Journal of Biological Dynamics最新文献

We propose a model of a joint spread of heroin use and HIV infection. The unique disease-free equilibrium always exists and it is stable if the basic reproduction numbers of heroin use and HIV infection are both less than 1. The semi-trivial equilibrium of HIV infection (heroin use) exists if the basic reproduction number of HIV infection (heroin use) is larger than 1 and it is locally stable if and only if the invasion number of heroin use (HIV infection) is less than 1. When both semi-trivial equilibria lose their stability, a coexistence equilibrium occurs, which may not be unique. We compare the model to US data on heroin use and HIV transmission. We conclude that the two diseases in the US are in a coexistence regime. Elasticities of the invasion numbers suggest two foci for control measures: targeting the drug abuse epidemic and reducing HIV risk in drug-users.

We investigate the existence of a two-dimensional invariant manifold that attracts all nonzero orbits in 3 species Lotka-Volterra systems with identical linear growth rates. This manifold, which we call the balance simplex, is the common boundary of the basin of repulsion of the origin and the basin of repulsion of infinity. The balance simplex is linked to ecological models where there is 'growth when rare' and competition for finite resources. By including alternative food sources for predators we cater for predator-prey type models. In the case that the model is competitive, the balance simplex coincides with the carrying simplex which is an unordered manifold (no two points may be ordered componentwise), but for non-competitive models the balance simplex need not be unordered. The balance simplex of our models contains all limit sets and is the graph of a piecewise analytic function over the unit probability simplex.

We formulate a deterministic epidemic model for the spread of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). We have included asymptomatic, quarantine and isolation compartments in the model, as studies have stressed upon the importance of these population groups on the transmission of the disease. We calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and show that for [Formula: see text] the disease dies out and for [Formula: see text] the disease is endemic. Using sensitivity analysis we establish that [Formula: see text] is most sensitive to the rate of quarantine and isolation and that a high level of quarantine needs to be maintained as well as isolation to control the disease. Based on this we devise optimal quarantine and isolation strategies, noting that high levels need to be maintained during the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from the Wuhan outbreak, which has nearly run its course we estimate that [Formula: see text] which while in agreement with other estimates in the literature is on the lower side.

A novel strategy for controlling mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and Zika, involves releases of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes as Wolbachia cause early embryo death when an infected male mates with an uninfected female. In this work, we introduce a delay differential equation model with mating inhomogeneity to discuss mosquito population suppression based on Wolbachia. Our analyses show that the wild mosquitoes could be eliminated if either the adult mortality rate exceeds the threshold [Formula: see text] or the release amount exceeds the threshold [Formula: see text] uniformly. We also present the nonlinear dependence of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] on the parameters, respectively, as well as the effect of pesticide spraying on wild mosquitoes. Our simulations suggest that the releasing should be started at least 5 weeks before the peak dengue season, taking into account both the release amount and the suppression speed.

In this paper, we generalize a previous model of within-host dengue infection with a nonconstant monocyte production rate. We establish the existence of three equilibria and give some local stability results. We then estimate three parameters in the model from clinical data for dengue virus serotype 2. It is then shown that the model can exhibit behaviours that are not possible under the assumption of constant monocyte production. Lastly, we perform a sensitivity analysis of the model in two contexts, antiviral treatment and immunostimulatory treatment. The results predict that antiviral treatments that reduce the viral replication rate in infected monocytes are the most effective, while immunostimulatory treatments that increase the rate at which infected monocytes are removed are best.

We analysed a epidemiological model with varying populations of susceptible, carriers, infectious and recovered (SCIR) and a general non-linear incidence rate of the form [Formula: see text]. We show that this model exhibits two positive equilibriums: the disease-free and disease equilibrium. We proved using the Lyapunov direct method that these two equilibriums are globally asymptotically stable under some sufficient conditions over the functions f, g, h.

Scientists have been seeking ways to use Wolbachia to eliminate the mosquitoes that spread human diseases. Could Wolbachia be the determining factor in controlling the mosquito-borne infectious diseases? To answer this question mathematically, we develop a reaction-diffusion model with free boundary in a one-dimensional environment. We divide the female mosquito population into two groups: one is the uninfected mosquito population that grows in the whole region while the other is the mosquito population infected with Wolbachia that occupies a finite small region. The mosquito population infected with Wolbachia invades the environment with a spreading front governed by a free boundary satisfying the well-known one-phase Stefan condition. For the resulting free boundary problem, we establish criteria under which spreading and vanishing occur. Our results provide useful insights on designing a feasible mosquito releasing strategy that infects the whole mosquito population with Wolbachia and eradicates the mosquito-borne diseases eventually.

We take into account nonlinear density-dependent mortality term and patch structure to deal with the global convergence dynamics of almost periodic delay Nicholson's blowflies system in this paper. To begin with, we prove that the solutions of the addressed system exist globally and are bounded above. What's more, by the methods of Lyapunov function and analytical techniques, we establish new criteria to check the existence and global attractivity of the positive asymptotically almost periodic solution. In the end, we arrange an example to illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the obtained results.

To investigate the impact of periodic and impulsive releases of sterile mosquitoes on the interactive dynamics between wild and sterile mosquitoes, we adapt the new idea where only those sexually active sterile mosquitoes are included in the modelling process and formulate new models with time delay. We consider different release strategies and compare their model dynamics. Under certain conditions, we derive corresponding model formulations and prove the existence of periodic solutions for some of those models. We provide numerical examples to demonstrate the dynamical complexity of the models and propose further studies.