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Wind energy cost evaluation based on a techno-economic assessment in the Algerian highlands 基于阿尔及利亚高原技术经济评估的风能成本评估
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101502
Fatima Zohra Aroua , Ahmed Salhi , Omar Charrouf , Djemai Naimi , Khaled Fettah

Wind energy is an important and growing source of renewable energy. It is becoming increasingly integrated into electricity markets around the world. In Algeria in particular, the integration of wind power into the electricity grid is being developed based on a government project to achieve a high penetration rate. In this context, this study is elaborated to analyse the techno-economic assessment of the electrical energy production from four selected wind turbines: Vestas V-80; Suzlon S-82; Enercon E-58 and Gamesa G-114, installed at three sites in the Algerian highlands, namely El Beidh, Sétif and Djelfa. The three highland sites are chosen due to their good wind potential. On the other hand, the Algerian transmission electrical network DZ-114 bus presents some technical problems in the highlands related to low voltage profiles. Therefore, wind farm integration in these three sites can be beneficial as voltage magnitude support. Besides, it can be an important tool to reduce fossil fuel consumption and pollutant gases from conventional plants. Wind potential assessment and economic analysis were carried out for the three selected sites using wind speed data measured 10 m above ground level over 10 years. The results obtained confirm that the Gamesa G114 wind turbine is the most suitable for all the sites and in particular for El Bayadh, as it offers both the highest annual energy production (AEP) and capacity factor (CF) values in all the selected sites and guarantees the lowest unit energy cost (UEC) compared to other types of wind turbines.

风能是一种重要且不断增长的可再生能源。它正日益融入世界各地的电力市场。特别是在阿尔及利亚,风能并入电网的工作正在政府项目的基础上进行,以实现较高的渗透率。在此背景下,本研究对四种选定的风力涡轮机所产生的电能进行了技术经济评估分析:Vestas V-80、Suzlon S-82、Enercon E-58 和 Gamesa G-114,安装在阿尔及利亚高原的三个地点,即 El Beidh、Sétif 和 Djelfa。选择这三个高地是因为它们具有良好的风能潜力。另一方面,阿尔及利亚输电网络 DZ-114 总线在高地存在一些与低电压有关的技术问题。因此,将风电场并入这三个地点可以起到电压等级支持的作用。此外,它还是减少传统发电厂化石燃料消耗和污染气体的重要工具。利用 10 年来在离地面 10 米处测量到的风速数据,对三个选定地点进行了风能潜力评估和经济分析。结果证实,Gamesa G114 风机最适合所有地点,特别是 El Bayadh,因为它在所有选定地点都能提供最高的年发电量 (AEP) 和容量因子 (CF),并且与其他类型的风机相比,能保证最低的单位能源成本 (UEC)。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of municipal waste reduction and recycling policies on the economic feasibility of landfill gas generation 城市垃圾减量和回收政策对垃圾填埋气发电经济可行性的影响
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101493
Tânia Galavote , Gisele de Lorena Diniz Chaves , Luciana Harue Yamane , Renato Ribeiro Siman

Landfill gas (LFG) projects for energy production have several advantages. However, to avoid the impossibility of these projects, it is crucial to assess the long-term effects of public policies that promote the diversion of waste disposed of in landfills. Therefore, the objective of the present work is to evaluate the effects of the application of public policies, which influence recycling, reduction of generation, and inadequate disposal reduction of municipal solid waste (MSW), in the potential of electricity generation in landfills, as well as to evaluate its effect on economic viability. A System Dynamics model was employed to estimate methane production while considering variations in the quantity and make-up of MSW over time. The results showed that the scenarios with the greatest potential for methane generation and electricity were those with less diversion of biodegradable waste. Furthermore, the economic performance demonstrated that none of the possibilities are viable except with carbon credits extra income. However, all scenarios could become viable by increasing the energy sale rate above 93.2 USD.MWh−1. Another option calls for lowering the discount rate through government incentives to a percentage below 10 % and an investment cost below 77 % of the original value. These elements aid in long-term planning and give decision-makers a future vision of the impact of these policies.

用于能源生产的垃圾填埋气(LFG)项目具有多项优势。然而,为了避免这些项目无法实施,必须评估促进垃圾填埋场废物分流的公共政策的长期影响。因此,本研究的目的是评估公共政策的应用对垃圾填埋场发电潜力的影响,这些公共政策影响了城市固体废物(MSW)的回收利用、发电量的减少和不适当的处置减少,并评估其对经济可行性的影响。我们采用了一个系统动力学模型来估算甲烷产量,同时考虑到城市固体废物的数量和组成随时间的变化。结果表明,甲烷生产和发电潜力最大的方案是生物可降解废物分流较少的方案。此外,经济效益表明,除了碳信用额额外收入外,其他方案都不可行。不过,如果将能源销售率提高到 93.2 美元/兆瓦时-1 以上,所有方案都是可行的。另一种方案要求通过政府激励措施降低贴现率,使其低于 10%,投资成本低于原值的 77%。这些要素有助于长期规划,并为决策者提供了这些政策影响的未来愿景。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Hybrid vigor: Why hybrids with sustainable biofuels are better than pure electric vehicles” [Energy Sustain. Dev. Volume 76 (2023) 101261] 混合动力的活力:为什么使用可持续生物燃料的混合动力车优于纯电动汽车"[《能源可持续发展》第76卷 (2023) 101261]
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101487
Marcelo Antunes Gauto , Marcelo Falsarella Carazzolle , Marilene Elizabete Pavan Rodrigues , Ricardo Simões de Abreu , Tomaz Carraro Pereira , Gonçalo Amarante Guimarães Pereira
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引用次数: 0
In situ performance evaluation of a solar water heating system for a hospital laundry in the Sahel 萨赫勒地区医院洗衣房太阳能热水系统的现场性能评估
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101499
Claude Sara Lekombo , Kokouvi Edem N’Tsoukpoe , Carolina Flores Bahamonde , Mihaela Dudita , Gaëlle Kafira Ko , Kodjo Sédi Agbokou

There is a limited number of empirical studies on the actual energy output of solar water heating systems (SWHSs). In the Sahel, where solar potential is abundant, the transition to sustainable energy solutions requires comprehensive evaluations of SWHSs, including their economic viability. Such assessments are crucial for informed decision-making by stakeholders and for facilitating the widespread adoption of SWHSs, including their integration into industrial processes. This paper presents a year-round experimental study assessing the real-world performance and economic viability of a SWHS integrated into a hospital laundry in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. The primary aim of the study is to analyse the practical performance of the integrated collector storage (ICS) SWHS and evaluate its economic viability. The performance of the ICS SWHS is monitored over the course of a year. Data collection included measurements of solar irradiation, ambient temperature, inlet and outlet water temperatures, and energy output of the SWHS. Economic assessments considered factors such as installation costs, energy savings, and payback periods. Environmental implications were evaluated through the estimation of avoided CO2 emissions. The ICS SWHS achieved an efficiency of 38 % and a solar fraction of 17 %, resulting in approximately 1.3 t of avoided CO2 emissions annually. Economic assessments revealed extended payback periods, leading to exploration of alternatives. Subsequently, a water-in-glass evacuated tube collector (ETC) system, deemed more cost-effective, was selected and it indicated superior energy production. Preliminary results suggest compelling payback periods for the ETC system, ranging from 3.1 to 4.5 years under realistic scenarios. The study underscores the significance of practical experimentation, appropriate technology selection, and improved market regulations for informed decision-making. SWHSs present a promising avenue for sustainable energy solutions in the Sahelian region and beyond, offering both economic benefits and environmental impact.

有关太阳能热水系统(SWHSs)实际能源产出的实证研究数量有限。在太阳能潜力巨大的萨赫勒地区,向可持续能源解决方案过渡需要对太阳能热水系统进行全面评估,包括其经济可行性。此类评估对于利益相关者做出明智决策以及促进太阳能热水系统的广泛采用(包括将其集成到工业流程中)至关重要。本文介绍了一项全年实验研究,对布基纳法索瓦加杜古一家医院洗衣房集成的 SWHS 的实际性能和经济可行性进行评估。这项研究的主要目的是分析集成集热器存储系统(ICS)的实际性能,并评估其经济可行性。在一年的时间里,对 ICS SWHS 的性能进行了监测。数据收集包括测量太阳辐照度、环境温度、进出水温度以及 SWHS 的能量输出。经济评估考虑了安装成本、节能效果和投资回收期等因素。通过估算避免的二氧化碳排放量,评估了对环境的影响。ICS SWHS 的效率为 38%,太阳能比例为 17%,每年可避免约 1.3 吨二氧化碳排放。经济评估显示,投资回收期延长,因此需要探索替代方案。随后,被认为更具成本效益的水包玻璃真空管集热器(ETC)系统被选中,并显示出其卓越的能源生产性能。初步结果表明,ETC 系统的投资回收期很短,在实际情况下为 3.1 至 4.5 年。这项研究强调了实际实验、适当的技术选择和完善的市场监管对明智决策的重要意义。SWHS 为萨赫勒地区及其他地区的可持续能源解决方案提供了一条大有可为的途径,既能带来经济效益,又能对环境产生影响。
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引用次数: 0
Decentralization, decarbonization and digitalization in swarm electrification 蜂群电气化中的分散化、去碳化和数字化
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101489
Ida Fuchs, Jayaprakash Rajasekharan, Ümit Cali

Meeting the targets of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7, which focuses on ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all, poses significant challenges. Overcoming these hurdles requires innovative solutions that can bridge the gap between current capabilities and future needs. Swarm electrification emerges as a promising concept that could accelerate progress towards achieving SDG 7 goals by leveraging the collective power of decentralized energy resources. This paper presents a literature review on swarm electrification and related insights from case studies. The study delves into the concept of swarm electrification, placing it within the context of the prevailing trends in the power system sector: decentralization, decarbonization, and digitalization. It examines the role of digital technologies in enhancing swarm electrification and categorizes application areas according to the phases of swarm electrification. Particular attention is given to the technologies underpinning Deep Digitalization, such as distributed ledger technology, notably blockchain, and artificial intelligence, with a focus on machine learning. These technologies play pivotal roles in advancing swarm electrification. The review demonstrates how deep digitalization can facilitate the improvement of swarm electrification and ultimately support the integration of bottom-up initiatives with top-down grid expansion efforts over time.

可持续发展目标(SDG)7 的重点是确保人人都能获得负担得起、可靠、可持续的现代能源,实现该目标面临着巨大挑战。要克服这些障碍,就必须有创新的解决方案,以缩小当前能力与未来需求之间的差距。蜂群电气化是一个大有可为的概念,它可以利用分散能源资源的集体力量,加快实现可持续发展目标 7 的进度。本文对蜂群电气化进行了文献综述,并介绍了案例研究的相关见解。本研究深入探讨了蜂群电气化的概念,并将其置于电力系统领域当前趋势的背景下:分散化、去碳化和数字化。研究探讨了数字技术在加强蜂群电气化方面的作用,并根据蜂群电气化的不同阶段对应用领域进行了分类。其中特别关注了支撑深度数字化的技术,如分布式账本技术(尤其是区块链)和人工智能(重点是机器学习)。这些技术在推进蜂群电气化方面发挥着关键作用。综述展示了深度数字化如何促进改善蜂群电气化,并最终支持将自下而上的倡议与自上而下的电网扩展努力相结合。
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引用次数: 0
How does government climate risk perception affect corporate energy consumption and intensity? 政府的气候风险意识如何影响企业的能源消耗和强度?
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101496
Minghao Chen, Hongyu Xiao, Liya Li, Nan Li, Lina Liu

Fossil energy consumption is an important factor contributing to global warming, which profoundly impacts healthy economic and social development. Moreover, as a leader in the fight against climate change, the government's climate perception has a crucial influence on the fight against climate change. Based on Chinese government work reports and microlevel enterprise data, this study combines machine learning and text analysis methods to construct a government climate risk perception indicator. The study systematically examines the impact of government climate risk perception on corporate fossil energy consumption and intensity. The results reveal that (1) A 1 % increase in the government's climate risk perception leads to a respective 1.67 % and 1.71 % reduction in corporate energy consumption and energy intensity. (2) A 1 % increase in government climate risk perception corresponds to a 0.274 % increase in environmental regulation, reduces firms' low-quality energy consumption by 0.001 %, and increases firms' high-quality energy consumption by 0.001 %, lowering overall fossil energy consumption. (3) The negative effect of government climate risk perception on fossil energy consumption and intensity is more significant for small-scale firms, firms subject to high environmental regulatory intensity, and dry and wet climate zones. (4) The spatial spillover effect test shows that a 1 % increase in government climate risk perception will reduce neighboring areas' energy consumption by 7.5 %, indicating that government climate risk perception will not only affect local energy consumption, but also affects neighboring areas' energy consumption. Finally, the study presents proposed policy recommendations for governments to navigate climate change risks and facilitate the global energy transition, and achieve sustainable development goals.

化石能源消耗是导致全球变暖的重要因素,深刻影响着经济和社会的健康发展。此外,作为应对气候变化的领导者,政府的气候认知对应对气候变化有着至关重要的影响。本研究基于中国政府工作报告和微观企业数据,结合机器学习和文本分析方法,构建了政府气候风险感知指标。研究系统考察了政府气候风险认知对企业化石能源消耗和强度的影响。结果表明:(1)政府气候风险感知每增加 1%,企业能源消耗和能源强度就会分别降低 1.67% 和 1.71%。(2) 政府气候风险认知每增加 1%,环境监管就会增加 0.274%,企业的低质量能源消耗就会减少 0.001%,企业的高质量能源消耗就会增加 0.001%,从而降低总体化石能源消耗。(3)政府气候风险认知对化石能源消耗和强度的负效应在小规模企业、环境监管强度高的企业以及干湿气候区更为显著。(4)空间溢出效应检验表明,政府气候风险认知每增加 1%,邻近地区的能源消耗就会减少 7.5%,说明政府气候风险认知不仅会影响当地的能源消耗,还会影响邻近地区的能源消耗。最后,本研究提出了一些政策建议,以帮助政府应对气候变化风险,促进全球能源转型,实现可持续发展目标。
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引用次数: 0
Key strategies for achieving net-zero carbon buildings and promoting carbon credits in construction markets: A case of an emerging economy 实现净零碳建筑和促进建筑市场碳信用的关键战略:一个新兴经济体的案例
IF 5.5 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101488
Nguyen Van Tam, Nguyen Quoc Toan, Pham Hong Ngoc

While achieving net-zero carbon buildings (NZCBs) offers significant environmental and economic benefits, particularly in developing economies, research on effective strategies and their interplay with carbon credit systems remains limited. This knowledge gap hinders the widespread adoption of sustainable construction practices and the full potential of carbon markets for incentivizing change. This study aims to bridge this gap by investigating and assessing 15 key strategies for achieving NZCBs and promoting carbon credit implementation. Data from 109 construction professionals in Vietnam was analyzed using several statistical techniques. The results of one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey's post-hoc analysis showed no significant differences in the key strategies for promoting carbon credits among key stakeholders (policymakers, contractors, suppliers, and architects/designers). However, distinct variations were identified in the strategies for achieving NZCBs. Furthermore, the findings revealed that the top-priority strategies for NZCBs included: (1) raising awareness, (2) developing project-specific emission reduction roadmaps, and (3) increasing renewable energy utilization. For promoting carbon credits, the prioritized strategies involved: (1) tax reduction, (2) integrating emission reduction criteria into tender documents, and (3) awarding technical points to contractors with emission reduction solutions. Theoretically, this study breaks new ground by simultaneously examining key strategies for achieving NZCBs and carbon credits implementation within the specific context of an emerging economy. Practically, this paper offers valuable recommendations for Vietnamese policymakers and industry leaders, enabling them to navigate a roadmap for a greener and more sustainable built environment, not just in Vietnam but also in other emerging economies facing similar challenges.

虽然实现净零碳建筑(NZCBs)具有显著的环境和经济效益,尤其是在发展中经济体,但有关有效战略及其与碳信用体系之间相互作用的研究仍然有限。这一知识空白阻碍了可持续建筑实践的广泛采用,也无法充分发挥碳市场在激励变革方面的潜力。本研究旨在通过调查和评估实现 NZCBs 和促进碳信用实施的 15 项关键战略来弥补这一差距。研究采用多种统计技术对来自越南 109 名建筑专业人士的数据进行了分析。单因子方差分析(ANOVA)和Tukey事后分析的结果表明,主要利益相关者(政策制定者、承包商、供应商和建筑师/设计师)在推广碳信用额度的关键策略方面没有明显差异。然而,在实现 NZCBs 的战略方面却发现了明显的差异。此外,研究结果表明,实现 NZCBs 的最优先战略包括(1) 提高认识,(2) 制定针对具体项目的减排路线图,(3) 提高可再生能源利用率。在推广碳信用额度方面,优先策略包括:(1)减税,(2)将减排标准纳入招标文件,(3)对提供减排方案的承包商给予技术加分。从理论上讲,本研究在新兴经济体的特定背景下,同时研究了实现 NZCB 和碳信用额实施的关键战略,开辟了新的领域。在实践中,本文为越南的政策制定者和行业领导者提供了宝贵的建议,使他们不仅能在越南,而且能在面临类似挑战的其他新兴经济体中,为更环保、更可持续的建筑环境绘制路线图。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding the e-cooking experience from the perspective of the everyday cook in Nakuru, Kenya 从肯尼亚纳库鲁日常烹饪者的角度了解电子烹饪体验
IF 5.5 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101484
Marianna Coulentianos , Anastacia Kamau , Jon Leary , Stuart Cockbill , Val Mitchell

Transitioning to electric cooking in East Africa offers established health benefits and promising economic, time-saving, and environmental advantages for everyday cooks. Furthermore, battery-supported e-cooking systems can facilitate earlier adoption in regions with unreliable grid quality. However, successful adoption necessitates understanding of how the needs and behaviors of everyday cooks can be effectively translated into e-cooking practices. This nine-month study engaged 20 participants from Nakuru, Kenya, observing their transition to e-cooking with battery supported appliances. Qualitative methods were used to understand changes in cooking practices. The findings comprehensively analyze participants' preferences and concerns about traditional cooking and e-cooking and summarize the cooking experiences in journey maps. The study addresses the benefits, challenges, and unresolved issues of transitioning to e-cooking, including time savings, appropriateness of e-appliances, cost implications, and gender roles. The study raises questions about appliance design, fuel stacking and the co-benefits of biomass cooking. It highlights the importance of addressing safety concerns and providing training on electricity usage alongside e-cooking adoption. The economic benefits, particularly when systems include battery storage, remain uncertain due to potential appliance inefficiencies and behaviour changes that can impact energy consumption, undermining anticipated benefits. These findings inform avenues for comprehensive e-cooking services that support the transition to e-cooking.

在东非过渡到电烹饪可为日常烹饪带来公认的健康益处以及经济、省时和环保优势。此外,在电网质量不可靠的地区,由电池支持的电子烹饪系统可以促进更早采用。然而,要想成功应用,就必须了解如何将日常烹饪者的需求和行为有效地转化为电子烹饪实践。这项为期九个月的研究让肯尼亚纳库鲁的 20 名参与者参与其中,观察他们向使用电池支持的电器进行电子烹饪的转变。研究采用定性方法来了解烹饪实践的变化。研究结果全面分析了参与者对传统烹饪和电子烹饪的偏好和担忧,并通过旅程图总结了烹饪经验。研究探讨了过渡到电子烹饪的益处、挑战和尚未解决的问题,包括节省时间、电子设备的适宜性、成本影响和性别角色。该研究提出了有关器具设计、燃料堆叠和生物质烹饪的共同效益等问题。它强调了在采用电子烹饪的同时解决安全问题和提供用电培训的重要性。由于潜在的设备低效和行为改变会影响能源消耗,从而削弱预期效益,因此经济效益(尤其是当系统包括电池存储时)仍不确定。这些发现为支持向电子烹饪过渡的全面电子烹饪服务提供了参考。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of a clean cooking fuel distribution scheme in rural households of India – “Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY)” 印度农村家庭清洁烹饪燃料分配计划评估--"Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY)
IF 5.5 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101492
Veerendra Sahu , Sachchida Nand Tripathi , Ronak Sutaria , Neha Dumka , Atul Kotwal , Kunal Ghosh , Ritesh Kumar Singh

This study assessed the health benefits and change in the quality of life of beneficiaries of the flagship scheme of the government of India for clean cooking fuel, known as Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY). A large-scale survey consisting of 69 questions was carried out in six states of India. Indoor PM2.5 concentrations were also monitored using low-cost sensor devices. Of 2366 surveyed households, >40 % of the LPG users have reported significant (p < 0.05) improvement in the general health of the primary cooking person. Around 55 % of the surveyed LPG users have reported fewer episodes of respiratory illnesses in themselves and their family members post-LPG (PMUY) connections. The respondents from Rajasthan, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh show a strong signal for improvement in their overall health using LPG. The study also quantified the challenges encountered in continuing LPG refilling. Over 38 % of the LPG users had refilled their cylinders only 0–2 times in the preceding six months. Around 47 % of LPG users have reported refilling cost as a limiting factor for cylinder refilling. The high PMUY connection villages' indoor environments have 10 to 20 % less average concentration of PM2.5 than the low connection villages. The study findings will help the government better implement and assess the expected PMUY paybacks regarding beneficiaries' health and quality of life.

这项研究评估了印度政府清洁烹饪燃料旗舰计划(Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana,简称 PMUY)受益人的健康益处和生活质量变化。在印度的六个邦开展了一项包括 69 个问题的大规模调查。此外,还使用低成本传感器设备对室内 PM2.5 浓度进行了监测。在接受调查的 2366 户家庭中,40% 的液化石油气用户表示主要烹饪者的总体健康状况有明显改善(p <0.05)。在接受调查的液化石油气用户中,约有 55% 的人表示,在接通液化石油气("改善家庭健康计划")后,自己和家人患呼吸道疾病的次数减少了。来自拉贾斯坦邦、比哈尔邦和北方邦的受访者表示,使用液化石油气后,他们的总体健康状况有了明显改善。研究还量化了在继续加注液化石油气过程中遇到的挑战。超过 38% 的液化石油气用户在过去 6 个月中只加气 0-2 次。约 47% 的液化石油气用户表示,加气费用是限制气瓶加气的因素。PMUY接通率高的村庄的室内环境中PM2.5的平均浓度比接通率低的村庄低10%到20%。研究结果将有助于政府更好地实施和评估 "预防性普及计划 "在受益人健康和生活质量方面的预期回报。
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引用次数: 0
Sustaining clean cooking: A system dynamics study of Ghana's rural LPG promotion program 持续清洁烹饪:加纳农村液化石油气推广计划的系统动力学研究
IF 5.5 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101497
Martha M. McAlister , James R. Mihelcic , Amy L. Stuart , Qiong Zhang

Household air pollution is a pervasive environmental health problem wherever access to cleaner fuels is poor. Despite numerous attempts to transition households away from polluting fuels, interventions are rarely sustainable. This intractability indicates that structural (i.e., systemic) dynamics act to maintain the status quo. In this case study of Ghana's Rural Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Promotion Program, our objectives were to 1) identify system structures affecting sustained fuel use, and 2) test strategies for improving intervention outcomes. To address these objectives, we applied a system dynamics approach, informed by a systematic literature review. A virtual simulation model was constructed to represent the implementation of the Rural LPG Program and its outcomes. By analyzing the model's structure and behavior, we proposed strategies that would improve the intervention's outcomes and tested the effectiveness of the strategies within the simulation model. Our results show that distributing two LPG cylinders to households (instead of one) contributed toward primary use of the fuel, whereas free weekly delivery of LPG (for up to four years) had limited long-term benefits and diminishing returns. Furthermore, reducing the time for users to perceive the benefits of cleaner fuels enhanced willingness-to-pay, and thereby helped to sustain higher rates of LPG use. This suggests that intervention planners should identify new users' expectations of benefits and proactively design ways to realize those benefits quickly (in a few weeks or less), while policy makers should support this as a design requirement in approval processes.

在清洁燃料匮乏的地方,家庭空气污染是一个普遍存在的环境健康问题。尽管人们多次尝试让家庭摆脱污染燃料,但干预措施很少能够持续。这种棘手性表明,结构性(即系统性)动态因素在起作用,以维持现状。在对加纳农村液化石油气(LPG)推广计划的案例研究中,我们的目标是:1)确定影响燃料持续使用的系统结构;2)测试改善干预结果的策略。为了实现这些目标,我们在系统性文献回顾的基础上,采用了系统动力学方法。我们构建了一个虚拟仿真模型,以表示农村液化石油气计划的实施情况及其结果。通过分析模型的结构和行为,我们提出了改善干预结果的策略,并在模拟模型中测试了这些策略的有效性。我们的结果表明,向家庭发放两个液化石油气瓶(而不是一个)有助于燃料的主要使用,而每周免费提供液化石油气(长达四年)的长期效益有限且收益递减。此外,缩短用户感知清洁燃料益处的时间也提高了支付意愿,从而有助于维持较高的液化石油气使用率。这表明,干预规划者应确定新用户对收益的预期,并积极设计快速(在几周或更短时间内)实现这些收益的方法,而政策制定者应支持将此作为审批过程中的一项设计要求。
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Energy for Sustainable Development
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