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The flow of peoples: international migration as a revolutionary force 人口流动:作为革命力量的国际移民
Pub Date : 2008-06-30 DOI: 10.46631/jefas.2008.v13n24.01
J. Chesnais
History shows that migration usually moves from areas where population is growing fast to regions where this increase is slower. At present, immigration from poor regions to richer coun tries outstrips emigration from developed countries. A century ago in Europe and now in the poorest countries, migration has relieved tensions bred by declining mortality and accelerating popula tion growth. The map of international migration changes from decade to decade as each country’s demographic transition matures. Although historical migration fl ows still continue, this will not lead to a demographic explosion as fertility rates have declined signifi cantly and aging population increases all over the world. World population is estimated to remain stagnant at around 8 thousand million before it decreases slowly through this century. Thus, migration raises the challenge of a global multiethnic society.
历史表明,移民通常是从人口增长较快的地区向人口增长较慢的地区迁移。目前,从贫穷地区向富裕国家的移民超过了从发达国家的移民。一个世纪前的欧洲和现在最贫穷的国家,移民缓解了因死亡率下降和人口加速增长而产生的紧张局势。随着每个国家人口结构转型的成熟,国际移民地图每十年都在变化。尽管历史上的移民流动仍在继续,但这不会导致人口爆炸,因为全世界的生育率已经显著下降,老龄化人口正在增加。据估计,世界人口在本世纪缓慢减少之前,将保持在80亿左右的停滞状态。因此,移民提出了全球多民族社会的挑战。
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引用次数: 1
Developing economies and the Asia-Pacific economic cooperation forum-APEC: intrabloc trade and attraction of foreign direct investment from region 发展中经济体与亚太经合组织:区域内贸易和吸引区域内外国直接投资
Pub Date : 2008-06-01 DOI: 10.46631/jefas.2008.v13n24.05
Christian Rodríguez
Since one of the main goals of the APEC is to facilitate the international trade and investments among its members, it is said that taking over APEC presidency (as Peru in 2008), will contribute to foster trade and attract investments from member economies. But, is there any pattern which allows quantifying the benefi ts resulting from this kind of commitment? After evaluating the trade statistics of APEC developing economies ever since the creation of the Forum in 1989, it can be inferred that presiding APEC does not guarantee an increase in its trade with the rest of APEC economies. Right after hosting the summit, its imports grow higher compared with its exports, but there is not any conclusive information on the growth of foreign direct investment (FDI). Nevertheless, even though the growth of trade and FDI attraction from APEC other member economies does not rely exclusively on taking over the Forum’s Presidency, this commitment is a unique opportunity to promote trade with the planet’s most important economic bloc.
由于亚太经合组织的主要目标之一是促进其成员之间的国际贸易和投资,据说接任亚太经合组织轮值主席国(2008年接替秘鲁)将有助于促进贸易和吸引成员经济体的投资。但是,有没有一种模式可以量化这种承诺所带来的好处呢?在对APEC自1989年成立以来发展中经济体的贸易统计数据进行评估后,可以推断,主持APEC并不能保证其与APEC其他经济体的贸易增长。在举行峰会后,进口比出口增长得更快,但没有关于外国直接投资(FDI)增长的确切信息。然而,尽管亚太经合组织其他成员经济体的贸易增长和吸引的外国直接投资并不完全依赖于担任论坛主席,但这一承诺是促进与这个地球上最重要的经济集团贸易的独特机会。
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引用次数: 2
Comercio potencial de servicios del Perú con el Asia Pacífico 秘鲁与亚太地区潜在的服务贸易
Pub Date : 2008-06-01 DOI: 10.46631/jefas.2008.v13n24.06
Pedro Miguel Carazas
Services account for 47% of global output and, as per several studies conducted, the liberalization of their trade brings more advantages than trade in goods. Despite of this fact, there has been little research on the subject, and the defi nition of services has remained controversial. Peru sticks to global trend, as services represent 65% of GDP and 75% of EAP. Moreover, the development of tertiary sector is essential to attain a hub position. This paper is aimed at identifying the potential trade in services with Asia Pacifi c, based on trade and liberalization indicators –this region accounts for nearly 18% of current world trade–. It considers the commercial behavior of Peru, as well as that of Chile and Colombia, which are regarded as competitors in their condition of «access platform» to the Andean sub region. It is concluded that there are many possibilities to intensify relations with Asia Pacifi c and policy recommendations that should be taken into account by the Peruvian foreign policy are provided.
服务业占全球产出的47%,根据几项研究,服务业贸易自由化比货物贸易带来的好处更多。尽管如此,关于这个问题的研究很少,服务的定义也一直存在争议。秘鲁遵循全球趋势,服务业占GDP的65%,占EAP的75%。此外,第三产业的发展对取得枢纽地位至关重要。本文旨在根据贸易和自由化指标(该地区占当前世界贸易的近18%)确定与亚太地区的潜在服务贸易。它考虑了秘鲁的商业行为,以及智利和哥伦比亚的商业行为,这些国家在进入安第斯次区域的“平台”条件下被视为竞争对手。结论是,有许多加强与亚太关系的可能性,并提出了秘鲁外交政策应考虑到的政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
Competitividad sostenible de la pequeña empresa: un modelo de promoción de capacidades endógenas para promover ventajas competitivas sostenibles y alta productividad 小企业的可持续竞争力:促进内生能力以促进可持续竞争优势和高生产率的模式
Pub Date : 2008-06-01 DOI: 10.46631/jefas.2008.v13n24.04
Braulio Vargas, Carlos del Castillo
In the past three decades, the competitiveness and productivity of the small enterprise have been favored by the government, business action and technical cooperation, which have made signifi cant contributions regarding promotion, development and provision of technical assistance. In the developing economies of the Asia Pacifi c region, these efforts are explained by the fact that the small enterprise contributes without question, to job generation, local economic dynamics, collective effi ciency of business network, and economic growth. In the economies of the region, most contributions have been channeled through public policies with a focus on capacity building. Nevertheless, according to preliminary studies in the main business clusters in Peru, the government’s promotion actions have not had a steady effect in competitiveness and productivity. Evidence suggests that business development services have a limited effect as they depend solely on external interventions. In contrast, successful entrepreneurship relies more on endogenous capacities. This article introduces a framework of promotion of the productivity and sustained competitiveness in the small enterprise, laying stress on endogenous capacities and an effi cient arrangement of external interventions.
在过去三十年中,小企业的竞争力和生产力受到政府、商业行动和技术合作的青睐,它们在促进、发展和提供技术援助方面作出了重大贡献。在亚太区域的发展中经济体中,这些努力的原因是小企业无疑对创造就业机会、地方经济活力、商业网络的集体效率和经济增长作出了贡献。在本区域各经济体中,大部分捐款都是通过侧重于能力建设的公共政策提供的。然而,根据对秘鲁主要商业集群的初步研究,政府的促进行动并没有对竞争力和生产力产生稳定的影响。有证据表明,业务发展服务的效果有限,因为它们完全依赖外部干预。相比之下,成功的创业更多地依赖于内生能力。本文介绍了一个促进小企业生产力和持续竞争力的框架,强调内生能力和有效安排外部干预。
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引用次数: 8
La construcción del desarrollo desde los gobiernos sub nacionales: una visión desde la perspectiva de la gestión ambiental descentralizada 地方政府的发展建设:分权环境管理视角下的愿景
Pub Date : 2007-12-01 DOI: 10.46631/jefas.2007.v12n23.02
Eduardo Dios Alemán
The transition of the Peruvian political system to decentralization has uncovered a number of factors that condition national development although by bringing the State closer to the people, the contrary should be expected. These elements underlie the existing culture of government and the ordinary citizen’s so that despite specifi c opportunities to foster development, they are not revealed in human development indicators but only on economic indicators. One of these elements is the natural reaction to changes in the power structure existing inside the centralist system that have been revealed by the slow transfer of competencies from the central to the sub-national governments. Another such element is the limited ability of sub-national governments that fail to respond to the challenge of demonstrating better competencies to address the citizens’ demands.
秘鲁政治制度向权力下放的过渡揭示了一些制约国家发展的因素,虽然由于使国家更接近人民,应该预料到相反的情况。这些因素是政府和普通公民现有文化的基础,因此,尽管有促进发展的具体机会,但它们没有显示在人类发展指标中,而只显示在经济指标中。其中一个因素是对中央集权体制内部权力结构变化的自然反应,这种变化已经从中央政府向地方政府缓慢的权力转移中显露出来。另一个这样的因素是地方政府的能力有限,它们未能应对挑战,展示出更好的能力来满足公民的需求。
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引用次数: 0
La administración del desarrollo sostenible en el contexto de la economía social de mercado 在社会市场经济的背景下管理可持续发展
Pub Date : 2007-12-01 DOI: 10.46631/jefas.2007.v12n23.04
José Carlos Vera
The theory of market social economy appears neatly when dealing with environmental conservation and the search for the wellbeing of the underprivileged. These concepts have been used in various countries and today it is possible to see countries that carefully watch over their environment and have achieved signifi cant social balance. Peru has not been alien to environmental and social concepts and for more than four decades has establishes organizations, designed policies and enacted laws to look at these issues. However, the outcomes have been limited. Among the reasons that explain the ineffectiveness of such regulations and institutions perhaps among the most important are the lack of effective oversight and control over economic agents, and an ineffi cient design of the ways to attain goals through regulations and institutions. For that reason, this paper proposes policy options to correct market outcomes and a way to build institutions that will allow to accomplish the desired goals
市场社会经济理论在处理环境保护和为弱势群体谋福利的问题时显得十分巧妙。这些概念已经在不同的国家使用,今天有可能看到一些国家仔细观察他们的环境,并取得了显著的社会平衡。秘鲁对环境和社会概念并不陌生,四十多年来建立了组织,制定了政策并颁布了法律来研究这些问题。然而,结果是有限的。在解释这些法规和制度无效的原因中,也许最重要的原因之一是缺乏对经济主体的有效监督和控制,以及通过法规和制度实现目标的方式设计效率低下。因此,本文提出了纠正市场结果的政策选择,以及建立能够实现预期目标的制度的方法
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引用次数: 1
Project sistem, un modelo de gestión para construir el desarrollo sostenible 项目系统,建设可持续发展的管理模式
Pub Date : 2007-12-01 DOI: 10.46631/jefas.2007.v12n23.03
Federico Dejo
This paper shows the advantages of the Scorecard Project System as a computer integrated tool to simplify, speed up and streamline the design and monitoring of diagnosis studies, plans and projects included in a strategic view to reach sustainable development. The paper shows the characteristics and advantages of each such tool and establishes their sequence in the feedback cycle for territorial management, whether peasant communities, local governments, regional governments of companies with a social responsibility mission.
本文展示了记分卡项目系统作为一种计算机集成工具的优势,它可以简化、加快和简化诊断研究、计划和项目的设计和监测,以实现可持续发展的战略观点。本文展示了每种工具的特点和优势,并建立了它们在区域管理反馈循环中的顺序,无论是农民社区、地方政府、区域政府还是具有社会责任使命的公司。
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引用次数: 0
La necesidad de incorporar el cambio climático en las políticas de desarrollo 将气候变化纳入发展政策的必要性
Pub Date : 2007-12-01 DOI: 10.46631/jefas.2007.v12n23.05
Julio García Vargas
Climate change is considered the most important global threat facing the human race in this century. Due to the excessive emission of greenhouse gases, the global average temperature is increasing thus altering climate systems and raising the sea level. Although developing countries do not contribute signifi cantly to these emissions, they suffer most of their effects. Peru is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because most of its resources and productive factors such as fi shing, agriculture and transport are climate sensitive. Combined with the challenge and opportunity of ensuring sustainable development in a complex territory in terms of land and population, this vulnerability forces us to include considerations in national policies aimed at reducing the risk of disasters and climate change adaptation. We now have the Hyogo Framework for Action approved by 168 countries.
气候变化被认为是本世纪人类面临的最重要的全球性威胁。由于温室气体的过度排放,全球平均温度正在升高,从而改变了气候系统并使海平面上升。虽然发展中国家对这些排放的贡献不大,但它们承受的影响最大。秘鲁特别容易受到气候变化的影响,因为其大部分资源和生产要素,如渔业、农业和运输,都对气候敏感。再加上在土地和人口方面复杂的领土上确保可持续发展的挑战和机遇,这种脆弱性迫使我们在旨在减少灾害风险和适应气候变化的国家政策中纳入考虑因素。我们现在有168个国家批准了《兵库行动框架》。
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引用次数: 0
Método de las relaciones casuales para la planificación del desarrollo sostenible. Aplicación en pulpochoque 可持续发展规划中的偶然关系方法。pulpochoque的应用
Pub Date : 2007-12-01 DOI: 10.46631/jefas.2007.v12n23.08
David Solano
The barrires to a society´s sustainable development are typically the result of many problem-cause interactions, which may be of an economic, socio-cultural, technological or political nature. In order to fi nd proper solutions, it is important to differentiate between problem-cause and problemresult relations; only with this method will it be possible to ensure sustainability. The Cause Relation Method is a tool that identifi es causes and consequences starting with the relations between problems. This method may be used to generate participatory decisions that foster the integrated action of a community to address the constraints to its development.
一个社会可持续发展的障碍通常是许多因问题而起的相互作用的结果,这些相互作用可能是经济、社会文化、技术或政治性质的。为了找到合适的解决方案,重要的是要区分问题原因和问题结果的关系;只有采用这种方法,才有可能确保可持续性。原因关系法是一种从问题之间的关系开始识别原因和后果的工具。这种方法可用于产生参与性决定,促进社区采取综合行动,解决制约其发展的因素。
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引用次数: 0
Recursos actuales y necesidades futuras: el caso de Santiaguito 当前资源和未来需求:圣地亚哥案例
Pub Date : 2007-12-01 DOI: 10.46631/jefas.2007.v12n23.09
Carlos del Castillo
Santiaguito is a district in Peru’s northern Andes. In this paper we identify a number of opportunities to channel efforts towards its development. However, and as it is often the case, only the most explicit and obvious variables guide the development planning and management cycle. A non factual prospective analysis exercise allows to imagine a future situation that can be totally different from the originally proposed long-term vision. The available information is used with certain diagnosis and planning tools and then the outcome is compared with reality and hypothesis for the future.
圣地亚吉托是秘鲁安第斯山脉北部的一个地区。在本文中,我们确定了若干机会来引导其发展。然而,通常情况下,只有最明确和最明显的变量指导开发计划和管理周期。一个非事实的前瞻性分析练习允许想象一个未来的情况,可以完全不同于最初提出的长期愿景。可利用的信息与某些诊断和规划工具一起使用,然后将结果与现实和对未来的假设进行比较。
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引用次数: 0
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Cuadernos de difusión
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