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Islamic Campus Preaching Organizations in Indonesia: Promoters of Moderation or Radicalism? 印尼伊斯兰校园宣教组织:中庸还是激进?
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2018.1461086
Alexander R. Arifianto
ABSTRACT This article asks whether campus preaching organizations such as the Indonesian Muslim Students Islamic Union (KAMMI) and Hizb ut-Tahrir Indonesia (HTI) serve as potential breeding grounds for radicalism or, alternatively, do they serve as institutions that promote political moderation and prevent radical action among young university-age Muslims. Utilizing insights from inclusion-moderation thesis, it concludes the answer to these questions depends on whether these groups are willing to accept Indonesia’s democratic political system. These determine the tactics the groups chose to promote their agenda to potential recruits. While KAMMI is willing to moderate its strategies, HTI is unwilling to do so and continues to promote its agenda through secretive means, although it formally rejects radicalism and extremism.
本文探讨的问题是,印尼穆斯林学生伊斯兰联盟(KAMMI)和印尼伊斯兰解放党(HTI)等校园传教组织是否成为激进主义的潜在滋生地,或者,它们是否作为促进政治温和和防止年轻大学年龄穆斯林激进行动的机构。利用包容性适度理论的见解,它得出结论,这些问题的答案取决于这些群体是否愿意接受印度尼西亚的民主政治制度。这些决定了这些组织在向潜在的新兵宣传他们的议程时所选择的策略。虽然KAMMI愿意缓和其策略,但HTI不愿意这样做,并继续通过秘密手段推进其议程,尽管它正式拒绝激进主义和极端主义。
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引用次数: 49
Parallel governance and political order in contested territory: Evidence from the Indo-Naga ceasefire 争议地区的平行治理和政治秩序:来自印度-那迦停火的证据
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2018.1455185
Shalaka Thakur, R. Venugopal
ABSTRACT The reconstruction of stable political order after violent conflict is a central concern of peacebuilding theory and practice. While much of the literature on this subject is based on cases where there has been state collapse or international intervention, this article draws on a case study from India’s northeast, where a long-standing separatist insurgency has given way to a stable and protracted ceasefire. Drawing on fieldwork from Ukhrul district in the India–Myanmar border, the article studies the parallel military structures and civilian governance institutions and the nature of their interaction. In doing so, it evaluates the consequences of the ceasefire political equilibrium in terms of the larger project of conflict resolution and a permanent political resolution.
暴力冲突后稳定政治秩序的重建是建设和平理论与实践的核心问题。虽然关于这一主题的许多文献都是基于国家崩溃或国际干预的案例,但本文借鉴了印度东北部的一个案例研究,在那里,长期存在的分离主义叛乱已经让位于稳定和持久的停火。通过对印缅边境乌克鲁尔地区的实地考察,本文研究了平行的军事结构和文职治理机构及其相互作用的性质。在这样做时,它从解决冲突和永久政治解决的更大项目的角度来评价停火政治平衡的后果。
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引用次数: 15
On the Verge of an Alliance: Contemporary China-Russia Military Cooperation 在结盟的边缘:当代中俄军事合作
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2018.1463991
A. Korolev
ABSTRACT The deterioration of Russia-US relations as a consequence of the Ukraine crisis and growing tensions in US-China relations have given rise to the perception that China–-Russia relations are an actual or incipient alliance. However, the alliance elements in China-Russia relations have never been systematically defined and empirically assessed, which makes assessing alliance dynamics in these important bilateral relations difficult. This article develops and applies a set of empirical criteria for an alliance to define how closely the post-Cold War China-Russia military relations have approached the alliance condition. It demonstrates that China and Russia have created strong institutional foundations for an alliance, and now only minor steps are necessary for a formal and functioning military alliance to materialize. However, the occurrence of such steps is not yet guaranteed.
乌克兰危机导致俄美关系恶化,中美关系日益紧张,这使得人们认为中俄关系是一个实际的或初期的联盟。然而,中俄关系中的联盟要素从未被系统地定义和实证评估,这使得评估这些重要双边关系中的联盟动态变得困难。本文发展并应用了一套联盟的经验标准来界定冷战后中俄军事关系接近联盟条件的程度。这表明中国和俄罗斯已经为联盟建立了强大的制度基础,现在只需要一些小步骤就可以实现正式和有效的军事联盟。然而,还不能保证这些步骤的发生。
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引用次数: 44
Chinese Evolving Approaches to Nuclear “War-Fighting”: An Emerging Intense US–China Security Dilemma and Threats to Crisis Stability in the Asia Pacific 中国不断演变的核“作战”方法:一个正在出现的激烈的美中安全困境和对亚太危机稳定的威胁
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2018.1443915
James Johnson
ABSTRACT This article argues that current passive and static conceptualizations of Chinese approaches to nuclear and conventional deterrence are no longer appropriate. Recent evidence indicates that these postures are far more integrated, flexible, and dynamic than Beijing’s official rhetoric suggests, and that during the past decade a de facto shift toward a limited nuclear war-fighting posture has already taken place. By applying an International Relations (IR) structural-realist lens to conceptualize a relatively under-researched discourse that relates to recent indications that China is contemplating the deployment of nuclear weapons for war-fighting (or victory-denial) purposes. A radical doctrinal shift of this kind (or even the perception of one) could presage a paradigm shift in China’s long-standing nuclear posture and the nuclear balance in Asia.
摘要本文认为,目前对中国核威慑和常规威慑方法的被动和静态概念不再合适。最近的证据表明,这些姿态远比北京的官方言论所暗示的更完整、更灵活、更有活力,而且在过去十年中,事实上已经发生了向有限核战争姿态的转变。通过运用国际关系(IR)结构现实主义的视角,将一个相对缺乏研究的话语概念化,该话语与最近中国正在考虑部署核武器用于战争(或否认胜利)目的的迹象有关。这种激进的理论转变(甚至是人们的看法)可能预示着中国长期以来的核态势和亚洲核平衡的范式转变。
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引用次数: 6
Campaign rhetoric and Chinese reactions to new leaders 竞选言论和中国对新领导人的反应
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-08-17 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1651717
Kacie Miura, J. Weiss
ABSTRACT Although China tends to be an important topic in election campaigns, the consequences of this rhetoric have not been systematically examined. We highlight the process by which China uses campaign rhetoric to make inferences about the intentions of new leaders in the US, Taiwan, and Japan. We identify two key criteria – consistency and change – that guide Chinese assessments. In turn, three patterns define Chinese policy toward new administrations: proactive engagement when campaign rhetoric is consistent with other indicators of policy change; reactive engagement when rhetoric is consistent with continuity; and a wait and see approach when rhetoric is inconsistent with the candidate’s past actions and the reputation of close advisors. Our findings push back against arguments linking leadership transitions to international conflict. Rather than testing the resolve of new leaders with military probes, foreign states can use information overheard during elections to gauge their counterparts’ intentions and ensure stability immediately after elections.
尽管中国在竞选活动中往往是一个重要的话题,但这种言论的后果尚未得到系统的研究。我们强调了中国利用竞选言辞来推断美国、台湾和日本新领导人意图的过程。我们确定了指导中国评估的两个关键标准——一致性和变化。反过来,三种模式定义了中国对新政府的政策:当竞选言论与政策变化的其他指标一致时,积极参与;当修辞与连续性相一致时,被动参与;当言论与候选人过去的行为和亲密顾问的声誉不一致时,他们会采取观望的态度。我们的研究结果反驳了将领导层更迭与国际冲突联系起来的观点。与其用军事调查来测试新领导人的决心,外国政府可以利用在选举期间听到的信息来判断对方的意图,并确保选举后立即实现稳定。
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引用次数: 0
Review Essay: Stabilizing Nuclear Southern Asia 评论文章:稳定核南亚
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-05-30 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1620207
F. O'Donnell
ABSTRACT This review article considers three significant volumes recently published in the field of Southern Asian security studies. These consist of Not War, Not Peace? Motivating Pakistan to Prevent Cross-Border Terrorism, by Toby Dalton and George Perkovich; Sameer Lalwani and Hannah Haegeland (eds.), Investigating Crises: South Asia’s Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories; and Mooed Yusuf, Brokering Peace in Nuclear Environments: U.S. Crisis Management in South Asia. In the wake of the 2019 India–Pakistan Pulwama militarized crisis, each book focuses on a distinct element of the Southern Asian security milieu that is crucial to understanding drivers of regional insecurity and potential pathways toward greater stability. However, collectively, they leave room for greater exploration for the effects of emerging trends in this regional strategic competition. These include the evolving regional preferences and actions of China, the potential for Pakistan-based terrorist groups to become independent actors throughout a Southern Asian crisis, and the growing prominence of precision-strike standoff weapons in the strategic planning of China, India, and Pakistan. Still, these three volumes prove indispensable for understanding the contemporary political and security dynamics of Southern Asia.
摘要:本文回顾了南亚安全研究领域最近出版的三本重要著作。这包括:不是战争,不是和平?托比·道尔顿和乔治·佩尔科维奇的《激励巴基斯坦防止跨境恐怖主义》;Sameer Lalwani和Hannah Haegeland主编,《调查危机:南亚的教训、演变的动力和轨迹》;moed Yusuf,《在核环境中促成和平:美国在南亚的危机管理》。在2019年印巴普尔瓦马军事危机之后,每本书都关注南亚安全环境的一个独特因素,这对于理解地区不安全的驱动因素和实现更大稳定的潜在途径至关重要。然而,总的来说,它们为进一步探索这一区域战略竞争新趋势的影响留下了空间。其中包括中国不断变化的地区偏好和行动,巴基斯坦恐怖组织在南亚危机中成为独立行动者的潜力,以及精确打击对峙武器在中国、印度和巴基斯坦的战略规划中日益突出。尽管如此,这三卷书对于理解当代南亚的政治和安全动态是不可或缺的。
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引用次数: 0
Shinzo Abe's Indo-Pacific Strategy: Japan's recent achievement and future direction 安倍的印太战略:日本近期成就与未来方向
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-05-16 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1607304
Noriyuki Katagiri
ABSTRACT I use IR theories to investigate Japanese foreign policy between 2012 and 2017. I make two arguments. First, I argue that the best theoretical combination to explain Japanese foreign policy under Abe is one of defensive realism and liberalism, with focus on the economic aspects of regional partnerships. Japan has followed a traditional realist approach in security policy, but he has adopted a more activist and broader economic vision in his approach. Second, this analysis reflects Japan’s expansive search of strategic allies in Southeast Asia and beyond; behind the security rivalry and economic partnership with China is the emergence of a geographically wider security architecture coupled with robust economic networks in Southeast Asia and South Asia. In effect, the Abe government has increased ties with India through trade and investment, and reinvigorated the existing diplomatic effort with Southeast and South Asia in a comprehensive package of security and economic initiative.
本文运用IR理论对2012 - 2017年日本外交政策进行了研究。我有两个论点。首先,我认为,解释安倍领导下的日本外交政策的最佳理论组合是防御性现实主义和自由主义,重点是区域伙伴关系的经济方面。日本在安全政策上遵循传统的现实主义方针,但安倍在其方针中采取了更积极、更广阔的经济视野。其次,这一分析反映出日本在东南亚及其他地区广泛寻找战略盟友;在与中国的安全竞争和经济伙伴关系背后,是一个地理上更广泛的安全架构的出现,以及东南亚和南亚强大的经济网络。实际上,安倍政府通过贸易和投资加强了与印度的关系,并在一项全面的安全和经济倡议中重振了与东南亚和南亚现有的外交努力。
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引用次数: 15
Assessing public opinion’s influence on foreign policy: the case of China’s assertive maritime behavior 评估公众舆论对外交政策的影响:以中国自信的海上行为为例
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2018.1437723
A. Chubb
ABSTRACT English-language analysis of Chinese foreign policy has often cited nationalist public opinion as a key driver of Beijing’s recent assertive maritime conduct. Yet these important conjectures have not been systematically tested. How can we know whether public opinion has been driving an authoritarian state’s foreign policy? What are some cases in which concern about popular nationalism may have influenced Beijing’s behavior in disputed maritime spaces? To answer these questions, this article constructs a methodological framework for assessing the likely impact of public opinion on particular instances of state action. Applying this to five cases typical of China’s on-water policy in the South and East China Seas since 2007 indicates that popular nationalism has had little to do with China’s assertive turn on its maritime periphery.
对中国外交政策的英文分析经常将民族主义公众舆论视为中国近期强硬海上行为的关键驱动因素。然而,这些重要的猜想还没有得到系统的检验。我们如何知道公众舆论是否一直在推动一个威权国家的外交政策?在哪些情况下,对流行民族主义的担忧可能影响了北京在有争议海域的行为?为了回答这些问题,本文构建了一个方法框架,用于评估公众舆论对国家行动的特定实例可能产生的影响。将这一观点应用到中国自2007年以来在南海和东海的五个典型的水上政策案例中可以发现,中国在其海洋周边地区的强硬转向与流行的民族主义几乎没有关系。
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引用次数: 13
Domestic politics of Chinese foreign policy: where will Xi Jinping bring China?
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1594782
H. Takeuchi
ABSTRACT Xi Jinping has concentrated his power since he acceded to the Chinese presidency. Where will Xi bring China? In this review essay I discuss four single-authored books – one in English and three in Japanese – to explore security implications of Xi’s reform and foreign policies. In her recent book, Elizabeth Economy is critical of Xi, arguing that he is turning away from Deng Xiaoping’s reform and internationalist policies. The three Japanese China specialists concur, and further highlight the interconnectedness of domestic politics and international relations. In sum, the four books show that Xi has struggled to commit to the state-owned enterprise reform and to cooperative foreign policy due to Chinese domestic politics, and as a result, has threatened regional security in the Asia-Pacific.
三位日本中国问题专家对此表示赞同,并进一步强调了国内政治与国际关系的相互联系。
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引用次数: 7
Hiding in Plain Sight? Japan’s Militarization of Space and Challenges to the Yoshida Doctrine 隐藏在众目睽睽之下?日本太空军事化及其对吉田主义的挑战
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2018.1439017
P. Kallender, C. Hughes
ABSTRACT Japan’s security discourse – despite accelerating shifts in its security stance over the last two decades, and more recently, under the Abe administration – remains dominated by views of essential continuity and maintenance of the “Yoshida Doctrine.” The case of Japan’s militarization of space is used to create a framework for systematically dismantling default assumptions about the durability of the Yoshida Doctrine. The militarization of space serves as a driver of broader trends in Japan’s security policy manifested in the procurement of dual-use assets in launch systems, communications and intelligence satellites, and counterspace capabilities necessary for active internal and external balancing with the US–Japan alliance; the strengthening domestically of security policymaking institutions; and the jettisoning of anti-militaristic norms. Japan’s increasingly assertive military stance, bolstering of the US–Japan alliance and cessation of hedging, facing down of China’s rise, and departure from the Yoshida Doctrine as grand strategy are thus revealed as hiding in plain sight.
日本的安全话语——尽管在过去二十年中,以及最近在安倍政府的领导下,其安全立场发生了加速变化——仍然被“吉田主义”的本质连续性和维护观点所主导。日本太空军事化的案例被用来创建一个框架,系统地瓦解关于吉田主义持久性的默认假设。太空军事化是日本安全政策更广泛趋势的驱动因素,体现在采购发射系统、通信和情报卫星等军民两用资产,以及与美日联盟保持积极内外平衡所必需的太空对抗能力;加强国内安全决策机构;以及对反军国主义规范的抛弃。日本日益强硬的军事姿态、加强美日同盟、停止对冲、打压中国崛起、背离吉田主义大战略,这些都是明目张心的。
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引用次数: 18
期刊
Asian Security
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