Journal of Safety Research最新文献_第2页

Prediction and interpretation of crash severity using machine learning based on imbalanced traffic crash data

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.02.018

Junlan Chen , Pei Liu , Shuo Wang , Nan Zheng , Xiucheng Guo

Introduction: Predicting and interpreting crash severity is essential for developing cost-effective safety measures. Machine learning (ML) models in crash severity studies have attracted much attention recently due to their promising predicted performance. However, the limited interpretability of ML techniques is a common critique. Additionally, the inherent data imbalance in crash datasets, mainly due to a scarcity of fatal injury (FI) crashes, presents challenges for both classifiers and interpreters. Method: Motivated by these research needs, innovative resampling techniques and ML methods are introduced and compared to model a Washington State dataset comprising traffic crashes from 2014 to 2018. Results: When compared to the traditional resampling methods, the random forest model trained on the datasets synthesized by deep-learning resampling techniques demonstrates significantly improved sensitivity and G-mean performance. Furthermore, the interpretable ML approach, Shapley Additive explanation (SHAP), approach is employed to quantify the individual and interaction effects of risk factors based on the predicted results. Significant risk factors are identified, including airbag, crash type, posted speed limit and grade percentage. With the SHAP method, the individual effects and interaction effects of risk factors are explored. It is observed that roadways in rural (urban) had positive (negative) effects on the crash severity. Compared with non-FI (nFI) crashes, speed limits have more effects on FI crashes. Drivers involved in rear/front-end crashes under the influence of alcohol were more likely to be associated with FI crashes. Practical Applications: These findings hold significant implications for the development of precise crash modification factors for transportation departments dealing with imbalanced traffic crash data.

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引用次数: 0

Older adult fall injuries and the usage of fall screener tools

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.02.019

Dawson S. Dobash , Ramakrishna S. Kakara

Introduction: Older adult (≥65 years) falls are common and may result in severe injuries. There is limited knowledge about what proportion of older adults who fall sustain injuries that need medical attention. Screening is the first step in helping older adults reduce their risk of falls. However, there is limited research on how well current fall screeners can predict fall injuries. Methods: Previously collected data from community-dwelling older adults enrolled in a 13-month long study, from the AmeriSpeak Panel, were analyzed. Baseline survey included questions related to demographics, falls risk factors, and falls risk screeners (CDC’s 3 Key Questions (3KQ) and Stay Independent). Weighted percentages and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of older adults reporting one or more falls, fall-related injuries, falls needing any medical attention, falls resulting in doctor visits, and falls resulting in Emergency Department (ED) visits and/or hospitalization by demographics and fall risk factors were calculated. Risk ratios, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated to compare the two screeners’ ability to predict fall injury outcomes. Results: Among older adults who fell, 24.8% had an injury resulting in any medical attention, 14.5% sought treatment at a doctor’s office, and 14.3% sought treatment at an ED/hospital. Sensitivity estimates for baseline 3KQ and Stay Independent screeners for falls resulting in an ED/hospital visit were 87.3% and 75.0%, respectively. Specificity estimates were 47.4% and 63.6%. Conclusion: At least one in four older adults who fell needed medical attention. The 3KQ or Stay Independent screeners identified a large proportion of older adults who sought treatment at an ED/hospital for falls. However, using them may result in a large number of false positives. Practical Application: Clinicians may use these screeners to identify older adults at high fall injury risk, assess them for specific risk factors, and intervene accordingly.

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引用次数: 0

Snow or ice-related injury claims in cold months during 2016–2021

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.02.013

Komi K.S. Modji, Katherine E. McCoy, Paul D. Creswell, Carrie D. Tomasallo, Sheryl Bedno

Introduction: Falls, a preventable worker-related injury, are major contributors to worker’s disability and death. In spite of this, there is relatively little analysis on snow or ice- related slips, trips and falls among workers in the workers’ compensation system. This analysis aimed to describe the frequency, characteristics, and occupational burden of snow or ice-related slip, trip, or fall (STF) claims in Wisconsin. Methods: This study is a descriptive analysis of working age adults’ snow or ice-related STF lost time claims during the months of October through April for the years 2016–2022. Results: A total of 7,385 claims were reported, which represented 33.1% of all STF injuries. The overall claim rate during the study period was 2.65 claims per 1,000 workers (95% CI: 2.60 – 2.71). Workers aged 45 years or more had the highest risk. Fracture of lower leg, including ankle (20.3%), intracranial injury (10.7%), and fracture of the forearm (7.3%) were the most frequent primary diagnoses among hospitalized cases or seen in the emergency room. The mean lost time was 11.8 weeks (range: 0.5 – 210.3 weeks). Transportation and Warehousing, Public Administration and Wholesale Trade industries had the highest burden. Occupations with the highest burden were Transportation and Material Moving, Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance, Installation, Maintenance, and Repair. Conclusions: Snow or ice-related STFs remain a common cause of injuries in cold weather and are particularly relevant for an aging workforce. Practical Applications: This analysis informs on the occupational burden of the snow or ice-related events on workers. It is important for preparedness and prevention efforts because of the frequency of unpredictable snow or ice events particularly in regions that are not used to it.

{"title":"Snow or ice-related injury claims in cold months during 2016–2021","authors":"Komi K.S. Modji, Katherine E. McCoy, Paul D. Creswell, Carrie D. Tomasallo, Sheryl Bedno","doi":"10.1016/j.jsr.2025.02.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsr.2025.02.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>Introduction</em>: Falls, a preventable worker-related injury, are major contributors to worker’s disability and death. In spite of this, there is relatively little analysis on snow or ice- related slips, trips and falls among workers in the workers’ compensation system. This analysis aimed to describe the frequency, characteristics, and occupational burden of snow or ice-related slip, trip, or fall (STF) claims in Wisconsin. <em>Methods:</em> This study is a descriptive analysis of working age adults’ snow or ice-related STF lost time claims during the months of October through April for the years 2016–2022. <em>Results:</em> A total of 7,385 claims were reported, which represented 33.1% of all STF injuries. The overall claim rate during the study period was 2.65 claims per 1,000 workers (95% CI: 2.60 – 2.71). Workers aged 45 years or more had the highest risk. Fracture of lower leg, including ankle (20.3%), intracranial injury (10.7%), and fracture of the forearm (7.3%) were the most frequent primary diagnoses among hospitalized cases or seen in the emergency room. The mean lost time was 11.8 weeks (range: 0.5 – 210.3 weeks). Transportation and Warehousing, Public Administration and Wholesale Trade industries had the highest burden. Occupations with the highest burden were Transportation and Material Moving, Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance, Installation, Maintenance, and Repair. Conclusions: Snow or ice-related STFs remain a common cause of injuries in cold weather and are particularly relevant for an aging workforce. <em>Practical Applications:</em> This analysis informs on the occupational burden of the snow or ice-related events on workers. It is important for preparedness and prevention efforts because of the frequency of unpredictable snow or ice events particularly in regions that are not used to it.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48224,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Safety Research","volume":"93 ","pages":"Pages 170-176"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143453412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Expectancy × value models of the relations between demographic, psychological, and situational factors and speeding behavior

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.02.012

Dustin Wood , Emmanuel Kofi Adanu , P.D. Harms

Introduction: This study illustrates how expectancy × value (E × V) models can be created from responses to driving scenarios to model both: (1) reasons for the general tendency to speed in a particular situation and (2) reasons that specific personal or situational factors predict the likelihood of speeding within that situation. Method: The method was applied to predicting the self-rated likelihood of speeding in a specific driving scenario. Data from 302 participants who completed an online survey were used for the analysis. Results: The E × V models indicated that the average person tended to see both reasons to speed in this situation, such as to arrive at a meeting on time, and reasons not to speed, such as to avoid a crash or speeding ticket. The results further clarify how specific personal and situational factors were associated with reasoning about speeding. For instance, people who described speeding regularly were modeled as more likely to speed in part due to their greater expectation that speeding would be enjoyable and their greater valuation of being on time. And people who described valuing rules were modeled as less likely to speed in part due to greater expectations that speeding would result in a crash or injury. Practical Applications: We describe how E × V models can be further elaborated to better represent the psychological processes and reasoning underlying speeding and other unsafe driving behaviors.

导言：本研究说明了如何通过对驾驶场景的反应建立期望值 × 价值（E × V）模型，从而为以下两方面建模：（1）在特定情况下超速的一般倾向的原因；（2）特定个人或情景因素预测在该情况下超速可能性的原因。方法：将该方法应用于预测在特定驾驶场景中超速的自评可能性。分析使用了 302 位完成在线调查的参与者的数据。结果：E × V 模型表明，一般人倾向于认为在这种情况下超速既有理由，如准时赴会，也有不超速的理由，如避免撞车或超速罚单。研究结果进一步阐明了特定的个人和情景因素与超速推理之间的关系。例如，描述经常超速的人被认为更有可能超速，部分原因是他们更期望超速会带来乐趣，也更重视准时。而描述重视规则的人超速的可能性较低，部分原因是他们更期望超速会导致撞车或受伤。实际应用：我们介绍了如何进一步完善 E × V 模型，以更好地反映超速和其他不安全驾驶行为背后的心理过程和推理。

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引用次数: 0

Identifying relevant patterns between injury crashes and road safety inspection deficiencies

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.02.014

Rubén Gutiérrez-Rodríguez , Eduardo Rojí , Jesús Cuadrado

Introduction: Crashes are the result of a complex interaction of many factors. However, the severity of injuries is often influenced by road conditions. Method: Data mining techniques, in particular Association Rule Mining (ARM), help to uncover non-trivial patterns in crash data, providing essential information for effective countermeasures to improve road safety and reduce crash severity. Using ARM, this study analyzes the relationship between crash severity and factors such as road deficiencies identified during safety inspections (Element Subject to Improvement or ESI) on two roads in Spain. Results: The primary findings reveal a strong link between vulnerable road users (pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists) and crash severity. These results align with the Strategic Plan of the Basque Country, which aims to reduce severe road injuries by 50% by 2030, identifying the need for specific interventions to protect this type of user. Pedestrian casualty crashes are linked to inadequate restraint systems, while bicycle-related crashes are associated with glare from road orientation, inadequate shoulders, and inappropriate barriers. Unchanneled access points on roads also pose risks for cyclists. For motorcycles, factors such as inadequate speed limitations, poor shoulder design, and obsolete or inadequate restraint systems are strongly associated with crash severity. Poor signage, illegible road markings, water accumulation, and inadequate transport stops further contribute to increased crash severity. Conclusions and practical applications: Based on these findings, key countermeasures should focus on protecting vulnerable road users. Recommendations include installing pedestrian-friendly barriers and clear pedestrian pathways, widening shoulders, implementing anti-glare barriers for cyclists, and adding motorcycle-friendly restraint systems. Dynamic speed controls and better road signage are critical for reducing risks to motorcyclists. Other important measures include improving drainage systems to prevent water accumulation and redesigning public transport stops for safer bus merging areas. These targeted interventions can significantly reduce crash severity and support broader road safety goals.

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引用次数: 0

The association of Public Safety Power Shutoffs and motor vehicle crashes

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.02.001

Alyson B. Harding , Gillian A.M. Tarr , Jesse D. Berman , Darin J. Erickson , Marizen R. Ramirez

Introduction: Utility companies in California de-energize equipment during periods of high wildfire risk. These Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS) are designed to prevent power lines from igniting wildfires. The loss of electricity and subsequent failure of traffic signals may increase the risk of motor-vehicle crashes. Methods: We determined the daily number of motor-vehicle crashes per county for all 58 California counties between September 15th and November 30th, 2019, a period of high wildfire risk. We obtained electrical circuit-level information from the California Public Utilities Commission and created two daily PSPS exposure metrics: the equivalent to (1) the number of utility customers and (2) the percent of households in the county without power for a full day. Exposure metrics were categorized into quartiles of households or population impacted by PSPS. We generated random effects negative binomial models to estimate the association between PSPS exposure quartile and motor-vehicle crashes at the county-day level. Results: We observed 522 county-days that experienced a PSPS event and 104,627 motor-vehicle crashes during our 77-day study period. Effect estimates from models using the two exposure metrics were similar. Higher levels of PSPS exposure were associated with slight decreases in the rate of motor-vehicle crashes. In the customer-day model, the highest level of PSPS exposure was associated with a 7% decrease in motor-vehicle crashes per 100,000 county residents (RR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.88–0.98) compared to days without PSPS. Conclusions: Despite the failure of traffic signals, road lighting, and other traffic safety equipment during power outages, the fall 2019 PSPS events were not associated with an increase in motor-vehicle crashes, potentially due to changes in driving habits and behavior. Practical Applications: PSPS may have unintentional consequences. Motor-vehicle safety during PSPS should be a focus of future monitoring efforts.

{"title":"The association of Public Safety Power Shutoffs and motor vehicle crashes","authors":"Alyson B. Harding , Gillian A.M. Tarr , Jesse D. Berman , Darin J. Erickson , Marizen R. Ramirez","doi":"10.1016/j.jsr.2025.02.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsr.2025.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>Introduction:</em> Utility companies in California de-energize equipment during periods of high wildfire risk. These Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS) are designed to prevent power lines from igniting wildfires. The loss of electricity and subsequent failure of traffic signals may increase the risk of motor-vehicle crashes. <em>Methods:</em> We determined the daily number of motor-vehicle crashes per county for all 58 California counties between September 15th and November 30th, 2019, a period of high wildfire risk. We obtained electrical circuit-level information from the California Public Utilities Commission and created two daily PSPS exposure metrics: the equivalent to (1) the number of utility customers and (2) the percent of households in the county without power for a full day. Exposure metrics were categorized into quartiles of households or population impacted by PSPS. We generated random effects negative binomial models to estimate the association between PSPS exposure quartile and motor-vehicle crashes at the county-day level. <em>Results</em>: We observed 522 county-days that experienced a PSPS event and 104,627 motor-vehicle crashes during our 77-day study period. Effect estimates from models using the two exposure metrics were similar. Higher levels of PSPS exposure were associated with slight decreases in the rate of motor-vehicle crashes. In the customer-day model, the highest level of PSPS exposure was associated with a 7% decrease in motor-vehicle crashes per 100,000 county residents (RR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.88–0.98) compared to days without PSPS. <em>Conclusions:</em> Despite the failure of traffic signals, road lighting, and other traffic safety equipment during power outages, the fall 2019 PSPS events were not associated with an increase in motor-vehicle crashes, potentially due to changes in driving habits and behavior. <em>Practical Applications:</em> PSPS may have unintentional consequences. Motor-vehicle safety during PSPS should be a focus of future monitoring efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48224,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Safety Research","volume":"93 ","pages":"Pages 148-155"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143445068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Direct and indirect effects of road attributes on traffic safety

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.02.017

Wookjae Yang , Sangjin Han

Introduction: Providing safe road infrastructure is increasingly gaining attention worldwide as part of the effort to reduce road deaths and injuries. Halving road fatalities by 2030 is one of the targets among the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. This study aims to understand how road traffic conditions, including vehicle speeds and volumes, mediate the relationship between road design and traffic safety. Method: In particular, the study relies on 78 road attributes pertaining to road design features, as published in the International Road Assessment Programme’s (iRAP) Star Rating and Investment Plan Manual. The star rating was conducted along a 68 km segment of a national highway in Korea, and these coded data were associated with both traffic and crash data. The traffic data, in this case, the average vehicle volume and speed, are sourced from the View-T platform in Korea. Crash data were obtained from Traffic Accident Analysis Systems in Korea. Results: The application of principal component analysis (PCA) identified three principal components—principal component (PC) 1 represents attributes related to pedestrians and roadside facilities, PC2 represents cross-sections and intersections, and PC3 represents attributes related to road surfaces and curvatures. In addition, piecewise structural equation modeling confirmed that PC1 is the only component that has a direct effect on the number of crashes. Practical applications: The finding suggests that pedestrian and roadside facilities easily added or removed during road operations are more critical than geometric attributes established at the road design stage. The study also confirms the indirect effects of the aspects of speed and volume on the likelihood of a crash.

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引用次数: 0

Belief-based predictors of portable pool safety behaviors among parents of young children

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-02-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.02.016

Kyra Hamilton , Jacob J. Keech , Amy E. Peden

Introduction: Swimming pools pose a significant drowning risk to young children, with little research investigating safety around portable pools. This study explores the beliefs Australian parents of children aged under 5 years hold toward portable pool safety behaviors. Methods: A two-phase online survey design guided by the belief-based framework of the theory of planned behavior was used. Phase 1 comprised open ended questions to identify parents’ (N = 50) modal salient beliefs regarding three portable pool safety behaviors: (1) supervising their child within arm’s reach; (2) ensuring adequate fencing for portable pools 300 mm and deeper; and (3) emptying and storing the pool safely when not in use. Phase 2 (N = 214) used a quantitative survey to examine the key behavioral, normative, and control beliefs predicting parents’ intentions regarding the three safety behaviors. Results: A range of beliefs that impact parents’ intentions for each of the three safety behaviors for portable pools were identified. These included, for example, behavioral beliefs around teaching water skills and preventing drowning/injury; normative beliefs of approval from family members; and control beliefs around time and ease. Differences in beliefs informing intentions across the three safety behaviors were also observed. Conclusions: Findings provide valuable insights into the beliefs parents hold regarding keeping their young children safe around portable pools. This knowledge can be used to inform education and awareness raising initiatives for parents of young children regarding portable pool safety, specifically targeting these identified beliefs to improve compliance. Practical Implications: Efforts of drowning prevention organizations and product and consumer safety authorities should prioritize these beliefs in messaging to foster parents’ intentions to comply with portable pool safety behaviors.

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引用次数: 0

A scientometric analysis of three decades of research on workplace psychosocial hazards: Implications for policy and practice 对三十年来工作场所社会心理危害研究的科学计量分析：对政策和实践的影响

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.02.011

Subas P. Dhakal , Muhammad N. Mahmood

Introduction: The Workplace Psychosocial Hazards (WPH) agenda has gained policy currency in the context of the United Nations’ 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For instance, SDG#8 explicitly aims to protect labor rights and promote safe and secure working environments for all workers under the umbrella term of decent work. More importantly, WPH has become a significant priority of workplace health and safety management (WHSM) practices because of the high cost associated with workers’ well-being and reduced productivity and performance. Nevertheless, a comprehensive analysis of WPH-related literature remains scant. Method: This article responds to this gap and analyses scholarly research outputs between 1993 and 2022 available in the Scopus database (n = 521) with two specific objectives: (a) to identify key research trends, key focus areas, collaboration networks, and prominent research institutions/countries and (b) generate insights into informing workplace safety and health management (WSHM) practices and future research. Results: The analysis revealed that the research topics with the most emphasis were occupational health, mental health and stress. In contrast, topics such as policy assessment, sustainable development, and shift work received the least attention. Practical Applications: Given that the scientometrics analysis has the potential to inform the WPH agenda, this article contributes to the discussions on three thematic implications of the analysis in the context of future research directions: (a) policy initiatives, (b) WHSM practices, and (c) research partnerships.

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引用次数: 0

Safety in high-reliability organizations: The role of upward voice, team learning, and safety climate

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-02-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.02.002

Inmaculada Silla , Julie-Anne Gajudo , Francisco J. Gracia

Introduction: Maintaining and sustaining safety is extremely critical in high-reliability organizations. Upward voice contributes to a proactive approach to safety and allows the early identification of potential problems before they cascade into tragic consequences. Despite its relevance, research tends to focus on the antecedents of upward voice rather than its consequences or the mechanisms and boundary conditions that explain its potential benefits for safety. Method: This study responds to this research gap by examining the relationship between upward voice and safety performance, and the mediating role of team learning in this relationship. The current study also explores the moderating effect of safety climate on the direct effect of upward voice on team learning. Additionally, it examines how this moderation influences the indirect effect of upward voice on safety performance through team learning. The sample was composed of 617 workers from two nuclear power plants of the same organization. Results: Results revealed a moderated mediation effect: the indirect effect of upward voice on safety performance through team learning was conditional upon the level of safety climate. As safety climate increases, the indirect positive effect becomes stronger.

导言：在高可靠性组织中，维护和保持安全至关重要。上行声音有助于积极主动地处理安全问题，并能在潜在问题演变成悲剧性后果之前及早发现。尽管上行声音与安全息息相关，但相关研究往往侧重于上行声音的前因，而非其后果或解释其对安全的潜在益处的机制和边界条件。研究方法：本研究针对这一研究空白，探讨了上行声音与安全绩效之间的关系，以及团队学习在这一关系中的中介作用。本研究还探讨了安全氛围对上行声音对团队学习的直接影响的调节作用。此外，本研究还探讨了这种调节作用如何通过团队学习影响上行声音对安全绩效的间接影响。样本由来自同一组织的两家核电厂的 617 名工人组成。研究结果结果显示了一种调节中介效应：上行声音通过团队学习对安全绩效的间接影响取决于安全氛围水平。随着安全氛围的提高，间接积极效应会变得更强。

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引用次数: 0