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Why Talk Tough? Explaining Japanese Prime Ministers’ Proactiveness in National Defense Rhetoric 为什么要强硬?解读日本首相在国防辞令中的积极性
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-10-18 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orab035
Christine Liu
What explains variations in the proactiveness of Japanese Prime Ministers (PMs) toward national defense? Although the Japanese Constitution renounces the use of force, leaders sometimes speak assertively over national security. Drawing on competing international relations and Japanese foreign policy theories, this study seeks to quantitatively model and analyze predictors of political rhetoric in PMs’ speeches and statements from 2009 to 2019. Each statement is coded into four sets of binary dependent variables through content analysis and tested against five competing hypotheses. The main finding reveals that leaders become more likely to advocate for specifically assertive national security policy when Chinese vessel intrusion increases, but not when North Korea missile tests and aircraft scrambles increase. Instead of a diversionary use of words, an emboldening effect is evident in rhetoric that evokes responsibility in international defense, moderated by ruling government strength. The findings advance academic understandings of Japanese national security policy messaging and highlight the effect of external threat perception on political rhetoric.
如何解释日本首相在国防方面的主动性变化?尽管日本宪法禁止使用武力,但领导人有时会在国家安全问题上发表强硬言论。借鉴国际关系和日本外交政策理论,本研究试图定量建模和分析2009年至2019年总理演讲和声明中政治修辞的预测因素。通过内容分析,将每个语句编码为四组二元因变量,并针对五个相互竞争的假设进行测试。主要发现表明,当中国船只入侵增加时,领导人更有可能倡导特别强硬的国家安全政策,但当朝鲜导弹试验和飞机紧急起飞增加时,则不会。与转移注意力的言辞不同,在唤起国际防务责任的言辞中,有一种明显的壮胆效果,这是由执政政府的力量缓和的。研究结果促进了对日本国家安全政策信息的学术理解,并强调了外部威胁感知对政治修辞的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Power of Knowledge: How Think Tanks Impact US Foreign Policy 知识的力量:智库如何影响美国外交政策
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-10-09 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orab034
Dmitry G. Zaytsev, Valentina V. Kuskova, A. Kononova
Studies on foreign policy consider government as the key actor in policy formulation and implementation. Research, apparently, has devoted far less attention to impact of knowledge brokers, such as think tanks, on policy-making. How and why do think tanks influence US foreign policy? An analysis of five think tanks that differ in terms of their proximity to elites, origin, and ideology reveals two types of nonstate actors’ impact on foreign policy. Think tanks either advocate for own alternative policy proposals, solutions, and actions (“alternatives’ facilitators”), or clarify, justify, and legitimize those of the governments (“policy legitimizers”). These two roles dictate special mechanisms and think tank impact directions. In the first type, think tanks are less oriented toward mass media, but more oriented toward coalitions with nonstate actors and influence the opinions of elites. The second type is the opposite: higher orientation toward mass media and more pronounced connections with elites, and influence on the public. Different origins and strategy of think tanks may be the reasons for some observed differences.
外交政策研究认为,政府是政策制定和实施的关键角色。显然,研究很少关注智库等知识中介对政策制定的影响。智库如何以及为什么影响美国的外交政策?对五个在接近精英、出身和意识形态方面不同的智库进行的分析揭示了两种类型的非国家行为者对外交政策的影响。智库要么倡导自己的替代政策提案、解决方案和行动(“替代方案”促进者),要么澄清、证明和合法化政府的建议、解决方案或行动(“政策合法化者”)。这两个角色决定了特殊的机制和智库的影响方向。在第一种类型中,智库不太倾向于大众媒体,而是更倾向于与非国家行为者结盟,并影响精英的意见。第二种则相反:更倾向于大众媒体,与精英阶层的联系更为明显,对公众的影响力更大。智库的不同起源和策略可能是观察到的一些差异的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Policy Analysis and Armed Non-State Actors in World Politics: Lessons from the Middle East 外交政策分析与世界政治中的武装非国家行为体:来自中东的教训
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-09-10 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orab030
May Darwich
The study of armed non-state actors (ANSAs) has grown exponentially in the last two decades. This article explores the foreign policy of ANSAs as a new empirical domain for foreign policy analysis (FPA) by drawing on various examples from the Middle East to show the merit of this area for novel empirical and theoretical studies. The article identifies the domain of ANSAs’ foreign policy showing how FPA research has so far remained state-centric and almost completely ignores ANSAs. While the external engagement of ANSAs were examined within the scholarship on civil wars, FPA can be adapted to provide systematic scholarly understanding of this phenomenon. Finally, the article explores how studying ANSAs’ foreign policies can revitalize FPA and drive its agenda into new directions.
对武装非国家行为体(ANSAs)的研究在过去二十年中呈指数级增长。本文通过借鉴中东地区的各种实例,探讨了作为外交政策分析(FPA)的一个新的实证领域的ANSAs外交政策,以显示该领域在新的实证和理论研究方面的优点。这篇文章指出了ANSAs外交政策的领域,显示了FPA的研究到目前为止是如何以国家为中心的,几乎完全忽视了ANSAs。虽然ANSAs的外部参与是在内战的学术范围内进行研究的,但FPA可以适应于对这一现象提供系统的学术理解。最后,文章探讨了研究ANSAs的外交政策如何振兴FPA并推动其议程进入新的方向。
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引用次数: 4
Are You Experienced? US Ambassadors and International Crises, 1946–2014 你有经验吗?美国大使与国际危机,1946–2014
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-08-18 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orab026
Paul K. MacDonald
How important are ambassadors in international politics? While a growing body of research stresses the importance of diplomacy in international politics, it remains unclear if individual ambassadors make a significant difference or what attributes make for an effective ambassador. This paper explores these questions through a systematic analysis of 2,730 US ambassadors between 1946 and 2014. The United States is distinctive in that it sends a sizable number of noncareer political appointees to serve as ambassadors. This provides a unique opportunity to examine how an ambassador's experience shapes where they are placed and how they perform. Using various techniques to address selection effects, including matching, I find that the United States is less likely to experience a militarized dispute with a host nation when it is represented by a political ambassador. Moreover, political ambassadors with professional experience in politics or the military, those who are close to the president, and those who are appointed in permissive congressional environments are less likely to experience militarized disputes during their tenure. Individual ambassadors matter, but diplomatic experience alone is not the only attribute that makes for an effective ambassador.
大使在国际政治中有多重要?虽然越来越多的研究强调外交在国际政治中的重要性,但目前尚不清楚个别大使是否会产生重大影响,也不清楚一名有效的大使需要具备哪些特质。本文通过对1946年至2014年间2730名美国大使的系统分析,探讨了这些问题。美国的独特之处在于,它派遣了相当数量的非职业政治任命人员担任大使。这提供了一个独特的机会来研究大使的经历如何影响他们的位置和他们的表现。通过使用各种技术来解决选择效应,包括匹配,我发现当美国有一个政治大使代表时,它不太可能与东道国发生军事争端。此外,具有政治或军事经验的政治大使、与总统关系密切的政治大使、在宽松的国会环境中任命的政治大使在任职期间发生军事纠纷的可能性较小。个别大使很重要,但外交经验本身并不是成为一名有效大使的唯一条件。
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引用次数: 1
All Options Are on the Table? Time Horizons and the Decision-Making Process in Conflict 所有选项都在桌面上?冲突中的时间范围和决策过程
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-08-18 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orab028
Rotem Dvir
This study explores how time horizons shape the decision-making process in international conflicts. I posit that leaders assess only a subset of the available policy options. The proposed decision-making model suggests that time horizons serve as a screening mechanism. Only policies that fit the actor's time horizon enter the choice set and can be eventually selected. Thus, variations in actors’ time horizons generate different choice sets in terms of size and composition. These different choice sets affect the identity of the selected policy. Using a two-phase experiment, I demonstrate that short time horizons reduce the choice set size and the type of options that are considered. The selection of the final policy is sensitive to the inherent trade-off in policy implications and to the composition of the choice set. These findings clarify the influence of time horizons on conflict choices within a two-phase decision process. It also explains why, facing international conflicts, political leaders are not likely to place all policy options “on the table.”
本研究探讨了时间范围如何影响国际冲突中的决策过程。我认为,领导人只评估可用政策选项的一小部分。所提出的决策模型表明,时间范围是一种筛选机制。只有符合参与者时间范围的策略才能进入选择集并最终被选择。因此,演员时间范围的变化在大小和构图方面产生了不同的选择集。这些不同的选择集会影响所选策略的标识。通过两阶段实验,我证明了短时间范围会减少选择集的大小和所考虑的选项类型。最终政策的选择对政策含义的内在权衡和选择集的组成很敏感。这些发现阐明了时间范围对两阶段决策过程中冲突选择的影响。这也解释了为什么面对国际冲突,政治领导人不太可能将所有政策选择“摆在桌面上”
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引用次数: 0
(Geo)Politics of Universal Periodic Review: Why States Issue and Accept Human Rights Recommendations? 普遍定期审议的地缘政治:各国为何发布和接受人权建议?
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-08-18 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orab029
Anže Burger, Igor Kovač, Staša Tkalec
The research identifies geographic proximity as the crucial driving force behind state behavior in the Universal Periodic Review (UPR). Looking at both stages of the UPR mechanism, we pose two questions: what best explains states issuing human rights recommendations and what best explains states accepting those recommendations? Our model controls for a variety of alternative explanations—state capacity, international structure, and international institutions. The results show that the closer the states are, the more likely it is that they will issue each other recommendations; however, the closer the states are, the less likely it is that they will accept recommendations from one another. We also find an important caveat: the logic of issuance and acceptance of recommendations is reversed when it comes to neighboring states. The latter speaks against general international relations literature, where sharing a border and geographic proximity are both associated with increasing the likelihood of conflict.
该研究指出,地理邻近性是各国在普遍定期审议(UPR)中的行为背后的关键驱动力。审视普遍定期审议机制的两个阶段,我们提出了两个问题:什么最能解释国家发布人权建议,什么最能解释国家接受这些建议?我们的模型控制了各种可供选择的解释——国家能力、国际结构和国际机构。结果表明,各州之间的距离越近,他们就越有可能互相发布建议;然而,各州之间的关系越密切,他们接受彼此建议的可能性就越小。我们还发现了一个重要的警告:当涉及到邻国时,提出和接受建议的逻辑是相反的。后者反对一般的国际关系文献,其中共享边界和地理邻近都与增加冲突的可能性有关。
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引用次数: 0
Religious Discrimination, Diaspora, and United Nations Voting on Israel 宗教歧视、侨民和联合国对以色列的投票
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-08-03 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orab024
Tatyana Haykin, J. Fox, Nikola Mirilovic
This study examines whether discrimination against religious minorities and diaspora politics influences United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting on Israel and the Israeli–Palestinian conflict between 1990 and 2014. We test discrimination against Jews, discrimination against Muslims, and general discrimination against all religious minorities in 183 countries. Our results indicate that repressive countries vote against Israel in the UNGA partly as a diversionary tactic seeking to divert attention from their own poor behavior. This is because discriminating against both Jews and Muslims, as well as religious discrimination in general, predict anti-Israel voting. We also find that countries with larger Jewish minorities are more likely to support Israel and countries with larger Muslim minorities are less likely to support Israel, although the latter effect is more conditional and most consistently pronounced in countries where discrimination against Muslims is low. This suggests that diaspora politics and transnational religious ties influence UNGA voting on Israel.
本研究考察了对宗教少数群体的歧视和散居国外的政治是否会影响1990年至2014年间联合国大会对以色列和以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突的投票。我们测试了183个国家对犹太人的歧视、对穆斯林的歧视以及对所有宗教少数群体的普遍歧视。我们的结果表明,镇压国家在联合国大会上投票反对以色列,部分原因是为了转移人们对其不良行为的注意力。这是因为歧视犹太人和穆斯林,以及普遍的宗教歧视,预示着反以色列投票。我们还发现,犹太少数民族人数较多的国家更有可能支持以色列,穆斯林少数民族人数较大的国家不太可能支持以色列。尽管后一种影响更具条件,在对穆斯林歧视较低的国家最为明显。这表明,散居国外的政治和跨国宗教关系影响了联合国大会对以色列的投票。
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引用次数: 1
Global South Leaders and Foreign Policy: The Acceptability Constraint and Transnational Considerations in the Decision Context 全球南方领导人与外交政策:决策背景下的可接受性约束和跨国考虑
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orab025
Andrea K. Grove
Foreign Policy Analysis research documents that foreign policy decisions have internal and external influences. In the Global South (GS), interests and identities are transnational in nature. The acceptability heuristic from poliheuristic (PH) theory is the jumping-off point for exploring this idea. Leaders reject policy choices that risk political loss. Key concepts from GS scholarship offer insight into the unrecognized transnational nature of two of PH theory's acceptability considerations, regime survival, and legitimacy. Leaders judge how a policy protects regime survival and legitimacy based on ideas about threats and constituents. Foreign policy paths are understood by investigating the transnational strategies they use to address regime security and legitimacy concerns. The strategy concept developed in previous work is applied to Museveni's Uganda. We see GS leaders evaluate but also create acceptability by engaging in intermestic policy driven by these transnational concerns. They also manipulate more powerful states, increasing their significance beyond expectations.
《外交政策分析》研究表明,外交政策决定有内部和外部影响。在全球南方(GS),利益和身份在本质上是跨国的。多元启发式(PH)理论中的可接受性启发式是探索这一思想的出发点。领导人拒绝有政治损失风险的政策选择。GS奖学金的关键概念提供了对PH理论的两个可接受性考虑因素(政权生存和合法性)未被承认的跨国性质的见解。领导人根据对威胁和选民的看法来判断一项政策如何保护政权的生存和合法性。外交政策路径是通过调查他们用来解决政权安全和合法性问题的跨国战略来理解的。在以前的工作中发展的战略概念适用于穆塞韦尼的乌干达。我们看到GS领导人通过参与由这些跨国问题驱动的国内政策来评估并创造可接受性。他们还操纵更强大的国家,使其重要性超出预期。
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引用次数: 0
Transnational Activism and Domestic Politics: Arms Exports and the Anti-Apartheid Struggle in the UK–South Africa Relations (1959–1994) 跨国激进主义与国内政治:武器出口与英国-南非关系中的反种族隔离斗争(1959–1994)
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-07-16 DOI: 10.1093/FPA/ORAB023
Rodrigo Fracalossi de Moraes
In 1964, the UK government imposed an arms embargo on South Africa, which it maintained until the end of the white minority rule. What explains this embargo? Using mainly archival evidence, this paper demonstrates that domestic political dynamics in the United Kingdom mediated the influence of the transnational anti-apartheid and anti-colonial struggles on the British government. The United Kingdom imposed and maintained this embargo due in part to a domestic advocacy network, whose hub was the Anti-Apartheid Movement. The paper provides a comprehensive explanation of an important issue in British foreign policy, the anti-colonial struggle, and Southern Africa's history. There are theoretical implications for foreign policy analysis concerning the role of advocacy networks, interactions between local and global activism, the role of political parties’ ideology and contestation, the effects on foreign policy of changes in a normative environment, the effects of norm contestation, and normative determinants of sanctions.
1964年,英国政府对南非实施了武器禁运,并一直维持到白人少数统治结束。是什么解释了这种禁运?本文主要利用档案证据,论证了英国国内政治动态对跨国反种族隔离和反殖民斗争对英国政府的影响。联合王国实施并维持这一禁运的部分原因是一个以反种族隔离运动为中心的国内宣传网络。本文对英国外交政策、反殖民斗争和南部非洲历史中的一个重要问题进行了全面的解释。关于倡导网络的作用、地方和全球激进主义之间的互动、政党意识形态和争论的作用、规范环境中的变化对外交政策的影响、规范争论的影响以及制裁的规范决定因素,外交政策分析具有理论意义。
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引用次数: 1
Constructing National Values: The Nationally Distinctive Turn in Russian IR Theory and Foreign Policy 建构民族价值观:俄罗斯国际关系理论与外交政策的民族特色转向
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-07-14 DOI: 10.1093/FPA/ORAB022
A. Tsygankov, P. Tsygankov
As the world moves away from the West-centered international system, IR scholars are increasingly turning their attention to substance and formation of national values. Using the case of Russia, we show how distinct schools of IR theory and foreign policy dominant in the country have come to recognize the importance of national values as a lens through which to assess the country's means and goals of development. Each in its way, these schools—Civilizationists, Statists, and Westernizers—have prioritized “the national” in the country's future. We explain Russia's turn to the national by stressing the country's ontological insecurity, the role of the Russian state, and Western actions that contribute to creating and exacerbating the conditions of ontological insecurity. The case of Russia has important implications for understanding the role of national values in the formation of foreign policy and IR theory.
随着世界逐渐脱离以西方为中心的国际体系,国际关系学者越来越关注国家价值观的实质和形成。以俄罗斯为例,我们展示了在该国占主导地位的国际关系理论和外交政策的不同学派如何认识到国家价值观作为评估国家发展手段和目标的透镜的重要性。这些学派——文明主义者、中央集权主义者和西方化主义者——都以各自的方式将“民族”置于国家未来的优先地位。我们通过强调国家的本体论不安全,俄罗斯国家的作用以及有助于创造和加剧本体论不安全条件的西方行动来解释俄罗斯转向民族。俄罗斯的案例对于理解国家价值观在外交政策和国际关系理论形成中的作用具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
Foreign Policy Analysis
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