Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2022-6-87-26-35
A. Lebedev
The article analyzes the discrepancy between the declared goals of sanctions against Russia and their practical effects. The author puts forward a hypothesis according to which the real purpose of the anti-Russian sanctions imposed after the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine is not to change the foreign policy of the Russian Federation but to weaken the country as much as possible by causing economic damage to it and destabilizing the domestic political situation. Under these conditions, it is reasonable to consider sanctions as an "economic war," which raises the question of the goals of such a war, the choice of optimal methods for its conduct, and ways to minimize damage to the national economy. The author distinguishes between "defensive" and "offensive" methods of economic warfare. The article argues that a country that has become the object of large-scale sanctions is unable to successfully resist them in the long term, relying solely on "defensive" mechanisms (for example, measures to support the economy). It must resort to "offensive" tools as well, for instance to the embargo for the export of goods that are of key importance for the stability of the economic model of the countries that initiated the sanctions.
{"title":"Anti-Russian Sanctions in Global Economic Warfare","authors":"A. Lebedev","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2022-6-87-26-35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2022-6-87-26-35","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the discrepancy between the declared goals of sanctions against Russia and their practical effects. The author puts forward a hypothesis according to which the real purpose of the anti-Russian sanctions imposed after the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine is not to change the foreign policy of the Russian Federation but to weaken the country as much as possible by causing economic damage to it and destabilizing the domestic political situation. Under these conditions, it is reasonable to consider sanctions as an \"economic war,\" which raises the question of the goals of such a war, the choice of optimal methods for its conduct, and ways to minimize damage to the national economy. The author distinguishes between \"defensive\" and \"offensive\" methods of economic warfare. The article argues that a country that has become the object of large-scale sanctions is unable to successfully resist them in the long term, relying solely on \"defensive\" mechanisms (for example, measures to support the economy). It must resort to \"offensive\" tools as well, for instance to the embargo for the export of goods that are of key importance for the stability of the economic model of the countries that initiated the sanctions.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89358681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2022-6-87-179-193
M. A. Podrezov
The article investigates the modern historical memory in Iran of the Persian campaign of Peter the Great that became the first serious attempt of Russia to conquer a part of its southern neighbor’s territory. The article analyses Iranian historical memory of these events using relevant research publications of Persian-speaking authors, Iranian news agencies, and schoolbooks. It compares the Iranian perceptions of the Peter’s Persian campaign and of other Russo-Iranian conflicts at the beginning of the 19th century. The author concludes that the Iranians do not view Peter’s campaign as a war and distinguish it from other conflicts of the century. This perception can be accounted for by the short life of the results of the campaign; by the quick, peaceful restoration of the status quo; by the lack of an official state of war between Russia and the governments of Tahmasp II and the shahs from the Hotak dynasty and clashes between the armies of the countries. The Iranian media and educational literature do not mention the Persian campaign, even in the few publications and sections devoted directly to Peter I. Historical literature hardly mentions it either. Such “oblivion” of the main event in Peter’s of the first Russian emperor related to Iran does not stem from the degree of attention to his personality in Iran. He appears in the media more often than many other Russian rulers and draws comparatively much attention in the educational and scientific literature even in comparison with other significant historical figures. Iranian historiography perceives Peter the Great as a ruler who defined a new vector of Russo-Iranian interrogation but not as a person who attempted expansion on the territory of Iran. This experience helps to analyze the history of bilateral relations and the factors influencing the Iranian perception of the Russian image.
{"title":"Memory of Persian campaign of Peter the Great in modern Iran","authors":"M. A. Podrezov","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2022-6-87-179-193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2022-6-87-179-193","url":null,"abstract":"The article investigates the modern historical memory in Iran of the Persian campaign of Peter the Great that became the first serious attempt of Russia to conquer a part of its southern neighbor’s territory. The article analyses Iranian historical memory of these events using relevant research publications of Persian-speaking authors, Iranian news agencies, and schoolbooks. It compares the Iranian perceptions of the Peter’s Persian campaign and of other Russo-Iranian conflicts at the beginning of the 19th century. The author concludes that the Iranians do not view Peter’s campaign as a war and distinguish it from other conflicts of the century. This perception can be accounted for by the short life of the results of the campaign; by the quick, peaceful restoration of the status quo; by the lack of an official state of war between Russia and the governments of Tahmasp II and the shahs from the Hotak dynasty and clashes between the armies of the countries. The Iranian media and educational literature do not mention the Persian campaign, even in the few publications and sections devoted directly to Peter I. Historical literature hardly mentions it either. Such “oblivion” of the main event in Peter’s of the first Russian emperor related to Iran does not stem from the degree of attention to his personality in Iran. He appears in the media more often than many other Russian rulers and draws comparatively much attention in the educational and scientific literature even in comparison with other significant historical figures. Iranian historiography perceives Peter the Great as a ruler who defined a new vector of Russo-Iranian interrogation but not as a person who attempted expansion on the territory of Iran. This experience helps to analyze the history of bilateral relations and the factors influencing the Iranian perception of the Russian image.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89395619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2022-6-87-86-111
F. Arzhaev, V. Y. Andriukhin, D. V. Saprynskaya
Poverty is one of the most controversial issues in the academic discourse. The numerous theories and their different interpretations make theoretical approaches to poverty applicable to achieve different goals but not the one of its eradication. The politization of the problem and the motivation of political actors to harness the issue of poverty result in significant restrictions for objective assessment of the situation. Central Asia has been facing the problem of poverty for a long time, but this issue remains unresolved. The state of affairs differs a lot from one state to another in the region, however all of them are exposed to high risks since poverty in Central Asia has acquired the character of a systemic phenomenon. The abovementioned theses determine adaptation of the existing academic findings to regional specifics. The article hypothesizes that in Central Asian countries the factors of poverty persistence are linked to each other in vicious circles, the rupture of which is possible through systemic solutions in three public spheres – education, labor market and development institutions. To verify this hypothesis, the nature of poverty is put under test for consistency, the key characteristics of the problem for each of the Central Asian countries are highlighted. The major factors, contributing to the preservation of poverty are analyzed; the most important of them are revealed and logically connected to the three public spheres mentioned. The latter proves to be the most significant for the regional approach to poverty issues. The combination of statistical data, the poor quality of which represent a major limitation of the study, and the results of empirical conclusions has made it possible to identify the existence of two related “vicious circles” of poverty in the region – a vicious circle of factors of poverty persistence and a vicious circle of poverty and its consequences. Based on the data obtained through econometric modeling, a number of recommendations aimed at further reducing the severity of the problem in the Central Asian states have been developed. The proposed recommendations are formed considering the complexity and unrealizability of complex and simultaneous solutions to the problem of poverty and are designed to launch a mechanism for assessing the situation and its initial resolution.
{"title":"Systemic Poverty Modelling: Case of Central Asia","authors":"F. Arzhaev, V. Y. Andriukhin, D. V. Saprynskaya","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2022-6-87-86-111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2022-6-87-86-111","url":null,"abstract":"Poverty is one of the most controversial issues in the academic discourse. The numerous theories and their different interpretations make theoretical approaches to poverty applicable to achieve different goals but not the one of its eradication. The politization of the problem and the motivation of political actors to harness the issue of poverty result in significant restrictions for objective assessment of the situation. Central Asia has been facing the problem of poverty for a long time, but this issue remains unresolved. The state of affairs differs a lot from one state to another in the region, however all of them are exposed to high risks since poverty in Central Asia has acquired the character of a systemic phenomenon. The abovementioned theses determine adaptation of the existing academic findings to regional specifics. The article hypothesizes that in Central Asian countries the factors of poverty persistence are linked to each other in vicious circles, the rupture of which is possible through systemic solutions in three public spheres – education, labor market and development institutions. To verify this hypothesis, the nature of poverty is put under test for consistency, the key characteristics of the problem for each of the Central Asian countries are highlighted. The major factors, contributing to the preservation of poverty are analyzed; the most important of them are revealed and logically connected to the three public spheres mentioned. The latter proves to be the most significant for the regional approach to poverty issues. The combination of statistical data, the poor quality of which represent a major limitation of the study, and the results of empirical conclusions has made it possible to identify the existence of two related “vicious circles” of poverty in the region – a vicious circle of factors of poverty persistence and a vicious circle of poverty and its consequences. Based on the data obtained through econometric modeling, a number of recommendations aimed at further reducing the severity of the problem in the Central Asian states have been developed. The proposed recommendations are formed considering the complexity and unrealizability of complex and simultaneous solutions to the problem of poverty and are designed to launch a mechanism for assessing the situation and its initial resolution.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79942080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper discusses how the democratization process that took place for the first time in Egypt, which was marked by the election of President Mohammad Morsi and the victory of Islamic groups' votes in parliament through this general election, did not run smoothly. The military, which has long been in an important position in Egypt, is not standing still. The democratic process in Egypt was marred by the coup carried out by the military group against the Morsi government on July 3, 2013. Through an analysis based on pretorian theory and the concept of military intervention in politics, this paper shows the dominance of the military as a very dominant actor in Egypt. Pretorian theory, in particular, emphasizes the dominant role of the military in all important political institutions, including political leaders. The military, which was previously allied with the Muslim Brotherhood and supported the Egyptian revolution that resulted in the ouster of President Mubarak, turned into opponents when IM won a majority in the Egyptian parliamentary elections. The military saw that the voice of Islamic groups was no longer in line with its interests, so the 2013 coup against Muhammad Morsi took place.
{"title":"DOMINASI MILITER DALAM POLITIK DAN PEMERINTAHAN DI MESIR: KEGAGALAN DEMOKRATISASI DI MESIR PADA KUDETA 2013","authors":"Afini Nurdina Utami, Syaiful Anam","doi":"10.24252/rir.v4i2.29249","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24252/rir.v4i2.29249","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses how the democratization process that took place for the first time in Egypt, which was marked by the election of President Mohammad Morsi and the victory of Islamic groups' votes in parliament through this general election, did not run smoothly. The military, which has long been in an important position in Egypt, is not standing still. The democratic process in Egypt was marred by the coup carried out by the military group against the Morsi government on July 3, 2013. Through an analysis based on pretorian theory and the concept of military intervention in politics, this paper shows the dominance of the military as a very dominant actor in Egypt. Pretorian theory, in particular, emphasizes the dominant role of the military in all important political institutions, including political leaders. The military, which was previously allied with the Muslim Brotherhood and supported the Egyptian revolution that resulted in the ouster of President Mubarak, turned into opponents when IM won a majority in the Egyptian parliamentary elections. The military saw that the voice of Islamic groups was no longer in line with its interests, so the 2013 coup against Muhammad Morsi took place.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85088765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Penelitian ini berfokus pada kemitraan antara Global Fund dan Indonesia. Untuk itu, tulisan ini menjawab pertanyaan mengenai bentuk dan model kemitraan yang dilakukan antara Global Fund dan Indonesia ddalam mengatasi penyakit menular Tuberkulosis. Penelitian ini menggunakan kerangka konseptual kesehatan keamanan global dan keamanan manusia untuk melihat kemitraan yang terjalin antara GF dan Indonesia tersebut yang telah berlangsung sejak 2003. Adapun penelitian ini berfokus kepada keberadaan tiga aspek penting dalam implementasi kemitraan kesehatan keamanan global yang mencakup: Aspek normatif, aspek institusional dan aspek praktis mengenai bagaimana implementasi dari kebijakan kesehatan keamanan global tersebut dapat diwujudkan. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa ketiga aspek tersebut terpenuhi dan menjadi kunci keberhasilan kemitraan yang hingga kini masih terjalin antara GF, pemerintah pusat dan pemerintah lokal serta lembaga masyarakat melalui program didanai melalui siklus tiga tahunan dan dikerjakan dalam jangka panjang (round). Untuk itu tiga aspek tersebut harus terus didorong dan dievaluasi agar kebermanfaatannya menjadi lebih luas.
{"title":"KEMITRAAN INDONESIA DAN GLOBAL FUND DALAM MENGATASI PENYAKIT TBC DI INDONESIA","authors":"Farahdiba Rahma Bachtiar","doi":"10.24252/rir.v4i2.32594","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24252/rir.v4i2.32594","url":null,"abstract":"Penelitian ini berfokus pada kemitraan antara Global Fund dan Indonesia. Untuk itu, tulisan ini menjawab pertanyaan mengenai bentuk dan model kemitraan yang dilakukan antara Global Fund dan Indonesia ddalam mengatasi penyakit menular Tuberkulosis. Penelitian ini menggunakan kerangka konseptual kesehatan keamanan global dan keamanan manusia untuk melihat kemitraan yang terjalin antara GF dan Indonesia tersebut yang telah berlangsung sejak 2003. Adapun penelitian ini berfokus kepada keberadaan tiga aspek penting dalam implementasi kemitraan kesehatan keamanan global yang mencakup: Aspek normatif, aspek institusional dan aspek praktis mengenai bagaimana implementasi dari kebijakan kesehatan keamanan global tersebut dapat diwujudkan. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa ketiga aspek tersebut terpenuhi dan menjadi kunci keberhasilan kemitraan yang hingga kini masih terjalin antara GF, pemerintah pusat dan pemerintah lokal serta lembaga masyarakat melalui program didanai melalui siklus tiga tahunan dan dikerjakan dalam jangka panjang (round). Untuk itu tiga aspek tersebut harus terus didorong dan dievaluasi agar kebermanfaatannya menjadi lebih luas. \u0000 ","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85170520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-22DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2022-olf5
E. Zinovieva
The fragmentation of the Internet, which has replaced information globalization, is becoming a new reality. Digital technologies and the Internet are becoming a field of new geopolitical contradictions and a struggle for leadership between the great powers. Cyber diplomacy, which includes a range of issues of using ICT to achieve the foreign policy goals of the state, as well as new problematic and subject areas of international relations arising in connection with digitalization, is the most important tool for interstate competition and conflicts, as well as a means of conducting information wars.At the international level, there are no internationally recognized norms governing the development and use of digital tools in the framework of foreign policy, interstate competition or confrontation. It becomes especially important to develop rules for the responsible behavior of states in the global information space. Methodologically, the article is based on the theory of the life cycle of norms. According to this approach, norms are social standards that regulate the behavior of states in a certain area of international relations. At present, there has been a rejection of the norms of the global Internet, which has been promoted by the United States for a long time, free from state borders. A set of norms has been formed in the field of responsible behavior of states in the ICT environment, enshrined in the documents of the UN, regional organizations and other international forums. However, the directions of their development and practical application remain the subject of interstate discussions, in view of the high significance of this problem and the differences in the interests and approaches of states.
{"title":"Cyber Diplomacy under Increased Competition Between the Great Powers","authors":"E. Zinovieva","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2022-olf5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2022-olf5","url":null,"abstract":"The fragmentation of the Internet, which has replaced information globalization, is becoming a new reality. Digital technologies and the Internet are becoming a field of new geopolitical contradictions and a struggle for leadership between the great powers. Cyber diplomacy, which includes a range of issues of using ICT to achieve the foreign policy goals of the state, as well as new problematic and subject areas of international relations arising in connection with digitalization, is the most important tool for interstate competition and conflicts, as well as a means of conducting information wars.At the international level, there are no internationally recognized norms governing the development and use of digital tools in the framework of foreign policy, interstate competition or confrontation. It becomes especially important to develop rules for the responsible behavior of states in the global information space. Methodologically, the article is based on the theory of the life cycle of norms. According to this approach, norms are social standards that regulate the behavior of states in a certain area of international relations. At present, there has been a rejection of the norms of the global Internet, which has been promoted by the United States for a long time, free from state borders. A set of norms has been formed in the field of responsible behavior of states in the ICT environment, enshrined in the documents of the UN, regional organizations and other international forums. However, the directions of their development and practical application remain the subject of interstate discussions, in view of the high significance of this problem and the differences in the interests and approaches of states.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77481125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-22DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2022-olf6
S. V. Shitkov, T. Polyakova, A. A. Smirnov
The article examines burning issues of the formation of an international regime in the field of ensuring international information security in the context of geopolitical transformations and turbulence. The theory of international regimes developed by Russian and foreign researchers is used as a theoretical and methodological basis for the study.Based on the classical definition of the international regime, the authors focus on the norms and principles in the field of international information security. The norms and principles in the field of international information security as the rules of responsible behavior in the global information space were first proposed by Russia and its SCO partners in 2011 as part of a discussion of the UN General Assembly. However, Russian initiatives met with resistance from the United States, resulting in a fragmentation of the existing regulatory regime in the field of international information security. Currently, the relevant norms and principles, which are based on the fundamental principles of international law, enshrined in the UN Charter, are presented in the resolutions of the UN General Assembly, and are also enshrined in the reports of the Group of Governmental Experts on achievements in the field of informatization and telecommunications in the context of international security.The norms fixed in the documents are not mandatory, but they make an important contribution to ensuring international stability by structuring the expectations of various actors in the field of information security. However, the lack of formal consolidation and institutionalization of these norms within the framework of international treaties reduces their legitimacy.
{"title":"Emerging international regime of information security","authors":"S. V. Shitkov, T. Polyakova, A. A. Smirnov","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2022-olf6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2022-olf6","url":null,"abstract":"The article examines burning issues of the formation of an international regime in the field of ensuring international information security in the context of geopolitical transformations and turbulence. The theory of international regimes developed by Russian and foreign researchers is used as a theoretical and methodological basis for the study.Based on the classical definition of the international regime, the authors focus on the norms and principles in the field of international information security. The norms and principles in the field of international information security as the rules of responsible behavior in the global information space were first proposed by Russia and its SCO partners in 2011 as part of a discussion of the UN General Assembly. However, Russian initiatives met with resistance from the United States, resulting in a fragmentation of the existing regulatory regime in the field of international information security. Currently, the relevant norms and principles, which are based on the fundamental principles of international law, enshrined in the UN Charter, are presented in the resolutions of the UN General Assembly, and are also enshrined in the reports of the Group of Governmental Experts on achievements in the field of informatization and telecommunications in the context of international security.The norms fixed in the documents are not mandatory, but they make an important contribution to ensuring international stability by structuring the expectations of various actors in the field of information security. However, the lack of formal consolidation and institutionalization of these norms within the framework of international treaties reduces their legitimacy.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":"93 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72434792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-13DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2022-olf4
I. Istomin
Academic literature is largely skeptical regarding the role of military deterrence in addressing low-level coercion. The stability-instability paradox suggests that increasing destructiveness of the armed forces (especially with the emergence of nuclear weapons) diminishes their utility in response to limited wars, proxy conflicts or economic sanctions. Recent debates often extend the same logic to foreign interference in internal affairs, as they position it as a supplement for forcible rivalries. This article seeks to advance understanding of the linkage between military deterrence and foreign interference in internal politics by exploring the record of the early Cold War starting from 1948 to the mid-1950s. The analysis attests that concern over the Soviet military capabilities had a major restraining effect on Washington. As a result, the US pursued more cautious activities against the Soviet Union in comparison to the campaigns targeting less capable states. This historical record reveals that interference is more amenable to military deterrence than other types of low-level coercion. It differs from them, as covert operations produce an existential danger to the political leaders of a target state, inciting overreaction on their behalf. Therefore, they create escalation risks when threatening a great power. Interference exacerbates confrontation even between adversaries that perceived each other as malign beforehand. Apart from signaling hostile intentions, it aggravates a sense of urgency on finding a response. Although military capabilities do not provide a direct solution to political threats, they serve as a repellent against potential subversive activities. These conclusions do not depend on the specific type of interference pursued by external agents. The findings of the article demonstrate that cross-domain deterrence is more prevalent than stability-instability paradox envisages.
{"title":"Military Deterrence vs Foreign Interference? Record of the Cold War","authors":"I. Istomin","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2022-olf4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2022-olf4","url":null,"abstract":"Academic literature is largely skeptical regarding the role of military deterrence in addressing low-level coercion. The stability-instability paradox suggests that increasing destructiveness of the armed forces (especially with the emergence of nuclear weapons) diminishes their utility in response to limited wars, proxy conflicts or economic sanctions. Recent debates often extend the same logic to foreign interference in internal affairs, as they position it as a supplement for forcible rivalries. This article seeks to advance understanding of the linkage between military deterrence and foreign interference in internal politics by exploring the record of the early Cold War starting from 1948 to the mid-1950s. The analysis attests that concern over the Soviet military capabilities had a major restraining effect on Washington. As a result, the US pursued more cautious activities against the Soviet Union in comparison to the campaigns targeting less capable states. This historical record reveals that interference is more amenable to military deterrence than other types of low-level coercion. It differs from them, as covert operations produce an existential danger to the political leaders of a target state, inciting overreaction on their behalf. Therefore, they create escalation risks when threatening a great power. Interference exacerbates confrontation even between adversaries that perceived each other as malign beforehand. Apart from signaling hostile intentions, it aggravates a sense of urgency on finding a response. Although military capabilities do not provide a direct solution to political threats, they serve as a repellent against potential subversive activities. These conclusions do not depend on the specific type of interference pursued by external agents. The findings of the article demonstrate that cross-domain deterrence is more prevalent than stability-instability paradox envisages.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76038489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-12DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2022-olf3
Y. I. Uchaev, A. Kvartalnov
The article develops a novel temporal approach to the sustainability of nuclear anarchy. The extant literature offers two opposite perspectives on the topic: some scholars argue that nuclear anarchy is unsustainable, since it will inevitably either lead to a catastrophic nuclear war or evolve into a hierarchical world order. Their opponents doubt the inevitability of nuclear war in a system of sovereign states and/or its catastrophic nature. However, the debate, as it stands now, ignores the fact that both technology and social structures are embedded in – and mediated by – cultures and worldviews. In particular, both nuclear weapons and interstate anarchy are embedded in specific temporalities.Taking this fact into account, we identify and compare perceptions of time that are interrelated with nuclear weapons, on one hand, and international anarchy, on the other. The article reveals a temporal contradiction of nuclear anarchy: while nuclear weapons imply a potential finitude of humanity, the system of sovereign states is intrinsically connected with an indefinite temporality. We derive two theoretical implications form the concept of temporal contradiction. First, a realization of finite temporality should subvert the legitimacy of an anarchic world order and encourage limitations on national sovereignty. Second, international anarchy should ‘eternalize’ nuclear weapons, i.e., reinterpret them as compatible with the eternity of human civilization. Familiar events of nuclear history including the emergence and decline of arms control regimes, the Strategic Defense Initiative, and the evolution of the anti-nuclear movement are interpreted here as empirical evidence in favor of the theoretical implications described above.Thus, the concept of temporal contradiction provides another argument in favor of the idea that nuclear anarchy is unsustainable in the long run, since the proliferation of the finite temporality leads to international hierarchy, whereas persistent indefinite temporality masks the severity of the nuclear threat, making nuclear war more conceivable and probable.
{"title":"Is Nuclear Anarchy Sustainable? A Temporal Approach","authors":"Y. I. Uchaev, A. Kvartalnov","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2022-olf3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2022-olf3","url":null,"abstract":"The article develops a novel temporal approach to the sustainability of nuclear anarchy. The extant literature offers two opposite perspectives on the topic: some scholars argue that nuclear anarchy is unsustainable, since it will inevitably either lead to a catastrophic nuclear war or evolve into a hierarchical world order. Their opponents doubt the inevitability of nuclear war in a system of sovereign states and/or its catastrophic nature. However, the debate, as it stands now, ignores the fact that both technology and social structures are embedded in – and mediated by – cultures and worldviews. In particular, both nuclear weapons and interstate anarchy are embedded in specific temporalities.Taking this fact into account, we identify and compare perceptions of time that are interrelated with nuclear weapons, on one hand, and international anarchy, on the other. The article reveals a temporal contradiction of nuclear anarchy: while nuclear weapons imply a potential finitude of humanity, the system of sovereign states is intrinsically connected with an indefinite temporality. We derive two theoretical implications form the concept of temporal contradiction. First, a realization of finite temporality should subvert the legitimacy of an anarchic world order and encourage limitations on national sovereignty. Second, international anarchy should ‘eternalize’ nuclear weapons, i.e., reinterpret them as compatible with the eternity of human civilization. Familiar events of nuclear history including the emergence and decline of arms control regimes, the Strategic Defense Initiative, and the evolution of the anti-nuclear movement are interpreted here as empirical evidence in favor of the theoretical implications described above.Thus, the concept of temporal contradiction provides another argument in favor of the idea that nuclear anarchy is unsustainable in the long run, since the proliferation of the finite temporality leads to international hierarchy, whereas persistent indefinite temporality masks the severity of the nuclear threat, making nuclear war more conceivable and probable.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83026941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-09DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2022-5-86-150-181
V. A. Shchipkov
The article traces the institutional and political evolution of the US implementing its concept of international religious freedom from 1998 to 2020. The concept became popular after the end of the Cold War when the defense of religion against socialistatheist ideas had lost its relevance due to political (the collapse of the Eastern bloc) and cultural (the growing importance of religion in many non-Western countries of the world) reasons. The article starts by reviewing the history of the emergence and development of the institutional infrastructure (legal acts, administrative entities, public and political organizations, think tanks, expert platforms, interdepartmental coordination formats, human rights projects, funding and grant programs, and new international organizations) that supported the US foreign policy advancing international religious freedom. The article divides the reconstruction of this process into two periods formed by adopting two acts: in 1998 — the International Religious Freedom Act, and in 2016 — the amendment to this Act named after congressman Frank Wolf. The study concludes that over the past twenty years, religion has finally developed as an independent track of the US foreign policy, although it has been developing inconsistently and has undergone repeated corrections. The concept of international religious freedom has become the ideational basis of this track, while the extensive institutional and political infrastructure serves as its apparatus. More than 80 percent of the world's population encounters religious persecution. It legitimizes the concept, which encourages widespread support for religious minorities as opposed to the religious majority, and opens the way for the US to build sustainable ties with religious communities and their leaders worldwide, allowing them to influence political processes in different regions. The US has recently promoted the integration of this policy track into international institutions, establishing the International Religious Freedom or Belief Alliance.
{"title":"Political and Institutional Approaches to Advancing International Religious Freedom in the U.S. Foreign Policy in 1998–2020","authors":"V. A. Shchipkov","doi":"10.24833/2071-8160-2022-5-86-150-181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2022-5-86-150-181","url":null,"abstract":"The article traces the institutional and political evolution of the US implementing its concept of international religious freedom from 1998 to 2020. The concept became popular after the end of the Cold War when the defense of religion against socialistatheist ideas had lost its relevance due to political (the collapse of the Eastern bloc) and cultural (the growing importance of religion in many non-Western countries of the world) reasons. The article starts by reviewing the history of the emergence and development of the institutional infrastructure (legal acts, administrative entities, public and political organizations, think tanks, expert platforms, interdepartmental coordination formats, human rights projects, funding and grant programs, and new international organizations) that supported the US foreign policy advancing international religious freedom. The article divides the reconstruction of this process into two periods formed by adopting two acts: in 1998 — the International Religious Freedom Act, and in 2016 — the amendment to this Act named after congressman Frank Wolf. The study concludes that over the past twenty years, religion has finally developed as an independent track of the US foreign policy, although it has been developing inconsistently and has undergone repeated corrections. The concept of international religious freedom has become the ideational basis of this track, while the extensive institutional and political infrastructure serves as its apparatus. More than 80 percent of the world's population encounters religious persecution. It legitimizes the concept, which encourages widespread support for religious minorities as opposed to the religious majority, and opens the way for the US to build sustainable ties with religious communities and their leaders worldwide, allowing them to influence political processes in different regions. The US has recently promoted the integration of this policy track into international institutions, establishing the International Religious Freedom or Belief Alliance.","PeriodicalId":42127,"journal":{"name":"MGIMO Review of International Relations","volume":"224 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72684561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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