Emerging Markets Review最新文献

This study explores the latent driving structure of sectoral risk contagion in terms of volatility and jump through the factor model framework for high-dimensional matrix-valued time series. We find strong inter-sector volatility and jump spillover effects at the mean level and higher effects at extreme tails, while jump spillovers reflect sharper structural shifts with the promotion of major financial or public events. Both volatility and jump are contagious in the form of a community-structure. Our findings provide new evidence about sectoral risk contagion and the importance of accurately identifying the underlying structure of risk contagion for efficiently realizing hierarchical regulation.

We develop a DSGE model with cash deposits and digital currencies to study the economic stability of two potential central banking policies in China, a Loan Prime Rate (LPR) policy function and central bank digital currency (CBDC) implementation. We Bayesian-estimate both a benchmark model and a “Post-CBDC world”. In the post-CBDC world, although the introduction of CBDC appears to deepen the procyclicality of macroeconomic variables to real shocks, a potential LPR-setting policy appears to have some degree of policy complementarity with CBDC to mitigate this. We also uncover an optimal policy combination of the LPR rule and Taylor-style CBDC rule.

This study explores the link between financial development and the shadow economy in 45 African economies from 1991 to 2019. While overall financial indices show no clear impact on the shadow economy across the entire sample, a nuanced pattern emerges when considering income groups. In low-income countries, financial institutions' index significantly amplify the shadow economy, whereas in lower middle-income nations, broader financial market measures independently contribute to its expansion. This reveals a heterogeneous relationship between financial development and the shadow economy in Africa, emphasizing the income-specific dynamics influencing these interactions.

According to the Schumpeterian cleansing hypothesis, economic downturns force inefficient firms off the market, freeing resources that can be allocated to more efficient firms. India, as an emerging economy, may experience a similar reallocation. The study uses micro-level data for publicly traded firms, including manufacturing and services sector firms, from 1988 to 2020. We find that reallocation is productivity-enhancing in general, i.e., credit moves from firms with low productivity to firms with high productivity, and normal economic downturns induce this efficiency-enhancing reallocation. We also observe that reallocation is less efficiency-enhancing during the Indian financial crisis, and constraints on productive firms could be one of the potential explanations for the lack of a cleansing effect.

The Afghanistan microfinance industry has witnessed laurels in recent decades, making it crucial to closely monitor its development and sustainability. This study aims to assess the performance of Islamic and conventional microfinance loans in two aspects: first, by examining the occurrence of loan defaults, and second, by distinguishing between loan performance in areas controlled by the Taliban and those outside their control. To accomplish this, we analyze a unique dataset comprising over 9500 borrowers linked to an Afghan microfinance institution during the period spanning from January 2017 to February 2020. Our findings reveal that regions under Taliban control experienced fewer instances of loan defaults compared to areas not under their influence. Additionally, our analysis indicates that borrowers of Islamic loans in Afghanistan default more frequently than borrowers of conventional loans, particularly in Taliban-controlled areas. These observations remain largely consistent when we explore the factors influencing the number of days overdue on loan repayments. Furthermore, our conclusions find further support from both of the microfinance institution's Islamic loan products: business Murabaha loans, available to individuals of any gender, and women Murabaha loans, created as a group lending scheme exclusively for women. The results from this study offer valuable insights into how policy discussions in Afghanistan should be adjusted to facilitate a smooth transition for the microfinance industry.

Through a proprietary dataset of listed firms on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, we establish a positive link between firms' financial technology (Fintech) business and their corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices. Such a link can be more pronounced among firms of stronger political connections, lower agency costs, and better internal control. Enhanced supply of bank loans, internal capital market, public scrutiny, and firms' strategic differences are underlying the link. Fintech business may also effectively curb firms' corporate social irresponsibility (CSI) behaviour. Fintech business may have become a strategic endeavor to sustain long-term economic growth in the digital age.

This paper investigates the relationship among trade liberalization, the degree of trade openness (DTO) and regional foreign direct investment (FDI) using Chinese data for 2001–2018 by hand collection. We apply the fixed effect model and find that both trade liberalization and regional DTO have a significantly positive relationship with regional FDI. Furthermore, a variable coefficient model is used to prove that the effects of trade liberalization on regional FDI are heterogeneous across regions. Finally, we use the threshold model to prove the significant threshold effects of DTO on the relationship of trade liberalization and FDI. This paper provides theoretical and policy support for countries with obvious regional differences to attract FDI.

We investigate whether and how banks adjust their financial positions in the wake of labor strikes. Using hand-collected data at the bank-municipality level in Brazil during 2006–2016, we find that banks significantly increase loan loss provisions, reduce loans disbursed, and hold less liquidity just before the bank labor strikes. These results are consistent with a bargaining hypothesis, suggesting that banks account for fewer current earnings, reduce expected cash flows, and reveal less cash and cash equivalents to labor unions before the anticipated strikes to counter the rent-seeking behavior of unions and strengthen their bargaining power in upcoming wage negotiations.

Our paper examines how large shareholders manage goodwill impairment to inflate earnings as well as the role of audit functions in this setting. The influence of large shareholders on corporate decisions is well documented, however, overlooked in goodwill literature. Using data from China, we find that a higher ownership percentage held by large shareholders associates with a lower likelihood of recording goodwill impairment as well as a reduced impairment amount, suggesting that goodwill impairment is intentionally avoided or decreased by large shareholders. We further find that the presence of big4 auditors mitigates such relationship.

This study investigates the impact of the expanded audit report on IPO underpricing. Using the sample of A-share listed firms in China from June 2014 to November 2021, we find that the expanded audit reports can reduce the speculative behavior of investors in the initial phase of IPOs, resulting in lower IPO underpricing and consecutive rising limits. The channel tests suggest that the disclosure of key audit matters reduces value uncertainty and alleviates investors' local bias. Our results are consistent to a series of robustness tests. Further analyses show that the negative relation between expanded audit reports and IPO underpricing intensifies when the legal environment is weak and firms' information transparency is low. Additional tests uncover positive market reaction after the mandatory disclosure rule in the long run. Overall, our study adds new insights to the information effects of the expanded audit reports in emerging markets.