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On institutionalization of the role and place of big business in solving the problems of socio-economic development of the country 论大企业在解决我国社会经济发展问题中的作用和地位的制度化
Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2023-2-76-33-43
V. Kryukov
The article considers the role and place of large companies in ensuring the transition of the domestic economy to an innovative sociallyoriented trajectory of functioning and development. It is noted that the leading role of large companies (previously – plants, and now, as a rule, multi-branch holdings) is usually associated with the industrialization processes and the formation of the 2-nd technological mode. At the same time in Russia factors and circumstances of spatial development of the country play a significant role, having a significant impact on the formation of features of the transition to the 4th technological mode. Large companies are expected to play the role of “anchor” participants in the processes of formation and development of horizontal links and interactions of small and medium-sized companies. Implementation of the above-mentioned potentialities of large companies has its own peculiarities due to their specific spatial organization. Under the influence of priorities of market nature in the economy of the country, and especially in individual regions, there can be increased fragmentation of production and technological links and enhanced importance of the initial raw materials redistribution. Overcoming the development of the situation in this direction involves purposeful indicative planning. According to the author, it is based primarily on the priorities and goals of scientific and technological policy.
本文考虑了大公司在确保国内经济向创新的社会导向的运行和发展轨道过渡中的作用和地位。值得注意的是,大公司(以前是工厂,现在通常是多分支控股公司)的主导作用通常与工业化进程和第二技术模式的形成有关。与此同时,俄罗斯的空间发展因素和环境也发挥着重要作用,对第四次技术模式转型特征的形成具有重要影响。期望大公司在中小企业横向联系和互动的形成和发展过程中发挥“锚定”参与者的作用。大公司由于其特定的空间组织结构,实现上述潜力有其自身的特殊性。在一国经济中,特别是在个别地区,受市场性质优先事项的影响,生产和技术环节可能更加分散,最初的原材料再分配更加重要。要克服朝这个方向发展的局势,需要有目的的指示性规划。作者认为,它主要基于科技政策的优先事项和目标。
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引用次数: 0
The challenges of forecasting under current conditions 当前条件下预测的挑战
Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2023-2-76-44-53
A. Bakhtizin
The issues of forecasting in modern conditions using mathematical models, the development of which is the main specialization of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, are considered. A comparative analysis of forecasting methods (IMF and Central Bank) using mathematical tools is given. The bias of the providers of economic forecasts using these forecasts to manipulate public opinion is shown. Their inadequacy during periods of perturbations in economic systems is substantiated. Alternative methods for the analysis of economic systems are proposed. The fundamental importance of compensatory measures that help reduce the negative effect of sanctions and promote economic development is noted. The main task of Russian forecasters is to actively counter the aggressive information flow.
讨论了在现代条件下使用数学模型进行预测的问题,该模型的开发是俄罗斯科学院中央经济和数学研究所的主要专业。用数学工具对国际货币基金组织和中央银行的预测方法进行了比较分析。经济预测提供者利用这些预测来操纵公众舆论的偏见。它们在经济系统动荡时期的不足已得到证实。提出了分析经济系统的替代方法。委员会指出,有助于减少制裁的不利影响和促进经济发展的补偿措施具有根本重要性。俄罗斯预测者的主要任务是积极应对激进的信息流。
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引用次数: 0
Updating the Technological Foundation of Production and Percentage Policy 更新生产技术基础和比例政策
Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2023-2(76)-70-83
V. Dementiev
The continuing trajectory of the development of the Russian economy does not lead to overcoming Russia’s lag behind the leading countries in terms of labor productivity. Technological inertia is one of the reasons for this lag. In the modern economy, unicorn companies play an important role in updating the technological base of production. There are fast-growing companies in Russia, but they don’t become unicorns. Unprofitable organizations and zombie companies pull off a significant part of the demand and hinder the continuation of the expansion of fast-growing companies. In a number of industries, the risk of investing in new technologies increases due to the low utilization of existing capacities. These circumstances limit the possibilities of boosting investments by lowering real interest rates. Such a measure can increase the availability of loans for firms focused on technological innovation. However, at the same time, it can prolong the existence of zombie firms that restrain the development of innovative enterprises. Time-limited licensing of the creation of new capacities is advisable in industries with strong economies of scale. This will help the formation of leading companies in the technological transformation of the Russian economy. The central bank’s measures to restrict evergreen lending to zombie firms can help transform fast-growing firms into unicorn companies.
俄罗斯经济的持续发展轨迹并没有导致俄罗斯克服在劳动生产率方面落后于主要国家的问题。技术惰性是造成这种滞后的原因之一。在现代经济中,独角兽公司在更新生产技术基础方面发挥着重要作用。俄罗斯也有快速增长的公司,但它们并没有成为独角兽。无利可图的组织和僵尸公司实现了很大一部分需求,阻碍了快速增长的公司的持续扩张。在一些工业中,由于现有能力利用率低,投资新技术的风险增加。这些情况限制了通过降低实际利率来刺激投资的可能性。这种措施可以增加专注于技术创新的企业获得贷款的机会。但与此同时,它也会延长僵尸企业的存在,从而制约创新型企业的发展。在具有强大规模经济的行业中,对创造新能力实行有时限的许可是可取的。这将有助于在俄罗斯经济技术转型中形成领先的公司。中国央行限制向僵尸企业发放常青树贷款的措施,可以帮助快速增长的企业转型为独角兽企业。
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引用次数: 0
Prospects for the Development of Russia on the Long-Term Wave of Growth in the New Technological Order 新技术秩序下长期增长浪潮下的俄罗斯发展前景
Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2023-2(76)-27-32
S. Glaziev
Nanotechnologies are the key factor in the formation of a new technological order entering the growth phase. China and India form the core of a new (integral) world economic order, the main goal of which is to increase public welfare. Russia does not develop scientific and technical potential, nor does it master the institutions of the new order. The main reason is the significant underfunding of Research and Advanced Development. At the same time, the export of capital reached a critical value (240 billion), part of the capital (foreign exchange reserves) was arrested. The author emphasizes the positive trend of the decreased influence of the EU and North America in Russian foreign economic activity, a sharp increase in the impact of partners from Southeast Asia (India and China) is noted as well.
纳米技术是形成进入生长阶段的新技术秩序的关键因素。中国和印度构成了一个新的(完整的)世界经济秩序的核心,其主要目标是增加公共福利。俄罗斯没有发展科学和技术潜力,也没有掌握新秩序的制度。主要原因是研究和先进发展的资金严重不足。同时,资本输出达到临界值(2400亿),部分资本(外汇储备)被截留。作者强调,欧盟和北美在俄罗斯对外经济活动中的影响力呈下降趋势,同时也注意到东南亚伙伴(印度和中国)的影响力急剧上升。
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引用次数: 0
A Comparative Analysis of Russian Economic Security Assessment Methods 俄罗斯经济安全评估方法的比较分析
Pub Date : 2023-03-03 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2023-1-75-56-66
I. Manakhova, K.S. Khrupina
The article discusses four methods for assessing the level of Russia’s economic security, which include: 1) the threshold method proposed by the scientists of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2) the indicative method presented by V. K. Senchagov and S. N. Mityakov based on threshold values, 3) institutional (legislative), the indicators of which are enshrined in the Economic Security Strategy of Russia until 2030, 4) integral method proposed by I. A. Sushkova to assess the level of financial security. Statistical data and calculations for these methods in the period from 2012 to 2021 are given, an assessment is made of the level of economic security of Russia in the sphere of the real economy, social, monetary and financial and foreign economic spheres. A comparative characteristic of these methods is carried out, the positive and negative aspects of each of them are reflected in order to assess the level of economic security.
本文讨论了评估俄罗斯经济安全水平的四种方法,包括:1)俄罗斯科学院经济研究所科学家提出的阈值法;2)V. K. Senchagov和S. N. Mityakov基于阈值提出的指示性方法;3)制度(立法),其指标体现在《俄罗斯至2030年经济安全战略》中;4)I. A. Sushkova提出的评估金融安全水平的积分法。本文给出了2012年至2021年期间这些方法的统计数据和计算结果,并对俄罗斯在实体经济、社会、货币和金融以及对外经济领域的经济安全水平进行了评估。对这些方法进行了比较,反映了每一种方法的积极和消极方面,以便评估经济安全水平。
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引用次数: 0
Innovative state of the region’s economy is the main condition for reducing inter-territorial inequality 区域经济的创新状态是减少区域间不平等的主要条件
Pub Date : 2023-03-03 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2023-1-75-50-55
S. Kochetkov, O. Kochetkova
The article is devoted to the construction of the innovative state of the region’s economy. To do this, a model of innovative state of the regional economy. It justified the formation of innovative state of the economy of the region. System indicators for regulation and parameters for prognostics the innovative state of the regional economy have been developed. The results obtained are the basis for an intensification of the regional economy. On this basis, practical recommendations were formulated for creating a mechanism for eliminating territorial inequality in our country.
本文致力于区域经济创新状态的构建。做到这一点,是区域经济创新的典范状态。它证明了该地区经济创新状态的形成。制定了用于调节的系统指标和用于预测区域经济创新状态的参数。所取得的成果是加强区域经济的基础。在此基础上,为建立消除我国领土不平等的机制提出了切实可行的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Development of Russian Methods of Strategic Analysis and the Feasibility of Replacing the SWOT Model 俄罗斯战略分析方法的发展及替代SWOT模型的可行性
Pub Date : 2023-03-03 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2023-1-75-24-34
Y. Malenkov
Theoretical problems of developing methods and technologies of strategic analysis are considered. The scientific criticism of the SWOT approach widely used today in management practice and in education is given and the inexpediency of its use is shown. Instead of the SWOT approach, a new model of strategic analysis is proposed, based on new generalized variables, creating a target orientation to solving a set of development problems, completely eliminating the defects and miscalculations of the SWOT approach. A new technology of strategic analysis “Search for reserves and resources for creating competitive advantages and eliminating obstacles to solving development problems” has been developed, which is advisable to use in managing the development of enterprises, regional industries, the economy of the Russian Federation as a whole and other complex systems, and in the future can be used for inclusion of artificial intelligence functions (AI) in the sphere of strategic analysis.
研究了发展战略分析方法和技术的理论问题。对目前在管理实践和教育中广泛使用的SWOT方法进行了科学的批评,并指出了其使用的不恰当之处。本文提出了一种新的战略分析模型来代替SWOT方法,该模型基于新的广义变量,为解决一系列发展问题创造了目标导向,彻底消除了SWOT方法的缺陷和误判。已经开发了一种新的战略分析技术,“为创造竞争优势和消除解决发展问题的障碍而寻找储备和资源”,可用于管理企业、区域工业、俄罗斯联邦整体经济和其他复杂系统的发展,未来可用于将人工智能功能(AI)纳入战略分析领域。
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引用次数: 0
Transformation of the Form of Economic Domination: From BourgeoisIndustrial to State-Monopolist Financial Capitalism 经济统治形式的转变:从资产阶级工业金融资本主义到国家垄断金融资本主义
Pub Date : 2023-03-03 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2023-1-75-83-90
V. B. Sirotkin
The process of transformation of forms of economic domination in the West is under analysis. The author indicates the means of domination expansion and the processes accompanying the change in the rank of values in modern capitalist society.
分析了西方经济统治形式的转变过程。作者指出了现代资本主义社会统治扩张的手段和伴随着价值等级变化的过程。
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引用次数: 0
Development of secondary vocational education as a factor of inclusive economic growth of regions 中等职业教育发展是区域包容性经济增长的重要因素
Pub Date : 2023-03-03 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2023-1-75-91-97
L. Shamina, E. A. Petrova, E.L. Primatov
The development of secondary vocational education is considered as a factor of the inclusive economic growth of the regions of the Russian Federation. The factors that influenced the insufficient level of development of secondary professional development and the prerequisites for changing the noted situation are highlighted. In this article, the authors attempt to consider the development of the system of secondary vocational education as a factor in the inclusive economic growth of the Russian Federation. In accordance with this, the features of the regional aspect of the sphere of secondary vocational educational services should be determined and positive changes are predicted with an increase in investment of resources in the further development of secondary vocational education in our country.
中等职业教育的发展被认为是俄罗斯联邦各地区包容性经济增长的一个因素。强调了影响中学专业发展水平不足的因素和改变这一现状的先决条件。在本文中,作者试图将中等职业教育体系的发展视为俄罗斯联邦包容性经济增长的一个因素。据此,应明确中等职业教育服务领域的区域性特征,并在进一步发展我国中等职业教育的过程中,加大资源投入,预测其积极变化。
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引用次数: 1
Integration Processes in the World Economy: a Nooapproach and Development of Eurasian Space 世界经济一体化进程:欧亚空间的新思路与发展
Pub Date : 2023-03-03 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2023-1-75-35-49
V.V. Аrkhipova
Within the current conditions and realities – namely, aggravation of inter-country conflicts, continuous chains of financial and economic crises, unpredictable epidemics and pandemic, increasing threats and risks to the existence of humanity – issues of integration and solidarity are becoming particularly relevant. At the same time, the existing theories of integration and approaches to its interpretation, identification of stages and evaluation of results are very specific due to the concentration mainly on economic and political-economic processes, as well as often because of their “sharpening” for the European Union. The purpose of this paper is to develop an alternative (to the “classical” one) approach to the determination and analysis of integration based on the theory of noonomy worked out by S. D. Bodrunov. The article provides evidence of an overestimating the results of European integration, based mainly on the creation in theory and practice of its idealized image of this continuously progressive and exemplary model that stands out from the rest of the world. The basic provisions and conclusions of noonomy, the “parallels” of this theory and the results of its “conjugation” with the theory of changing technological modes and the concept of changing world economic modes, worked out by S. Y. Glazyev, are presented. We enter the concept of “noointegration”, highlight its main stages and analyze the differences and correlation of its processes with classical integration. It is explained why noo-integration, without denying economic integration at the pre-noonomic stage of public life, turns out to be of a higher priority and more useful for the harmonious joint development of the Eurasian space and its participating countries than the classical integration model.
在当前的条件和现实下——即国家间冲突加剧、金融和经济危机连续不断、不可预测的流行病和流行病、对人类生存的威胁和风险日益增加——一体化和团结的问题变得特别重要。同时,现有的一体化理论及其解释、确定阶段和评价结果的方法都非常具体,因为它们主要集中在经济和政治-经济过程上,而且往往因为它们对欧洲联盟的“锐化”。本文的目的是在鲍德鲁诺夫(s.d. Bodrunov)的经济学理论的基础上,发展一种替代“经典”方法的方法来确定和分析整合。本文提供了高估欧洲一体化结果的证据,主要基于其在理论和实践中创造的这种持续进步和模范模式的理想化形象,这种模式在世界其他地区脱颖而出。本文介绍了经济学的基本规定和结论、这一理论的“相似之处”以及它与S. Y. Glazyev提出的技术模式变化理论和世界经济模式变化概念“结合”的结果。本文引入了“非整合”的概念,突出了其主要阶段,分析了其过程与经典整合的区别和关联。在不否认公共生活前经济阶段的经济一体化的情况下,解释了为什么与传统的一体化模式相比,新型一体化对欧亚空间及其参与国的和谐共同发展具有更高的优先级和更有用的意义。
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引用次数: 0
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Economic Revival of Russia
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