Atmospheric Environment: X最新文献_第5页

Where particulates matter: High-rise construction emissions of PM2.5, PM10, BC, and UFP in Dutch cities 颗粒物在哪里：荷兰城市高层建筑排放的PM2.5、PM10、BC和UFP

IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Environment: X

Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100373

Gabriel Aranda Morales , Abhiramini M. Rajiv , Titus Venverloo , Juliane L. Fry

Construction sites are major sources of particulate matter pollution to cities, with heavy diesel equipment producing ultrafine particulate matter (UFP), black carbon (BC), and contributing (alongside earth-moving activities) to emissions of fine (PM_2.5) and coarse (PM₁₀) dust. These air pollutants are hazardous to the health of those working or living within their plumes. Hence, in this study we characterize the short-term pollutant concentrations at three construction sites in the Netherlands. We measured concentrations of four pollutants at three early-stage high-rise construction sites in Rotterdam and Amsterdam. We find that among the pollutants measured, UFP number concentrations are most strongly correlated with construction activities, with construction site concentrations at high levels of activity ∼20,000 # cm⁻³, while concentrations during periods without construction activity are <5000 # cm⁻³. Although we can attribute concentration peaks to specific pieces of construction equipment, there were no strong correlations between UFPs and the measured concentrations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, as these latter particles have different sources in construction sites (e.g. earthmoving equipment) and in urban settings, as well as longer atmospheric lifetimes. At a relatively more isolated site with one major piece of diesel equipment, we do observe a strong correlation between UFP and BC (R = 0.62), suggesting that such measurements can be used to obtain emissions ratios. As new regulatory standards are being developed for health-hazardous UFP, knowledge of their number concentrations at and near construction sites will be crucial to developing source apportionments and dispersion modeling. We recommend increased measurement of UFP at construction sites, including the use of wearable monitors, to better understand exposure, and creating incentives to shift from diesel to electrical equipment wherever possible.

建筑工地是城市颗粒物污染的主要来源，重型柴油设备会产生超细颗粒物（UFP）和黑碳（BC），除了土方活动外，还会排放细颗粒物（PM2.5）和粗颗粒物（PM10）。这些空气污染物对在其烟雾中工作或生活的人的健康有害。因此，在本研究中，我们描述了荷兰三个建筑工地的短期污染物浓度。我们在鹿特丹和阿姆斯特丹的三个早期高层建筑工地测量了四种污染物的浓度。我们发现，在测量到的污染物中，UFP数浓度与建筑活动的相关性最强，建筑工地的UFP浓度处于高活动水平~ 20,000 # cm - 3，而在没有建筑活动期间的UFP浓度为<；5000 # cm - 3。虽然我们可以将浓度峰值归因于特定的建筑设备，但ufp与PM2.5和PM10的测量浓度之间没有很强的相关性，因为后者在建筑工地（例如土方设备）和城市环境中有不同的来源，并且大气寿命更长。在一个相对孤立的地点，只有一个主要的柴油设备，我们确实观察到UFP和BC之间有很强的相关性（R = 0.62），这表明这种测量可以用来获得排放比。由于正在为危害健康的超射光物质制定新的管理标准，因此了解建筑工地及其附近的超射光物质数量浓度对于制定来源分摊和扩散模型至关重要。我们建议在建筑工地增加对UFP的测量，包括使用可穿戴监视器，以更好地了解暴露情况，并尽可能鼓励从柴油设备转向电气设备。

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引用次数: 0

Effects of different ammonia emission reduction strategies from livestock farming on ambient ammonia concentrations in nature areas: a series of scenario analyses 畜牧业不同氨减排策略对自然地区环境氨浓度的影响：一系列情景分析

IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Environment: X

Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100370

Demi van Wijk , Ceder R. Raben , Hans J. Erbrink , Dick J.J. Heederik , Wietske Dohmen

Excessive nitrogen deposition is a major problem in nature areas, causing soil acidification and eutrophication, which reduces biodiversity. In the Netherlands, most nitrogen originates from ammonia emissions related to agriculture. This study investigates how various ammonia emission reduction strategies affect spatial patterns of livestock-related ambient ammonia levels, focusing on nature areas near a livestock-dense region. The aim is to provide insights into effects of interventions on environmental exposure levels and efficiency of mitigation strategies. Using dispersion modeling, annual average patterns of ambient ammonia levels were estimated per scenario, considering emissions from approximately 4500 farms. Results indicate that scenarios involving significant reductions in ammonia emissions (54–86 %), achieved through technical or management modifications or farm removal, result in substantial reductions (62–87 %) in ambient ammonia levels within nature areas. Targeted strategies aimed at specific sectors that contribute most to ammonia levels in nature areas achieved relatively modest absolute reductions (8–13 %) but generally higher efficiency compared to more generic approaches. Scenario efficiency, defined as the ratio between emission/concentration reduction, varied considerably from 0.5 to 1.3. This variations underscores the importance of assessing spatial ammonia patterns rather than focusing and relying solely on emission reduction expressed in terms of total mass. The efficiency of reduction strategies depends on the geographical distribution of (sector-specific) farms near nature areas, and emission height from these farms. Therefore, combined strategies explicitly targeting these factors, such as integrating spatially focused measures (e.g., zoning) with generic emission reductions, are expected most effective in reducing ammonia concentrations in nature areas.

过量的氮沉降是自然地区的一个主要问题，造成土壤酸化和富营养化，减少了生物多样性。在荷兰，大部分氮来自与农业有关的氨排放。本研究以家畜密集区附近的自然区域为研究对象，探讨了不同的氨减排策略对家畜相关环境氨水平空间格局的影响。其目的是深入了解干预措施对环境暴露水平的影响和缓解战略的效率。利用弥散模型，考虑到大约4500个农场的排放，估算了每个情景下环境氨水平的年平均模式。结果表明，通过技术或管理修改或农场搬迁实现的氨排放显著减少（54% - 86%）的情景导致自然区域内环境氨水平大幅降低（62% - 87%）。针对对自然地区氨水平贡献最大的特定部门的有针对性的战略实现了相对适度的绝对减少（8 - 13%），但与更通用的方法相比，总体上效率更高。情景效率，定义为排放/浓度减少之间的比率，在0.5到1.3之间变化很大。这种差异强调了评估空间氨格局的重要性，而不是仅仅关注和依赖以总质量表示的排放量减少。减排策略的效率取决于靠近自然区域的（特定行业的）农场的地理分布，以及这些农场的排放高度。因此，明确针对这些因素的联合战略，如将空间重点措施（如分区）与一般减排相结合，预计将最有效地降低自然地区的氨浓度。

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引用次数: 0

Assessment of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in ambient air and its health risk evaluation in an urban city, Bangalore, India 印度班加罗尔某城市环境空气中多氯联苯（PCBs）的评估及其健康风险评价

IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Environment: X

Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100371

Thamaraikannan Mohankumar , Dhananjayan Venugopal , Ravichandran Beerappa , Jayanthi Palaniyappan , Raghavendra Lingayya , Jawahar Salavath , Mala Ambikapathy , Panjakumar Karunamoorthy

In recent years, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the environment have gained scientific interest because of their persistent nature, widespread occurrence, and the potential threats they pose to humans and the environment. Urban populations are exposed to PCBs through inhalation, ingestion, and dermal absorption of particles present in the air. The present study aimed to evaluate the gaseous and particulate PCB concentrations present in the ambient air based on various seasons and locations and to evaluate the health risks associated with PCBs in urban areas of Bangalore, Karnataka, India. A total of 180 (each PUF and filter paper) samples were collected for the analysis of PCBs in ambient air. PCBs in filter paper and polyurethane foam (PUF) were extracted by ultra-sonication and soxhlet extraction methods, respectively, and analyzed using GC-MS/MS. The maximum mean ∑₁₀PCBs concentration was observed in industrial areas (3.11 ng/m³) and the minimum concentration in rural areas (0.44 ng/m³). Similarly, among the different seasons monitored, the maximum values were observed in the summer season (2.04 ng/m³) and the minimum was in the monsoon season (1.53 ng/m³). The USEPA exposure risk model was used to assess the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of population exposure to PCBs. The current finding indicates that the carcinogenic risk from ∑₁₀PCBs through inhalation exposure was lower than the permissible limit (1.0E-04) for the urban population. The population residing near industrial, traffic, commercial, and residential areas has a slightly high carcinogenic risk through inhalation exposure and dermal contact. This study demonstrated that Inhalation is the primary route of atmospheric PCB exposure, leading to an increased carcinogenic risk for urban population. Therefore, to alleviate the situation and safeguard humans, further continuous monitoring of other toxic contaminants and investigations of biomarkers are highly recommended.

近年来，环境中的多氯联苯（PCBs）因其持久性、广泛存在性以及对人类和环境的潜在威胁而引起了科学界的关注。城市人口通过吸入、摄入和皮肤吸收空气中存在的颗粒而暴露于多氯联苯。本研究旨在根据不同季节和地点评估环境空气中存在的气态和颗粒多氯联苯浓度，并评估印度卡纳塔克邦班加罗尔城市地区与多氯联苯相关的健康风险。共收集了180份（每个PUF和滤纸）样本用于分析环境空气中的多氯联苯。分别采用超声波法和索氏提取法提取滤纸和聚氨酯泡沫（PUF）中的多氯联苯，并采用气相色谱-质谱联用仪（GC-MS/MS）进行分析。工业地区平均∑10pcb浓度最高（3.11 ng/m3），农村地区平均∑10pcb浓度最低（0.44 ng/m3）。同样，在不同的监测季节中，夏季最大（2.04 ng/m3），季风季节最小（1.53 ng/m3）。使用USEPA暴露风险模型来评估人群暴露于多氯联苯的致癌和非致癌风险。目前的研究结果表明，通过吸入接触∑10PCBs的致癌风险低于城市人口的允许限值（1.0E-04）。居住在工业、交通、商业和居民区附近的人口通过吸入接触和皮肤接触具有稍高的致癌风险。本研究表明，吸入是大气中多氯联苯暴露的主要途径，导致城市人口致癌风险增加。因此，为了缓解这种情况和保护人类，强烈建议进一步持续监测其他有毒污染物和研究生物标志物。

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引用次数: 0

Re-evaluation of particulate matter emission rates and variability of livestock houses in the Netherlands 荷兰畜舍颗粒物排放率和变异性的重新评估

IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Environment: X

Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100369

Marien Korevaar , Nico Ogink , Johanna Rebel , Albert Winkel

引用次数: 0

Interaction between climate factors and air quality in three Norwegian cities: A machine learning analysis 挪威三个城市气候因素与空气质量之间的相互作用：机器学习分析

IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Environment: X

Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100366

Cong Cao , Ramit Debnath , R. Michael Alvarez

This study examines the interaction between climate factors and air quality in three Norwegian cities, addressing the gap in which policymakers often analyze air quality and climate change in isolation. We investigate the association of specific climate variables on air pollution by comparing traditional regression models with machine learning techniques, including k-means clustering, hierarchical clustering, random forest, and recursive feature elimination. The models used are based on Europe's standard environmental policy frameworks, and the analysis draws on a decade's worth of daily data on traffic, weather, and air pollution from three major cities in Norway (2009–2018). Our findings highlight a strong correlation between Heating Degree Days (HDD) and elevated levels of pollutants like PM_2.5 and NO_x, indicating that increased heating demand and traffic volume contribute significantly to worsening air quality. This research provides valuable insights into the seasonal dynamics of air pollution and offers a robust data-driven framework to help policymakers develop more effective and integrated urban climate and air quality policies. The research emphasizes the necessity of accounting for the interplay between climate change and air quality in the development of strategies to mitigate the health hazards linked to air pollution.

这项研究考察了挪威三个城市的气候因素和空气质量之间的相互作用，解决了政策制定者经常孤立地分析空气质量和气候变化的差距。我们通过比较传统回归模型与机器学习技术（包括k-means聚类、分层聚类、随机森林和递归特征消除）来研究特定气候变量与空气污染的关系。所使用的模型基于欧洲标准环境政策框架，分析利用了挪威三个主要城市（2009-2018年）十年来的交通、天气和空气污染的日常数据。我们的研究结果强调了供暖度日（HDD）与PM2.5和氮氧化物等污染物水平升高之间的强烈相关性，表明供暖需求和交通量的增加是导致空气质量恶化的重要原因。这项研究为空气污染的季节性动态提供了有价值的见解，并提供了一个强大的数据驱动框架，帮助政策制定者制定更有效、更综合的城市气候和空气质量政策。这项研究强调，在制定减轻与空气污染有关的健康危害的战略时，必须考虑到气候变化与空气质量之间的相互作用。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of industrial emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors in Spain (2017–2022) 西班牙2017-2022年对流层臭氧前体物工业排放评价

IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Environment: X

Pub Date : 2025-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100365

Eliseo Monfort , Irina Celades , Salvador Gomar , Gerard Balaguer , Francesc Ochando , Marc Guevara , Jordi Massagué , Xavier Querol

Tropospheric ozone (O₃) is a secondary atmospheric pollutant formed through complex photochemical reactions of precursors, mainly involving nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), which poses critical challenges to air quality, public health, and environmental sustainability. This study provides an in-depth analysis of industrial emissions of O₃ precursors in Spain, focusing on their spatial distribution, sectoral contributions, temporal trends, and the effectiveness of realistic mitigation strategies. By analysing the emission inventories of the precursors and collecting information from visits to 50 industrial facilities in the four critical O₃ air basins in Spain, the research identifies the main emission sources, assesses the application of Best Available Techniques (BAT) and examines the potential impacts of decarbonisation initiatives. Findings revealed that a small number of facilities contribute largely to total emissions of precursors, with significant regional and sectoral differences in monitoring practices and emission abatements. NOx emissions, largely channelled, have seen significant reductions mainly due to the high penetration of renewable energies in electricity generation in Spain, while VOC emissions remain challenging due to their diffuse nature and reliance on solvent-intensive processes. Decarbonisation efforts are shown to have a dual effect, with potential reductions in NOx but limited influence on VOC emissions. The recommendations include strengthening regulatory harmonisation, improving emission monitoring methodologies, especially for multi-source and non-channelled emissions, as well as promoting innovation in precursor reduction technologies. The conclusions and recommendations will be integrated into the Spanish Tropospheric Ozone Mitigation Plan (STOMP) and may provide valuable insights for other mitigation plans.

对流层臭氧（O3）是通过前体复杂的光化学反应形成的大气二次污染物，主要涉及氮氧化物（NOx）和挥发性有机化合物（VOC），对空气质量、公众健康和环境可持续性构成重大挑战。本研究对西班牙工业排放的O3前体进行了深入分析，重点关注其空间分布、部门贡献、时间趋势以及现实缓解战略的有效性。通过分析前体的排放清单，并从访问西班牙四个关键的O3空气盆地的50个工业设施中收集信息，该研究确定了主要的排放源，评估了最佳可用技术（BAT）的应用，并检查了脱碳倡议的潜在影响。调查结果显示，少数设施在很大程度上促成了前体的总排放，在监测做法和减少排放方面存在重大区域和部门差异。由于可再生能源在西班牙发电中的高度普及，氮氧化物的排放在很大程度上已经显著减少，而VOC的排放仍然具有挑战性，因为它们的弥散性和对溶剂密集型工艺的依赖。脱碳工作具有双重效果，有可能减少氮氧化物，但对挥发性有机化合物的排放影响有限。这些建议包括加强监管协调，改进排放监测方法，特别是针对多源和非渠道排放，以及促进前体减少技术的创新。这些结论和建议将纳入西班牙对流层臭氧减缓计划，并可能为其他减缓计划提供宝贵的见解。

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引用次数: 0

One-dimensional computational investigations on a 3- cylinder spark ignition engine fuelled LPG/H2, methanol/gasoline blends, and E85 for meeting future emission norms 为满足未来排放标准，对以LPG/H2、甲醇/汽油混合物和E85为燃料的3缸火花点火发动机进行了一维计算研究

IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Environment: X

Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100360

Ufaith Qadiri , Mohammad Alkhedher

This study explores a new strategy for enhancing performance and lowering emissions in a three-cylinder spark ignition engine by utilizing various blended alternative fuels. Using one-dimensional simulation software. Avl Boost analysed the engine's emission characteristics and performance metrics across a speed range of 1500–5000 rpm. The optimal fuel blend 80 % LPG and 20 % hydrogen delivered impressive results. It boosted Brake power by 30 % compared to M10/G90 and by 20 % over E85/G15 while also improving thermal efficiency by 25 %. A comparative analysis of three fuel blends (mixed by volume) showed performance gains across all options. Both M10/G90 and E85/G15 blends exhibited better power output. Brake-specific fuel consumption, and Brake mean effective pressure notably, the E85/G15 blend produced 15 % more brake power than M10/G90 and achieved a 10 % reduction in Bsfc. The LPG80/H₂20 blend stood out for its efficiency, registering the lowest Bsfc values 45 % and 50 % lower than ethanol and methanol blends, respectively. Emission modelling further confirmed its advantages, as it resulted in the lowest CO, HC, and NOx emissions. However, a slight rise in NOx emissions was observed at higher engine speeds.

本研究探索了一种利用各种混合替代燃料来提高三缸火花点火发动机性能和降低排放的新策略。采用一维仿真软件。Avl Boost分析了发动机在1500-5000 rpm转速范围内的排放特性和性能指标。80%液化石油气和20%氢气的最佳混合燃料产生了令人印象深刻的结果。与M10/G90相比，它将制动功率提高了30%，比E85/G15提高了20%，同时还将热效率提高了25%。三种燃料混合物（按体积混合）的比较分析显示，所有选项的性能都有所提高。M10/G90和E85/G15均表现出较好的输出功率。尤其值得注意的是，E85/G15混合动力车产生的制动功率比M10/G90多15%，Bsfc降低了10%。LPG80/H220混合物在效率方面表现突出，其最低Bsfc值分别比乙醇和甲醇混合物低45%和50%。排放模型进一步证实了它的优势，因为它能产生最低的CO、HC和NOx排放。然而，在较高的发动机转速下，观察到氮氧化物排放量略有上升。

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引用次数: 0

Experimental investigation of plants interactions with airborne pollutants in an atmospheric simulation chamber 大气模拟室内植物与空气污染物相互作用的实验研究

IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Environment: X

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100355

M. Bosio , F. Mazzei , M. Brunoldi , D. Massabó , V. Vernocchi , F. Parodi , P. Prati , E. Roccotiello

As urban areas continue to grow, the need for effective pollution mitigation strategies becomes more critical. This study presents the outcomes of a set of experiments conducted in an atmospheric simulation chamber (ChAMBRe: Chamber for Aerosol Modelling and Bioaerosol Research) to evaluate the uptake of NO₂ and PM main components (black carbon and dust) capacity of 3 different plant species: Myrtus communis, Nerium oleander and Taxus baccata. To isolate the interactions between plants and individual pollutants, each pollutant was sequentially injected into ChAMBRe one at a time. Finally, to simulate real-world conditions, a mixture of all pollutants was injected. The concentration of pollutants within the chamber was monitored in real-time thanks to the ChAMBRe slow control and data logging system. Results indicate different removal capacities of the selected species and varying relationships between plants and pollutants, suggesting different potential applications in urban pollution mitigation strategies. Among the tested species, T. baccata demonstrated the most consistent and well-balanced performance across all pollutants, with notably high effectiveness in capturing black carbon. M. communis exhibited the highest specialization in the uptake of black carbon, although its performance declined significantly in the dust exposure scenarios. In contrast, N. oleander showed the highest capacity for capturing dust particles, while being less effective in the presence of the other pollutants. This study provides new insights into the ability of plants, especially M. communis, to act as natural biofilters and lays the groundwork for future applications in environmental and urban planning.

随着城市地区的不断扩大，对有效减轻污染战略的需求变得更加迫切。本研究介绍了在大气模拟室（ChAMBRe: chamber for Aerosol Modelling and Bioaerosol Research）进行的一系列实验的结果，以评估3种不同植物物种：桃金桃（Myrtus communis）、夹竹桃（Nerium oleander）和红豆杉（Taxus baccata）对NO2和PM主要成分（黑碳和粉尘）的吸收能力。为了分离植物和单个污染物之间的相互作用，每种污染物被顺序地一次注入一个腔室。最后，为了模拟现实世界的条件，所有污染物的混合物被注入。由于ChAMBRe的慢速控制和数据记录系统，可以实时监测室内污染物的浓度。结果表明，所选物种的去除能力不同，植物与污染物之间的关系也不同，表明在城市污染缓解策略中的潜在应用不同。在被试物种中，白颊霉在所有污染物中表现出最一致和最平衡的性能，在捕获黑碳方面表现出显著的高效率。M. communis在黑碳吸收方面表现出最高的专门化，尽管在粉尘暴露情景下其表现显著下降。相比之下，夹竹桃表现出最高的捕获尘埃颗粒的能力，而在其他污染物存在时效果较差。该研究为植物，特别是m.s communis作为天然生物过滤器的能力提供了新的见解，并为未来在环境和城市规划中的应用奠定了基础。

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引用次数: 0

Solar activity and mortality: a meta-analysis of six cities in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East 太阳活动和死亡率：地中海东部和中东六个城市的荟萃分析

IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Environment: X

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100352

Madeleine Wissoker , Carolina Zilli Vieira , Souzana Achilleos , Barrak Alahmad , Maria Athanasiadou , Anastasia Paschalidou , Nikos Kalivitis , Evangelia Samoli , Petros Koutrakis , Annalisa Quattrocchi

Background

Solar and geomagnetic activity have been linked to a multitude of impacts on human health including cardiovascular disease (CVD), and total non-accidental mortality. However, this has not been assessed in the Eastern Mediterranean Region or the Middle East. Our study aimed to assess the effects of short-term geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) on mortality in six locations across the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East regions (Athens, Thessaloniki, Crete, Greece; Kuwait City, Kuwait; Limassol and Nicosia, Cyprus).

Methods

We used a time series analysis adjusted for temperature and humidity over the period between 1997 and 2019 to estimate the effects of GMD (K_p index, sunspot number - SSN, plasma beta, and interplanetary magnetic field - IMF) on daily total non-accidental, CVD, and respiratory mortality, for each study area. We applied meta-analysis to estimate the pooled GMD mortality effect across all locations.

Results

Our analysis included 664,427 deaths over the study period. K_p index was found to be significantly associated with total, CVD, and respiratory mortality. There was a 0.94 % (95 % CI: 0.019, 1.87) increase in total non-accidental mortality; a 0.63 % (95 % CI: 0.013, 1.25) increase in CVD mortality; and a 2.53 % (95 % CI: 0.36, 4.75) increase in respiratory mortality per IQR increase in K_p index (IQR = 15.63). However, solar activity parameters (SSN, Plasma beta, or IMF) were not statistically significantly associated with mortality.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate an association between exposure to higher levels of K_p index and total non-accidental, CVD and respiratory mortality in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East Regions. The results warrant additional exploration to ascertain if variations in solar activity-driven human physiological dynamics may also be linked to other health consequences.

太阳和地磁活动与人类健康的许多影响有关，包括心血管疾病（CVD）和总非意外死亡率。然而，在东地中海区域或中东尚未对这一情况进行评估。我们的研究旨在评估短期地磁干扰（GMD）对地中海东部和中东地区六个地点(雅典、塞萨洛尼基、克里特岛、希腊；科威特科威特市；利马索尔和尼科西亚，塞浦路斯)。方法采用时间序列分析方法，调整了1997年至2019年期间的温度和湿度，以估计GMD （Kp指数，太阳黑子数- SSN，等离子体β和行星际磁场- IMF）对每个研究区域的每日总非意外死亡率，心血管疾病死亡率和呼吸死亡率的影响。我们应用荟萃分析来估计所有地区的GMD死亡率效应。结果我们的分析包括在研究期间664,427例死亡。Kp指数与总死亡率、心血管疾病死亡率和呼吸系统死亡率显著相关。总非意外死亡率增加了0.94% (95% CI: 0.019, 1.87)；心血管疾病死亡率增加0.63% (95% CI: 0.013, 1.25)；呼吸系统死亡率增加2.53% (95% CI: 0.36, 4.75)，每IQR增加Kp指数（IQR = 15.63）。然而，太阳活动参数（SSN, Plasma beta，或IMF）与死亡率没有统计学上的显著相关性。结论研究结果表明，暴露于较高水平的Kp指数与东地中海和中东地区的非意外、心血管疾病和呼吸系统死亡率之间存在关联。这些结果值得进一步探索，以确定太阳活动驱动的人体生理动力学的变化是否也可能与其他健康后果有关。

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引用次数: 0

Reduced contrail radiative effect for fleets with low soot and water vapour emissions 减少烟灰和水蒸气排放量低的机队的尾迹辐射影响

IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Environment: X

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100353

Milenko Rubin-Zuzic , Luca Bugliaro , Andreas Marsing , Ziming Wang , Christiane Voigt , Christopher Simson , Sascha Kaiser , Paul Ziegler

Besides the goal of net-zero carbon dioxide (CO

_{2}

) emissions, reducing aviation’s climate impact also involves addressing other forcing effects, particularly radiative forcing from contrails. Current understanding suggests that decreasing both soot and water vapour emissions from aircraft engines reduces the occurrence and persistence of contrails, thereby lowering their radiative forcing. This may be achieved by engine concepts that combine water recovery from the exhaust with particle washout. This study presents an idealized sensitivity analysis using the Contrail Cirrus Prediction (CoCiP) model to assess how reductions in soot number and water vapour emissions could affect the radiative impact of contrail cirrus over Europe. The emission scenarios are not tied to any specific engine design but are chosen to explore the physical sensitivity of contrail formation and radiative effects. The number of emitted soot particles is reduced by up to two orders of magnitude, and water vapour emissions by one. We find that the mitigation effect becomes more pronounced with higher emission reductions. While both components contribute to the overall reduction, their combination leads to a stronger effect. The magnitude of the effect depends on their interactions during contrail formation and on subsequent atmospheric processes. The radiative forcing response exhibits marked geographic variability, with the strongest effects over regions with frequent ice-supersaturated air masses. Daily and seasonal variations in contrail occurrence and radiative impact further modulate the overall mitigation potential. The simulations indicate a substantial decrease in contrail radiative effect if technologies that lower soot and water vapour emissions are applied across a broad fleet. A limitation of this study is that other contrail nucleation pathways, such as condensation on volatile particles, are not considered. Thus, our assessment may provide an upper bound on the reduction of contrail cirrus radiative impact from soot and/or water vapour emissions.

除了二氧化碳净零排放的目标外，减少航空对气候的影响还涉及解决其他强迫效应，特别是尾迹的辐射强迫。目前的理解表明，减少飞机发动机的烟灰和水蒸气排放可以减少飞机尾迹的发生和持续时间，从而降低其辐射强迫。这可以通过将废气中的水回收与颗粒冲洗相结合的发动机概念来实现。本研究使用尾迹卷云预测（CoCiP）模型进行了理想化的敏感性分析，以评估烟灰数量和水蒸气排放的减少如何影响欧洲上空尾迹卷云的辐射影响。排放情景与任何特定的发动机设计无关，而是为了探索尾迹形成和辐射效应的物理敏感性。排放的烟灰颗粒数量减少了两个数量级，水蒸气排放量减少了一个数量级。我们发现，减排量越大，减缓效应越明显。虽然这两个因素都有助于整体减排，但它们的结合会产生更强的效果。影响的大小取决于它们在尾迹形成过程中的相互作用和随后的大气过程。辐射强迫响应表现出明显的地理变异性，在冰过饱和气团频繁出现的地区影响最强。尾迹发生的日变化和季节变化以及辐射影响进一步调节了总体缓解潜力。模拟表明，如果在广泛的船队中应用降低烟灰和水蒸气排放的技术，尾迹辐射效应将大大减少。本研究的一个局限性是没有考虑其他尾迹成核途径，如挥发性颗粒上的凝结。因此，我们的评估可以提供烟灰和/或水蒸气排放减少尾迹卷辐射影响的上限。

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