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Study on the characteristics and scenario simulation of land use change in the Chaohu Lake Basin, China 中国巢湖流域土地利用变化特征与情景模拟研究
IF 2.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad75ed
Yunfeng Ruan, Chunyu Jiao and Yashu Duan
Effectively evaluating the historical and future land use/cover change (LUCC) is significant for effective land use planning and management, ecological conservation, and restoration. Taking the Chaohu Lake Basin (CLB) as the study area, GIS technology and geographic detector were used to quantitatively analyze the change characteristics and driving factors of LUCC under the three periods in 2000, 2010, and 2020 of the CLB. This study aimed to comprehend the alterations that have transpired over the last two decades. In addition, the PLUS model was utilized to forecast LUCC trends under three scenarios: natural development, urban development, and ecological protection by 2030 in the CLB. The results suggest a significant decrease of the cultivated land area, while a considerable increase for the construction land area from 2000 to 2020 in the CLB. The expansion of the construction land area was mainly driven by the conversion of cultivated land area. Additionally, the slope was identified as the primary factor influencing LUCC, with q-values of 0.275, 0.266, and 0.258 in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. The interaction between slope and soil type, distance to the trunk road and the secondary trunk road, and GDP was strong. The explanatory capacity of socioeconomic factors demonstrated a steady increase. The simulation results indicate that a decrease in cultivated land area and an increase in construction land area still occurred by 2030 in the CLB, particularly in the urban development scenario. Nonetheless, a notable deceleration of change was appeared in the ecological protection scenario. The alterations in forest and grassland areas were not significant. However, the water bodies area continued to enlarge, although the expansion was not substantial. The study results can provide policy references for the scientific management and long-term strategic planning of land resources in the CLB.
有效评价历史和未来土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)对有效的土地利用规划和管理、生态保护和恢复具有重要意义。本研究以巢湖流域为研究区域,利用地理信息系统(GIS)技术和地理探测仪,定量分析了巢湖流域2000年、2010年和2020年三个时期土地利用/植被变化的变化特征和驱动因素。该研究旨在了解过去二十年间发生的变化。此外,还利用 PLUS 模型预测了 2030 年中国北部地区在自然发展、城市发展和生态保护三种情景下的 LUCC 趋势。结果表明,从 2000 年到 2020 年,中国沿海地区的耕地面积大幅减少,而建设用地面积则大幅增加。建设用地面积的扩大主要是由于耕地面积的转化。此外,坡度被认为是影响土地覆被率的主要因素,2000 年、2010 年和 2020 年的 q 值分别为 0.275、0.266 和 0.258。坡度与土壤类型、到主干道和次干道的距离以及国内生产总值之间的交互作用很强。社会经济因素的解释能力稳步上升。模拟结果表明,到 2030 年,CLB 仍会出现耕地面积减少和建设用地面积增加的情况,尤其是在城市发展情景下。不过,在生态保护情景下,变化速度明显放缓。森林和草地面积变化不大。不过,水体面积继续扩大,尽管扩大幅度不大。研究结果可为中国浐灞土地资源的科学管理和长远战略规划提供政策参考。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling N2O emissions with remotely sensed variables using machine learning 使用机器学习利用遥感变量建立一氧化二氮排放模型
IF 2.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad707c
Paul R Adler, Hai Nguyen, Benjamin M Rau and Curtis J Dell
Nitrous oxide is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions from crop production. There is significant interest in targeting marginal lands for growing biomass crops, however little information is available on how this will affect N2O emissions from these crops. Furthermore, to characterize N2O emission at the farm level to quantify mitigation using measurements is time intensive, costly, and impractical. We selected a highly diverse watershed varying in soil texture and topography to compare two approaches for modeling soil N2O emissions using machine learning, intensive measurements of soil environment and climate variables, with the other only using remotely sensed variables. We confirmed that soil nitrogen was the most important variable followed by soil environment as influence by soil characteristic, topography, and climate. We also found that the machine learning model built on remotely sensed variables performed as well as when direct site level measurements were available. This finding supports the potential of using remotely sensed data to build machine learning models to characterize soil N2O emissions without the need for intensive soil measurements for entity level assessments.
一氧化二氮是作物生产中最大的温室气体排放源。人们对在贫瘠土地上种植生物质能作物兴趣浓厚,但关于这将如何影响这些作物的一氧化二氮排放的信息却少之又少。此外,要在农场层面确定一氧化二氮的排放特征,并通过测量来量化减排效果,既费时、费钱,又不切实际。我们选择了一个土壤质地和地形各不相同的高度多样化流域,比较了两种利用机器学习、土壤环境和气候变量密集测量来模拟土壤一氧化二氮排放的方法,另一种仅使用遥感变量。我们证实,土壤氮是最重要的变量,其次是受土壤特性、地形和气候影响的土壤环境。我们还发现,基于遥感变量建立的机器学习模型与直接现场测量的结果一样好。这一发现支持了利用遥感数据建立机器学习模型来描述土壤一氧化二氮排放特征的潜力,而无需对土壤进行深入测量来进行实体水平评估。
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引用次数: 0
Optimisation of decision-making on risk management strategy for the hydromelioration systems in biosphere reserves 优化生物圈保护区水质净化系统风险管理战略决策
IF 2.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad75ef
Tetiana Pokshevnytska and Yuliia Khrutba
The field of nature conservation in Ukraine is currently experiencing a profound crisis. In light of the mounting risks to Ukraine’s ecosystems, it is of paramount importance that conservation planning incorporates risk management strategies. In the aftermath of the Chernobyl disaster, the management of water bodies in the Exclusion Zone assumed paramount importance, given that the rivers had become the primary conduit for the transportation of radioactive substances. It is therefore imperative to evaluate the risks and vulnerabilities of climate change on Ukraine’s most developed economic sectors, population, and natural ecosystems. This will facilitate comprehension of the prospective consequences of climate change, ascertain the extent of potential losses, and inform decision-making aimed at reducing or preventing such losses in a timely manner. One of the primary challenges facing specialists at the Chornobyl Radiation and Ecological Biosphere Reserve, in addition to other organisations and enterprises of the State Agency of Ukraine on Exclusion Zone Management and scientific institutions, is the assessment of the feasibility of hydromelioration systems. It is of the utmost importance that a scientifically sound methodological approach be employed in order to ensure the reliability and validity of the results obtained through the assessment of risks and vulnerabilities to climate change. In this context, the utilisation of adaptive methodologies is of paramount importance for the development of risk management strategies. One such methodology is the Methodology for Risk Analysis and Information Management for Strategic Ecosystems (MARISCO). This article considers the potential deployment of the MARISCO adaptive method as a universal methodology for the analysis of environmental issues, with a view to informing decision-making on risk management strategies in the Chornobyl Radiation and Ecological Biosphere Reserve.
乌克兰的自然保护领域目前正在经历一场深刻的危机。鉴于乌克兰生态系统面临的风险越来越大,将风险管理战略纳入保护规划至关重要。切尔诺贝利灾难发生后,由于河流已成为放射性物质运输的主要通道,禁区内的水体管理变得至关重要。因此,必须评估气候变化对乌克兰最发达的经济部门、人口和自然生态系统造成的风险和脆弱性。这将有助于理解气候变化的预期后果,确定潜在损失的程度,并为旨在及时减少或预防此类损失的决策提供信息。切尔诺贝利辐射与生态生物圈保护区的专家以及乌克兰国家禁区管理署的其他组织和企业以及科研机构面临的主要挑战之一是评估水质改良系统的可行性。最重要的是采用科学合理的方法,以确保通过评估气候变化的风险和脆弱性而获得的结果的可靠性和有效性。在这种情况下,采用适应性方法对制定风险管理战略至关重要。战略生态系统风险分析和信息管理方法(MARISCO)就是这样一种方法。本文探讨了将 MARISCO 适应性方法作为分析环境问题的通用方法的可能性,以期为切尔诺贝利辐射与生态生物圈保护区的风险管理战略决策提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
SMOS captures variations in SSS fronts during El Niño and La Niña SMOS 捕捉到厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜期间 SSS 锋面的变化
IF 2.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad744a
Jiahao Li and Ling Du
The launch of the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite has promoted research on sea surface salinity (SSS) and salinity fronts (SF). The SF in the central Pacific Ocean is influenced by El Niño and La Niña events, and the physical processes involved are complex. In this study, we evaluated the ability of the SMOS product from the Barcelona Expert Centre (BEC) to retrieve SF using a simple and intuitive method. Furthermore, this study investigated seasonal variations in the SF and its response to El Niño and La Niña events. The accuracy of the SMOS BEC L4 SSS is sufficient for studying SF. By selecting reasonable SF thresholds and analyzing its locations and intensities, in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, SF can be divided into two: northern and southern SF. The variability in the northern SF is primarily influenced by the migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), whereas both freshwater flux and salt advection are the primary factors in the southern SF. They correspond to El Niño and La Niña events through freshwater flux and salt advection. These findings can provide information for the study of the SF based on satellite data and enhance our understanding of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics.
土壤水分和海洋盐度(SMOS)卫星的发射促进了对海面盐度(SSS)和盐度锋面(SF)的研究。太平洋中部的盐度锋受厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象的影响,其中涉及的物理过程非常复杂。在这项研究中,我们用一种简单直观的方法评估了巴塞罗那专家中心(BEC)的 SMOS 产品检索 SF 的能力。此外,本研究还调查了 SF 的季节变化及其对厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件的响应。SMOS BEC L4 SSS 的精度足以研究 SF。通过选择合理的SF阈值并分析其位置和强度,在赤道太平洋中部,SF可分为两种:北部和南部SF。北部 SF 的变化主要受热带辐合带(ITCZ)移动的影响,而淡水通量和盐分平流是南部 SF 的主要因素。它们通过淡水通量和盐分平流与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件相对应。这些发现可为基于卫星数据的 SF 研究提供信息,并加深我们对厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)动力学的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Economic and environmental assessment of the Korea urban railway and its greenhouse gas mitigation potential 韩国城市铁路及其温室气体减排潜力的经济和环境评估
IF 2.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad5a6b
Wonwoo Jeong and HyeMin Park
Railways can simultaneously transport large quantities of freight and passengers, making them energy-efficient and economical modes of transportation. Changing the materials that constitute a significant portion of rail track systems can help mitigate climate change. Gravel and concrete trackbed methods are commonly employed in railway construction. This study proposes the utilization of the asphalt concrete trackbed method, which is currently being researched and developed in South Korea, in addition to traditional gravel and cement concrete methods, and presents its economic feasibility and environmental benefits. The asphalt concrete trackbed method, which has already been implemented in regions such as China, Australia, and Europe, can also be applied in other areas. This study analyzed the carbon emissions and economic feasibility in the construction, usage, and disposal stages of cement concrete and asphalt concrete trackbeds. Previous research on carbon emissions analysis has faced challenges in applying geographical and climatic, as well as energy sources, to individual cases in the context of construction in Korea. Using the Korean Life Cycle Inventory database, this study indicated that asphalt concrete exhibits approximately 2.65-times lower carbon emissions than cement concrete. In Korea, railway construction involves 1,998 tons of asphalt concrete mixture, 1,820 cubic meters of cement concrete, and 59 tons of rebar per kilometer. Furthermore, the asphalt concrete trackbed method shows potential cost savings of approximately 29,000 EUR when converted to the 2021 EAU value. Thus, asphalt concrete trackbeds not only provide environmental benefits, they are also economically viable. However, further research is required to establish precise standards for on-site construction. This study is expected to provide foundational data for promoting the widespread adoption of asphalt concrete trackbeds in areas that produce asphalt concrete.
铁路可以同时运输大量的货物和乘客,是一种既节能又经济的运输方式。改变轨道系统的主要材料有助于减缓气候变化。砾石和混凝土路基是铁路建设中常用的方法。本研究提出,除传统的碎石和水泥混凝土方法外,韩国目前正在研究和开发沥青混凝土轨道床方法,并介绍了其经济可行性和环境效益。沥青混凝土路基法已在中国、澳大利亚和欧洲等地区实施,也可应用于其他地区。本研究分析了水泥混凝土和沥青混凝土轨道床在建设、使用和处置阶段的碳排放量和经济可行性。以往的碳排放分析研究面临着将地理和气候以及能源资源应用于韩国建筑业个案的挑战。这项研究利用韩国生命周期清单数据库,表明沥青混凝土的碳排放量比水泥混凝土低约 2.65 倍。在韩国,铁路建设每公里涉及 1,998 吨沥青混凝土混合物、1,820 立方米水泥混凝土和 59 吨钢筋。此外,沥青混凝土路基法按 2021 年 EAU 值换算,可节约成本约 29,000 欧元。因此,沥青混凝土轨道床不仅具有环境效益,在经济上也是可行的。不过,还需要进一步研究,以确定现场施工的精确标准。这项研究有望为促进沥青混凝土生产地区广泛采用沥青混凝土轨道床提供基础数据。
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引用次数: 0
Experiment study on temporal stability of soil moisture content in ecological slopes under different vegetation covers 不同植被覆盖下生态坡地土壤含水量时间稳定性试验研究
IF 2.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6ee4
Xiaoxue Luo, Xinlong Zhou, Henglin Xiao, Qiang Ma, Yutian Yang, Kaimeng Hu
Temporal stability of soil moisture distribution is crucial to revealing the hydrological process of slope, but rarely accounted for during ecological restoration for engineering slopes. In this study, the effects of ecological restoration with different vegetations on soil moisture distribution were assessed by introducing temporal stability analysis. First, the ecological model slopes with grass and shrub covers were constructed to explore soil moisture distribution at the depth of 0 ∼ 100 cm. Then the spatial variability and correlation of soil moisture in ecological slope were analyzed. The similarity of the spatial distribution patterns among different periods were explored by temporal stability indices. Finally, the representative locations of soil moisture for each ecological slope were obtained and discussed. The results showed that soil moisture distribution was largely influenced by vegetation and rainfall. The similarity of spatial distribution patterns in ecological slopes with different vegetations differed from each other. Due to the difference in hydrological effects. The spatial distribution of soil moisture in slope was less similar in time under Cynodon dactylon cover, while it was better under Multiflora magnolia. Based on relative difference and time stability index, most of best representative locations were distributed at the top of the slope, followed by the middle of the slope. The study provides a theoretical basis for the rational monitoring point design of soil moisture content and a guide for the ecological restoration of engineering slopes.
土壤水分分布的时间稳定性对揭示边坡的水文过程至关重要,但在工程边坡的生态修复过程中却很少考虑到这一点。本研究通过引入时间稳定性分析,评估了不同植被的生态修复对土壤水分分布的影响。首先,构建了草地和灌木覆盖的生态模型边坡,以探讨 0 ∼ 100 cm 深度的土壤水分分布。然后分析了生态坡土壤水分的空间变异性和相关性。通过时间稳定性指数探讨了不同时期空间分布模式的相似性。最后,获得并讨论了各生态坡土壤水分的代表性位置。结果表明,土壤水分分布主要受植被和降雨的影响。不同植被的生态坡地的空间分布模式相似性不同。由于水文效应的不同。在仙人掌覆盖下,坡面土壤水分的空间分布在时间上的相似性较低,而在木兰覆盖下则较好。从相对差异和时间稳定指数来看,最佳代表点大多分布在坡顶,其次是坡中。该研究为合理设计土壤含水量监测点提供了理论依据,也为工程边坡的生态修复提供了指导。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating rainbowing for ocean alkalinity enhancement 评估雨流对提高海洋碱度的作用
IF 2.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad707b
Riccardo Bianchi, Samuele Abbate, Andrew Lockley, Antonella Abbà, Francesco Campo, Selene Varliero, Mario Grosso, Stefano Caserini
Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) is a technique proposed to address ocean acidification and global warming. This study examines rainbowing (i.e. water jets pumped into the air from ships) for the slaked lime slurry distribution. The fluid dynamic behaviour—both the in-air trajectory and subsurface—was studied using the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics method. Various outflow velocities were simulated for calm seas; different dilution factors and environmental slaked lime concentration spikes have been found. Linking slurry concentration to pH, discharge conditions that avoid damage to marine biota have been identified. A preliminary cost analysis compares rainbowing to ship-wake discharge. Rainbowing requires high power consumption to project large volumes of water far from ships. Very high dilution is needed, mainly because of the artificial requirement not to momentarily exceed 24-hour environmental pH limits; the effect of ocean turbulence on instantaneous pH peaks is negligible and is not considered in the analysis. Emissions due to energy consumption almost equalize carbon dioxide removed during discharge, making the method inefficient (only 176 kg of CO2 removed per ton of slaked lime spread). Previous ship-wake discharge analysis shows greater OAE performance and lower cost (5.5 € versus 388 € per ton of CO2 removed). In conclusion—based on the conservative environmental limits imposed, and the specific modeling undertaken—rainbowing is not demonstrated as an efficient method for OAE.
海洋碱度增强(OAE)是为解决海洋酸化和全球变暖问题而提出的一项技术。本研究考察了用于消石灰浆分布的雨流(即从船上向空中喷射水流)。使用平滑粒子流体力学方法研究了流体动力学行为--包括空气中的轨迹和次表面。模拟了平静海面上的各种流出速度;发现了不同的稀释因子和环境消石灰浓度峰值。将泥浆浓度与 pH 值联系起来,确定了避免对海洋生物造成损害的排放条件。初步成本分析比较了雨水冲刷和船舷排放。雨水排放需要消耗大量电力,才能将大量水射向远离船只的地方。需要非常高的稀释度,这主要是因为人为要求不能瞬间超过 24 小时环境 pH 值限制;海洋湍流对瞬时 pH 值峰值的影响可以忽略不计,在分析中也没有考虑。能源消耗造成的排放几乎与排放过程中清除的二氧化碳相等,这使得该方法效率低下(每吨熟石灰仅清除 176 千克二氧化碳)。之前的船翼排放分析表明,OAE 性能更高,成本更低(每吨二氧化碳去除成本为 5.5 欧元对 388 欧元)。总之,基于所施加的保守环境限制和所进行的具体建模,雨水冲刷并不能证明是一种高效的 OAE 方法。
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引用次数: 0
Travel footprints in the nordics 北欧的旅行足迹
IF 2.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad718d
Johanna Raudsepp, Michał Czepkiewicz, Jukka Heinonen, Áróra Árnadóttir
This study provides analyses of carbon footprint survey data from about 7500 respondents in the Nordics to present an overview of Nordic personal travel footprints. The study considers the spatial distribution of travel footprints, the influence of climate concern, and how the footprints fit within the 1.5-degree compatible threshold for 2030. Spatial variability from urban to rural areas differed from country to country. Low climate concern was linked to higher local and long-distance travel emissions. Travel footprints in all countries exceed the recommended threshold level, indicating a need for rapid action to reduce travel emissions in upcoming years. Moreover, there are indications that people who currently meet the threshold could belong to lower socio-economic groups, raising concern about meeting the travel needs of everyone. The study further highlights the context-dependence of the transport sector, even among countries with a similar background, which should be considered in mitigation policy.
本研究分析了北欧约 7,500 名受访者的碳足迹调查数据,概述了北欧的个人旅行足迹。研究考虑了旅行足迹的空间分布、气候问题的影响,以及旅行足迹如何与 2030 年 1.5 摄氏度的兼容临界值相匹配。从城市到农村地区的空间变化因国家而异。低气候关注度与较高的本地和长途旅行排放有关。所有国家的旅行足迹都超过了建议的阈值水平,这表明需要在未来几年迅速采取行动减少旅行排放。此外,有迹象表明,目前达到阈值的人可能属于较低的社会经济群体,这引起了人们对满足每个人的旅行需求的关注。该研究进一步强调了交通部门的背景依赖性,即使在背景相似的国家之间也是如此,这一点应在减排政策中加以考虑。
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引用次数: 0
Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) high resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) bias in extreme rainfall drives underestimation of amazonian precipitation 耦合模式相互比较项目第 6 阶段(CMIP6) 高分辨率模式相互比较项目(HighResMIP) 极端降雨量的偏差导致低估了亚马孙降水量
IF 2.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6ff9
Robinson Negron-Juarez, Michael Wehner, Maria Assunção F Silva Dias, Paul Ullrich, Jeffrey Q Chambers, William J Riley
Extreme rainfall events drive the amount and spatial distribution of rainfall in the Amazon and are a key driver of forest dynamics across the basin. This study investigates how the 3-hourly predictions in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP, a component of the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6) represent extreme rainfall events at annual, seasonal, and sub-daily time scales. TRMM 3B42 (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 3 h data were used as observations. Our results showed that eleven out of seventeen HighResMIP models showed the observed association between rainfall and number of extreme events at the annual and seasonal scales. Two models captured the spatial pattern of number of extreme events at the seasonal and annual scales better (higher correlation) than the other models. None of the models captured the sub-daily timing of extreme rainfall, though some reproduced daily totals. Our results suggest that higher model resolution is a crucial factor for capturing extreme rainfall events in the Amazon, but it might not be the sole factor. Improving the representation of Amazon extreme rainfall events in HighResMIP models can help reduce model rainfall biases and uncertainties and enable more reliable assessments of the water cycle and forest dynamics in the Amazon.
极端降雨事件驱动着亚马逊流域的降雨量和空间分布,是整个流域森林动态的关键驱动因素。本研究调查了高分辨率模式相互比较项目(HighResMIP,最近的耦合模式相互比较项目 CMIP6 的一个组成部分)中的 3 小时预测如何代表年、季节和亚日时间尺度的极端降雨事件。TRMM 3B42(热带降雨测量任务)的 3 小时数据被用作观测数据。结果表明,在 17 个 HighResMIP 模型中,有 11 个模型显示了观测到的降雨量与年度和季节尺度极端事件数量之间的联系。有两个模式比其他模式更好地捕捉到了季节和年度尺度上极端事件数量的空间模式(相关性更高)。尽管一些模式再现了日降雨总量,但没有一个模式捕捉到极端降雨的次日时间。我们的研究结果表明,较高的模式分辨率是捕捉亚马逊极端降雨事件的一个关键因素,但它可能不是唯一的因素。改进 HighResMIP 模型对亚马逊极端降雨事件的表现有助于减少模型的降雨偏差和不确定性,并能对亚马逊的水循环和森林动态进行更可靠的评估。
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引用次数: 0
Historical and relative dominance of the convention on biological diversity agenda: a case analysis of decisions and recommendations 生物多样性公约议程的历史和相对主导地位:对决定和建议的个案分析
IF 2.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6d3b
HyeMin Park
In contrast to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) gives developing countries greater bargaining power owing to their abundant natural resources. CBD negotiations tend to be increasingly dominated by agendas related to the CBD’s third objective: benefit sharing. The first and core objective of CBD is biodiversity conservation, but it is often neglected in favor of benefit sharing. To verify this tendency, this study used topic modeling to analyze the recommendations of the subsidiary bodies and decisions made by the Conference of the Parties (COP) over the past 30 years. The study identified the ten most frequently discussed agenda, then determined the relative dominant agenda between the COP and subsidiary bodies. By categorizing the negotiation agendas into strategic decision agendas and operational conservation agendas based on the level of the meeting which the agenda dominated, this study offers a new framework that can be used to understand how strategic and operational factors interact in CBD negotiations. The findings show that biodiversity conservation, the first objective of CBD, is no longer dominant, at least during negotiations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive investigation of all documents generated during CBD negotiations since its inception.
与《联合国防治荒漠化公约》(UNCCD)和《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC)相比,《生物多样性公约》(CBD)赋予发展中国家更大的讨价还价能力,因为它们拥有丰富的自然资源。与《生物多样性公约》第三项目标--惠益分享--相关的议程日益成为《生物多样性公约》谈判的主要内容。生物多样性公约》的首要核心目标是保护生物多样性,但这一目标往往因利益分享而被忽视。为了验证这一趋势,本研究使用主题模型分析了附属机构的建议和缔约方大会(COP)在过去 30 年中做出的决定。研究确定了十个最常讨论的议程,然后确定了缔约方大会和附属机构之间的相对主导议程。本研究根据议程占主导地位的会议级别,将谈判议程分为战略决策议程和业务保护议程,从而提供了一个新的框架,可用于了解生物多样性公约谈判中的战略和业务因素是如何相互作用的。研究结果表明,生物多样性保护作为《生物多样性公约》的首要目标,至少在谈判过程中不再占据主导地位。据我们所知,这是首次对《生物多样性公约》谈判期间产生的所有文件进行的全面调查。
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Environmental Research Communications
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