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Beyond de-nuclearization: debating deterrence and North Korea in Asia’s new nuclear age 超越无核化:讨论亚洲新核时代的威慑与朝鲜
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-04-01 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1594783
N. Leveringhaus
ABSTRACT Review of : Jeffrey Lewis, The 2020 Commission report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks against the United States: a speculative novel (Mariner: New York, 2018); Van Jackson, On the Brink, Trump, Kim and the Threat of Nuclear War (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018); Sung Chull Kim and Michael D. Cohen, eds., Entering the new era of deterrence, North Korea and nuclear weapons (Washington DC: Georgetown University Press, 2017); and Victor D. Cha, and David C. Kang, Nuclear North Korea, a debate on engagement strategies, second edition (New York: Columbia University Press, 2018).
杰弗里·刘易斯:《2020年朝鲜核攻击美国委员会报告:一部投机小说》(水手出版社,纽约,2018);范·杰克逊,《边缘,特朗普,金正恩和核战争的威胁》(剑桥:剑桥大学出版社,2018);金成喆、迈克尔·d·科恩编。《进入威慑、朝鲜和核武器的新时代》(华盛顿特区:乔治城大学出版社,2017年);Victor D. Cha和David C. Kang,《核朝鲜:关于接触策略的辩论》,第二版(纽约:哥伦比亚大学出版社,2018年)。
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引用次数: 1
How terrorist actors in Pakistan use nuclear weapons for political influence 巴基斯坦的恐怖分子如何利用核武器来影响政治
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-03-14 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1582522
S. Joshi
ABSTRACT This article expands on the current research on nuclear terrorism by investigating how terrorist actors seek to capitalize on the nuclear weapons discourse in a country to gain domestic political influence. Existing research on nuclear terrorism has focused on operational aspects – attacks using nuclear materials and weapons, or attacks on nuclear facilities. This article focuses on the rhetorical use of nuclear weapons issues using the case of Pakistan, which has a substantial nuclear weapons complex, widespread domestic support for nuclear weapons, and numerous jihadist terrorist groups. It argues that some terrorist groups (Lashkar-e-Taiba, and the Pakistani Taliban) are increasingly participating in the nuclear discourse for political influence and to transform themselves as mainstream political actors. They portray themselves as the champions of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons against perceived threats from external actors, especially the United States, and aim to push Pakistani nuclear policy toward an Islamist and jihadist ideological framework.
本文通过调查恐怖分子如何寻求利用一个国家的核武器话语来获得国内政治影响力,扩展了目前对核恐怖主义的研究。对核恐怖主义的现有研究侧重于操作方面——使用核材料和核武器进行攻击,或攻击核设施。本文以巴基斯坦为例,重点讨论核武器的修辞使用问题。巴基斯坦拥有大量核武器,国内对核武器的广泛支持,以及众多圣战恐怖组织。报告认为,一些恐怖组织(虔诚军和巴基斯坦塔利班)正越来越多地参与核话语,以获得政治影响力,并将自己转变为主流政治行动者。他们把自己描绘成巴基斯坦核武器的捍卫者,反对外界的威胁,尤其是美国的威胁,并旨在将巴基斯坦的核政策推向伊斯兰主义和圣战主义的意识形态框架。
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引用次数: 4
Threat and opportunity: Chinese wedging in the Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute 威胁与机遇:中国介入尖阁列岛/钓鱼岛争端
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-02-12 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1567493
Andrew Taffer
ABSTRACT This paper provides the first systematic analysis of China’s conduct in its offshore territorial conflict with Japan to contend that Beijing has adopted a wedging strategy aimed at weakening the U.S.-Japan alliance. Building on previous scholarship, the article demonstrates that over the post-Cold War era China has consistently subordinated its territorial interests in the Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute to help advance broader political and strategic goals. Drawing on Chinese writings, I argue that since 2010 Beijing has viewed U.S. and Japanese strategy in the conflict to be intended to contain it and that the empirical record suggests China’s conduct has, in turn, sought to counter this perceived threat by weakening the alliance at its core. Beijing, it is argued, has aimed to sow discord in the U.S.-Japan alliance by “making use of contradictions” perceived to afflict U.S. strategy.
本文首次系统分析了中国在与日本近海领土冲突中的行为,认为北京采取了旨在削弱美日联盟的楔子战略。基于以往的学术研究,本文表明,在后冷战时代,中国一直将其在尖阁列岛/钓鱼岛争端中的领土利益置于从属地位,以帮助推进更广泛的政治和战略目标。根据中国的著作,我认为,自2010年以来,北京一直认为美国和日本在冲突中的战略是为了遏制它,而经验记录表明,中国的行为反过来又试图通过削弱同盟的核心来对抗这种感知到的威胁。有人认为,北京的目的是通过“利用矛盾”来影响美国的战略,从而在美日同盟中播下不和的种子。
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引用次数: 5
Managing Small Allies Amidst Patron–Adversary Rapprochement: A Tale of Two Koreas 在恩人与敌手的和解中管理小盟友:两个朝鲜的故事
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-10 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2018.1551883
Audrye Wong
ABSTRACT What explains variation in how a patron manages its existing alliance with a client state when improving relations with an adversary? I theorize that the patron’s alliance management strategy is influenced by the client’s degree of bargaining power over its patron. Bargaining power derives from the availability of an outside option. Using archival and interview evidence, I show variation in alliance bargaining dynamics during US–China rapprochement. While the United States was dismissive toward South Korea, China was highly placating toward North Korea, making concessions and providing compensation. However, China became more dismissive during Sino-South Korean normalization, when North Korea’s bargaining power decreased. The findings have important policy implications for understanding how a patron could simultaneously manage alliance and adversary relationships.
如何解释赞助人在改善与对手的关系时如何管理与附庸国的现有联盟的变化?我的理论认为,赞助人的联盟管理策略受到客户对其赞助人议价能力程度的影响。议价能力来自外部选择的可用性。利用档案和访谈证据,我展示了中美和解期间联盟议价动态的变化。美国对韩国表现出轻蔑的态度,而中国对朝鲜则表现出高度的安抚、让步和补偿。然而,在中韩关系正常化期间,当朝鲜的议价能力下降时,中国变得更加不屑一顾。研究结果对理解赞助人如何同时管理联盟和对手关系具有重要的政策意义。
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引用次数: 2
“A Cat’s Paw of Indian Reactionaries”? Strategic Rivalry and Domestic Politics at the India–China–Myanmar Tri-Junction “印度反动派的猫爪”?印中缅三国交界的战略对抗与国内政治
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-05 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2018.1551884
Avinash Paliwal
ABSTRACT Ostensibly driven by concerns over a military standoff with China similar to Doklam, India increased military deployment at the Myanmar tri-junction. This article assesses the inevitability of systemic factors such as rivalry with China in determining India’s approach on border issues. It asks why India sought formalization of its boundary with Burma in 1967. Given its territorial disputes with China, resolving the Burma boundary should have been high priority. Still, it took India two decades after independence to broach the subject. Based on fresh archival and interview data, this article answers the question by examining the India–Burma Boundary Agreement. A three-party territorial dispute, the making of this agreement witnessed simultaneous interplay between states with visible power differentials, and various stakeholders within India’s polity and bureaucracy. The article argues that even when inter-state competition is apparent, domestic factors may be more important in triggering foreign policy change.
表面上是出于对与中国发生类似洞朗的军事对峙的担忧,印度增加了在缅甸三方交界处的军事部署。本文评估了与中国竞争等系统性因素在决定印度在边界问题上的做法方面的必然性。它问为什么印度在1967年寻求与缅甸的正式边界。考虑到与中国的领土争端,解决与缅甸的边界问题应该是重中之重。然而,印度在独立20年后才提出这个问题。本文根据最新的档案资料和采访资料,通过考察印缅边界协议来回答这个问题。这是一个三方领土争端,该协议的达成见证了具有明显权力差异的国家之间的相互作用,以及印度政治和官僚机构内部的各种利益相关者。文章认为,即使国家间的竞争很明显,国内因素在引发外交政策变化方面可能更为重要。
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引用次数: 2
The Reality of Protecting the Rohingya: An Inherent Limitation of the Responsibility to Protect 保护罗兴亚人的现实:保护责任的内在局限
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-11-23 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2018.1547709
Yukiko Nishikawa
ABSTRACT This article explores the applicability of the notion of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in reference to the crisis faced by the Rohingya in Myanmar, and it discusses why the R2P has limited usefulness in certain cases. Since R2P came to be recognized by ASEAN, ongoing community-building activities within the ASEAN led to optimism that member countries would give increased attention to human rights, despite the organization’s historic practice of non-intervention in individual states’ internal affairs. However, the ASEAN’s stance regarding the Rohingya crisis can be described as all talk and no action. While recognizing the value of the R2P in protecting people from mass atrocities in certain contexts, the article points out the critical flaw that R2P rests on a particular discourse of sovereignty. Thus, it argues that the R2P not only has limited usefulness in the case of the Rohingya (whom Myanmar treats as stateless non-citizens) but could even exacerbate the situation.
本文探讨了保护责任(R2P)概念在缅甸罗兴亚人面临的危机中的适用性,并讨论了为什么R2P在某些情况下用处有限。自从R2P得到东盟的认可后,东盟内部持续进行的社区建设活动使人们乐观地认为,尽管该组织历来不干涉个别国家的内政,但成员国将更加关注人权。然而,东盟对罗兴亚危机的立场可以说是光说不做。在承认R2P在某些情况下保护人们免受大规模暴行的价值的同时,文章指出了R2P建立在主权的特定话语上的关键缺陷。因此,它认为,R2P不仅在罗兴亚人(缅甸将他们视为无国籍的非公民)的情况下用处有限,而且甚至可能使局势恶化。
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引用次数: 6
Introduction: Revisiting the security dilemma through the lens of India–China relations 导读:通过印中关系重新审视安全困境
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-11-15 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1539821
R. Basrur, A. Mukherjee, T. V. Paul
ABSTRACT This introduction explains the rationale for this special issue of Asian Security. It begins with a short discussion about the relevance and the utility of the term “security dilemma” in international relations. The concept, which emerged during the Cold War, has since been used extensively to describe India-China relations. This special issue attempts to add to our understanding of the India–China relationship as well as to contribute to enriching the theoretical literature in a number of ways. First, it represents the first detailed effort to present a set of analyses that encompasses theory, history, and the full spectrum of strategic issue areas to explain the dynamics of a key contemporary inter-state relationship involving China and India. Second, the analysis reveals the complexity of security dilemma politics by highlighting how states respond to their predicament in different ways. Third, this special issue draws attention to an area that has been largely neglected in the literature: the relationship between the security dilemma as a concept and domestic politics. Finally, a case can be made that a security dilemma-type response in a situation that does not demand it may actually create a dilemma where none existed before. These and other complexities are abundant in this collection of articles. The chapter concludes by summarizing the main arguments presented by the contributors to this special issue.
导言部分阐述了本期《亚洲安全》特刊的基本原理。本文首先简要讨论了“安全困境”一词在国际关系中的相关性和实用性。这一概念出现于冷战时期,此后被广泛用于描述印中关系。本期特刊试图增加我们对印中关系的理解,并以多种方式为丰富理论文献做出贡献。首先,它代表了第一次详细的努力,提出了一套分析,包括理论、历史和全面的战略问题领域,以解释当代涉及中国和印度的关键国家间关系的动态。其次,分析通过强调各国如何以不同的方式应对其困境,揭示了安全困境政治的复杂性。第三,这一特殊问题引起了人们对一个在文献中基本上被忽视的领域的关注:安全困境作为一个概念与国内政治之间的关系。最后,可以提出这样一种情况:在不需要它的情况下,安全困境类型的响应实际上可能会造成以前不存在的困境。这些和其他复杂性在这个文章集中非常丰富。本章最后总结了本期特刊作者提出的主要论点。
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引用次数: 4
The dilemmas of regional states: How Southeast Asian states view and respond to India–China maritime competition 地区国家的困境:东南亚国家如何看待和应对印中海上竞争
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-11-13 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1539819
Sinderpal Singh
ABSTRACT This article examines contemporary perceptions and the corresponding responses of Southeast Asian states vis-à-vis India–China maritime competition. Specifically, it examines the cases of Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines. These countries provide useful cross-comparisons as, bilaterally, all three states relate uniquely to China and the maritime disputes in the South China Sea on the basis of two structural conditions – their formal security relationship with the US and whether they are a claimant state in the South China Sea dispute. The link between the range afforded by these three cases and the manner in which it drives their perceptions towards India–China maritime competition forms the core of this article. These three countries perceive differing levels of threat from China and have chosen a range of external balancing strategies to deal with these perceived threats. The nature of US–China and India–China security competition, the latter specifically in the maritime realm, structures the external balancing strategies they have pursued. There are, this article argues, important links between US–China and India–China strategic competition in structuring the external balancing strategies these countries pursue.
本文考察了东南亚国家对-à-vis印中海上竞争的当代看法和相应的反应。具体来说,它考察了新加坡、越南和菲律宾的情况。这些国家提供了有用的交叉比较,因为在双边关系上,这三个国家都是基于两个结构性条件——它们与美国的正式安全关系,以及它们是否是南中国海争端的声索国——与中国和南中国海的海洋争端有独特的关系。这三个案例所提供的范围与它们对印中海上竞争的看法之间的联系构成了本文的核心。这三个国家对来自中国的威胁程度不同,并选择了一系列外部平衡战略来应对这些威胁。中美和印中安全竞争的本质,特别是在海洋领域,构成了他们所追求的外部平衡战略。本文认为,中美和印中战略竞争在构建这些国家追求的外部平衡战略方面存在重要联系。
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引用次数: 4
From Denial to Punishment: The Security Dilemma and Changes in India’s Military Strategy towards China 从否认到惩罚:印度对华军事战略的安全困境与变化
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-11-09 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1539817
Yogesh Joshi, A. Mukherjee
ABSTRACT This article argues that China’s rise and its growing military power have intensified the Sino-Indian security dilemma. For a long time after the 1962 war, India’s military posture along the India–China border was mostly defensive in nature and could be characterized as imposing “deterrence by denial.” However, over the last decade, China’s growth trajectory coupled with rapid modernization of its military called into question the efficacy of this approach. India now feels much more vulnerable to China’s increasing military power both on the land frontier as well as in the maritime domain. The increasing intensity of this security dilemma has informed a consequent shift in India’s military strategy vis-à-vis China to one of “deterrence by punishment.” Theoretically, this article examines how changes in the severity of a security dilemma can lead to changes in military strategy. While doing so it explains India’s current military strategy to deal with the challenge posed by China.
摘要本文认为,中国的崛起及其日益增长的军事实力加剧了中印的安全困境。1962年中印战争后的很长一段时间里,印度在中印边境的军事姿态基本上是防御性的,可以被描述为“拒止威慑”。然而,在过去的十年中,中国的增长轨迹加上其军事的快速现代化,使这种方法的有效性受到质疑。面对中国日益增强的军事力量,无论是在陆地边界还是在海洋领域,印度现在都感到更加脆弱。这种日益加剧的安全困境导致印度对中国的军事战略转变为“以惩罚威慑”。从理论上讲,本文探讨了安全困境严重程度的变化如何导致军事战略的变化。与此同时,它解释了印度目前应对中国挑战的军事战略。
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引用次数: 19
Strategic Selection: Philippine Arbitration in the South China Sea Dispute 战略选择:菲律宾在南海争端中的仲裁
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-11-05 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2018.1540468
Krista E. Wiegand, Erik Beuck
ABSTRACT East Asian states infrequently seek peaceful dispute resolution through binding methods of international law. What is puzzling is why states seek one particular dispute resolution method or another, and in the specific case of the Philippines, why the government chose to pursue arbitration against China regarding the maritime boundaries of the disputed Spratly Islands, knowing that China would not agree to participate. In this article, we theorize that the Philippine government chose to pursue arbitration against China for three strategic reasons: 1) to counterbalance China’s military actions in the South China Sea, 2) because of the strong benefits to the state resulting from using arbitration, and 3) the probability of winning the case using arbitration was perceived by the Philippines as strong. To test our hypotheses, we use interviews and process tracing, through which we find evidence for our suppositions, primarily the last hypothesis.
东亚国家很少通过具有约束力的国际法方法寻求和平解决争端。令人费解的是,为什么国家会寻求一种或另一种特定的争端解决方法,在菲律宾的具体情况下,为什么政府明知中国不会同意参与,却选择就有争议的南沙群岛的海洋边界对中国进行仲裁。在本文中,我们推测菲律宾政府选择对中国进行仲裁有三个战略原因:1)抗衡中国在南中国海的军事行动,2)因为使用仲裁给国家带来的巨大利益,以及3)菲律宾认为通过仲裁赢得案件的可能性很大。为了验证我们的假设,我们使用访谈和过程追踪,通过这些方法,我们为我们的假设找到证据,主要是最后一个假设。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
Asian Security
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