Wind power plays a vital role in the electricity generation of many countries, including Ethiopia. It serves as a valuable complement to hydropower during the dry season, and its affordability is crucial for the growth of industrial centers. However, accurately estimating wind energy poses significant challenges due to its random nature, severe variability, and dependence on wind speed. Numerous techniques have been employed to tackle this problem, and recent research has shown that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models excel in prediction accuracy. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of different ANN network types in estimating the monthly average daily wind power at Adama Wind Farm I. The collected data was divided into three sets: training (70%), testing (15%), and validation (15%). Four network types, namely Feedforward Backpropagation (FFBP), Cascade Feedforward Backpropagation (CFBP), Error Backpropagation (EBP), and Levenberg–Marquardt (LR), were utilized with seven input parameters for prediction. The performance of these networks was evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and R-squared (R2). The EBP network type demonstrated exceptional performance in estimating wind power for all wind turbines in Groups GI, GII, and GIII. Additionally, all proposed network types achieved impressive accuracy levels with MAPE ranging from 0.0119 to 0.0489 and R2 values ranging from 0.982 to 0.9989. These results highlight the high predictive accuracy attained at the study site. Consequently, we can conclude that the ANN model’s network types were highly effective in predicting the monthly averaged daily wind power at Adama Wind Farm I. By leveraging the power of ANN models, this research contributes to improving wind energy estimation, thereby enabling more reliable and efficient utilization of wind resources. The findings of this study have practical implications for the wind energy industry and can guide decision-making processes regarding wind power generation and integration into the energy mix.
风能在包括埃塞俄比亚在内的许多国家的发电中发挥着至关重要的作用。在旱季，它是水力发电的重要补充，其经济性对工业中心的发展至关重要。然而，由于风能的随机性、严重的多变性和对风速的依赖性，准确估算风能面临着巨大挑战。为解决这一问题，人们采用了许多技术，最近的研究表明，人工神经网络（ANN）模型在预测准确性方面表现出色。本研究旨在评估不同类型的人工神经网络在估算 Adama 风电场 I 的月平均日风力发电量方面的有效性。收集的数据分为三组：训练（70%）、测试（15%）和验证（15%）。使用了四种网络类型，即前馈反向传播（FFBP）、级联前馈反向传播（CFBP）、误差反向传播（EBP）和 Levenberg-Marquardt （LR），并使用七个输入参数进行预测。使用平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 和 R 平方 (R2) 对这些网络的性能进行了评估。EBP 网络类型在估算 GI、GII 和 GIII 组所有风力涡轮机的风功率时表现出了卓越的性能。此外，所有提议的网络类型都达到了令人印象深刻的精度水平，MAPE 在 0.0119 到 0.0489 之间，R2 值在 0.982 到 0.9989 之间。这些结果凸显了研究地点所达到的高预测精度。因此，我们可以得出结论，ANN 模型的网络类型在预测 Adama 风电场 I 的月平均日风力发电量方面非常有效。通过利用 ANN 模型的强大功能，本研究有助于改进风能估算，从而更可靠、更高效地利用风能资源。本研究的结果对风能产业具有实际意义，可指导有关风力发电和将风能纳入能源组合的决策过程。
{"title":"Unleashing the power of artificial neural networks: accurate estimation of monthly averaged daily wind power at Adama wind farm I, Ethiopia","authors":"Tegenu Argaw Woldegiyorgis, Natei Ermias Benti, Birhanu Asmerom Habtemicheal and Ashenafi Admasu Jembrie","doi":"10.1088/2515-7620/ad592f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad592f","url":null,"abstract":"Wind power plays a vital role in the electricity generation of many countries, including Ethiopia. It serves as a valuable complement to hydropower during the dry season, and its affordability is crucial for the growth of industrial centers. However, accurately estimating wind energy poses significant challenges due to its random nature, severe variability, and dependence on wind speed. Numerous techniques have been employed to tackle this problem, and recent research has shown that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models excel in prediction accuracy. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of different ANN network types in estimating the monthly average daily wind power at Adama Wind Farm I. The collected data was divided into three sets: training (70%), testing (15%), and validation (15%). Four network types, namely Feedforward Backpropagation (FFBP), Cascade Feedforward Backpropagation (CFBP), Error Backpropagation (EBP), and Levenberg–Marquardt (LR), were utilized with seven input parameters for prediction. The performance of these networks was evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and R-squared (R2). The EBP network type demonstrated exceptional performance in estimating wind power for all wind turbines in Groups GI, GII, and GIII. Additionally, all proposed network types achieved impressive accuracy levels with MAPE ranging from 0.0119 to 0.0489 and R2 values ranging from 0.982 to 0.9989. These results highlight the high predictive accuracy attained at the study site. Consequently, we can conclude that the ANN model’s network types were highly effective in predicting the monthly averaged daily wind power at Adama Wind Farm I. By leveraging the power of ANN models, this research contributes to improving wind energy estimation, thereby enabling more reliable and efficient utilization of wind resources. The findings of this study have practical implications for the wind energy industry and can guide decision-making processes regarding wind power generation and integration into the energy mix.","PeriodicalId":48496,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Communications","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141551065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-02DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad5ad8
J P Evans and H M Imran
Model evaluations are performed by comparing a modelled quantity with an observation of that quantity and any deviation from this observed quantity is considered an error. We know that all observing systems have uncertainties, and multiple observational products for the same quantity can provide equally plausible ‘truths’. Thus, model errors depend on the choice of observation used in the evaluation exercise. We propose a method that considers models to be indistinguishable from observations when they lie within the range of observations, and hence are not assigned any error. Errors are assigned when models are outside the observational range. Errors calculated in this way can be used within traditional statistics to calculate the Observation Range Adjusted (ORA) version of that statistic. The ORA statistics highlight the measurable errors of models, provide more robust model performance rankings, and identify areas of the model where further model development is likely to lead to consistent model improvements.
{"title":"The observation range adjusted method: a novel approach to accounting for observation uncertainty in model evaluation","authors":"J P Evans and H M Imran","doi":"10.1088/2515-7620/ad5ad8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad5ad8","url":null,"abstract":"Model evaluations are performed by comparing a modelled quantity with an observation of that quantity and any deviation from this observed quantity is considered an error. We know that all observing systems have uncertainties, and multiple observational products for the same quantity can provide equally plausible ‘truths’. Thus, model errors depend on the choice of observation used in the evaluation exercise. We propose a method that considers models to be indistinguishable from observations when they lie within the range of observations, and hence are not assigned any error. Errors are assigned when models are outside the observational range. Errors calculated in this way can be used within traditional statistics to calculate the Observation Range Adjusted (ORA) version of that statistic. The ORA statistics highlight the measurable errors of models, provide more robust model performance rankings, and identify areas of the model where further model development is likely to lead to consistent model improvements.","PeriodicalId":48496,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Communications","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141551066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-02DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad5b3c
James McCall, Brenda Beatty, Jake Janski, Kate Doubleday, Jordan Martin, Heidi Hartmann, Leroy J Walston and Jordan Macknick
As more land is being utilized for large-scale solar energy projects, there are increasing discussions from stakeholders on how to utilize land under solar panels to promote biodiversity. One path is to plant habitat beneficial to pollinators and other insects, but there have been few long-term studies that examine how different vegetation and seed mixes establish underneath solar panels. This study addresses a scientific gap to determine whether native pollinator seed mixes successfully establish over time under solar arrays using a systematic assessment of eight seed mixes planted at three utility-scale solar sites in Minnesota. We assess establishment with a percent native coverage metric, which is an assessment of native species observations compared to total observations during percent cover analyses in our vegetative test plots. The percent native coverage metric allows for a measurement of how the seed mix established and how the seed mix persists over time. The percent native coverage under and in between the solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays rose from 10% after one year of planting to 58% after three years across all sites, while the native coverage of the full sun control area rose from 9.6% to 70% under the same period, showing that native prairie and pollinator plants successfully established under the array, although to a lesser extent than in full sun conditions. Percent native coverage under the PV arrays rose 5- to 8-fold for each of the three sites from over the course of the study, while the coverage of weeds decreased for all three sites over the same period. Percent native coverage varied by seed mix over the project years, but every seed mix experienced a higher percent native coverage year after year under the PV arrays. Our results did not indicate a difference in establishment across placement within the array; the center, west, and east portions of the areas in between panels had similar establishment rates at two out of three sites, indicating that the same seed mix can be applied throughout the array. Out of 101 plant species seeded, we observed the establishment of 68 species in our vegetative test plots, and we detailed the top 20 observed species to inform future seed mix development. Based on these findings, native pollinator vegetation can establish over time at solar arrays, and it can be suitable for creating habitat at utility-scale solar sites.
{"title":"Little prairie under the panel: testing native pollinator habitat seed mix establishment at three utility-scale solar sites in Minnesota","authors":"James McCall, Brenda Beatty, Jake Janski, Kate Doubleday, Jordan Martin, Heidi Hartmann, Leroy J Walston and Jordan Macknick","doi":"10.1088/2515-7620/ad5b3c","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad5b3c","url":null,"abstract":"As more land is being utilized for large-scale solar energy projects, there are increasing discussions from stakeholders on how to utilize land under solar panels to promote biodiversity. One path is to plant habitat beneficial to pollinators and other insects, but there have been few long-term studies that examine how different vegetation and seed mixes establish underneath solar panels. This study addresses a scientific gap to determine whether native pollinator seed mixes successfully establish over time under solar arrays using a systematic assessment of eight seed mixes planted at three utility-scale solar sites in Minnesota. We assess establishment with a percent native coverage metric, which is an assessment of native species observations compared to total observations during percent cover analyses in our vegetative test plots. The percent native coverage metric allows for a measurement of how the seed mix established and how the seed mix persists over time. The percent native coverage under and in between the solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays rose from 10% after one year of planting to 58% after three years across all sites, while the native coverage of the full sun control area rose from 9.6% to 70% under the same period, showing that native prairie and pollinator plants successfully established under the array, although to a lesser extent than in full sun conditions. Percent native coverage under the PV arrays rose 5- to 8-fold for each of the three sites from over the course of the study, while the coverage of weeds decreased for all three sites over the same period. Percent native coverage varied by seed mix over the project years, but every seed mix experienced a higher percent native coverage year after year under the PV arrays. Our results did not indicate a difference in establishment across placement within the array; the center, west, and east portions of the areas in between panels had similar establishment rates at two out of three sites, indicating that the same seed mix can be applied throughout the array. Out of 101 plant species seeded, we observed the establishment of 68 species in our vegetative test plots, and we detailed the top 20 observed species to inform future seed mix development. Based on these findings, native pollinator vegetation can establish over time at solar arrays, and it can be suitable for creating habitat at utility-scale solar sites.","PeriodicalId":48496,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Communications","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141518682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-30DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad5931
Catherine E Slavik, Daniel A Chapman, Hollie Smith, Michael Coughlan and Ellen Peters
Background. Wildfire smoke events are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. Children are especially vulnerable to health effects even at moderate smoke levels. However, it is unclear how parents respond to Air Quality Indices (AQIs) frequently used by agencies to communicate air pollution health risks. Methods. In an experiment (3 × 2 × 2 factorial design), 2,100 parents were randomly assigned to view one of twelve adapted AQI infographics that varied by visual (table, line, gauge), index type (AQI [0-500], AQHI [1-11+]), and risk level (moderate, high). Participants were told to imagine encountering the infographic in a short-term exposure scenario. They reported worry about wildfire smoke, intentions to take risk-mitigating actions (e.g., air purifier use), and support for various exposure reduction policies. Subsequently, participants were told to imagine encountering the same infographic daily during a school week in a long-term exposure scenario and again reported worry, action intentions, and policy support. Results. Parents’ responses significantly differentiated between risk levels that both pose a threat to children’s health; worry and action intentions were much higher in the high-risk group than the moderate-risk group in both short-exposure (F = 748.68 p<.001; F = 411.59, p<.001) and long-exposure scenarios (F = 470.51, p<.001; F = 212.01, p<.001). However, in the short-exposure scenario, when shown the AQHI [1-11+] with either the line or gauge visuals, parents’ action intentions were more similar between moderate- and high-risk level groups (3-way interaction, F = 6.03, p = .002). Conclusions. These results suggest some index formats such as the AQHI—rather than the AQI—may better attune parents to moderate levels of wildfire smoke being dangerous to children’s health. Our research offers insights for agencies and officials seeking to improve current public education efforts during wildfire smoke events and speaks to the critical need to educate parents and help them act short-term and long-term to protect children’s health.
{"title":"Motivating parents to protect their children from wildfire smoke: the impact of air quality index infographics","authors":"Catherine E Slavik, Daniel A Chapman, Hollie Smith, Michael Coughlan and Ellen Peters","doi":"10.1088/2515-7620/ad5931","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad5931","url":null,"abstract":"Background. Wildfire smoke events are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. Children are especially vulnerable to health effects even at moderate smoke levels. However, it is unclear how parents respond to Air Quality Indices (AQIs) frequently used by agencies to communicate air pollution health risks. Methods. In an experiment (3 × 2 × 2 factorial design), 2,100 parents were randomly assigned to view one of twelve adapted AQI infographics that varied by visual (table, line, gauge), index type (AQI [0-500], AQHI [1-11+]), and risk level (moderate, high). Participants were told to imagine encountering the infographic in a short-term exposure scenario. They reported worry about wildfire smoke, intentions to take risk-mitigating actions (e.g., air purifier use), and support for various exposure reduction policies. Subsequently, participants were told to imagine encountering the same infographic daily during a school week in a long-term exposure scenario and again reported worry, action intentions, and policy support. Results. Parents’ responses significantly differentiated between risk levels that both pose a threat to children’s health; worry and action intentions were much higher in the high-risk group than the moderate-risk group in both short-exposure (F = 748.68 p<.001; F = 411.59, p<.001) and long-exposure scenarios (F = 470.51, p<.001; F = 212.01, p<.001). However, in the short-exposure scenario, when shown the AQHI [1-11+] with either the line or gauge visuals, parents’ action intentions were more similar between moderate- and high-risk level groups (3-way interaction, F = 6.03, p = .002). Conclusions. These results suggest some index formats such as the AQHI—rather than the AQI—may better attune parents to moderate levels of wildfire smoke being dangerous to children’s health. Our research offers insights for agencies and officials seeking to improve current public education efforts during wildfire smoke events and speaks to the critical need to educate parents and help them act short-term and long-term to protect children’s health.","PeriodicalId":48496,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Communications","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141518683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-30DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad59f3
Abreham Birhane Kassay, Abraham Woldemichael Tuhar, Mihret Dananto Ulsido and Markos Mathewos Godebo
Hawassa characterizes a typical developing city in Ethiopia, owning to rapid urban growth and demographic trends. The combined effect of climate change and urban expansion is increasing the challenge to the environment and the services it provides. Relating changing environments with urban water management (UWM) is required to build resilience in the urban environment. This research analyzed local climate change and urban growth and linked it to UWM. The historical period 1990–2021 of daily rainfall, temperature variables, four satellite imageries, and DEM were analyzed. Changes in rainfall (annual and daily maximum) and temperature (maximum and minimum) trends are detected and projected to 2051 using a statistical-based model. With geospatial techniques sub-watersheds are delineated, and the urban cover change is quantified. The trend detection result implies an upward trend of annual and daily maximum rainfalls however a significance is insufficient (p > 0.05) to associate it with climate change during the study period. Maximum and minimum temperatures change indicate a positive and significant trend. The forecasting result suggests an increment of both temperatures (0.5 °C–1.5 °C) to the projected period compared to historical scenario. The land cover analysis results show the built-up area changed from 11.6 km2 (7.2%) to 42.5 km2 (26.5%) during the historical period, where the rate varies spatially. The surface runoff increased by 30.7% in the urban watersheds. With a growth rate of 8.9% built-up, the urban area will cover 73.6 km2 (45.9%) for the predicted period. The research finding justifies the potential to reorganize the relationship between the spatial effect of climate change and urban growth on UWM. Considering distinct characteristics of urban watershed, exposure to flooding risk, access to water demand and resilient to climate change have spatial variation. Thus, a local-specific planning approach will support effective UWM and climate adaptation for sustainable city development.
{"title":"Statistical-based spatial analysis on urban water management under changing environments: a case study of Hawassa, Ethiopia","authors":"Abreham Birhane Kassay, Abraham Woldemichael Tuhar, Mihret Dananto Ulsido and Markos Mathewos Godebo","doi":"10.1088/2515-7620/ad59f3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad59f3","url":null,"abstract":"Hawassa characterizes a typical developing city in Ethiopia, owning to rapid urban growth and demographic trends. The combined effect of climate change and urban expansion is increasing the challenge to the environment and the services it provides. Relating changing environments with urban water management (UWM) is required to build resilience in the urban environment. This research analyzed local climate change and urban growth and linked it to UWM. The historical period 1990–2021 of daily rainfall, temperature variables, four satellite imageries, and DEM were analyzed. Changes in rainfall (annual and daily maximum) and temperature (maximum and minimum) trends are detected and projected to 2051 using a statistical-based model. With geospatial techniques sub-watersheds are delineated, and the urban cover change is quantified. The trend detection result implies an upward trend of annual and daily maximum rainfalls however a significance is insufficient (p > 0.05) to associate it with climate change during the study period. Maximum and minimum temperatures change indicate a positive and significant trend. The forecasting result suggests an increment of both temperatures (0.5 °C–1.5 °C) to the projected period compared to historical scenario. The land cover analysis results show the built-up area changed from 11.6 km2 (7.2%) to 42.5 km2 (26.5%) during the historical period, where the rate varies spatially. The surface runoff increased by 30.7% in the urban watersheds. With a growth rate of 8.9% built-up, the urban area will cover 73.6 km2 (45.9%) for the predicted period. The research finding justifies the potential to reorganize the relationship between the spatial effect of climate change and urban growth on UWM. Considering distinct characteristics of urban watershed, exposure to flooding risk, access to water demand and resilient to climate change have spatial variation. Thus, a local-specific planning approach will support effective UWM and climate adaptation for sustainable city development.","PeriodicalId":48496,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Communications","volume":"80 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141518684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-30DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad5ad7
Nguyen Xuan Tong, Nguyen Thi Thanh Thao and Le Hung Anh
This study was conducted to determine the surface water quality and health risks in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) canals. 180 water samples and 180 sediment samples were collected from 15 canal locations in HCMC in 2021 and 2022. The Water Quality Index (WQI) assessment results indicated that the water quality in 2021 ranged from unsuitable to good, with a trend towards improvement in 2022, where good quality water was predominant. TMs PCA/FA identified domestic and agricultural wastewater from HCMC residents as influencing the water quality. Most TMs detected in surface water were within the limits the Vietnamese Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment allowed, except for Pb in 2022 (> 0.02 mg l−1). For sediments, TMs concentrations were higher than in water samples but showed a decreasing trend over the survey period in the order of Hg < Cd < As < Pb < Cu. The findings show that sediments are more strongly affected by TMs than surface water, with the main sources being industrial and agricultural human activities. The non-cancer risk assessment showed that children are more exposed to TMs than adults, mainly through ingestion. Additionally, the cancer risk assessment (CR) identified As in sediments as posing an unacceptable cancer risk (TCR > 1 × 10−4). Therefore, it is necessary to establish high-frequency monitoring policies to analyze and reduce TMs concentrations in water and sediments of the canals to protect human health.
{"title":"Assessment of water quality, heavy metal pollution and human health risks in the Canal system of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam","authors":"Nguyen Xuan Tong, Nguyen Thi Thanh Thao and Le Hung Anh","doi":"10.1088/2515-7620/ad5ad7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad5ad7","url":null,"abstract":"This study was conducted to determine the surface water quality and health risks in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) canals. 180 water samples and 180 sediment samples were collected from 15 canal locations in HCMC in 2021 and 2022. The Water Quality Index (WQI) assessment results indicated that the water quality in 2021 ranged from unsuitable to good, with a trend towards improvement in 2022, where good quality water was predominant. TMs PCA/FA identified domestic and agricultural wastewater from HCMC residents as influencing the water quality. Most TMs detected in surface water were within the limits the Vietnamese Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment allowed, except for Pb in 2022 (> 0.02 mg l−1). For sediments, TMs concentrations were higher than in water samples but showed a decreasing trend over the survey period in the order of Hg < Cd < As < Pb < Cu. The findings show that sediments are more strongly affected by TMs than surface water, with the main sources being industrial and agricultural human activities. The non-cancer risk assessment showed that children are more exposed to TMs than adults, mainly through ingestion. Additionally, the cancer risk assessment (CR) identified As in sediments as posing an unacceptable cancer risk (TCR > 1 × 10−4). Therefore, it is necessary to establish high-frequency monitoring policies to analyze and reduce TMs concentrations in water and sediments of the canals to protect human health.","PeriodicalId":48496,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Communications","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141518685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-26DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad53a6
Shanshan Zhao, Ying Li, Dajun Zhao and Yundi Jiang
In Guangdong Province, China, known as a hotspot for tropical cyclone (TC) and rainstorm disasters, investigating the role of hazard factors for both TC and rainstorm disasters is of great scientific and operational importance. Daily observational data from meteorological stations along with rainstorm/TC disaster loss data at the county level in Guangdong during 2001–2020 were analyzed to compare the characteristics of rainstorm and TC disasters. During the study period, although non-TC rainstorm rainfall in Guangdong was generally greater than TC rainstorm rainfall, TC disaster losses were double those of rainstorm disasters. Non-TC rainstorms and their losses predominantly occurred during the first flood season, whereas TC disaster primarily occurred in the second flood season. Although regional-average TC rainstorm rainfall was similar to non-TC rainstorm rainfall during the second flood season in Guangdong, it was greater than non-TC rainstorm rainfall in western Guangdong. Additionally, the coastal areas were frequently affected by TC strong winds, resulting in greater TC disaster losses than rainstorm disaster losses. The maximum daily precipitation was significantly correlated with rainstorm disaster losses. In areas influenced by both TC strong winds and rainstorms, TC disaster losses exhibited a significant positive correlation with the daily maximum wind speed, and the combined effect of strong winds and rainstorms led to greater disaster losses than with TC rainstorms alone. These findings emphasize the effects of TC strong wind and storm surges, besides those of heavy rainfall, in coastal areas of China when assessing the risks related to TC disasters.
{"title":"Assessing hotspot for tropical cyclone compound rainstorms from a disaster perspective: a case study in Guangdong, China","authors":"Shanshan Zhao, Ying Li, Dajun Zhao and Yundi Jiang","doi":"10.1088/2515-7620/ad53a6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad53a6","url":null,"abstract":"In Guangdong Province, China, known as a hotspot for tropical cyclone (TC) and rainstorm disasters, investigating the role of hazard factors for both TC and rainstorm disasters is of great scientific and operational importance. Daily observational data from meteorological stations along with rainstorm/TC disaster loss data at the county level in Guangdong during 2001–2020 were analyzed to compare the characteristics of rainstorm and TC disasters. During the study period, although non-TC rainstorm rainfall in Guangdong was generally greater than TC rainstorm rainfall, TC disaster losses were double those of rainstorm disasters. Non-TC rainstorms and their losses predominantly occurred during the first flood season, whereas TC disaster primarily occurred in the second flood season. Although regional-average TC rainstorm rainfall was similar to non-TC rainstorm rainfall during the second flood season in Guangdong, it was greater than non-TC rainstorm rainfall in western Guangdong. Additionally, the coastal areas were frequently affected by TC strong winds, resulting in greater TC disaster losses than rainstorm disaster losses. The maximum daily precipitation was significantly correlated with rainstorm disaster losses. In areas influenced by both TC strong winds and rainstorms, TC disaster losses exhibited a significant positive correlation with the daily maximum wind speed, and the combined effect of strong winds and rainstorms led to greater disaster losses than with TC rainstorms alone. These findings emphasize the effects of TC strong wind and storm surges, besides those of heavy rainfall, in coastal areas of China when assessing the risks related to TC disasters.","PeriodicalId":48496,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Communications","volume":"165 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141508185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-26DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad5930
Maximilian Schulte, Ragnar Jonsson, Torun Hammar, Jeannette Eggers, Johan Stendahl and Per-Anders Hansson
Climate change mitigation by increased paper recycling can alleviate the two-sided pressure on the Swedish forest sector: supplying growing demands for wood-based products and increasing the forest carbon sink. This study assesses two scenarios for making use of a reduced demand for primary pulp resulting from an increased paper recycling rate in Sweden, from the present 72% to 78%. A Conservation scenario uses the saved primary pulp to reduce pulplog harvests so as to increase the forest carbon sink concomitant with constant overall wood product supply. In contrast, a Substitution scenario uses the saved primary pulp to produce man-made cellulosic fibers (MMCF) from dissolving pulp replacing cotton fiber, implying increased overall wood product supply. Our results suggest that utilizing efficiency gains in paper recycling to reduce pulplog harvests is better from a climate change mitigation perspective than producing additional MMCF to substitute cotton fiber. This conclusion holds even when assuming the use of by-products from dissolving pulp making and an indirect increase in MMCF availability. Hence, unless joint improvements across the value chain materialize, the best climate change mitigation option from increased paper recycling in Sweden would seemingly be to reduce fellings rather than producing additional MMCF.
{"title":"Climate change mitigation from increased paper recycling in Sweden: conserving forests or utilizing substitution?","authors":"Maximilian Schulte, Ragnar Jonsson, Torun Hammar, Jeannette Eggers, Johan Stendahl and Per-Anders Hansson","doi":"10.1088/2515-7620/ad5930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad5930","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change mitigation by increased paper recycling can alleviate the two-sided pressure on the Swedish forest sector: supplying growing demands for wood-based products and increasing the forest carbon sink. This study assesses two scenarios for making use of a reduced demand for primary pulp resulting from an increased paper recycling rate in Sweden, from the present 72% to 78%. A Conservation scenario uses the saved primary pulp to reduce pulplog harvests so as to increase the forest carbon sink concomitant with constant overall wood product supply. In contrast, a Substitution scenario uses the saved primary pulp to produce man-made cellulosic fibers (MMCF) from dissolving pulp replacing cotton fiber, implying increased overall wood product supply. Our results suggest that utilizing efficiency gains in paper recycling to reduce pulplog harvests is better from a climate change mitigation perspective than producing additional MMCF to substitute cotton fiber. This conclusion holds even when assuming the use of by-products from dissolving pulp making and an indirect increase in MMCF availability. Hence, unless joint improvements across the value chain materialize, the best climate change mitigation option from increased paper recycling in Sweden would seemingly be to reduce fellings rather than producing additional MMCF.","PeriodicalId":48496,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Communications","volume":"213 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141518608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-11DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad5250
Jaswant Moher, Soumi Dutta, Vimlesh Pant and Sagnik Dey
Understanding the climatic trends in cloud fraction (fc) and its drivers is critical in climate science. Here, we analyzed 40 years (1979–2018) of hourly fc data at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial scale from ERA5 to examine the trends in the 3D distribution of fc over the oceanic region adjacent to the Indian Subcontinent in view of its drivers. We found that the mid-level fc (MCF) and high-level fc (HCF) have increased by 0.05 and 0.05–0.12 fraction in the last four decades in this region. On the contrary, the low-level fc (LCF) decreased by 0.04 fraction, resulting in a net marginal increase in total fc. The observed contrasting trends in LCF, MCF and HCF are manifestations of the changes in sea surface temperature and meteorological conditions. Although LCF showed a regionally averaged declining trend, it has increased over the south-southwestern part of the domain. The increasing trend of MCF and HCF can be attributed to the increase in natural convection due to surface warming. Our results suggest that the observed contrasting trends might have resulted in positive radiative feedback on the Indian Ocean warming.
{"title":"Contrasting temporal trends in low-level clouds and mid- and high-level clouds over the Indian Ocean in the last four decades (1979–2018)","authors":"Jaswant Moher, Soumi Dutta, Vimlesh Pant and Sagnik Dey","doi":"10.1088/2515-7620/ad5250","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad5250","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the climatic trends in cloud fraction (fc) and its drivers is critical in climate science. Here, we analyzed 40 years (1979–2018) of hourly fc data at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial scale from ERA5 to examine the trends in the 3D distribution of fc over the oceanic region adjacent to the Indian Subcontinent in view of its drivers. We found that the mid-level fc (MCF) and high-level fc (HCF) have increased by 0.05 and 0.05–0.12 fraction in the last four decades in this region. On the contrary, the low-level fc (LCF) decreased by 0.04 fraction, resulting in a net marginal increase in total fc. The observed contrasting trends in LCF, MCF and HCF are manifestations of the changes in sea surface temperature and meteorological conditions. Although LCF showed a regionally averaged declining trend, it has increased over the south-southwestern part of the domain. The increasing trend of MCF and HCF can be attributed to the increase in natural convection due to surface warming. Our results suggest that the observed contrasting trends might have resulted in positive radiative feedback on the Indian Ocean warming.","PeriodicalId":48496,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Communications","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141518609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-30DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad4513
Shohei Tokito, Yuya Nakamoto and Tesshu Hanaka
Although durable goods with low energy consumption are being promoted to achieve a decarbonised society, from the perspective of life-cycle assessment, the choice of new durable goods may increase CO2 emissions. To address this problem, research has been conducted on product replacement based on life-cycle optimisation (LCO), a method for identifying a replacement life span that minimises life-cycle CO2 emissions. However, several additional assumptions complicate the analysis of replacement patterns of products and conditional formulas because cumulative emissions do not increase linearly when considering energy mix and technology improvement, and it is difficult to extend the model to optimisation methods in previous LCO studies. This study developed a new LCO approach by applying the shortest path problem to graph theory. Our methodology can contribute to the following: (i) it is computationally inexpensive; (ii) it is intuitively easy to add complex conditions, such as various policy scenarios and parameter changes; and (iii) once the graph of replacement patterns is defined, the optimal solution can be derived using existing solution methods, such as the Dijkstra algorithm. As a case study, we focused on vehicle replacement, which is a major source of CO2 emissions and is being electrified. In particular, we identified vehicle switching paths that minimise life-cycle CO2 emissions by considering changes in Japan's energy mix and alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) characteristics. We determined that the optimal vehicle replacement path method to reduce CO2 emissions is to switch first to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and then to battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Thus, we suggest that the transition to electric vehicles requires a step-by-step process. This methodology is not only conducive to AFV deployment for decarbonisation but can also be applied to other products, such as air conditioners and lighting. Thus, various transition policies could be formulated using our methodology.
{"title":"An application of the graph approach to life-cycle optimisation of vehicle electrification","authors":"Shohei Tokito, Yuya Nakamoto and Tesshu Hanaka","doi":"10.1088/2515-7620/ad4513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad4513","url":null,"abstract":"Although durable goods with low energy consumption are being promoted to achieve a decarbonised society, from the perspective of life-cycle assessment, the choice of new durable goods may increase CO2 emissions. To address this problem, research has been conducted on product replacement based on life-cycle optimisation (LCO), a method for identifying a replacement life span that minimises life-cycle CO2 emissions. However, several additional assumptions complicate the analysis of replacement patterns of products and conditional formulas because cumulative emissions do not increase linearly when considering energy mix and technology improvement, and it is difficult to extend the model to optimisation methods in previous LCO studies. This study developed a new LCO approach by applying the shortest path problem to graph theory. Our methodology can contribute to the following: (i) it is computationally inexpensive; (ii) it is intuitively easy to add complex conditions, such as various policy scenarios and parameter changes; and (iii) once the graph of replacement patterns is defined, the optimal solution can be derived using existing solution methods, such as the Dijkstra algorithm. As a case study, we focused on vehicle replacement, which is a major source of CO2 emissions and is being electrified. In particular, we identified vehicle switching paths that minimise life-cycle CO2 emissions by considering changes in Japan's energy mix and alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) characteristics. We determined that the optimal vehicle replacement path method to reduce CO2 emissions is to switch first to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and then to battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Thus, we suggest that the transition to electric vehicles requires a step-by-step process. This methodology is not only conducive to AFV deployment for decarbonisation but can also be applied to other products, such as air conditioners and lighting. Thus, various transition policies could be formulated using our methodology.","PeriodicalId":48496,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Communications","volume":"86 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141192432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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