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“There Is No Alternative to the Standard of Civility...” “文明的标准是无可替代的……”
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2020.18.3.62.9
V. Mikhailenko
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引用次数: 0
“Russian Question” in the Focus of European Geopolitics 欧洲地缘政治焦点中的“俄罗斯问题”
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2020.18.3.62.5
E. Obichkina
This article is about a book authored by Thomas Gomart on ten major geopolitical challenges for Europe today, Russia’s return to the club of the most influential world powers being one of them. A natural partner, Russia is being increasingly alienated from Europe and reciprocates to it by taking a diverging path. Is this emerging geostrategic r irreversible? This question is of critical relevance for the future of the both parts of the continent. An analysis of Europeans’ perceptions of the balance of geopolitical interests of Western Europe and Russia provides a key to understanding the reasons behind the growing divergence between them. Thomas Gomart, Director of IFRI (Institut français des relations internationales), the leading international relations think tank of France, is a top French expert in geopolitics who also specializes in Russian politics. His views and recommendations largely echo key foreign policy statements and actions of Emmanuel Macron, which reveals a high degree of their representativeness of French political elite views. Thomas Gomart's forecasts respond to the most urgent needs of European geopolitics from the angle of the interests of France which is committed to acting on behalf of the European Union and aims to position an expanded Western Europe as an independent center of power in the emerging world hierarchy. For Russian readers such publications are interesting from two points of view: they give an idea of the direction in which this type of research is going and of the methodology used in geostrategic forecasting. In particular, the book demonstrates significant cognitive changes in the analysis of international behavior of Russia. They stem from the new European reality, as represented, in particular, by Europe’s political and intellectual elite which has been molded by the 70 years of NATO’s existence and almost 65 years of the European Homo Atlanticus project. The overall conclusion is rather disappointing for Russia. Europeans regard its growing power as a challenge, not as an opportunity to join efforts to strengthen the continent's position in the face of the intensifying US-China rivalry. Moscow sees this as a break with the main pillar of French diplomacy — its Gaullist tradition, whereas, in fact, it merely reflects, in the spirit of classical realism, current assessments of the balance of power in Europe and the world. Any motivation for returning to partnership has decrease, firstly, due to Russian leaders’ flat refusal to adopt the Western model of convergence and, secondly, because of the forecasts of the weakening of the country's economic capacity. The growth of Russia’s military might clashes with the interests of Western Europe. If Russia turns to China, driven by the asymmetry of economic opportunities, it risks taking a subordinate role, if not a marginal one, in the global Great Silk Road project. At the same time, Russia, a great continental power spanning China and the European Union, in the
本文是关于托马斯·戈马特(Thomas Gomart)撰写的一本关于当今欧洲面临的十大地缘政治挑战的书,其中之一就是俄罗斯重返最具影响力的世界大国俱乐部。作为一个天然的合作伙伴,俄罗斯正日益与欧洲疏远,并选择了一条不同的道路作为回报。这种新兴的地缘战略是不可逆转的吗?这个问题对非洲大陆两个部分的未来都具有关键意义。分析欧洲人对西欧和俄罗斯地缘政治利益平衡的看法,是理解两者之间分歧日益扩大背后原因的关键。法国国际关系智库——法国国际关系研究所(IFRI)所长托马斯·戈马特(Thomas Gomart)是法国顶尖的地缘政治专家,也是俄罗斯政治专家。他的观点和建议在很大程度上与埃马纽埃尔·马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)的主要外交政策声明和行动相呼应,这显示出他们在很大程度上代表了法国政治精英的观点。Thomas Gomart的预测从法国利益的角度回应了欧洲地缘政治最迫切的需求,法国致力于代表欧盟行动,旨在将扩大的西欧定位为新兴世界等级制度中的独立权力中心。对于俄罗斯读者来说,这类出版物从两个角度来看是有趣的:它们提供了这类研究的发展方向和用于地缘战略预测的方法的概念。特别是,该书在分析俄罗斯的国际行为时表现出了重大的认知变化。它们源于新的欧洲现实,尤其是欧洲政治和知识精英所代表的现实,这些精英受到北约70年的存在和近65年的欧洲Homo Atlanticus计划的塑造。总的结论对俄罗斯来说相当令人失望。面对日益加剧的美中竞争,欧洲人将其日益增长的实力视为一种挑战,而不是共同努力加强欧洲大陆地位的机会。莫斯科方面认为,这与法国外交的主要支柱——戴高乐主义传统——决裂了。然而,实际上,基于古典现实主义的精神,这只是反映了当前对欧洲和世界力量平衡的评估。任何回归伙伴关系的动机都在减少,首先,由于俄罗斯领导人断然拒绝采用西方的趋同模式,其次,由于对该国经济能力减弱的预测。俄罗斯军事力量的增长与西欧的利益相冲突。如果俄罗斯在经济机会不对称的驱动下转向中国,那么它可能会在全球伟大的丝绸之路项目中扮演从属角色,如果不是边缘角色的话。与此同时,俄罗斯,一个跨越中国和欧盟的大陆大国,在缺乏任何共同点和与西欧的持续疏远的情况下,可能会发现自己被排除在未来涉及西方和印度太平洋地区的地缘政治和地缘经济行动的主要舞台之外。
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引用次数: 0
What Is State Failure? 什么是国家失败?
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2020.18.3.62.7
D. Shevsky
The article is devoted to an overview of state failure conceptualization. One of the most popular concepts was failed state after transformed in fragile state. These two concepts are based on weberian understanding of the state that is irrelevant from historical perspective. Also critics have denoted to political labeling, incorrectness and the lack of formalization of these concepts. Since these indices were built for practical purposes, a full­fledged theoretical foundation for the idea of state weakness was elaborated in great details in a concept of state capacity. This concept tries to surpass the narrow weberian understanding of the state and offers three dimensions of state capacity: fiscal­economic, administrative­bureaucratic and the control over violence. The drawback of this concept is an absence of the threshold to understand whether the state has experienced state failure or not. The most formalized approach to measure state failure is created within a concept of state collapse. This concept has common with the previous concept because bases on the same features (fiscal, administrative and military). Using this concept faces some difficulties because of different cases are the same according to this concept. Sociology offered a concept of state breakdown which has three points: fiscal crisis, elite conflict and mass mobilization. After analyzing both sociological and anthropological literature the author offers to add to these three criteria two additional: deligitimation (or change of self­description in the system) and territorial disintegration.
这篇文章致力于概述国家失败的概念。其中一个最流行的概念是脆弱状态转化后的失效状态。这两个概念是基于韦伯对国家的理解,从历史的角度来看,这是不相关的。此外,批评者还指出了这些概念的政治标签、不正确和缺乏形式化。由于这些指标是为实际目的而建立的,因此在国家能力的概念中详细阐述了国家软弱观念的完整理论基础。这一概念试图超越韦伯对国家的狭隘理解,并提供了国家能力的三个维度:财政-经济、行政-官僚和对暴力的控制。这个概念的缺点是缺乏理解状态是否经历过状态失败的阈值。衡量国家失败的最形式化方法是在国家崩溃的概念中创建的。这个概念与前一个概念有共同之处,因为它基于相同的特征(财政、行政和军事)。使用这一概念会遇到一些困难,因为根据这一概念不同的情况是相同的。社会学提出了一个国家崩溃的概念,它有三点:财政危机、精英冲突和群众动员。在分析了社会学和人类学文献之后,作者提出在这三个标准之外增加两个额外的标准:非合法化(或系统中自我描述的变化)和领土解体。
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引用次数: 0
Innovative Transformation of Superplatforms 超级平台的创新转型
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2020.18.4.63.2
I. Danilin
Superplatforms – diversified digital corporations from the United States (Amazon, Google and others grouped in FAMGA/GAFAM) and China (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) dominating the Internet markets – are the leading actors of digital economy. In terms of revenue, markets, and capitalization they are already among the largest multinational corporations. Many basic factors of their success are still in place, but increased competition, diminishing importance of low base effects and other challenges forced them to sharpen focus on innovations and emerging technologies since late 2000s – early 2010s. This process was supported by a strong influx of capital from financial markets. As a result, superplatforms executed strong growth of research and development (R&D) expenditures and investments in venture markets – especially in the domain of emerging technologies. By the end of 2010s, superplatforms appeared among leading technology and innovation actors of respective National Innovation Systems (NIS) in terms of their share of national business R&D, venture investments and because of unique role in promoting digital transformation of the U.S.A. and China. It may also be stated, that superplatforms now are an important factor of both potential and competitiveness of the superpowers, including issues of digital sovereignty. For the future, disruptive innovations and technologies will still be in focus of the superplatforms. This is especially true since superplatforms need new quality of innovative development: further accelerated increase of R&D and venture investments seem to be almost impossible in new realm of the financial markets. The process will be more influenced by the external factors, than in the previous decade. (Among them are changes in the regulatory environment – also to compensate challenging monopolistic behaviors of FAMGA and BAT; changing global trade and investment dynamics – including technological “war” between the U.S.A. and China; rise of global competition). As a result, we may envision further rise of importance of the superplatforms for NIS and their transformation into a new factor of economic and digital power – and new arena of global competition for the U.S.A. and China.
超级平台-来自美国(亚马逊,b谷歌和其他在FAMGA/GAFAM分组的公司)和中国(b百度,阿里巴巴,腾讯)主导互联网市场的多元化数字公司-是数字经济的主要参与者。在收入、市场和资本方面,他们已经跻身最大的跨国公司之列。它们成功的许多基本因素仍然存在,但自2000年代末至2010年代初以来,竞争加剧、低基数效应的重要性减弱以及其他挑战迫使它们更加关注创新和新兴技术。这一进程得到了金融市场资金大量流入的支持。因此,超级平台实现了研发支出和风险市场投资的强劲增长,尤其是在新兴技术领域。到2010年代末,超级平台在各自国家创新系统(NIS)的领先技术和创新参与者中脱颖而出,无论是在国家商业研发、风险投资方面的份额,还是在推动美国和中国数字化转型方面的独特作用。也可以说,超级平台现在是超级大国潜力和竞争力的重要因素,包括数字主权问题。未来,颠覆性创新和技术仍将是超级平台关注的焦点。这一点尤其重要,因为超级平台需要创新发展的新质量:在金融市场的新领域,研发和风险投资的进一步加速增长似乎几乎是不可能的。这一进程将比过去十年更受外部因素的影响。(其中包括监管环境的变化——也是为了补偿FAMGA和BAT具有挑战性的垄断行为;不断变化的全球贸易和投资动态——包括中美之间的技术“战争”;全球竞争的兴起)。因此,我们可以预见,超级平台对国家情报系统的重要性将进一步上升,并将其转变为经济和数字力量的新因素,以及美国和中国全球竞争的新舞台。
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引用次数: 1
China and Japan in the Process of Financial Integration in Asia 亚洲金融一体化进程中的中国和日本
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2020.18.3.62.6
S. Nozdrev
The article discusses the main areas and features of China and Japan participation in the process of financial integration. A comparative analysis of the possibilities of interaction with Asian countries in the credit and securities markets has been carried out. A special place is given to China and Japan activities in regional financial organizations and associations. It is argued that sphere of regional financial integration is one of the areas of economic cooperation between the two countries where along with the trends towards cooperation there is also a process of increasing competition. Improving the quality of bilateral economic ties between China and Japan and the establishment of multilateral cooperation is not accompanied by a general restructuring of competitive relations in the region. A number of areas of economic activity remain in the sphere of competition which continues to increase both at the state and corporations and banks levels. China uses innovative aid technologies to create the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, eliminate existing bottlenecks, and acquire strategic assets in the region. Japan, despite strained relations with a number of Asian countries, continues to integrate into the regional economy through a network of production and logistics chains and is still a major source of capital for many Asian countries. All this suggests that, despite China's undoubted economic and financial success, it needs time to secure its leadership in the region. At the same time, the further deterioration of trade and economic relations between China and the United States, the consequences of the coronavirus crisis push China to more cooperation with Japan in stock, banking and currency areas, through regional economic organizations, and further expansion of the use of local currencies, primarily yen and renminbi, instead of dollars for investment and expansion of multilateral settlement and payment transactions in the region.
本文论述了中日两国参与金融一体化进程的主要领域和特点。对在信贷和证券市场上与亚洲国家互动的可能性进行了比较分析。中日两国在区域金融组织和协会的活动中占有特殊地位。文章认为,区域金融一体化领域是两国经济合作的领域之一,在合作的同时,也存在着竞争加剧的过程。在提高中日双边经济关系质量和建立多边合作的同时,本地区的竞争关系并没有得到全面调整。经济活动的一些领域仍然处于竞争领域,在国家、公司和银行一级的竞争都在继续增加。中国利用创新的援助技术创建了亚洲基础设施投资银行,消除了现有的瓶颈,并获得了该地区的战略资产。尽管日本与一些亚洲国家关系紧张,但仍通过生产和物流链网络继续融入区域经济,并且仍然是许多亚洲国家的主要资金来源。所有这些都表明,尽管中国在经济和金融方面取得了无可置疑的成功,但它需要时间来巩固其在该地区的领导地位。与此同时,中美经贸关系的进一步恶化,冠状病毒危机的后果,促使中国通过区域经济组织,在股票、银行和货币领域与日本加强合作,并进一步扩大使用当地货币,主要是日元和人民币,而不是美元进行投资,扩大该地区的多边结算和支付交易。
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引用次数: 0
US Coalition Diplomacy on the Korean Issue: Record of the Geneva Conference of 1954 美国在朝鲜问题上的同盟外交——1954年日内瓦会议记录
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2020.18.4.63.7
V. Yungblyud, D. Sadakov
The negotiation of parameters for the settlement of an armed conflict is always a complex process in which the interests of all its immediate participants and other concerned parties collide. One of the most striking examples of such confrontations is the settlement process at the end of the Korean War of 1950–1953, which culminated in the Geneva Conference of 1954. The purpose of the article is to specify the role of the United States as the leader of the UN coalition in the negotiations, as a result of which, after three years of war involving about two dozen countries, the situation returned to its original state – the pre-war border between North and South Korea was restored, and the most active and influential members of the opposing alliances agreed to a truce. The archival documents that have become available in recent years allow us to significantly supplement the ideas formed in domestic and foreign historiography about the reasons for the incompleteness of the peace settlement process in Korea after the end of the war of 1950– 1953. The article examines the contribution of the US diplomacy to creating of the Korean agenda at the conference, and shows that the UN coalition had been functioning in the "double deterrence" mode by the start of the negotiations in Geneva. The role of the United States as the leader of the military-political alliance in the development of plans for the peninsula unification is clarified. The conclusion is justified that already in the second half of May 1954, the United States, when making decisions, primarily proceeded from the motives of propaganda and considered seriously the conclusion to negotiations. As a result, the chance to resolve the Korean issue was ignored and the Geneva Conference turned into a means of fundamentalizing the American strategy in the Northeast Pacific region. It is shown that the results of the conference were in line with the immediate expectations of Washington and its long-term strategy in the Asia-Pacific region. The results of the Korean phase of the Geneva Conference consolidated the division of Korea into two hostile states and for a long time closed the question of possible union of the country.
谈判解决武装冲突的参数始终是一个复杂的过程,在这个过程中,所有直接参与者和其他有关各方的利益发生冲突。这种对抗最显著的例子之一是1950-1953年朝鲜战争结束时的解决进程,该进程在1954年日内瓦会议上达到高潮。这篇文章的目的是明确美国作为联合国联盟领导人在谈判中的作用,其结果是,经过三年的战争涉及二十多个国家,局势回到了原来的状态-南北朝鲜之间的战前边界恢复了,反对联盟中最活跃和最有影响力的成员同意休战。近年来获得的档案文件使我们能够大大补充国内外史学对1950 - 1953年战争结束后朝鲜和平解决进程不完整的原因所形成的看法。文章分析了美国外交对制定会议韩国议题的贡献,并指出,从日内瓦谈判开始,联合国联盟就一直在以“双重威慑”模式运作。明确了美国作为军事政治同盟的领导者在制定韩半岛统一计划中的作用。结论是合理的,即在1954年5月下半月,美国在作出决定时,主要是从宣传的动机出发,并认真考虑结束谈判。结果,解决朝鲜问题的机会被忽视,日内瓦会议成为美国在东北太平洋地区的战略的基础。由此可见,此次会议的结果符合美国的当前期望和亚太地区的长期战略。日内瓦会议朝鲜阶段的结果将朝鲜分裂为两个敌对的国家,并在很长一段时间内关闭了该国可能的统一问题。
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引用次数: 0
Digital Toolbox of Diplomatic Service 外交服务数字工具箱
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2020.18.4.63.9
G. Sufiyanova, E. Muslimova
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引用次数: 0
Global Environmental Governance and International Environmental Diplomacy 全球环境治理与国际环境外交
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2020.18.3.62.8
E. Bliznetskaya
Governance is so commonly used in academic literature and policy papers in the field of international environmental politics and as such has overtaken the words “policy”, “diplomacy” and “cooperation”. This phenomenon has empirical support – environmental policy is one of the most internalized areas of regulation, and states were no longer the sole subject of international rulemaking. The current state of the art in studying global environmental politics is quite paradoxical. Notwithstanding the increased recognition of the importance of non-state, transnational actors and mechanisms to solve global environmental problems, little attention is been paid to the study of the relationship between interstate and non-state forms of interaction. That raises the question of how multilateral environmental diplomacy and global environmental governance are connected with each other in the academic peer-reviewed journals. What kind of international interactions do they study and what links them? To answer these questions, the peer-reviewed articles from SCOPUS and Web of Science databases on multilateral environmental diplomacy and global environmental governance analyzed through a systematic literature review. To understand the nature of the two approaches in studying global environmental politics, I summarize the differences and then identify the links between them. In each of the research areas, sub-directions and the related content were identified, while the typology of the articles allowed to identify the relationships between them. In each of the research areas, sub-directions and the related content were identified, while the typology of the articles helped to highlight the relationships between them. The main finding includes the confirmation that environmental diplomacy and environmental governance studying mostly in isolation from each other. The main finding includes the confirmation that environmental diplomacy and environmental governance studying mostly in isolation especially regarding the interplay between interstate or non-state forms of cooperation as well as assessments of their significance. Two dimensions of the politics – formal negotiations on collective actions and weakly institutionalized public space that involves various stakeholders, movements and initiatives – exists in parallel to each other. At the same time, the study demonstrated the need to develop more responsive notions of international environmental diplomacy, since it is no longer specific only to the study of negotiations and other forms of interstate interaction.
在国际环境政治领域的学术文献和政策文件中,“治理”一词被广泛使用,并因此取代了“政策”、“外交”和“合作”等词。这种现象有经验支持——环境政策是最内部化的监管领域之一,国家不再是国际规则制定的唯一主体。目前全球环境政治研究的现状是相当矛盾的。尽管人们日益认识到非国家、跨国行为体和机制对解决全球环境问题的重要性,但对国家间和非国家形式的相互作用之间关系的研究却很少受到重视。这就提出了多边环境外交和全球环境治理如何在同行评议的学术期刊上相互联系的问题。他们研究什么样的国际互动,它们之间有什么联系?为了回答这些问题,通过系统的文献综述,对SCOPUS和Web of Science数据库中有关多边环境外交和全球环境治理的同行评议文章进行了分析。为了理解研究全球环境政治的两种方法的本质,我总结了它们之间的差异,然后确定它们之间的联系。在每个研究领域中,确定了子方向和相关内容,而文章的类型学允许确定它们之间的关系。在每个研究领域中,确定了子方向和相关内容,而文章的类型学有助于突出它们之间的关系。主要发现包括确认环境外交和环境治理研究大多是相互孤立的。主要发现包括确认环境外交和环境治理的研究大多是孤立的,特别是关于国家间或非国家形式的合作之间的相互作用以及对其重要性的评估。政治的两个维度——关于集体行动的正式谈判和涉及各种利益相关者、运动和倡议的弱制度化公共空间——彼此平行存在。与此同时,这项研究表明,有必要发展更具反应性的国际环境外交概念,因为它不再仅仅局限于研究谈判和其他形式的国家间相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
Global Uncertainty as a Factor in IR Evolution 全球不确定性在IR演化中的作用
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2020.18.4.63.8
M. Bukharin
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引用次数: 0
Korea in the Early 21st Century and Russia’s Interests 21世纪初的韩国与俄罗斯的利益
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17994/it.2020.18.4.63.6
A. Lukin, O. Pugacheva
The article is a response to a new, pioneering book Modern Korea. Metamorphoses of Turbulent Years (2008–2020) written by a group of leading Russian experts on Korea from MGIMO University: Anatoly Torkunov, Georgy Toloraya, and Ilya Dyachkov. The book is a valuable addition to the existing literature and a product of a unique approach to modern Korean studies conducted at MGIMO. The article examines and develops the comprehensive analysis provided by MGIMO professors, point out pressing issues on the Korean Peninsula and assess Russia’s potential role in solving them. The fact that the goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula based on Pyonyang’s rejection of nuclear weapons not only has not been achieved, but became even more distant than before, leads us to questioning the logic behind the authors' recommendation for Russia to withdraw its support from the international system of sanctions against Pyongyang and to move closer to North Korean. We argue that easing the sanctions may mean recognizing that Russia does not believe in this goal and wishes to encourage North Korea's refusal to comply with the demands of the international community. Moreover, such an approach could be perceived as evidence of Russia’s support of some new academic theories which claim that the very system of nonproliferation has become outdated and can even be abolished altogether. At the same time, this position would reduce the role of Russia in the Korean settlement, which would inevitably have a negative impact on DPRK's renunciation of nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future. The article argues that such views, especially that the non-proliferation strategy is outdated, come into a direct contradiction with Russia's interests. The recognition of DPRK's nuclear status may spark a chain reaction in the quest for nuclear weapons in the region which in turn would create a serious security threat for Russia's eastern regions. In addition, an increase in the number of nuclear states would devalue Russia’s status as a nuclear power, thus, the policy of nonproliferation of nuclear weapons should remain a priority of Russia’s foreign policy. Overall, we conclude that Moscow's policy towards the Korean peninsula should be based on careful evaluation of the current international situation as well as Russia’s interests, and not on outdated and often counterproductive Soviet tradition.
这篇文章是对具有开拓性的新书《现代韩国》的回应。《动荡岁月的蜕变》(2008-2020),由俄罗斯莫斯科国际政治与经济学院朝鲜问题专家阿纳托利·托尔库诺夫、格奥尔基·托洛拉亚和伊利亚·迪亚奇科夫撰写。这本书是对现有文献的宝贵补充,也是MGIMO对现代韩国研究的独特方法的产物。本文对MGIMO教授们的综合分析进行了分析和发展,指出了朝鲜半岛的紧迫问题,并对俄罗斯在解决这些问题方面的潜在作用进行了评估。以北韩弃核为基础的韩半岛无核化目标不仅没有实现,而且变得更加遥远,这不禁让人质疑作者建议俄罗斯退出对北韩制裁国际体系、向北韩靠拢的逻辑。我们认为,放松制裁可能意味着承认俄罗斯不相信这一目标,并希望鼓励朝鲜拒绝遵守国际社会的要求。此外,这种做法可以被视为俄罗斯支持一些新的学术理论的证据,这些理论声称不扩散制度本身已经过时,甚至可以完全废除。同时,这一立场将削弱俄罗斯在朝鲜问题解决中的作用,在可预见的未来,这将不可避免地对朝鲜弃核产生负面影响。文章认为,这种观点,特别是认为不扩散战略已经过时的观点,与俄罗斯的利益直接矛盾。承认朝鲜的核地位可能会引发该地区寻求核武器的连锁反应,进而对俄罗斯东部地区造成严重的安全威胁。此外,核国家数量的增加将降低俄罗斯作为核大国的地位,因此,不扩散核武器的政策仍应是俄罗斯外交政策的优先事项。总的来说,我们得出结论,莫斯科对朝鲜半岛的政策应该基于对当前国际形势和俄罗斯利益的仔细评估,而不是基于过时的、往往适得其反的苏联传统。
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