Global Environmental Change最新文献_第8页

Strategic implication of sustainability practices and corporate performance under competitive landscape; An empirical investigation 竞争格局下可持续发展实践与企业绩效的战略含义实证调查

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103010

Umakanta Gartia, Rajesh Bhue, Ajaya Kumar Panda

Business success is now significantly shaped by combining competitive tactics and sustainability. The existing literature focuses on the effect of sustainability practices on corporate financial outcomes, yet under different levels of product market competition (PMC) are largely unexplored. Thus, the present study aims to analyze the link between ‘sustainable practices’ and ‘firm financial performance’ (FFP), considering the moderating role of PMC. We analyzed a sample of 569 Indian listed firms from 2010 to 2022, using the Feasible Least Squares (FGLS) technique. The study reveals that sustainability practices enhance firm’s internal and external earnings. Further, the moderating role of PMC acts as a disciplinary mechanism. Under high PMC level, sustainability practices increase firm’s internal earnings, while with low PMC, sustainability practices do not carry significant influence. The present study also observed that only environmental practices negatively impacting firm’s internal earnings in non-competitive environments. Furthermore, PMC does not influence the link between sustainability practices and external earnings. This finding validates and provides a robust result by addressing the endogeneity concerns through ‘two-stage least squares’ (2SLS) method and different post-diagnostic tests. The findings complement the deterrence hypothesis and stakeholder theory of corporate disclosure by integrating PMC with sustainability practices and FFP. The firm should strategically align the adoption of sustainability practices with competitive forces to enhance FFP, strengthen market assurance, and maintain long-run value creation. The study underscores the significance of sustainability practices as a strategic tool in competitive markets. It offers theoretical and practical implications for corporate decision-makers, investors, policymakers and academics by formulating effective strategies and policies that develop resilience under competitive environments while balancing short-time gains and long-run performance.

如今，商业成功在很大程度上取决于竞争策略和可持续性的结合。现有文献主要关注可持续性实践对企业财务结果的影响，但在不同水平的产品市场竞争（PMC）下，这些文献大多未被探索。因此，本研究旨在分析“可持续实践”与“企业财务绩效”（FFP）之间的联系，并考虑PMC的调节作用。本文采用可行最小二乘法（FGLS）分析了2010年至2022年间569家印度上市公司的样本。研究表明，可持续发展实践提高了企业的内部和外部收益。此外，PMC的调节作用是一种惩戒机制。在高PMC水平下，可持续发展实践对企业内部盈余的影响显著，而在低PMC水平下，可持续发展实践对企业内部盈余的影响不显著。本研究还观察到，在非竞争环境中，只有环境实践对企业的内部收益产生负面影响。此外，PMC并不影响可持续性实践与外部收益之间的联系。这一发现通过“两阶段最小二乘法”（2SLS）方法和不同的诊断后测试解决了内生性问题，从而验证并提供了稳健的结果。研究结果通过将PMC与可持续性实践和FFP相结合，对公司信息披露的威慑假设和利益相关者理论进行了补充。公司应在战略上将可持续性实践的采用与竞争力量结合起来，以提高FFP，加强市场保障，并保持长期价值创造。该研究强调了可持续性实践作为竞争市场战略工具的重要性。它通过制定有效的战略和政策，在竞争环境中发展弹性，同时平衡短期收益和长期绩效，为企业决策者、投资者、政策制定者和学者提供了理论和实践意义。

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引用次数: 0

The history of a + 3 °C future: Global and regional drivers of greenhouse gas emissions (1820–2050) 未来+ 3°C的历史：温室气体排放的全球和区域驱动因素（1820-2050）

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103009

Juan Infante-Amate , Emiliano Travieso , Eduardo Aguilera

Identifying the socio-economic drivers behind greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to design mitigation policies. Existing studies predominantly analyze short-term CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels, neglecting long-term trends and other GHGs. We examine the drivers of all greenhouse gas emissions between 1820–2050 globally and regionally. The Industrial Revolution triggered sustained emission growth worldwide—initially through fossil fuel use in industrialized economies but also as a result of agricultural expansion and deforestation. Globally, technological innovation and energy mix changes prevented 31 (17–42) Gt CO₂e emissions over two centuries. Yet these gains were dwarfed by 81 (64–97) Gt CO₂e resulting from economic expansion, with regional drivers diverging sharply: population growth dominated in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, while rising affluence was the main driver of emissions elsewhere. Meeting climate targets now requires the carbon intensity of GDP to decline 3 times faster than the global best 30-year historical rate (–2.25 % per year), which has not improved over the past five decades. Failing such an unprecedented technological change or a substantial contraction of the global economy, by 2050 global mean surface temperatures will rise more than 3 °C above pre-industrial levels.

确定温室气体排放背后的社会经济驱动因素对于制定缓解政策至关重要。现有的研究主要分析化石燃料的短期二氧化碳排放，而忽略了长期趋势和其他温室气体。我们研究了1820-2050年间全球和区域所有温室气体排放的驱动因素。工业革命引发了全球持续的排放增长——最初是由于工业化经济体使用化石燃料，但也由于农业扩张和森林砍伐。在全球范围内，两个世纪以来，技术创新和能源结构变化阻止了31亿吨二氧化碳当量的排放。然而，与经济扩张产生的81亿吨（64-97亿吨）二氧化碳当量相比，这些收益相形见绌，区域驱动因素差异很大：人口增长在拉丁美洲和撒哈拉以南非洲占主导地位，而富裕程度的提高是其他地区排放的主要驱动因素。要实现气候目标，GDP碳强度的下降速度必须比全球30年历史最佳速度（每年- 2.25%）快3倍，而过去50年这一速度并没有改善。如果没有这种前所未有的技术变革或全球经济大幅收缩，到2050年，全球平均地表温度将比工业化前水平上升3°C以上。

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引用次数: 0

The Politics of Sustainable Finance for Forests: Interests, beliefs and advocacy coalitions shaping forest sustainability criteria in the making of the EU Taxonomy 森林可持续金融的政治：利益、信念和倡导联盟在制定欧盟分类标准中塑造森林可持续性标准

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103001

A. Begemann , C. Dolriis , A. Onatunji , C. Chimisso , G. Winkel

The EU’s sustainable finance regulation classifying sustainable economic activities — known as “taxonomy” in short — has made headlines due to controversies about what can be considered a sustainable investment, and what not. This study investigates the evolution of advocacy coalitions and their strategies in the development of the taxonomy’s forestry criteria. It is built on an interpretive process tracing, involving 46 expert interviews conducted in 2019, 2021 and 2022, and an extensive document analysis. Our findings illustrate a complex process that is connected to a diversity of sectoral policies. This cross-sectoral nature of the policy process enables the emergence of cross-sectoral alliances, highlighting strikingly different policy beliefs and economic as well as bureaucratic/political interests connected to these. Owing to a rich set of strategies employed, and deals made at different policy levels, as well as an overall lack of transparency, the proclaimed “science-based” decision-making is de facto turned into a highly contested political minefield. Science – insofar involved – has contributed to the legitimisation of divergent beliefs rather than mediate among them. We conclude by arguing that the taxonomy’s potential to globally influence the regulation of sustainable finance as a “gold standard” is questionable because of the ambiguity resulting from the political struggle.

欧盟对可持续经济活动进行分类的可持续金融监管——简称“分类法”——由于关于什么可以被视为可持续投资、什么不能被视为可持续投资的争议而成为头条新闻。本研究调查了倡导联盟的演变及其在分类法林业标准发展中的策略。它建立在解释性过程追踪的基础上，涉及2019年、2021年和2022年进行的46次专家访谈，以及广泛的文件分析。我们的研究结果表明，这是一个与多种部门政策相关的复杂过程。这种政策过程的跨部门性质使跨部门联盟得以出现，突出了截然不同的政策信念以及与之相关的经济和官僚/政治利益。由于采用了一套丰富的战略，在不同的政策层面达成了协议，以及总体上缺乏透明度，所谓的“基于科学的”决策实际上变成了一个高度竞争的政治雷区。科学——就其参与程度而言——促成了不同信仰的合法化，而不是在它们之间进行调解。我们的结论是，由于政治斗争造成的模糊性，分类法作为“黄金标准”在全球范围内影响可持续金融监管的潜力值得怀疑。

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引用次数: 0

Why has the Brazilian Cerrado been left behind by voluntary environmental policies? 为什么巴西塞拉多被自愿性环境政策抛在了后面？

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103005

Joyce Brandão , Fatima Cristina Cardoso , Rachael Garrett

The expansion of soy production has been a deforestation driver in Brazil in both the Amazon and the highly biodiverse Cerrado savannah ecosystem. To tackle this problem the soy industry implemented a sector-wide zero-deforestation policy in 2006 in the Amazon called the Soy Moratorium. The Soy Moratorium sharply reduced the soy-driven deforestation in the Amazon. However, to date, despite substantial soy deforestation, the neighbouring Cerrado remains unprotected. Here we ask why no comparable zero-deforestation agreement was implemented in the Cerrado. To answer this question, we integrated theory on policy adoption and selection from the voluntary environmental policy literature with theory on policy process and feasibility from public policy, political economy, and organizational theory. This expanded framework enabled us to better understand how historical, political and geographical contextual factors shaped the differing policy adoption outcomes in the Amazon and Cerrado. We then conducted 26 in-depth interviews, including with key private sector decision-makers on policy adoption to understand the relative importance of different potential factors. We found that the differences in public awareness, national politics and narratives, changes in trade relationships, leadership and sunk investments influenced why an agreement emerged in the Amazon and not the Cerrado. Despite these circumstances, a new political window for Cerrado conservation policies has recently emerged with Brazil’s political shifts to a left-centre coalition and efforts to extend new due-diligence deforestation regulations to other wooded lands, including the Cerrado.

大豆生产的扩大已经成为巴西亚马逊和生物多样性丰富的塞拉多大草原生态系统森林砍伐的驱动因素。为了解决这个问题，大豆行业于2006年在亚马逊地区实施了一项全行业的零砍伐政策，称为“大豆禁令”。大豆禁令大大减少了亚马逊地区因大豆而导致的森林砍伐。然而，迄今为止，尽管大量砍伐大豆，邻近的塞拉多仍未受到保护。在这里，我们要问为什么塞拉多没有实施类似的零森林砍伐协议。为了回答这个问题，我们将自愿性环境政策文献中的政策采纳和选择理论与公共政策、政治经济学和组织理论中的政策过程和可行性理论结合起来。这个扩展的框架使我们能够更好地理解历史、政治和地理背景因素如何影响亚马逊和塞拉多不同的政策采用结果。然后，我们进行了26次深度访谈，包括与主要私营部门决策者就政策采用进行访谈，以了解不同潜在因素的相对重要性。我们发现，公众意识、国家政治和叙事方面的差异、贸易关系的变化、领导力和沉没的投资影响了协议在亚马逊而不是塞拉多地区达成的原因。尽管如此，随着巴西政治转向左中联盟，并努力将新的尽职调查森林砍伐法规扩展到包括塞拉多在内的其他林地，塞拉多保护政策的新政治窗口最近出现了。

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引用次数: 0

Just social-ecological tipping scales: A mid-range social theory of change in coal and carbon intensive regions 社会生态临界点：煤炭和碳密集地区变化的中等社会理论

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103000

Jenny Lieu , Diana Mangalagiu , Amanda Martínez-Reyes , Mauro Sarrica

Energy transitions are often studied using socio-technical transitions, just transitions and more recently, social-ecological tipping points (SETPs). While they can be important starting points for conceptualising large-scale systemic change, when applied within a regional context, they often fail to appropriately explain change. SETP concept is receiving increasing attention, but its heuristic value still requires further empirical validation. While many energy transitions are still in a pre-tipping point phase, the lack of empirically validated tipping points raises a question of applicability if these frameworks are unable to capture change at the regional scale. In this paper, we introduce a new inductive framework, Just Social-Ecological Tipping Scales (JSETS), based on cross-case analysis in coal and carbon-intensive regions (CCIRs). The framework helps understanding systemic change in regional contexts by identifying transition states. We then analyse traits in these transition states by assessing enablers and barriers of triggering factors and actors over temporal and spatial scales as well as justice dimensions. This analysis helps us to identify cumulate changes leading to four tipping scales, which can move a region from one transition state to another. By identifying both transition states and tipping scales, we can anticipate the potential traits needed for a CCIR to move towards a just transformation.

能源转型通常使用社会技术转型、公正转型和最近的社会生态临界点（setp）来研究。虽然它们可以成为概念化大规模系统性变化的重要起点，但在区域范围内应用时，它们往往不能适当地解释变化。SETP概念受到越来越多的关注，但其启发式价值仍需要进一步的实证验证。虽然许多能源转型仍处于引爆点前阶段，但缺乏经验验证的引爆点，如果这些框架无法捕捉区域范围的变化，就会产生适用性问题。本文基于煤炭和碳密集地区（ccir）的交叉案例分析，引入了一个新的归纳框架——公正社会生态临界点（JSETS）。该框架通过识别过渡状态，有助于理解区域背景下的系统性变化。然后，我们通过评估触发因素和行为者在时间和空间尺度以及正义维度上的促成因素和障碍，分析这些过渡状态的特征。这种分析帮助我们确定导致四个临界点的累积变化，这些临界点可以将一个区域从一个过渡状态移动到另一个过渡状态。通过识别过渡状态和临界点，我们可以预测CCIR走向公正转变所需的潜在特征。

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引用次数: 0

Transformations to sustainability: Processes, practices, and pathways 向可持续发展的转变：过程、实践和途径

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103007

Fabio de Castro , Marjo de Theije , Akriti Jain , W.Neil Adger

Transformations of economies, norms and social relations are required to achieve the sustainability of earth systems as part of wider sustainability. This Special Issue examines how sustainability transformations are shaped by processes, practices, and pathways as sets of collective action. The contributions showcase interdisciplinary research, empirical studies, and community engagement with may arguing that such holistic approaches are essential to achieving sustainable transformations. Here we highlight both critical barriers, such as economic constraints, political resistance, and justice conflicts, and mechanisms that enable systemic change, such as scaling up, institutionalizing sustainability innovations, strengthening multi-level governance, and participatory decision-making. Future research requires on understanding the stages and scales of transformation, identifying power dynamics and governance structures that enable systemic change, and the importance of integrating co-produced knowledge into policymaking.

为了实现地球系统的可持续性，作为更广泛的可持续性的一部分，需要改变经济、规范和社会关系。本期特刊探讨了作为一系列集体行动的过程、实践和途径是如何塑造可持续转型的。这些贡献展示了跨学科研究、实证研究和社区参与，许多人认为这种整体方法对于实现可持续转型至关重要。在这里，我们强调了关键的障碍，如经济约束、政治阻力和正义冲突，以及实现系统性变革的机制，如规模化、制度化可持续性创新、加强多层次治理和参与性决策。未来的研究需要了解转型的阶段和规模，确定能够实现系统性变革的权力动态和治理结构，以及将共同生产的知识整合到政策制定中的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Navigating political uncertainty and mineral policy: Pathways to Global South’s environmental sustainability 应对政治不确定性和矿产政策：通往全球南方环境可持续性的途径

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103002

Yugang He

This article explores the relationship between political uncertainty and carbon emissions across 34 Global South countries from 2000 to 2023, uncovering key links between policy stability and environmental sustainability. By employing the year- and country-fixed effects model alongside generalized least squares with panel corrected standard errors, this analysis highlights the impact of political instability on environmental outcomes. Robustness checks—conducted via the generalized method of moments and a dynamic linear panel model—further confirm the consistency and reliability of the results. The findings reveal that political uncertainty significantly elevates carbon emissions and follows a nonlinear pattern: moderate political uncertainty tends to stimulate economic activity, resulting in higher emissions, while extreme uncertainty curtails economic activity, thereby reducing emissions. Moreover, a positive interaction between political uncertainty and mineral policy signals increased resource extraction in politically unstable settings. Conversely, interactions with technological innovation and energy transition display significant negative effects, suggesting that technological advancement and renewable energy adoption effectively counteract emissions growth under high political uncertainty. This study provides new insights into the distinct political and economic dynamics influencing environmental challenges in Global South countries, emphasizing the crucial role of technological innovation and energy transition in mitigating the environmental impacts of political instability.

本文探讨了2000年至2023年间34个南半球国家的政治不确定性与碳排放之间的关系，揭示了政策稳定性与环境可持续性之间的关键联系。通过采用年度和国家固定效应模型以及具有面板修正标准误差的广义最小二乘法，本分析强调了政治不稳定对环境结果的影响。通过广义矩量法和动态线性面板模型进行的鲁棒性检查进一步证实了结果的一致性和可靠性。研究结果表明，政治不确定性显著提高了碳排放，并遵循非线性模式：适度的政治不确定性往往会刺激经济活动，导致更高的排放，而极端的不确定性则会抑制经济活动，从而减少排放。此外，政治不确定性与矿物政策之间的积极相互作用表明，在政治不稳定的情况下，资源开采增加了。相反，与技术创新和能源转型的交互作用表现出显著的负向效应，表明技术进步和可再生能源的采用有效地抵消了高政治不确定性下的排放增长。本研究对影响全球南方国家环境挑战的独特政治和经济动态提供了新的见解，强调了技术创新和能源转型在减轻政治不稳定对环境的影响方面的关键作用。

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引用次数: 0

Transitioning to net Zero: Assessing the impacts on asset impairment, write-downs and the going concern of oil and gas companies operating in the UK 向净零排放过渡：评估在英国运营的石油和天然气公司对资产减值、减记和持续经营的影响

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103004

Hafez Abdo , Duncan Angwin , Hakim Ben Othman , Freeman Brobbey Owusu

In June 2019, the UK government legislated a net zero target by 2050. This will directly impact the UK oil and gas industry. This study reports perceptions of key oil and gas professionals regarding the impact of transitioning to net zero on impairment, values, write-downs, and going concern in the UK oil and gas industry, as well as required net-zero-related disclosures. Data were collected through 22 interviews, two written responses to our interview questions, and disclosures made by oil and gas companies in their annual reports. We use conservatism and stakeholder theory to inform our results. Our findings confirm there will be serious impacts of the transition to net zero on impairments, asset write-downs, and on the value and going concern of several oil and gas companies. However, these impacts will not fall equally across the industry, and it is likely therefore that stakeholders will be affected differently. Our results contribute, first, to the debate on the impacts of the transition to net zero on key accounting measures of oil and gas companies; second, we identify risks associated with the transition to net zero for these companies and their stakeholders, and we classify the at-risk oil and gas companies operating in the UK; third, we present a collection of disclosure items deemed necessary by our interviewees. Our specified disclosure items may complement those of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and the Transition Plan Taskforce (TPT).

2019年6月，英国政府制定了到2050年实现净零排放的目标。这将直接影响英国的石油和天然气行业。本研究报告了主要油气专业人士对英国油气行业向净零转型对减值、价值、减记和持续经营的影响的看法，以及所需的净零相关披露。数据通过22次访谈、对访谈问题的两次书面回复以及油气公司在其年度报告中披露的信息收集。我们使用保守主义和利益相关者理论来告知我们的结果。我们的研究结果证实，向净零的过渡将对减值、资产减记以及几家石油和天然气公司的价值和持续经营产生严重影响。然而，这些影响在整个行业中不会平均下降，因此利益相关者可能会受到不同的影响。首先，我们的研究结果有助于讨论向净零排放过渡对石油和天然气公司关键会计指标的影响；其次，我们确定了这些公司及其利益相关者向净零排放过渡的相关风险，并对在英国运营的风险石油和天然气公司进行了分类；第三，我们提供了一系列受访者认为必要的披露项目。我们指定的披露项目可以补充气候相关财务披露工作组（TCFD）和过渡计划工作组（TPT）的披露项目。

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引用次数: 0

Beyond ‘Not in my electoral Year’: Why do some elected officials oppose renewable energy projects? 超越“不在我的选举年”：为什么一些民选官员反对可再生能源项目？

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-04-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102998

Hugo Delcayre, Sébastien Bourdin

This study aimed to examine the reasons behind the wait-and-see and resistant attitudes of local elected officials regarding energy transition projects. Although there is consensus on the importance of renewable energy in combating climate change, its implementation at the local level often encounters opposition from several actors, including elected officials. This study identified the internal, external, and personal factors that influence this opposition by conducting semi-structured interviews with the French officials and stakeholders involved in the energy transition and by analysing the local and regional press. Our findings indicate that political strategies, regulatory complexities, and personal beliefs play significant roles in shaping officials’ decisions regarding energy transition projects. Furthermore, by proposing a typology of elected officials according to their modes of opposition, we offer insights to promote effective and sustainable local energy transitions.

本研究旨在探讨地方民选官员对能源转型项目持观望和抵制态度背后的原因。尽管人们对可再生能源在应对气候变化方面的重要性达成了共识，但在地方一级实施可再生能源往往会遭到包括民选官员在内的几个行动者的反对。本研究通过对参与能源转型的法国官员和利益相关者进行半结构化访谈，并通过分析当地和地区媒体，确定了影响这种反对意见的内部、外部和个人因素。我们的研究结果表明，政治策略、监管复杂性和个人信仰在塑造官员关于能源转型项目的决策方面发挥了重要作用。此外，通过根据他们的反对模式提出民选官员的类型学，我们为促进有效和可持续的当地能源转型提供了见解。

引用次数: 0

Assessing land use change trajectories following food insecurity shocks in 25 low- and middle-income countries 评估25个低收入和中等收入国家粮食不安全冲击后的土地利用变化轨迹

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102999

Evan Patrick, Van Butsic, Matthew D. Potts

Food insecurity is a perennial problem in much of the developing world, with gains against hunger backsliding in recent years and climate change predicted to accelerate this trend. Food insecurity is highly disruptive to rural livelihoods and can lead to dramatic shifts in food production strategies and resultant land use. However, studies to date have yet to outline the overarching patterns of land use change that can result from food insecurity. We elucidate the impact of food insecurity events between 2013 and 2020 in 25 low- and middle-income countries on resulting land use change and demographics. Using propensity score matching, we create a counterfactual and assess changes in forest cover, crop cover, population and nighttime luminosity between regions that experience food insecurity and comparable food-secure regions. Land use change theory, specifically the classical trajectories of agricultural intensification, land rent theory, and regime shifts help to explain observed land use trajectories. We find that food insecurity events lead to around a 4 % decline in population and a 3 % decline in cropped areas, alongside a 4 % increase in forest cover compared to control regions. Additionally, we show that drought-driven food insecurity drives impacts on land use and conflict-driven food insecurity shows greater impacts on population and nighttime luminosity. Food insecurity shocks result in an increase in population and crop cover in urban areas despite losses in adjoining rural land, suggesting that food insecurity drives local rural to urban migration. Furthermore, by assessing the impacts of discrete food insecurity events in three countries, we find that regional contexts mediate impacts by producing variable land use change trajectories.

粮食不安全是许多发展中国家的一个长期问题，近年来消除饥饿的成果出现倒退，预计气候变化将加速这一趋势。粮食不安全严重破坏农村生计，并可能导致粮食生产战略和由此产生的土地利用发生巨大变化。然而，迄今为止的研究尚未勾勒出粮食不安全可能导致的土地利用变化的总体模式。我们阐明了2013年至2020年间25个低收入和中等收入国家的粮食不安全事件对土地利用变化和人口结构的影响。利用倾向得分匹配，我们创建了一个反事实，并评估了经历粮食不安全地区和可比粮食安全地区之间森林覆盖、作物覆盖、人口和夜间亮度的变化。土地利用变化理论，特别是农业集约化的经典轨迹、地租理论和制度变迁有助于解释观察到的土地利用轨迹。我们发现，与对照区相比，粮食不安全事件导致人口减少约4%，种植面积减少约3%，同时森林覆盖率增加4%。此外，我们发现干旱驱动的粮食不安全会对土地利用产生影响，而冲突驱动的粮食不安全对人口和夜间亮度的影响更大。粮食不安全冲击导致城市地区人口和作物覆盖增加，尽管毗邻的农村土地有所损失，这表明粮食不安全促使当地农村人口向城市迁移。此外，通过评估三个国家离散粮食不安全事件的影响，我们发现区域背景通过产生可变的土地利用变化轨迹来调节影响。

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引用次数: 0