Journal of Development Economics最新文献

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Food price variation and passthrough among retail firms in rural and urban Tanzania 坦桑尼亚农村和城市零售企业的食品价格变动和传递

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103621

Jessica Rudder

Seasonal price variation is a typical feature of markets in low- and middle-income countries. Retail firms that regularly stock food staples face substantial price variation when purchasing new inventory. How much of this input price variation passes through to output prices for rural customers? I use a panel of wholesale and retail prices from 270 urban and rural retail firms in Tanzania to evaluate the transmission of input price shocks to the prices of staple foods. Rural firms smooth both negative and positive input price shocks more than urban firms. Urban firms passthrough nearly 95% of input price increases, while rural firms passthrough only 55% of input price increases. Price adjustments are asymmetric; Rural firms passthrough a higher share of cost savings and a lower share of cost increases. By exploring possible mechanisms, I find evidence that a smaller community size among rural firms is associated with lower passthrough of negative price shocks. At the same time, distance to markets and competitive pressure matter as well: rural firms with more competitors and further from urban markets have higher passthrough rates, consistent with a competitive market framework with transaction costs. Firms passthrough a smaller share of price increases during the harvest season when agricultural households have more substitutes available.

季节性价格变化是中低收入国家市场的一个典型特征。经常储存主食的零售公司在购买新库存时面临着巨大的价格波动。对农村消费者来说，这种投入价格变化有多少会转化为产出价格？我使用了坦桑尼亚270个城市和农村零售公司的批发和零售价格面板来评估投入价格冲击对主食价格的传导。农村企业比城市企业更能缓解负和正的投入价格冲击。城市企业传递了近95%的投入价格上涨，而农村企业仅传递了55%的投入价格上涨。价格调整是不对称的；农村企业承担的成本节约份额更高，承担的成本增加份额更低。通过探索可能的机制，我发现证据表明，农村企业中较小的社区规模与较低的负价格冲击传递相关。同时，与市场的距离和竞争压力也很重要：竞争对手较多和离城市市场较远的农村公司具有较高的通过率，这与具有交易成本的竞争性市场框架相一致。在收获季节，当农户有更多的替代品可用时，企业承担的价格上涨份额较小。

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Input substitution in electricity generation and industrial production: Evidence from India 发电和工业生产中的投入替代：来自印度的证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103614

Raavi Aggarwal

Carbon taxation is suggested as an efficient instrument for the clean energy transition. However, high resulting prices for coal and electricity could adversely impact industrial performance and employment by raising production costs. Integration of renewable energy in the electricity grid could stabilise electricity prices. We estimate the elasticity of substitution between labour and electricity among the formal and informal manufacturing sector in India. The results show labour and electricity are strong complements in manufacturing, with elasticities significantly below one, which suggests a carbon tax that raises electricity prices may reduce employment in firms. On the contrary, we find high substitutability between thermal (coal) and renewable energy-based electricity generation, with the elasticity of substitution estimated at 2.0–3.3. Our results suggest that electricity derived from renewable energy sources and supplied to industry at affordable prices could mitigate the adverse effects of a carbon tax in Indian industry.

碳税被认为是清洁能源转型的有效工具。然而，由此导致的高煤电价格可能会提高生产成本，从而对工业绩效和就业产生不利影响。将可再生能源纳入电网可以稳定电价。我们估计了印度正规和非正规制造业中劳动力和电力之间的替代弹性。结果显示，劳动力和电力在制造业中是强有力的互补，弹性明显低于1，这表明提高电价的碳税可能会减少企业的就业。相反，我们发现热（煤）和可再生能源发电之间具有很高的可替代性，替代弹性估计在2.0-3.3之间。我们的研究结果表明，来自可再生能源的电力以可承受的价格供应给工业可以减轻碳税对印度工业的不利影响。

引用次数: 0

Impact evaluations in data-scarce environments: The case of stress-tolerant rice varieties in Bangladesh 数据匮乏环境中的影响评价：孟加拉国耐应力水稻品种的案例

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103648

Jeffrey D. Michler , Dewan Abdullah Al Rafi , Jonathan Giezendanner , Anna Josephson , Valerien O. Pede , Elizabeth Tellman

New technologies are sometimes introduced at times or in places that lack the necessary data to conduct a well-identified impact evaluation. We develop a methodology that combines Earth Observation (EO) data and deep learning with administrative and survey data so as to allow researchers to conduct impact evaluations when traditional economic data is missing. To demonstrate our method, we study stress tolerant rice varieties (STRVs) first introduced to Bangladesh 15 years ago. Using EO data on rice production and flooding for the entire country, spanning two decades, we find evidence of STRV effectiveness. We highlight how the nature of the technology, which is only effective under a specific set of circumstances, creates a Goldilocks Problem that EO data is particularly well suited to addressing. Our findings speak to the promises and challenges of using EO data to conduct impact evaluations in data-scarce environments.

新技术有时在缺乏必要数据进行明确确定的影响评价的时候或地方引入。我们开发了一种方法，将地球观测（EO）数据和深度学习与行政和调查数据相结合，使研究人员能够在传统经济数据缺失的情况下进行影响评估。为了证明我们的方法，我们研究了15年前首次引入孟加拉国的耐胁迫水稻品种（strv）。利用20年来全国水稻生产和洪水的EO数据，我们发现了STRV有效性的证据。我们强调了这项技术的本质，它只在特定的情况下有效，创造了一个金发姑娘问题，EO数据特别适合解决这个问题。我们的研究结果说明了在数据稀缺的环境中使用EO数据进行影响评估的前景和挑战。

引用次数: 0

High-speed railroads and local agricultural development 高速铁路和地方农业发展

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103647

Xiaoguang Chen , Binlei Gong , Zhilong Qin , Xiaoli Wang

We estimate the impacts of China's extensive high-speed railroads (HSR) expansions using both county-level and household-level agricultural data. Our estimates indicate that HSR expansions: (i) facilitated the outflow of labor from agriculture and reduced cropland in connected rural areas, particularly in underdeveloped regions; (ii) increased agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), effectively offsetting the negative impacts on agricultural output from reduced inputs; (iii) significantly boosted local GDP and government revenue, providing financial support for agriculture and critical investments in agricultural infrastructure and rural roads; (iv) facilitated farmers' access to technical training and encouraged the entry of new agribusiness firms; and (v) increased farmers' revenues and profits, strengthening their economic incentives for production and collectively improving agricultural TFP.

我们使用县级和家庭农业数据来估计中国高速铁路（HSR）广泛扩张的影响。我们的估计表明，高铁的扩张：(1)促进了农业劳动力的外流，减少了农村地区的耕地面积，特别是在欠发达地区；（ii）提高农业全要素生产率（TFP），有效抵消投入减少对农业产出的负面影响；（iii）显著提高了当地GDP和政府收入，为农业和农业基础设施和农村道路的关键投资提供了财政支持；便利农民获得技术培训，鼓励新的农业综合企业进入；（五）增加农民收入和利润，增强农民生产的经济激励，共同提高农业全要素生产率。

引用次数: 0

Gender differences in judicial decisions under incomplete information: Evidence from child support cases 信息不完全情况下司法判决中的性别差异：来自子女抚养案件的证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103622

Roberto Asmat , Lajos Kossuth

We study gender differences in child support rulings by judges in cases where defendants (fathers) may work in either the formal or informal sector. Our identification strategy exploits the random assignment of cases to courts presided over by individual judges. We find that female judges award child support amounts that are 0.18 standard deviations lower than those awarded by male judges. When focusing on defendants working in the informal sector (who constitute over 70% of the cases), the gap appears to stem from female judges’ greater skepticism toward what they perceive as inflated claims by plaintiffs, influencing their beliefs about defendants’ earnings. We further explore four potential mechanisms behind the gap that also include formal cases: bias against female plaintiffs, workplace masculinization, interactions with other judge characteristics, and differences in legal objectives. We do not find conclusive statistical support for these mechanisms.

我们研究了在被告（父亲）可能在正式或非正式部门工作的情况下，法官在子女抚养裁决中的性别差异。我们的识别策略利用随机分配案件到个别法官主持的法院。我们发现女法官判给孩子的抚养费比男法官判给孩子的抚养费低0.18个标准差。当关注在非正规部门工作的被告（占案件的70%以上）时，这种差距似乎源于女性法官对原告夸大索赔的更大怀疑，从而影响了她们对被告收入的看法。我们进一步探讨了这种差距背后的四种潜在机制，包括正式案件：对女性原告的偏见、工作场所的男性化、与其他法官特征的互动以及法律目标的差异。我们没有找到对这些机制的结论性统计支持。

引用次数: 0

Left over or opting out? Squeeze, mismatch and surplus in Chinese marriage markets 留下还是选择退出？中国婚姻市场的挤压、错配和过剩

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103629

Pauline Rossi , Yun Xiao

Marriage is declining in China. Among singles, the probability of marrying in 2019 was half that of marrying in 1999. We estimate a Choo and Siow (2006b) model using census data to quantify the relative roles of changes in population structure and changes in marital surplus, i.e., the value of marriage. We find that the increase in the supply of educated people explains half of the decline, partly due to a mismatch between highly-educated women and less-educated men. The deterioration of female-to-male ratio, known as marriage squeeze, explains an additional 13% for men. The decrease in surplus accounts for the remainder.

中国的结婚率正在下降。在单身人士中，2019年结婚的可能性是1999年结婚的一半。我们使用人口普查数据估算了Choo和Siow （2006b）模型，以量化人口结构变化和婚姻剩余（即婚姻价值）变化的相对作用。我们发现，受教育人数的增加解释了一半的下降，部分原因是受过高等教育的女性和受教育程度较低的男性之间的不匹配。男女比例的恶化，即所谓的“婚姻挤压”，解释了男性多出13%的原因。剩余部分的原因是盈余的减少。

引用次数: 0

The HIPC initiative and China’s emergence as a lender: post hoc or propter hoc? 重债穷国倡议和中国作为贷款国的出现：是后设还是适当的后设？

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103632

Tito Cordella , Maia Cufre , Andrea F. Presbitero

Twenty years after the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) debt relief initiative, debt levels in low-income countries are rising again, renewing sustainability concerns. The prevailing view suggests that China and other emerging lenders exploited the HIPC initiative to expand lending. Using a synthetic control method to generate a counterfactual, we find that, contrary to this narrative, China and other emerging lenders reduced net lending after debt relief; only multilateral creditors increased it. Furthermore, we find no evidence to support the claim that debt relief encourages lending to political allies. Overall, debt relief seems to have had a limited influence on subsequent lending patterns.

在重债穷国债务减免倡议实施二十年后，低收入国家的债务水平再次上升，重新引起人们对可持续性的关注。普遍的观点认为，中国和其他新兴贷款国利用重债穷国倡议扩大了贷款。使用综合控制方法生成反事实，我们发现，与这种叙述相反，中国和其他新兴贷方在债务减免后减少了净贷款；只有多边债权国增加了债务。此外，我们没有发现证据支持债务减免鼓励向政治盟友放贷的说法。总的来说，债务减免似乎对后来的贷款模式影响有限。

引用次数: 0

Weather shocks, recall error and health 天气冲击，召回错误和健康

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103644

Annika Herr, Soschia Karimi, Julian Wichert

A growing body of literature indicates that heat stress and precipitation deficiencies can pose a critical threat to human health, particularly in less developed countries with low coping capacities and high exposure. The aims of this study are twofold. First, we shed light on the recall of drought events in rural Thailand by linking longitudinal survey data with objective meteorological data. Here, an anomaly in the survey design serves as a natural experiment. We find that a shorter time interval between surveys has a large positive effect on households correctly reporting a drought event. Second, we examine the health effects of droughts comparing two drought measures. In our panel over seven waves, we find a strong effect on diseases, which is slightly stronger for the objective measure than when using the reported drought measure.

越来越多的文献表明，热应激和降水不足可能对人类健康构成严重威胁，特别是在应对能力低、暴露程度高的欠发达国家。这项研究的目的是双重的。首先，我们通过将纵向调查数据与客观气象数据联系起来，阐明了对泰国农村干旱事件的回忆。在这里，调查设计中的异常可以作为自然实验。我们发现，较短的调查时间间隔对正确报告干旱事件的家庭有很大的积极影响。其次，我们通过比较两种干旱措施来检验干旱对健康的影响。在我们的七波小组中，我们发现了对疾病的强烈影响，这种影响在客观测量中比使用报告的干旱测量时略强。

引用次数: 0

Migration and sources of discrimination in a social context: Experimental evidence from 15 Latin American countries 社会背景下的移民和歧视来源：来自15个拉丁美洲国家的实验证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103633

Carlos Gomez-Gonzalez , Gwen-Jirō Clochard , Helmut Dietl , Juan Cruz Duhalde

This paper considers two types of statistical discrimination: individual (productivity) and compositional (team fit). We conduct a large-scale correspondence study in 15 Latin American countries in the context of sports to test their influence on individual behavior. We send over 10,000 applications to male amateur soccer clubs and ask them to participate in a practice session. Each club receives one application, randomly varying the applicant's origin and signals about individual and compositional productivity. We find no evidence of discrimination against immigrants overall, but we observe heterogeneity that is consistent with individual statistical discrimination. Productivity signals have no significant influence.

本文考虑了两种类型的统计歧视：个人（生产率）和组成（团队配合）。我们在15个拉丁美洲国家进行了大规模的函授研究，在体育的背景下，测试他们对个人行为的影响。我们向男性业余足球俱乐部发送了1万多份申请，并要求他们参加一次训练课。每个俱乐部收到一份申请，随机改变申请人的来源和关于个人和组成生产力的信号。我们没有发现对移民整体歧视的证据，但我们观察到与个体统计歧视一致的异质性。生产率信号没有显著影响。

引用次数: 0

Judicial institution and innovation: Evidence from China's intellectual property courts reform 司法制度与创新：来自中国知识产权法院改革的证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103630

Liyang Wan , Qian Wan , Zichao Yang , Ying Zhao

This paper examines the impact of intellectual property judicial institutions on innovation, focusing on the intellectual property courts (IPCs) reform in China. We find that IPCs reform leads to a significant 22.6 % increase in the number of invention patents at the city level, equating to an average rise of 215 annually. Notably, we rule out the possibility of inter-region and intra-conglomerate transfer of patents, indicating that the effect of the IPCs reform on innovation is not a zero-sum game among regions. Furthermore, we find that the IPCs reform alters the patent structure by shifting the focus from utility and design patents to invention patents; however, it does not appear to significantly improve invention patent quality. Mechanism analyses suggest that the IPCs reform increases social satisfaction with judicial protection of intellectual property, shorter case duration and higher plaintiff winning rates in intellectual property cases.

本文以中国知识产权法院改革为研究对象，考察了知识产权司法制度对创新的影响。我们发现，IPCs改革导致城市一级的发明专利数量显著增加22.6%，相当于平均每年增加215件。值得注意的是，我们排除了地区间和企业内部专利转移的可能性，这表明ipcc改革对创新的影响不是区域间的零和游戏。此外，我们发现IPCs改革改变了专利结构，将重点从实用新型和外观设计专利转向发明专利；然而，它似乎并没有显著提高发明专利质量。机制分析表明，知识产权制度改革提高了社会对知识产权司法保护的满意度，缩短了案件审理时间，提高了知识产权案件的原告胜诉率。

引用次数: 0

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