Middle East Policy最新文献

Water resources have evolved into a major tool for expanding a country's regional influence. The dynamic interactions of hydraulics strategies have thus been regarded as critical factors in Middle Eastern politics. As Turkey controls upstream water resources in the region, this study attempts to answer this question: What goals does Turkey pursue with its water-control policy? The article demonstrates that Turkey is seeking to become the dominant power in the Middle East by regulating hydropolitics.

This article analyzes the political transitions in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya after the Arab Spring. While they share similarities regarding the overthrow of their long-lasting regimes, each country followed different trajectories. Early in the process, Tunisia underwent a smooth transformation, while Egypt witnessed intense polarization following the electoral success of the Muslim Brotherhood—and authoritarianism with the military coup two years later. Different from those two, Libya came to the brink of failure with a civil war, and the country still suffers from rampant violence. The article contends that Tunisia's success in the transition toward democracy lies in its relative homogeneity, consensus-building, and civil-military relations. The focus of the article is on the initial transitions. Tunisia's process appears to have stalled, and future study will be required to understand how such states can consolidate their democratic transitions.

Given the perception of a US pullback from its commitments in the Middle East, a small state like Bahrain must develop a new vision of how to protect itself. This article analyzes Bahrain's strategy, focusing on three circles. The first, its internal circle, is complicated by the country's heterogeneity. Second, the Gulf circle entails cooperation among Bahrain's neighbors, though that has been historically difficult to achieve. The third circle is international, with Bahrain's seeking bilateral agreements with countries like the United States, China, Britain, and France. It is this circle on which Bahrain will continue to rely, and it is likely to bandwagon, allying with the most powerful players in the region.

For a long time, analysts of the Middle East have justifiably focused their attention on Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, three Gulf states holding massive hydrocarbon deposits and financial resources. Their leaders are the main “movers and shakers” of regional affairs and enjoy tremendous influence on the international scene. Still, other Gulf states play significant roles in shaping the Middle East's economic and strategic landscape. Such is the case with Oman, which has been a major US ally in most regional crises and has played a crucial role in mediating Gulf conflicts. This article, based on several visits to the sultanate and interviews with senior officials, analyzes the domestic, regional, and international dynamics being navigated by Sultan Haitham bin Tarik, who succeeded Sultan Qaboos bin Said in January 2020. The argument is that the new Omani leader is likely to follow the domestic and foreign policies of his predecessor, with minor adjustments. Oman may witness major changes when Crown Prince Theyazin succeeds his father. For now, given the crucial role Muscat plays in mediating regional conflicts, the sultanate expects more attention from its counterparts in Washington.

The US withdrawal that left the Taliban in control of Afghanistan has created a security dilemma for China. Beijing considers its Uyghur population to be a terror threat, and it believes the Taliban are allowing the group to use Afghanistan as a refuge from which to plan attacks and transit into Central Asian neighbors. This article analyzes both the historical record and recent moves by China to explain Beijing's strategy of engaging with the Taliban and developing the Afghan economy. The study indicates that the approach has some potential benefits if, as the Chinese assume, economic growth yields stability, good governance, and a cohesive state that can combat terror groups. However, the article demonstrates that Afghan history, the Taliban's ideology, and the vicious circle of instability, economic stagnation, and further chaos are likely to subvert China's goals.

The US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and its ratcheting up of sanctions aimed to cut Iran's oil revenues virtually to zero by reducing trade between Tehran and its top foreign customers, especially China. This article examines the dynamics of the Sino-Iranian oil business and finds that the Chinese have never terminated their imports; instead, when Beijing cannot deal with Tehran directly, it continues the flow through subterranean methods. This practice holds some benefits for both sides, but the Iranian economy has become highly dependent on bartering with the East Asian power: exporting crude and receiving part of the revenues in Chinese goods and services. The two countries have vowed to keep up the oil trade, as sanctions have led Iran toward a growing economic and technological orientation toward the East.

Regional convergence in Eurasia has been evolving since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Commonwealth of Independent States was Russia's initial attempt to forge a comprehensive regional integration. However, Russia gradually shifted its focus to economics, and this produced the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). This organization has concluded numerous cooperation agreements, even with countries outside the borders of Eurasia, raising questions about regional convergence. In addition, with the expansion of China's influence in Central Asia, there has been a shift in the role and scope of the EEU. Iran has concluded a preferential trade agreement with the EEU, including non-tariff measures and a list of commodities for which barriers have been reduced or cut to zero. The main question of this study is how Iran's presence in this organization will influence Eurasian convergence. We examine the opportunities for, and obstacles to, convergence through an analysis of the forces that can bind an institution like the EEU: cultural and ideological affinities; the hegemony of the most powerful actors; and the potential for solving common problems.