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Migration Statecraft: Managing Migration Flows at a Bilateral Level 移民治国之道:在双边层面上管理移民流动
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2021.19.1.64.8
C. Pagani
This article assesses the theoretical contours and effectiveness of migration governance and diplomacy as an instrument of statecraft in interstate relations. The first part provides an overview of the stakes and challenges of migration within the fields of international relations and political theory. In particular, the category of migration defies the theoretical model of the nation­state, on which traditional IR and political theory are grounded. The second part highlights how the state, through the securitization of migration, uses migration as a tool to reaffirm its defining features: reinforcing its borders, legitimating state sovereignty, and building societal security. The third section demonstrates the usefulness of the category of statecraft within the context of migration governance at a bilateral level owing to the absence of a global normative framework. This relationship can serve different purposes, depending on the context: to harm, to deter, to bargain, to escalate. The last section presents contemporary case studies of the application of migration statecraft by the United States and Russia, as well as by member states along external border of the European Union and within the Schengen space. The elements of "migration statecraft" evidenced by these episodes focus on several objectives: trade blackmail, cooperation in an asymmetrical relation, political threat, and diplomatic escalation for electoral purposes. The variety of these cases illustrates the specificity of statecraft in comparison with foreign policy analysis. While the latter refers to a general and long­term strategy, the former is context­dependent and specific to achievement of a precise desired outcome.
本文评估了移民治理和外交在国家间关系中作为治国手段的理论轮廓和有效性。第一部分概述了国际关系和政治理论领域内移民的利害关系和挑战。特别是,移民的范畴违背了民族国家的理论模型,而传统的国际关系和政治理论正是建立在这个模型之上的。第二部分强调了国家如何通过移民的证券化,将移民作为重申其定义特征的工具:加强其边界,使国家主权合法化,并建立社会安全。第三部分展示了由于缺乏全球规范框架,治国方略类别在双边层面移民治理背景下的有用性。这种关系可以达到不同的目的,取决于具体情况:伤害、威慑、讨价还价、升级。最后一部分介绍了美国和俄罗斯以及欧盟外部边界和申根区域内的成员国应用移民治国方术的当代案例研究。这些事件证明了“移民治国方略”的要素集中在几个目标上:贸易勒索、不对称关系中的合作、政治威胁和为选举目的的外交升级。与外交政策分析相比,这些案例的多样性说明了治国方略的特殊性。后者指的是一般和长期战略,而前者则依赖于具体情况,具体到实现精确的预期结果。
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引用次数: 0
STEIN ROKKAN’S CONCEPTUAL MAP OF EUROPE Stein rokkan的欧洲概念地图
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2019.17.4.59.1
Mikhail Ilyin, A. Barsukova
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引用次数: 1
THEORIES OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND PROSPECTS OF A MILITARY ALLIANCE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA 国际关系理论与俄中军事同盟前景
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2019.17.4.59.6
A. Kireeva
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引用次数: 2
NORTHERN SEA ROUTE IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIANAMERICAN RELATIONS 俄美关系背景下的北海航线
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2019.17.4.59.7
E. Galimullin, Irina Benedyk
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引用次数: 0
Yuan Internationalization: Status and Perspectives 人民币国际化:现状与展望
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2020.18.3.62.4
V. Shapovalov
The article provides information about renminbi internationalization stages, actions taken by Chinese authorities in this field as well as suggests possible ways for further increasing usage of the currency in international operations. The analysis is based on international currency criteria used by IMF and SWIFT and well as suggestions of Russian and foreign researchers. Launching the process of renminbi internationalization China was looking to achieve a number of economic and political goals. Usage on the national currency in international operations increases the country’s prestige in the world, facilitates international transaction for domestic economic actors and allows influencing foreign counterparts. China achieved significant success in internationalizing its national currency in the past decade. Yuan has been part of IMF reserve currencies for more than three years. However, the share of renminbi in global settlements and investments is still moderate and does not correspond to the size of the country’s economy. The USA maintains their dominant role in the world’s financial system and is not interested in allowing China to increase its global influence. China is inviting its key trading partners to create yuan based international transactions system as an alternative to the US dollar. Despite the scale of the economy, volume of foreign investments and size of the internal securities market – international participants show relatively low interest for renminbi usage. Comparison of the anticipated goals and actions taken and with the current outcomes allows suggesting conceding amendments to the strategy of increasing renminbi usage in the world. This can be achieved by removing restrictions for international capital movements and facilitating access to yuan liquidity and instruments for international participants.
本文提供了有关人民币国际化阶段的信息,中国当局在这一领域采取的行动,并提出了进一步增加人民币在国际业务中使用的可能方法。该分析基于IMF和SWIFT使用的国际货币标准,以及俄罗斯和外国研究人员的建议。启动人民币国际化进程,中国希望实现一系列经济和政治目标。在国际业务中使用本国货币增加了该国在世界上的声望,促进了国内经济行动者的国际交易,并允许影响外国同行。过去十年,中国在人民币国际化方面取得了重大成功。人民币成为国际货币基金组织储备货币已有三年多的时间。然而,人民币在全球结算和投资中的份额仍然不大,与中国的经济规模不相称。美国在世界金融体系中保持着主导地位,对允许中国增加其全球影响力不感兴趣。中国正邀请其主要贸易伙伴创建以人民币为基础的国际交易体系,作为美元的替代品。尽管中国经济规模庞大,外国投资规模庞大,国内证券市场规模庞大,但国际参与者对使用人民币的兴趣相对较低。将预期目标和已采取的行动与目前的结果进行比较,可以建议对增加人民币在全球使用的战略作出让步。这可以通过取消对国际资本流动的限制,并为国际参与者获得人民币流动性和工具提供便利来实现。
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引用次数: 0
Network Dynamics of Technology Diffusion in International Arms Transfers 国际武器转让中技术扩散的网络动力学
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2020.18.4.63.5
A. Maltsev
This article explores the role of technology proliferation within the international arms trade as the major part of political structure of international system. The first part of the article suggests a brief overview of the existing studies of international arms transfer as an integral system in international relations, specifically emphasizing the impact of Krause’s (1992) “diffusion of technology” theoretical concept on the literature of 1990–2000-s. The focus of the review is on the intersection between the studies of specific technological transfers and more generalized empirical research works reveals an interesting scientific puzzle – on the one hand key arms manufacturer states accumulate most of the military R&D thus securing their place on the top of the suppliers’ hierarchy, but on the other hand more and more states acquire capabilities to produce military hardware and they more willingly interact with each other establishing strong horizontal bonds with each other to achieve some political independence and maximize economic efficiency (so-called globalization of arms production). In the second part of the article, the network-based approach is suggested as a solution to the market-hierarchy paradox, with some overview of the latest research of arms transfers via Social Network Analysis (SNA) methodology. The third and the last part of the article provides first empirical investigation of the international military technology transfers using original operationalization approach based on SIPRI Arms Transfer Database information of localized production interstate transfers. Finally, the network graphs are constructed to compare general centrality metrics and locate network communities using the Blondel’s method for community detection. The network topology demonstrates significant interconnections between secondary suppliers within technology transfers sub-network, compared to “regular” transfers sub-network, as well as the existence of a “feedback loop” for the license transfers. Overall the empirical results provide positive evidence for Krause’s “diffusion of technology” concept and also support previous network studies of dissimilarities between USA and USSR dependent sub-network – the asymmetry between them appears to be even more stark on the license transfers data.
本文探讨了作为国际体系政治结构主要组成部分的技术扩散在国际武器贸易中的作用。文章的第一部分简要概述了国际武器转让作为国际关系中一个不可分割的系统的现有研究,特别强调Krause(1992)的“技术扩散”理论概念对1990 - 2000- 5年间文献的影响。审查的重点是具体技术转让研究与更广泛的实证研究工作之间的交叉点,揭示了一个有趣的科学难题——一方面,主要武器制造商国家积累了大部分军事研发,从而确保了它们在供应商等级制度顶端的地位;但另一方面,越来越多的国家获得了生产军事硬件的能力,他们更愿意相互交流,建立强大的横向联系,以实现一定的政治独立,最大限度地提高经济效率(所谓的武器生产全球化)。在文章的第二部分,提出了基于网络的方法作为解决市场等级悖论的方法,并概述了通过社会网络分析(SNA)方法对武器转让的最新研究。文章的第三部分和最后一部分基于SIPRI武器转让数据库本地化生产州际转移信息,采用原始操作化方法对国际军事技术转让进行了首次实证研究。最后,构建网络图来比较一般的中心性指标,并使用Blondel的社区检测方法定位网络社区。与“常规”转让子网相比,网络拓扑结构显示了技术转让子网中二级供应商之间的重要互连,以及许可证转让的“反馈回路”的存在。总体而言,实证结果为Krause的“技术扩散”概念提供了积极的证据,也支持了之前关于美国和苏联依赖子网络之间差异的网络研究——它们之间的不对称在许可证传输数据上显得更加明显。
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引用次数: 2
Facets of Interdependency in Russia-US Relations 俄美关系中相互依存的几个方面
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/IT.2020.18.2.61.4
Y. Nadtochey
The appliance of interdependence concepts in the International Relations studies can hardly be regarded as something new. However, slowing down globalization and rising international tensions even among partner or allied states make rethinking of these concepts relevant. The notion that interdependence may ease tensions was put under question and opposed by the idea that interdependence may become a source of conflict. Scholars also missed their focus on conceptualization of interdependence forgetting that it was not a product of globalization, rather a result of the Cold War era. Thus, it can be applied to relations not only between partner countries, but also rivals, as was in the case of the U.S.-Soviet relations. The dense fabric of bilateral agreements, institutions, and regimes in various fields (primarily in security domain) prevented superpowers from a destructive conflict. After the collapse of the bipolar world, both states tried to consolidate the legacy of interdependence by increasing cooperation, transferring relations from mutual assured destruction to sustainable partnership, from deterrence to security community. However, structural changes in world politics reshaped Russian-American relations. Unlike the Cold War period with its unique U.S.-Soviet interdependence model, which served as a necessary precondition for lasting peace, contemporary Russian, as well as American decision-makers do not tend to estimate cooperation between two countries as critical in terms of national security and conflict prevention. In contrast, they are more likely to treat bilateral relations as too costly and burdening. Moscow and Washington increasingly prefer to be unbound in achieving their short- or long-term political goals and choose the way of unilateral decisions and actions with no corresponding with the counterpart. These risky policies of mutual neglect increase the likelihood of future conflict between the two powers.
相互依存概念在国际关系研究中的应用并不是什么新鲜事物。然而,全球化的放缓和甚至在伙伴或盟国之间日益加剧的国际紧张局势使得重新思考这些概念变得有意义。相互依赖可以缓解紧张局势的观念受到质疑,并受到相互依赖可能成为冲突根源的观念的反对。学者们也忘记了他们对相互依存概念化的关注,忘记了它不是全球化的产物,而是冷战时代的结果。因此,它不仅适用于伙伴国家之间的关系,也适用于竞争对手之间的关系,就像美苏关系一样。在各个领域(主要是安全领域),双边协议、机构和制度的密集结构阻止了超级大国发生破坏性冲突。在两极世界崩溃后,两国都试图通过加强合作来巩固相互依存的遗产,将关系从相互确保毁灭转变为可持续的伙伴关系,从威慑转变为安全共同体。然而,世界政治的结构性变化重塑了俄美关系。冷战时期美苏相互依存的独特模式是持久和平的必要前提,而当代俄罗斯和美国的决策者并不倾向于认为两国之间的合作对国家安全和预防冲突至关重要。相反,他们更有可能将双边关系视为代价过高和负担过重。莫斯科和华盛顿越来越倾向于不受约束地实现他们的短期或长期政治目标,并选择单方面决定和行动的方式,而不与对方相对应。这些相互忽视的危险政策增加了两个大国未来发生冲突的可能性。
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引用次数: 0
The EU Choice towards Integration in the Midst of COVID-19 Pandemics 2019冠状病毒病大流行期间欧盟一体化的选择
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/IT.2020.18.4.63.4
M. Entin, E. Entina, V. Voynikov
The Covid-19 pandemic was a catalyst for the growing systemic crisis of the EU and at the same time gave the Union an impetus towards its qualitatively new development in favor of deeper integration, expressed in a change in the financial and economic space of the EU. Realizing the risks of their internal destabilization, the EU core countries decided to sacrifice the surplus from their economic successes through the socialization of debts in order to save the most affected peripheral Member States to preserve both the integration union and the European idea itself. The purpose of this article is to explain the difficulty of making this decision and its compromise nature, as well as to clarify the likely consequences and suggest options for the further development of the situation. The authors first compare the pros and cons of debt socialization. Then the variables are compared: the Spanish proposal, the Franco-German initiative and the negotiating platform on the "next generation EU" by Ursula von der Leyen with the fundamental points of the European Council compromise decision. It also provides answers to questions about the volume, conditions, mechanism, and control over the expenditure of the financial assistance provided. The breakthrough steps taken by the Member States towards finding an optimal solution are analyzed. The result of the study is a balanced conclusion about the ambiguous nature of the decision adopted by the EU but having a historical significance and opening prospects for the further deepening of integration processes. This is facilitated by reaching an agreement on the need to bring the core of the EU closer to the periphery through the socialization of debts, as well as the importance of structural reforms that would ensure the construction of a harmonious economy of the future based on a new technological platform and formulated in a breakthrough plan called the next generation EU. Success is not guaranteed, as it depends on the behavior of all Member States, but it is real.
新冠肺炎大流行是欧盟系统性危机加剧的催化剂,同时也推动了欧盟朝着有利于深化一体化的质的新发展,体现在欧盟金融和经济空间的变化上。意识到其内部不稳定的风险,欧盟核心国家决定牺牲其经济成功的盈余,通过债务社会化来拯救受影响最大的外围成员国,以保护一体化联盟和欧洲理念本身。本文的目的是解释作出这一决定的困难及其妥协性质,并澄清可能的后果,并为局势的进一步发展提出建议。本文首先比较了债务社会化的利弊。然后将西班牙提案、法德倡议和冯德莱恩提出的“下一代欧盟”谈判平台与欧盟理事会妥协决定的基本点进行比较。它还回答了有关所提供财政援助的数量、条件、机制和支出控制的问题。分析了会员国为寻求最佳解决办法所采取的突破性步骤。研究结果是一个平衡的结论,即欧盟通过的决定的模糊性,但具有历史意义,并为进一步深化一体化进程开辟了前景。通过达成协议,需要通过债务社会化使欧盟的核心更接近边缘,以及结构改革的重要性,以确保构建基于新技术平台的未来和谐经济,并在称为下一代欧盟的突破性计划中制定,从而促进了这一点。不能保证成功,因为它取决于所有会员国的行为,但它是真实的。
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引用次数: 0
Debate on the Istanbul Canal in Russian and Turkish Publications 俄罗斯和土耳其出版物中关于伊斯坦布尔运河的辩论
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2020.18.3.62.1
A. Boldyrev
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引用次数: 0
Transboundary Hydrocarbon Resources: Political and Legal Mechanisms for Preventing International Conflicts 跨界碳氢化合物资源:防止国际冲突的政治和法律机制
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2020.18.3.62.2
A. Vylegzhanin, V. Salygin, K. Krymskaya
Since hydrocarbon resources found close to the delimitation line between two or more states require special regulation due to its complex and sensitive nature, the states involved have to consider national legislation and applicable international instruments relating to transboundary exploitation, as well as interests of their oil and gas companies. However, when one state unilaterally explores or exploits the deposit from its side of the delimitation line, it ipso facto violates the rights of the other state, thus leading to a potential international conflict, that would take years to settle. The previously practiced method of seizing such deposits on the “first come – first take” basis is currently considered fraught with interstate conflicts. Moreover, this approach is, economically irrational and, without any doubt, bears a greater negative impact on the environment, thus making an agreed regime of transboundary subsoil use more viable. Often coastal states reach an agreement on transboundary activities, that calls for intergovernmental consultations to be held once a particularly transboundary deposit is discovered. It is usually followed by conclusion of contract between operating companies, that addresses all the technical issues of exploration and exploitation of specific field. The existing political and legal mechanisms of transboundary subsoil regulation prove to be successful, especially in previously disputed maritime areas. State practice demonstrates the tendency towards universal agreement-based exploration and exploitation of transboundary hydrocarbon resources. Applicable political and legal mechanisms will presumably evolve and differ from one another depending on the individual characteristics of oil and gas fields in question and areas where the deposits are located.
由于在两个或两个以上国家之间的分界线附近发现的碳氢化合物资源由于其复杂和敏感的性质,需要特殊的监管,所涉及的国家必须考虑与跨界开采有关的国家立法和适用的国际文书,以及其石油和天然气公司的利益。然而,当一个国家单方面从分界线的本国一侧勘探或开采矿藏时,它事实上侵犯了另一个国家的权利,从而导致潜在的国际冲突,这将需要数年才能解决。以前实行的以“先到先得”为基础夺取此类矿藏的方法,目前被认为充满了国家间的冲突。此外,这种做法在经济上是不合理的,而且毫无疑问对环境产生更大的负面影响,从而使商定的跨界底土使用制度更加可行。沿海国家通常会就跨界活动达成协议,一旦发现特别的跨界矿藏,就要求举行政府间磋商。随后通常是作业公司之间签订合同,解决勘探和开发特定油田的所有技术问题。现有的跨界底土管理的政治和法律机制证明是成功的,特别是在以前有争议的海域。国家实践表明,跨境油气资源勘探开发趋向于普遍协议。适用的政治和法律机制可能会根据有关油气田的个别特点和矿藏所在地区的不同而演变和不同。
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引用次数: 0
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Mezhdunarodnye Protsessy
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