Sustainable Cities and Society最新文献_第8页

Self-reported public fast charging infrastructure demand: What do existing and potential electric vehicle adopters want and where? 自我报告的公共快速充电基础设施需求：现有和潜在的电动汽车用户需要什么？

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105935

Ubaid Illahi , Robert Egan , Margaret O'Mahony , Brian Caulfield

Electric vehicles (EVs) promise emissions reduction, but adoption rates must increase to meet 2030 targets. Since public fast charging infrastructure (PFCI) is considered important to increase EV uptake, this research aims to assess its demand across existing and potential EV adopters in Ireland. Online mapping tools were used to capture 1635 self-reported locations where users prefer PFCI, along with other related preferences from 545 respondents. The results were analysed using a mixed-method approach including exploratory factor analysis (EFA), Geographic Information System (GIS), two-step cluster analysis, and qualitative analysis. The results indicate that expanding PFCI is critical for increasing EV uptake, with 81.4% of potential EV adopters showing a significant impact on uptake. Major deterrents identified include insufficient availability of public fast chargers followed by high charging costs. The qualitative analysis highlights existing EV users’ demand for improved end-user experiences, such as unified payment systems. Most preferred locations for PFCI installation include travel routes, followed by shopping centres/ supermarkets. Results also indicate that a reliable second-hand market would be key to increasing EV uptake. The findings from this study can serve policymakers in effectively rolling out PFCI, while the methodology employed can be replicated in other comparable study areas.

电动汽车（EV）有望实现减排，但要达到 2030 年的目标，必须提高采用率。由于公共快速充电基础设施（PFCI）被认为是提高电动汽车采用率的重要因素，本研究旨在评估爱尔兰现有和潜在电动汽车采用者对该基础设施的需求。研究使用在线绘图工具，从 545 名受访者那里获取了 1635 个用户自报的公共快速充电基础设施首选地点以及其他相关偏好。分析结果采用混合方法，包括探索性因子分析 (EFA)、地理信息系统 (GIS)、两步聚类分析和定性分析。结果表明，扩大 PFCI 对提高电动汽车使用率至关重要，81.4% 的潜在电动汽车采用者认为 PFCI 对提高电动汽车使用率有重大影响。发现的主要阻碍因素包括公共快速充电器供应不足，其次是充电成本过高。定性分析强调了现有电动汽车用户对改善终端用户体验的需求，如统一支付系统。安装 PFCI 的首选地点包括旅行路线，其次是购物中心/超市。研究结果还表明，可靠的二手市场是提高电动汽车使用率的关键。这项研究的结果可以帮助政策制定者有效地推广 PFCI，同时所采用的方法也可以在其他可比研究地区推广。

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引用次数: 0

A cross-scale indicator framework for the study of annual stability of land surface temperature in different land uses 用于研究不同土地利用中地表温度年稳定性的跨尺度指标框架

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105936

Shuyang Zhang , Chao Yuan , Taihan Chen , Beini Ma , Nianxiong Liu

Urban Land Surface Temperature (LST) is crucial in surface urban heat island (SUHI) and microclimate studies. Currently, research has focused on seasonal LST differences across land uses, but annual LST fluctuations (ΔLST) within the same land use and their drivers remain underexplored. To explore the impact of land characteristics and urban elements on seasonal LST differences, we propose annual LST stability. We constructed a new indicator framework based on Land Use and Land Cover (LULC), supplemented by Land Morphology (LM) and Land Properties (LP), for cross-scale ΔLST research. We identified land use ratios and key characteristics of urban plots with high stability. The results show an interactive effect of the green land ratio to other land on ΔLST. For residential and office land, the green space ratio (GSR) is key to annual LST stability. Residential land needs a GSR of more than 24 %. The floor area ratio (FAR) for residential and office land has a significant nonlinear effect on annual LST stability, with FARs of 1.8 for residential land and 1.5 for office land being most detrimental to the LST stability. For practical implications, we conducted cluster analyses on residential, office, and green lands, providing strategies to improve stability. These conclusions help balance land economic benefits with urban climate resilience and guide urban planning and design to address the challenges of heat and cold waves.

城市地表温度（LST）在地表城市热岛（SUHI）和小气候研究中至关重要。目前，研究主要集中在不同土地利用方式的季节性地表温度差异上，但对同一土地利用方式下的地表温度年波动（ΔLST）及其驱动因素的研究仍然不足。为了探索土地特征和城市要素对 LST 季节性差异的影响，我们提出了 LST 年度稳定性。我们构建了一个基于土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）的新指标框架，并辅以土地形态（LM）和土地性质（LP），用于跨尺度ΔLST 研究。我们确定了具有高度稳定性的城市地块的土地利用比率和主要特征。结果显示，绿地与其他土地的比例对ΔLST 有交互影响。对于住宅和办公用地而言，绿地率（GSR）是年度 LST 稳定性的关键。居住用地的绿地率需要大于 24%。居住用地和办公用地的容积率（FAR）对年 LST 稳定性有显著的非线性影响，其中居住用地的容积率为 1.8 和办公用地的容积率为 1.5 对 LST 稳定性最为不利。出于实际考虑，我们对住宅、办公和绿化用地进行了聚类分析，提出了提高稳定性的策略。这些结论有助于平衡土地经济效益和城市气候适应能力，指导城市规划和设计应对热浪和寒潮的挑战。

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引用次数: 0

Democratizing air: A co-created citizen science approach to indoor air quality monitoring 空气民主化：共同创建的室内空气质量监测公民科学方法

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105890

Sachit Mahajan , Rosy Mondardini , Dirk Helbing

Indoor air quality (IAQ) is crucial for public health, yet many remain unaware of indoor pollutants. Although Citizen Science has enhanced outdoor air quality understanding, its application to IAQ remains underexplored. This study introduces a new co-creation methodology that addresses key limitations in existing IAQ monitoring practices by integrating value-sensitive design principles and a ‘facilitated emergence’ paradigm. Through three co-creation workshops, we engaged multiple stakeholders in every stage, from problem definition to data interpretation. We employed adaptive facilitation strategies to effectively balance power dynamics among stakeholders, ensuring inclusive decision-making and mitigating potential biases. Our 30-day data collection campaign provided real-time measurements of Particulate Matter (PM) concentrations. Analysis revealed several locations with Indoor/Outdoor (I/O) PM2.5 ratios close to or above 1, uncovering hidden IAQ complexities and emphasizing the need for localized monitoring. We showed how citizen-generated data can improve spatial resolution, detecting local variations missed by official networks. Feedback from the co-creation workshops demonstrated shifts in participants’ perceptions regarding IAQ, accountability, and their role in environmental decision-making, moving from passive awareness to active engagement. Our findings demonstrate how this value-sensitive and community-driven bottom-up approach can enhance air quality assessment, inform targeted IAQ management strategies, and empower citizens in environmental health decisions.

室内空气质量（IAQ）对公众健康至关重要，但许多人仍然不了解室内污染物。虽然 "公民科学 "增强了人们对室外空气质量的了解，但其在室内空气质量方面的应用仍未得到充分探索。本研究引入了一种新的共同创造方法，通过整合价值敏感设计原则和 "促进涌现 "范式，解决了现有室内空气质量监测实践中的主要局限性。通过三次共同创造研讨会，我们让多个利益相关者参与了从问题定义到数据解释的每个阶段。我们采用了适应性促进策略，以有效平衡利益相关者之间的权力动态，确保决策的包容性并减少潜在的偏见。我们为期 30 天的数据收集活动提供了颗粒物 (PM) 浓度的实时测量数据。分析显示，多个地点的室内/室外（I/O）PM2.5 比率接近或超过 1，揭示了隐藏的室内空气质量复杂性，并强调了本地化监测的必要性。我们展示了公民生成的数据如何提高空间分辨率，发现官方网络所忽略的地方变化。共同创造研讨会的反馈表明，参与者对室内空气质量、问责制及其在环境决策中的作用的看法发生了转变，从被动认识转变为主动参与。我们的研究结果表明，这种价值敏感和社区驱动的自下而上的方法可以加强空气质量评估，为有针对性的室内空气质量管理策略提供信息，并增强公民在环境健康决策中的能力。

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引用次数: 0

How does digital technology innovation drive synergies for reducing pollution and carbon emissions? 数字技术创新如何推动减少污染和碳排放的协同效应？

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105932

Yiheng Zhu , Yingqi Xu , Shanggang Yin

Digital technological innovation is a key force in reshaping production and achieving green, low-carbon development, provides new impetus to reducing pollution emissions (PE) and carbon emissions (CE). This study employed the coupled coordination model, panel regression model and spatial Durbin model to examine how the digital technology innovation level (DTIL) and digital technology transfer scale (DTTS) affected synergies for reducing pollution and carbon emissions (PCRS) in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2015 to 2021. The results showed that: The evolution of PCRS is characterized by high synergy cities are increasing, low synergy cities are decreasing, and excellent coordination cities are becoming more concentrated. In the synergistic type migration evolution, the core area primarily ascends; the central and peripheral areas remain mostly stable. The effects of DTIL and DTTS on PCRS follow a non-linear inverted U-shaped pattern. DTIL has a stronger effect on reducing PE, while DTTS tends to increase CE. In terms of spatial spillover effects, DTIL has an inverted U-shaped relationship with PCRS in local regions and a positive spillover effect on neighboring regions; DTTS has a negative impact on PCRS in local regions, but shows an inverted U-shaped relationship in neighboring regions. Both of them also affect PCRS through industrial structure and energy efficiency.

数字技术创新是重塑生产方式、实现绿色低碳发展的关键力量，为减少污染排放（PE）和碳排放（CE）提供了新动力。本研究采用耦合协调模型、面板回归模型和空间杜宾模型，考察了2015-2021年数字技术创新水平（DTIL）和数字技术转移规模（DTTS）对长三角地区污染减排和碳减排协同效应（PCRS）的影响。研究结果表明PCRS的演化特点是高协同城市增加，低协同城市减少，优秀协同城市更加集中。在协同型迁移演化过程中，核心区主要呈上升趋势，中心区和外围区基本保持稳定。DTIL 和 DTTS 对 PCRS 的影响呈非线性倒 U 型。DTIL 对减少 PE 的影响更大，而 DTTS 则倾向于增加 CE。在空间溢出效应方面，DTIL 与本地区域的 PCRS 呈倒 U 型关系，对邻近区域有正向溢出效应；DTTS 对本地区域的 PCRS 有负向影响，但对邻近区域呈倒 U 型关系。二者还通过产业结构和能源效率影响 PCRS。

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引用次数: 0

Optimization of industrial layout in airport economic zone through government-enterprise interaction 政企互动优化空港经济区产业布局

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105905

Dan Wang , Xu Zhao , Zhongzhen Yang

To avoid the issue of industrial layout plans in Airport Economic Zones (AEZs) being hard to implement due to mismatched the land supply and demand, it is necessary to clarify industrial layout factors that the government (land supplier) and locating enterprises (land demanders) focus on. This study constructs a AEZ's industrial layout optimization model from the government's perspective and enterprises’ locating utility. Based on the Gale-Shapley algorithm, aiming at eliminating blocking pairs, we establish government-enterprise interacting rules and coordinating mechanisms, corresponding to two types of government-enterprise interactions, namely public consultation and investment promotion joint meeting. According to government transparency and enterprise participation, the optimization model and Agent-Based Model are adopted in the combination to simulate the government-enterprise interactions in the decision-making of industrial layout in AEZ, under two interaction rules of “enterprises provide feedback in one go - the government makes revisions in one go” and “enterprises provide feedback one by one - the government makes revisions one by one”, respectively. By analyzing the changing curves of their objective functions, the equilibrium point where both parties can reach an agreement is identified, and the industrial layout scheme in AEZ is determined that will be mutually accepted. It is found that positive interaction with high government transparency and high enterprise participation will help improve the rationality of the industrial layout in AEZ, maximizing the efficiency of spatial allocation of elements and resources.

为避免空港经济区产业布局规划因土地供需不匹配而难以实施的问题，有必要明确政府（土地供给方）和落户企业（土地需求方）关注的产业布局因素。本研究从政府视角和企业选址效用出发，构建了经济开发区产业布局优化模型。以 Gale-Shapley 算法为基础，以消除阻塞对为目标，建立政企互动规则和协调机制，分别对应公众咨询和招商引资联席会议两种政企互动方式。根据政府透明度和企业参与度，在 "企业一次性反馈--政府一次性修改 "和 "企业逐次反馈--政府逐次修改 "两种互动规则下，分别采用优化模型和基于代理模型（Agent-Based Model）相结合的方法，模拟AEZ产业布局决策中的政企互动。通过分析双方目标函数的变化曲线，找出双方能够达成一致的均衡点，确定双方都能接受的经济区产业布局方案。研究发现，政府透明度高和企业参与度高的良性互动有助于提高经济开发区产业布局的合理性，实现要素和资源空间配置效率的最大化。

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引用次数: 0

The evolution of urban ecological resilience: An evaluation framework based on vulnerability, sensitivity and self-organization 城市生态复原力的演变：基于脆弱性、敏感性和自组织的评估框架

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105933

Xinghua Feng , Fansheng Zeng , Becky P.Y. Loo , Yexi Zhong

Ecological resilience assessment has become a key link in urban sustainable governance. This study introduces a new evaluation framework to inform policy-making and practical applications. Based on the structural and functional dimensions of landscape patterns, it integrates the vulnerability, sensitivity and self-organization of resilience to point to desirable directions of ecological resilience. A composite ecological resilience index is compiled based on six indices of landscape diversity, landscape disturbance, source-sink patch distance, habitat quality, minimum cumulative resistance, and landscape restoration. The framework is particularly applicable to cities located in ecologically sensitive areas. Hence, Nanchang City, China was selected as a case study. Using 1km² hexagonal grids, the framework is applied to map spatiotemporal changes and to analyze various natural and anthropogenic driving forces of ecological resilience in Nanchang from 2000 to 2020. Research findings confirm the feasibility and value of the urban ecological resilience analysis framework. They also highlight the advantages of the framework in revealing spatially dynamic processes and ecological resilience contributing factors, making it a valuable and practical tool for sustainable urban planning and refined management decision-making.

生态复原力评估已成为城市可持续治理的关键环节。本研究引入了一个新的评估框架，为政策制定和实际应用提供依据。它以景观格局的结构和功能维度为基础，整合了复原力的脆弱性、敏感性和自组织性，指出了生态复原力的理想方向。根据景观多样性、景观干扰、源-汇斑块距离、栖息地质量、最小累积阻力和景观恢复六项指数，编制了生态复原力综合指数。该框架尤其适用于位于生态敏感地区的城市。因此，中国南昌市被选为案例研究对象。利用 1 平方公里的六边形网格，该框架被应用于绘制南昌市 2000 年至 2020 年的时空变化图，并分析生态恢复力的各种自然和人为驱动力。研究结果证实了城市生态复原力分析框架的可行性和价值。研究结果证实了城市生态复原力分析框架的可行性和价值，并强调了该框架在揭示空间动态过程和生态复原力促成因素方面的优势，使其成为可持续城市规划和精细化管理决策的宝贵实用工具。

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引用次数: 0

Healthy urban blue space design: Exploring the associations of blue space quality with recreational running and cycling using crowdsourced data 健康的城市蓝色空间设计：利用众包数据探索蓝色空间质量与休闲跑步和骑自行车的关系

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105929

Haoxiang Zhang , Steffen Nijhuis , Caroline Newton , Yinhua Tao

Urban blue space offers substantial health benefits by encouraging population physical activity. Despite much evidence on the nature-health nexus, the relationship between blue space and recreational exercises remains under-studied, limiting the realisation of health benefits in blue space design. Using crowdsourced data, including volunteered geographic information and street view image data, this study investigates the associations of blue space quality with recreational running and cycling in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Results show that recreational exercise levels on street segments vary based on the blue space type and design. Compared to inland canals and rivers, small-scale recreational waterbodies are more conducive to running but not cycling, while both activities tend to cluster around the Nieuwe Maas River. Interestingly, the Water View Index shows a general negative association with both activities after adjusting for the blue space type. Besides the waterbody characteristics, eye-level environmental factors, including higher Green View Index, lower building density, more diverse land use, greater connected street network and fewer traffic elements, are associated with more running and cycling exercises. Results for visual complexity and neighbourhood population composition are mixed depending on the exercise type. These findings are further translated into spatial design patterns for developing exercise-supportive and health-promoting blue spaces.

城市蓝色空间通过鼓励人们进行体育锻炼而为健康带来巨大益处。尽管有很多证据表明自然与健康之间存在联系，但对蓝色空间与休闲锻炼之间关系的研究仍然不足，这限制了蓝色空间设计对健康益处的实现。本研究利用众包数据（包括自愿提供的地理信息和街景图像数据），调查了荷兰鹿特丹蓝色空间质量与休闲跑步和骑自行车之间的关系。结果表明，街道上的休闲运动水平因蓝色空间类型和设计而异。与内陆运河和河流相比，小型休闲水体更有利于跑步，但不利于骑自行车，而这两项活动往往集中在新马斯河周围。有趣的是，在对蓝色空间类型进行调整后，水景指数与这两种活动普遍呈负相关。除水体特征外，包括较高的绿色景观指数、较低的建筑密度、更多样化的土地利用、更大的街道网络连接以及较少的交通要素在内的眼观环境因素也与更多的跑步和骑自行车运动有关。视觉复杂性和社区人口构成的结果因运动类型而异。这些发现将进一步转化为空间设计模式，用于开发支持锻炼和促进健康的蓝色空间。

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引用次数: 0

Research on the mechanism and path of the coupling of digital technology and environmental regulation to promote urban green efficiency 数字技术与环境监管耦合促进城市绿色效率的机制与路径研究

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society

Pub Date : 2024-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105906

Zhang Xiufan , Yin Shi , Li Meng

Digital technology, renowned for its embeddedness and integration, revolutionizes governance ideas, institutions, and models. Based on the panel data of 285 cities in China from 2007 to 2021, a panel vector autoregressive model (PVaR) is built to reveal the interaction mechanism between digital technology and environmental regulation. The fixed-effects panel model explored the green impact of the coupling of digital technology and environmental regulation, considering the mediating role of industrial upgrading, factor allocation, and public participation. The results show that digital technology and environmental regulation promote each other. The coupling of digital technology and environmental regulation enhances urban green efficiency, especially in economically advanced and eastern regions. Industrial upgrading, factor allocation, and public participation mediate this effect. Therefore, government departments should build ecological civilization by improving environmental management decision-making, promoting the deep integration of digital technology and environmental regulation, and exploring a new path of urban green development.

数字技术以其嵌入性和集成性著称，彻底改变了治理理念、体制和模式。基于 2007-2021 年中国 285 个城市的面板数据，建立面板向量自回归模型（PVaR），揭示数字技术与环境规制之间的互动机制。考虑到产业升级、要素配置和公众参与的中介作用，固定效应面板模型探讨了数字技术与环境规制耦合的绿色影响。结果表明，数字技术与环境监管相互促进。数字技术与环境监管的耦合提高了城市绿色效率，尤其是在经济发达地区和东部地区。产业升级、要素配置和公众参与是这一效应的中介。因此，政府部门应通过完善环境管理决策来建设生态文明，促进数字技术与环境监管的深度融合，探索城市绿色发展的新路径。

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引用次数: 0

Multi-objective energy management using a smart charging technique of a microgrid with the charging impact of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles 利用插电式混合动力电动汽车充电影响的微电网智能充电技术进行多目标能源管理

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society

Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105923

Amit Chakraborty, Saheli Ray

The Microgrid (MG) concept is being developed to better integrate renewable energy sources and automate distribution networks. Microgrids combine distributed generating units (DGs) and energy storage systems to achieve this. This research paper aims to simultaneously minimize the daily operational cost and net environmental pollution of a small MG system, factoring in the charging demand from Plug-in-Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and consumer load demands. The proposed energy management process not only minimizes operational costs and emissions, but also determines the optimal battery size for the energy storage system. The analysis also explores the importance of two critical variables - the operation and maintenance costs of the DGs, and the total daily cost of the battery energy storage system. The demand for PHEV charging is managed using an intelligent charging approach. Given the complexity of the optimization, a recently developed metaheuristic algorithm, Slime Mould Algorithm (SMA), is applied. The performance of SMA is compared against the Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm and Sine Cosine Algorithm. To solve the multi-objective problem, a weighted sum method maintaining non-dominance and a fuzzy decision-maker technique are employed alongside the suggested algorithms. Three different scenarios verify the proposed method's effectiveness.

微电网（MG）概念的提出是为了更好地整合可再生能源并实现配电网络自动化。微电网结合了分布式发电机组（DG）和储能系统，以实现这一目标。本研究论文旨在将插电式混合动力电动汽车（PHEV）的充电需求和消费者的负载需求考虑在内，同时最大限度地降低小型 MG 系统的日常运营成本和环境净污染。所提出的能源管理流程不仅能最大限度地降低运营成本和排放，还能确定储能系统的最佳电池尺寸。分析还探讨了两个关键变量的重要性，即 DG 的运行和维护成本以及电池储能系统的每日总成本。PHEV 充电需求采用智能充电方法进行管理。考虑到优化的复杂性，采用了最近开发的一种元启发式算法--粘液模算法（SMA）。SMA 的性能与蚱蜢优化算法和正弦余弦算法进行了比较。为了解决多目标问题，除了建议的算法外，还采用了保持非优势的加权和方法和模糊决策者技术。三个不同的场景验证了建议方法的有效性。

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引用次数: 0

Heatwaves at work: Typology and spatial distributions of occupations exposed to heatwaves in Korea 工作场所的热浪：韩国受热浪影响职业的类型和空间分布

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society

Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105921

Sangyun Jeong , Hanna Kang , Minjin Cho , Up Lim

Adapting to heatwaves and other climate change impacts requires identifying vulnerable demographic segments within regions. However, investigations into the spatial distribution of heatwave-vulnerable workers and its implications for local economies have been limited. This study categorizes occupations exposed to heatwaves into five subgroups and analyzes temporal changes in their spatial distributions via a spatial Markov chain model. The results indicate significant heterogeneity in vulnerability among heatwave-exposed occupations, with variations in income, foreign worker proportions, and job instability. The analysis reveals that heatwave-exposed workers are primarily concentrated outside the capital region. Group 3 (manufacturing) exhibited notable industrial clustering, whereas Group 5 (agriculture and fishery) presented high and stable concentrations in rural areas. Conversely, Group 4 (low-skilled and market-sensitive) demonstrates substantial spatial variability. Spatial Markov chain analysis highlights Group 3′s strong agglomeration tendencies influenced by neighboring cities, whereas Group 5 shows minimal spatial effects. Groups 2 and 4 experience considerable shifts in spatial distribution, with Group 2 showing only a 68.7 % probability of sustaining high concentration and Group 4 showing a 62.7 % probability. Recommendations for adaptation strategies and future research related to the economic impacts of climate change are provided on the basis of these findings.

要适应热浪和其他气候变化的影响，就必须确定区域内的弱势人口群体。然而，对易受热浪影响的工人的空间分布及其对当地经济的影响的调查还很有限。本研究将易受热浪影响的职业分为五个亚组，并通过空间马尔可夫链模型分析其空间分布的时间变化。结果表明，受热浪影响的职业在脆弱性方面存在明显的异质性，在收入、外籍工人比例和工作不稳定性方面都存在差异。分析表明，受热浪影响的工人主要集中在首都以外地区。第 3 组（制造业）表现出明显的产业集聚，而第 5 组（农业和渔业）则高度且稳定地集中在农村地区。与此相反，第 4 组（低技能和对市场敏感）显示出很大的空间变异性。空间马尔可夫链分析凸显了第 3 组受周边城市影响的强烈集聚趋势，而第 5 组的空间效应则微乎其微。第 2 组和第 4 组的空间分布发生了很大变化，第 2 组维持高度集中的概率仅为 68.7%，第 4 组为 62.7%。在这些研究结果的基础上，提出了与气候变化的经济影响有关的适应战略和未来研究建议。

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引用次数: 0