Middle East Policy最新文献

After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divided in thirds, regional states welcomed President Bashar al-Assad back into the fold in May 2023. The Arab League's decision to reinstate Damascus's membership was the culmination of a slow and fitful process that accelerated when Saudi Arabia took the lead. Still, it is too soon to know whether and how Syrian normalization will evolve beyond its Arab core, especially due to the West's continued sanctions regime. This article analyzes how the evolution of the Syrian crisis, the changing calculus of Arab powers, and American inaction have contributed to Assad's rehabilitation. In conclusion, we consider four areas that will determine the next phase of the normalization process.

Despite countless studies on victory in armed conflict, scholars disagree about the exact meaning of this term. This article, using primary sources in Hebrew and Arabic, aims to define victory and to discern between types of successful outcomes in war. We analyze three case studies of military collision between Israel and Hamas through a model featuring four levels: tactical, operational, strategic, and systemic. The study shows that in all three clashes (2008, 2012, 2014), the outcomes are difficult to evaluate because the boundaries between the definitions are foggy. It also concludes that neither side has achieved a strategic victory that breaks the status quo that has held since June 2007—though Hamas's leaders have claimed strategic victory due to the group's survival. Israel, without advanced planning, has relied on tactical wins for its strategic policy.

The processes that transitioned Sudan from a deeply securitized kleptocracy into a fledgling democracy have generated stressors that are now threatening its collapse. The country's two rival generals—Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudan Armed Forces and Mohammed Hamden Dagalo (nom de guerre Hemedti) of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces—have plunged Sudan into a bloodbath. Khartoum, the capital that had been an island of civility since it was ransacked by Dervishes in 1885, has been engulfed in fierce battles since the two groups turned on each other in April 2023. Unpacking the host of factors that prompted the bloody conflict is a complex task, but the rivals and their allies are the chief culprits. Once created as a means to run counterinsurgency strategy on the cheap, the Rapid Support Forces has expanded its capacity and become a major power center. Originating in Darfur as a plunder machine of the Janjaweed militias, the group outgrew its function and became a private army capable of routing overlords in quick succession. This article traces the roots of the Rapid Support Forces to demonstrate the structural factors threatening Sudan's stability.

The war in Ukraine and the looming threat of climate change are driving the strategic need to diversify sources of energy, including renewables. Therefore, the European Union aims to develop energy relations with non-EU member states, and Morocco has become a key priority. Both Brussels and Rabat are pursuing ambitious green policies and cooperation initiatives, including on hydrogen. Drawing on theories of international institutions and political economy, this article analyzes hydrogen-related relationship patterns and explains demand and supply factors as drivers of institutionalized energy cooperation. We examine the EU's hydrogen approach and development, its relations with Morocco, and the political interests of both sides. Our analysis shows that the complex interdependencies in the evolving EU-Morocco hydrogen relations indicate that demand can be met by supply. However, challenges remain, including the need to deepen the partnership and prepare the market for commercial hydrogen production.

In 2020, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced the development of a new operational concept called Decisive Victory that aimed to change the way Israel fights wars and to redefine victory on the battlefield. The root cause of this change was the evolution in nonstate threats from armed groups in Gaza and Lebanon. The concept was to drive major reforms of the IDF in training, interoperability among the services, weapons procurement, and civil-military relations. However, the efforts encountered significant challenges in terms of politics, financial resources, and the implications for the IDF's force structure. This article examines these developments to shed light on the evolving way of war in the Middle East and the struggle within the IDF to redefine its posture.

Grace O'Sullivan of the Irish Green Party, affiliated with the European Green Party, has been a member of the European Parliament from Ireland for the South constituency since July 2019. In the European Parliament, she is a member of delegations on Palestine and Mercosur. O'Sullivan previously served as a senator in Ireland and was a sponsor of the Control of Economic Activity (Occupied Territories) Bill 2018, which sought to prohibit the import of goods produced in illegal settlements. O'Sullivan, an environmental activist, spent 20 years with Greenpeace and worked on the crew of the Rainbow Warrior in 1985, when it was bombed in New Zealand by French intelligence. She was interviewed by Roger Gaess via email in April and May 2023.