Pub Date : 2023-05-24DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2023-2-89-87-103
S. Kondapalli
The ongoing Russian military operation in Ukraine since February 2022 has presented significant challenges to China's foreign and security policies, as well as its economic and technological ties with the West. Initially, China refrained from criticizing Russia's military actions and adopted a "neutral" or "independent" stance in response to Western criticism. However, China was taken aback by the protracted nature of the conflict and Russia's inability to successfully conclude its military operation. This raised concerns within China, considering its own situation of potentially reunifying with Taiwan through military means if necessary. While there are distinctions between the situations in Ukraine and Taiwan, the initial speculation of China conducting military operations against Taiwan has gradually diminished, although military pressure on Taiwan remains. The conflict in Ukraine has also caused internal divisions within China and has had an impact on its relations with the West, which are crucial for China's rise on the global stage. This article aims to examine China's interests and positions regarding the ongoing Ukrainian conflict, the implications for its relations with Russia, and the opportunities and challenges that China faces in the current situation. The article employs an inductive approach, analyzing China's predicaments at four levels: perceptions within the decision-making bodies of the Communist Party, the foreign ministry, think-tanks, and the media community. It argues that in conjunction with China's economic contraction resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian military operation has prompted China to seriously contemplate how to safeguard its national interests, particularly with regard to Taiwan and its strategic objectives of attaining a prominent global position. These considerations carry medium to long-term implications for the evolving regional and global orders. In conclusion, the article briefly discusses the implications of these developments on India, shedding light on the broader regional dynamics influenced by China's response to the Ukrainian conflict.
{"title":"China’s Perceptions of Russia during the Ukraine Conflict","authors":"S. Kondapalli","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2023-2-89-87-103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2023-2-89-87-103","url":null,"abstract":"The ongoing Russian military operation in Ukraine since February 2022 has presented significant challenges to China's foreign and security policies, as well as its economic and technological ties with the West. Initially, China refrained from criticizing Russia's military actions and adopted a \"neutral\" or \"independent\" stance in response to Western criticism. However, China was taken aback by the protracted nature of the conflict and Russia's inability to successfully conclude its military operation. This raised concerns within China, considering its own situation of potentially reunifying with Taiwan through military means if necessary. While there are distinctions between the situations in Ukraine and Taiwan, the initial speculation of China conducting military operations against Taiwan has gradually diminished, although military pressure on Taiwan remains. The conflict in Ukraine has also caused internal divisions within China and has had an impact on its relations with the West, which are crucial for China's rise on the global stage. This article aims to examine China's interests and positions regarding the ongoing Ukrainian conflict, the implications for its relations with Russia, and the opportunities and challenges that China faces in the current situation. The article employs an inductive approach, analyzing China's predicaments at four levels: perceptions within the decision-making bodies of the Communist Party, the foreign ministry, think-tanks, and the media community. It argues that in conjunction with China's economic contraction resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian military operation has prompted China to seriously contemplate how to safeguard its national interests, particularly with regard to Taiwan and its strategic objectives of attaining a prominent global position. These considerations carry medium to long-term implications for the evolving regional and global orders. In conclusion, the article briefly discusses the implications of these developments on India, shedding light on the broader regional dynamics influenced by China's response to the Ukrainian conflict.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85410766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-24DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2023-2-89-198-215
R. Doraiswamy
The article examines the cultural relationships between Russia and India, which have existed for several centuries, and their impact on the development of political relations between the two countries, particularly in the twentieth century. Culture has played an important role in the multi-layered bilateral relations between India and the Soviet Union. However, with the fall of the Soviet Union and geopolitical reorientations, Russia had to focus on rebuilding its economy before engaging with soft power. Similarly, India liberalized its economy in the 1990s and adapted to changing political equations in the international order.Soft power, as defined by Joseph Nye, includes cultural resources, political values, and foreign policies that can be used to influence others. This article examines all three aspects of soft power and notes that Russia and India have channelized their cultural resources into public diplomacy since the 2000s, setting up institutions and bodies to deal with it. Despite their rich cultural resources and institutionalization of the dissemination of soft power, both countries do not fare well in soft power rankings.The article argues that changes in the international order since the 1990s, shifts in political ideologies, and the reorientation of the foreign policies of both countries have led them to seek new allies. While cultural relations between the two nations continue, soft power and public diplomacy have yet to realize their full potential in this fluid scenario.
{"title":"Assessing the Role of Soft Power in India-Russia Relations","authors":"R. Doraiswamy","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2023-2-89-198-215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2023-2-89-198-215","url":null,"abstract":"The article examines the cultural relationships between Russia and India, which have existed for several centuries, and their impact on the development of political relations between the two countries, particularly in the twentieth century. Culture has played an important role in the multi-layered bilateral relations between India and the Soviet Union. However, with the fall of the Soviet Union and geopolitical reorientations, Russia had to focus on rebuilding its economy before engaging with soft power. Similarly, India liberalized its economy in the 1990s and adapted to changing political equations in the international order.Soft power, as defined by Joseph Nye, includes cultural resources, political values, and foreign policies that can be used to influence others. This article examines all three aspects of soft power and notes that Russia and India have channelized their cultural resources into public diplomacy since the 2000s, setting up institutions and bodies to deal with it. Despite their rich cultural resources and institutionalization of the dissemination of soft power, both countries do not fare well in soft power rankings.The article argues that changes in the international order since the 1990s, shifts in political ideologies, and the reorientation of the foreign policies of both countries have led them to seek new allies. While cultural relations between the two nations continue, soft power and public diplomacy have yet to realize their full potential in this fluid scenario.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89754656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-24DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2023-2-89-120-141
Rajorshi Roy
The India-Russia strategic partnership has been characterized by a longstanding and mutually beneficial defence relationship that has spanned over fifty years. This partnership has witnessed a notable shift from a buyer-seller dynamic to joint development and production of cutting-edge weaponry. Consequently, a significant portion of India's defence arsenal is comprised of Soviet/Russian weapons systems. However, as India aims to diversify its sources of arms imports and promote greater self-reliance in defence production, Russia's prominent position in India's defence considerations is diminishing. Moreover, recent challenges stemming primarily from the Ukraine conflict have cast a shadow over this defence relationship.The focus is increasingly shifting towards how both countries can navigate practical and perceptual issues in their partnership. Furthermore, the exclusivity that India once enjoyed as the sole recipient of state-of-the-art Russian defence technology in its region, giving it a qualitative advantage over its adversaries, has been diluted with Russia now supplying advanced weaponry to China. Consequently, the Indo-Russian defence partnership is currently facing a significant test.This article critically examines and analyzes the ongoing trends in the India-Russia defence relationship and explores the implications arising from these developments. It seeks to shed light on the evolving dynamics and challenges that both countries must address in order to sustain and strengthen their defence partnership.
{"title":"India-Russia Defense Partnership: New Challenges and Future Prospects","authors":"Rajorshi Roy","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2023-2-89-120-141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2023-2-89-120-141","url":null,"abstract":"The India-Russia strategic partnership has been characterized by a longstanding and mutually beneficial defence relationship that has spanned over fifty years. This partnership has witnessed a notable shift from a buyer-seller dynamic to joint development and production of cutting-edge weaponry. Consequently, a significant portion of India's defence arsenal is comprised of Soviet/Russian weapons systems. However, as India aims to diversify its sources of arms imports and promote greater self-reliance in defence production, Russia's prominent position in India's defence considerations is diminishing. Moreover, recent challenges stemming primarily from the Ukraine conflict have cast a shadow over this defence relationship.The focus is increasingly shifting towards how both countries can navigate practical and perceptual issues in their partnership. Furthermore, the exclusivity that India once enjoyed as the sole recipient of state-of-the-art Russian defence technology in its region, giving it a qualitative advantage over its adversaries, has been diluted with Russia now supplying advanced weaponry to China. Consequently, the Indo-Russian defence partnership is currently facing a significant test.This article critically examines and analyzes the ongoing trends in the India-Russia defence relationship and explores the implications arising from these developments. It seeks to shed light on the evolving dynamics and challenges that both countries must address in order to sustain and strengthen their defence partnership.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86528928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-23DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2023-2-89-7-14
Nandan Unnikrishnan, Nivedita Kapoor
The introductory article delves into the evolving dynamics of the India-Russia relationship in the post-Soviet era, characterized by carefully forged cooperation, managed differences, and adaptation to the ever-changing international landscape. The authors emphasize that amidst the current state of global disorder, India and Russia can mutually assist each other within certain constraints. The article highlights how bilateral ties enable Moscow and New Delhi to pursue their national interests, with a commitment to safeguarding their respective sovereignty. The authors propose a nuanced understanding of the relationship, wherein India and Russia continue to engage in ways that uphold their own interests and prevent any infringement upon each other. The article sets the stage for further exploration of the numerous facets of the IndiaRussia relationship, examining areas such as strategic cooperation, economic ties, multilateral engagement, and addressing global challenges like climate change. Ultimately, it aims to provide insights into the complex and evolving nature of this bilateral partnership.
{"title":"Russia and India in the Evolving World Order. Introduction to the special issue","authors":"Nandan Unnikrishnan, Nivedita Kapoor","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2023-2-89-7-14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2023-2-89-7-14","url":null,"abstract":"The introductory article delves into the evolving dynamics of the India-Russia relationship in the post-Soviet era, characterized by carefully forged cooperation, managed differences, and adaptation to the ever-changing international landscape. The authors emphasize that amidst the current state of global disorder, India and Russia can mutually assist each other within certain constraints. The article highlights how bilateral ties enable Moscow and New Delhi to pursue their national interests, with a commitment to safeguarding their respective sovereignty. The authors propose a nuanced understanding of the relationship, wherein India and Russia continue to engage in ways that uphold their own interests and prevent any infringement upon each other. The article sets the stage for further exploration of the numerous facets of the IndiaRussia relationship, examining areas such as strategic cooperation, economic ties, multilateral engagement, and addressing global challenges like climate change. Ultimately, it aims to provide insights into the complex and evolving nature of this bilateral partnership.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86350506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-09DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-201-218
Ayşe İrem Aycan Özer
The article analyzes Turkey's changing regime of ethnicity between 2004 and 2019. Turkey is a multiethnic republic that used assimilation as the key policy in its early days to create the nation-state. The Kurds, as the most populous ethnic minority, had suffered the most. The ethnic anti-minority regime was reflected in the discourse of state officials. The ethnicity regime changed only after the Justice and Development Party came to power. The state authorities acknowledged Kurds as a distinct ethnic minority, admitted the previous human rights violations, and tried to make up for past mistakes. The article reviews the evolution of the ethnicity regime through analysis of its official discourse from initially being anti-minority and through tumultuous changes to the current inclusive one. It focuses on analyzing President Erdogan's public speeches in Diyarbakir. The main finding of the article is that when the state moved away from anti-minority policies towards the Kurds, President's discourse became more inclusive. Previous studies acknowledged the agency of the state as the determining power behind changing the regime of ethnicity. The second significant contribution of this study is that organized minority groups have an independent agency; their actions significantly contributed to changing the regime of ethnicity.
{"title":"President Erdogan’s Discourse on the Kurdish Issue","authors":"Ayşe İrem Aycan Özer","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-201-218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-201-218","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes Turkey's changing regime of ethnicity between 2004 and 2019. Turkey is a multiethnic republic that used assimilation as the key policy in its early days to create the nation-state. The Kurds, as the most populous ethnic minority, had suffered the most. The ethnic anti-minority regime was reflected in the discourse of state officials. The ethnicity regime changed only after the Justice and Development Party came to power. The state authorities acknowledged Kurds as a distinct ethnic minority, admitted the previous human rights violations, and tried to make up for past mistakes. The article reviews the evolution of the ethnicity regime through analysis of its official discourse from initially being anti-minority and through tumultuous changes to the current inclusive one. It focuses on analyzing President Erdogan's public speeches in Diyarbakir. The main finding of the article is that when the state moved away from anti-minority policies towards the Kurds, President's discourse became more inclusive. Previous studies acknowledged the agency of the state as the determining power behind changing the regime of ethnicity. The second significant contribution of this study is that organized minority groups have an independent agency; their actions significantly contributed to changing the regime of ethnicity.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73199950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-09DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-219-243
M. I. Riabova
Exacerbating climatic change accelerates the formation of ESG national regulatory approaches and the development of non-financial reporting, stimulating new green financing mechanisms both abroad and in Russia. Russian oil and gas companies, particularly Lukoil, Rosneft, and Tatneft, demonstrate the strengthening of environmental and social components in their reports, administration restructures, and improved corporate regulatory documentation concerning the principles of sustainable development. Due to the national features of regulatory and market approaches, European companies are more ambitious regarding the pace of their energy transition and updating the climatic agenda at all operating levels.The article compares the strategies of European energy companies (Shell, Eni, Totlenergies) and Russian energy companies (Lukoil, Rosneft, and Tatneft) in sustainable development and energy transition. The case selection is based on positive financial indicators and companies’ progress in sustainability rankings, such as ACRA, WFF Russia, CDP, and TPI. In conclusion, the article identifies the following priority corporate strategies: digitalization as a way of reducing emissions; an increase in the share of the gas business; development of renewable energy sources; optimization of the internal structure; adding ESG indicators to the leadership’s KPI; adding ESG indicators to requirements for contractors.
{"title":"Strategies of the Russian Oil and Gas Companies at the Era of Energy Transition","authors":"M. I. Riabova","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-219-243","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-219-243","url":null,"abstract":"Exacerbating climatic change accelerates the formation of ESG national regulatory approaches and the development of non-financial reporting, stimulating new green financing mechanisms both abroad and in Russia. Russian oil and gas companies, particularly Lukoil, Rosneft, and Tatneft, demonstrate the strengthening of environmental and social components in their reports, administration restructures, and improved corporate regulatory documentation concerning the principles of sustainable development. Due to the national features of regulatory and market approaches, European companies are more ambitious regarding the pace of their energy transition and updating the climatic agenda at all operating levels.The article compares the strategies of European energy companies (Shell, Eni, Totlenergies) and Russian energy companies (Lukoil, Rosneft, and Tatneft) in sustainable development and energy transition. The case selection is based on positive financial indicators and companies’ progress in sustainability rankings, such as ACRA, WFF Russia, CDP, and TPI. In conclusion, the article identifies the following priority corporate strategies: digitalization as a way of reducing emissions; an increase in the share of the gas business; development of renewable energy sources; optimization of the internal structure; adding ESG indicators to the leadership’s KPI; adding ESG indicators to requirements for contractors.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80625866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-09DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-130-152
D. Sadakov
The article studies the history of the US foreign policy adaptation to détente that started in the late 1960s. By this time the Americans had strong military and political positions on the Korean peninsula. Washington managed to thwart DPRK attempts in 1966–1969 to destabilize the situation in the South. Americans saw growing inter-Korean contacts as a new challenge. With détente gaining momentum, this led to the obsolescence of some American foreign policy instruments in the region, including the US-controlled UN Commission on the Unification and Rebuilding of Korea. Another challenge for the Americans was the North Koreans' «diplomatic offensive,» which strengthened North Korea's position in the world. It tried to use the accumulated political weight to turn the annual debate on the Korean issue in the UN General Assembly from a formality to something real. At the same time, the military threat posed by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, for example, in the 1973–1975 conflict along the Northern Boundary Line, remained relevant.Nevertheless, in 1968–1973 the Americans succeeded in reshaping their policy toward Korea under conditions of a dramatic improvement in the international situation of the DPRK and settlement of US-Chinese relations. The Americans managed to eliminate the obsolete UN Commission on the Unification and Restoration of Korea with minimal losses. They ensured that the discussion of the Korean question in the United Nations would not have a destructive influence on the internal political life of the South. Under these conditions, the inter-Korean dialogue remained merely a political game of the regimes on the peninsula. Preserving the status quo in the region was the main result of US diplomacy’s manipulative techniques. Such approaches are still relevant for the modern US foreign policy – getting rid of international instruments, which have exhausted their purpose.
{"title":"Adapting to Détente: US Policy on Korean Unification in 1968-1973","authors":"D. Sadakov","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-130-152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-130-152","url":null,"abstract":"The article studies the history of the US foreign policy adaptation to détente that started in the late 1960s. By this time the Americans had strong military and political positions on the Korean peninsula. Washington managed to thwart DPRK attempts in 1966–1969 to destabilize the situation in the South. Americans saw growing inter-Korean contacts as a new challenge. With détente gaining momentum, this led to the obsolescence of some American foreign policy instruments in the region, including the US-controlled UN Commission on the Unification and Rebuilding of Korea. Another challenge for the Americans was the North Koreans' «diplomatic offensive,» which strengthened North Korea's position in the world. It tried to use the accumulated political weight to turn the annual debate on the Korean issue in the UN General Assembly from a formality to something real. At the same time, the military threat posed by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, for example, in the 1973–1975 conflict along the Northern Boundary Line, remained relevant.Nevertheless, in 1968–1973 the Americans succeeded in reshaping their policy toward Korea under conditions of a dramatic improvement in the international situation of the DPRK and settlement of US-Chinese relations. The Americans managed to eliminate the obsolete UN Commission on the Unification and Restoration of Korea with minimal losses. They ensured that the discussion of the Korean question in the United Nations would not have a destructive influence on the internal political life of the South. Under these conditions, the inter-Korean dialogue remained merely a political game of the regimes on the peninsula. Preserving the status quo in the region was the main result of US diplomacy’s manipulative techniques. Such approaches are still relevant for the modern US foreign policy – getting rid of international instruments, which have exhausted their purpose.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87142045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The History of the Expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance in the 1990s as an Open-Ended-Story","authors":"","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-244-252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-244-252","url":null,"abstract":"Book review: Sarotte M.E. 2021. Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate. Yale University Press. 550 p.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80713563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-09DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-153-176
A. Timofeev
The article analyzes the attitude of Yugoslav military analysts to the deployment of the Soviet troops in Afghanistan in 1979–1981. Afghanistan was not among diplomatic, or military priorities for Yugoslavia. After the coup in Afghanistan on April 27, 1978, relations between the two countries, previously rather formal, deteriorated, as Kabul started to move away from the non-alignment movement taking a pro-Soviet orientation. Yugoslavia saw Afghanistan as a non-aligned country and was extremely concerned about the Soviet interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. This political assessment heavily influenced the views of Yugoslav military expert, resulting into some distorted conclusions and numerous overlooked lessons. This testifies to the primacy of everyday political (and even propaganda) needs over military science in Yugoslavia. They believed that Afghanistan would turn into a permanent problem for the USSR. Despite the rich empirical material, Yugoslav analysts did not see any novelty in tactics and the use of new weapons in mountainous areas. They neglected to analyze the tactics of anti-partisan actions in the highlands; their predictions were not original; they ignored the presence of militant fundamentalism as a factor in the conduct of hostilities.
{"title":"Lessons Learned by Yugoslav Military Experts from the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan 1979-1981","authors":"A. Timofeev","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-153-176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-153-176","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the attitude of Yugoslav military analysts to the deployment of the Soviet troops in Afghanistan in 1979–1981. Afghanistan was not among diplomatic, or military priorities for Yugoslavia. After the coup in Afghanistan on April 27, 1978, relations between the two countries, previously rather formal, deteriorated, as Kabul started to move away from the non-alignment movement taking a pro-Soviet orientation. Yugoslavia saw Afghanistan as a non-aligned country and was extremely concerned about the Soviet interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. This political assessment heavily influenced the views of Yugoslav military expert, resulting into some distorted conclusions and numerous overlooked lessons. This testifies to the primacy of everyday political (and even propaganda) needs over military science in Yugoslavia. They believed that Afghanistan would turn into a permanent problem for the USSR. Despite the rich empirical material, Yugoslav analysts did not see any novelty in tactics and the use of new weapons in mountainous areas. They neglected to analyze the tactics of anti-partisan actions in the highlands; their predictions were not original; they ignored the presence of militant fundamentalism as a factor in the conduct of hostilities.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88520252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-09DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-177-200
The article studies the rise of the Sunni Awakening (or Sahwa) movement as an example of how different groups can be mobilized for collective action and disintegrated by internal and external factors. It also examines the motives of the Sunni tribal leaders to oppose the AQI and the factors that had a decisive influence on the disintegration of the Awakening movement. The emergence of the Iraqi Sunni Awakening was associated not so much with a sense of ideological, patriotic, or religious obligation but with the loss of economic power of the tribal leaders who decided to mobilize against the AQI.Since 2006, the Sunni Awakening has been a key component of the US strategy to combat jihadi groups. The growth of the movement's activity led to a weakening of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and a significant decrease in the intensity of interfaith conflict in the country. After the official transfer of control of the Awakening to the Iraqi government, the relationship of the Sunni tribes with official Baghdad deteriorated, as Prime Minister Al-Maliki pursued a systematic policy of marginalizing and eliminating the Awakening. The disintegration of the Awakening was strongly influenced by two US decisions that were of strategic importance to Iraq: (a) support for al-Maliki following his defeat in the 2010 parliamentary elections, won by the secular Sunni-Shiite coalition; (b) poor timing of the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, as by the end of 2011, the Iraqi security forces were still not ready to ensure the country's security. As a result, in 2012, numerous supporters of the Sahwa began to participate in anti-government revolts, and thousands of fighters from the movement joined ISIL.
{"title":"The Rise and Fall of the Iraqi Sunni Awakening Movement","authors":"","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-177-200","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2023-1-88-177-200","url":null,"abstract":"The article studies the rise of the Sunni Awakening (or Sahwa) movement as an example of how different groups can be mobilized for collective action and disintegrated by internal and external factors. It also examines the motives of the Sunni tribal leaders to oppose the AQI and the factors that had a decisive influence on the disintegration of the Awakening movement. The emergence of the Iraqi Sunni Awakening was associated not so much with a sense of ideological, patriotic, or religious obligation but with the loss of economic power of the tribal leaders who decided to mobilize against the AQI.Since 2006, the Sunni Awakening has been a key component of the US strategy to combat jihadi groups. The growth of the movement's activity led to a weakening of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and a significant decrease in the intensity of interfaith conflict in the country. After the official transfer of control of the Awakening to the Iraqi government, the relationship of the Sunni tribes with official Baghdad deteriorated, as Prime Minister Al-Maliki pursued a systematic policy of marginalizing and eliminating the Awakening. The disintegration of the Awakening was strongly influenced by two US decisions that were of strategic importance to Iraq: (a) support for al-Maliki following his defeat in the 2010 parliamentary elections, won by the secular Sunni-Shiite coalition; (b) poor timing of the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, as by the end of 2011, the Iraqi security forces were still not ready to ensure the country's security. As a result, in 2012, numerous supporters of the Sahwa began to participate in anti-government revolts, and thousands of fighters from the movement joined ISIL.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78334880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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