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Window of Opportunity in a New Reality 新现实中的机会之窗
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2022-3-73-29-36
V. Tsvetkov
Considering the current difficult situation, not the survival of the country should be discussed, but the transition, towards the civilized development of society, no matter how complicated it would be. The sanctions severed economic, political, cultural, scientific ties. But we should not allow a stagnation in the development of the country and its leap backwards into the 20th century. No matter how dramatic the situation is, windows of opportunity are opening up. We are, indeed, going our own way. The key thing is to understand where it leads and what is the purpose of this difficult journey.
考虑到目前的困境,应该讨论的不是国家的生存,而是社会向文明发展的过渡,无论这将是多么复杂。制裁切断了经济、政治、文化和科学联系。但是我们不能让国家的发展停滞不前,倒退到20世纪。无论情况多么戏剧化,机会之窗正在打开。我们确实是在走自己的路。关键是要明白这条路通向何方,以及这段艰难旅程的目的是什么。
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引用次数: 1
On Subtle Factors of Development Uncertainty in the Long Term and Ways of Adapting to New Challenges 论长期发展不确定性的微妙因素及适应新挑战的途径
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2022-3-73-61-70
D. Belousov
The article considers long-term development trends under conditions of uncertainty, a preliminary scenario analysis of the economic status after the events of February 24, 2022 is provided. The author proposes methods and means to adapt to new challenges. Particular attention is paid to the structuring of basic trends and systemic processes. The advancement of development scenarios and the main scenario-forming contradictions are described in detail. The article provides recommendations for the transition from stabilization to development. An example of the implementation of the proposed adaptation strategy in relation to organizations of science and technology is given.
本文考虑了不确定条件下的长期发展趋势,对2022年2月24日事件后的经济状况进行了初步情景分析。作者提出了适应新挑战的方法和手段。特别注意基本趋势和系统过程的结构。详细阐述了发展情景的先进性和主要情景形成矛盾。本文为从稳定过渡到发展提供了建议。给出了在科技组织中实施所提出的适应战略的一个例子。
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引用次数: 1
The social and political consequences of the pandemia on the conceptualisation of economies in the West 大流行对西方经济概念的社会和政治影响
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.38197/2072-2060-2020-223-3-573-576
L. Gabriel
L. Gabriel considers the consequences of the complex crisis (economic, political, ecological and cultural) caused by the pandemic. Most prominently, these consequences include the concentration of power in the hands of oligarchs, tendency towards militarization, authoritarian power structure and extreme political polarization. The crisis must lead to a change in the economic paradigm. In this regard, the author emphasizes the importance of S. D. Bodrunov’s concept of noonomy, which stipulates the reorganization of the economy in accordance with non-economic standards (the economy is considered as a result of interaction, including interaction between knowledge and culture). In order to implement alternative models, it is necessary to overcome the gap between theory and practice. It is important to join our efforts at all levels (from local to global) for the sake of maintaining peace, protecting human rights, resolving environmental issues and preserving biodiversity as the conditions required for sustainable development.
加布里埃尔审议了疫情造成的复杂危机(经济、政治、生态和文化)的后果。最突出的是,这些后果包括权力集中在寡头手中、军事化倾向、威权主义权力结构和极端政治两极分化。这场危机必须导致经济模式的改变。在这方面,作者强调了S. D. Bodrunov的经济学概念的重要性,它规定了按照非经济标准对经济进行重组(经济被认为是相互作用的结果,包括知识和文化之间的相互作用)。为了实施替代模型,有必要克服理论与实践之间的差距。重要的是,我们必须在各级(从地方到全球)共同努力,以维护和平、保护人权、解决环境问题和保护生物多样性,作为可持续发展所需的条件。
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引用次数: 2
On politicized theories and their substitution 论政治化理论及其替代
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2022-2-72-28-34
V. Maevsky
A definition of politicized theory hasbeen introduced. It is an imported theory, the use of which in Russian practice contributes to the economic power of the USA and the EU and does not benefit our economy. One of the politicized theories, in my view, is the Bank of Russia’s theory of a small open economy exporting mainly raw materials. The paper shows that Russia cannot be viewed from this perspective and that the application of the theory of a small open economy hampers economic growth objectives. As an alternative, the paper proposes a concept of long-term banking macro policy of monetary stimulation of economic growth. Its main goal is to find a growth enhancing monetary regime that ensures a compromise between economic growth and inflation in the long run. The solution of the problem of searching for a compromise between growth and inflation is implemented by means of a simulation model of a shifting reproduction regime. The simulation model has shown that the trade-off is feasible due to emission control and is achieved when the GDP growth rate equals the inflation rate. Against the backdrop of sharply strained relations between Russia and the NATO bloc, there is a need for a discussion on the rejection of politicized economic theories. This discussion could also include approach using our model.
介绍了政治化理论的定义。这是舶来的理论,在俄罗斯的实践中使用它有助于美国和欧盟的经济实力,而不利于我们的经济。在我看来,其中一个政治化的理论是俄罗斯银行的小型开放型经济理论,主要出口原材料。本文表明,不能从这一角度看待俄罗斯,小型开放经济理论的应用阻碍了经济增长目标。作为替代方案,本文提出了货币刺激经济增长的长期银行宏观政策的概念。它的主要目标是找到一种促进增长的货币制度,确保在长期内实现经济增长与通胀之间的妥协。在经济增长和通货膨胀之间寻求折衷的问题的解决方案是通过一个移动的再生产制度的模拟模型来实现的。仿真模型表明,由于排放控制,这种权衡是可行的,并且在GDP增长率等于通货膨胀率时实现。在俄罗斯与北约(NATO)关系急剧紧张的情况下,有必要讨论拒绝政治化经济理论的问题。这个讨论也可以包括使用我们的模型的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Transforming Human Needs, Values, and Motivation in the Transition to Noonomics 在向经济学的过渡中转变人类的需求、价值和动机
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2021-3-69-134-143
M. Pavlov
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引用次数: 0
Technological Transition: Economic Crisis, Sanctions and a New Technological Agenda 技术转型:经济危机、制裁和新技术议程
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2022-3-73-71-88
A. Gorodetsky
The relationship between the concepts of transformational transition and the role of technological transition as its most important component, the content of the category of technological transition and technological sovereignty, as characteristics of technological development in the Transitional era of changing the world order, an acute global economic and geopolitical crisis, sanctions and hybrid wars. The necessity and expediency of economic mobilization are substantiated, the modernized agenda of technological development is analyzed, and an approach to analyzing the risks of digitalization is proposed.
转型转型的概念和作为其最重要组成部分的技术转型的作用之间的关系,技术转型范畴的内容和技术主权,作为改变世界秩序的过渡时代技术发展的特征,一个尖锐的全球经济和地缘政治危机,制裁和混合战争。论证了经济动员的必要性和权宜之计,分析了技术发展的现代化议程,提出了数字化风险分析方法。
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引用次数: 1
Demand in the Housing Market and the Needs of Russian People: an Econometric Approach 住房市场的需求和俄罗斯人民的需求:一个计量经济学方法
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2022-4-74-41-56
I. Eliseeva, M. Bochenina
The article emphasizes the peculiarities of such goods as housing and the situation with the affordability of housing, which has developed in the modern Russian market, due to the outstripping growth rates of housing prices. The article considers regional peculiarities of emerging trends in federal districts in conditions of relatively low mortgage rates. Particular attention is paid to the scale and structure of mortgage lending in CFD, attention is paid to the increased role of investment decisions when purchasing housing in CFD by borrowers from other regions. Assessing the prospects of housing market development in the light of the demographic policy, emphasis is made on the growing discrepancy between the needs of the population for housing and the emerging demand, shifted to the purchase of more affordable small-size housing. This causes structural shifts in the supply of housing. The authors consider it possible to define this situation as “quasi-demand”, which does not solve the problem of improving housing conditions and, in fact, creates a pent-up demand, the aggravation of which is likely in the medium-term period of 7-8 years. The article is written based on official statistics with the use of econometric modeling and graphs.
文章强调了住房等商品的特殊性,以及由于房价过快增长而在现代俄罗斯市场上发展起来的住房负担能力的情况。文章考虑了在相对较低的抵押贷款利率条件下,联邦区新兴趋势的区域特点。特别关注差价合约抵押贷款的规模和结构,关注来自其他地区的借款人在购买差价合约住房时投资决策的作用。在根据人口政策评估住房市场发展前景时,强调人口对住房的需要与新出现的需求之间的差距越来越大,因而转向购买负担得起的小型住房。这导致了住房供应的结构性转变。作者认为可以将这种情况定义为“准需求”,这种情况不能解决改善住房条件的问题,实际上造成了被压抑的需求,这种需求在7-8年的中期可能会加剧。本文以官方统计数据为基础,使用计量经济学模型和图表。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting Potential of the Systematic Dissemination of General-Purpose Technologies Concept in the Economy 通用技术概念在经济中系统传播的预测潜力
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2022-4-74-9-27
S. Tolkachev, A. Teplyakov, A.V. Falaleeva
The article attempts a comparative analysis of popular concepts of technological development – industrial revolutions, technological modes, general purpose technologies. It shows the development of ideas about general purpose technologies and the current state of the problem. General purpose technologies are consistently deployed on the scheme “production-transport-information” in accordance with the logic of capital accumulation. Based on the development of the author’s concept of cyclic development of the general purpose technologies complex, the role of digital technologies as key for the emerging third technological megacycle or the third industrial revolution is substantiated. There is a forecast assumption that the full-scale industrial deployment of NBIC-technologies will be in the next technological megacycle, when all industry prerequisites for the effective synthesis of individual components will mature.
本文试图对流行的技术发展概念——工业革命、技术模式、通用技术进行比较分析。它展示了通用技术思想的发展和问题的现状。通用技术按照资本积累的逻辑,始终按照“生产-运输-信息”的方案进行部署。基于作者的通用技术综合体循环发展概念的发展,数字技术作为新兴的第三次技术大周期或第三次工业革命的关键作用得到了证实。有一种预测假设认为,nbic技术的全面工业部署将在下一个技术大周期,届时各个组件有效合成的所有行业先决条件都将成熟。
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引用次数: 0
«Big Sarov»: explicit and implicit consequences of territorial deployment of science “大萨罗夫”:科学领域部署的显性和隐性后果
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2021-4-70-128-146
D. Faykov, Dmitry Yu. Baydarov
The possibilities of developing fundamental science outside of large agglomerations, primarily in places with a high concentration of research and development, are considered. It is shown that the territorial location of scientific centers and large installations generates effects related to the diversification of the economy of cities, the interaction of defense and civil science, with forms of international cooperation, organizational and legal definition of scientific projects of the “mega-science” class, the development of quality of life, etc. An attempt is made to reveal the causes of these effects and their impact on the development of scientific activities. On the example of the project of the Center for Fundamental Science in Sarov, theoretical and practical solutions to issues related to the peculiarities of territorial placement are proposed.
还考虑了在大集聚区以外发展基础科学的可能性,主要是在研究和开发高度集中的地方。研究表明,科学中心和大型设施的地域位置产生的影响与城市经济的多样化、国防和民用科学的互动、国际合作形式、“大科学”类科学项目的组织和法律定义、生活质量的发展等有关。试图揭示这些影响的原因及其对科学活动发展的影响。以萨罗夫基础科学中心的项目为例,提出了与领土放置特殊性相关问题的理论和实践解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Key Performance Indicators of Executive Bodies: Regional Monitoring Experience 执行机构的关键绩效指标:区域监测经验
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2022-4-74-139-148
N. A. Limkina
The system of indicative planning of the executive authorities of the Republic of Mordovia is considered. The purpose of the empirical study is to assess the quantitative and qualitative parameters of the key performance indicators of ministries and departments in the region. During the preparation of the article, general scientific methods of research (analysis, synthesis, deduction, induction), statistical-economic and formal-legal methods were used. As a result, the legislative framework underlying the application of target indicators for the work of executive authorities at the federal and regional levels was studied, and an assessment was made of the implementation of key indicators by regional executive authorities. Attention is focused on the problems associated with the development and evaluation of the activities of executive authorities. These data can be used in the development of strategic planning program documents.
审议了摩尔多瓦共和国行政当局的指示性规划制度。实证研究的目的是对区域内各部委关键绩效指标的定量和定性参数进行评估。在文章的编写过程中,使用了一般的科学研究方法(分析,综合,演绎,归纳),统计经济学和形式法律方法。结果,研究了在联邦和区域两级行政当局的工作中应用目标指标的立法框架,并对区域行政当局执行关键指标的情况进行了评估。注意的重点是与发展和评价行政当局的活动有关的问题。这些数据可用于战略规划方案文件的制定。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Economic Revival of Russia
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