Journal of Safety Research最新文献_第9页

On the road to school: A naturalistic study of adolescent bicyclist route safety 上学路上：青少年骑自行车路线安全的自然主义研究

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.08.006

Amir Ghanbari , Steven Spears , Beyza Cikmaz , Joseph Cavanaugh , Cara Hamann

Background: The rate of active transportation to school has significantly declined in recent decades. Safety concerns are a primary factor contributing to this decrease. This study aims to identify factors that impact the safety of students’ bicycling chosen route including environmental features, social factors, as well as student and parent characteristics. Additionally, the study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of navigational applications such as Google Maps and Komoot in recommending safe cycling routes. Method: The study sample included 32 adolescents (10–15 years old) and one parent/guardian for each of the adolescents. The dataset consisted of GPS and video data recorded by helmet cameras during students’ bicycle trips to school. Furthermore, baseline surveys provided demographic information and bicycling habits from both adolescents and parents. To compare different routes, a safety score was calculated, derived from environmental factors, traffic conditions, and geometric features. Linear Mixed Models (LMM) were used to examine the relationship between potential predictors including adolescents and parents’ demographics and environmental characteristics and the safety score assigned to each route. Results: Younger students and those living in a more bike-friendly neighborhood chose safer routes to school. Participants rode on sidewalks more often when taking routes with lower safety scores, most likely to avoid traffic. Additionally, routes suggested by Komoot and the actual routes taken by students were safer than those suggested by Google Maps bike routing. Conclusion: The study’s findings emphasized the significance of bike infrastructure in improving the safety of young bicyclists and increasing the rate of active transportation to school. It also highlights the critical role of safety interventions and parents guiding their children in safe bicycling behaviors, as well as children learning and applying safe route selection skills. Practical Application: Enhancing bike infrastructure and refining navigational apps to prioritize safer routes can improve student cycling safety.

背景：近几十年来，主动交通工具上学的比率显著下降。安全问题是导致这一下降的主要因素。本研究旨在找出影响学生选择骑行路线安全性的因素，包括环境特征、社会因素以及学生和家长特征。此外，该研究旨在评估导航应用程序（如谷歌Maps和Komoot）在推荐安全骑行路线方面的有效性。方法：研究对象为32名10 ~ 15岁青少年，每名青少年1名家长/监护人。该数据集包括GPS和头盔摄像头在学生骑自行车上学时记录的视频数据。此外，基线调查提供了青少年和父母的人口统计信息和骑自行车习惯。为了比较不同的路线，根据环境因素、交通状况和几何特征计算出一个安全分数。使用线性混合模型（LMM）来检验潜在预测因子（包括青少年和父母的人口统计学和环境特征）与分配给每条路线的安全评分之间的关系。结果：年龄较小的学生和居住在更适合骑自行车的社区的学生选择了更安全的上学路线。当参与者选择安全得分较低的路线时，他们更经常在人行道上骑行，因为这些路线最有可能避开交通堵塞。此外，Komoot建议的路线和学生实际采取的路线比谷歌地图建议的自行车路线更安全。结论：研究结果强调了自行车基础设施在提高青少年骑自行车者的安全性和提高主动交通上学率方面的重要性。它还强调了安全干预措施和家长指导孩子安全骑自行车行为以及儿童学习和应用安全路线选择技能的关键作用。实际应用：加强自行车基础设施和改进导航应用程序，优先考虑更安全的路线，可以提高学生骑自行车的安全性。

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引用次数: 0

Role of trait impulsivity in distracted driving and walking: A Cluster analysis 特质冲动在分心驾驶与行走中的作用：聚类分析

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.08.004

Yusuke Hayashi , Paul Romanowich , Jonathan M. Hochmuth , Oliver Wirth

Introduction: The present study examined whether college students could be categorized into distinct subgroups that differed in their distracted driving and walking frequencies. Method: A sample of 277 college students participated in this study. They completed an online survey measuring their frequencies of distracted driving and walking, trait impulsivity (relatively stable characteristics of individuals to act spontaneously without considering the potential consequences), and behavioral impulsivity (process-oriented construct reflecting impulsive decision-making). Using hierarchical cluster analysis with component scores derived from a principal component analysis for distracted driving and walking frequencies, the following four subgroups were identified and named based on relative differences in frequencies: (a) the Low-Distraction subgroup, (b) the Distracted-Walking subgroup, (c) the Distracted-Driving subgroup, and (d) the High-Distraction subgroup. These subgroups were then compared to the extent to which they differed in levels of trait and behavioral impulsivity. Results: The results of the multinomial regression analyses, including cell phone use as a covariate, revealed that the differences between the Low-Distraction subgroup and other subgroups were significantly predicted by increased attentional impulsivity for other subgroups. Additionally, the difference between the Distracted-Walking and High-Distraction subgroups was significantly predicted by increased motor impulsivity for the High-Distraction subgroup. Implications for new intervention strategies targeting these impulsivity processes are discussed in relation to existing intervention strategies.

引言：本研究考察了大学生是否可以被划分为不同的亚组，这些亚组在开车和走路时分心的频率不同。方法：对277名在校大学生进行问卷调查。他们完成了一项在线调查，测量了他们分心开车和走路的频率、特质冲动性（个人自发行动而不考虑潜在后果的相对稳定的特征）和行为冲动性（反映冲动性决策的过程导向结构）。通过对分心驾驶和分心步行频率的主成分分析得出的成分得分进行层次聚类分析，根据频率的相对差异确定并命名了以下四个亚组：(a)低分心亚组，(b)分心步行亚组，(c)分心驾驶亚组和(d)高分心亚组。然后比较这些小组在特质和行为冲动水平上的差异程度。结果：包括手机使用作为协变量在内的多项回归分析结果显示，低分心亚组与其他亚组之间的差异可以通过其他亚组的注意冲动性增加来显著预测。此外，行走分心和高度分心亚组之间的差异可以通过高度分心亚组运动冲动的增加来显著预测。针对这些冲动性过程的新干预策略的含义与现有的干预策略进行了讨论。

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引用次数: 0

Medical conditions affecting physical capabilities and adverse driving outcomes: An evidence and gap map 影响身体能力和不良驾驶结果的医疗状况：证据和差距图

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.08.002

Joan Margaret O’Donnell , Weixin Xu , Chen-Chun Shu , Muhammed Rashid Issa , Beth Cheal , Julie Brown

Introduction: Some medical conditions may be associated with increased risks of collision and poor performance while driving. Traffic crashes could result in fatalities and injuries. The Australian national medical guidelines do not provide specific instructions for all medical conditions. Clear and high levels of evidence are needed to guide health practitioners’ decision-making processes on medical fitness to drive. Objective: An Evidence and Gap Map (EGM) was conducted to synthesize recent evidence on medical conditions and adverse driving outcomes, which aims to identify available evidence and research priorities. Methods: A search of five academic databases was performed to identify relevant studies; the search involved studies published from June 2009 to February 2022. Cognitive disorders, visual disorders, medication-related conditions, psychiatric conditions, alcohol and drug abuse, and surgical procedures were excluded. The screening was carried out to include eligible studies of physical conditions. A visualized EGM and a descriptive report were produced. Reports included levels of evidence, distribution of evidence about medical conditions, driving outcomes, and geographic locations of included studies. Results: Yielded 16,297 records and 81 eligible primary studies were obtained. Evidence was unevenly distributed by medical conditions, driving outcomes, and geographical locations. Limited studies have been conducted on blackouts, hearing loss and deafness, and musculoskeletal conditions. Neurological conditions were predominant in included studies. The majority of included studies were Level III evidence and Level IV evidence, and the most common study design was observational study. Most included studies were conducted in the Americas and Europe. Major research gaps were recognized in this EGM. One of the main gaps is the lack of evidence of blackouts, hearing loss and deafness, and musculoskeletal disorders. The need for high levels of evidence was identified, particularly the need for prospective cohort studies. Future research priorities were recognized in this EGM.

导读：一些身体状况可能会增加碰撞的风险和驾驶时表现不佳。交通事故可能导致伤亡。澳大利亚国家医疗指南没有对所有医疗条件提供具体说明。需要明确和高水平的证据来指导卫生从业人员对医疗健身驱动的决策过程。目的：开展证据和差距图（EGM），以综合有关医疗状况和不良驾驶结果的最新证据，旨在确定现有证据和研究重点。方法：检索5个学术数据库，筛选相关研究；这项研究涉及从2009年6月到2022年2月发表的研究。排除了认知障碍、视觉障碍、药物相关疾病、精神疾病、酒精和药物滥用以及外科手术。筛选包括符合条件的身体状况研究。生成了可视化的EGM和描述性报告。报告包括证据水平、关于医疗状况的证据分布、驱动结果和纳入研究的地理位置。结果：共获得16297条记录，81项符合条件的初步研究。根据医疗条件、驱动结果和地理位置，证据分布不均匀。对昏厥、听力损失和耳聋以及肌肉骨骼疾病进行了有限的研究。在纳入的研究中，神经系统疾病占主导地位。大多数纳入的研究为III级证据和IV级证据，最常见的研究设计为观察性研究。大多数纳入的研究是在美洲和欧洲进行的。主要的研究差距在本次环境评估中得到了承认。其中一个主要的缺陷是缺乏关于昏厥、听力损失和耳聋以及肌肉骨骼疾病的证据。需要高水平的证据，特别是需要前瞻性队列研究。未来的研究重点在本次评估中得到确认。

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引用次数: 0

A systematic review on the factors associated with the accuracy of self-estimated alcohol intoxication: Implications for drink driving 对与自我估计酒精中毒的准确性相关的因素的系统回顾：对酒后驾驶的影响

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.08.005

Steven Love, Gregoire S. Larue

Introduction: Drink driving is a dangerous behavior associated with significant road trauma. The ability to estimate one’s alcohol plays an important role in the decision to drink and drive. This systematic review aimed to synthesize the evidence regarding what factors are associated with the accuracy of self-estimated blood and breath alcohol concentrations (BAC/BrAC) and discuss relevant implications for drink driving. Method: Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses, a literature search was conducted on four databases, followed by a manual search using Google Scholar. The identified studies (N = 999) were then screened by two researchers using predetermined eligibility criteria. Studies were eligible for review if they were quantitative by design, contained both subjective and objective measures of alcohol intoxication (BAC/BrAC), and investigated at least one factor that influenced the accuracy of BAC/BrAC estimations. Following screening, data from 22 original research articles were extracted and synthesized. Results: The review identified several potential factors that may influence the accuracy of BAC/BrAC estimations. Notably, younger age, heavy alcohol use, and greater alcohol intoxication were found to be potentially associated with BAC/BrAC estimation inaccuracy and a tendency to underestimate BAC/BrAC. However, there were also many conflicting findings between the studies, which were attributed to a lack of standardization in the methodology and potential sampling biases. Practical Applications: The findings of this review and any subsequent research hold significant implications for informing future initiatives aimed at improving public safety and reducing alcohol-related harm. However, further empirical research with standardized and robust methodology is needed to clarify the role that both known and novel factors play in the accurate estimation of alcohol intoxication and subsequent drink driving behavior.

酒驾是一种与严重道路创伤相关的危险行为。估计酒精含量的能力在酒后驾车的决定中起着重要作用。本系统综述旨在综合与自我估计血液和呼吸酒精浓度（BAC/BrAC）准确性相关的因素的证据，并讨论对酒后驾驶的相关影响。方法：根据系统评价和荟萃分析的首选报告项目，在四个数据库中进行文献检索，然后使用谷歌Scholar进行人工检索。确定的研究（N = 999）然后由两名研究人员使用预定的资格标准进行筛选。如果研究是定量设计的，包含酒精中毒（BAC/BrAC）的主观和客观测量，并且调查了至少一个影响BAC/BrAC估计准确性的因素，则有资格进行评价。经过筛选，提取和合成了22篇原始研究文章的数据。结果：本综述确定了几个可能影响BAC/BrAC估计准确性的潜在因素。值得注意的是，年龄较小、大量饮酒和严重的酒精中毒被发现可能与BAC/BrAC估计不准确和低估BAC/BrAC的倾向有关。然而，研究之间也有许多相互矛盾的发现，这归因于方法缺乏标准化和潜在的抽样偏差。实际应用：本综述和任何后续研究的结果对旨在改善公共安全和减少酒精相关危害的未来举措具有重要意义。然而，需要用标准化和可靠的方法进行进一步的实证研究，以澄清已知因素和新因素在准确估计酒精中毒和随后的酒后驾驶行为中所起的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Behavior change associated with using partial automation among three samples of drivers during a 4-week field trial 在为期4周的现场试验中，三个驾驶员样本中使用部分自动化相关的行为变化

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-08-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.07.001

Ian J. Reagan , Jessica B. Cicchino , Eric R. Teoh , Pnina Gershon , Bryan Reimer , Bruce Mehler

Introduction: Partial automation is still evolving. There is need to understand how behavior changes over time as drivers develop familiarity with the technology. In Reagan et al. (2021; Transportation Research Part F, 82), volunteers driving a Volvo S90 with adaptive cruise control (ACC) and Pilot Assist, which couples ACC and continuous lane centering, had higher likelihood of visual-manual disengagement when using Pilot Assist in the second portion of a 4-week field trial compared with manual driving or when driving with Pilot Assist in the first portion. Method: We used the same analytical approach as Reagan et al. with three samples of drivers (n_A = 10, n_B= 10, n_C= 9). We estimated the odds of observing visual-manual distractions or both hands off the wheel across automation mode (manual [no automation], ACC, Pilot Assist) and study period (period 1, weeks 1 and 2; period 2, weeks 3 and 4). Results: Participants exhibited higher odds of distraction or driving hands-free in period 2 when using Pilot Assist relative to manual driving, but patterns differed across the groups. Pilot Assist use among groups A and B was associated with higher odds in period 2 relative to 1, whereas group C exhibited a high level of visual-manual distraction and hands-free driving with Pilot Assist throughout data collection. Discussion: Results suggest drivers show less attention to the road with the partial automation versions we tested compared with manual driving. Initial time using the technology appears to be associated with behavioral adaptation for many drivers new to the technology, but high exposure to the operational domain where the system performs well may support the more immediate increase in visual-manual distractions evidenced among group C, which was unexpected based on prior work and makes an even stronger argument for driver-monitoring solutions that ensure adequate attention to the road.

部分自动化仍在发展中。我们需要了解，随着驾驶员逐渐熟悉这项技术，他们的行为会发生怎样的变化。在Reagan等人(2021；Transportation Research Part F, 82)，在一项为期四周的现场试验中，志愿者驾驶一辆带有自适应巡航控制系统（ACC）和驾驶员辅助系统的沃尔沃S90，该系统将ACC和连续车道居中相结合，在第二部分使用驾驶员辅助系统时，与手动驾驶或在第一部分使用驾驶员辅助系统时相比，视觉-手动脱离的可能性更高。方法：我们使用与Reagan等人相同的分析方法，对三个驾驶员样本（nA = 10, nB = 10, nC = 9）进行分析。我们估计了在自动化模式（手动[无自动化]，ACC，驾驶员辅助）和研究期间(第1期，第1周和第2周；第2期，第3周和第4周)。结果：与手动驾驶相比，在第二阶段使用驾驶员辅助时，参与者表现出更高的分心或免提驾驶的可能性，但不同组之间的模式有所不同。A组和B组在第二阶段使用Pilot Assist的几率比第一阶段高，而C组在整个数据收集过程中表现出高度的视觉-手动分心和使用Pilot Assist的免提驾驶。讨论：结果表明，与手动驾驶相比，我们测试的部分自动化版本的驾驶员对道路的关注较少。对于许多刚接触这项技术的司机来说，最初使用这项技术的时间似乎与行为适应有关，但在系统表现良好的操作领域中，高暴露可能会支持C组中视觉-手动分心的更直接增加，这是基于先前工作的意外结果，并且更有力地证明了驾驶员监控解决方案可以确保对道路的充分关注。

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引用次数: 0

Risk-field assessment for signalized intersections using surrogate safety measure 基于替代安全措施的信号交叉口风险场评价

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.07.003

S.L. Jeena, Sheela Alex, Padmakumar Radhakrishnan

Introduction: Traffic signals are the controlling devices aimed to reduce crossing conflicts at intersections. However, rear-end and lane-changing conflicts at signalized intersection approaches are a significant problem. This work aims to proactively assess and spatially map the safety and risk at signalized intersection approaches by field data collection and microsimulation modeling using PTV-VISSIM^TM. Method: Three signalized intersections operating under mixed traffic conditions were selected and traffic data were collected from the field using video cameras. Post Encroachment Time (PET) was selected as the surrogate safety measure for data analysis. Critical PET values were obtained for each vehicle category by drawing cumulative frequency distribution plots. Microsimulation of the intersections was done using PTV-VISSIM^TM and the simulated trajectory data were exported to Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM). Risk-field models were then developed for different signal change intervals based on the number of critical conflicts. Results: Risk was found to be minimum near the stop-line. From the perspective of a driver approaching signalized intersection, as distance to stop-line reduces, risk increases up to a maximum value and then decreases as the driver gets closer to the stop-line. The location at which maximum risk occurs varies with intersections depending on its geometric and traffic characteristics. High risk area for all intersections was observed to be on middle lane, while considering the entire signal cycle and while considering green time alone. The high-risk area is found to shift toward the median-side lane while considering red time alone. While evaluating safety, it was observed that high-risk area shifts away from the intersection during green signal and shifts toward the intersection during red signal, compared to the risk during the entire signal cycle.

交通信号灯是为了减少十字路口的交叉冲突而设计的控制装置。然而，在信号交叉口进场时，追尾和变道冲突是一个重要的问题。本研究旨在通过现场数据收集和PTV-VISSIMTM的微观模拟建模，主动评估和空间映射信号交叉口的安全性和风险。方法：选取混合交通条件下运行的3个信号交叉口，采用摄像机采集现场交通数据。选择入侵后时间（PET）作为替代安全措施进行数据分析。通过绘制累计频率分布图得到各车型的临界PET值。利用PTV-VISSIMTM软件对交叉口进行微观仿真，仿真轨迹数据导出到代理安全评估模型（SSAM）中。基于临界冲突的数量，建立了不同信号变化区间的风险场模型。结果：停止线附近风险最小。从接近信号交叉口的驾驶员的角度来看，随着距离停车线的减小，风险增加到最大值，然后随着驾驶员靠近停车线而减小。在不同的十字路口，由于其几何和交通特性的不同，发生最大风险的位置也不同。在考虑整个信号周期和单独考虑绿灯时间时，观察到所有交叉口的高风险区域都在中间车道上。在单独考虑红色时间时，发现高风险区域向中间车道偏移。在安全性评价中，与整个信号周期的风险区相比，在绿灯信号时，高危区向交叉口外移动，在红灯信号时，高危区向交叉口内移动。

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引用次数: 0

When work stays in the family: Parent–child employment configurations, safety communication, and young workers’ injury risk 当工作留在家庭：亲子就业配置、安全沟通与年轻工人的伤害风险

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.06.033

Mariyam Rabbani , Anna Merrifield , Steve Granger , Nick Turner

Introduction: This study examines how specific parent–child employment configurations shape family safety communication and injury risk among young workers in family-owned businesses. Method: Drawing on cross-domain multiplex theory (Methot et al., 2024), we analyze survey data from 2,275 young workers (M age = 16.45; 49.9% female) in Ontario, Canada, distinguishing among four relational work arrangements: working for parents, working with parents, working both for and with parents, and working neither for nor with parents. Results: Although thicker multiplex ties were expected to strengthen safety communication and reduce injury risk, working for parents was associated with less frequent family safety communication, and safety communication did not mediate the relationship between work configuration and lost-time injury. However, young workers who worked for or both for and with their parents were significantly more likely to report work-related injuries than those working outside of family relationships. Practical applications: These findings challenge assumptions about the protective nature of family business employment, illustrate how relational structures can both enable and constrain safety communication, and highlight the need for targeted safety supports for higher-risk parent–child work arrangements.

引言：本研究探讨了特定的亲子就业配置如何影响家族企业中年轻工人的家庭安全沟通和伤害风险。方法：利用跨领域多元理论（Methot et al., 2024），对2275名年轻员工(M年龄= 16.45；（49.9%女性），区分了四种关系工作安排：为父母工作、与父母一起工作、既为父母工作又与父母一起工作、既不为父母工作也不与父母一起工作。结果：虽然较厚的多重关系有望加强安全沟通，降低伤害风险，但为父母工作的家庭安全沟通频率较低，安全沟通并没有调解工作配置与失时伤害之间的关系。然而，与那些没有家庭关系的年轻人相比，为父母工作或与父母一起工作的年轻人更有可能报告工伤。实际应用：这些发现挑战了关于家族企业雇佣保护性质的假设，说明了关系结构如何能够促进和限制安全沟通，并强调了对高风险亲子工作安排有针对性的安全支持的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

You can’t have your cake and eat it too: the paradox of the American public supporting road safety but reluctant to pay the price – evidence from a discrete choice experiment 鱼与熊掌不可兼得：美国公众支持道路安全却不愿为此付出代价的悖论——来自一项离散选择实验的证据

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.06.020

Emmanuel F. Drabo , Johnathon P. Ehsani , Shannon Frattaroli , Keshia M. Pollack Porter , Jeffrey P. Michael

Background: An estimated 44,680 people died in motor-vehicle crashes in the United States in 2024. A disproportionate share of these deaths involved young people. In 2023 alone, these crashes cost the U.S. $48 billion and $457 billion among adolescents aged 13-19 and in the entire population, respectively. The Safe System approach aims to improve roadway safety through safer drivers, roads, vehicles, speeds, and optimal post-crash care. Despite its effectiveness and federal investments, U.S. adoption lags other countries. Understanding public attitudes could enhance uptake. Objectives: To identify factors influencing the American public’s commitment to road safety and quantify preferences for speed reductions—a key element of the Safe System approach—using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Methods: A DCE survey was administered to 2,274 participants (≥18 years) from the National Opinion Research Center’s (NORC) AmeriSpeak panel, to assess preferences for speed limit changes (10-mph reduction, no change, 10-mph increase), public spending on road safety versus healthier water, and resulting annual traffic deaths (25 more, no change, 25 fewer). Multinomial and random parameter logit models estimated preference weights. Results: Data from 2,060 participants (mean age 47.1 years) were analyzed. Most were non-Hispanic White (62.4%), had a bachelor’s degree (46.1 %), and were employed (61.8%). There was significant support for policy change (odds ratio 0.18; 95% confidence interval 0.14–0.23). Respondents favored reducing fatalities but opposed lowering speed limits. They would accept a 10-mph speed reduction for six fewer fatal crashes. Public spending on road safety versus healthier water was a key trade-off. Conclusions: Our findings highlight public support for speed limit reductions when they effectively reduce fatalities but reveal reluctance toward increased spending. Policymakers should emphasize safety benefits to ensure public acceptance.

背景：据估计，2024年美国有44,680人死于机动车事故。这些死亡中不成比例的是年轻人。仅在2023年，美国13-19岁青少年和整个人口的交通事故成本分别为480亿美元和4570亿美元。安全系统方法旨在通过更安全的驾驶员、道路、车辆、速度和最佳的碰撞后护理来改善道路安全。尽管其有效性和联邦政府的投资，美国的应用仍落后于其他国家。了解公众的态度可以提高接受度。目的：利用离散选择实验（DCE）确定影响美国公众对道路安全承诺的因素，并量化对减速的偏好——安全系统方法的一个关键要素。方法：对来自国家意见研究中心（NORC） AmeriSpeak小组的2274名参与者（≥18岁）进行了DCE调查，以评估对限速变化的偏好（减少10英里/小时，不变，增加10英里/小时），道路安全与更健康的水的公共支出，以及由此导致的年度交通死亡人数（增加25人，不变，减少25人）。多项和随机参数logit模型估计偏好权重。结果：分析了2060名参与者（平均年龄47.1岁）的数据。大多数是非西班牙裔白人（62.4%），拥有学士学位（46.1%），有工作（61.8%）。对政策改变的支持显著(优势比0.18；95%置信区间0.14-0.23)。受访者赞成减少死亡人数，但反对降低限速。他们愿意接受每小时10英里的速度降低，以减少6起致命事故。在道路安全方面的公共支出与更健康的水是一个关键的权衡。结论：我们的研究结果强调了公众对降低限速的支持，当它们有效地减少了死亡人数，但显示出对增加支出的不情愿。决策者应强调安全效益，以确保公众接受。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the importance of functional form selection in developing calibration functions for the highway safety manual predictive models 评估功能形式选择在开发公路安全手册预测模型校准函数中的重要性

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-07-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.06.022

Madeline Blair , Srinivas Reddy Geedipally , Mohammadali Shirazi

Introduction: The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) offers crash prediction models for estimating the number and severity of crashes for several facility types. However, since these models were developed using data from selected states within the United States, they should be calibrated when applied to a new jurisdiction. The HSM recommended using a scalar calibration factor to calibrate the prediction models. Recently, researchers proposed using a calibration function, instead of a factor, to calibrate the models. The calibration function can also be derived using explanatory variables, such as traffic flow or segment length. However, it is not clear what functional forms (or parameterizations) should be considered in developing calibration functions, and if the selection of the functional form is important when the sample size is small. Method: We considered 12 functional forms to develop calibration functions for datasets collected on multi-lane freeways in Texas and compared their performance using the goodness-of-fit metrics. Results: We found that with a large and complete sample, a more complex function (with flow, and segment length) could produce a better fit. As the sample size reduces, simpler functions such as those developed with only the segment length as a variable produce better results. Conclusion: The application and assessment of most of the functional forms evaluated in this study proved to be useful and should be considered depending on data or available sample size. Practical application: Calibration is a crucial step to ensure HSM models are adopted to the local conditions of the jurisdiction under consideration. Our results show that the choice of functional form is important and should be considered by practitioners when calibrating the HSM models.

导论：高速公路安全手册（HSM）提供了碰撞预测模型，用于估计几种设施类型的碰撞数量和严重程度。但是，由于这些模型是使用美国境内选定州的数据开发的，因此在应用于新的司法管辖区时应进行校准。HSM建议使用标量校准因子来校准预测模型。最近，研究人员提出使用校准函数而不是因子来校准模型。校准函数也可以使用解释变量推导，如交通流量或路段长度。然而，目前尚不清楚在开发校准函数时应考虑哪些函数形式（或参数化），以及当样本量较小时，函数形式的选择是否重要。方法：我们考虑了12种函数形式，为德克萨斯州多车道高速公路收集的数据集开发校准函数，并使用拟合优度指标比较了它们的性能。结果：我们发现，对于一个大而完整的样本，一个更复杂的函数（包括流量和片段长度）可以产生更好的拟合。随着样本量的减少，一些更简单的函数（例如仅以片段长度为变量开发的函数）会产生更好的结果。结论：本研究中评估的大多数功能形式的应用和评估证明是有用的，应根据数据或可用的样本量进行考虑。实际应用：校准是确保HSM模型适用于所考虑的司法管辖区的当地条件的关键步骤。我们的研究结果表明，函数形式的选择是重要的，应该被从业者在校准HSM模型时考虑。

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引用次数: 0

Nighttime Pedestrian Safety in Different Communities: Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques 不同社区夜间行人安全：人工智能技术的应用

IF 3.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Journal of Safety Research

Pub Date : 2025-07-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2025.06.028

Sheikh M. Usman, Asad J. Khattak, A. Latif Patwary

Introduction: Pedestrian safety is a growing concern in the United States transportation sector, with around 7,500 pedestrian crash fatalities reported in the United States in recent years. Pedestrians are at an even higher risk of crashes at night due to limited visibility and alcohol impairment of the drivers or pedestrians. The U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) has integrated six unique indicators (Economy, Health, Language Proficiency, Resilience, Environmental, and Transportation Access) at the census tract level to promote safety and achieve its Vision Zero goal. This study integrates these six indicators with pedestrian crash data from 2016 to 2019 in North Carolina. The pedestrian crash data are extracted from police reports using the Pedestrian and Bicyclist Crash Analysis Tool, which provides high-quality, detailed crash-type descriptors, resulting in a unique and comprehensive pedestrian crash database. Methods: The study applies rigorous methods for analysis, including the inference-based ordered logit model, to quantify key correlates of nighttime pedestrian crash injury severity in communities. To improve forecasting of pedestrian crashes and the resulting injury severity for planning purposes, an Artificial Intelligence (AI) based heterogeneous ensemble method, “Stacking,” is applied with an Ordered Logit model and machine-learning techniques, Gradient Boosting, Decision Tree, and Random Forest as the base learners. Results: The stacked model integrates the predictive advantages of the base learner models and yields better predictive accuracy (78.85%) than the best-performing base learner (73.56%). The model results reveal associations between the Economy and Transportation Access indicators, roads without lights, pedestrian crossing violations, alcohol impairment, and nighttime pedestrian crash injury severity. Conclusions and Practical Applications: The study findings and the application of AI methods can assist safety practitioners in implementing targeted interventions to improve roadway infrastructure and overall road user safety.

导读：行人安全是美国交通部门日益关注的问题，近年来，美国约有7500名行人因车祸死亡。由于驾驶员或行人的能见度有限和酒精损害，行人在夜间发生撞车事故的风险更高。美国交通部（USDOT）在人口普查区层面整合了六个独特的指标（经济、健康、语言能力、复原力、环境和交通通道），以促进安全并实现其“零愿景”目标。本研究将这六个指标与北卡罗来纳州2016年至2019年的行人碰撞数据相结合。行人碰撞数据是从警方报告中提取的，使用行人和骑自行车者碰撞分析工具，该工具提供高质量，详细的碰撞类型描述符，从而形成独特而全面的行人碰撞数据库。方法：本研究采用严格的分析方法，包括基于推理的有序logit模型，量化社区夜间行人碰撞伤害严重程度的关键相关因素。为了提高对行人碰撞和由此导致的伤害严重程度的预测，以规划为目的，基于人工智能（AI）的异构集成方法“堆叠”应用于有序Logit模型和机器学习技术，梯度增强，决策树和随机森林作为基础学习器。结果：堆叠模型综合了基础学习器模型的预测优势，预测准确率（78.85%）高于表现最好的基础学习器模型（73.56%）。模型结果揭示了经济和交通通道指标、无灯道路、行人过街违规、酒精损害和夜间行人碰撞伤害严重程度之间的关联。结论和实际应用：研究结果和人工智能方法的应用可以帮助安全从业人员实施有针对性的干预措施，以改善道路基础设施和整体道路使用者安全。

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引用次数: 0