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Correction to Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6: e243-56. 柳叶刀星球健康》2022;6:e243-56 更正。
IF 24.1 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00233-X
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引用次数: 0
Planetary Health and Disaster Risk Reduction: the Sendai Framework at its Midpoint 行星健康与减少灾害风险:仙台框架的中点。
IF 24.1 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00200-6
Liz Willetts
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引用次数: 0
Planetary Health Research Digest 行星健康研究摘要
IF 24.1 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00211-0
Cahal McQuillan
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引用次数: 0
Risks of infectious disease hospitalisations in the aftermath of tropical cyclones: a multi-country time-series study 热带气旋过后传染病住院风险:多国时间序列研究
IF 24.1 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00158-X
Wenzhong Huang MPH , Thomas Vogt PhD , Jinah Park MPH , Zhengyu Yang MPH , Prof Elizabeth A Ritchie PhD , Rongbin Xu PhD , Yiwen Zhang MPH , Prof Simon Hales PhD , Wenhua Yu MPH , Samuel Hundessa PhD , Christian Otto PhD , Pei Yu PhD , Yanming Liu PhD , Ke Ju MSc , Prof Eric Lavigne PhD , Tingting Ye MSc , Bo Wen MSc , Yao Wu MSc , Wissanupong Kliengchuay PhD , Prof Kraichat Tantrakarnapa PhD , Prof Yuming Guo PhD
<div><h3>Background</h3><p>The proportion of intense tropical cyclones is expected to increase in a changing climate. However, there is currently no consistent and comprehensive assessment of infectious disease risk following tropical cyclone exposure across countries and over decades. We aimed to explore the tropical cyclone-associated hospitalisation risks and burden for cause-specific infectious diseases on a multi-country scale.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Hospitalisation records for infectious diseases were collected from six countries and territories (Canada, South Korea, New Zealand, Taiwan, Thailand, and Viet Nam) during various periods between 2000 and 2019. The days with tropical cyclone-associated maximum sustained windspeeds of 34 knots or higher derived from a parametric wind field model were considered as tropical cyclone exposure days. The association of monthly infectious diseases hospitalisations and tropical cyclone exposure days was first examined at location level using a distributed lag non-linear quasi-Poisson regression model, and then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. The tropical cyclone-attributable number and fraction of infectious disease hospitalisations were also calculated.</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>Overall, 2·2 million people who were hospitalised for infectious diseases in 179 locations that had at least one tropical cyclone exposure day in the six countries and territories were included in the analysis. The elevated hospitalisation risks for infectious diseases associated with tropical cyclones tended to dissipate 2 months after the tropical cyclone exposure. Overall, each additional tropical cyclone day was associated with a 9% (cumulative relative risk 1·09 [95% CI 1·05–1·14]) increase in hospitalisations for all-cause infectious diseases, 13% (1·13 [1·05–1·21]) for intestinal infectious diseases, 14% (1·14 [1·05–1·23]) for sepsis, and 22% (1·22 [1·03–1·46]) for dengue during the 2 months after a tropical cyclone. Associations of tropical cyclones with hospitalisations for tuberculosis and malaria were not significant. In total, 0·72% (95% CI 0·40–1·01) of the hospitalisations for all-cause infectious diseases, 0·33% (0·15–0·49) for intestinal infectious diseases, 1·31% (0·57–1·95) for sepsis, and 0·63% (0·10–1·04) for dengue were attributable to tropical cyclone exposures. The attributable burdens were higher among young populations (aged ≤19 years) and male individuals compared with their counterparts, especially for intestinal infectious diseases. The heterogeneous spatiotemporal pattern was further revealed at the country and territory level—tropical cyclone-attributable fractions showed a decreasing trend in South Korea during the study period but an increasing trend in Viet Nam, Taiwan, and New Zealand.</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>Tropical cyclones were associated with persistent elevated hospitalisation risks of infectious diseases (particularly sepsis and intestinal i
背景在不断变化的气候中,强热带气旋的比例预计会增加。然而,目前还没有对不同国家和数十年来热带气旋造成的传染病风险进行一致而全面的评估。方法收集了六个国家和地区(加拿大、韩国、新西兰、台湾、泰国和越南)在 2000 年至 2019 年不同时期的传染病住院记录。根据参数风场模型得出的热带气旋相关最大持续风速达到或超过 34 节的日子被视为热带气旋暴露日。首先使用分布式滞后非线性准泊松回归模型在地点水平上检验每月传染病住院人数与热带气旋暴露日的关联,然后使用随机效应荟萃分析进行汇总。总的来说,在六个国家和地区中至少有一个热带气旋暴露日的 179 个地点中,有 200 万至 200 万人因传染病住院。与热带气旋相关的传染病住院风险升高往往会在热带气旋暴露 2 个月后消失。总体而言,在热带气旋发生后的 2 个月内,每增加一个热带气旋日,全因传染病的住院率就会增加 9%(累积相对风险 1-09 [95% CI 1-05-1-14]),肠道传染病的住院率增加 13% (1-13 [1-05-1-21]),败血症的住院率增加 14% (1-14 [1-05-1-23]),登革热的住院率增加 22% (1-22 [1-03-1-46])。热带气旋与肺结核和疟疾住院率的关系并不显著。总的来说,0-72%(95% CI 0-40-1-01)的全因传染病住院病例、0-33%(0-15-0-49)的肠道传染病住院病例、1-31%(0-57-1-95)的败血症住院病例和 0-63%(0-10-1-04)的登革热住院病例可归因于热带气旋。与同龄人相比,年轻人(年龄小于 19 岁)和男性的可归因负担更高,尤其是肠道传染病。在国家和地区层面,异质性时空模式进一步显现--在研究期间,韩国的热带气旋可归因比例呈下降趋势,而越南、台湾和新西兰则呈上升趋势。应根据热带气旋流行病学证据,针对不同人群、地区和传染病病因制定有针对性的干预措施,以应对不断增加的风险和负担。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond GDP: a review and conceptual framework for measuring sustainable and inclusive wellbeing 超越国内生产总值:衡量可持续和包容性福祉的审查和概念框架
IF 24.1 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00147-5
Annegeke Jansen MSc , Ranran Wang PhD , Paul Behrens PhD , Rutger Hoekstra PhD

Policy making has long focused on economic growth as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), diverting attention from sustainable wellbeing for all. Despite high-quality proposals to go beyond GDP, their integration into policy and societal discourse remains limited. A new UN initiative, Valuing What Counts, provides an opportunity for establishing and institutionalising global measurement of metrics beyond GDP, a crucial step to enable a transition into a safe and just space for humanity. Here, we inform this process by consolidating 50 years of literature on Beyond GDP metrics, addressing three core challenges. First, we resolve the lack of interdisciplinary collaboration by integrating five scientific schools of thought in one measurement approach. Second, we alleviate confusion arising from numerous Beyond GDP alternatives, offering a structured analysis of 65 metrics, delineating their measurement objectives. Finally, we bridge the divide between scientific proposals and country-specific approaches. We unite country-specific needs with a standardised and interdisciplinary measurement approach, presenting a dashboard for sustainable and inclusive wellbeing.

长期以来,政策制定一直侧重于以国内生产总值(GDP)衡量的经济增长,从而转移了对全民可持续福祉的关注。尽管提出了超越 GDP 的高质量建议,但将其纳入政策和社会讨论的程度仍然有限。联合国的一项新倡议--"重视有价值的东西"--为建立超越 GDP 的全球衡量标准并使之制度化提供了一个机会,这是使人类过渡到安全和公正空间的关键一步。在此,我们通过整合 50 年来有关超越 GDP 的衡量标准的文献,为这一进程提供信息,并解决三个核心挑战。首先,我们通过将五大科学流派整合为一种衡量方法,解决了缺乏跨学科合作的问题。其次,我们对 65 个衡量标准进行了结构化分析,明确了它们的衡量目标,从而缓解了因众多超越 GDP 的替代方法而产生的混淆。最后,我们弥合了科学建议与国别方法之间的鸿沟。我们将各国的具体需求与标准化的跨学科衡量方法结合起来,为可持续和包容性福祉提供了一个仪表板。
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引用次数: 0
Planetary health learning objectives: foundational knowledge for global health education in an era of climate change 行星健康学习目标:气候变化时代全球健康教育的基础知识
IF 24.1 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00167-0
Prof Kathryn H Jacobsen PhD , Prof Caryl E Waggett PhD , Pamela Berenbaum MSc , Brett R Bayles PhD , Gail L Carlson PhD , René English MBchB PhD , Carlos A Faerron Guzmán MD , Meredith L Gartin PhD , Prof Liz Grant PhD , Thomas L Henshaw PhD , Prof Lora L Iannotti PhD , Prof Philip J Landrigan MD , Nina Lansbury PhD , Prof Hao Li PhD , Prof Maureen Y Lichtveld MD , Ketrell L McWhorter PhD , Prof Jessica E Rettig PhD , Cecilia J Sorensen MD , Prof Eric J Wetzel PhD , Dawn Michele Whitehead PhD , Keith Martin MD

Planetary health is an emerging field that emphasises that humans depend on a healthy Earth for survival and, conversely, that the sustainability of Earth systems is dependent on human behaviours. In response to member demands for resources to support teaching and learning related to planetary health, the Consortium of Universities for Global Health (CUGH) convened a working group to develop a set of planetary health learning objectives (PHLOs) that would complement the existing ten CUGH global health learning objectives. The eight PHLOs feature Earth system changes, planetary boundaries, and climate change science; ecological systems and One Health; human health outcomes; risk assessment, vulnerability, and resilience; policy, governance, and laws (including the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement); roles and responsibilities of governments, businesses, civil society organisations, other institutions, communities, and individuals for mitigation, adaptation, conservation, restoration, and sustainability; environmental ethics, human rights, and climate justice; and environmental literacy and communication. Educators who use the PHLOs as a foundation for teaching, curriculum design, and programme development related to the health–environment nexus will equip learners with a knowledge of planetary health science, interventions, and communication that is essential for future global health professionals.

行星健康是一个新兴领域,它强调人类的生存依赖于健康的地球,反之,地球系统的可持续性也依赖于人类的行为。为了满足成员对资源的需求,以支持与行星健康有关的教学,全球健康大学联盟(CUGH)召集了一个工作组,以制定一套行星健康学习目标(PHLOs),作为现有的十个全球健康大学联盟全球健康学习目标的补充。这八个 PHLOs 包括地球系统变化、地球边界和气候变化科学;生态系统和 "一体健康";人类健康成果;风险评估、脆弱性和复原力;政策、治理和法律(包括《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《巴黎协定》);政府、企业、民间社会组织、其他机构、社区和个人在减缓、适应、保护、恢复和可持续性方面的作用和责任;环境伦理、人权和气候正义;以及环境扫盲和交流。教育者如果将 PHLOs 作为与健康与环境关系相关的教学、课程设计和计划开发的基础,就能让学习者掌握行星健康科学、干预和交流方面的知识,这些知识对于未来的全球健康专业人员来说至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of ambient heat exposure on risk of all-cause mortality in children younger than 5 years in Africa: a pooled time-series analysis 环境热暴露对非洲 5 岁以下儿童全因死亡风险的影响:汇总时间序列分析。
IF 24.1 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00160-8
Chloe Brimicombe PhD , Katharina Wieser BSc , Tobias Monthaler BSc , Prof Debra Jackson PhD , Jeroen De Bont PhD , Prof Matthew F Chersich PhD , Prof Ilona M Otto PhD

Background

Reducing child mortality is a Sustainable Development Goal, and climate change constitutes numerous challenges for Africa. Previous research has shown an association between leading causes of child mortality and climate change. However, few studies have examined these effects in detail. We aimed to explore the effects of ambient heat on neonate, post-neonate, and child mortality rates.

Methods

For this pooled time-series analysis, health data were obtained from the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health (INDEPTH) Health and Demographic Surveillance System. We included data from 29 settlements from 13 countries across Africa, collected via monthly surveys from Jan 1, 1993, to Dec 31, 2016. Climate data were obtained from ERA5, collected from Jan 1, 1991, to Dec 31, 2019. We pooled these data for monthly mean daily maximum wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and downscaled to geolocations. Due to data heaping, we pooled our health data on a monthly temporal scale and a spatial scale into six different climate regions (ie, Sahel [ie, Burkina Faso and northern Ghana], Guinea [ie, southern Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, and Nigeria], Senegal and The Gambia, eastern Africa [ie, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Uganda], South Africa, and Ethiopia). Our outcomes were neonate (ie, younger than 28 days), post-neonate (ie, aged 28 days to 1 year), and child (ie, older than 1 year and younger than 5 years) mortality. To assess the association between WBGT and monthly all-cause mortality, we used a time-series regression with a quasi-Poisson, polynomial-distributed lag model.

Findings

Between Jan 1, 1993, and Dec 31, 2016, there were 44 909 deaths in children younger than 5 years across the 29 sites in the 13 African countries: 10 078 neonates, 14 141 post-neonates, and 20 690 children. We observed differences in the association of heat with neonate, post-neonate, and child mortality by study region. For example, for Ethiopia, the relative risk ratio of mortality at the 95th percentile compared with median heat exposure during the study period was 1·14 (95% CI 1·06–1·23) for neonates, 0·99 (0·90–1·07) for post-neonates, and 0·79 (0·73–0·87) for children. Across the whole year, there was a significant increase in the relative risk of increased mortality for children in eastern Africa (relative risk 1·27, 95% CI 1·19–1·36) and Senegal and The Gambia (1·11, 1·04–1·18).

Interpretation

Our results show that the influence of extreme heat on mortality risk in children younger than 5 years varies by age group, region, and season. Future research should explore potentially informative ways to measure subtleties of heat stress and the factors contributing to vulnerability.

Funding

EU Horizons as part of the Heat Indicators for Global Health (HIGH) Horizons project.

背景:降低儿童死亡率是一项可持续发展目标,而气候变化给非洲带来了诸多挑战。以往的研究表明,儿童死亡的主要原因与气候变化有关。然而,很少有研究对这些影响进行详细研究。我们旨在探讨环境温度对新生儿、新生儿后期和儿童死亡率的影响:在这项汇总时间序列分析中,健康数据来自国际人口及其健康状况评估网络(INDEPTH)的健康与人口监测系统。我们纳入了来自非洲 13 个国家 29 个定居点的数据,这些数据是通过 1993 年 1 月 1 日至 2016 年 12 月 31 日的月度调查收集的。气候数据来自ERA5,收集时间为1991年1月1日至2019年12月31日。我们汇集了这些数据的月平均日最大湿球温度(WBGT),并对地理位置进行了降尺度处理。由于数据堆积,我们按月时间尺度和空间尺度将健康数据汇集到六个不同的气候区域(即萨赫勒[即布基纳法索和加纳北部]、几内亚[即加纳南部、科特迪瓦和尼日利亚]、塞内加尔和冈比亚、非洲东部[即肯尼亚、马拉维、坦桑尼亚、莫桑比克和乌干达]、南非和埃塞俄比亚)。我们的研究结果是新生儿(即小于 28 天)、新生儿后(即 28 天至 1 岁)和儿童(即 1 岁以上 5 岁以下)死亡率。为了评估 WBGT 与每月全因死亡率之间的关系,我们采用了准泊松、多项式分布滞后模型进行时间序列回归:1993年1月1日至2016年12月31日期间,13个非洲国家的29个地点共有44 909名5岁以下儿童死亡:其中新生儿 10 078 例,新生儿后 14 141 例,儿童 20 690 例。我们观察到,不同研究地区的高温与新生儿、新生儿后期和儿童死亡率的关系存在差异。例如,在埃塞俄比亚,与研究期间的热暴露中位数相比,第 95 百分位数的新生儿死亡率的相对风险比为 1-14 (95% CI 1-06-1-23),新生儿后死亡率的相对风险比为 0-99 (0-90-1-07),儿童死亡率的相对风险比为 0-79 (0-73-0-87)。从全年来看,东非(相对风险 1-27,95% CI 1-19-1-36)、塞内加尔和冈比亚(1-11,1-04-1-18)的儿童死亡率相对风险显著增加:我们的研究结果表明,极端高温对 5 岁以下儿童死亡风险的影响因年龄组、地区和季节而异。未来的研究应探索潜在的信息方法,以测量热应激的微妙性和导致脆弱性的因素:作为全球健康热指标(HIGH)地平线项目一部分的欧盟地平线项目。
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引用次数: 0
Policy approaches to decarbonising the transport sector in Aotearoa New Zealand: modelling equity, population health, and health-system effects 新西兰奥特亚罗瓦交通部门去碳化的政策方法:公平、人口健康和健康系统效应建模
IF 24.1 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00171-2
Caroline Shaw PhD , Anja Mizdrak DPhil , Ryan Gage MPH , Melissa McLeod PhD , Rhys Jones MPH , Prof Alistair Woodward PhD , Linda Cobiac PhD
<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Health co-benefits are a key potential advantage of transport decarbonisation policy. However, health effects will occur in the context of existing transport–health inequities and decarbonisation policies will themselves affect inequities. This research examines the effects of national decarbonisation pathways for transport on population health, health inequity, and health-system costs in Aotearoa New Zealand.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We modelled the health, health-system, and environmental impacts of two pathways to net zero for transport developed by the New Zealand Climate Change Commission using a proportional multistate lifetable model. The behaviour pathway emphasises a mixed approach, including reduced driving, increased cycling and use of public transport, and light vehicle electrification, and the technology pathway focuses on vehicle electrification. We used data from transport, environmental, population health, and health-care sources to populate the model. We simulated changes in health effects through the pathways of physical activity, air pollution (PM<sub>2·5</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub>), and injury for the Aotearoa New Zealand population from 2018 to 2050. We modelled impacts for Māori (the Indigenous People of Aotearoa) and non-Māori. For each pathway to net zero, we calculated changes in overall health-adjusted life-years (HALYs), age-standardised HALYs, and rate ratios for Māori and non-Māori. We also calculated changes in health-system costs and transport greenhouse gas emissions. 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) were derived for all model outputs by use of a Monte Carlo simulation.</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>Both pathways show improvements in population health, reductions in health-system costs, and reduced lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions compared with baseline, although health gains were substantially larger in the behaviour pathway. For example, an extra 2100 HALYs (95% UI 1500–3100) were gained in the behaviour scenario compared with baseline. Health gains were 20–30% larger for Māori than non-Māori in both pathways, although more HALYs were gained by Māori in the behaviour pathway. For the cohort aged 0–4 years in 2018, healthy life expectancy differences between Māori and non-Māori reduced by 0·5% in the behaviour pathway over their lifetime. HALYs gained by Māori and non-Māori were altered substantially depending on assumptions about the equity of the implemented pathway.</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>Decarbonising transport might improve overall population health, save the health system money, and reduce health inequities between Māori and non-Māori. Pathways that increase physical activity have a larger effect on population health than those that rely on low-emission vehicles. The effects on inequity between Māori and non-Māori are larger in the behaviour pathway than in the technology pathway but dependent on how equitably policies supporting decarbonisation are
背景健康共同效益是交通脱碳政策的一个关键潜在优势。然而,健康效应将在现有交通-健康不平等的背景下产生,而去碳化政策本身也会影响不平等。本研究探讨了国家交通去碳化途径对新西兰奥特亚罗瓦地区人口健康、健康不平等和健康系统成本的影响。方法我们使用比例多州生命表模型,模拟了新西兰气候变化委员会制定的两种交通净零碳化途径对健康、健康系统和环境的影响。行为路径强调混合方法,包括减少驾驶、增加骑自行车和使用公共交通以及轻型车辆电气化,而技术路径则侧重于车辆电气化。我们使用了来自交通、环境、人口健康和医疗保健方面的数据来构建模型。我们通过体育活动、空气污染(PM2-5 和二氧化氮)和伤害等途径,模拟了 2018 年至 2050 年新西兰奥特亚罗瓦人口的健康影响变化。我们模拟了对毛利人(奥特亚罗瓦土著人)和非毛利人的影响。对于实现净零的每种途径,我们计算了毛利人和非毛利人的总体健康调整寿命年数(HALYs)、年龄标准化健康调整寿命年数(HALYs)和比率比的变化。我们还计算了健康系统成本和交通温室气体排放量的变化。与基线相比,两种途径都能改善人口健康、降低健康系统成本和减少生命周期温室气体排放,但行为途径的健康收益要大得多。例如,与基线相比,行为方案额外增加了 2100 HALYs(95% UI 1500-3100)。在两种途径中,毛利人的健康收益都比非毛利人高出 20-30%,但在行为途径中,毛利人获得了更多的 "HALYs"。对于2018年0-4岁的人群,毛利人和非毛利人在行为途径上的健康预期寿命差异在其一生中减少了0-5%。毛利人和非毛利人获得的健康预期寿命年数会有很大变化,这取决于对所实施路径的公平性的假设。与依赖低排放车辆的道路相比,增加体育锻炼的道路对人口健康的影响更大。行为途径对毛利人和非毛利人之间不平等的影响大于技术途径,但取决于支持去碳化的政策如何公平实施。
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引用次数: 0
Why gender matters for addressing chemical pollution 为什么性别问题对解决化学污染至关重要
IF 24.1 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00176-1
Mengjiao Wang , Angeliki Balayannis , Hanna-Andrea Rother , Minu Hemmati , Anna Holthaus , Vania Zuin Zeidler
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引用次数: 0
Expert judgement reveals current and emerging UK climate-mortality burden 专家判断揭示了英国当前和新出现的气候死亡负担
IF 24.1 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00175-X
Prof Dann Mitchell PhD , Y T Eunice Lo PhD , Emily Ball PhD , Joanne L Godwin PhD , Oliver Andrews PhD , Prof Rosa Barciela PhD , Prof Lea Berrang Ford PhD , Claudia Di Napoli PhD , Prof Kristie L Ebi PhD , Neven S Fučkar PhD , Prof Antonio Gasparrini PhD , Prof Brian Golding PhD , Celia L Gregson MRCP PhD , Gareth J Griffith PhD , Sara Khalid PhD , Caitlin Robinson PhD , Prof Daniela N Schmidt PhD , Charles H Simpson PhD , Prof Sir Robert Stephen John Sparks PhD , Josephine G Walker PhD

Weather and climate patterns play an intrinsic role in societal health, yet a comprehensive synthesis of specific hazard–mortality causes does not currently exist. Country-level health burdens are thus highly uncertain, but harnessing collective expert knowledge can reduce this uncertainty, and help assess diverse mortality causes beyond what is explicitly quantified. Here, surveying 30 experts, we provide the first structured expert judgement of how weather and climate directly impact mortality, using the UK as an example. Current weather-related mortality is dominated by short-term exposure to hot and cold temperatures leading to cardiovascular and respiratory failure. We find additional underappreciated health outcomes, especially related to long-exposure hazards, including heat-related renal disease, cold-related musculoskeletal health, and infectious diseases from compound hazards. We show potential future worsening of cause-specific mortality, including mental health from flooding or heat, and changes in infectious diseases. Ultimately, this work could serve to develop an expert-based understanding of the climate-related health burden in other countries.

天气和气候模式对社会健康起着固有的作用,但目前还没有对具体的灾害-死亡原因进行全面综合。因此,国家层面的健康负担具有高度不确定性,但利用专家的集体知识可以减少这种不确定性,并有助于评估明确量化之外的各种死亡原因。在此,我们以英国为例,对 30 位专家进行了调查,首次提供了关于天气和气候如何直接影响死亡率的结构化专家判断。目前与天气相关的死亡率主要是短期暴露于高温和低温导致的心血管和呼吸系统衰竭。我们还发现了更多未被重视的健康后果,尤其是与长期暴露的危害有关的健康后果,包括与热有关的肾病、与冷有关的肌肉骨骼健康以及复合危害引起的传染病。我们显示了未来特定病因死亡率的潜在恶化,包括洪水或高温导致的心理健康以及传染病的变化。最终,这项工作将有助于专家了解其他国家与气候相关的健康负担。
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Lancet Planetary Health
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