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Does World Uncertainty and Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Tourism in G7 Countries? Evidence From Quantile-on-Quantile Regression 世界不确定性和经济政策不确定性是否影响七国集团国家的旅游业?量化回归的证据
IF 8.9 2区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1177/00472875231210222
Zhike Lv, Yixin Sun, Ting Xu
This study empirically examines the correlations between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and world uncertainty (WU) and tourism in G7 countries. We use the quantile-on-quantile approach to explore some more subtle features between the variables and reveal asymmetric and heterogeneous relationships. The results show that the effects of EPU and WU are stronger at higher quantiles, and considerable variation is revealed across countries due to differing characteristics and economic circumstances. We determine that EPU has a negative impact on tourism and more significant positive effects are evident at different quantile combinations in all G7 countries, whereas the impact of WU on tourism is negative. We also found more significant positive effects of WU on tourism at different quantile combinations in all G7 countries.
本研究通过实证研究探讨了经济政策不确定性(EPU)和世界不确定性(WU)与七国集团国家旅游业之间的相关性。我们使用量化对量化的方法来探索变量之间一些更微妙的特征,并揭示非对称和异质性的关系。结果表明,EPU 和 WU 的影响在较高的量级上更强,而且由于各国的特点和经济环境不同,它们之间的差异也相当大。我们确定 EPU 对旅游业有负面影响,而且在所有 G7 国家的不同数量组合中都有更显著的正面影响,而 WU 对旅游业的影响是负面的。我们还发现,在所有七国集团国家的不同数量级组合中,世界经济增长率对旅游业的积极影响更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
Tourism Demand Forecasting With Multiple Mixed-Frequency Data: A Reverse Mixed-Data Sampling Method 基于多混合频率数据的旅游需求预测:一种反向混合数据抽样方法
2区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1177/00472875231203397
Peihuang Wu, Gang Li, Long Wen, Han Liu
Due to the limitations of existing tourism demand forecasting models, data with frequencies lower than those of the tourism demand need to be processed in advance and cannot be directly used in a model, which leads to the loss of timeliness and accuracy in tourism demand forecasting. Taking the inbound tourism of the United States prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic as an example, this study systematically examines the impact of data frequency processing on tourism demand modeling and forecasting, through the construction and comparison of three categories of models, with a particular focus on the first developed multiple mixed-frequency specification of reverse mixed-data sampling (RMIDAS) model. The results confirm the positive effect of multiple mixed-frequency models, which can directly use various original data frequencies, in improving the accuracy of tourism demand forecasting. This study also provides important guidance for future research on high-frequency tourism variables forecasting.
由于现有旅游需求预测模型的局限性,低于旅游需求频率的数据需要提前处理,不能直接用于模型,导致旅游需求预测的时效性和准确性下降。本研究以新冠肺炎疫情前和疫情期间的美国入境旅游为例,通过三类模型的构建和比较,系统考察了数据频率处理对旅游需求建模和预测的影响,重点研究了首次开发的多混合频率规范的反向混合数据采样(RMIDAS)模型。结果证实了多种混合频率模型在提高旅游需求预测精度方面的积极作用,该模型可以直接利用各种原始数据频率。本研究也为未来高频旅游变量预测研究提供了重要指导。
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引用次数: 0
Effective Pro-environmental Communication: Message Framing and Context Congruency Effect 有效的亲环境沟通:信息框架和语境一致性效应
2区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1177/00472875231206989
Jiehang Song, Zhibin Lin, Chundong Zheng
This research investigates the effectiveness of two types of message framing in pro-environmental communication: prescriptive versus proscriptive appeals in daily and tourism contexts. Two experimental studies were conducted. Study 1a focused on natural park and street park scenarios, while Study 1b examined hotel and office scenarios. Study 2 replicated Study 1 and further explored the mediating role of anticipated pride and guilt. The results indicate that in tourism contexts, prescriptive-framed appeals are more effective than proscriptive-framed appeals, whereas in daily contexts, proscriptive-framed appeals are more effective. Furthermore, the message framing-context congruency effect is mediated by the anticipated pride and guilt. These findings fill a literature gap by revealing the interaction between message framing and context in pro-environmental communication, providing insights for managers to customize appeals, using prescriptive-framed messages in tourism contexts and proscriptive-framed messages in daily contexts, while leveraging anticipated pride and guilt to motivate eco-friendly actions.
本研究调查了两种类型的信息框架在亲环境传播中的有效性:在日常和旅游环境中规定的与禁止的呼吁。进行了两项实验研究。研究1a侧重于自然公园和街道公园场景,而研究1b则研究了酒店和办公室场景。研究2重复了研究1,并进一步探讨了预期骄傲和内疚感的中介作用。结果表明,在旅游情境中,规定性框架申诉比禁止性框架申诉更有效,而在日常情境中,禁止性框架申诉更有效。此外,信息框架-语境一致性效应受预期的骄傲和内疚的调节。这些发现填补了文献空白,揭示了亲环境沟通中信息框架和语境之间的相互作用,为管理者提供了定制诉求的见解,在旅游环境中使用规定框架的信息,在日常环境中使用禁止框架的信息,同时利用预期的骄傲和内疚来激励环保行动。
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引用次数: 0
Tourism Demand in the Face of Geopolitical Risk: Insights From a Cross-Country Analysis 面对地缘政治风险的旅游需求:来自跨国分析的见解
2区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1177/00472875231206539
Estela Papagianni, Anastasios Evgenidis, Athanasios Tsagkanos, Vasileios Megalooikonomou
This paper develops a novel Bayesian heterogeneous panel vector autoregressive model (B-HP-VAR) that quantifies the impact of geopolitical risk shocks on the tourism industry of 14 emerging market and developing economies (EMDE). We find that increasing geopolitical tensions have a persistent negative effect on tourism demand in most of these countries, as shown by our impulse response estimates. Furthermore, evidence from forecast error variance decomposition reveals that geopolitical risk shocks in many EMDE economies constitute the main driver of tourism demand. Analysis from historical decompositions demonstrates that geopolitical tensions have been particularly influential in driving tourism demand in Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, China, Indonesia, Thailand, Colombia, and Mexico. Our main findings are robust to several perturbations to the benchmark specification. Our results have several important implications for policymakers in their efforts to strengthen the ability of the tourism industry to absorb shocks from geopolitical tensions.
本文建立了一种新的贝叶斯异质性面板向量自回归模型(b -惠普- var),量化了地缘政治风险冲击对14个新兴市场和发展中经济体(EMDE)旅游业的影响。我们发现,不断加剧的地缘政治紧张局势对大多数这些国家的旅游需求产生了持续的负面影响,正如我们的脉冲响应估计所示。此外,预测误差方差分解的证据表明,地缘政治风险冲击是许多EMDE经济体旅游需求的主要驱动因素。历史分解分析表明,地缘政治紧张局势对乌克兰、俄罗斯、土耳其、中国、印度尼西亚、泰国、哥伦比亚和墨西哥的旅游需求产生了特别大的影响。我们的主要发现对基准规范的几个扰动具有鲁棒性。我们的研究结果对政策制定者加强旅游业吸收地缘政治紧张局势冲击的能力具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Responses to Compatriot Tourist Misbehavior: The Importance of Social Identity, Emotions, and Misbehavior Type 游客不当行为的社会认同、情绪与不当行为类型的重要性
2区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-30 DOI: 10.1177/00472875231206543
Wanting Sun, P. Monica Chien, Ravi Pappu
As destinations recover quickly from the COVID-19 pandemic, the tension caused by tourist misbehavior is coming back to poison the sustainability of tourism development. Guided by the social identity theory, this paper examines how people respond to compatriot tourist misbehavior. It contributes to the literature by studying the psychological mechanism underlying individuals’ calibration of misbehaviors committed by compatriot tourists and predicting downstream intergroup and intragroup consequences of tourist misbehavior. The results of two experiments showed that people displayed ingroup favoritism and intragroup differentiation simultaneously in their responses to compatriot tourists’ misbehavior. Ingroup identification motivated people to exculpate the misbehaving compatriots and carry out prosocial behavior direct at the destination involved, suggesting a double-edged sword. Emotions played mediating roles underlying people’s attitudes and behavioral intentions toward compatriot tourists’ misbehavior. The results also implied the moderating role of misbehavior type. Practically, this paper informs destinations on communication strategies for tourist misbehavior.
随着旅游目的地迅速从新冠肺炎疫情中恢复过来,游客不当行为造成的紧张局势正在重新毒害旅游业的可持续性发展。本文以社会认同理论为指导,考察人们对同胞旅游不当行为的反应。研究个体对同胞游客不当行为的校准心理机制,并预测游客不当行为的下游群体间和群体内后果,对文献有贡献。两个实验结果表明,人们在对同胞旅游者不当行为的反应中同时表现出群体内偏好和群体内分化。群体内认同促使人们为行为不端的同胞辩解,并直接针对相关目的地实施亲社会行为,这是一把双刃剑。情绪对游客不当行为的态度和行为意向起中介作用。研究结果还提示不良行为类型具有调节作用。在实践中,本文为目的地提供了针对游客不当行为的沟通策略。
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引用次数: 0
A Para-Social Perspective: The Influence of Idol Worship on Fans’ Tourism Decision-Making 准社会视角:偶像崇拜对粉丝旅游决策的影响
2区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-30 DOI: 10.1177/00472875231207860
Chunxiao Li, Tiantian Yang, Hongxu Liu, Xiaoyi Li
Fans’ relationships with celebrities are termed “para-social.” Such one-way relationships with celebrities, often based on social media, might have a special impact on people’s behavior, including travel activities. Scholars have not yet explored the decision-making and behavior of pop culture tourists from the perspective of para-social relationships. In this study, informed by self-construal theory, in-depth interview and questionnaire-based survey were used to explore the impact of different self-construal on fans’ perceptions of the nature of their “fan-celebrity” para-social relationship and their pop culture tourism decision-making. Results indicate that fans whose self-construal is “independent” prefer idols’ habitual residential environment and placed-mediated experiences, while “interdependent” fans prefer interactive experiences, are celebrity oriented, and go where their favorite celebrity was gone.
粉丝与明星的关系被称为“超社交”。这种与名人的单向关系,通常基于社交媒体,可能会对人们的行为产生特殊影响,包括旅行活动。学者们尚未从准社会关系的角度探讨流行文化游客的决策和行为。本研究以自我建构理论为基础,采用深度访谈法和问卷调查法,探讨不同自我建构对粉丝对“粉丝-名人”超社会关系本质认知及流行文化旅游决策的影响。结果表明,自我解释为“独立”的粉丝更喜欢偶像的习惯性居住环境和地点中介体验,而自我解释为“依赖”的粉丝更喜欢互动体验,以明星为导向,他们会去他们喜欢的明星去过的地方。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the Effectiveness of Environmental Sustainability Performance Communication in Tourism: Mediation and Moderation Effects 旅游环境可持续性绩效沟通的有效性评估:中介与调节效应
2区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1177/00472875231206548
Jishnu Bhattacharyya, M. S. Balaji, Yangyang Jiang
This study aims to examine how and when different framings of sustainability performance communication influence travelers’ behavioral intentions. Specifically, it examines (1) the effectiveness of sustainability performance communication framing in shaping traveler’s behavioral intentions, (2) the mediating role of perceived commitment to sustainability, and (3) the moderating effect of the level of sustainability performance communicated. The findings of the four experiments conducted revealed that communicating sustainability performance is more effective than not reporting it in determining travelers’ behavioral intentions. Furthermore, an enhancement framing is more effective when communicating sustainability performance than a reduction framing. We also found that tourism provider’s commitment to sustainability explains the impact of sustainability performance communication framing on behavioral intentions. Furthermore, we found that communicating a moderate level of sustainability performance in enhancement framing and a high level in reduction framing is effective. The study provides implications for theory and practice in developing effective sustainability communication.
本研究旨在探讨不同的可持续发展绩效沟通框架如何以及何时影响旅行者的行为意图。具体而言,本研究考察了(1)可持续发展绩效沟通框架在塑造旅行者行为意图中的有效性,(2)感知可持续发展承诺的中介作用,以及(3)可持续发展绩效沟通水平的调节作用。四个实验的结果表明,在确定旅行者的行为意图方面,传达可持续发展绩效比不报告可持续发展绩效更有效。此外,在沟通可持续性绩效时,增强框架比减少框架更有效。我们还发现,旅游提供者对可持续发展的承诺解释了可持续发展绩效沟通框架对行为意图的影响。此外,我们发现在增强框架中传达中等水平的可持续发展绩效和在减少框架中传达高水平的可持续发展绩效是有效的。本研究对发展有效的可持续发展沟通具有理论和实践意义。
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引用次数: 0
Falling for Tourist Scams: An Examination of Scam Compliance Factors 上当受骗:对旅游诈骗合规因素的考察
2区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1177/00472875231206542
Ding Xu, Laurie Murphy, Tingzhen Chen
Understanding how tourists respond to and comply with scams sheds light on tourist self-protection. In this study, a quasi-experimental design was employed to examine external (scam-operation) and internal (personal) factors of scam compliance. Twelve (3 × 4) scenarios were developed from real-world tourist scam cases and presented in the form of videos in an online tourist survey to elicit and observe decisions. A total of 609 participants from Australia and China completed the task, and the data were analyzed through multiple statistical techniques. The results suggested that the external factors of scam compliance did not exert a significant impact. Three internal factors, sensation-seeking, travel experiences, and risk perception, are stronger predictors of scam compliance. This study offers theoretical insights into tourist behavior, and contributes to new understandings of the antecedents of scam compliance.
了解游客如何应对和遵守骗局,有助于了解游客的自我保护。在本研究中,采用准实验设计来考察诈骗合规的外部(诈骗操作)和内部(个人)因素。从现实世界的旅游诈骗案例中开发出12个(3 × 4)场景,并在在线游客调查中以视频的形式呈现,以引出和观察决策。共有609名来自澳大利亚和中国的参与者完成了这项任务,并通过多种统计技术对数据进行了分析。结果表明,外部因素对诈骗依从性没有显著影响。三个内部因素,寻求刺激,旅行经历和风险感知,是更强的预测骗局遵守。本研究提供了对游客行为的理论见解,并有助于对诈骗合规的前因有新的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Evolution of the Memorable Tourism Experience and Future Research Prospects 难忘旅游体验的演变与未来研究展望
2区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1177/00472875231206545
Jong-Hyeong Kim, Frank Badu-Baiden, Seongseop (Sam) Kim, Mehmet Ali Koseoglu, Nancy Grace Baah
Because of their significance, research on memorable tourism experiences (MTEs) has rapidly increased in the last decade. However, few comprehensive studies have traced knowledge creation and dissemination in this important research area. To address this gap, 104 articles focused on MTEs from eight tourism journals were analyzed. This study applied multiple approaches, including a trend analysis of prevailing research themes and keywords, bibliometric analysis, and content analysis, generating suggestions for future research. Among the meaningful results, this study identified three research streams: the experience economy, the nomological network analysis of MTEs, and remembered experience analysis. Additional findings from a content analysis, and nine future research agendas were produced. Thus, by improving the understanding of customers’ MTEs, our findings not only open paths for future research but also have implications for industry.
由于其重要意义,对难忘旅游体验(MTEs)的研究在过去十年中迅速增加。然而,在这一重要的研究领域,很少有综合性的研究对知识的创造和传播进行追踪。为了解决这一差距,我们分析了来自8份旅游期刊的104篇关于mte的文章。本研究采用多种方法,包括主流研究主题和关键词的趋势分析、文献计量分析和内容分析,为未来的研究提出建议。在有意义的研究结果中,本研究确定了三个研究方向:体验经济、mte的法则网络分析和记忆经验分析。从内容分析中得出了更多的发现,并提出了九个未来的研究议程。因此,通过提高对客户mte的理解,我们的发现不仅为未来的研究开辟了道路,而且对行业也有影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Influence of Source Credibility and Inspiration on Tourists’ Travel Planning Through Travel Vlogs 来源可信度和灵感对游客通过旅游视频日志进行旅游规划的影响
2区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1177/00472875231206538
Phuong Minh Binh Nguyen, Xuan Lan Pham, Giang Nu To Truong
This study investigated the effects of viewing travel vlog experiences on online tourists’ travel planning behavior. Based on integrating cognitive emotion theory (CET) and the source credibility model (SCM), this study illuminates the mechanics of inspiration formation and its mediation role between credible vlogger characteristics and travel planning behavior. The study surveyed 423 online tourists in Vietnam who use travel vlogs to plan their travels. The study found that sincerity, professionalism, and attraction all positively affect inspiration, but attraction had the biggest effect. Inspiration partially mediated the relationship between sincerity and travel planning behavior, while the influence of professionalism and attraction on travel planning behavior was fully mediated by inspiration. The study suggests that travel vloggers need to create products that clearly portray their ethos and can connect emotionally with online tourists. Hospitality and tourism businesses should collaborate with travel vloggers to enhance their brand image.
本研究探讨旅游视频体验对在线游客旅游规划行为的影响。本研究基于认知情绪理论(CET)和信息源可信度模型(SCM)的整合,阐明了可信视频博主特征与旅行计划行为之间的灵感形成机制及其中介作用。该研究调查了423名越南在线游客,他们使用旅游视频来计划旅行。研究发现,真诚、专业和吸引力都会对灵感产生积极影响,但吸引力的影响最大。灵感部分中介真诚与旅行计划行为之间的关系,而专业性和吸引力对旅行计划行为的影响被灵感完全中介。该研究表明,旅游视频博主需要创造出能够清晰描绘他们的气质,并能与在线游客建立情感联系的产品。酒店和旅游企业应该与旅游视频博主合作,以提升他们的品牌形象。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Travel Research
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