Pub Date : 2020-06-16DOI: 10.1504/ijstl.2020.10029957
Weihua Liu, Cheng Si, X. Peng
This paper studies the effect of M&A announcements on shareholder value of listed companies from Chinese logistics industry. Using event study method, this research examines the market reaction to 181 initial announcements of successful M&As between 2000 and 2016. Some important findings are obtained. Firstly, we find a significantly positive mean market reaction (1.125%) to successful M&As for acquiring firms. Secondly, the market reaction is more positive for firms with a higher level of logistics service integration. The higher the logistics subsector concentration, the higher the abnormal returns. The market reaction to mergers involving the vertical integration of logistics service is more positive than those involving the horizontal integration of logistics service. Finally, the post hoc analysis finds that the market reacts negatively to failed M&As (−1.53%).
{"title":"The effect of mergers and acquisitions announcements on shareholder value of Chinese logistics companies","authors":"Weihua Liu, Cheng Si, X. Peng","doi":"10.1504/ijstl.2020.10029957","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijstl.2020.10029957","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the effect of M&A announcements on shareholder value of listed companies from Chinese logistics industry. Using event study method, this research examines the market reaction to 181 initial announcements of successful M&As between 2000 and 2016. Some important findings are obtained. Firstly, we find a significantly positive mean market reaction (1.125%) to successful M&As for acquiring firms. Secondly, the market reaction is more positive for firms with a higher level of logistics service integration. The higher the logistics subsector concentration, the higher the abnormal returns. The market reaction to mergers involving the vertical integration of logistics service is more positive than those involving the horizontal integration of logistics service. Finally, the post hoc analysis finds that the market reacts negatively to failed M&As (−1.53%).","PeriodicalId":45963,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46951268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-11DOI: 10.1504/ijstl.2020.10029956
S. Huang, K. Shang, C. Su, Ki-Yin Chang, Y. Tzeng
The aim of this paper is to improve the quality of high-speed ferry service between Mainland China and Taiwan. Since 2014, a shipping company in Taiwan has formally served the Taipei-Pingtan route connecting the Cross-Strait passengers and cargo. Compared with air transportation, the high-speed vessel industry is particularly characterised by its relatively cheaper prices and convenience. Tourist passengers are now the main users of high-speed ferry service, and the number of business passengers still has the potential to grow. This research applies quality function deployment (QFD) to transform the voice of passengers to prioritise key technical measures for quality improvement. An empirical study is performed to evaluate the service quality of an anonymous entity in Taiwan. Through completing the house of quality (HoQ), important technical measures such as 'professional crew and staff training in etiquette', 'no. of internal seminars and meetings for customer service', and 'ISO certificate and quality manual' are the main findings to improve the high-speed ferry service quality and its implications are revealed for practitioners, policy-makers and other stakeholders in relation to the high-speed ferry industry.
{"title":"Applying QFD to assess quality of short sea shipping: an empirical study on Cross-Strait high-speed ferry service between Taiwan and Mainland China","authors":"S. Huang, K. Shang, C. Su, Ki-Yin Chang, Y. Tzeng","doi":"10.1504/ijstl.2020.10029956","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijstl.2020.10029956","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to improve the quality of high-speed ferry service between Mainland China and Taiwan. Since 2014, a shipping company in Taiwan has formally served the Taipei-Pingtan route connecting the Cross-Strait passengers and cargo. Compared with air transportation, the high-speed vessel industry is particularly characterised by its relatively cheaper prices and convenience. Tourist passengers are now the main users of high-speed ferry service, and the number of business passengers still has the potential to grow. This research applies quality function deployment (QFD) to transform the voice of passengers to prioritise key technical measures for quality improvement. An empirical study is performed to evaluate the service quality of an anonymous entity in Taiwan. Through completing the house of quality (HoQ), important technical measures such as 'professional crew and staff training in etiquette', 'no. of internal seminars and meetings for customer service', and 'ISO certificate and quality manual' are the main findings to improve the high-speed ferry service quality and its implications are revealed for practitioners, policy-makers and other stakeholders in relation to the high-speed ferry industry.","PeriodicalId":45963,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49392373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-11DOI: 10.1504/ijstl.2020.10024517
S. Baştuğ, Gamze Arabelen, Ceren Altuntas Vural, D. Deveci
The main aim of this study is to reveal the role and contribution of Industry 4.0 in the value chain of seaports. It first reviews the literature to identify value chain activities in the port industry. It then explores the Industry 4.0 applications utilised by ports through content analysis of the websites of ten major innovative seaports. Seven main technological characteristics of Industry 4.0, namely digitalisation, autonomisation, transparency, mobility, modularisation, network-collaboration and socialising, are used as the main research main categories. The findings show that ports engage with Industry 4.0 in four different modules namely port community systems, cyber-physical systems, internet of things and big data. These four modules enable ports to achieve cost leadership advantages in their quest for competitiveness. To achieve differentiation, on the other hand, they need to increase connectivity with customers and stakeholders through communication channels such as social media.
{"title":"A Value Chain Analysis of a Seaport from the Perspective of Industry 4.0","authors":"S. Baştuğ, Gamze Arabelen, Ceren Altuntas Vural, D. Deveci","doi":"10.1504/ijstl.2020.10024517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijstl.2020.10024517","url":null,"abstract":"The main aim of this study is to reveal the role and contribution of Industry 4.0 in the value chain of seaports. It first reviews the literature to identify value chain activities in the port industry. It then explores the Industry 4.0 applications utilised by ports through content analysis of the websites of ten major innovative seaports. Seven main technological characteristics of Industry 4.0, namely digitalisation, autonomisation, transparency, mobility, modularisation, network-collaboration and socialising, are used as the main research main categories. The findings show that ports engage with Industry 4.0 in four different modules namely port community systems, cyber-physical systems, internet of things and big data. These four modules enable ports to achieve cost leadership advantages in their quest for competitiveness. To achieve differentiation, on the other hand, they need to increase connectivity with customers and stakeholders through communication channels such as social media.","PeriodicalId":45963,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42168193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-11DOI: 10.1504/IJSTL.2020.10023269
B. Gena, Daryanto Arief, Kusumastanto Tridoyo, Zulbainarni Nimmi
Several previous studies have discussed the strategy of increasing the competitive advantage of the container shipping industry in a country level. However, it tends to use fragmented strategy approach. This research proposes its novelty using the MBV paradigm and encourages the implementation of a more comprehensive strategy at the national level, industry and corporate level by making SSCM a mediating factor in enhancing the competitive advantage of the industry. This research collected responds from 100 higher management level of business user and actors of Indonesia container shipping industry. This research applies mixed methodology that using structural equation model partial leased square SEM-PLS and qualitative approach through in-depth interview and FGD. This research concludes that, there is three focuses of strategy to develop competitive advantages of container shipping industry in Indonesia: ensuring demand sustainability, increase sustainable supply chain performance and government support through regulation.
{"title":"Competitive advantage improvement strategy of container shipping industry: case of Indonesia","authors":"B. Gena, Daryanto Arief, Kusumastanto Tridoyo, Zulbainarni Nimmi","doi":"10.1504/IJSTL.2020.10023269","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSTL.2020.10023269","url":null,"abstract":"Several previous studies have discussed the strategy of increasing the competitive advantage of the container shipping industry in a country level. However, it tends to use fragmented strategy approach. This research proposes its novelty using the MBV paradigm and encourages the implementation of a more comprehensive strategy at the national level, industry and corporate level by making SSCM a mediating factor in enhancing the competitive advantage of the industry. This research collected responds from 100 higher management level of business user and actors of Indonesia container shipping industry. This research applies mixed methodology that using structural equation model partial leased square SEM-PLS and qualitative approach through in-depth interview and FGD. This research concludes that, there is three focuses of strategy to develop competitive advantages of container shipping industry in Indonesia: ensuring demand sustainability, increase sustainable supply chain performance and government support through regulation.","PeriodicalId":45963,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42227921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-08DOI: 10.1504/ijstl.2020.10028343
K. Suthiwartnarueput, P. Lee, Cheng-Wei Lin, Krisana Visamitanan, Zaili Yang, A. Ng
This paper investigates the key successful factors in waterfront port development (WPD). Consistent fuzzy preference relation (CFPR), with the combination of the preference ranking organisation methods for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE), is applied to six ports, namely Busan, Incheon Inner Port, Bangkok, Kaohsiung, Montreal and Liverpool. The latter technique evaluates the performance of WPD among the studied cases, while the former draws the key successful factors (KSFs) of the selected ports. To draw meaningful comparison with the test results from past research, this paper takes the same evaluation hierarchy in the questionnaire form in Lee et al. (2016). With a further validity of the previous findings in WPD studies, this paper does not only provide insight on exploring the generalisation of KSFs in WPD in a longitude manner, but also contributes to the literature of WPD and port-city interplays.
本文探讨了滨水港口开发成功的关键因素。以釜山港、仁川内港、曼谷港、高雄港、蒙特娄港、利物浦港为研究对象，结合偏好排序组织法(PROMETHEE)，运用一致性模糊偏好关系(CFPR)。后一种技术在研究案例中评估WPD的性能，而前一种技术则绘制所选端口的关键成功因素(ksf)。为了与以往研究的检验结果进行有意义的比较，本文在Lee et al.(2016)的问卷形式中采用了相同的评价层次。本文进一步验证了以往研究结果的有效性，不仅为探索WPD中ksf的经度泛化提供了见解，而且为WPD和港城相互作用的文献做出了贡献。
{"title":"A trial to generalise evaluation of key driving factors of port-city waterfront development","authors":"K. Suthiwartnarueput, P. Lee, Cheng-Wei Lin, Krisana Visamitanan, Zaili Yang, A. Ng","doi":"10.1504/ijstl.2020.10028343","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijstl.2020.10028343","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the key successful factors in waterfront port development (WPD). Consistent fuzzy preference relation (CFPR), with the combination of the preference ranking organisation methods for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE), is applied to six ports, namely Busan, Incheon Inner Port, Bangkok, Kaohsiung, Montreal and Liverpool. The latter technique evaluates the performance of WPD among the studied cases, while the former draws the key successful factors (KSFs) of the selected ports. To draw meaningful comparison with the test results from past research, this paper takes the same evaluation hierarchy in the questionnaire form in Lee et al. (2016). With a further validity of the previous findings in WPD studies, this paper does not only provide insight on exploring the generalisation of KSFs in WPD in a longitude manner, but also contributes to the literature of WPD and port-city interplays.","PeriodicalId":45963,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48544382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-08DOI: 10.1504/ijstl.2020.10026408
Pengliang Cao, G. Jiang, Seokin Huang, Lingqi Ma
To further decrease turnaround time of container vessels, synchronous scheduling of yard crane (YC) and yard truck (YT) with the impact of quay crane (QC) is mainly considered. On this basis, the interference between YCs, YT pool strategy and other practical constraints, are also taken into consideration. Firstly, this problem formulated as a mixed integer programming model to minimise the makespan of loading operation. Due to the computational intractability, the multi-layers genetic algorithm is introduced to solve the problem with a simulation model, then an improved algorithm and an algorithm accelerating strategy are also designed to further improve the optimising efficiency. Finally, two sets of experiments with over 300 tests are conducted by eight elastic compute services on Alibaba Cloud to validate necessity of considering the impact of QC and the solution quality and effectiveness of the proposed methods.
{"title":"Integrated Simulation and Optimization of Scheduling Yard Crane and Yard Truck in Loading Operation","authors":"Pengliang Cao, G. Jiang, Seokin Huang, Lingqi Ma","doi":"10.1504/ijstl.2020.10026408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijstl.2020.10026408","url":null,"abstract":"To further decrease turnaround time of container vessels, synchronous scheduling of yard crane (YC) and yard truck (YT) with the impact of quay crane (QC) is mainly considered. On this basis, the interference between YCs, YT pool strategy and other practical constraints, are also taken into consideration. Firstly, this problem formulated as a mixed integer programming model to minimise the makespan of loading operation. Due to the computational intractability, the multi-layers genetic algorithm is introduced to solve the problem with a simulation model, then an improved algorithm and an algorithm accelerating strategy are also designed to further improve the optimising efficiency. Finally, two sets of experiments with over 300 tests are conducted by eight elastic compute services on Alibaba Cloud to validate necessity of considering the impact of QC and the solution quality and effectiveness of the proposed methods.","PeriodicalId":45963,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42181580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-08DOI: 10.1504/ijstl.2020.107232
Yifei Zhao, Qinghua Zhu, Ying Kou, Y. Lun
This study quantitatively evaluates the dual operational-environmental performance of the ports in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in China. Factor analysis is first applied to identify the common factors for comprehensively ranking the level of dual operational-environmental performance of each port. Environmental treatment, port conditions and development potential are identified as the common factors. The Port of Shenzhen is found to have the best performance in environmental treatment and development potential, while the Port of Guangzhou has the best fundamental conditions. Cluster analysis is then applied to compare the clusters of ports in the PRD region with and without 'green' elements. It is found that small and medium-sized ports need to respond the call of Chinese Government on provincial-level unified port platform to realise dual operational-environmental performance.
{"title":"Quantitative evaluation of dual operational-environmental port performance in the Pearl River Delta","authors":"Yifei Zhao, Qinghua Zhu, Ying Kou, Y. Lun","doi":"10.1504/ijstl.2020.107232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijstl.2020.107232","url":null,"abstract":"This study quantitatively evaluates the dual operational-environmental performance of the ports in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in China. Factor analysis is first applied to identify the common factors for comprehensively ranking the level of dual operational-environmental performance of each port. Environmental treatment, port conditions and development potential are identified as the common factors. The Port of Shenzhen is found to have the best performance in environmental treatment and development potential, while the Port of Guangzhou has the best fundamental conditions. Cluster analysis is then applied to compare the clusters of ports in the PRD region with and without 'green' elements. It is found that small and medium-sized ports need to respond the call of Chinese Government on provincial-level unified port platform to realise dual operational-environmental performance.","PeriodicalId":45963,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics","volume":"12 1","pages":"212"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/ijstl.2020.107232","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44192902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-08DOI: 10.1504/ijstl.2020.10028344
A. G. Mirantes, J. Población, G. Serna
Freight prices are heterogeneous, and not all the routes have the same liquidity of spot or futures prices; therefore, sometimes there are problems related to one, or more, route hedges. In this paper, we develop a methodology to hedge the price risk of one route using other routes' futures contracts. The main result of this paper is that we can hedge, with a great fit, the price risk of one route using other routes' futures contracts. The hedging results obtained with our methodology outperform those obtained with standard simple regression procedures.
{"title":"Hedging voyage charter rates on illiquid routes","authors":"A. G. Mirantes, J. Población, G. Serna","doi":"10.1504/ijstl.2020.10028344","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijstl.2020.10028344","url":null,"abstract":"Freight prices are heterogeneous, and not all the routes have the same liquidity of spot or futures prices; therefore, sometimes there are problems related to one, or more, route hedges. In this paper, we develop a methodology to hedge the price risk of one route using other routes' futures contracts. The main result of this paper is that we can hedge, with a great fit, the price risk of one route using other routes' futures contracts. The hedging results obtained with our methodology outperform those obtained with standard simple regression procedures.","PeriodicalId":45963,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44207159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-08DOI: 10.1504/ijstl.2020.10028342
Jingjing Tong, H. Nachtmann
To mitigate inland waterway disruption impacts, we develop a tabu search (TS) approach to solve the cargo prioritisation and terminal allocation problem (CPTAP) to minimise the total value loss of disrupted barge cargoes by offloading the cargoes to the land transportation modes. CPTAP is formulated as a nonlinear binary integer program, and problems of realistic size can be efficiently and effectively solved with an efficient heuristic approach. Given different neighbourhood structures, multiple TS variants are attempted and compared. Solving CPTAP with our TS heuristic leads to the lowest cargo value loss and the shortest response time for the disrupted barges compared to a genetic algorithm approach and a na
{"title":"A tabu search approach to the cargo prioritisation and terminal allocation problem","authors":"Jingjing Tong, H. Nachtmann","doi":"10.1504/ijstl.2020.10028342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijstl.2020.10028342","url":null,"abstract":"To mitigate inland waterway disruption impacts, we develop a tabu search (TS) approach to solve the cargo prioritisation and terminal allocation problem (CPTAP) to minimise the total value loss of disrupted barge cargoes by offloading the cargoes to the land transportation modes. CPTAP is formulated as a nonlinear binary integer program, and problems of realistic size can be efficiently and effectively solved with an efficient heuristic approach. Given different neighbourhood structures, multiple TS variants are attempted and compared. Solving CPTAP with our TS heuristic leads to the lowest cargo value loss and the shortest response time for the disrupted barges compared to a genetic algorithm approach and a na","PeriodicalId":45963,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43454208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-20DOI: 10.26411/83-1734-2015-4-44-5-19
D. Bugayko, O. Leshchynskyi, N. Sokolova, Z. Zamiar, V. Isaienko
World civil aviation is an open-source system that is affected by a large number of related and non-related factors. Aviation safety is one of the prioritized directions in the industry. Its managerial decision-making is primarily based on a versatile analysis of security data in which the choice of the appropriate mathematical apparatus is fundamental. This article suggests applying fractal-statistical analysis to evaluate the aviation safety management system in terms of determining the random distribution of quantitative dynamics of aircraft crashes with lethal consequences in the period from 1946 to 2017. This allows us to verify the adequacy of probabilistic approaches appliance in analysing the dynamics of aviation disasters. The results of research carried out on the basis of the Hurst exponent have allowed us to conclude that the dynamics of aviation disasters is characterized by the effect of "spatial memory". In other words, these are "hidden laws" which further investigation can become an effective tool for the development of proactive methods in managing aviation safety.
{"title":"Analysis of the aviation safety management system by fractal and statistical tools","authors":"D. Bugayko, O. Leshchynskyi, N. Sokolova, Z. Zamiar, V. Isaienko","doi":"10.26411/83-1734-2015-4-44-5-19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26411/83-1734-2015-4-44-5-19","url":null,"abstract":"World civil aviation is an open-source system that is affected by a large number of related and non-related factors. Aviation safety is one of the prioritized directions in the industry. Its managerial decision-making is primarily based on a versatile analysis of security data in which the choice of the appropriate mathematical apparatus is fundamental. This article suggests applying fractal-statistical analysis to evaluate the aviation safety management system in terms of determining the random distribution of quantitative dynamics of aircraft crashes with lethal consequences in the period from 1946 to 2017. This allows us to verify the adequacy of probabilistic approaches appliance in analysing the dynamics of aviation disasters. The results of research carried out on the basis of the Hurst exponent have allowed us to conclude that the dynamics of aviation disasters is characterized by the effect of \"spatial memory\". In other words, these are \"hidden laws\" which further investigation can become an effective tool for the development of proactive methods in managing aviation safety.","PeriodicalId":45963,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73906623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：