Journal of Development Economics最新文献

英文中文

Bittersweet: Grandparenting and elderly mental health in the two-child policy era 苦乐参半：二孩时代的祖父母与老年人心理健康

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103670

Dapeng Chen , Shin-Yi Chou , Bingjin Xue

We exploit China's universal two-child policy and variations in adult children's birth cohort to examine the causal impact of the family-planning policy on grandparenting and elderly mental well-being. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that the policy significantly increased the number of grandchildren and intensified grandparental involvement—raising informal caregiving, weekly hours spent, co-residence, and contact with adult children. These changes were accompanied by a 6.8 % increase in CESD-10 depression scores and 8.9 %–14.3 % increase in underlying symptoms such as restless sleep, irritability, difficulty concentrating, and hopelessness. We find no significant changes in income, consumption, or healthcare use, suggesting that the mental health effects are most plausibly driven by increased caregiving demands. The impacts are most pronounced among urban and paternal grandparents, especially paternal grandmothers. Despite these declines, we find no evidence of elevated risk of severe clinical depression.

我们利用中国的全面二孩政策和成年子女出生队列的变化来研究计划生育政策对祖父母和老年人心理健康的因果影响。使用差异中的差异设计，我们发现该政策显著增加了孙子孙女的数量，并加强了祖父母的参与——提高了非正式照顾、每周花费的时间、共同居住以及与成年子女的接触。这些变化伴随着csd -10抑郁评分增加6.8%和潜在症状增加8.9% - 14.3%，如睡眠不安、易怒、注意力难以集中和绝望。我们发现在收入、消费或医疗保健使用方面没有显著的变化，这表明心理健康的影响最有可能是由增加的护理需求驱动的。这种影响在城市和祖父母中最为明显，尤其是祖母。尽管这些下降，我们没有发现严重临床抑郁症风险增加的证据。

引用次数: 0

Judicial institution and innovation: Evidence from China's intellectual property courts reform 司法制度与创新：来自中国知识产权法院改革的证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103630

Liyang Wan , Qian Wan , Zichao Yang , Ying Zhao

This paper examines the impact of intellectual property judicial institutions on innovation, focusing on the intellectual property courts (IPCs) reform in China. We find that IPCs reform leads to a significant 22.6 % increase in the number of invention patents at the city level, equating to an average rise of 215 annually. Notably, we rule out the possibility of inter-region and intra-conglomerate transfer of patents, indicating that the effect of the IPCs reform on innovation is not a zero-sum game among regions. Furthermore, we find that the IPCs reform alters the patent structure by shifting the focus from utility and design patents to invention patents; however, it does not appear to significantly improve invention patent quality. Mechanism analyses suggest that the IPCs reform increases social satisfaction with judicial protection of intellectual property, shorter case duration and higher plaintiff winning rates in intellectual property cases.

本文以中国知识产权法院改革为研究对象，考察了知识产权司法制度对创新的影响。我们发现，IPCs改革导致城市一级的发明专利数量显著增加22.6%，相当于平均每年增加215件。值得注意的是，我们排除了地区间和企业内部专利转移的可能性，这表明ipcc改革对创新的影响不是区域间的零和游戏。此外，我们发现IPCs改革改变了专利结构，将重点从实用新型和外观设计专利转向发明专利；然而，它似乎并没有显著提高发明专利质量。机制分析表明，知识产权制度改革提高了社会对知识产权司法保护的满意度，缩短了案件审理时间，提高了知识产权案件的原告胜诉率。

引用次数: 0

Anti-corruption shocks, political incentives, and regional economic development in a developmental state 发展中国家的反腐冲击、政治激励与区域经济发展

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103606

Zhenyu Shen , Ruichao Si , Gang Xu

This study examines the impact of anti-corruption campaigns on regional economic development in a developmental state with weak market-supporting institutions. By leveraging staggered investigations of city leaders’ political patrons amid the recent corruption crackdown in China, we find that cities led by officials connected to investigated high-ranking officials experience a notable decline in economic performance. This decline is most plausibly attributed to diminished corruption-induced efforts by local officials in various government-led economic activities, including land sales, government procurement, and public infrastructure investment. However, we find that local governments place greater emphasis on environmental protection, and several welfare indicators, including air quality, improve significantly following the shock. We rule out alternative explanations such as unfavorable market responses or decreased support from higher-level governments. Further analysis reveals that local leaders achieving superior economic performance after their patrons’ downfall would face worse career prospects. Our findings highlight that China’s anti-corruption campaign has helped transform the development model of local governments from a corruption-driven, growth-oriented one to one centered on high-quality development with a stronger focus on welfare.

本研究考察了在一个市场支持制度薄弱的发展中国家，反腐运动对区域经济发展的影响。在中国最近的反腐行动中，通过对城市领导人政治庇护人的交错调查，我们发现，由与被调查的高级官员有联系的官员领导的城市，其经济表现明显下降。这种下降最合理的原因是，地方官员在各种政府主导的经济活动中，包括土地销售、政府采购和公共基础设施投资，腐败导致的努力减少了。然而，我们发现地方政府更加重视环境保护，包括空气质量在内的一些福利指标在冲击后显著改善。我们排除了其他解释，如不利的市场反应或上级政府的支持减少。进一步的分析表明，地方领导人在其赞助人下台后取得了更好的经济表现，其职业前景将会更糟。我们的研究结果强调，中国的反腐运动帮助地方政府的发展模式从腐败驱动、增长导向转变为以高质量发展为中心、更加注重福利的发展模式。

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Right to stay? Long-run experimental evidence on land formalization and widows’ tenure security in Benin 留下来的权利？贝宁土地正规化和寡妇权属保障的长期实验证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103675

Ioana Botea , Markus Goldstein , Kenneth Houngbedji , Florence Kondylis , Michael O’Sullivan , Harris Selod

In many parts of the world, women’s land rights remain informal, leaving widows – especially those without a male heir – at high risk of losing access to their land and homes when their husbands die. We study whether large-scale land formalization programs can improve widows’ tenure security, using data from a randomized controlled trial in rural Benin. Four years after the intervention, widows in villages with land formalization were significantly more likely to remain in their homes, with the strongest effects among those without a male heir. We identify two key mechanisms: increased community recognition of women’s land rights and greater decision-making power over land resources. These findings highlight the potential of land formalization to strengthen women’s tenure security and promote their long-term economic stability in similar settings.

在世界许多地方，妇女的土地权仍然是非正式的，这使得寡妇——特别是那些没有男性继承人的寡妇——在丈夫去世后面临失去土地和家园的高风险。我们利用贝宁农村的随机对照试验数据，研究大规模土地正规化项目是否能改善丧偶妇女的权属保障。干预四年后，土地正规化村庄的寡妇明显更有可能留在家中，对没有男性继承人的影响最大。我们确定了两个关键机制：提高社区对妇女土地权的认识和提高对土地资源的决策权。这些研究结果突出了土地正规化在类似环境下加强妇女保有权保障和促进其长期经济稳定方面的潜力。

引用次数: 0

Externalities of the personality traits: The effect of peer personality on students’ mental health 人格特质的外部性：同伴人格对学生心理健康的影响

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103680

Liping Chen , Jiada Lin , Zhifeng Wang

This study examines the role of peer personality in shaping the mental health of adolescent students. We use data from the China Education Panel Survey and focus on schools that implement random class assignment to identify causal peer effects. Exploiting the exogenous variation in peer personality across classes within the same school and grade, we find that peer openness significantly improves students’ mental health, while the effect of peer persistence is negligible. Moreover, a mechanism analysis reveals that the beneficial effects of peer openness operate through improvements in classroom environment and teacher–student relationships.

本研究探讨同伴人格对青少年学生心理健康的影响。我们使用来自中国教育小组调查的数据，并关注实施随机班级分配的学校，以确定因果同伴效应。通过对同一学校、同一年级班级同伴人格的外生变异分析，我们发现同伴开放性显著改善了学生的心理健康，而同伴持久性的影响可以忽略不计。此外，机制分析表明同伴开放的有益效应通过改善课堂环境和师生关系来发挥作用。

引用次数: 0

Protecting the vulnerable: How migrant regularization reduces crime and empowers women 保护弱势群体：移民正规化如何减少犯罪并赋予妇女权力

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103667

Ana María Ibáñez ⓡ , Sandra V. Rozo ⓡ , Dany Bahar ⓡ , María José Urbina

This paper examines the impacts of a regularization program that granted temporary economic rights to over 281,000 undocumented Venezuelan forced migrants in Colombia. The program resulted in a general reduction in crimes committed by forced migrants, while also increasing the number of domestic abuse and sex crimes female migrants reported. These findings suggest that empowerment and greater trust in local authorities are key mechanisms driving the behavioral changes for females, while proper enforcement facilitated by adequate documentation and the positive income effects of the program reduced the general propensity for migrants to commit crimes.

本文考察了一项正规化计划的影响，该计划向在哥伦比亚的281,000多名无证委内瑞拉被迫移民授予临时经济权利。该方案的结果是，被迫移徙者的犯罪行为普遍减少，但同时也增加了女性移徙者报告的家庭虐待和性犯罪的数量。这些发现表明，赋权和对地方当局的更大信任是推动女性行为改变的关键机制，而充分的文件和项目的积极收入效应促进了适当的执法，降低了移民犯罪的总体倾向。

引用次数: 0

Social isolation induced negative emotions affect economic behavior: A natural experiment study 社会孤立引起的负面情绪对经济行为的影响：自然实验研究

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103677

Shan Jin , Tiancheng Liu , Zepeng Sun , Xiaomeng Zhang

Social isolation policies, often implemented during major public health or social crises, can exert profound effects on both mental health and economic behavior. This study exploits an abrupt campus-wide restriction on in-person interactions as a natural experiment to examine the consequences of prolonged isolation among young adults. Using both within-subject and between-subject analyses, we find that extended separation from normal social life significantly heightens negative emotions, which in turn partially mediate a decline in cooperative behavior and a rise in antisocial tendencies. Specifically, cooperation decreased by 25.2% and antisocial punishment rose by 86.2% after eight weeks of enforced isolation. These findings highlight the necessity of accounting for the psychological consequences of isolation policies when evaluating their broader societal impacts.

通常在重大公共卫生或社会危机期间实施的社会隔离政策可对心理健康和经济行为产生深远影响。这项研究利用校园范围内突然限制面对面的互动，作为一个自然实验来检验年轻人长期孤立的后果。通过主体内分析和主体间分析，我们发现与正常社会生活的长期分离显著加剧了负面情绪，这反过来又部分地调节了合作行为的下降和反社会倾向的上升。具体来说，在强制隔离八周后，合作减少了25.2%，反社会惩罚增加了86.2%。这些发现突出表明，在评估孤立政策更广泛的社会影响时，有必要考虑其心理后果。

引用次数: 0

Electoral politics over automation in a dual economy 在双重经济中，选举政治胜过自动化

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103693

Jaideep Roy , Bibhas Saha

When automation in a developing economy displaces low-skilled workers in the advanced sector, backward sector wages may fall due to in-migration of the ‘newly’ unemployed. Fear of job and income loss may then induce office-seeking political parties to announce regulatory policies on automation for electoral success. We show that absent sectoral spillover, democratic adoption of automation is relatively higher and protects only high-skilled jobs in the advanced sector. However, the possibility of spillover limits this adoption. More specifically, if the backward sector is large, automation faces full resistance. In contrast, if the advanced sector is large, automation is moderate, making only the low-skilled jobs vulnerable. But these vulnerable workers, unlike their counterparts in the backward sector, may prefer automation because their advanced-sector wages fall below the severance pay plus backward-sector opportunities. When neither sector is large, the size of automation becomes uncertain, pushing similar economies into different growth paths.

当发展中经济体的自动化取代了先进部门的低技能工人时，落后部门的工资可能会由于“新”失业者的移民而下降。对失业和收入损失的担忧可能会促使寻求职位的政党宣布有关自动化的监管政策，以在选举中获胜。我们表明，在没有部门溢出的情况下，自动化的民主采用相对较高，并且只保护先进部门的高技能工作。然而，溢出的可能性限制了这种采用。更具体地说，如果落后行业很大，自动化将面临全面阻力。相反，如果先进行业规模很大，自动化程度就会比较温和，只有低技能的工作岗位容易受到影响。但与落后行业的工人不同，这些弱势工人可能更喜欢自动化，因为他们在先进行业的工资低于遣散费和落后行业的机会。当这两个行业的规模都不大时，自动化的规模就变得不确定，从而将类似的经济体推向不同的增长路径。

引用次数: 0

Effects of emigration on labor markets in migrant origin areas: Evidence from internal migration in Indonesia 移民对移民原籍地区劳动力市场的影响：来自印度尼西亚内部移民的证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103623

David H. Buller, Marieke Kleemans

We study the effects of internal migration in Indonesia on labor market outcomes of non-migrants in origin areas. To address endogeneity of the decision to migrate, we instrument emigration rates with shift-share labor demand shocks in destination areas interacted with historical migration patterns. Using detailed longitudinal data from over 36,000 individuals, whom we observe over a 27-year period, we find that a one percentage point increase in the emigration rate leads to a 3.42% increase in hourly income for those who stay in origin areas. Given the high degree of informality in Indonesia, we then look separately at effects for formal- and informal-sector workers. In line with a dual-sector labor market model, we find that employment effects are concentrated in the formal sector and income effects are most pronounced in the informal sector. Even though emigrants tend to be higher-educated, lower-educated non-migrants benefit the most as they switch to formal sector work and benefit from higher earnings in the informal sector.

我们研究了印尼内部移民对原籍地区非移民劳动力市场结果的影响。为了解决迁移决策的内生性问题，我们测量了移民率与目的地地区轮班份额劳动力需求冲击与历史迁移模式的相互作用。通过对超过36,000人的详细纵向数据进行27年的观察，我们发现，对于那些留在原籍地区的人来说，移民率每增加一个百分点，每小时收入就会增加3.42%。鉴于印尼的高度非正式性，我们随后分别研究了对正规部门和非正规部门工人的影响。根据双部门劳动力市场模型，我们发现就业效应主要集中在正规部门，而收入效应在非正规部门最为明显。尽管移民往往受教育程度较高，但受教育程度较低的非移民在转向正规部门工作并从非正规部门的较高收入中受益最多。

引用次数: 0

Turning up the heat: Extreme heat and labor implications in West Africa 高温：西非的极端高温和劳动力影响

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103683

Martin Paul Jr. Tabe-Ojong , Ange T. Kakpo , Jourdain C. Lokossou

We examine the impact of extreme heat on household labor allocation using earth observation and microdata from Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria. We find that extreme heat affects household labor in distinct ways with significant cross-country heterogeneities. In Nigeria, extreme heat reduces labor use at the extensive margin but increases labor use at the intensive margin. Notably, child labor rises while adult labor declines at the extensive margin. In Mali, extreme heat leads to an overall increase in household labor, particularly among women and children, whereas Ghana shows minimal impact except for reduced child labor. Both Mali and Nigeria experience decreases in hired labor, animal traction, and associated labor costs under extreme heat exposure. These patterns could be explained by farmers’ adaptive strategies: extreme heat triggers the build-up of pests, weeds, and diseases, which could induce farmers to use more pesticides and engage in manual weeding, which are labor-demanding. Moreover, households rely on climate-resistant crop varieties and cropland expansion, which may require additional labor efforts. These findings underscore the nuanced effects of extreme heat on rural labor markets and the importance of context-specific adaptation strategies.

我们利用加纳、马里和尼日利亚的地球观测和微观数据研究了极端高温对家庭劳动力分配的影响。我们发现，极端高温以不同的方式影响家庭劳动，具有显著的跨国家异质性。在尼日利亚，极端高温减少了粗放边际的劳动力使用，但增加了集约边际的劳动力使用。值得注意的是，童工数量上升，而成人劳动力数量大幅下降。在马里，极端高温导致家庭劳动，特别是妇女和儿童劳动的总体增加，而加纳除了童工减少外，影响微乎其微。在极端高温环境下，马里和尼日利亚的雇佣劳动力、动物牵引力和相关劳动力成本均有所下降。这些模式可以用农民的适应策略来解释：极端的高温会引发害虫、杂草和疾病的积累，这可能会导致农民使用更多的杀虫剂，并从事人工除草，这需要劳动力。此外，家庭依赖于抗气候的作物品种和农田扩张，这可能需要额外的劳动力。这些发现强调了极端高温对农村劳动力市场的细微影响，以及针对具体情况制定适应策略的重要性。

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Journal of Development Economics

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