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Winter emission factors of ultrafine total and solid particle numbers and PM2.5 near a major arterial road in Tokyo 东京主干道附近超细总颗粒物、固体颗粒物和PM2.5冬季排放因子
IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100382
Hiroyuki Hagino
Road-traffic particulate emissions are regulated by limits expressed as emission factors per driving distance. However, these limits are difficult to compare directly to atmospheric concentrations. This study measured particulate and gaseous pollutant concentrations simultaneously in winter of 2023 at two locations near a major ring road in Tokyo, one roadside and the other 100 m back. Traffic-related emissions of PM2.5 (fine particulate matter, particle size ≤2.5 μm), total particle number (TPN10–100 nm), and solid particle number (SPN10–100 nm) were not correlated with traffic volume. Marked differences at the two sites confirmed that traffic-related emissions affected the roadside atmospheric environment, although this impact was evident only in hourly data. Emission factors for TPN10–100 nm and SPN10–100 nm, estimated using concentration differences between sites and CO2/CO and NOx/CO ratios, yielded factors of 1.61 × 1013 ± 4.5 × 1012 and 4.78 × 1012 ± 2.2 × 1012 #/km/veh., respectively. Barium in PM2.5 was used to estimate brake particle emission factors (2.05 × 109 ± 6.6 × 108 #/km/veh., 0.01 % of TPN10–100 nm; 1.64 × 109 ± 5.2 × 108 #/km/veh., 0.03 % of SPN10–100 nm), revealing only a small contribution to total traffic-derived particle emissions. The traffic-derived PM2.5 emission factor was 20.1 ± 6.5 mg/km/veh., with brake particle–derived PM2.5 contributing only 0.94 mg/km/veh. (4.7 %). These findings support previous studies showing no correlation between roadside PM2.5 and traffic volume, and highlight the importance of high-resolution, simultaneous roadside and background measurements for evaluating traffic-derived particulate emissions.
道路交通微粒排放由以每行驶距离的排放系数表示的限制来调节。然而,这些限制很难直接与大气浓度进行比较。这项研究于2023年冬季在东京一条主要环路附近的两个地点同时测量了颗粒物和气体污染物浓度,一个在路边,另一个在100米后。PM2.5(细颗粒物,粒径≤2.5 μm)、总颗粒数(tpn10 ~ 100 nm)和固体颗粒数(spn10 ~ 100 nm)的交通相关排放与交通量无关。两个地点的显著差异证实了交通相关排放对路边大气环境的影响,尽管这种影响仅在每小时的数据中才很明显。TPN10-100 nm和SPN10-100 nm的排放因子分别为1.61 × 1013±4.5 × 1012和4.78 × 1012±2.2 × 1012 #/km/veh。,分别。利用PM2.5中的钡估算制动颗粒排放因子(2.05 × 109±6.6 × 108 #/km/veh)。0.01% TPN10-100 nm;1.64 × 109±5.2 × 108 #/km/veh(0.03%的SPN10-100 nm),表明仅对总交通衍生颗粒排放贡献很小。交通衍生的PM2.5排放因子为20.1±6.5 mg/km/veh。,其中,来自刹车颗粒物的PM2.5仅贡献0.94 mg/km/veh。(4.7%)。这些发现支持了之前的研究结果,即路边PM2.5与交通量之间没有相关性,并强调了高分辨率、同时进行路边和背景测量对于评估交通来源的颗粒物排放的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Characterisation of rare earth elements in natural and exhaust gas samples: SEM-microscopy and EDX-analysis for source identifications 天然和废气样品中稀土元素的表征:用于来源鉴定的sem显微镜和edx分析
IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100381
Margot Bruneau , Mathieu Goriaux , Liliane Jean-Soro , Yao Liu , Patrick Tassel , Béatrice Béchet
Natural materials and exhaust gas emissions are sources of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) in the road environment. A methodology based on SEM-EDX analyses is proposed to: 1) provide a morphological and chemical characterisation of REEs particles in natural materials and exhaust gas; and 2) identify indicators that can distinguish the sources of REEs. The chemical composition of various washcoats was evaluated. Natural materials, exhaust gases, and ceramic monoliths from catalytic converters were described using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) and analysed with an Energy Dispersive X-ray analyser (EDX). The results indicated that REEs natural particles predominantly exhibited sharp corners in contrast to the spherical shapes of REEs particles within exhaust gases. Exhaust gas particles were smaller (0.07–1.22 μm) than those observed in natural materials (0.64–25.42 μm). REEs particles were associated with mineral carrier phase compounds (e.g., Al, Si, P) and, in some instances, with natural source fingerprints (e.g., Rb, Sr, Th). REEs particles in exhaust gases were embedded in organic combustion particles composed of C, Fe, S or in washcoat detected through Zr, Ti, Pd. La/Ce ratio of natural particles (0.20–0.63) is higher than that for exhaust gas particles (0–0.25). Hence, La/Ce ratio could be used as an indicator for exhaust gas particles in environmental samples. To go further, this study provides information on the physical and chemical speciation of REEs particles necessary to assess the transfer of particles from emission to the environment.
天然材料和废气排放是道路环境中稀土元素(ree)的来源。提出了一种基于SEM-EDX分析的方法:1)提供天然材料和废气中稀土颗粒的形态和化学特征;2)确定能够区分稀土元素来源的指标。对不同类型的洗衣进行了化学成分评价。使用扫描电子显微镜(SEM)描述了催化转化器产生的天然材料、废气和陶瓷单体,并使用能量色散x射线分析仪(EDX)进行了分析。结果表明,与废气中稀土颗粒呈球形相比,天然稀土颗粒主要呈尖角状。废气颗粒(0.07 ~ 1.22 μm)小于天然材料(0.64 ~ 25.42 μm)。稀土颗粒与矿物载体相化合物(例如,Al, Si, P)有关,在某些情况下,与自然源指纹(例如,Rb, Sr, Th)有关。废气中的稀土颗粒嵌埋在由C、Fe、S组成的有机燃烧颗粒中或通过Zr、Ti、Pd检测的涂层中。天然颗粒的La/Ce比值(0.20 ~ 0.63)高于废气颗粒的La/Ce比值(0 ~ 0.25)。因此,La/Ce比值可以作为环境样品中废气颗粒的指标。更进一步,这项研究提供了评估粒子从排放到环境的转移所必需的稀土粒子的物理和化学形态的信息。
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引用次数: 0
Characterization of atmospheric aerosol and its carbonaceous components at a central Mediterranean site: A multi-method approach using optical, physical, and isotopic techniques 地中海中部站点大气气溶胶及其碳质成分的特征:使用光学、物理和同位素技术的多方法方法
IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100380
Dalila Peccarrisi , Mattia Fragola , Salvatore Romano , Federica Fanigliulo , Giorgio Giuseppe Carbone , Lucio Maruccio , Daniele Contini , Gianluca Quarta , Lucio Calcagnile
A new analytical approach combining aethalometer measurements, organic and elemental carbon (OC/EC) analysis, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Particle Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE), and Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry (IRMS) was used to characterize aerosol properties and its carbonaceous component in Lecce (Italy), located in the Central Mediterranean, during a monitoring campaign between May and June 2024. Both anthropogenic activities (e.g., vehicular traffic, industrial emissions) and natural events (e.g., wildfires, desert dust transport) were responsible for the high temporal variability of optical, physical, and chemical properties of atmospheric aerosol at the study site. In more detail, the measured Absorption Ångström Exponent (AAE) mean values (in the range 1.0–1.5) indicated a mixture of black carbon and organic or biogenic particles. Correlation analyses between aerosol absorption coefficients and PM mass concentrations highlighted a stronger relationship with EC compared to OC, highlighting the role of EC in the absorption properties of atmospheric aerosols. Chemical characterization through SEM and PIXE identified three aerosol source clusters: anthropogenic (high C concentrations, markers of combustion sources and industrial emissions), desert dust (crustal elements), and marine spray (Na and Cl). IRMS isotopic analysis further confirmed the distinction between anthropogenic and natural aerosol sources, with overlaps observed for marine aerosols influenced by both natural and anthropogenic activities. This work underlines the importance of multi-method procedures in understanding aerosol composition and dynamics, with potential associations for air quality monitoring, climate modeling, and health risk assessments.
在2024年5月至6月的监测活动中,采用了一种新的分析方法,结合了乙醇计测量、有机碳和元素碳(OC/EC)分析、扫描电子显微镜(SEM)、粒子诱导x射线发射(PIXE)和同位素比质谱(IRMS)来表征位于地中海中部的莱切(意大利)的气溶胶特性及其碳质成分。人为活动(如车辆交通、工业排放)和自然事件(如野火、沙漠沙尘输送)都是造成研究地点大气气溶胶光学、物理和化学性质高时间变异性的原因。更详细地说,测量的吸收Ångström指数(AAE)平均值(在1.0-1.5范围内)表明黑碳和有机或生物颗粒的混合物。气溶胶吸收系数和PM质量浓度之间的相关分析强调了EC与OC之间的更强关系,强调了EC在大气气溶胶吸收特性中的作用。通过扫描电镜和PIXE进行化学表征,确定了三种气溶胶源簇:人为(高浓度C,燃烧源和工业排放的标志)、沙漠尘埃(地壳元素)和海洋喷雾(Na和Cl)。IRMS同位素分析进一步证实了人为和自然气溶胶源之间的区别,在受自然活动和人为活动影响的海洋气溶胶中观测到重叠。这项工作强调了了解气溶胶组成和动力学的多方法程序的重要性,并与空气质量监测、气候建模和健康风险评估有潜在的联系。
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引用次数: 0
On-board characterization of brake-wear emissions from a heavy-duty vehicle in real-world driving conditions 重型车辆在真实驾驶条件下的制动磨损排放的车载特征
IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100379
Ashok Singh Vishnoi , Boris Vansevenant , Asma Beji , Mathieu Goriaux , Bernard Guiot , Yassine Azizi , Mélanie Messieux , Patrick Tassel , Sophie Serindat , Nicolas Quennet , Yao Liu
Brake wear contributes significantly to non-exhaust emissions, with poorly documented real-world data on ultrafine particles and gaseous emissions, particularly for heavy vehicles. This study focuses on brake wear ultrafine particles emitted by a school bus in real-world driving conditions, through on-board measurements. Some gaseous compounds were also measured. Tests were conducted on a real-world school pick-up route, as well as an in-service-conformity compliant route. A custom-made stainless-steel emission collection system was designed and placed around the front right disc. Particle and gas measurement instruments were sampled directly from the collection system, which was also equipped with temperature sensors. Results show that brake particle emissions range from 4.1 × 107 #/brake/km to 1.7 × 109 #/brake/km, with a bimodal distribution (first mode around 10 nm and second mode around 200 nm). Emissions were analyzed with regard to energy loss during each braking event, showing it can be critical in estimating brake emissions in most cases. In some cases, particle emissions are poorly correlated with energy in the 10 nm mode, which is due to high-intensity and repeated braking episodes. Concentration peaks were also observed for a few volatile organic compounds such as benzene and toluene. Gaseous emission was also observed for CO, CO2, CH4, NH3, NOx, and SO2.

Glossary

Particle collection system, VOCs, high-intensity braking
刹车磨损对非废气排放的贡献很大,而关于超细颗粒和气体排放的真实数据记录很少,尤其是重型车辆。这项研究的重点是通过车载测量,在现实驾驶条件下,一辆校车排放的刹车磨损超细颗粒。还测量了一些气态化合物。测试是在一条真实的学校接送路线上进行的,以及一条符合服役标准的路线。设计了定制的不锈钢辐射收集系统,并将其放置在右前盘周围。颗粒和气体测量仪器直接从收集系统中取样,该系统还配备了温度传感器。结果表明:汽车制动颗粒排放范围为4.1 × 107 #/brake/km ~ 1.7 × 109 #/brake/km,呈双峰分布(第一模态约为10 nm,第二模态约为200 nm);排放分析关于能量损失在每个制动事件,表明它可以在估计制动排放的关键在大多数情况下。在某些情况下,颗粒排放与10纳米模式下的能量相关性很差,这是由于高强度和重复的制动事件。苯和甲苯等挥发性有机化合物的浓度也出现了峰值。还观察到CO、CO2、CH4、NH3、NOx和SO2的气体排放。粒子收集系统,挥发性有机化合物,高强度制动
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引用次数: 0
Volatility of secondary organic aerosol and sulphate particles formed in ship engine emission 船舶发动机排放物中二次有机气溶胶和硫酸盐颗粒的挥发性
IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100376
Oskari Kangasniemi , Pauli Simonen , Panu Karjalainen , Luis M.F. Barreira , Jana Moldanová , Hilkka Timonen , Barbara D’Anna , Jorma Keskinen , Miikka Dal Maso
The secondary organic aerosol formation potential of a ship engine emission is assumed to be significant since ship engines are known to emit large amounts semi- and intermediate volatility organic compounds capable of forming secondary organic mass in the atmosphere. However, this is poorly studied in real-world conditions. Here, oxidation reactor was used to simulate atmospheric aging of an exhaust emission aboard a ship in real-world conditions. The samples were also heat-treated to gain information on the volatility of the aged emission. Genetic optimization algorithm was combined with a volatility model to study the volatility distribution of the emission and partitioning of the emission was calculated in different dilution scenarios. Aging of the ship exhaust emission was seen to produce significant amounts of secondary organic mass and quite volatile particle phase sulphate. Most of the secondary organic aerosol was in semi- and intermediate volatility range. This volatility range in particle phase means that care has to be taken when diluting the samples. The gas–particle phase partitioning of volatile material can significantly change the particle phase concentrations in addition to just dilution.
假定船舶发动机排放物的二次有机气溶胶形成潜力是显著的,因为已知船舶发动机排放大量的半挥发性和中间挥发性有机化合物,能够在大气中形成二次有机物质。然而,这在现实世界的研究很少。本文采用氧化反应器模拟船舶废气在真实环境下的大气老化。样品还经过热处理,以获得老化排放物的挥发性信息。将遗传优化算法与波动性模型相结合,研究了排放的波动性分布,并计算了不同稀释情景下排放的分配。船舶废气的老化产生了大量的二次有机物质和挥发性很强的颗粒相硫酸盐。二次有机气溶胶大部分处于半挥发性和中度挥发性。颗粒相的这种挥发范围意味着稀释样品时必须小心。挥发性物质的气-粒相分配除了稀释外,还能显著改变颗粒相浓度。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying high-emitting heavy-duty vehicles using remote emission sensing technology 利用遥感技术识别高排放重型车辆
IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100377
Miao Tian , Zhihui Huang , Shuai Ma , Mingliang Fu , Xiaohu Wang , Jin Liu , Quanshun Yu , Jia Wang , Hang Yin , Junfang Wang
Vehicle emissions are major contributors to air quality issues in many areas of the world. Policymakers are actively exploring new technologies for monitoring vehicle emissions on roads, and remote emission sensing (RES) is a promising approach. However, it is mostly used to evaluate the fleet average emission characters. In this study, we evaluated the accuracy of RES for a single measurement and its ability to identify high-emitting vehicles by conducting concurrent tests with another real-world methods, i.e., using portable emissions measurement system (PEMS) in a test field, as well as city demonstration tests. It was found that the relative errors of single RES measurements decreased from an average of 212.42% to 24.68% when the NO emission factors exceeded 5 g/kg fuel. The China VI high-emitting diesel vehicles identified by RES NO measurements were also found to release severe NOx emissions based on their on-board diagnostics (OBD) data. This study demonstrates that RES is a suitable tool for detecting high-emitting heavy-duty vehicles with acceptable uncertainty, and provides specific criteria for improving the accuracy of RES data. Additionally, it presents a method to utilize OBD data for identifying high-emitters.
在世界许多地区,汽车尾气排放是造成空气质量问题的主要原因。政策制定者正在积极探索监测道路上车辆排放的新技术,而远程排放传感(RES)是一种很有前途的方法。然而,它大多用于评估车队的平均排放特性。在本研究中,我们通过与另一种现实世界的方法(即在试验场使用便携式排放测量系统(PEMS))以及城市示范测试进行并行测试,评估了RES在单次测量中的准确性及其识别高排放车辆的能力。结果表明,当NO排放系数大于5 g/kg燃料时,单次RES测量的相对误差从平均212.42%下降到24.68%。根据车载诊断(OBD)数据,通过RES NO测量确定的国六高排放柴油车也释放了严重的氮氧化物排放。该研究表明,RES是一种适合于检测高排放重型车辆的工具,具有可接受的不确定性,并为提高RES数据的准确性提供了具体标准。此外,还提出了一种利用OBD数据识别高发射源的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Severe health risks from ambient volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in a Central Asian city: Source attribution and probabilistic risk assessment 中亚城市环境挥发性有机化合物(VOCs)的严重健康风险:来源归因和概率风险评估
IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100378
Alisher Alibekov , Yingkar Bahetnur , Kadisha Yessenbayeva , Nassiba Baimatova , Woojin Lee
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) significantly contribute to ambient air pollution and pose serious health threats, particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions. This study comprehensively assessed ambient VOC concentrations, identified potential emission sources, and conducted a stochastic human health risk assessment in Almaty, Kazakhstan – a metropolitan Central Asian city characterized by intense traffic, extensive coal combustion, and frequent temperature inversions. Ambient air samples were collected seasonally at multiple elevation points across the city and analyzed for 23 VOC species. Their concentrations were notably elevated during the heating season, especially in the lower city, with benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes (BTEX), and naphthalene exhibiting alarming levels compared to other urban settings worldwide. Principal component and BTEX ratio analyses identified coal combustion, vehicle emissions, and industrial activities as the primary VOC sources, with persistent impacts observed even during non-heating seasons due to pollutant resuspension and revolatilization. The stochastic health risk assessment revealed median non-carcinogenic hazard indices generally within acceptable limits but highlighted substantial exceedances (HI > 1) at the 95th percentile, driven mainly by benzene and naphthalene. Carcinogenic risks consistently exceeded acceptable thresholds (10−6), with benzene being the predominant contributor, which raised urgent public health concerns. Almaty's population faces significantly higher cancer risks than North American and European cities, highlighting the critical need for targeted regulatory measures to mitigate VOC emissions and protect public health.
挥发性有机化合物在很大程度上造成了环境空气污染,并对健康构成严重威胁,特别是在快速城市化的地区。本研究全面评估了哈萨克斯坦阿拉木图的环境VOC浓度,确定了潜在的排放源,并进行了随机人类健康风险评估。阿拉木图是一个中亚大都市,其特点是交通繁忙、广泛的煤炭燃烧和频繁的逆温。按季节在全市多个高程点采集环境空气样本,分析23种挥发性有机化合物。它们的浓度在供暖季节显著升高,特别是在较低的城市,与世界其他城市环境相比,苯、甲苯、乙苯、二甲苯(BTEX)和萘的浓度达到了惊人的水平。主成分和BTEX比值分析表明,煤炭燃烧、车辆排放和工业活动是VOC的主要来源,即使在非采暖季节,由于污染物的再悬浮和旋转,也会产生持续的影响。随机健康风险评估显示,非致癌性危害指数中位数一般在可接受范围内,但在第95百分位突出显示了严重超标(HI > 1),主要是由苯和萘驱动的。致癌风险持续超过可接受阈值(10 - 6),其中苯是主要因素,这引起了紧急的公共卫生关注。阿拉木图人口面临的癌症风险明显高于北美和欧洲城市,这突出表明迫切需要采取有针对性的监管措施,以减少挥发性有机化合物的排放,保护公众健康。
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引用次数: 0
From real-driving emissions to urban air quality: composition of aged PM from modern diesel, gasoline, and CNG fueled cars and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles 从实际驾驶排放到城市空气质量:来自现代柴油、汽油和CNG燃料汽车和插电式混合动力汽车的老化PM组成
IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100375
Leïla Simon , Luis Barreira , Katariina Kylämäki , Sanna Saarikoski , Minna Aurela , Delun Li , Anssi Järvinen , Hannu Kuutti , Wojciech Honkisz , Milja Jäppi , Laura Salo , Matti Rissanen , Tereza Červená , Michal Vojtíšek , Jan Topinka , Piotr Bielaczyc , Topi Rönkkö , Päivi Aakko-Saksa , Hilkka Timonen
Secondary aerosol emissions from vehicle exhaust often surpass primary particle emissions, yet they are not currently regulated, as they remain difficult to constrain. Here we investigate the factors driving the formation and chemical composition of secondary aerosol from light-duty vehicle exhaust emissions, focusing on the most recent Euro emission standard (Euro 6d), and including hybrid and natural gas cars.
Seven modern cars were driven through a real-driving emission simulation cycle in a chassis dynamometer. The exhaust emissions were aged in a PAM chamber and their chemical and physical properties measured with an aerosol mass spectrometer and state-of-the-art instrumentation.
Results indicate that secondary aerosol emissions surpassed fresh aerosol emissions for all cars, except for old Euro 4 diesel. While on average, Euro 6d gasoline and diesel cars aged PM emissions were about 90 % lower than emissions from older cars, their cold start emissions were still significant. Hybrid cars also emitted considerably when switching to combustion engine, which, depending on the length and style of the driving, could be comparable to non-hybrid vehicles emissions. Aged organic aerosol was dominated by oxidized compounds typical of ambient secondary organic aerosol, with unique compositions across vehicle types and fuels. Notably, the CNG vehicle emitted hydrocarbon-like organics, likely originating from less reactive species from lubricant oil, and the Euro 4 diesel exhibited organic nitrate formation, an underreported component in vehicle exhaust with atmospheric implications. Secondary aerosol and its precursors should be regulated and considered in reduction technologies, to best mitigate atmospheric PM in urban traffic-influenced areas.
汽车尾气的二次气溶胶排放通常超过一次颗粒排放,但目前还没有受到监管,因为它们仍然难以限制。本文以最新的欧洲排放标准(Euro 6d)为研究对象,研究了轻型汽车尾气中二次气溶胶形成和化学成分的驱动因素,其中包括混合动力汽车和天然气汽车。七辆现代汽车在底盘测功机中进行了真实驾驶排放模拟循环。废气排放在PAM室中老化,并使用气溶胶质谱仪和最先进的仪器测量其化学和物理特性。结果表明,除旧欧4柴油车外,所有汽车的二次气溶胶排放量都超过了新气溶胶排放量。虽然平均而言,符合欧6d标准的汽油和柴油汽车的PM排放量比老款汽车低90%左右,但它们的冷启动排放量仍然很大。混合动力汽车在转换为内燃机时也会产生相当大的排放量,这取决于驾驶的长度和风格,可以与非混合动力汽车的排放量相当。老化的有机气溶胶主要是典型的环境二次有机气溶胶的氧化化合物,具有不同车型和燃料的独特成分。值得注意的是,CNG汽车排放的类碳氢化合物有机物可能来自润滑油中活性较低的物质,而欧4柴油显示出有机硝酸盐的形成,这是一种在汽车尾气中被低估的成分,对大气有影响。在减排技术中应管制和考虑二次气溶胶及其前体,以最好地减轻城市交通影响地区的大气PM。
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引用次数: 0
Future air quality and human health benefits of net-zero CO2 emissions pathway in China 二氧化碳净零排放路径对中国未来空气质量和人类健康的影响
IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100374
Yuhang Zhao , Yun Shu , Hong Sun , Shaohui Zhang , Yinhe Deng
While growing attention has been paid to the co-benefits of climate policies, existing research often lacks granularity in evaluating diverse low-carbon transition strategies and their effects on air pollution and public health, particularly within the context of China's rapidly aging demographic. Here, we assess the PM2.5 air quality and health co-benefits of a net-zero CO2 emissions (NZE) pathway aligned with the 1.5 °C global climate target by integrating the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model with updated exposure-response relationships. Compared with China's initial nationally determined contribution scenario – peaking CO2 emissions around 2030, the NZE pathway reduces SO2, NOx and PM2.5 emissions by roughly 3900 kt, 4500 kt and 770 kt, respectively, by 2050. These reductions lower national population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations to 18.9 μg/m3, preventing approximately 260,000 premature deaths annually. Guangdong, Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, Jiangsu, and Hubei provinces account for 44 % of the avoided deaths, highlighting significant spatial disparities. Despite these improvements, PM2.5-related mortality reductions plateau after 2035, suggesting that climate policy alone may not fully offset health risks from population aging and residual pollution. Nationally, the marginal health benefits of CO2 abatement rise over time, reaching 77 avoided deaths per million tons of CO2 reduced by 2050, with particularly high values in Beijing and Hainan. The coefficient of variation for avoided PM2.5-related premature deaths per unit CO2 abatement rises from 1.12 in 2035 to 1.60 in 2050, indicating growing regional inequality. Our findings demonstrate that ambitious decarbonization delivers pronounced air quality and public health benefits while emphasizing the need for regionally tailored policies to ensure equitable outcomes.
尽管人们越来越关注气候政策的协同效益,但现有研究在评估各种低碳转型战略及其对空气污染和公众健康的影响方面往往缺乏粒度,尤其是在中国人口迅速老龄化的背景下。在这里,我们通过整合温室气体-空气污染相互作用和协同效应模型以及更新的暴露-响应关系,评估了与1.5°C全球气候目标一致的净零二氧化碳排放(NZE)途径的PM2.5空气质量和健康协同效益。与中国最初的国家自主贡献情景(2030年左右二氧化碳排放量达到峰值)相比,到2050年,NZE途径将分别减少约3900 kt、4500 kt和770 kt的SO2、NOx和PM2.5排放量。这些减少将全国人口加权PM2.5浓度降至18.9 μg/m3,每年防止约26万人过早死亡。广东、山东、河南、四川、江苏和湖北占避免死亡人数的44%,突出了显著的空间差异。尽管取得了这些进展,但与pm2.5相关的死亡率下降在2035年后趋于平稳,这表明仅靠气候政策可能无法完全抵消人口老龄化和残留污染带来的健康风险。在全国范围内,二氧化碳减排的边际健康效益随着时间的推移而上升,到2050年,每减少百万吨二氧化碳可避免77人死亡,北京和海南的数值特别高。每单位二氧化碳减排避免的pm2.5相关过早死亡的变异系数从2035年的1.12上升到2050年的1.60,表明区域不平等日益加剧。我们的研究结果表明,雄心勃勃的脱碳带来了明显的空气质量和公共卫生效益,同时强调需要制定适合区域的政策,以确保公平的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of ambient PM2.5 chemical components in Southern California using machine learning 使用机器学习预测南加州环境PM2.5化学成分
IF 3.4 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100372
Jiani Yang , Sina Hasheminassab , Meredith Franklin , Antong Zhang , David J. Diner , Joseph Pinto , Yuk L. Yung
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm) poses major public health and environmental risks, yet the toxicity of its chemical components remains poorly understood due to limited chemical speciation data. In this study we apply an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine learning framework to predict key PM2.5 components including organic carbon, elemental carbon, nitrate, sulfate, ammonium, and metals, using readily available predictors: total PM2.5 mass concentrations, meteorological variables, trace gas measurements, and indicators of exceptional events (e.g., wildfires, fireworks). Leveraging a decade of data from two monitoring sites in Southern California (Los Angeles and Rubidoux), the models achieved strong predictive performance, particularly for nitrate, ammonium, and elemental carbon. Among the most influential predictors across components were total PM2.5 mass, relative humidity, and boundary layer height. This approach has promise for enhancing satellite remote sensing applications, improving chemical transport model inputs, and generating cost-effective estimates of PM2.5 components during sampling gaps and in regions lacking frequent monitoring. Further research is needed to assess the generalizability of this framework across diverse geographic and climatic settings.
细颗粒物(PM2.5,空气动力学直径≤2.5 μm的颗粒物)构成重大公共健康和环境风险,但由于化学形态数据有限,对其化学成分的毒性仍知之甚少。在本研究中,我们应用极端梯度增强(XGBoost)机器学习框架来预测PM2.5的关键成分,包括有机碳、元素碳、硝酸盐、硫酸盐、铵和金属,使用现成的预测因子:PM2.5总质量浓度、气象变量、痕量气体测量和特殊事件(如野火、烟花)的指标。利用南加州两个监测点(洛杉矶和鲁比杜)十年来的数据,这些模型取得了很强的预测性能,特别是对硝酸盐、铵和元素碳。各分量中影响最大的预测因子是PM2.5总质量、相对湿度和边界层高度。这种方法有望加强卫星遥感应用,改善化学输运模型输入,并在采样间隙和缺乏频繁监测的地区产生具有成本效益的PM2.5成分估算。需要进一步的研究来评估这一框架在不同地理和气候环境下的普遍性。
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引用次数: 0
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Atmospheric Environment: X
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