationship curve and function relationship between the inner diameter of bearing rings and the fatigue life of the spindle are obtained by the least square curve fitting method combined with the MATLAB curve fitting toolbox.","PeriodicalId":233855,"journal":{"name":"2019 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering (QR2MSE)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124986440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021211
Hang Yao, X. Jia, Z. Cheng, B. Guo
Residual life prediction using monitoring data is an important method in reliability engineering. However, in the current performance degradation study, the selection of performance degradation characteristics is usually selected based on expert experience. In this study, a method using grey correlation analysis is applied to select the performance degradation characteristics as the health index of products. Further, the selected characteristics are analyzed with the linear Wiener process model. And the model parameters are estimated using the MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) method in the view of Bayes theory. Finally, a numerical example concerning the remaining life estimation of a certain satellite product is presented.
{"title":"Residual Life Prediction Using Grey Correlation Analysis of Feature Selection","authors":"Hang Yao, X. Jia, Z. Cheng, B. Guo","doi":"10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021211","url":null,"abstract":"Residual life prediction using monitoring data is an important method in reliability engineering. However, in the current performance degradation study, the selection of performance degradation characteristics is usually selected based on expert experience. In this study, a method using grey correlation analysis is applied to select the performance degradation characteristics as the health index of products. Further, the selected characteristics are analyzed with the linear Wiener process model. And the model parameters are estimated using the MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) method in the view of Bayes theory. Finally, a numerical example concerning the remaining life estimation of a certain satellite product is presented.","PeriodicalId":233855,"journal":{"name":"2019 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering (QR2MSE)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131573241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021193
Yanhua Cao, Yong Li, Chun-liang Chen, Yiran Guo
The working time of combat equipment’s engine, such as the diesel engine of armored vehicle, reflects its technical condition to a great degree. However, the identical use time under different external usage environments may reflect different technical conditions of equipment. But the residual life can be indirectly estimated more accurately by calculating equipment’s equivalent use time. Empirically speaking, the same values of degradation parameters usually reflect the same technical conditions of the equipment when it even worked under different external environments. The service life of the same type of equipment under the same usage environments is similar. In this paper, the determination principle and measurement method of the technical parameters is put forward firstly. Then, the neural network’s advantages in prediction field are put forward and the method of regression prediction with neural network is chosen to estimate the equivalent working time of diesel engine of armored vehicle. The standard external usage environments are specified so as to change the ordinary working time into its equivalent. Taking a certain type of armored equipment diesel engine as an example, the prediction model is built based on several degradation parameters. Then the model is tested and verified by actual usage data. The calculation results indicate that the estimation method is scientific and practical. Two problems are finally proposed to discuss for further improvement.
{"title":"Research on Estimation of Equivalent Working Time for Armored Vehicle Engine Based on Degradation Data","authors":"Yanhua Cao, Yong Li, Chun-liang Chen, Yiran Guo","doi":"10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021193","url":null,"abstract":"The working time of combat equipment’s engine, such as the diesel engine of armored vehicle, reflects its technical condition to a great degree. However, the identical use time under different external usage environments may reflect different technical conditions of equipment. But the residual life can be indirectly estimated more accurately by calculating equipment’s equivalent use time. Empirically speaking, the same values of degradation parameters usually reflect the same technical conditions of the equipment when it even worked under different external environments. The service life of the same type of equipment under the same usage environments is similar. In this paper, the determination principle and measurement method of the technical parameters is put forward firstly. Then, the neural network’s advantages in prediction field are put forward and the method of regression prediction with neural network is chosen to estimate the equivalent working time of diesel engine of armored vehicle. The standard external usage environments are specified so as to change the ordinary working time into its equivalent. Taking a certain type of armored equipment diesel engine as an example, the prediction model is built based on several degradation parameters. Then the model is tested and verified by actual usage data. The calculation results indicate that the estimation method is scientific and practical. Two problems are finally proposed to discuss for further improvement.","PeriodicalId":233855,"journal":{"name":"2019 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering (QR2MSE)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134097426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
For the purpose of monitoring the mechanical equipment in real time, it is of significant potential to collect and transmit mechanical vibration signal through the use of wireless technology. Subjected to the limitation of the narrow bandwidth of the wireless transmission, coupled with the high sampling frequency required by the mechanical vibration signal, it is deemed as quite essential to carry out the on-chip feature extraction or data compression on the sensor node prior to transmitting. The current paper provides a summary of the existing research status from the aspects of sensor node design, on-chip feature extraction and data compression and reconstruction of mechanical vibration signal. Thereafter, we not only summarize but also forecast the research in this field. The current paper is expected to be possibly used as a reference for subsequent research.
{"title":"Wireless Acquisition and Transmission of Mechanical Vibration Signal: A Review","authors":"Yunfei Ma, Xisheng Jia, Guanglong Wang, Huajun Bai, Chiming Guo, Xudong Zhao","doi":"10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021138","url":null,"abstract":"For the purpose of monitoring the mechanical equipment in real time, it is of significant potential to collect and transmit mechanical vibration signal through the use of wireless technology. Subjected to the limitation of the narrow bandwidth of the wireless transmission, coupled with the high sampling frequency required by the mechanical vibration signal, it is deemed as quite essential to carry out the on-chip feature extraction or data compression on the sensor node prior to transmitting. The current paper provides a summary of the existing research status from the aspects of sensor node design, on-chip feature extraction and data compression and reconstruction of mechanical vibration signal. Thereafter, we not only summarize but also forecast the research in this field. The current paper is expected to be possibly used as a reference for subsequent research.","PeriodicalId":233855,"journal":{"name":"2019 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering (QR2MSE)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125144971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Research on performance trend and life assessment of glass fiber reinforced composite in storage condition. Develop four different temperature of thermal oxidative aging test on glass fiber reinforced composite, detect impact property of composite regularly. Use life assessment method to deal with the test data and evaluate the trend of material property. Through calculation, we can get storage life of composite in tropical ocean climate and dry heat desert climate environment is from 14.99 to 31.26 years. Test result shows the composite has good storage performance. Its life could more than 14.99 years in atrocious tropical ocean climate. And the test and evaluate method is suitable for assessing the composite life.
{"title":"Storage Life Research on Glass Fiber Reinforced Composite","authors":"Yuan Chen, Wan-Jun Yang, Jun-Nian Li, Z. Qiao, Binzu Gao, Shi-Teng Long, Yu-qin Zhu, Shuai Wu","doi":"10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021115","url":null,"abstract":"Research on performance trend and life assessment of glass fiber reinforced composite in storage condition. Develop four different temperature of thermal oxidative aging test on glass fiber reinforced composite, detect impact property of composite regularly. Use life assessment method to deal with the test data and evaluate the trend of material property. Through calculation, we can get storage life of composite in tropical ocean climate and dry heat desert climate environment is from 14.99 to 31.26 years. Test result shows the composite has good storage performance. Its life could more than 14.99 years in atrocious tropical ocean climate. And the test and evaluate method is suitable for assessing the composite life.","PeriodicalId":233855,"journal":{"name":"2019 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering (QR2MSE)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134601768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Type-I censoring test has the advantage of time control which makes it widely used in the engineering practice. The outputs of the current Type-I censoring statistical algorithm are the total test time and the receiving number of failures. However, the total test time has already been settled by the test profile under many circumstances. Furthermore, the current Type-I censoring statistical algorithm is unable to evaluate the system reliability when the number of failure is zero during the system reliability test. Aiming at the problems above, a new Type-I censoring statistical algorithm was proposed to calculate the number of failures to receive the results of the reliability test considering the fixed total test time. And an evaluation method for zero-failure system reliability evaluation was developed. Then an assistant software was built to implement the algorithm. At last, two practical cases showed the importance of the receiving number of failures which should be calculated in the test design stage before the reliability test begins. And they also proved the new algorithm and the software is effective and feasible.
{"title":"A New Type-I Censoring Statistical Algorithm for the Reliability Test","authors":"X. Lee, Xiang-Zheng Meng, Xin Ji, Chang-Lei Zhang, Xiuyuan Tang, Yv-Han Wu","doi":"10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021218","url":null,"abstract":"The Type-I censoring test has the advantage of time control which makes it widely used in the engineering practice. The outputs of the current Type-I censoring statistical algorithm are the total test time and the receiving number of failures. However, the total test time has already been settled by the test profile under many circumstances. Furthermore, the current Type-I censoring statistical algorithm is unable to evaluate the system reliability when the number of failure is zero during the system reliability test. Aiming at the problems above, a new Type-I censoring statistical algorithm was proposed to calculate the number of failures to receive the results of the reliability test considering the fixed total test time. And an evaluation method for zero-failure system reliability evaluation was developed. Then an assistant software was built to implement the algorithm. At last, two practical cases showed the importance of the receiving number of failures which should be calculated in the test design stage before the reliability test begins. And they also proved the new algorithm and the software is effective and feasible.","PeriodicalId":233855,"journal":{"name":"2019 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering (QR2MSE)","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132209237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021145
Xu Xu, Zhi-gang Chen, Xinrong Zhong, Xiaolei Du, Zhichuan Zhao
Due to the problem that it is difficult to accurately extract and identify the hydraulic end fault of 2000 fracturing truck under complicated working conditions and high load environment, a variational mode decomposition (VMD) with deep belief network (DBN) is presented. Firstly, the variational mode decomposition is used to decompose the vibration signal collected by the hydraulic end of the fracturing vehicle into several stable intrinsic mode function (IMF) and obtain the spectrum of the reconstructed signal, which is the input of the deep belief network. Then, the deep belief network fault identification model was constructed by using the back-propagation algorithm and, the pre-training and feature learning of input spectrum are carried out, the DBN-based fault feature adaptive analysis and fault state intelligent identification is completed, realizing the fault diagnosis of the hydraulic end of the fracturing truck. The results show that the adaptive characteristic of the DBN method can effectively improve the accuracy of fault state recognition.
{"title":"Fault Diagnosis of Fracturing Truck Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Deep Belief Network","authors":"Xu Xu, Zhi-gang Chen, Xinrong Zhong, Xiaolei Du, Zhichuan Zhao","doi":"10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021145","url":null,"abstract":"Due to the problem that it is difficult to accurately extract and identify the hydraulic end fault of 2000 fracturing truck under complicated working conditions and high load environment, a variational mode decomposition (VMD) with deep belief network (DBN) is presented. Firstly, the variational mode decomposition is used to decompose the vibration signal collected by the hydraulic end of the fracturing vehicle into several stable intrinsic mode function (IMF) and obtain the spectrum of the reconstructed signal, which is the input of the deep belief network. Then, the deep belief network fault identification model was constructed by using the back-propagation algorithm and, the pre-training and feature learning of input spectrum are carried out, the DBN-based fault feature adaptive analysis and fault state intelligent identification is completed, realizing the fault diagnosis of the hydraulic end of the fracturing truck. The results show that the adaptive characteristic of the DBN method can effectively improve the accuracy of fault state recognition.","PeriodicalId":233855,"journal":{"name":"2019 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering (QR2MSE)","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133271253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021124
Xue Lu, Si-Jie Jiang, Yan-Bi Wang, Bo Huang, Chuan Jiang
This paper aims to give a comprehensive evaluation of equipment competitive development stage based on TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Solution) method and temporal operator. Competitive development of equipment is a new trend in the current national military-civilian integration strategy. In the past, the evaluation of equipment in the competitive development stage was mostly based on the historical information provided by suppliers, rather than on objective information. In the competitive development stage, equipment generally needs to do three major tests: Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) test, environment test and reliability test. Therefore, experts can be used to objectively evaluate the test results. Then, the TOPSIS method and temporal operator are combined to process the evaluation information, and the comprehensive evaluation factor of the equipment is obtained by considering the cost of the equipment. Case study shows that the method has strong engineering practicability.
基于TOPSIS (Order Preference by Similarity to Solution)方法和时间算子对装备竞争发展阶段进行综合评价。装备竞争性发展是当前国家军民融合战略的新趋势。过去对处于竞争发展阶段的设备进行评价，大多是基于供应商提供的历史信息，而不是客观信息。在竞争性开发阶段，设备一般需要做三大测试:电磁兼容性(EMC)测试、环境测试和可靠性测试。因此，可以利用专家对试验结果进行客观评价。然后，结合TOPSIS法和时间算子对评价信息进行处理，在考虑设备成本的情况下得到设备的综合评价因子;实例分析表明，该方法具有较强的工程实用性。
{"title":"Study on Comprehensive Evaluation of Supplier Selection in Equipment Competitive Development","authors":"Xue Lu, Si-Jie Jiang, Yan-Bi Wang, Bo Huang, Chuan Jiang","doi":"10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021124","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to give a comprehensive evaluation of equipment competitive development stage based on TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Solution) method and temporal operator. Competitive development of equipment is a new trend in the current national military-civilian integration strategy. In the past, the evaluation of equipment in the competitive development stage was mostly based on the historical information provided by suppliers, rather than on objective information. In the competitive development stage, equipment generally needs to do three major tests: Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) test, environment test and reliability test. Therefore, experts can be used to objectively evaluate the test results. Then, the TOPSIS method and temporal operator are combined to process the evaluation information, and the comprehensive evaluation factor of the equipment is obtained by considering the cost of the equipment. Case study shows that the method has strong engineering practicability.","PeriodicalId":233855,"journal":{"name":"2019 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering (QR2MSE)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122012760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021183
Lulu Jia, Yi Ren, Dezhen Yang
With the development of technology, engineering systems are growing rapidly in their scale and complexity, which increases the severity of accidents and the urgency of risk assessment. Although lots of efforts have been done in risk analysis, their applications are limited when complex systems present the characteristic of multi-domain information synthesis and complete risk data is hard to obtain. To solve these problems, a risk assessment method based on DUCGs (Dynamical Uncertain Causality Graphs) is presented in this paper. With the advantage of DUCGs’ flexibility, high tolerance for information’s inaccuracy and incomplete information processing ability, the method based on DUCGs has lots of advantages: (1) Risk models in different fields can be established separately and the whole model can be obtained by merging the nodes shared by different models, which allow analysts to establish their risk model respectively. (2) Different from DBNs (Dynamic Bayesian Network) that need complete probability information, DUCGs only need probabilities related to risk status and they can alleviate the information incomplete problem to some extent. (3) The probability matrixes used in DUCGs are more consistent with people’s cognitive habits, which makes it friendlier for analysts and promotes the integration of expert experience and data. Finally, the practicality and superiority of DUCGs are verified in a case study.
{"title":"The Methodology of Dynamical Uncertain Causality Graph for Risk Assessment","authors":"Lulu Jia, Yi Ren, Dezhen Yang","doi":"10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/QR2MSE46217.2019.9021183","url":null,"abstract":"With the development of technology, engineering systems are growing rapidly in their scale and complexity, which increases the severity of accidents and the urgency of risk assessment. Although lots of efforts have been done in risk analysis, their applications are limited when complex systems present the characteristic of multi-domain information synthesis and complete risk data is hard to obtain. To solve these problems, a risk assessment method based on DUCGs (Dynamical Uncertain Causality Graphs) is presented in this paper. With the advantage of DUCGs’ flexibility, high tolerance for information’s inaccuracy and incomplete information processing ability, the method based on DUCGs has lots of advantages: (1) Risk models in different fields can be established separately and the whole model can be obtained by merging the nodes shared by different models, which allow analysts to establish their risk model respectively. (2) Different from DBNs (Dynamic Bayesian Network) that need complete probability information, DUCGs only need probabilities related to risk status and they can alleviate the information incomplete problem to some extent. (3) The probability matrixes used in DUCGs are more consistent with people’s cognitive habits, which makes it friendlier for analysts and promotes the integration of expert experience and data. Finally, the practicality and superiority of DUCGs are verified in a case study.","PeriodicalId":233855,"journal":{"name":"2019 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering (QR2MSE)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121444959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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