Emerging Markets Review最新文献

We investigate the contagion of US COVID-19 panic news, measured by the sentiment-based RavenPack US Panic Index, on the local stock market returns of 48 countries. Local stock market returns are found to be more significantly negatively associated with the US panic news than local panic news. Our results show that a 1% increase in the US Panic Index reduces local stock returns by 1.44%. The result holds for regional and subregional groupings and are robust to alternative measures of COVID-19 information. Furthermore, our contagion channel analysis shows that the differences of opinion channel is the key contagion transmission channel from the US to local markets. This alludes to the investor behavior contagion view, and not the fundamental contagion view, being the main driver of global contagion during the pandemic.

This research focuses on the cash conversion cycle as a crucial metric for evaluating short-term firm performance. Despite its importance, there has been limited investigation into the relationship between the cash conversion cycle and firm performance within the five major emerging markets, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) as a single region. To bridge this gap, our study examines this relationship using a comprehensive dataset spanning the period of 2009–2019. Employing a set of regression analyses namely, seemingly unrelated regression, system generalized method of moments, dynamic quantile regression, and difference-in-difference regression, we provide empirical evidence indicating an inverse association between cash conversion cycle and firm performance across all BRICS countries. Specifically, firms with longer cash conversion cycle periods exhibit lower profitability compared to those with shorter cash conversion cycle periods. Moreover, our analysis incorporates various control variables encompassing firm and country characteristics, which also display significant relationships with firm performance. These empirical findings are robust, aligned with existing theoretical frameworks, and support the cash conversion cycle theory. The outcomes of this study offer valuable insights for investors, policymakers, financial managers, and debt holders, contributing to their decision-making processes.

Enforcement actions aim to strengthen financial stability, and China has gradually bolstered the intensity of its own related actions. This research manually sorts out the enforcement action decision documents published by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission one by one, constructs micro-level enforcement action indicators, uses $△\mathrm{CoVaR}$ and connectedness, and empirically examines the relationship between enforcement actions and banking systemic risk from global and connectedness perspectives. We find that enforcement actions reduce systemic risk in banks and have a continuous reduction effect within three quarters after their initiation. The reduction impact of enforcement actions on connectedness is only reflected after two quarters of initiation. In addition, we adopt the $△\mathrm{CoVaR}$ decomposition method and find that enforcement actions significantly reduce the tail risk of banks and lower their interconnectedness, but with a time lag effect. Lastly, we evaluate the systemic risk of enforcement actions on different types of banks and note that they substantially reduce such risk in high-capital and state-owned banks more than in low-capital and joint-stock banks.

This paper explores inflows and outflows patterns in retail equity mutual funds related to past and future performance derived from detailed monthly security-level holdings of funds in the Czech Republic. We find that retail investors become sensitive to bad performance in times of aggregate illiquidity and while investing in funds that hold more illiquid assets. Moreover, we document that when facing illiquidity and deteriorating performance, under-performing equity investing funds experience lower investor purchases and a larger share of redemption requests. We observe similar investor behaviour in periods when retail investors face constraints on their disposable income.

This study investigates whether and how digital transformation affects corporate labor investment efficiency. Based on a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2008 to 2020, this paper finds that digital transformation increases corporate labor investment efficiency. Our results still hold after using a series of robustness checks. Mechanism tests show that reducing agency problems and mitigating financing restrictions are potential channels through which digital transformation improves corporate labor investment efficiency. Further analyses reveal that digital transformation reduces both overinvestment and underinvestment in labor. Distinguishing different digital technologies, we find that artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing technology, as well as digital technology applications improve corporate labor investment efficiency, while the impact of blockchain technology is insignificant. In addition, digital transformation's positive effect on corporate labor investment efficiency is more pronounced for firms in non-labor-intensive industries, private firms, and those with more highly skilled labor. Overall, this study deepens our understanding of digital transformation's governance role in improving corporate labor investment efficiency.

This study explores the latent driving structure of sectoral risk contagion in terms of volatility and jump through the factor model framework for high-dimensional matrix-valued time series. We find strong inter-sector volatility and jump spillover effects at the mean level and higher effects at extreme tails, while jump spillovers reflect sharper structural shifts with the promotion of major financial or public events. Both volatility and jump are contagious in the form of a community-structure. Our findings provide new evidence about sectoral risk contagion and the importance of accurately identifying the underlying structure of risk contagion for efficiently realizing hierarchical regulation.

We develop a DSGE model with cash deposits and digital currencies to study the economic stability of two potential central banking policies in China, a Loan Prime Rate (LPR) policy function and central bank digital currency (CBDC) implementation. We Bayesian-estimate both a benchmark model and a “Post-CBDC world”. In the post-CBDC world, although the introduction of CBDC appears to deepen the procyclicality of macroeconomic variables to real shocks, a potential LPR-setting policy appears to have some degree of policy complementarity with CBDC to mitigate this. We also uncover an optimal policy combination of the LPR rule and Taylor-style CBDC rule.

This study explores the link between financial development and the shadow economy in 45 African economies from 1991 to 2019. While overall financial indices show no clear impact on the shadow economy across the entire sample, a nuanced pattern emerges when considering income groups. In low-income countries, financial institutions' index significantly amplify the shadow economy, whereas in lower middle-income nations, broader financial market measures independently contribute to its expansion. This reveals a heterogeneous relationship between financial development and the shadow economy in Africa, emphasizing the income-specific dynamics influencing these interactions.

According to the Schumpeterian cleansing hypothesis, economic downturns force inefficient firms off the market, freeing resources that can be allocated to more efficient firms. India, as an emerging economy, may experience a similar reallocation. The study uses micro-level data for publicly traded firms, including manufacturing and services sector firms, from 1988 to 2020. We find that reallocation is productivity-enhancing in general, i.e., credit moves from firms with low productivity to firms with high productivity, and normal economic downturns induce this efficiency-enhancing reallocation. We also observe that reallocation is less efficiency-enhancing during the Indian financial crisis, and constraints on productive firms could be one of the potential explanations for the lack of a cleansing effect.

The Afghanistan microfinance industry has witnessed laurels in recent decades, making it crucial to closely monitor its development and sustainability. This study aims to assess the performance of Islamic and conventional microfinance loans in two aspects: first, by examining the occurrence of loan defaults, and second, by distinguishing between loan performance in areas controlled by the Taliban and those outside their control. To accomplish this, we analyze a unique dataset comprising over 9500 borrowers linked to an Afghan microfinance institution during the period spanning from January 2017 to February 2020. Our findings reveal that regions under Taliban control experienced fewer instances of loan defaults compared to areas not under their influence. Additionally, our analysis indicates that borrowers of Islamic loans in Afghanistan default more frequently than borrowers of conventional loans, particularly in Taliban-controlled areas. These observations remain largely consistent when we explore the factors influencing the number of days overdue on loan repayments. Furthermore, our conclusions find further support from both of the microfinance institution's Islamic loan products: business Murabaha loans, available to individuals of any gender, and women Murabaha loans, created as a group lending scheme exclusively for women. The results from this study offer valuable insights into how policy discussions in Afghanistan should be adjusted to facilitate a smooth transition for the microfinance industry.