Pub Date : 2025-08-11DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101340
Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg
This study examines the impact of changing age structures on risky and risk-free assets. Considering that demographic transition is lagged in emerging market economies (EMEs) but the change in age structures will be more rapid than in advanced economies (AEs), we consider two panels of AEs and EMEs. Unlike previous literature on the demographic transition, we address the issue of cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. Our key findings suggest that the prime working-age population significantly influences both risky and risk-free assets in AEs and EMEs alike. However, the old-age dependency ratio tends to have a different impact on risk-free assets.
{"title":"Demographic transition and financial assets","authors":"Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101340","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101340","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of changing age structures on risky and risk-free assets. Considering that demographic transition is lagged in emerging market economies (EMEs) but the change in age structures will be more rapid than in advanced economies (AEs), we consider two panels of AEs and EMEs. Unlike previous literature on the demographic transition, we address the issue of cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. Our key findings suggest that the prime working-age population significantly influences both risky and risk-free assets in AEs and EMEs alike. However, the old-age dependency ratio tends to have a different impact on risk-free assets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101340"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144826898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-11DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101346
Guangling Liu, Marrium Mustapher
This study examines how different policy mix regimes affect the impact of recent US contractionary monetary policy on South Africa’s inflation and business cycles. The study uses a small open economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with an integrated fiscal block to analyze these effects. Regime M (active monetary policy) is more effective at containing the spillover effects, but leads to higher public debt, requiring larger future fiscal surpluses. The commitment to price stability under Regime M increases real interest rates, raising domestic debt service costs and the debt-to-GDP ratio. Regime F (active fiscal policy), in contrast, stabilizes debt more quickly but at the cost of higher inflation, as it does not use future surpluses to manage public debt. Furthermore, these spillover effects are more amplified under both Regime M and Regime F in the case of a complete exchange rate pass-through and a higher degree of trade openness, with Regime F exhibiting a stronger amplification effect.
{"title":"Spillover effects of the recent US monetary policy shocks on the South African economy: The role of monetary and fiscal policy coordination","authors":"Guangling Liu, Marrium Mustapher","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101346","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101346","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how different policy mix regimes affect the impact of recent US contractionary monetary policy on South Africa’s inflation and business cycles. The study uses a small open economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with an integrated fiscal block to analyze these effects. Regime M (active monetary policy) is more effective at containing the spillover effects, but leads to higher public debt, requiring larger future fiscal surpluses. The commitment to price stability under Regime M increases real interest rates, raising domestic debt service costs and the debt-to-GDP ratio. Regime F (active fiscal policy), in contrast, stabilizes debt more quickly but at the cost of higher inflation, as it does not use future surpluses to manage public debt. Furthermore, these spillover effects are more amplified under both Regime M and Regime F in the case of a complete exchange rate pass-through and a higher degree of trade openness, with Regime F exhibiting a stronger amplification effect.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101346"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144840899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-05DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101345
Zhiwen Wang
This paper examines the impact and mechanisms of common ownership between banks and firms on corporate ESG performance, by using a dataset derived from the lending and equity relationship between Chinese A-share listed companies and banks from 2009 to 2023. This common ownership significantly enhances corporate ESG performance through a financing channel that increases loan size and eases financing constraints, and an information channel that reduces information asymmetry and increases external regulation. The positive effect is particularly evident among firms with lower media attention and heavily polluting industries.
{"title":"The impact of common ownership between banks and firms on corporate ESG performance: Evidence from China","authors":"Zhiwen Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101345","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101345","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact and mechanisms of common ownership between banks and firms on corporate ESG performance, by using a dataset derived from the lending and equity relationship between Chinese A-share listed companies and banks from 2009 to 2023. This common ownership significantly enhances corporate ESG performance through a financing channel that increases loan size and eases financing constraints, and an information channel that reduces information asymmetry and increases external regulation. The positive effect is particularly evident among firms with lower media attention and heavily polluting industries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101345"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144781881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-31DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101343
Mingye Wei , Min Zhang , Lu Wei , Meiqi Chen
This paper develops IPOhelper based on statistical (financial, technological innovation indicators) and semantic cues (textual indicators) in registration statements, which is a novel predictive system for initial public offering (IPO) prediction. Based on 692 registration statements of technological innovation companies from 2019 to 2023, we found that the IPOhelper performs exceptionally well in predicting IPO outcomes. Compared with statistical cues, the predictive abilities of semantic features are particularly prominent. In particular, the semantic feature of “Technovation”, which reflects the adequacy of innovation-related information disclosure, is the most important feature for IPO prediction.
{"title":"IPOhelper: Mining features in registration statements for listing prediction of technological innovation companies","authors":"Mingye Wei , Min Zhang , Lu Wei , Meiqi Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101343","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101343","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops IPOhelper based on statistical (financial, technological innovation indicators) and semantic cues (textual indicators) in registration statements, which is a novel predictive system for initial public offering (IPO) prediction. Based on 692 registration statements of technological innovation companies from 2019 to 2023, we found that the IPOhelper performs exceptionally well in predicting IPO outcomes. Compared with statistical cues, the predictive abilities of semantic features are particularly prominent. In particular, the semantic feature of “Technovation”, which reflects the adequacy of innovation-related information disclosure, is the most important feature for IPO prediction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101343"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101344
Mohammed Adem
This study examines the nonlinear impact of financial regulation on stability by considering financial development and business models. Using African countries' data (2002–2019) and two-stage instrumental variable (2SIV) estimation, I find that excessive regulation beyond a certain threshold harms stability. Increasing non-interest income business models can improve the effectiveness of financial regulations and development by strengthening stability. Powerful supervision, restrictions, and entry barriers contribute to instability. Non-interest income business models can reduce the negative impact of supervision and market discipline. The past values of financial regulation, non-interest income business models, and development contain information that helps predict stability.
{"title":"Intricacies of financial liberalization, business models, and financial development on Bank stability in Africa","authors":"Mohammed Adem","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101344","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101344","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the nonlinear impact of financial regulation on stability by considering financial development and business models. Using African countries' data (2002–2019) and two-stage instrumental variable (2SIV) estimation, I find that excessive regulation beyond a certain threshold harms stability. Increasing non-interest income business models can improve the effectiveness of financial regulations and development by strengthening stability. Powerful supervision, restrictions, and entry barriers contribute to instability. Non-interest income business models can reduce the negative impact of supervision and market discipline. The past values of financial regulation, non-interest income business models, and development contain information that helps predict stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101344"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101342
Runmei Luo, Yong Ye, Manman Li, Jingxin Li
This study examines whether and how private information transmitted by investors during interactions with managers affects corporate investment efficiency, with a particular focus on the role of managerial learning. Utilizing textual data from earnings communication conferences (ECCs) of Chinese listed companies, we find that the substantive information conveyed by investors helps mitigate firms' inefficient investment. Further analysis reveals that this mitigating effect is more pronounced when managers are highly competent or when firms place greater emphasis on investor protection, whereas it is weaker when CEOs are overconfident or when firms face more severe financing constraints. After conducting robustness checks on variable validity and sensitivity, and addressing potential endogeneity concerns, the main conclusions remain robust. Additional analyses suggest that managerial learning effects serve as the underlying mechanism through which the transmission of investors' private information influences investment efficiency, and such information transmission primarily suppresses inefficient investments by alleviating corporate underinvestment. This study underscores the informational role of investors in capital markets and provides critical insights for firms to optimize resource allocation.
{"title":"Pooling wisdom: The impact of investors' private information transmission on corporate investment efficiency","authors":"Runmei Luo, Yong Ye, Manman Li, Jingxin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101342","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101342","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines whether and how private information transmitted by investors during interactions with managers affects corporate investment efficiency, with a particular focus on the role of managerial learning. Utilizing textual data from earnings communication conferences (ECCs) of Chinese listed companies, we find that the substantive information conveyed by investors helps mitigate firms' inefficient investment. Further analysis reveals that this mitigating effect is more pronounced when managers are highly competent or when firms place greater emphasis on investor protection, whereas it is weaker when CEOs are overconfident or when firms face more severe financing constraints. After conducting robustness checks on variable validity and sensitivity, and addressing potential endogeneity concerns, the main conclusions remain robust. Additional analyses suggest that managerial learning effects serve as the underlying mechanism through which the transmission of investors' private information influences investment efficiency, and such information transmission primarily suppresses inefficient investments by alleviating corporate underinvestment. This study underscores the informational role of investors in capital markets and provides critical insights for firms to optimize resource allocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101342"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144781880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-23DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101341
Yuyang Chen , Shuyi Zhu
This study investigates how the integrity atmosphere in a firm's local area affects the firm's cost of equity. Using the Credit Demonstration City Construction program in China as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that firms headquartered in pilot cities enjoy lower equity financing costs following implementation of the program. The results can be attributed to improved information-disclosure quality, decreased agency costs, and better corporate social responsibility performance. Further analyses show that the reduction in the cost of equity is significant for firms whose monitoring environments are weak and those that operate in industries that depend heavily on equity financing.
{"title":"Integrity atmosphere and the cost of equity: Evidence from China","authors":"Yuyang Chen , Shuyi Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101341","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101341","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how the integrity atmosphere in a firm's local area affects the firm's cost of equity. Using the Credit Demonstration City Construction program in China as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that firms headquartered in pilot cities enjoy lower equity financing costs following implementation of the program. The results can be attributed to improved information-disclosure quality, decreased agency costs, and better corporate social responsibility performance. Further analyses show that the reduction in the cost of equity is significant for firms whose monitoring environments are weak and those that operate in industries that depend heavily on equity financing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101341"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144704837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-21DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101333
Felipe Beltrán
This paper analyzes how monetary policy surprises in the U.S. affect emerging market economies (EMs) by focusing on the transmission through the real exchange rate (RER) and country spreads (EMBI). To do so, I disentangle U.S. interest rate movements between both a pure monetary policy shock and an information shock; while the former is constructed based on high-frequency movements of interest rates around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, the latter builds from employment releases. I quantify the relative impacts using a structural VAR (SVAR) model with external instruments. The results suggest that a pure monetary policy shock produces a persistent appreciation of the RER in the U.S. coupled with an increase of the EMBI, which induces contractionary effects in the real sector of EMs. In contrast, an information shock does not necessarily produce such contractionary effects in EMs. These results contribute to the literature by identifying the specific drivers behind Fed announcements and its transmission channels to EMs.
{"title":"Global monetary policy surprises and their transmission to emerging market economies: An external VAR analysis","authors":"Felipe Beltrán","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101333","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101333","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes how monetary policy surprises in the U.S. affect emerging market economies (EMs) by focusing on the transmission through the real exchange rate (RER) and country spreads (EMBI). To do so, I disentangle U.S. interest rate movements between both a pure monetary policy shock and an information shock; while the former is constructed based on high-frequency movements of interest rates around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, the latter builds from employment releases. I quantify the relative impacts using a structural VAR (SVAR) model with external instruments. The results suggest that a pure monetary policy shock produces a persistent appreciation of the RER in the U.S. coupled with an increase of the EMBI, which induces contractionary effects in the real sector of EMs. In contrast, an information shock does not necessarily produce such contractionary effects in EMs. These results contribute to the literature by identifying the specific drivers behind Fed announcements and its transmission channels to EMs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101333"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144679630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-18DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101338
Adrian Alter, Bashar Hlayhel, Thomas Kroen, Thomas Piontek
This paper assesses the state and resilience of corporate and banking sectors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment using granular micro data to conduct the first cross-country corporate and banking sector stress tests for the MENA region. The results suggest that corporate sector debt at risk may increase sizably from 13.5 in 2023 to nearly 33 % of total corporate debt by the end of 2025. Banking systems would be broadly resilient in an adverse scenario featuring higher interest rates, corporate sector stress, and rising liquidity pressures with Tier-1 capital ratios declining by 3.4 percentage points in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and 4.5 % age points in non-GCC MENA countries. In the cross-section of banks, there are pockets of vulnerabilities as banks with higher ex-ante vulnerabilities and state-owned banks suffer greater losses. While manageable, the capital losses in the adverse scenario could limit lending and adversely impact growth.
{"title":"Are higher interest rates a concern for financial stability in MENA?","authors":"Adrian Alter, Bashar Hlayhel, Thomas Kroen, Thomas Piontek","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101338","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101338","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper assesses the state and resilience of corporate and banking sectors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment using granular micro data to conduct the first cross-country corporate and banking sector stress tests for the MENA region. The results suggest that corporate sector debt at risk may increase sizably from 13.5 in 2023 to nearly 33 % of total corporate debt by the end of 2025. Banking systems would be broadly resilient in an adverse scenario featuring higher interest rates, corporate sector stress, and rising liquidity pressures with Tier-1 capital ratios declining by 3.4 percentage points in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and 4.5 % age points in non-GCC MENA countries. In the cross-section of banks, there are pockets of vulnerabilities as banks with higher ex-ante vulnerabilities and state-owned banks suffer greater losses. While manageable, the capital losses in the adverse scenario could limit lending and adversely impact growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101338"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144781879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101336
Yaozhi Chen , Honghong Wei
We examine the impact of overseas experiences on second-generation successors in family enterprises from a cultural learning perspective. By manually curating data, we find that these successors significantly enhance both the quantity and quality of corporate innovation. Mechanism tests indicate that overseas experiences, through cultural learning, enhance risk-taking, confidence, and reduce seniority culture, fostering innovation. Furthermore, heterogeneity tests show that while these experiences hinder innovation in company locations with strong Confucian culture, they enhance it with high social openness. The results remain robust under a series of robustness and endogeneity tests.
{"title":"Overseas experience and corporate innovation: Second-generation successors in family enterprises","authors":"Yaozhi Chen , Honghong Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101336","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101336","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of overseas experiences on second-generation successors in family enterprises from a cultural learning perspective. By manually curating data, we find that these successors significantly enhance both the quantity and quality of corporate innovation. Mechanism tests indicate that overseas experiences, through cultural learning, enhance risk-taking, confidence, and reduce seniority culture, fostering innovation. Furthermore, heterogeneity tests show that while these experiences hinder innovation in company locations with strong Confucian culture, they enhance it with high social openness. The results remain robust under a series of robustness and endogeneity tests.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101336"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144634113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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