Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101359
Anouk Reuzé , Tony W Carr , Sara Nájera Espinosa , Beatrice Biondi , Elena Benedetti , Mario Mazzocchi , Rosemary Green , Pauline Scheelbeek
Background
Dietary shifts are recognised as major pathways to curb greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). Although studies have assessed the environmental footprint of diets, few have explored the various strategies consumers use to reduce their carbon footprint through dietary changes. This study aims to examine the dietary shifts of consumers in Italy who have successfully reduced their carbon footprint over time.
Methods
Food purchase data from approximately 6000 Italian households were collected between 2019 and 2024. Food-related GHGE were assessed using life-cycle assessment. Households that successfully reduced their food-related GHGE during this period were identified as champions. The total volume of food purchases, associated energy intake, GHGE, and expenses were evaluated at both timepoints. Patterns of dietary changes among the champions were identified through hierarchical cluster analysis based on food purchase changes. In addition, sociodemographic characteristics were described.
Findings
Two distinct patterns of dietary shifts were identified among the 162 champions, reflecting different strategies for reducing dietary carbon footprints. The GHGE reduction was primarily achieved through decreased consumption of animal-based foods, particularly raw ruminant meat. Clusters were associated with specific sociodemographic factors, notably the household composition. Although food expenditures of champions increased slightly, they remained lower than those of non-champions.
Interpretation
Despite Italy’s strong culinary traditions, more environmentally sustainable dietary patterns have emerged over the past decade. Reductions in consumption of animal-based foods are essential for lowering diet-related carbon footprints. To encourage broader adoption of this shift in dietary pattern, targeted strategies tailored to specific sociodemographic groups, such as family households, are necessary.
{"title":"Tracking dietary shifts towards lower carbon footprint in Italian households: a longitudinal analysis","authors":"Anouk Reuzé , Tony W Carr , Sara Nájera Espinosa , Beatrice Biondi , Elena Benedetti , Mario Mazzocchi , Rosemary Green , Pauline Scheelbeek","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101359","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101359","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Dietary shifts are recognised as major pathways to curb greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). Although studies have assessed the environmental footprint of diets, few have explored the various strategies consumers use to reduce their carbon footprint through dietary changes. This study aims to examine the dietary shifts of consumers in Italy who have successfully reduced their carbon footprint over time.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Food purchase data from approximately 6000 Italian households were collected between 2019 and 2024. Food-related GHGE were assessed using life-cycle assessment. Households that successfully reduced their food-related GHGE during this period were identified as champions. The total volume of food purchases, associated energy intake, GHGE, and expenses were evaluated at both timepoints. Patterns of dietary changes among the champions were identified through hierarchical cluster analysis based on food purchase changes. In addition, sociodemographic characteristics were described.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Two distinct patterns of dietary shifts were identified among the 162 champions, reflecting different strategies for reducing dietary carbon footprints. The GHGE reduction was primarily achieved through decreased consumption of animal-based foods, particularly raw ruminant meat. Clusters were associated with specific sociodemographic factors, notably the household composition. Although food expenditures of champions increased slightly, they remained lower than those of non-champions.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Despite Italy’s strong culinary traditions, more environmentally sustainable dietary patterns have emerged over the past decade. Reductions in consumption of animal-based foods are essential for lowering diet-related carbon footprints. To encourage broader adoption of this shift in dietary pattern, targeted strategies tailored to specific sociodemographic groups, such as family households, are necessary.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>None.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 ","pages":"Article 101359"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101360
Min-Hee Heo , Soon-Hyo Kwon , Huiwon Jeon , Sujin Ma , Jung-Won Lee , Jin-Won Noh
Background
There is a trend of older adults undergoing haemodialysis. This trend is likely to increase health-care expenditure and extend into broader social burdens. This study aimed to identify factors associated with mortality risk in older patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD).
Methods
This study analysed data from the Korean National Health Information Database for individuals with ESRD who were older than 55 years in 2022. Mortality risk was estimated using Kaplan–Meier survival curves and cox proportional hazard models, stratified into urban and rural residence. Model 1 included socioeconomic and demographic characteristics (n=5463), and Model 2 additionally adjusted for clinical characteristics (n=768).
Findings
In Model 1, 45·34% of patients were censored, with a mean survival of 1126·75 days (±631·89). Among urban patients, women (hazard ration [HR]=0·99, p<0·01) and medical aid beneficiaries (HR=0·84, p=0·04), and more than two sessions of haemodialysis per week (HR=0·85, p<0·001) were associated with lower mortality risk, whereas older age (HR=1·11, p<0·001) and mild disability (HR=1·19, p<0·01) were associated with higher mortality risk. In rural patients, older age (HR=1·16, p<0·001) and severe disability (HR=1·61, p<0·05) were associated with higher mortality risk, whereas employee insurance (HR=0·75, p<0·05) was associated with lower mortality risk. In Model 2, 50·26% of patients were censored, with a mean survival of 1681·44 days (±347·53). In urban patients, older age (HR=1·05, p<0·001), higher triglyceride levels (HR=1·00, p=0·01), and elevated LDL cholesterol (HR=1·02, p=0·04) showed higher mortality risk. In rural patients, older age (HR=1·09, p<0·001) was linked to higher mortality, whereas more than two sessions of haemodialysis per week (HR=0·33, p=0·01) was associated with a lower mortality risk.
Interpretation
Planetary crises worsen health-care accessibility in rural areas. These findings highlight the need to integrate environmental vulnerability and social determinants to address health disparities among patients with ESRD.
Funding
Project was supported by the Patient-Centred Clinical Research Coordinating Centre (PACEN) Funded by the Ministry of Health and Welfare, South Korea.
{"title":"Environmental vulnerability of older patients with end stage renal disease: using a nationwide claim data of South Korea","authors":"Min-Hee Heo , Soon-Hyo Kwon , Huiwon Jeon , Sujin Ma , Jung-Won Lee , Jin-Won Noh","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101360","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101360","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>There is a trend of older adults undergoing haemodialysis. This trend is likely to increase health-care expenditure and extend into broader social burdens. This study aimed to identify factors associated with mortality risk in older patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD).</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This study analysed data from the Korean National Health Information Database for individuals with ESRD who were older than 55 years in 2022. Mortality risk was estimated using Kaplan–Meier survival curves and cox proportional hazard models, stratified into urban and rural residence. Model 1 included socioeconomic and demographic characteristics (n=5463), and Model 2 additionally adjusted for clinical characteristics (n=768).</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>In Model 1, 45·34% of patients were censored, with a mean survival of 1126·75 days (±631·89). Among urban patients, women (hazard ration [HR]=0·99, p<0·01) and medical aid beneficiaries (HR=0·84, p=0·04), and more than two sessions of haemodialysis per week (HR=0·85, p<0·001) were associated with lower mortality risk, whereas older age (HR=1·11, p<0·001) and mild disability (HR=1·19, <em>p</em><0·01) were associated with higher mortality risk. In rural patients, older age (HR=1·16, p<0·001) and severe disability (HR=1·61, p<0·05) were associated with higher mortality risk, whereas employee insurance (HR=0·75, p<0·05) was associated with lower mortality risk. In Model 2, 50·26% of patients were censored, with a mean survival of 1681·44 days (±347·53). In urban patients, older age (HR=1·05, p<0·001), higher triglyceride levels (HR=1·00, p=0·01), and elevated LDL cholesterol (HR=1·02, p=0·04) showed higher mortality risk. In rural patients, older age (HR=1·09, p<0·001) was linked to higher mortality, whereas more than two sessions of haemodialysis per week (HR=0·33, p=0·01) was associated with a lower mortality risk.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Planetary crises worsen health-care accessibility in rural areas. These findings highlight the need to integrate environmental vulnerability and social determinants to address health disparities among patients with ESRD.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>Project was supported by the Patient-Centred Clinical Research Coordinating Centre (PACEN) Funded by the Ministry of Health and Welfare, South Korea.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 ","pages":"Article 101360"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101368
Athena Chlapowski , Ruiyu Pu , Catherine Smith , Amy Y Vittor
Background
Agroforestry and regenerative agriculture are emerging as promising sustainable farming approaches that intertwine economic, social, and environmental benefits. These practices are gaining traction globally due to their potential to enhance soil health, biodiversity, and ecosystem integrity. However, the agroforestry and regenerative agriculture forest–farm edge might give rise to pathogen spillover from wildlife into livestock and humans. This pilot project examines the effects of these practices on farmworkers' health and susceptibility to arthropod-borne zoonotic diseases.
Methods
We interviewed Florida farmers to assess agricultural practices, zoonotic risk factors, and climate perspectives. Serum of the farmers was tested for exposure to West Nile, dengue, chikungunya, Venezuelan equine encephalitis subtype II (Everglades virus, EVEV) viruses, as well as Borrelia burgdorferi. Land cover was analysed keep original usage please using Esri Sentinel-2 Land Cover Explorer.
Findings
We surveyed 31 farmers from 25 farms, of whom 32·3% (95% CI 17·7–51·4) reported fevers in the previous year and 48·4% (30·8–66·4) were concerned about zoonoses. Heat exposure was considered a problem for 71·0% (95% CI 51·8–84·8) of farmers. Farmers noted an average of 1·7 (95% CI 2·9–11·6) ticks in the week before the survey. Farmers were positive for B burgdorferi (10, 95% CI 3·0–28·3%), dengue (6·9, 1·6–25·4), and EVEV (3·3, 0·4–22·2). All farmers tested negative for chikungunya and West Nile viruses. Tree cover was greater at farms with B burgdorferi-positive participants (55·3% [95% CI 26·2–84·4] vs 33·3% [22·1–45·4]).
Interpretation
Agroforestry and regenerative agriculture were not associated with pathogen exposure. Research should focus on expanding the sample size and testing for Ehrlichiosis, Rickettsiosis, and orthobunyaviruses.
Funding
None.
农林业和再生农业正在成为有前途的可持续农业方法，它们将经济、社会和环境效益交织在一起。这些做法由于具有增强土壤健康、生物多样性和生态系统完整性的潜力，正在全球范围内获得关注。然而，农林业和再生农业林场边缘可能导致病原体从野生动物溢出到牲畜和人类。该试点项目审查了这些做法对农场工人健康的影响以及对节肢动物传播的人畜共患病的易感性。方法我们采访了佛罗里达州的农民，以评估农业实践、人畜共患病风险因素和气候前景。对农民的血清进行了接触西尼罗河、登革热、基孔肯雅热、委内瑞拉马脑炎II型（Everglades病毒，evv）病毒以及伯氏疏螺旋体的检测。土地覆盖分析请使用Esri Sentinel-2土地覆盖探测器保持原始使用。结果调查了来自25个农场的31名农民，其中32.3% （95% CI 17.7 ~ 54.1）报告在过去一年中发烧，48.4%（30.8 ~ 66.4）表示担心人畜共患病。71.5% （95% CI 51.8 - 88.4）的农民认为热暴露是一个问题。农民在调查前一周平均发现1.7只蜱虫（95% CI为2.9 - 11.6）。农民呈伯氏疏螺旋体（10,95% CI 3.0 ~ 28.3%）、登革热（6.9,1.6 ~ 25.4）和evv（3.3, 0.4 ~ 22.2）阳性。所有农民的基孔肯雅病毒和西尼罗病毒检测均呈阴性。伯氏疏螺旋体阳性参与者的农场树木覆盖率更高（55.3% [95% CI 26.2 - 84.4] vs 33.3%[22.1 - 45.4]）。农林业和再生农业与病原菌暴露无关。研究应集中于扩大样本数量和检测埃利希体病、立克次体病和正布尼亚病毒。
{"title":"Exploring the significance of agroforestry and regenerative agriculture in farmer’s health and risk of zoonotic diseases","authors":"Athena Chlapowski , Ruiyu Pu , Catherine Smith , Amy Y Vittor","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101368","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101368","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Agroforestry and regenerative agriculture are emerging as promising sustainable farming approaches that intertwine economic, social, and environmental benefits. These practices are gaining traction globally due to their potential to enhance soil health, biodiversity, and ecosystem integrity. However, the agroforestry and regenerative agriculture forest–farm edge might give rise to pathogen spillover from wildlife into livestock and humans. This pilot project examines the effects of these practices on farmworkers' health and susceptibility to arthropod-borne zoonotic diseases.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We interviewed Florida farmers to assess agricultural practices, zoonotic risk factors, and climate perspectives. Serum of the farmers was tested for exposure to West Nile, dengue, chikungunya, Venezuelan equine encephalitis subtype II (Everglades virus, EVEV) viruses, as well as <em>Borrelia burgdorferi</em>. Land cover was analysed keep original usage please using Esri Sentinel-2 Land Cover Explorer.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>We surveyed 31 farmers from 25 farms, of whom 32·3% (95% CI 17·7–51·4) reported fevers in the previous year and 48·4% (30·8–66·4) were concerned about zoonoses. Heat exposure was considered a problem for 71·0% (95% CI 51·8–84·8) of farmers. Farmers noted an average of 1·7 (95% CI 2·9–11·6) ticks in the week before the survey. Farmers were positive for <em>B burgdorferi</em> (10, 95% CI 3·0–28·3%), dengue (6·9, 1·6–25·4), and EVEV (3·3, 0·4–22·2). All farmers tested negative for chikungunya and West Nile viruses. Tree cover was greater at farms with <em>B burgdorferi</em>-positive participants (55·3% [95% CI 26·2–84·4] <em>vs</em> 33·3% [22·1–45·4]).</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Agroforestry and regenerative agriculture were not associated with pathogen exposure. Research should focus on expanding the sample size and testing for Ehrlichiosis, Rickettsiosis, and orthobunyaviruses.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>None.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 ","pages":"Article 101368"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Effective learning environment plays a key role in fostering planetary stewardships, particularly in transdisciplinary fields such as planetary health. This study presents the domains of the planetary health education framework (PHEF) addressed by a Master of Public Health course in Japan, offered between 2018 and 2024.
Methods
Over 50 graduate students with diverse academic and professional backgrounds participated in the course, which consisted of lectures, group discussions and presentations, and field visits to a national research institution. Team projects were designed to develop action-oriented proposals addressing planetary and human health topics chosen through literature review. All topics covered in the course were documented and categorised into the five domains and 45 conceptual components of PHEF.
Findings
Lectures and team projects included air pollution, green space, yellow dust, food insecurity, heatwave, and emerging infectious diseases as topics. The course addressed components within the domains of Interconnections Within Nature, The Anthropocene and Health, and selected components of Systems Thinking and Movement Building, whereas components of the Equity and Social Justice domain were under-represented.
Interpretation
The action-oriented, transdisciplinary graduate course successfully integrated elements of four PHEF domains and highlighted opportunities to strengthen educational content through case studies emphasising Equity and Social Justice.
{"title":"Attainable and marginalised domains of the planetary health education framework in an action-oriented transdisciplinary course of a graduate programme","authors":"Kaoruko Seino , Keiko Nakamura , Sharifullah Alemi","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101367","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101367","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Effective learning environment plays a key role in fostering planetary stewardships, particularly in transdisciplinary fields such as planetary health. This study presents the domains of the planetary health education framework (PHEF) addressed by a Master of Public Health course in Japan, offered between 2018 and 2024.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Over 50 graduate students with diverse academic and professional backgrounds participated in the course, which consisted of lectures, group discussions and presentations, and field visits to a national research institution. Team projects were designed to develop action-oriented proposals addressing planetary and human health topics chosen through literature review. All topics covered in the course were documented and categorised into the five domains and 45 conceptual components of PHEF.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Lectures and team projects included air pollution, green space, yellow dust, food insecurity, heatwave, and emerging infectious diseases as topics. The course addressed components within the domains of Interconnections Within Nature, The Anthropocene and Health, and selected components of Systems Thinking and Movement Building, whereas components of the Equity and Social Justice domain were under-represented.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>The action-oriented, transdisciplinary graduate course successfully integrated elements of four PHEF domains and highlighted opportunities to strengthen educational content through case studies emphasising Equity and Social Justice.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>None.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 ","pages":"Article 101367"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101285
Alessandro Gatto PhD , Maksym Chepeliev PhD
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Food loss and waste undermine the resilience and sustainability of global food systems, jeopardising progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Adopting healthier and more sustainable diets could help reduce global food loss and waste, but the potential trade-offs on food loss and waste trends and interactions with standalone reduction policies remain largely unexplored. We aimed to investigate the effects of reducing food loss and waste within the context of a global dietary transition by 2050, shedding light on the synergies and trade-offs between two crucial policy areas for the food systems of the future.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this economic modelling study, we linked the economic and technical modelling of food loss and waste by adding consistent tracing of food loss and waste in physical quantities along global (ie, domestic and international) food supply chains within a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework. This framework captures the behavioural responses of economic actors along food and non-food supply chains. We built on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base, incorporating data extensions for energy, nutritional accounts, and food loss and waste flows along stages of global supply chains. We first investigated the impact of halving global food loss and waste through technological developments by 2050, in line with the SDG 12.3 target. We then analysed the impact of transitioning to healthier and more sustainable diets by 2050, promoting a global dietary transition through behavioural changes. We explored this dietary transition both with and without the goal of halving global food loss and waste, highlighting how food loss and waste targets interact with dietary changes on a global scale. Our scenarios were chosen to show how the magnitude, composition, location, and reuse potential of food loss and food waste could evolve under different scenarios compared with business-as-usual dietary developments.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Food loss and waste along global supply chains were projected to rise by 52·0% by 2050 under the continuation of historical trends. Diet shifts alone were projected to be insufficient to curb this rise in food loss and waste, with demographic trends and growing incomes driving the total volume of lost and discarded food. Regional spillover effects of healthier diets—whereby low-income countries increase plant-based food production to meet growing demand in high-income countries—exacerbated food loss and waste trends, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and north Africa. In sub-Saharan Africa, rapid population growth and increased per-capita gross domestic product drove food loss and waste when dietary changes were implemented (an increase of 132·2% from 2014 to 2050) and when standalone food loss and waste reduction targets were applied (an increase of 61·8% from 2014 to 2050). Globall
{"title":"Integrating food loss and waste reduction policies with global dietary shifts: an economic modelling study","authors":"Alessandro Gatto PhD , Maksym Chepeliev PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101285","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101285","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Food loss and waste undermine the resilience and sustainability of global food systems, jeopardising progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Adopting healthier and more sustainable diets could help reduce global food loss and waste, but the potential trade-offs on food loss and waste trends and interactions with standalone reduction policies remain largely unexplored. We aimed to investigate the effects of reducing food loss and waste within the context of a global dietary transition by 2050, shedding light on the synergies and trade-offs between two crucial policy areas for the food systems of the future.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this economic modelling study, we linked the economic and technical modelling of food loss and waste by adding consistent tracing of food loss and waste in physical quantities along global (ie, domestic and international) food supply chains within a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework. This framework captures the behavioural responses of economic actors along food and non-food supply chains. We built on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base, incorporating data extensions for energy, nutritional accounts, and food loss and waste flows along stages of global supply chains. We first investigated the impact of halving global food loss and waste through technological developments by 2050, in line with the SDG 12.3 target. We then analysed the impact of transitioning to healthier and more sustainable diets by 2050, promoting a global dietary transition through behavioural changes. We explored this dietary transition both with and without the goal of halving global food loss and waste, highlighting how food loss and waste targets interact with dietary changes on a global scale. Our scenarios were chosen to show how the magnitude, composition, location, and reuse potential of food loss and food waste could evolve under different scenarios compared with business-as-usual dietary developments.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Food loss and waste along global supply chains were projected to rise by 52·0% by 2050 under the continuation of historical trends. Diet shifts alone were projected to be insufficient to curb this rise in food loss and waste, with demographic trends and growing incomes driving the total volume of lost and discarded food. Regional spillover effects of healthier diets—whereby low-income countries increase plant-based food production to meet growing demand in high-income countries—exacerbated food loss and waste trends, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and north Africa. In sub-Saharan Africa, rapid population growth and increased per-capita gross domestic product drove food loss and waste when dietary changes were implemented (an increase of 132·2% from 2014 to 2050) and when standalone food loss and waste reduction targets were applied (an increase of 61·8% from 2014 to 2050). Globall","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 10","pages":"Article 101285"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145428465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101338
Claudia Fernandez de Cordoba Farini , Francesco Branca , Ji-Hyun Yoon , Shenggen Fan , Jessica Fanzo , Susan P Mercado , Sandro Demaio
{"title":"A centre of gravity: Asia–Pacific leadership in global food systems transformation","authors":"Claudia Fernandez de Cordoba Farini , Francesco Branca , Ji-Hyun Yoon , Shenggen Fan , Jessica Fanzo , Susan P Mercado , Sandro Demaio","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101338","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101338","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 10","pages":"Article 101338"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145309444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101327
Marijke Kuiper PhD , Thijs de Lange MSc , Willem-Jan van Zeist PhD , Prof Hans van Meijl PhD
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>The EAT–<em>Lancet</em> (EL) report made a convincing case that a transformative diet shift could yield substantial health benefits while helping to respect key planetary boundaries. Shifting to a more plant-based EL diet requires an unprecedented break from historic trends of rising meat consumption. By exogenously shifting diets, existing studies do not provide guidance on how to shift diets. In this study, we model specific policies that might achieve such a dietary shift and their potential economic, environmental, and distributional impacts.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this economic modelling study, we used MAGNET, a global computable general equilibrium model, to explore how diets might be shifted from the business-as-usual trend of increased meat consumption between 2025 and 2050. We defined a policy bundle of three types of context-specific interventions: (1) nudging and information to shift consumer decisions, (2) adjusting fiscal policies by removing taxes on encouraged foods and subsidies on discouraged ones, and (3) introducing new price signals, such as taxes on high-emission foods and subsidies for encouraged foods. To evaluate how choice of interventions affects economic, environmental, and distributional outcomes, we analysed interactions of combined interventions and compared the policy bundle to an exogenous shift to the EL diet.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The EL diet recommendations cannot be reached by the policy bundle. While reducing overconsumption and underconsumption, the policy bundle left a big gap with EL diet recommendations (3 times the recommended intake for red meat, and only 80% of recommended fruit and vegetable intake, 50% for pulses and nuts). No single intervention from the policy bundle shifted all diet components in the desired direction. Decomposition of the policy bundle showed the importance of regional context. In low-income regions, taxes and subsidies accounted for the largest share in the diet shift. In other regions, nudging and information had a stronger effect than did subsidies. The exogenous EL diet scenario assumed a shift in diets beyond the range observed in empirical studies and produced a counterproductive feedback by reducing the affordability of the EL diet. GHG emissions from the primary sector (agriculture and fisheries) decreased more with the policy bundle (–4 GTon CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent), as GHG taxes provided incentives to reduce fossil-based inputs lacking in the consumer-focused exogenous EL diet scenario (–3 GTon CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent). The shift away from fossil-based inputs also led to an increase in agricultural land area (27 million ha) with the policy bundle, while the exogenous EL diet scenario resulted in a decrease in agricultural land (–35 million ha). Affordability for the average household decreased when exogenously shifting the EL diet (EL diet costs increased 26·1%, household income 0·2%), but it increased wit
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Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101325
Abhijeet Mishra PhD , Timothy B Sulser MSc , Sherwin Gabriel MCom , Nicola Cenacchi MSc , Shahnila Dunston MS , Derek Headey PhD , Prof Mario Herrero PhD , Daniel Mason-D’Croz MA , Keith Wiebe PhD
Background
Affordability limits healthy diet adoption, especially in low-income settings, yet dietary shifts are key for transition to sustainable food systems. This study models how a diet in line with the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission dietary transition might impact calorie availability, share of income spent on food, nutrition availability, and food prices.
Methods
We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to estimate food price changes under three alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and global adoption of a 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet by 2050. We analyse price shifts for the two cheapest commodities per food group, in each region, weighted on calorie availability per dollar. Additionally, we assess gaps between nutrient availability and reference nutrient intake and changes in the share of income spent on food for the whole diet.
Findings
Adoption of the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet leads to heterogeneous impacts on the share of income spent on food and nutrient availability, with gains in folate, iron, and zinc, but declines in vitamin A by 2050. The combined price index for the cheapest two commodities declines by 2050 compared with 2020 in both higher-income and lower-income countries.
Interpretation
Although dietary shifts towards the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet could offset some of the increases in prices seen in a business-as-usual world, we observed unintended effects on nutrient availability ratios, especially in lower-income countries. The decreasing price index for the cheapest two commodities reflects market adjustments to changes in demand and supply under scenario assumptions aligned with 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission goals for jointly improved human and environmental health. The observed nutrient deficiencies suggest the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet limits on animal-sourced foods might be too strict for lower-income countries, which could exacerbate nutrient deficiencies in contexts where access to animal sourced foods is already low (eg, vitamin A), especially if there is no access to supplementation for meeting these nutritional requirements or other sources of dietary nutrients.
Funding
CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations (Area of Work 1—Foresight and Prioritization).
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Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101339
Marina Sundiang PhD , Thais Diniz Oliveira PhD , Daniel Mason-D’Croz MA , Matthew Gibson PhD , Felicitas Beier MA , Lauren Benavidez MSc , Benjamin Leon Bodirsky PhD , Astrid Bos PhD , Maksym Chepeliev PhD , David Meng-Chuen Chen MA , Thijs de Lange MSc , Jonathan Doelman PhD , Shahnila Dunston MSc , Stefan Frank PhD , Prof Shinichiro Fujimori , Prof Tomoko Hasegawa , Petr Havlik PhD , Jordan Hristov PhD , Jonas Jägermeyr PhD , Marta Kozicka PhD , Mario Herrero PhD
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–<em>Lancet</em> healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices).</div></div><div><h3>Interpret
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Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101343
Cahal McQuillan
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