World Development最新文献_第9页

Distributional energy justice and the inclusive human development Agenda in Africa 非洲能源分配正义与包容性人类发展议程

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107223

Isaac K. Ofori

This study advances the economic development and wellbeing scholarship through three key contributions. First, we show how distributional energy justice (hereafter: energy justice) affects inclusive human development (IHDI) in Africa. Second, we demonstrate how climate readiness moderates the effect of energy justice on IHDI. Third, we provide new evidence on how the joint effect of energy justice and climate readiness differs across low- and high-income African countries. We make these contributions using macro data for 36 African countries from 2010 to 2020. The results reveal that energy justice promotes IHDI. The contingency analysis also demonstrates that climate readiness is a critical complementary mechanism for amplifying the impact of energy justice on IHDI. Notably, across the economic, social, and governance perspectives of climate readiness, the results show that the moderating effect of governance readiness is striking. Evidence from sensitivity analysis also indicates that economic and governance readiness conditions energy justice to enhance IHDI in both high- and low-income African countries; however, these gains become elusive for the latter once social readiness is considered. These findings underscore the urgent need for investments in energy justice and climate readiness to foster IHDI in Africa.

本研究通过三个关键贡献推动了经济发展和福利研究。首先，我们展示了分配能源正义（以下简称：能源正义）如何影响非洲的包容性人类发展（IHDI）。其次，我们论证了气候准备度如何调节能源公平对IHDI的影响。第三，我们提供了新的证据，证明能源公正和气候准备的共同效应在低收入和高收入非洲国家之间是如何不同的。我们使用2010年至2020年36个非洲国家的宏观数据做出这些贡献。结果表明，能源公平对IHDI有促进作用。偶然性分析还表明，气候准备是扩大能源正义对IHDI影响的关键补充机制。值得注意的是，从气候准备的经济、社会和治理角度来看，结果表明，治理准备的调节作用是显著的。敏感性分析的证据还表明，在高收入和低收入的非洲国家，经济和治理准备程度为能源正义提供了条件，以提高IHDI；然而，一旦考虑到社会准备程度，这些收益对后者来说就变得难以捉摸了。这些发现强调了迫切需要在能源正义和气候准备方面进行投资，以促进非洲的IHDI。

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引用次数: 0

Scarcity reimagined: global green imaginaries, frontier-making, and resource conflict in Africa 重新想象的稀缺性：全球绿色想象、开拓边界和非洲的资源冲突

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107215

M.L. Gravesen , P. Albrecht , M. Yding

This article develops the three concepts global green scarcity imaginaries, greening frontiers, and green conflicts, to revisit the resource–conflict debate in Africa under contemporary climate and biodiversity crises. Earlier debates contrasted resource abundance with scarcity linked to environmental stress, weak governance, and social fragmentation, yet tended to treat scarcity as a material fact. We argue instead that scarcity is increasingly imagined and politicized. Global green scarcity imaginaries frame ecosystems, resources, and time as vanishing, legitimizing urgent interventions in the name of planetary survival. These imaginaries produce greening frontiers: future oriented spaces where conservation, renewable energy, and carbon sequestration reconfigure land rights and governance, often in regions long cast as marginal. Within these frontiers, competing claims and exclusions generate green conflicts: disputes that arise not despite but because of sustainability projects, often manifesting as slow violence. Drawing on cases from across Africa, this article and the special issue it introduces examine how narratives travel across scales to intersect with local struggles, reshaping conflict dynamics in drylands and beyond. By setting these new concepts against earlier framings, we show how climate and biodiversity crises transform scarcity into urgent planetary claims that risk reproducing inequality and conflict under the guise of green transition.

本文发展了全球绿色稀缺想象、绿色前沿和绿色冲突三个概念，重新审视当代气候和生物多样性危机下非洲的资源冲突辩论。早期的辩论将资源丰富与与环境压力、治理薄弱和社会分裂有关的稀缺进行了对比，但倾向于将稀缺视为一种物质事实。相反，我们认为，稀缺越来越被想象和政治化。全球绿色稀缺性设想将生态系统、资源和时间视为正在消失，以地球生存的名义进行紧急干预是合法的。这些想象产生了绿色前沿：面向未来的空间，在那里，保护、可再生能源和碳封存重新配置了土地权利和治理，通常是在长期被视为边缘的地区。在这些边界内，相互竞争的主张和排斥产生了绿色冲突：这些争端不是因为可持续发展项目而产生的，而是因为可持续发展项目而产生的，通常表现为缓慢的暴力。从非洲各地的案例中，本文及其介绍的特刊探讨了叙事如何跨越尺度，与当地斗争交叉，重塑旱地及其他地区的冲突动态。通过将这些新概念与早期框架相对照，我们展示了气候和生物多样性危机如何将稀缺转化为紧迫的地球诉求，这种诉求可能会在绿色转型的幌子下再现不平等和冲突。

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引用次数: 0

Official vigilantism 正式制度

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106978

Rebecca Hanson , Dorothy Kronick

Official vigilantism, or police officers’ extralegal punishment of perceived offenses, is often understood as the product of a repressive state. We show that official vigilantism can also arise in reaction to a state deemed insufficiently repressive. When criminal justice reform strengthens protections for suspects or defendants, police can turn to extralegal punishment as a substitute for newly disallowed tools of legal punishment. We investigate this dynamic in a case study. When Venezuela implemented criminal procedure reform in 1999, we find, some officers responded by killing those whom they could no longer arrest or detain. We then discuss the conditions under which rights-oriented reform can spark official vigilantism.

官方的治安维持主义，或警察对违法行为的法外惩罚，通常被理解为专制国家的产物。我们表明，官方的自卫行为也可能出现在对一个被认为镇压力度不够的国家的反应中。当刑事司法改革加强对嫌疑人或被告的保护时，警察可以转向法外惩罚，以替代新被禁止的法律惩罚工具。我们在一个案例研究中调查了这种动态。我们发现，当委内瑞拉在1999年实施刑事诉讼程序改革时，一些官员的反应是杀害那些他们无法再逮捕或拘留的人。然后，我们讨论了在何种条件下，以权利为导向的改革会引发官员的自卫行为。

引用次数: 0

A fuzzy-set QCA approach exploring the role of public and private debt in shaping environmental performance 一个模糊集QCA方法探索公共和私人债务在塑造环境绩效中的作用

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107213

Maria Pereira , Graça Miranda Silva , Filipe Coelho

Our study analyses the role of both private and public debt, in conjunction with other financial and institutional factors, in shaping environmental performance (EP). Prior research on debt and EP has yielded inconclusive results and neglected the role of private debt and the interplay of various intervening factors. We address these gaps by applying Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to data from 59 countries. We find multiple pathways to achieving both high and non-high EP, highlighting the lack of a single best approach. Additionally, the results denote that high (non-high) public or private debt does not constrain a high (non-high) EP. The findings also demonstrate that no single financial means, including either type of debt or GDP alone, is necessary by itself for achieving high EP; rather, a combination of at least two financial means is necessary for such an outcome. Relatedly, the absence of all financial means is not sufficient to achieve non-high EP. Moreover, the role of debt on EP tends to depend on the other factors with which it is combined. Finally, financial means must be combined with different mixes of institutional factors for achieving a high and a non-high EP. Hence, our results reconcile previously mixed findings by indicating that the role of private and public debt on EP is contingent on other factors. This underscores the importance of considering the complex interplay between factors influencing environmental outcomes. Accordingly, this research offers insights into theory and informs policy decisions targeting both economic growth and environmental sustainability.

我们的研究分析了私人和公共债务以及其他金融和制度因素在塑造环境绩效（EP）方面的作用。以往关于债务与经济效益的研究结果不确定，忽视了私人债务的作用以及各种干预因素的相互作用。我们通过对59个国家的数据应用模糊集定性比较分析来解决这些差距。我们发现实现高和非高EP的多种途径，强调缺乏单一的最佳方法。此外，结果表明，高（非高）公共或私人债务并不限制高（非高）EP。研究结果还表明，要实现高EP，单靠单一的金融手段（包括任何类型的债务或GDP）都不是必需的；相反，要取得这样的结果，至少需要两种财政手段的结合。相对而言，缺乏一切财政手段不足以实现非高EP。此外，债务对gdp的作用往往取决于与之相结合的其他因素。最后，财政手段必须与体制因素的不同组合相结合，以实现高和非高的经济效益。因此，我们的研究结果表明，私人和公共债务对gdp的作用取决于其他因素，从而调和了之前的混合发现。这强调了考虑影响环境结果的各种因素之间复杂的相互作用的重要性。因此，这项研究提供了理论见解，并为经济增长和环境可持续性的政策决策提供了信息。

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引用次数: 0

Kinship, dadon and patronage politics: The role of informal institutions in climate adaptation 亲属关系、父子关系和庇护政治：非正式制度在气候适应中的作用

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107216

Md. Masud-All-Kamal , S.M. Monirul Hassan , Julfiker Haidar

Institutions play a critical role in shaping individual and collective responses to climate change, yet little attention has been paid to understand the influence of informal institutions on climate adaptation. This research explores how rural informal institutions mediate adaptation responses of coastal communities in Bangladesh. Drawing on qualitative data collected from a fishing-dependent village in the central coastal region of Bangladesh that experienced recurrent displacement due to river erosion, the study engages with the emerging scholarship on institutional dimensions of climate change adaptation. Findings reveal that rural people predominantly rely on informal institutions such as kinship and dadon–an informal money lending system based on local networks–and patronage politics to address risks associated with riverbank erosions. While often exploitative, these informal institutions remain central to climate adaptation due to long-standing weakness of formal institutions. The analysis further suggests that an overreliance on such informal institutions may constrain the long-term adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities by reinforcing dependency and limiting transformative change. These findings provide a nuanced understanding of how informal institutions operate and interact with formal institutions in shaping adaptation outcomes.

机构在形成个人和集体对气候变化的反应方面发挥着关键作用，但很少有人注意了解非正式机构对气候适应的影响。本研究探讨了农村非正式机构如何调节孟加拉国沿海社区的适应反应。根据从孟加拉国中部沿海地区一个因河流侵蚀而经常流离失所的渔业村庄收集的定性数据，该研究结合了气候变化适应制度方面的新兴学术。调查结果显示，农村人口主要依靠亲属关系和dadon（一种基于地方网络的非正式借贷系统）等非正式制度，以及庇护政治来应对与河岸侵蚀相关的风险。这些非正式机构虽然往往具有剥削性，但由于正式机构的长期弱点，它们仍然是气候适应的核心。分析进一步表明，过度依赖这种非正式机构可能会加强依赖性并限制变革，从而限制脆弱社区的长期适应能力。这些发现提供了对非正式制度如何运作以及在形成适应结果方面与正式制度相互作用的细致理解。

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引用次数: 0

Decentering climate in vulnerability analysis: On aspiration, striving, and the fullness of life in uncertain times 脆弱性分析中的去中心化气候：论不确定时期的抱负、奋斗和生命的充实

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107214

Harry W. Fischer , Kamal Devkota , Divya Gupta , Dil B. Khatri

Vulnerability is a core concept within the environmental social sciences. Yet contemporary discussions often focus narrowly on specific kinds of risks, especially relating to climate, with particular attention to avoiding loss and harm. We recast vulnerability as an experientially grounded, cross-cutting concept by arguing for two analytical shifts. First, we decenter climate by analyzing how vulnerability unfolds across interconnected spheres of life within a broader life trajectory. Second, we argue for an understanding of vulnerability that is far more than avoiding loss but always experienced in relation to the lives people have reason to value and strive to build. We illustrate this framing by recounting three in-depth life histories complemented with observations from a broader sample of 52 households in rural Nepal, a context that has experienced significant climate, environmental, and other shocks in recent years. Our work reveals how these more dramatic events intersect with a wide range of everyday human concerns — health, labour, debt, care for loved ones, and the need for social belonging. We argue that a more experiential and cross-cutting understanding of vulnerability holds potential to support development pathways that better address people’s lived needs and aspirations in ways that recognize their sense of self and agency. More fundamentally, this framing provides insight into our shared human condition in present times, amidst mounting climate-related damages, a pandemic, wars, and continued political upheaval. If vulnerability is the propensity for loss and suffering, what lies in wait if it is to be addressed? To which future should we strive?

脆弱性是环境社会科学中的一个核心概念。然而，当代的讨论往往局限于特定类型的风险，特别是与气候有关的风险，特别关注如何避免损失和伤害。我们通过论证两个分析转变，将脆弱性重塑为一个基于经验的、跨领域的概念。首先，我们通过分析脆弱性如何在更广泛的生命轨迹中在相互关联的生命领域中展开，来分散气候。其次，我们主张对脆弱性的理解远不止是避免损失，而是总是与人们有理由珍视和努力建立的生活有关。我们通过叙述三个深入的生活史，并辅以对尼泊尔农村52个家庭的更广泛样本的观察，来说明这一框架，尼泊尔农村近年来经历了重大的气候、环境和其他冲击。我们的工作揭示了这些更戏剧性的事件是如何与人类日常关注的广泛问题——健康、劳动、债务、对亲人的照顾以及对社会归属感的需求——交织在一起的。我们认为，对脆弱性更有经验和跨领域的理解有可能支持发展道路，以承认人们的自我意识和能动性的方式更好地满足人们的生活需求和愿望。更重要的是，这一框架使我们能够深入了解当前与气候有关的损害日益严重、流行病、战争和持续的政治动荡中我们共同的人类状况。如果脆弱是对损失和痛苦的倾向，那么如果要解决它，等待着什么呢？我们应该为什么样的未来而奋斗？

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引用次数: 0

On unfounded claims of electoral fraud 毫无根据的选举舞弊指控

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107155

Nicolás Idrobo , Dorothy Kronick , Francisco Rodríguez

An article recently published in this journal claims to present statistical evidence of fraud in Bolivia’s controversial 2019 presidential election. These claims are significant not only for our understanding of a pivotal moment in Latin American politics but also because, as the authors note, their methods might inform how researchers investigate fraud in other cases. We explain why the evidence does not support the authors’ conclusions. They claim to find evidence of fraud based on: (1) a difference-in-differences, (2) a simple difference, and (3) regression discontinuity. But (1) the pre-trends are converging in the difference-indifferences, (2) there are many benign explanations for the simple difference, and (3) the regression discontinuity uses an arbitrarily chosen cutoff at which placebo outcomes are not smooth. Our objective is both to correct the record about this specific election and, more generally, to reiterate the risks of ad hoc election forensics.

该杂志最近发表的一篇文章声称，提供了玻利维亚有争议的2019年总统选举中存在欺诈行为的统计证据。这些说法不仅对我们理解拉丁美洲政治的关键时刻很重要，而且正如作者指出的那样，他们的方法可能会告诉研究人员如何调查其他案件中的欺诈行为。我们解释了为什么证据不支持作者的结论。他们声称找到欺诈的证据是基于：(1)差异中的差异，(2)简单差异，(3)回归不连续。但是(1)前趋势在差异-冷漠中是收敛的，(2)对于简单的差异有许多良性的解释，(3)回归不连续使用了一个任意选择的截止点，在这个截止点上安慰剂的结果并不顺利。我们的目标是纠正关于这次具体选举的记录，更一般地说，重申临时选举取证的风险。

引用次数: 0

Electoral effects of integrating forced migrants: Evidence from a Southern Country 强迫移民融入社会对选举的影响：来自南方国家的证据

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107190

Sandra V. Rozo , Alejandra Quintana , María José Urbina

How does easing the economic integration of forced migrants affect native voting behaviors in the Global South? We assess how a regularization program which facilitated the temporal economic integration of half a million Venezuelan forced migrants affected the electoral choices of Colombian voters. This is done by comparing the election results in municipalities with higher and lower take-up rates for the program, before and after its implementation. Our findings show negligible impacts of the program on native voting behavior. We also conducted a survey experiment to investigate the lack of voters’ response. Even after receiving information about the program, Colombian voters showed no changes in voting intentions or prosocial views towards migrants. Hence, voters’ indifference did not stem from a lack of awareness about the program. Instead, theoretical and qualitative evidence suggests that it may be potentially explained by (1) the absence of negative economic effects of the program, (2) the low media and political salience of the program, (3) the cultural proximity between Colombia and Venezuela, and (4) the stabilization of Venezuelan inflows into Colombia after 2018.

缓解被迫移民的经济融合如何影响全球南方的本地投票行为？我们评估了一项促进50万委内瑞拉被迫移民暂时经济融合的正规化计划如何影响哥伦比亚选民的选举选择。这是通过比较方案实施前后参照率较高和较低的城市的选举结果来实现的。我们的发现表明，该计划对当地投票行为的影响可以忽略不计。我们还进行了一项调查实验，调查选民的反应不足。即使在收到有关该计划的信息后，哥伦比亚选民在投票意向或对移民的亲社会观点方面也没有表现出任何变化。因此，选民的冷漠并非源于对该计划缺乏认识。相反，理论和定性证据表明，这可能有以下潜在原因：(1)该计划没有负面的经济影响，(2)该计划的媒体和政治知名度较低，(3)哥伦比亚和委内瑞拉之间的文化接近性，以及(4)2018年后委内瑞拉流入哥伦比亚的资金趋于稳定。

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引用次数: 0

Crop commercialization, structural change and income inequality: Insights from smallholder farmers in rural Southeast Asia 作物商业化、结构变化和收入不平等：来自东南亚农村小农的见解

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107212

Manh Hung Do, Trung Thanh Nguyen, Ulrike Grote

Structural change in agriculture is an integral part of economic development in developing economies. The process of structural change is accompanied by adjustments within and outside agriculture, such as the development of mechanization and the shift to non-farm employment. We examine the correlations of crop commercialization with structural change and assess how the benefits of crop commercialization are distributed across farm and total income quantiles. We use a balanced panel of 2,867 rural smallholder farmers collected from Thailand and Vietnam, two middle-income countries in Southeast Asia for empirical analyses. Our panel includes three survey waves conducted in 2010, 2013, and 2016 with a total of 8,601 observations. Regarding the correlation of crop commercialization with structural change, our simultaneous equation model results show that crop commercialization is positively related to crop mechanization. The results of fixed-effects estimation with a control function approach indicate that an increase in crop commercialization has a positive correlation with non-farm employment. Besides, the results of unconditional quantile regression models suggest that an increase in crop commercialization leads to an increase of about 25.4% and 5.6% in per capita farm income of smallholders in the 10th and 25th quantile groups, while it increases the per capita total income of smallholders in the 10th and 25th quantile groups by about 10.2% and 5.7%, respectively. Hence, we recommend facilitating the commercialization of crops by smallholder farmers to stimulate the structural transformation of agriculture at the micro level and to reduce income inequality of smallholder farmers.

农业结构变化是发展中经济体经济发展的一个组成部分。结构变化的过程伴随着农业内外的调整，如机械化的发展和向非农就业的转移。我们研究了作物商业化与结构变化的相关性，并评估了作物商业化的收益如何在农场和总收入分位数之间分配。我们使用来自泰国和越南这两个东南亚中等收入国家的2,867名农村小农的均衡面板进行实证分析。我们的小组包括2010年、2013年和2016年进行的三次调查，共有8601次观测。关于作物商品化与结构变化的关系，我们的联立方程模型结果表明，作物商品化与作物机械化呈正相关。采用控制函数法的固定效应估计结果表明，作物商品化程度的增加与非农就业呈正相关。此外，无条件分位数回归模型的结果表明，作物商品化程度的提高使第10和第25分位数小农的人均农业收入分别增加了25.4%和5.6%，使第10和第25分位数小农的人均总收入分别增加了10.2%和5.7%。因此，我们建议促进小农作物的商业化，以刺激微观层面的农业结构转型，减少小农的收入不平等。

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引用次数: 0

Unpaid care work for the elderly in Thailand: does the social gender norm on altruistic behavior matter? 泰国无薪照顾老人：利他行为的社会性别规范有影响吗？

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107201

Minh Tam Bui , Ivo Vlaev , Katsushi Imai

Ageing societies pose an increasing demand for elderly care, particularly in developing countries where formal long-term care infrastructure remains underdeveloped. In these contexts, unpaid family caregivers, especially women, play a crucial role. However, gender care gaps shaped by prevailing social gender norms are seldom quantified, and the underlying factors behind these gaps remain underexplored in the literature. This paper investigates gender differences in elderly caregiving and examines how social gender norms influence caregiving patterns. Using nationally representative Thai time-use data from 2014 to 15 and the Labor Force Survey from 2013 to 15, we address two main questions (i) How does the social gender norm around altruism affect the gender care gap for the elderly, directly or indirectly, and through which channels? and (ii) How do men and women trade off care burdens with paid work or leisure time? We contribute to the body of literature on unpaid care work by analyzing the gender differentials in trade-offs associated with elder caregiving as both main and secondary activities. We develop a novel altruistic time ratio (ATR), defined as the time individuals allocate to others relative to time spent on themselves. We quantify the social gender norm (SGN) as the gender mean difference in ATRs, aggregated at the district-area level. The wide variation of SGN across Thai regions offers a broader societal perspective beyond individual and household characteristics in understanding caregiving behavior. Our findings, derived from single and multi-equation Tobit models, reveal that (i) SGN increases elderly care time for women by inducing their ATR while reducing it for men and (ii) significant trade-offs exist between elderly care time, leisure time, and paid work. These results provide empirical evidence on how social expectations shape caregiving behaviors and underscore the importance of recognizing societal influences when designing policies that support equitable elder care arrangements beyond state-provided long-term care.

老龄化社会对老年人护理的需求日益增加，特别是在正规长期护理基础设施仍然不发达的发展中国家。在这些情况下，无偿的家庭照顾者，特别是妇女，发挥着至关重要的作用。然而，由主流社会性别规范形成的性别护理差距很少被量化，这些差距背后的潜在因素在文献中仍未得到充分探讨。本文探讨了老年护理的性别差异，并探讨了社会性别规范对老年护理模式的影响。利用具有全国代表性的泰国2014年至2015年的时间使用数据和2013年至2015年的劳动力调查，我们解决了两个主要问题：(i)利他主义的社会性别规范如何直接或间接影响老年人的性别照顾差距，以及通过哪些渠道？（二）男性和女性如何在照顾负担与有薪工作或闲暇时间之间进行权衡？我们通过分析与老年人护理作为主要和次要活动相关的权衡中的性别差异，为无偿护理工作的文献做出了贡献。我们开发了一种新的利他时间比率（ATR），定义为个人分配给他人的时间相对于花在自己身上的时间。我们将社会性别规范（SGN）量化为atr中的性别平均差异，并在区-区一级汇总。泰国各地区SGN的广泛差异为理解护理行为提供了一个超越个人和家庭特征的更广泛的社会视角。我们的研究结果来自单方程和多方程Tobit模型，揭示了(i) SGN通过诱导女性的ATR而增加了女性的老年护理时间，而减少了男性的ATR；（ii）老年护理时间、闲暇时间和有偿工作之间存在显著的权衡。这些结果为社会期望如何塑造护理行为提供了经验证据，并强调了在设计政策时认识到社会影响的重要性，这些政策支持公平的老年人护理安排，而不是国家提供的长期护理。

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引用次数: 0