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Prospects for the development of the Russian oil and gas industry in the context of the energy transition and the formation of a low-carbon economy model 展望了在能源转型和低碳经济模式形成背景下俄罗斯油气工业的发展前景
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2022-2-72-137-143
O. Kudryavtseva, E. V. Serebrennikov
The article analyzes the prospects for the development of the Russian oil and gas industry in the context of the energy transition and the formation of a low-carbon economy model. The paper considers the main prerequisites, factors and trends contributing to the transformation of global energy and challenges for the Russian oil and gas industry against this background. A comparative analysis of the energy paradigm of the present time and its evolution in the near future is carried out. The modern energy paradigm is characterized by the dominant influence of the use of hydrocarbons, unidirectional movement of energy flows from producer to consumer, a high degree of vertical integration of supply in the energy market, poor energy efficiency, simultaneous production and consumption of energy. The key factors in the development of the energy of the future are the decentralization of energy production, its intellectualization, the increase in the efficiency and scale of the use of renewable energy technologies, and the increase in energy efficiency in consumption. Against this background, the influence of the oil and gas industry remains unchanged for a number of strategically important areas: sea and air transport for civil and military purposes, energy in remote and hard-to-reach regions. The authors conclude that the strategic importance of the Russian oil and gas industry remains unchanged in the next 100-150 years in the competitive conditions of a volatile market and environmental constraints.
文章分析了在能源转型和低碳经济模式形成的背景下,俄罗斯油气工业的发展前景。本文考虑了全球能源转型的主要先决条件、因素和趋势,以及在此背景下俄罗斯油气行业面临的挑战。比较分析了当前的能源范式及其在不久的将来的演变。现代能源模式的特点是:碳氢化合物使用的主导影响、能源从生产者流向消费者的单向流动、能源市场供应高度垂直一体化、能源效率低、能源生产和消费同时进行。未来能源发展的关键因素是能源生产的分散化、智能化、可再生能源技术使用效率和规模的提高,以及消费中能源效率的提高。在这种背景下,石油和天然气工业对一些具有重要战略意义的领域的影响保持不变:民用和军事目的的海运和空运,偏远和难以到达地区的能源。作者得出结论,在未来100-150年,在市场波动和环境限制的竞争条件下,俄罗斯油气行业的战略重要性将保持不变。
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引用次数: 1
Soviet mobilisation and evacuation planning during the war years and conclusions for today’s world 苏联在战争年代的动员和疏散计划以及对当今世界的结论
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2021-3-69-53-66
A. Gorodetskiy
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引用次数: 1
Institutional barriers and perspectives in creating an innovative economy in Russia 在俄罗斯创造创新经济的制度障碍和前景
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2022-1-71-137-154
A. Nikonova
Institutional changes are analyzed; estimates are obtained that indicate the negative dynamics of innovative shifts in the economy for a number of parameters, despite to improve some components of the institutional and business environment. In carrying out such an analysis, we distinguished between country specificities and the framework conditions of the institutional environment for innovation. Based on the results of an empirical analysis of the institutional conditions for the creation, absorption and diffusion of innovations in Russia, key institutional constraints are formulated that restrain the innovative activity of domestic enterprises. The research methodology is based on the provisions of the systemic economic theory developed under the leadership of G. B. Kleiner at CEMI RAS. The validity of the conclusions is supported by the latest data from official statistics and major international organizations, as well as confirmed by the results obtained by leading Russian and foreign researchers and experts. The directions for improving the functions of institutions to stimulate, regulate and coordinate the interaction of the participants in innovation processes are proposed, guided by the requirements of the systemic paradigm aimed at harmonizing the interaction of all sectors in an integral socio-economic system in order to concord entrepreneurial activity, develop human potential, and intellectualize the economy.
制度变迁分析;所获得的估计数表明,尽管体制和商业环境的某些组成部分有所改善,但经济中一些参数的创新转变的消极动态。在进行这种分析时,我们区分了国家的具体情况和促进创新的制度环境的框架条件。在对俄罗斯创新创造、吸收和扩散的制度条件进行实证分析的基础上,提出了制约国内企业创新活动的主要制度约束。研究方法是基于在CEMI RAS的G. B. Kleiner领导下发展的系统经济理论的规定。结论的有效性得到了官方统计数据和主要国际组织的最新数据的支持,并得到了俄罗斯和外国主要研究人员和专家的结果的证实。在旨在协调整体社会经济系统中所有部门的相互作用,以协调企业活动、开发人类潜能和使经济智能化的系统范式要求的指导下,提出了改进机构功能的方向,以刺激、调节和协调创新过程中参与者的相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
The Transformation of State Institutions Based on the Shift in Knowledge in Society 基于社会知识变迁的国家机构转型
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2021-3-69-154-164
L. V. Dorofeeva, N. Roslyakova
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引用次数: 0
Addressing the Need for Proactive Structural and Spatial Policies in Asian Russia 解决俄罗斯亚洲地区积极的结构和空间政策的需求
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2022-3-73-5-17
V. Kryukov
The paper reviews the distinctive features of the economy of Asian Russia. They show the increasing role in the economy of the East of the country of the first stages of extraction and primary processing of natural resources. At the same time there is a significant decrease in the degree of territorial participation not only in the processing of extracted raw materials, but also in the supply of equipment and the provision of industrial and technological support services. The author argues that these disproportions can be overcome only through the implementation of an active spatial and structural policy. An important feature of this policy is the interrelation and interdependence of steps and measures of tax, tariff, scientific and technological regulation of specific projects.
文章回顾了亚洲俄罗斯经济的鲜明特征。它们显示了自然资源的第一阶段开采和初级加工在该国东部经济中日益重要的作用。与此同时,领土不仅参与开采原材料的加工,而且参与设备的供应和提供工业和技术支助服务的程度也大大减少。作者认为,只有通过实施积极的空间和结构政策,才能克服这些不平衡。这一政策的一个重要特点是具体项目的税收、关税、科技监管等步骤和措施的相互联系和相互依存。
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引用次数: 0
Prospects for the development of Russia on a long wave of growth of a new technological order 俄罗斯的发展前景就在长波增长的新技术秩序上
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2023-2-76-27-32
S. Glaziev
Nanotechnologies are the key factor in the formation of a new technological order that has entered the growth phase. China and India form the core of a new (integral) world economic order, the main goal is to increase social welfare. Russia does not develop scientific and technical potential, does not master the institutions of the new order. The main reason is the significant underfunding of R&D. At the same time, the export of capital reached a critical value (240 billion dollars), part of the capital (foreign exchange reserves) was arrested. The positive trend of a decrease in the share of the EU and North America in Russian foreign economic activity is emphasized, with a sharp increase in the share of partners from Southeast Asia (India and China).
纳米技术是新技术秩序形成的关键因素,已进入生长阶段。中国和印度形成了一个新的(完整的)世界经济秩序的核心,主要目标是增加社会福利。俄罗斯没有发展科技潜力,没有掌握新秩序的制度。主要原因是研发资金严重不足。与此同时,资本输出达到了临界值(2400亿美元),部分资本(外汇储备)被扣押。强调了欧盟和北美在俄罗斯对外经济活动中所占份额下降的积极趋势,东南亚伙伴(印度和中国)所占份额急剧增加。
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引用次数: 0
Mechanisms and Tools of State Management of Industrial Development: Analysis of Modern Approaches and Potential Risks 产业发展国家管理的机制与工具:现代方法与风险分析
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2022-4-74-111-120
S. V. Kozlova
In the context of the problems of public administration of industrial development on a modern technological basis, new mechanisms and tools of public administration are considered. The emphasis is placed on the analysis of the mechanism of industrial mortgage, both risks and possible directions of development are investigated. A comparison is made with similar mechanisms of the 1990s.
在现代技术基础上工业发展的公共行政问题的范围内,审议了公共行政的新机制和工具。重点分析了产业抵押的机制,探讨了产业抵押的风险和可能的发展方向。并与上世纪90年代的类似机制进行了比较。
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引用次数: 0
Management of innovative processes in the new technological and world economic structures 管理新技术和世界经济结构中的创新过程
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2022-2-72-24-27
S. Glaziev
It is noted that during the pandemic there was a strong kick for bioengineering, as well as information and communication technologies, the transition to a new technological world is completed. At the same time, the shift to a new integrated global economic order has accelerated. Three options for its formation are presented: 1 ‒ the Chinese communist model; 2 ‒ the democratic system (demonstrated by India); 3 ‒ the system represented by the West. The first two options share the focus on the growth of public welfare. The third system (mainly in the United States and Great Britain) solves economic and political issues with the help of technologies for manipulating public consciousness. The opportunities for the EAEU countries (including Russia) are being considered, primarily the unused scientific and production potential due to inaccessible loans to finance working capital. It is shown that industrial production growth is possible in Russia due to import substitution, but to achieve this it is necessary to change the monetary policy. Export for rubles and not only to Europe is considered to be a positive factor. Thus, it is important that the proceeds are directed to lending to the manufacturing sector.
值得注意的是,在大流行期间,生物工程以及信息和通信技术得到了大力发展,向新的技术世界的过渡已经完成。与此同时,向新的一体化全球经济秩序的转变也在加速。它的形成有三种选择:1 -中国共产主义模式;2 -民主制度(以印度为例);3 -以西方为代表的体制。前两种选择都关注公益事业的发展。第三种制度(主要在美国和英国)借助操纵公众意识的技术来解决经济和政治问题。正在考虑欧亚经济联盟国家(包括俄罗斯)的机会,主要是由于无法获得贷款以筹措营运资金而未利用的科学和生产潜力。这表明,由于进口替代,俄罗斯的工业生产增长是可能的,但要实现这一目标,有必要改变货币政策。出口卢布,而不仅仅是对欧洲,被认为是一个积极的因素。因此,重要的是将所得款项用于向制造业部门提供贷款。
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引用次数: 5
Institutional Economics as a Scientific Basis for the Transition to a New Technological Order: Prospects and Conditions for Application 制度经济学作为向新技术秩序过渡的科学基础:前景与应用条件
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2022-4-74-57-67
I. Mankovsky
It is noted that the economic development of the Russian Federation takes place in the conditions of digitalization of the economy, the construction of an innovative type of economy with the subsequent transition to a new technological order. It is established that the goals of innovative development and the results to which the economy should come are legalized in the decree of the Government of the Russian Federation and, therefore, are mandatory for implementation. It is stated that achieving the goals of innovative development requires the development of an appropriate economic theory, the methodology of which is based on an interdisciplinary approach to the analysis of economic relations. It is argued that the neoclassical economic theory, which uses mathematics and econometrics as a tool for constructing theoretical models and verifying their validity, cannot be recommended for further use as a scientific basis for the digitalization of the economy and its development as an innovation-type economy. It is proposed as a scientific basis for building a new economic policy of the state in the conditions of digitalization of the economy to apply institutional economic theory as a scientific basis that meets the modern requirements of economic development, the methodology of which involves taking into account in the course of economic analysis various aspects of social interaction directly or indirectly capable of influencing the behavior of economic agents. A brief analysis of the publications of Russian scientists in the field of institutional economic theory is carried out, it is concluded that the basis for the development of Russian institutionalism are the scientific achievements of scientists from the USA and Great Britain, but, due to the fact that the scientific achievements of foreign scientists are based on the study of the institutional environment of the USA and Great Britain, which differs in fundamental aspects from the institutional environment of the Russian Federation, the conclusion is made about the need to adapt institutional economic theory to the Russian institutional environment. Proposals are made to carry out priority measures for the development of institutional economic theory corresponding to the political, legal and other social characteristics of the Russian Federation.
值得注意的是,俄罗斯联邦的经济发展是在经济数字化、创新型经济建设以及随后向新技术秩序过渡的条件下进行的。可以确定的是,创新发展的目标和经济应取得的成果已在俄罗斯联邦政府的法令中合法化,因此必须加以执行。报告指出,要实现创新发展的目标,就需要发展一种适当的经济理论,其方法是以跨学科的方法分析经济关系为基础的。本文认为,以数学和计量经济学为工具构建理论模型并验证其有效性的新古典经济理论,不适合作为经济数字化和创新型经济发展的科学依据。将制度经济学理论作为符合现代经济发展要求的科学依据,是在经济数字化条件下构建国家新经济政策的科学依据,其方法论包括在经济分析过程中考虑到能够直接或间接影响经济主体行为的社会互动的各个方面。对俄罗斯科学家在制度经济理论领域的著作进行了简要分析,认为俄罗斯制度主义发展的基础是美国和英国科学家的科学成果,但由于外国科学家的科学成果是建立在对美国和英国制度环境的研究基础之上的,在此基础上,提出了制度经济学理论与俄罗斯制度环境相适应的必要性。建议采取优先措施,发展符合俄罗斯联邦政治、法律和其他社会特点的制度经济理论。
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引用次数: 0
Imperatives of reindustrialization: regional aspect 再工业化的必要性:区域方面
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.37930/1990-9780-2021-4-70-175-185
G. Batov
The subject under study is characterized by the fact that they belong to problem regions and have exhausted the potential that was the driver of previous years and the main source of development. The current situation requires the elimination of the discrepancy that has developed between the existing development model and the need to move to a new paradigm. One of the options for implementing such a model could be reindustrialization. The reindustrialization process is focused on changing the technological structure. Before embarking on the implementation of this process, it is necessary to find out the state of the basis of the economy of the region under study. In this case, the most reliable scientific results can be obtained if the economy of a given region is studied on the basis of the theory of technological structures. The article uses aspects of the theory of the technological structure in the interpretation of domestic and foreign researchers, the methodology for determining the integral indicator of the state of the technological structure in the subjects of the region was applied, which (methodology) made it possible to establish that the third technological structure dominates in the economy of the studied region. It is substantiated that in order to transfer the economy to a new technological structure with the help of reindustrialization, it is necessary to use certain mechanisms that can ensure the progressive development of the economy. The study offers a list of different ways (mechanisms) of reindustrialization. It is concluded that the implementation of the proposed mechanisms will allow the region to move to a higher level of development.
正在研究的主题的特点是,它们属于问题区域,并且已经耗尽了作为前几年发展的动力和主要来源的潜力。目前的情况要求消除在现有发展模式和转向新模式的需要之间所产生的差异。实施这种模式的选择之一可能是再工业化。再工业化过程的重点是改变技术结构。在开始执行这一进程之前,有必要查明所研究区域的经济基础状况。在这种情况下,如果用技术结构理论来研究特定地区的经济,就能得到最可靠的科学结果。本文运用技术结构理论的各个方面对国内外研究者的解释,运用确定区域被试技术结构状态整体指标的方法,使第三技术结构在研究区域经济中占主导地位成为可能。实证表明,为了借助再工业化将经济转移到新的技术结构,需要使用一定的机制来保证经济的渐进式发展。该研究提供了一系列不同的再工业化方式(机制)。结论是,执行拟议的机制将使该区域能够进入更高的发展水平。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Economic Revival of Russia
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