Journal of Biological Dynamics最新文献

Self-medication is an important initial response to illness in Africa. This mode of medication is often done with the help of African traditional medicines. Because of the misconception that African traditional medicines can cure/prevent all diseases, some Africans may opt for COVID-19 prevention and management by self-medicating. Thus to efficiently predict the dynamics of COVID-19 in Africa, the role of the self-medicated population needs to be taken into account. In this paper, we formulate and analyse a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 in Cameroon. The model is represented by a system of compartmental age-structured ODEs that takes into account the self-medicated population and subdivides the human population into two age classes relative to their current immune system strength. We use our model to propose policy measures that could be implemented in the course of an epidemic in order to better handle cases of self-medication.

In this paper, a deterministic model characterizing the within-host infection of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in intrahepatic and extrahepatic tissues is presented. In addition, the model also includes the effect of the cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) immunity described by a linear activation rate by infected cells. Firstly, the non-negativity and boundedness of solutions of the model are established. Secondly, the basic reproduction number $R_{01}$ and immune reproduction number $R_{02}$ are calculated, respectively. Three equilibria, namely, infection-free, CTL immune response-free and infected equilibrium with CTL immune response are discussed in terms of these two thresholds. Thirdly, the stability of these three equilibria is investigated theoretically as well as numerically. The results show that when $R_{01}<1$ , the virus will be cleared out eventually and the CTL immune response will also disappear; when $R_{02}<1<R_{01}$ , the virus persists within the host, but the CTL immune response disappears eventually; when $R_{02}>1$ , both of the virus and the CTL immune response persist within the host. Finally, a brief discussion will be given.

This paper studies a delayed viral infection model with diffusion and a general incidence rate. A discrete-time model was derived by applying nonstandard finite difference scheme. The positivity and boundedness of solutions are presented. We established the global stability of equilibria in terms of $R_0$ by applying Lyapunov method. The results showed that if $R_0$ is less than 1, then the infection-free equilibrium $E_0$ is globally asymptotically stable. If $R_0$ is greater than 1, then the infection equilibrium $E_{\ast }$ is globally asymptotically stable. Numerical experiments are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results.

Incidence vs. Cumulative Cases (ICC) curves are introduced and shown to provide a simple framework for parameter identification in the case of the most elementary epidemiological model, consisting of susceptible, infected, and removed compartments. This novel methodology is used to estimate the basic reproduction ratio of recent outbreaks, including those associated with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Kaposi Sarcoma (KS) is the most common AIDS-defining cancer, even as HIV-positive people live longer. Like other herpesviruses, human herpesvirus-8 (HHV-8) establishes a lifelong infection of the host that in association with HIV infection may develop at any time during the illness. With the increasing global incidence of KS, there is an urgent need of designing optimal therapeutic strategies for HHV-8-related infections. Here we formulate two models with innate and adaptive immune mechanisms, relevant for non-AIDS KS (NAKS) and AIDS-KS, where the initial condition of the second model is given by the equilibrium state of the first one. For the model with innate mechanism (MIM), we define an infectivity resistance threshold that will determine whether the primary HHV-8 infection of B-cells will progress to secondary infection of progenitor cells, a concept relevant for viral carriers in the asymptomatic phase. The optimal control strategy has been employed to obtain treatment efficacy in case of a combined antiretroviral therapy (cART). For the MIM we have shown that KS therapy alone is capable of reducing the HHV-8 load. In the model with adaptive mechanism (MAM), we show that if cART is administered at optimal levels, that is, 0.48 for protease inhibitors, 0.79 for reverse transcriptase inhibitors and 0.25 for KS therapy, both HIV-1 and HHV-8 can be reduced. The predictions of these mathematical models have the potential to offer more effective therapeutic interventions in the treatment of NAKS and AIDS-KS.

This paper is concerned with a stochastic predator-prey model with Holling II increasing function in the predator. By applying the Lyapunov analysis method, we demonstrate the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution. Then we show there is a stationary distribution which implies the stochastic persistence of the predator and prey in the model. Moreover, we obtain respectively sufficient conditions for weak persistence in the mean and extinction of the prey and extinction of the predator. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our main results and the discussion and conclusion are presented.

In this paper, with eclipse stage in consideration, we propose an HIV-1 infection model with a general incidence rate and CTL immune response. We first study the existence and local stability of equilibria, which is characterized by the basic infection reproduction number $R_0$ and the basic immunity reproduction number $R_1$. The local stability analysis indicates the occurrence of transcritical bifurcations of equilibria. We confirm the bifurcations at the disease-free equilibrium and the infected immune-free equilibrium with transmission rate and the decay rate of CTLs as bifurcation parameters, respectively. Then we apply the approach of Lyapunov functions to establish the global stability of the equilibria, which is determined by the two basic reproduction numbers. These theoretical results are supported with numerical simulations. Moreover, we also identify the high sensitivity parameters by carrying out the sensitivity analysis of the two basic reproduction numbers to the model parameters.

In this paper, we introduce three within-host and one within-vector models of Zika virus. The within-host models are the target cell limited model, the target cell limited model with natural killer (NK) cells class, and a within-host-within-fetus model of a pregnant individual. The within-vector model includes the Zika virus dynamics in the midgut and salivary glands. The within-host models are not structurally identifiable with respect to data on viral load and NK cell counts. After rescaling, the scaled within-host models are locally structurally identifiable. The within-vector model is structurally identifiable with respect to viremia data in the midgut and salivary glands. Using Monte Carlo Simulations, we find that target cell limited model is practically identifiable from data on viremia; the target cell limited model with NK cell class is practically identifiable, except for the rescaled half saturation constant. The within-host-within-fetus model has all fetus-related parameters not practically identifiable without data on the fetus, as well as the rescaled half saturation constant is also not practically identifiable. The remaining parameters are practically identifiable. Finally we find that none of the parameters of the within-vector model is practically identifiable.

Alzheimer's disease is a degenerative disorder characterized by the loss of synapses and neurons from the brain, as well as the accumulation of amyloid-based neuritic plaques. While it remains a matter of contention whether β-amyloid causes the neurodegeneration, β-amyloid aggregation is associated with the disease progression. Therefore, gaining a clearer understanding of this aggregation may help to better understand the disease. We develop a continuous-time model for β-amyloid aggregation using concepts from chemical kinetics and population dynamics. We show the model conserves mass and establish conditions for the existence and stability of equilibria. We also develop two discrete-time approximations to the model that are dynamically consistent. We show numerically that the continuous-time model produces sigmoidal growth, while the discrete-time approximations may exhibit oscillatory dynamics. Finally, sensitivity analysis reveals that aggregate concentration is most sensitive to parameters involved in monomer production and nucleation, suggesting the need for good estimates of such parameters.

Studies have shown that sexual transmission, both heterosexually and homosexually, is one of the main ways of HBV infection. Based on this fact, we propose a mathematical model to study the sexual transmission of HBV among adults by classifying adults into men and women and considering both same-sex and opposite-sex transmissions of HBV in adults. Firstly, we calculate the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and the disease-free equilibrium point $E_0$. Secondly, by analysing the sensitivity of $R_0$ in terms of model parameters, we find that the infection rate among people who have same-sex partners, the frequency of homosexual contact and the immunity rate of adults play important roles in the transmission of HBV. Moreover, we use our model to fit the reported data in China and forecast the trend of hepatitis B. Our results demonstrate that popularizing the basic knowledge of HBV among residents, advocating healthy and reasonable sexual life style, reducing the number of adult carriers, and increasing the immunization rate of adults are effective measures to prevent and control hepatitis B.