Pub Date : 2025-01-20DOI: 10.1177/00223433241276975
Robert Brathwaite, Shanshan Lian, Amanda Murdie, Baekkwan Park
In the last decade, international relations scholarship on shaming by non-governmental organizations has grown dramatically, providing us with many insights into how country-level improvement occurs in the areas of human rights and the environment, among other issues. Using machine learning techniques, this project built an updated dataset on NGO shaming from almost 1.5 million articles in the media from 2001 to 2020. The dataset covers a wide set of organizations with goals outside of the traditional focus on human rights. Our approach will allow researchers to explicitly examine shaming as a dyadic event, occurring from a specific NGO sender to a specific country target. Using our new dataset, we first validated existing research on shaming in the current populist era and then examined how the nature of the NGO and the nature of the country jointly facilitated shaming. Our approach and dataset will be useful to both academics and to the policy community.
{"title":"Tailoring the message: A new dataset on the dyadic nature of NGO shaming in the media","authors":"Robert Brathwaite, Shanshan Lian, Amanda Murdie, Baekkwan Park","doi":"10.1177/00223433241276975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241276975","url":null,"abstract":"In the last decade, international relations scholarship on shaming by non-governmental organizations has grown dramatically, providing us with many insights into how country-level improvement occurs in the areas of human rights and the environment, among other issues. Using machine learning techniques, this project built an updated dataset on NGO shaming from almost 1.5 million articles in the media from 2001 to 2020. The dataset covers a wide set of organizations with goals outside of the traditional focus on human rights. Our approach will allow researchers to explicitly examine shaming as a dyadic event, occurring from a specific NGO sender to a specific country target. Using our new dataset, we first validated existing research on shaming in the current populist era and then examined how the nature of the NGO and the nature of the country jointly facilitated shaming. Our approach and dataset will be useful to both academics and to the policy community.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"394 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142991253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-31DOI: 10.1177/00223433241292143
Ivor Sokolić, Denisa Kostovicova, Lanabi La Lova, Sanja Vico
Fairness of domestic war crimes trials matters for promoting justice and peace. Scholars have studied public perceptions of war crimes trials to assess their fairness, but little is known about whether post-conflict states conduct them fairly. Bias, as a matter of procedural fairness, can manifest as a tendency to favour certain groups over others. Leveraging the theories of judicial decisionmaking, this article investigates two types of bias. The first is in-group bias, which is associated with protection of in-group members and punishment of out-group members. The second is conflict actor bias, which is associated with deflecting responsibility for wrongdoing from state agents to non-state agents of violence. We test for bias in domestic war crimes trials in Serbia with statistical modelling and quantitative text analysis of judicial decisions delivered to Serb and non-Serb defendants (1999–2019). While we do not find evidence of ethnic bias, our results indicate conflict actor bias. Serb paramilitaries received harsher sentences than Serb state agents of violence. Furthermore, we observe bias in the textual content of judgements. Judges depict violence committed by paramilitaries more extensively and graphically than violence by state actors. By revealing these judicial strategies, we demonstrate how a state can use domestic war crimes trials to diminish state wrongdoing and attribute the responsibility for violence to paramilitaries. The conflict actor bias we identify shows how deniability of accountability operates after conflict, complementing existing explanations of states’ collusion with paramilitaries before and during conflict.
{"title":"Are domestic war crimes trials biased?","authors":"Ivor Sokolić, Denisa Kostovicova, Lanabi La Lova, Sanja Vico","doi":"10.1177/00223433241292143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241292143","url":null,"abstract":"Fairness of domestic war crimes trials matters for promoting justice and peace. Scholars have studied public perceptions of war crimes trials to assess their fairness, but little is known about whether post-conflict states conduct them fairly. Bias, as a matter of procedural fairness, can manifest as a tendency to favour certain groups over others. Leveraging the theories of judicial decisionmaking, this article investigates two types of bias. The first is in-group bias, which is associated with protection of in-group members and punishment of out-group members. The second is conflict actor bias, which is associated with deflecting responsibility for wrongdoing from state agents to non-state agents of violence. We test for bias in domestic war crimes trials in Serbia with statistical modelling and quantitative text analysis of judicial decisions delivered to Serb and non-Serb defendants (1999–2019). While we do not find evidence of ethnic bias, our results indicate conflict actor bias. Serb paramilitaries received harsher sentences than Serb state agents of violence. Furthermore, we observe bias in the textual content of judgements. Judges depict violence committed by paramilitaries more extensively and graphically than violence by state actors. By revealing these judicial strategies, we demonstrate how a state can use domestic war crimes trials to diminish state wrongdoing and attribute the responsibility for violence to paramilitaries. The conflict actor bias we identify shows how deniability of accountability operates after conflict, complementing existing explanations of states’ collusion with paramilitaries before and during conflict.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142908531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-31DOI: 10.1177/00223433241289813
Lesley-Ann Daniels
Creating a stable peace is now the key puzzle to resolve in ending civil wars. To date, research has focused on ‘hard’ political and military reforms included in peace agreements, and the impact of ‘soft’ concessions such as language rights, cultural rights or the right to religion have been largely ignored. When do states give these concessions and do they make a difference to peace outcomes? The article argues that the state grants these concessions to dilute ethnic grievances and accommodate the group, bypassing political demands, but gives them strategically to ethnic groups that are politically weak. The concessions have effects through the expressive, demarcating and relational impacts on the receiving group. The article uses original data on identity concessions in a comparison of conflicts with ethnic aims that ended in a peace agreement from 1989 to 2013. The findings show that concessions are given to larger ethnic groups that lack political power. If granted, identity concessions only make peace more durable when fully implemented. The article thus brings a novel contribution to the role of grievances in civil wars and to the settlement of civil conflicts.
{"title":"Identity concessions in ethnic civil wars: When are they given and with what outcomes for peace?","authors":"Lesley-Ann Daniels","doi":"10.1177/00223433241289813","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241289813","url":null,"abstract":"Creating a stable peace is now the key puzzle to resolve in ending civil wars. To date, research has focused on ‘hard’ political and military reforms included in peace agreements, and the impact of ‘soft’ concessions such as language rights, cultural rights or the right to religion have been largely ignored. When do states give these concessions and do they make a difference to peace outcomes? The article argues that the state grants these concessions to dilute ethnic grievances and accommodate the group, bypassing political demands, but gives them strategically to ethnic groups that are politically weak. The concessions have effects through the expressive, demarcating and relational impacts on the receiving group. The article uses original data on identity concessions in a comparison of conflicts with ethnic aims that ended in a peace agreement from 1989 to 2013. The findings show that concessions are given to larger ethnic groups that lack political power. If granted, identity concessions only make peace more durable when fully implemented. The article thus brings a novel contribution to the role of grievances in civil wars and to the settlement of civil conflicts.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"138 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142908532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-31DOI: 10.1177/00223433241291927
Elizabeth J Tennant, Elisabeth A Gilmore
Recent research highlights how the same vulnerabilities that lead to disasters also condition the impact of hazards on violent conflict. Yet it is common practice in the literature to proxy rapid-onset hazards with disaster impacts when studying political violence. This can bias upward estimates of hazard–conflict relationships and obscure heterogeneous effects, with implications for forecasting as well as disaster risk reduction and peace-building activities. To overcome this, we implement an approach that measures and models the separate components of a tropical cyclone event: the hazard, the exposure, and the impacts. We then estimate a set of models that quantify how the incidence and intensity of organized violence respond to hazard exposure. We find little evidence that the average tropical cyclone enhances or diminishes violent conflict at the country level over a two-year time horizon. Yet rather than signaling that storms do not matter for political violence, unpacking this average result reveals two countervailing effects within countries. Conflict, and especially one-sided violence against civilians, tends to escalate in regions directly exposed to the tropical cyclone. In contrast, areas outside the path of the storm may experience a decrease in conflict. These results are heterogeneous with tropical cyclone intensity, and conflict escalation is more likely to occur in settings with less effective governments. Our results underscore the importance of ex-ante efforts targeting government capacity and effective disaster risk reduction to moderate the risk of violent conflict in the wake of tropical cyclones.
{"title":"Dynamics of organized violence in the wake of tropical cyclones","authors":"Elizabeth J Tennant, Elisabeth A Gilmore","doi":"10.1177/00223433241291927","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241291927","url":null,"abstract":"Recent research highlights how the same vulnerabilities that lead to disasters also condition the impact of hazards on violent conflict. Yet it is common practice in the literature to proxy rapid-onset hazards with disaster impacts when studying political violence. This can bias upward estimates of hazard–conflict relationships and obscure heterogeneous effects, with implications for forecasting as well as disaster risk reduction and peace-building activities. To overcome this, we implement an approach that measures and models the separate components of a tropical cyclone event: the hazard, the exposure, and the impacts. We then estimate a set of models that quantify how the incidence and intensity of organized violence respond to hazard exposure. We find little evidence that the average tropical cyclone enhances or diminishes violent conflict at the country level over a two-year time horizon. Yet rather than signaling that storms do not matter for political violence, unpacking this average result reveals two countervailing effects within countries. Conflict, and especially one-sided violence against civilians, tends to escalate in regions directly exposed to the tropical cyclone. In contrast, areas outside the path of the storm may experience a decrease in conflict. These results are heterogeneous with tropical cyclone intensity, and conflict escalation is more likely to occur in settings with less effective governments. Our results underscore the importance of ex-ante efforts targeting government capacity and effective disaster risk reduction to moderate the risk of violent conflict in the wake of tropical cyclones.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"203 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142908514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-31DOI: 10.1177/00223433241292270
Yasuki Kudo
Great powers frequently signal their alliance commitments during peacetime. While scholars see this peacetime practice as an integral part of great powers’ alliance maintenance, there is significant variation in the intensity of signals that junior allies receive. This article suggests that the choices made by great powers in signalling alliance commitments can be explained by the motivation to encourage compliance among junior allies. Great powers typically form alliances to exert control over their junior allies’ decision-making and thereby maintain their sphere of influence. Yet, great powers may face difficulty in making junior allies accommodate their demands as junior allies’ interests are not always in alignment. This article argues that great powers attempt to maintain their allies’ incentive to comply by reaffirming alliance commitments as an ex-post reward. In addition, to increase the efficiency of this reward strategy, great powers carefully select the targets, taking into account their allies’ willingness to make concessions. Empirical analysis using the sample of United States alliance relationships provides evidence that supports these arguments. This article contributes to the literature by deepening our comprehension of how great powers manage their alliances and providing at least a partial answer to how asymmetric alliances are maintained. Furthermore, this article has important implications for how great powers maintain their status within the international system.
{"title":"Rewarding loyalty: Selective reassurance and enforcement of asymmetric alliances","authors":"Yasuki Kudo","doi":"10.1177/00223433241292270","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241292270","url":null,"abstract":"Great powers frequently signal their alliance commitments during peacetime. While scholars see this peacetime practice as an integral part of great powers’ alliance maintenance, there is significant variation in the intensity of signals that junior allies receive. This article suggests that the choices made by great powers in signalling alliance commitments can be explained by the motivation to encourage compliance among junior allies. Great powers typically form alliances to exert control over their junior allies’ decision-making and thereby maintain their sphere of influence. Yet, great powers may face difficulty in making junior allies accommodate their demands as junior allies’ interests are not always in alignment. This article argues that great powers attempt to maintain their allies’ incentive to comply by reaffirming alliance commitments as an ex-post reward. In addition, to increase the efficiency of this reward strategy, great powers carefully select the targets, taking into account their allies’ willingness to make concessions. Empirical analysis using the sample of United States alliance relationships provides evidence that supports these arguments. This article contributes to the literature by deepening our comprehension of how great powers manage their alliances and providing at least a partial answer to how asymmetric alliances are maintained. Furthermore, this article has important implications for how great powers maintain their status within the international system.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142908533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-18DOI: 10.1177/00223433241283323
Camille Laville, Pierre Mandon
Do variations in local incomes influence peace and conflict in low- and middle-income countries? The present meta-regression analysis contributes to answering this question by delving into the narratives that researchers use to qualify how various shocks affect conflict risk through channels implicitly linked to income. After examining 2,464 subnational estimates from 64 recent empirical studies, we find that several publication biases related to authors’ methodological choices influence our understanding of this phenomenon. Importantly, studies that fail to uncover empirical effects that conform to researchers’ expectations on the theoretical mechanisms are less likely to be published. After accounting for publication selection bias, the analysis finds that, on average, income-increasing shocks in the agriculture sector are negatively associated with the local risk of conflict. Nonetheless, the analysis finds no average effect of income-decreasing shocks in the agriculture sector or income-increasing shocks in the extractive sector on the local risk of conflict. The article opens avenues for further study on the granular observed heterogeneity in the literature, particularly focusing on the conditional aspects of how shocks and conflicts are measured and the geographical coverage, among others.
{"title":"Internal conflicts and shocks: A narrative meta-analysis","authors":"Camille Laville, Pierre Mandon","doi":"10.1177/00223433241283323","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241283323","url":null,"abstract":"Do variations in local incomes influence peace and conflict in low- and middle-income countries? The present meta-regression analysis contributes to answering this question by delving into the narratives that researchers use to qualify how various shocks affect conflict risk through channels implicitly linked to income. After examining 2,464 subnational estimates from 64 recent empirical studies, we find that several publication biases related to authors’ methodological choices influence our understanding of this phenomenon. Importantly, studies that fail to uncover empirical effects that conform to researchers’ expectations on the theoretical mechanisms are less likely to be published. After accounting for publication selection bias, the analysis finds that, on average, income-increasing shocks in the agriculture sector are negatively associated with the local risk of conflict. Nonetheless, the analysis finds no average effect of income-decreasing shocks in the agriculture sector or income-increasing shocks in the extractive sector on the local risk of conflict. The article opens avenues for further study on the granular observed heterogeneity in the literature, particularly focusing on the conditional aspects of how shocks and conflicts are measured and the geographical coverage, among others.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"262 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-18DOI: 10.1177/00223433241290315
Sam A Erkiletian
What explains the variation in combatant socialization and resocialization outcomes? Why do some combatants adopt the intended norms of their organization while others resist them? Combatants regularly undergo intensive socialization and ‘resocialization’ processes within total institutions – regimented environments like armed organizations and re-education programs that seek to alter their norms. Total institutions profoundly shape the behaviors and attitudes of combatants during and after conflict. However, even within these controlled environments, combats develop norms differently, and it is still not clear what factors drive this variation in combatant preference formation. This article presents and tests a framework that combatant socialization is in part driven by subgroups – the smaller social units within total institutions that form the informal structure and environment of combatants. Specifically, subgroup leaders moderate socialization processes by reinforcing or undermining the official norms of the organization. To test this expectation, I leverage archival data from the British re-education program for German POWs (1946–1948) which sought to ‘democratize’ them. To facilitate re-education, British officials installed pro-democratic POWs into subgroup leadership positions in select camps. Using a novel dataset constructed from hand-coded administrative reports, I measure the effect of subgroup leadership type on socialization outcomes. The results suggest that subgroup leaders moderate socialization outcomes.
{"title":"The role of subgroup leaders in combatant socialization and resocialization: The British re-education program for German POWs (1946–1948)","authors":"Sam A Erkiletian","doi":"10.1177/00223433241290315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241290315","url":null,"abstract":"What explains the variation in combatant socialization and resocialization outcomes? Why do some combatants adopt the intended norms of their organization while others resist them? Combatants regularly undergo intensive socialization and ‘resocialization’ processes within total institutions – regimented environments like armed organizations and re-education programs that seek to alter their norms. Total institutions profoundly shape the behaviors and attitudes of combatants during and after conflict. However, even within these controlled environments, combats develop norms differently, and it is still not clear what factors drive this variation in combatant preference formation. This article presents and tests a framework that combatant socialization is in part driven by subgroups – the smaller social units within total institutions that form the informal structure and environment of combatants. Specifically, subgroup leaders moderate socialization processes by reinforcing or undermining the official norms of the organization. To test this expectation, I leverage archival data from the British re-education program for German POWs (1946–1948) which sought to ‘democratize’ them. To facilitate re-education, British officials installed pro-democratic POWs into subgroup leadership positions in select camps. Using a novel dataset constructed from hand-coded administrative reports, I measure the effect of subgroup leadership type on socialization outcomes. The results suggest that subgroup leaders moderate socialization outcomes.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"83 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-18DOI: 10.1177/00223433241279379
Sarah Birch
The impact of extreme weather events on electoral processes is not well understood, yet as the climate changes, such events are predicted to become more common. This highlights the need for scholars to investigate how natural hazards affect election campaigns and electoral administration. Drawing on data from the Electoral Contention and Violence dataset, this article uses a difference-in-differences approach to assess the effect of tropical storms on electoral contention over seven elections held in the Philippines between 1992 and 2010. It finds that storms that occur in the year leading up to an election increase, and that this effect is likely accounted for by both economic grievances consequent upon the negative impact of storms on agricultural output and grievances generated by storm-induced disruptions to the electoral process. These findings suggest that as climate change intensifies, – and the violence that contention often entails – could become more common in a number of contexts. This has implications for electoral administration, and it implies the need for cooperation across electoral and meteorological agencies in places where weather extremes are likely to occur in the runup to electoral events.
{"title":"Extreme weather and contentious elections","authors":"Sarah Birch","doi":"10.1177/00223433241279379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241279379","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of extreme weather events on electoral processes is not well understood, yet as the climate changes, such events are predicted to become more common. This highlights the need for scholars to investigate how natural hazards affect election campaigns and electoral administration. Drawing on data from the Electoral Contention and Violence dataset, this article uses a difference-in-differences approach to assess the effect of tropical storms on electoral contention over seven elections held in the Philippines between 1992 and 2010. It finds that storms that occur in the year leading up to an election increase, and that this effect is likely accounted for by both economic grievances consequent upon the negative impact of storms on agricultural output and grievances generated by storm-induced disruptions to the electoral process. These findings suggest that as climate change intensifies, – and the violence that contention often entails – could become more common in a number of contexts. This has implications for electoral administration, and it implies the need for cooperation across electoral and meteorological agencies in places where weather extremes are likely to occur in the runup to electoral events.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"63 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-25DOI: 10.1177/00223433241275335
Slava Jankin, Alexander Baturo, Niheer Dasandi
Every year since 1946, the General Debate has taken place at the beginning of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly session. Representatives from all UN member states deliver an address, discussing the issues that they consider most important in global politics, revealing their governments’ positions, and seeking to persuade other states of their perspectives. The annual UN General Debate statements provide invaluable information for scholars of international relations – comparable globally and over time. However, these texts are stored as poor quality images without relevant metadata, preventing researchers from applying data science methods. This paper introduces the complete UN General Debate Corpus (UNGDC). Building on a previous incomplete release of UNGDC, we have extended the corpus to cover the entire 1946–present period, included additional data on all speakers and provided advanced search and data visualization tools on a new website. The complete corpus contains over 10,000 speeches from 202 countries, including historical countries – making it the most comprehensive, unique and accessible collection of global political speeches. We discuss the complete UNGDC, provide relevant information for data users and present illustrative examples of how the corpus can be employed to address key questions in world politics.
{"title":"Words to unite nations: The complete United Nations General Debate Corpus, 1946–present","authors":"Slava Jankin, Alexander Baturo, Niheer Dasandi","doi":"10.1177/00223433241275335","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241275335","url":null,"abstract":"Every year since 1946, the General Debate has taken place at the beginning of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly session. Representatives from all UN member states deliver an address, discussing the issues that they consider most important in global politics, revealing their governments’ positions, and seeking to persuade other states of their perspectives. The annual UN General Debate statements provide invaluable information for scholars of international relations – comparable globally and over time. However, these texts are stored as poor quality images without relevant metadata, preventing researchers from applying data science methods. This paper introduces the complete UN General Debate Corpus (UNGDC). Building on a previous incomplete release of UNGDC, we have extended the corpus to cover the entire 1946–present period, included additional data on all speakers and provided advanced search and data visualization tools on a new website. The complete corpus contains over 10,000 speeches from 202 countries, including historical countries – making it the most comprehensive, unique and accessible collection of global political speeches. We discuss the complete UNGDC, provide relevant information for data users and present illustrative examples of how the corpus can be employed to address key questions in world politics.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142713018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-25DOI: 10.1177/00223433241274979
Angela Chesler
Does environmental displacement provoke political instability? Though migration has long been considered an intermediary in the causal path between environmental change and political upheaval, the relationship remains theoretically underdeveloped and evidence has been limited. This article examines the impact of displacement caused by sudden-onset natural hazards on disruptive antigovernment events including armed conflict, protests and violent riots. It leverages the new Environmental Displacement Dataset (EnDis), an original dataset that identifies quantities of human movement in response to six types of sudden-onset natural hazards in Africa from 1990 to 2017, including floods, storms, wildfires, landslides, earthquakes and volcanic activity. The results of the analyses show that while environmental displacement is not associated with civil war onset or protests, it does increase the incidence of attacks by armed non-state actors and violent riots. Importantly, these destabilizing effects occurr primarily (1) in the context of displacement driven by floods and storms, and (2) when levels of displacement are well above average. Collectively, these findings portend deepening security crises and violent political upheaval as climate change drives more frequent episodes of extreme weather and excessive environmental displacement.
{"title":"Environmental displacement and political instability: Evidence from Africa","authors":"Angela Chesler","doi":"10.1177/00223433241274979","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241274979","url":null,"abstract":"Does environmental displacement provoke political instability? Though migration has long been considered an intermediary in the causal path between environmental change and political upheaval, the relationship remains theoretically underdeveloped and evidence has been limited. This article examines the impact of displacement caused by sudden-onset natural hazards on disruptive antigovernment events including armed conflict, protests and violent riots. It leverages the new Environmental Displacement Dataset (EnDis), an original dataset that identifies quantities of human movement in response to six types of sudden-onset natural hazards in Africa from 1990 to 2017, including floods, storms, wildfires, landslides, earthquakes and volcanic activity. The results of the analyses show that while environmental displacement is not associated with civil war onset or protests, it does increase the incidence of attacks by armed non-state actors and violent riots. Importantly, these destabilizing effects occurr primarily (1) in the context of displacement driven by floods and storms, and (2) when levels of displacement are well above average. Collectively, these findings portend deepening security crises and violent political upheaval as climate change drives more frequent episodes of extreme weather and excessive environmental displacement.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"198 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142713017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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