Lancet Planetary Health最新文献

{"title":"High ambient temperature in pregnancy and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: an observational study","authors":"Tormod Rogne PhD ,&nbsp;Rong Wang PhD ,&nbsp;Pin Wang PhD ,&nbsp;Nicole C Deziel PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Catherine Metayer PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Joseph L Wiemels PhD ,&nbsp;Kai Chen PhD ,&nbsp;Joshua L Warren PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Xiaomei Ma PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00121-9","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00121-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>High ambient temperature is increasingly common due to climate change and is associated with risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is the most common malignancy in children, the incidence is increasing, and in the USA disproportionately affects Latino children. We aimed to investigate the potential association between high ambient temperature in pregnancy and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We used data from California birth records (children born from Jan 1, 1982, to Dec 31, 2015) and California Cancer Registry (those diagnosed with childhood cancer in California from Jan 1, 1988, to Dec 31, 2015) to identify acute lymphoblastic leukaemia cases diagnosed in infants and children aged 14 years and younger and controls matched by sex, race, ethnicity, and date of last menstrual period. Ambient temperatures were estimated on a 1-km grid. The association between ambient temperature and acute lymphoblastic leukaemia was evaluated per gestational week, restricted to May–September, adjusting for confounders. Bayesian meta-regression was applied to identify critical exposure windows. For sensitivity analyses, we evaluated a 90-day pre-pregnancy period (assuming no direct effect before pregnancy), adjusted for relative humidity and particulate matter less than 2·5 microns in aerodynamic diameter, and constructed an alternatively matched dataset for exposure contrast by seasonality.</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>6849 cases of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia were identified and, of these, 6258 had sufficient data for study inclusion. We also included 307 579 matched controls. Most of the study population were male (174 693 [55·7%] of the 313 837 included in the study) and of Latino ethnicity (174 906 [55·7%]). The peak association between ambient temperature and risk of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia was observed in gestational week 8, where a 5°C increase was associated with an odds ratio of 1·07 (95% CI 1·04–1·11). A slightly larger effect was seen among Latino children (OR 1·09 [95% CI 1·04–1·14]) than non-Latino White children (OR 1·05 [1·00–1·11]). The sensitivity analyses supported the results of the main analysis.</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>Our findings suggest an association between high ambient temperature in early pregnancy and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. Further replication and investigation of mechanistic pathways might inform mitigation strategies.</p></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><p>Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, The National Center for Advancing Translational Science, National Institutes of Health.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 7","pages":"Pages e506-e514"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519624001219/pdfft?md5=49b1ab90d81f7a46ad8beb90d7f9850c&pid=1-s2.0-S2542519624001219-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141538780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"All-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and wildfire-related ozone: a multicountry two-stage time series analysis","authors":"Gongbo Chen PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Yuming Guo PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Xu Yue PhD ,&nbsp;Rongbin Xu PhD ,&nbsp;Wenhua Yu MPH ,&nbsp;Tingting Ye MSc ,&nbsp;Prof Shilu Tong PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Antonio Gasparrini PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Michelle L Bell PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Ben Armstrong PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Joel Schwartz PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Jouni J K Jaakkola PhD ,&nbsp;Eric Lavigne PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Haidong Kan PhD ,&nbsp;Dominic Royé PhD ,&nbsp;Aleš Urban PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera PhD ,&nbsp;Aurelio Tobias PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Bertil Forsberg PhD ,&nbsp;Ariana Zeka","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00117-7","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00117-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Wildfire activity is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O₃) pollution. However, no study to date has systematically examined the associations of wildfire-related O₃ exposure with mortality globally.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We did a multicountry two-stage time series analysis. From the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, data on daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths were obtained from 749 locations in 43 countries or areas, representing overlapping periods from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2016. We estimated the daily concentration of wildfire-related O₃ in study locations using a chemical transport model, and then calibrated and downscaled O₃ estimates to a resolution of 0·25° × 0·25° (approximately 28 km² at the equator). Using a random-effects meta-analysis, we examined the associations of short-term wildfire-related O₃ exposure (lag period of 0–2 days) with daily mortality, first at the location level and then pooled at the country, regional, and global levels. Annual excess mortality fraction in each location attributable to wildfire-related O₃ was calculated with pooled effect estimates and used to obtain excess mortality fractions at country, regional, and global levels.</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>Between 2000 and 2016, the highest maximum daily wildfire-related O₃ concentrations (≥30 μg/m³) were observed in locations in South America, central America, and southeastern Asia, and the country of South Africa. Across all locations, an increase of 1 μg/m³ in the mean daily concentration of wildfire-related O₃ during lag 0–2 days was associated with increases of 0·55% (95% CI 0·29 to 0·80) in daily all-cause mortality, 0·44% (–0·10 to 0·99) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0·82% (0·18 to 1·47) in daily respiratory mortality. The associations of daily mortality rates with wildfire-related O₃ exposure showed substantial geographical heterogeneity at the country and regional levels. Across all locations, estimated annual excess mortality fractions of 0·58% (95% CI 0·31 to 0·85; 31 606 deaths [95% CI 17 038 to 46 027]) for all-cause mortality, 0·41% (–0·10 to 0·91; 5249 [–1244 to 11 620]) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0·86% (0·18 to 1·51; 4657 [999 to 8206]) for respiratory mortality were attributable to short-term exposure to wildfire-related O₃.</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>In this study, we observed an increase in all-cause and respiratory mortality associated with short-term wildfire-related O₃ exposure. Effective risk and smoke management strategies should be implemented to protect the public from the impacts of wildfires.</p></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><p>Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 7","pages":"Pages e452-e462"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519624001177/pdfft?md5=f2c36ec34d941fad1a4883a23deecc67&pid=1-s2.0-S2542519624001177-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141538775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Urgent optimism for planetary health: lessons from the video game industry","authors":"Fatimah Ahamad ,&nbsp;Jemilah Mahmood ,&nbsp;Oliver Lacey-Hall ,&nbsp;Menaka Ganeson ,&nbsp;Hannah Zuhairah Ariff ,&nbsp;Tai-Jie Lim","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00110-4","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00110-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 7","pages":"Pages e426-e427"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519624001104/pdfft?md5=6299590a2f65c610e2f3e143fff7adfc&pid=1-s2.0-S2542519624001104-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141538787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ambient air pollution and daily mortality in ten cities of India: a causal modelling study","authors":"Jeroen de Bont PhD ,&nbsp;Bhargav Krishna DrPH ,&nbsp;Massimo Stafoggia PhD ,&nbsp;Tirthankar Banerjee PhD ,&nbsp;Hem Dholakia PhD ,&nbsp;Amit Garg PhD ,&nbsp;Vijendra Ingole PhD ,&nbsp;Suganthi Jaganathan MPH ,&nbsp;Prof Itai Kloog PhD ,&nbsp;Kevin Lane PhD ,&nbsp;Rajesh Kumar Mall PhD ,&nbsp;Siddhartha Mandal PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Amruta Nori-Sarma PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Dorairaj Prabhakaran DM ,&nbsp;Ajit Rajiva MESc ,&nbsp;Abhiyant Suresh Tiwari MPH ,&nbsp;Yaguang Wei PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Gregory A Wellenius PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Joel Schwartz PhD ,&nbsp;Poornima Prabhakaran PhD ,&nbsp;Petter Ljungman PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00114-1","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00114-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>The evidence for acute effects of air pollution on mortality in India is scarce, despite the extreme concentrations of air pollution observed. This is the first multi-city study in India that examines the association between short-term exposure to PM_2·5 and daily mortality using causal methods that highlight the importance of locally generated air pollution.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We applied a time-series analysis to ten cities in India between 2008 and 2019. We assessed city-wide daily PM_2·5 concentrations using a novel hybrid nationwide spatiotemporal model and estimated city-specific effects of PM_2·5 using a generalised additive Poisson regression model. City-specific results were then meta-analysed. We applied an instrumental variable causal approach (including planetary boundary layer height, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure) to evaluate the causal effect of locally generated air pollution on mortality. We obtained an integrated exposure–response curve through a multivariate meta-regression of the city-specific exposure–response curve and calculated the fraction of deaths attributable to air pollution concentrations exceeding the current WHO 24 h ambient PM_2·5 guideline of 15 μg/m³. To explore the shape of the exposure–response curve at lower exposures, we further limited the analyses to days with concentrations lower than the current Indian standard (60 μg/m³).</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>We observed that a 10 μg/m³ increase in 2-day moving average of PM_2·5 was associated with 1·4% (95% CI 0·7–2·2) higher daily mortality. In our causal instrumental variable analyses representing the effect of locally generated air pollution, we observed a stronger association with daily mortality (3·6% [2·1–5·0]) than our overall estimate. Our integrated exposure–response curve suggested steeper slopes at lower levels of exposure and an attenuation of the slope at high exposure levels. We observed two times higher risk of death per 10 μg/m³ increase when restricting our analyses to observations below the Indian air quality standard (2·7% [1·7–3·6]). Using the integrated exposure–response curve, we observed that 7·2% (4·2%–10·1%) of all daily deaths were attributed to PM_2·5 concentrations higher than the WHO guidelines.</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>Short-term PM_2·5 exposure was associated with a high risk of death in India, even at concentrations well below the current Indian PM_2·5 standard. These associations were stronger for locally generated air pollutants quantified through causal modelling methods than conventional time-series analysis, further supporting a plausible causal link.</p></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><p>Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 7","pages":"Pages e433-e440"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519624001141/pdfft?md5=3a3f0a8cb2fb29dd6c3c9f7a1c4f0005&pid=1-s2.0-S2542519624001141-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141538776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimated effects of reductions in processed meat consumption and unprocessed red meat consumption on occurrences of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and mortality in the USA: a microsimulation study","authors":"Joe Kennedy PhD ,&nbsp;Peter Alexander PhD ,&nbsp;Lindsey Smith Taillie PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Lindsay M Jaacks PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00118-9","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00118-9","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Background&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;High consumption of processed meat and unprocessed red meat is associated with increased risk of multiple chronic diseases, although there is substantial uncertainty regarding the relationship for unprocessed red meat. We developed a microsimulation model to estimate how reductions in processed meat and unprocessed red meat consumption could affect rates of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and mortality in the US adult population.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Methods&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;We used data from two versions of the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, one conducted during 2015–16 and one conducted during 2017–18, to create a simulated US population. The starting cohort was restricted to respondents aged 18 years or older who were not pregnant and had 2 days of dietary-recall data. First, we used previously developed risk models to estimate the baseline disease risk of an individual. For type 2 diabetes we used a logistic-regression model and for cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer we used Cox proportional-hazard models. We then multiplied baseline risk by relative risk associated with individual processed meat and unprocessed red meat consumption. Prevented occurrences of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and mortality were computed by taking the difference between the incidence in the baseline and intervention scenarios. All stages were repeated for ten iterations to correspond to a 10-year time span. Scenarios were reductions of 5%, 10%, 30%, 50%, 75%, and 100% in grams consumed of processed meat, unprocessed red meat, or both. Each scenario was repeated 50 times for uncertainty analysis.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Findings&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;The total number of individual respondents included in the simulated population was 8665, representing 242 021 876 US adults. 4493 (51·9%) of 8665 individuals were female and 4172 (48·1%) were male; mean age was 49·54 years (SD 18·38). At baseline, weighted mean daily consumption of processed meat was 29·1 g, with a 30% reduction being 8·7 g per day, and of unprocessed red meat was 46·7 g, with a 30% reduction being 14·0 g per day. We estimated that a 30% reduction in processed meat intake alone could lead to 352 900 (95% uncertainty interval 345 500–359 900) fewer occurrences of type 2 diabetes, 92 500 (85 600–99 900) fewer occurrences of cardiovascular disease, 53 300 (51 400–55 000) fewer occurrences of colorectal cancer, and 16 700 (15 300–17 700) fewer all-cause deaths during the 10-year period. A 30% reduction in unprocessed red meat intake alone could lead to 732 600 (725 700–740 400) fewer occurrences of type 2 diabetes, 291 500 (283 900–298 800) fewer occurrences of cardiovascular disease, 32 200 (31 500–32 700) fewer occurrences of colorectal cancer, and 46 100 (45 300–47 200) fewer all-cause deaths during the 10-year period. A 30% reduction in both processed meat and unprocessed red meat intake could lead to 1 073 400 (1 060 10","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 7","pages":"Pages e441-e451"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519624001189/pdfft?md5=b24f21e4f1ec6fc4faaa16aaa2d8520d&pid=1-s2.0-S2542519624001189-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141538778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mobilising and evaluating existing heat adaptation measures to protect maternal and child health","authors":"Dinesh Bhandari ,&nbsp;Peng Bi ,&nbsp;Jeffrey M Craig ,&nbsp;Eddie Robinson ,&nbsp;Wendy Pollock ,&nbsp;Zerina Lokmic-Tomkins","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00113-X","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00113-X","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 7","pages":"Pages e424-e425"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S254251962400113X/pdfft?md5=ea50c0b7f187577ddb79e0a01d000689&pid=1-s2.0-S254251962400113X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141538782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The emerging syndemic of climate change and non-communicable diseases","authors":"Ruth F Hunter ,&nbsp;Leandro Garcia ,&nbsp;Selina Dagless ,&nbsp;Andy Haines ,&nbsp;Tarra Penney ,&nbsp;Chloe Clifford Astbury ,&nbsp;Stephen Whiting ,&nbsp;Kremlin Wickramasinghe ,&nbsp;Francesca Racioppi ,&nbsp;Gauden Galea ,&nbsp;Hans Henri P Kluge","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00112-8","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00112-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 7","pages":"Pages e430-e431"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519624001128/pdfft?md5=cca4da4800609cd58a51327d1bd1b365&pid=1-s2.0-S2542519624001128-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141538785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change adaptation for health: using case study systems-based approaches to formulating solutions and guiding policy","authors":"Robin Fears ,&nbsp;Montira Pongsiri ,&nbsp;Peter F McGrath","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00111-6","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00111-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 7","pages":"Pages e428-e429"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519624001116/pdfft?md5=75455dbd8e09448c8708f532b10008bc&pid=1-s2.0-S2542519624001116-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141538777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping the distribution of Nipah virus infections: a geospatial modelling analysis","authors":"Yan-Qun Sun MPH ,&nbsp;Yuan-Yuan Zhang MSc ,&nbsp;Mei-Chen Liu BSc ,&nbsp;Jin-Jin Chen MSc ,&nbsp;Ting-Ting Li BSc ,&nbsp;Yan-Ning Liu BSc ,&nbsp;Ling-Yu Zhang BSc ,&nbsp;Tao Wang MPH ,&nbsp;Lin-Jie Yu BSc ,&nbsp;Tian-Le Che MPH ,&nbsp;Tian Tang BSc ,&nbsp;Qiang Xu PhD ,&nbsp;Chen-Long Lv PhD ,&nbsp;Bao-Gui Jiang PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Nick Golding PhD ,&nbsp;Max L Mehlman PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Simon I Hay DSc ,&nbsp;Prof Li-Qun Fang PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Wei Liu MD","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00119-0","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00119-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Nipah virus is a zoonotic paramyxovirus responsible for disease outbreaks with high fatality rates in south and southeast Asia. However, knowledge of the potential geographical extent and risk patterns of the virus is poor. We aimed to establish an integrated spatiotemporal and phylogenetic database of Nipah virus infections in humans and animals across south and southeast Asia.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>In this geospatial modelling analysis, we developed an integrated database containing information on the distribution of Nipah virus infections in humans and animals from 1998 to 2021. We conducted phylodynamic analysis to examine the evolution and migration pathways of the virus and meta-analyses to estimate the adjusted case-fatality rate. We used two boosted regression tree models to identify the potential ecological drivers of Nipah virus occurrences in spillover events and endemic areas, and mapped potential risk areas for Nipah virus endemicity.</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>749 people and eight bat species across nine countries were documented as being infected with Nipah virus. On the basis of 66 complete genomes of the virus, we identified two clades—the Bangladesh clade and the Malaysia clade—with the time of the most recent common ancestor estimated to be 1863. Adjusted case-fatality rates varied widely between countries and were higher for the Bangladesh clade than for the Malaysia clade. Multivariable meta-regression analysis revealed significant relationships between case-fatality rate estimates and viral clade (p=0·0021), source country (p=0·016), proportion of male patients (p=0·036), and travel time to health-care facilities (p=0·036). Temperature-related bioclimate variables and the probability of occurrence of <em>Pteropus medius</em> were important contributors to both the spillover and the endemic infection models.</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>The suitable niches for Nipah virus are more extensive than previously reported. Future surveillance efforts should focus on high-risk areas informed by updated projections. Specifically, intensifying zoonotic surveillance efforts, enhancing laboratory testing capacity, and implementing public health education in projected high-risk areas where no human cases have been reported to date will be crucial. Additionally, strengthening wildlife surveillance and investigating potential modes of transmission in regions with documented human cases is needed.</p></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><p>The Key Research and Development Program of China.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 7","pages":"Pages e463-e475"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519624001190/pdfft?md5=37666e10da3f70c4e52b558c7833b3ed&pid=1-s2.0-S2542519624001190-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141538781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global health costs of ambient PM2·5 from combustion sources: a modelling study supporting air pollution control strategies","authors":"Hao Yin PhD ,&nbsp;Erin E McDuffie PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Randall V Martin PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Michael Brauer ScD","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00098-6","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00098-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Climate actions targeting combustion sources can generate large ancillary health benefits via associated air-quality improvements. Therefore, understanding the health costs associated with ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2·5) from combustion sources can guide policy design for both air pollution and climate mitigation efforts.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>In this modelling study, we estimated the health costs attributable to ambient PM_2·5 from six major combustion sources across 204 countries using updated concentration–response models and an age-adjusted valuation method. We defined major combustion sources as the sum of total coal, liquid fuel and natural gas, solid biofuel, agricultural waste burning, other fires, and 50% of the anthropogenic fugitive, combustion, and industrial dust source.</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>Global long-term exposure to ambient PM_2·5 from combustion sources imposed US$1·1 (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·5) trillion in health costs in 2019, accounting for 56% of the total health costs from all PM_2·5 sources. Comparing source contributions to PM_2·5 concentrations and health costs, we observed a higher share of health costs from combustion sources compared to their contribution to population-weighted PM_2·5 concentration across 134 countries, accounting for more than 87% of the global population. This disparity was primarily attributed to the non-linear relationship between PM_2·5 concentration and its associated health costs. Globally, phasing out fossil fuels can generate 23% higher relative health benefits compared to their share of PM_2·5 reductions. Specifically, the share of health costs for total coal was 36% higher than the source's contributions to corresponding PM_2·5 concentrations and the share of health costs for liquid fuel and natural gas was 12% higher. Other than fossil fuels, South Asia was expected to show 16% greater relative health benefits than the percentage reduction in PM_2·5 from the abatement of solid biofuel emissions.</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>In most countries, targeting combustion sources might offer greater health benefits than non-combustion sources. This finding provides additional rationale for climate actions aimed at phasing out combustion sources, especially those related to fossil fuels and solid biofuel. Mitigation efforts designed according to source-specific health costs can more effectively avoid health costs than strategies that depend solely on the source contributions to overall PM_2·5 concentration.</p></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><p>The Health Effects Institute, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and NASA.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 7","pages":"Pages e476-e488"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519624000986/pdfft?md5=228cddc7eef895e7757cf4b4658fcf58&pid=1-s2.0-S2542519624000986-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141538779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}