Global Environmental Change最新文献

In Somalia, extreme droughts, floods, and conflicts have generated a great wave of internally displaced persons (IDPs) involuntarily moving within the country’s boundaries. Despite increasing concerns about the IDP problem, we still do not fully understand the emergent properties of IDP flows from the network perspective. Particularly lacking is quantitative information on how natural disasters and conflicts differently or similarly shape IDP networks. These knowledge gaps are critical for IDP studies with complex interactions because the gaps may misconnect IDP flows with socio-environmental data at inappropriate spatial scales. To address these gaps, this study applies a series of network analyses to compare emergent patterns in disaster-induced and conflict-induced IDP networks. Push patterns were random without hub formation in both cases. Social connections were critical to incoming IDP flows but not to outgoing IDP flows. Natural disasters and conflicts produced similar triadic structures of IDP networks, suggesting possible interactions between natural disasters and conflicts in driving IDP flows. Community patterns were more scattered by the number and formation in the conflict-induced IDP network than in the disaster-induced IDP network. From the community detection, Natural disasters were likely to move IDPs within the regional boundaries, but conflicts relocated IDPs to relatively remote areas out of the boundaries. The communities were more modular in the disaster-induced IDP network than in the conflict-induced IDP network. These findings are useful for understanding IDP network patterns as a starting point for developing a nexus between climate, conflict, and migration.

Energy communities have mushroomed over the past decades. These initiatives have scaled, that is replicated their experiences, expanded membership, and diversified involved actors and technologies. The picture existing literature paints is hopeful that the scaling of local-scale action may translate into global-scale impact and thus effectively contribute to combating climate change. However, important gaps remain in understanding the (combinations of) conditions which are necessary for scaling with this goal in mind. This article pushes the boundaries of knowledge further by examining and comparing 28 energy communities through a fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and by identifying the necessary conditions of actionable scaling mechanisms. Our analysis identifies a high number (8) of necessary (combinations of) conditions for scaling. Addressing a strong need amongst policy makers to facilitate broader scaling of community initiatives, this article offers concrete insights on mechanisms that need to be in place to scale energy communities. Insights are developed on – for example – the type of capacity support needed, support structures and the tools needed for connecting communities with each other. These insights help corroborate empirically, for the first time the crucial leverage points that will support strategies for upscaling the impact of energy communities, and will enable them to flourish as an essential element of the global climate governance system.

Protecting the world’s remaining forests is a global policy priority. Even though the value of the world’s remaining forests is global in nature, much of the protection has to come from national policies. Here, we combine global, high resolution remote sensing data on forest outcomes (tree-cover loss, forest degradation, net primary production) and two complementary econometric research designs for causal inference to first quantify how much it matters in which country a forest is located, secondly, the role of public policies, and third, under which conditions such pubic policies tend to be most successful. We find considerable border discontinuities in remotely sensed forest outcomes around the world (in a regression discontinuity design) and these are largely explained by countries’ policies (using a differences-in-discontinuities design). We estimate that public policies reduce the risk of tree cover loss by almost 4 percentage points globally, but there is large variation around this. The best explanations we find for these heterogenous treatment effects are a country’s policy enforcement, its policy stringency, its property rights, and its rule of law (in that order). Our results motivate international cooperation to finance and improve (a) countries’ public policies for forest protection and (b) countries’ capacity to implement and enforce them well.

The institutional predecessor of REDD+ is the integrated conservation and development project (ICDP) that combines restrictions on forest access and conversion (negative interventions) with non-conditional direct benefits (positive interventions) to compensate local stakeholders for income losses from those restrictions. The idea of REDD+ was to improve on the ICDP model with a different kind of positive intervention: conditional direct benefits, often known as payments for environmental services or PES. How has this idea played out in reality? In a sample of 17 (out of 377) active REDD+ initiatives across the global South, we identified the combinations of interventions actually deployed and elicited household assessments of how those interventions affected their land use decisions with respect to forests. We found that 71 % of the households in our sample had participated in some number of forest interventions ranging from one to ten. About a quarter of those households were offered conditional direct benefits, most often in combination with non-conditional direct benefits. Nearly half of the households had received only non-conditional direct benefits. Many of those households were also subject to restrictions of various kinds. Thus, rather than abandoning the well-established ICDP approach in favor of the conditional incentives that conceptually define REDD+, most initiative proponents opted to deploy multiple interventions. Their approach is validated by our finding that the likelihood a household reports that the interventions caused them to adopt land use changes that could be classified as reducing carbon emissions is positively and significantly related to the number of interventions that they experienced, but not affected by whether any of those interventions are conditional. We also find that restrictions play an important role: 37 % of the households were subject to at least one negative intervention, and those households were significantly more likely to report that the interventions had induced land use changes that could be classified as reducing carbon emissions.

Development that is inclusive and sustainable requires significant social and environmental transformations from current trajectories, building on demographic realities such as changing profiles of populations, and increased levels of mobility. Migration is a major driving force of urbanisation in all global regions, partly facilitated through emerging technologies and declining costs of movement and communication. Social transformations associated with increased migration are highly uneven but include shifts in the location of economic activities, major urban growth, and changing individual incentives and social constraints on sustainability trajectories. Yet, there is limited empirical evidence on how observed population movements can both challenge and promote sustainable transformations. This paper examines how migration transforms places and societies, by providing new evidence on the behaviours and practices of individuals who are part of such transformations as they assimilate, converge or remain distinctive to prior populations. Focusing on individuals in rapidly expanding cities in the Global South, this study uses new biographical life-history survey data from Accra, Ghana, to examine the barriers and enablers of sustainability practices among diverse types of migrants and a sample of non-migrants. The study uses data from 1,163 individuals: international migrants from the West African sub-region (5 5 9), internal migrants (2 9 9), and non-migrants (3 0 5) in Accra. The findings show that sustainability practices established before migration are predictors of current sustainability practices, including proactive recycling, conservation activities, and choice of mode of transportation, but that there is some convergence between behaviours, reflecting assimilation, place attachment and other factors. Internal migrants in Accra exhibit stronger sustainability practices than international migrants. Individual levels of poverty, poor infrastructural development, and perceptions about life satisfaction in the neighbourhood negatively affect sustainability practices among all respondents. These results suggest that poverty and social exclusion are critical to addressing sustainability issues in urban contexts. It is important for policy makers to address issues of urban poverty, cumulative deprivation, and inequality as strong barriers to the adoption of sustainability practices in urban areas.

Warming and resulting degradation of near-surface permafrost in cold regions across the globe has and will continue to lead to a series of hazards. These include land subsidence and weakening of the substrate’s bearing capacity, thus threatening infrastructure and the socioeconomics in permafrost regions. These potential hazards shorten the lifespan of infrastructure, increase the cost of infrastructure maintenance and replacement, which is of great importance to a variety of stakeholders. In Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions, more than 34% of the population and 44% of the infrastructure will be at high risk by the end of this century. Due to the degradation of permafrost, infrastructure will require an additional investment of approximately $205–572 billion to maintain the operation of engineering and service infrastructure in 2085, based on projections with a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption in Africa is being driven by both structural and non-structural pressures. Hurdles to EV adoption as a tool for low carbon development are explained, drawing on interviews with energy specialists from Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia, South Africa, and Cameroon. Findings point to multiple-scale tensions between energy transition and access, between policy design and implementation, and between the spread of EVs and the power generation required to spur growth. Existing EV infrastructure is dependent on stranded assets from fossil fuel sources that are about to be abandoned for Africa’s power supply. Scaling up renewable energy systems will be more efficient if operational costs for fossil fuel infrastructure are switched to capital costs. This calls for a fresh business strategy designed to address Africa's desire to ensure energy efficiency that will spur the acceptance of EVs, while also deploying renewable energy to reach global climate goals. By using a combination of market and policy instruments, a new regulatory framework, accessible financing, and stronger price signals can help phase out aging fossil fuel infrastructure and spark an efficiency revolution.

The Caucasus Mountains harbor high concentrations of endemic species and provide an abundance of ecosystem services yet are significantly understudied compared to other ecosystems in Eurasia. In the country of Georgia, at the heart of the Caucasus region, forest degradation has been the largest land change process over the last thirty years. The prevailing narrative is that legal and illegal cutting of trees for fuelwood is primarily responsible for this process. Yet, since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country has undergone rapid socioeconomic and institutional changes which have not been explored as drivers of forest change. We combine newly available land-cover change estimates, Georgian statistical data, and historical institutional change data to examine socioeconomic drivers of forest degradation. Our analysis controls for concurrent changes in climate that would affect degradation and examines variation at the regional (state) level from 2011 to 2019, as well as at the national level from 1987 to 2019. We find that higher winter temperature and drought are associated with higher degradation at the regional scale, while major institutional changes and drought are associated with higher forest degradation at the national level. Access to natural gas, the major energy alternative to fuelwood, had no significant association with degradation. Our results challenge the narrative that poverty and a lack of alternative energy infrastructure drive forest degradation and suggest that government policies banning household fuelwood cutting, including the new Forest Code of 2020, may not reduce forest degradation. Given these results, improved data on wood harvesting and more research on the commercial drivers of degradation and their links to economic and political reforms is needed to better inform forest policy in the region, especially given ongoing risks from climate change.

The ongoing Global Energy System Transformation (GEST) has attracted the attention of multiple academic disciplines and practitioners, approaching the process with different analytical and conceptual tools. We explore the ‘integration gap’ that exists between, on the one hand, Energy System Modelling and the stylised scenarios they use, and on the other, energy geopolitics. We consider how these approaches can complement each other to further our understanding of the global energy system’s future. Using a novel qualitative analytical framework, we review the extent to which a range of state-of-the-art global energy scenarios capture and reflect key issues in energy geopolitics in their narratives and model implementation. We find that few scenarios consider geopolitics in any depth. Those that do often treat it as a barrier to decarbonisation efforts that are aligned with the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement. Normative, Paris-aligned scenarios describe smooth processes of change where cooperation and coordination between countries are assumed and where geopolitics is often completely absent. Our findings emphasise the need for a more intricate understanding of the difference between ‘paper transitions’ and the real-world messiness and complexities of GEST, where geopolitics has a dual quality of simultaneously accelerating and hindering the transformation process.

Sustainable lifestyles and behaviour changes can be vital in climate change mitigation. Various disciplines analyse the potential for such changes – but without much interaction. Qualitative studies look into the change process (e.g. social practice theory), while quantitative studies often focus on their impact in stylised cases (e.g. energy modelling). A more holistic approach can provide insightful scenarios with diverse lifestyle changes based on informed narratives for quantifying long-term impacts. This research explores how comprehensive sustainable lifestyle scenarios, coined SLIM (Sustainable Living in Models) scenarios, could contribute to transport and residential emission reductions. By translating and quantifying lifestyle scenario narratives through engagements with advisors and policymakers, we modelled two distinct lifestyle scenarios which differ in their degree of access to structural support. In one scenario, governments, corporations and cities leverage existing values and market systems to shape citizen and consumer preferences and everyday practices. In the other scenario, people adopt ambitious sustainable lifestyle behaviours and practices through peer-to-peer interaction and digital technology. We quantified the scenarios based on motivations, contextual factors, extent, and speed of lifestyle adoptions with regional differentiation. Furthermore, we applied heterogenous adopter groups to determine the model inputs. We present the resulting pathways in per capita emissions and more detailed changes in total emissions via decomposition analyses. We conclude that regional differentiation of the scenario narratives and modelling of intra-regional differences allows accounting for equity in lifestyle changes to a certain extent. Furthermore, new technologies are more important for enabling lifestyle change in a scenario with than a scenario without strong structural support. With strong structural support, lifestyle changes reduce transport and residential emissions to a larger degree (about 39% for Global North and 27% for Global South overall in 2050 relative to a “Middle-of-the-Road” SSP2 reference scenario in 2050). Thus, lifestyle changes in larger systems change are essential for effective climate change mitigation.