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Generalization Bounds in the Predict-Then-Optimize Framework 预测-优化框架中的泛化界限
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2022.1330
Othman El Balghiti, Adam N. Elmachtoub, Paul Grigas, Ambuj Tewari
The predict-then-optimize framework is fundamental in many practical settings: predict the unknown parameters of an optimization problem and then solve the problem using the predicted values of the parameters. A natural loss function in this environment is to consider the cost of the decisions induced by the predicted parameters in contrast to the prediction error of the parameters. This loss function is referred to as the smart predict-then-optimize (SPO) loss. In this work, we seek to provide bounds on how well the performance of a prediction model fit on training data generalizes out of sample in the context of the SPO loss. Because the SPO loss is nonconvex and non-Lipschitz, standard results for deriving generalization bounds do not apply. We first derive bounds based on the Natarajan dimension that, in the case of a polyhedral feasible region, scale at most logarithmically in the number of extreme points but, in the case of a general convex feasible region, have linear dependence on the decision dimension. By exploiting the structure of the SPO loss function and a key property of the feasible region, which we denote as the strength property, we can dramatically improve the dependence on the decision and feature dimensions. Our approach and analysis rely on placing a margin around problematic predictions that do not yield unique optimal solutions and then providing generalization bounds in the context of a modified margin SPO loss function that is Lipschitz continuous. Finally, we characterize the strength property and show that the modified SPO loss can be computed efficiently for both strongly convex bodies and polytopes with an explicit extreme point representation.Funding: O. El Balghiti thanks Rayens Capital for their support. A. N. Elmachtoub acknowledges the support of the National Science Foundation (NSF) [Grant CMMI-1763000]. P. Grigas acknowledges the support of NSF [Grants CCF-1755705 and CMMI-1762744]. A. Tewari acknowledges the support of the NSF [CAREER grant IIS-1452099] and a Sloan Research Fellowship.
预测-优化框架在许多实际环境中都非常重要:预测优化问题的未知参数,然后使用参数的预测值解决问题。在这种环境下,一个自然的损失函数就是考虑预测参数所引起的决策成本与参数预测误差的对比。这种损失函数被称为智能预测-优化(SPO)损失。在这项工作中,我们试图在 SPO 损失的背景下,为预测模型在训练数据上的拟合性能在样本外的泛化程度提供约束。由于 SPO 损失是非凸和非 Lipschitz 的,因此推导泛化边界的标准结果并不适用。我们首先推导出基于 Natarajan 维度的边界,在多面体可行区域的情况下,边界最多与极值点的数量成对数关系,但在一般凸形可行区域的情况下,边界与决策维度成线性关系。通过利用 SPO 损失函数的结构和可行区域的一个关键属性(我们称之为强度属性),我们可以显著改善对决策维度和特征维度的依赖性。我们的方法和分析依赖于在不产生唯一最优解的问题预测周围设置一个边际,然后在修改边际 SPO 损失函数的背景下提供泛化边界,该函数是立普齐兹连续的。最后,我们描述了强度特性,并证明对于强凸体和具有明确极值点表示的多边形,都能有效计算修正的 SPO 损失:O. El Balghiti 感谢 Rayens Capital 的支持。A. N. Elmachtoub 感谢美国国家科学基金会 (NSF) [CMMI-1763000] 的支持。P. Grigas 感谢美国国家科学基金会 [CCF-1755705 和 CMMI-1762744] 的支持。A. Tewari 感谢美国国家科学基金会 [CAREER grant IIS-1452099] 和斯隆研究奖学金的资助。
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引用次数: 0
Flow Allocation Games 流量分配游戏
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2022.0355
Nils Bertschinger, Martin Hoefer, Daniel Schmand
We study a game-theoretic variant of the maximum circulation problem. In a flow allocation game, we are given a directed flow network. Each node is a rational agent and can strategically allocate any incoming flow to the outgoing edges. Given the strategy choices of all agents, a maximal circulation that adheres to the chosen allocation strategies evolves in the network. Each agent wants to maximize the amount of flow through his or her node. Flow allocation games can be used to express strategic incentives of clearing in financial networks. We provide a cumulative set of results on the existence and computational complexity of pure Nash and strong equilibria as well as tight bounds on the (strong) prices of anarchy and stability. Our results show an interesting dichotomy. Ranking strategies over individual flow units allows us to obtain optimal strong equilibria for many objective functions. In contrast, more intuitive ranking strategies over edges can give rise to unfavorable incentive properties.Funding: This work was supported by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Research Group ADYN [411362735].
我们研究的是最大流通问题的博弈论变体。在流量分配博弈中,我们给定了一个有向流量网络。每个节点都是理性的代理,可以有策略地将任何流入的流量分配给流出的边。考虑到所有代理的策略选择,网络中会形成一个符合所选分配策略的最大流通量。每个代理都希望最大化通过其节点的流量。流量分配博弈可用于表达金融网络中的清算策略激励。我们就纯纳什均衡和强均衡的存在性和计算复杂性以及无政府状态和稳定性的(强)价格提供了一系列累积结果。我们的结果显示了一个有趣的二分法。通过对单个流量单位进行排序,我们可以获得许多目标函数的最优强均衡。相比之下,更直观的边缘排序策略可能会产生不利的激励特性:本研究得到了德国科学基金会 ADYN 研究小组 [411362735] 的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Towards Optimal Problem Dependent Generalization Error Bounds in Statistical Learning Theory 在统计学习理论中实现与问题相关的最优泛化误差界限
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-01-19 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2021.0076
Yunbei Xu, Assaf Zeevi
We study problem-dependent rates, that is, generalization errors that scale near-optimally with the variance, effective loss, or gradient norms evaluated at the “best hypothesis.” We introduce a principled framework dubbed “uniform localized convergence” and characterize sharp problem-dependent rates for central statistical learning problems. From a methodological viewpoint, our framework resolves several fundamental limitations of existing uniform convergence and localization analysis approaches. It also provides improvements and some level of unification in the study of localized complexities, one-sided uniform inequalities, and sample-based iterative algorithms. In the so-called “slow rate” regime, we provide the first (moment-penalized) estimator that achieves the optimal variance-dependent rate for general “rich” classes; we also establish an improved loss-dependent rate for standard empirical risk minimization. In the “fast rate” regime, we establish finite-sample, problem-dependent bounds that are comparable to precise asymptotics. In addition, we show that iterative algorithms such as gradient descent and first order expectation maximization can achieve optimal generalization error in several representative problems across the areas of nonconvex learning, stochastic optimization, and learning with missing data.Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2021.0076 .
我们研究的是与问题相关的收敛率,即与 "最佳假设 "评估的方差、有效损失或梯度规范近乎最佳地扩展的泛化误差。我们引入了一个被称为 "均匀局部收敛 "的原则性框架,并描述了中心统计学习问题的尖锐问题依赖率。从方法论的角度来看,我们的框架解决了现有均匀收敛和局部化分析方法的几个基本局限。它还在研究局部复杂性、单边均匀不等式和基于样本的迭代算法方面提供了改进和某种程度的统一。在所谓的 "慢速率 "机制中,我们提供了第一个(矩惩罚)估计器,它能实现一般 "富 "类的最优方差相关速率;我们还为标准经验风险最小化建立了改进的损失相关速率。在 "快速率 "机制中,我们建立了与问题相关的有限样本界限,这些界限可与精确渐近线相媲美。此外,我们还展示了梯度下降和一阶期望最大化等迭代算法可以在非凸学习、随机优化和缺失数据学习等领域的几个代表性问题中实现最优泛化误差:在线附录见 https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2021.0076 。
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引用次数: 0
The Online Saddle Point Problem and Online Convex Optimization with Knapsacks 带包的在线鞍点问题和在线凸优化
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-01-12 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2018.0330
Adrian Rivera Cardoso, He Wang, Huan Xu
We study the online saddle point problem, an online learning problem where at each iteration, a pair of actions needs to be chosen without knowledge of the current and future (convex-concave) payoff functions. The objective is to minimize the gap between the cumulative payoffs and the saddle point value of the aggregate payoff function, which we measure using a metric called saddle point regret (SP-Regret). The problem generalizes the online convex optimization framework, but here, we must ensure that both players incur cumulative payoffs close to that of the Nash equilibrium of the sum of the games. We propose an algorithm that achieves SP-Regret proportional to [Formula: see text] in the general case, and [Formula: see text] SP-Regret for the strongly convex-concave case. We also consider the special case where the payoff functions are bilinear and the decision sets are the probability simplex. In this setting, we are able to design algorithms that reduce the bounds on SP-Regret from a linear dependence in the dimension of the problem to a logarithmic one. We also study the problem under bandit feedback and provide an algorithm that achieves sublinear SP-Regret. We then consider an online convex optimization with knapsacks problem motivated by a wide variety of applications, such as dynamic pricing, auctions, and crowdsourcing. We relate this problem to the online saddle point problem and establish [Formula: see text] regret using a primal-dual algorithm.
我们研究的是在线鞍点问题,这是一个在线学习问题,在每次迭代时,需要在不知道当前和未来(凸-凹)报酬函数的情况下选择一对行动。我们的目标是最大限度地缩小累积回报与总回报函数鞍点值之间的差距,我们使用一种称为鞍点遗憾(SP-Regret)的指标来衡量这一差距。这个问题概括了在线凸优化框架,但在这里,我们必须确保两个博弈者的累计报酬都接近博弈总和的纳什均衡。我们提出了一种算法,在一般情况下,它能达到与[公式:见正文]成比例的 SP-Regret,在强凸-凹情况下,能达到与[公式:见正文]成比例的 SP-Regret。我们还考虑了报酬函数为双线性且决策集为概率单纯形的特殊情况。在这种情况下,我们能够设计算法,将 SP-Regret 的约束条件从问题维度的线性相关降低到对数相关。我们还研究了强盗反馈下的问题,并提供了一种实现亚线性 SP-Regret 的算法。然后,我们考虑了一个在线凸优化与背包问题,该问题受到动态定价、拍卖和众包等广泛应用的启发。我们将这一问题与在线鞍点问题联系起来,并使用一种基元-二元算法建立了[公式:见正文]遗憾。
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引用次数: 0
Strategy-Proof Multidimensional Mechanism Design 策略可靠的多维机制设计
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2022.0324
Ranojoy Basu, Conan Mukherjee
We consider direct mechanisms to sell heterogeneous objects when buyers have private additive valuations and nonunit demand. We completely characterize the class of strategy-proof and agent sovereign mechanisms that satisfy a local side-flatness condition. Further, we introduce a notion of “continuity up to utility” and show that any such mechanism allocating all objects at all profiles is continuous and anonymous only if it is efficient. We find that the only mechanism satisfying these properties is equivalent to operating simultaneous second-price auctions for each object—as was done by the New Zealand government in allocating license rights to the use of radio spectrum in 1990. Finally, we present a complete characterization of simultaneous second-price auctions with object-specific reserve prices in terms of these properties and a weak nonbossiness restriction.
我们考虑的是当买方具有私人加法估值和非单位需求时出售异质物品的直接机制。我们完整地描述了一类满足局部侧平坦条件的无策略和代理主权机制。此外,我们还引入了 "效用连续性 "的概念,并证明了在所有情况下分配所有物品的任何此类机制都是连续的,而且只有在它是有效的情况下才是匿名的。我们发现,满足这些特性的唯一机制等同于对每个对象同时进行二次价格拍卖--1990 年新西兰政府在分配无线电频谱使用许可权时就是这样做的。最后,我们根据这些特性和弱非老板限制,提出了具有特定对象底价的同步二次价格拍卖的完整特征。
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引用次数: 0
The Privacy Paradox and Optimal Bias–Variance Trade-offs in Data Acquisition 数据采集中的隐私悖论与偏差-方差的最佳权衡
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-01-09 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2023.0022
Guocheng Liao, Yu Su, Juba Ziani, Adam Wierman, Jianwei Huang
Whereas users claim to be concerned about privacy, often they do little to protect their privacy in their online actions. One prominent explanation for this privacy paradox is that, when an individual shares data, it is not just the individual’s privacy that is compromised; the privacy of other individuals with correlated data is also compromised. This information leakage encourages oversharing of data and significantly impacts the incentives of individuals in online platforms. In this paper, we study the design of mechanisms for data acquisition in settings with information leakage and verifiable data. We design an incentive-compatible mechanism that optimizes the worst case trade-off between bias and variance of the estimation subject to a budget constraint, with which the worst case is over the unknown correlation between costs and data. Additionally, we characterize the structure of the optimal mechanism in closed form and study monotonicity and nonmonotonicity properties of the marketplace.Funding: This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 62202512 and 62271434], Shenzhen Science and Technology Program [Grant JCYJ20210324120011032], Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation [Grant 2021B1515120008], Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Crowd Intelligence Empowered Low-Carbon Energy Network [Grant ZDSYS20220606100601002], and the Shenzhen Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics for Society. This work is also supported by the National Science Foundation [Grants CNS-2146814, CPS-2136197, CNS-2106403, and NGSDI-2105648].Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2023.0022 .
虽然用户声称关注隐私,但他们在网上行为中往往很少保护自己的隐私。对这一隐私悖论的一个重要解释是,当个人分享数据时,不仅个人隐私会受到损害,与之相关数据的其他个人隐私也会受到损害。这种信息泄露会助长数据的过度共享,并严重影响个人在网络平台上的积极性。在本文中,我们研究了在信息泄露和数据可验证的环境下数据获取机制的设计。我们设计了一种与激励相容的机制,在预算约束下优化估计偏差和方差之间的最坏情况权衡,其中最坏情况是成本和数据之间的未知相关性。此外,我们还以封闭形式描述了最优机制的结构,并研究了市场的单调性和非单调性:本研究得到了国家自然科学基金[62202512 和 62271434]、深圳市科技计划[JCYJ20210324120011032]、广东省基础与应用基础研究基金[2021B1515120008]、深圳市众智赋能低碳能源网络重点实验室[ZDSYS20220606100601002]和深圳市人工智能与机器人社会应用研究所的资助。本研究还得到了美国国家科学基金会(National Science Foundation)[资助号:CNS-2146814、CPS-2136197、CNS-2106403 和 NGSDI-2105648]的支持:在线附录见 https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2023.0022 。
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引用次数: 0
The Multi-Objective Polynomial Optimization 多目标多项式优化
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-01-04 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2023.0200
Jiawang Nie, Zi Yang
The multi-objective optimization is to optimize several objective functions over a common feasible set. Because the objectives usually do not share a common optimizer, people often consider (weakly) Pareto points. This paper studies multi-objective optimization problems that are given by polynomial functions. First, we study the geometry for (weakly) Pareto values and represent Pareto front as the boundary of a convex set. Linear scalarization problems (LSPs) and Chebyshev scalarization problems (CSPs) are typical approaches for getting (weakly) Pareto points. For LSPs, we show how to use tight relaxations to solve them and how to detect existence or nonexistence of proper weights. For CSPs, we show how to solve them by moment relaxations. Moreover, we show how to check whether a given point is a (weakly) Pareto point or not and how to detect existence or nonexistence of (weakly) Pareto points. We also study how to detect unboundedness of polynomial optimization, which is used to detect nonexistence of proper weights or (weakly) Pareto points.Funding: J. Nie is partially supported by the National Science Foundation [Grant DMS-2110780].
多目标优化是在一个共同的可行集合上优化多个目标函数。由于这些目标通常不共享一个共同的优化器,人们通常会考虑(弱)帕累托点。本文研究多项式函数给出的多目标优化问题。首先,我们研究了(弱)帕累托值的几何形状,并将帕累托前沿表示为凸集的边界。线性标量化问题(LSPs)和切比雪夫标量化问题(CSPs)是获得(弱)帕累托点的典型方法。对于线性标度化问题,我们展示了如何使用严格松弛来解决它们,以及如何检测适当权重的存在与否。对于 CSP,我们展示了如何通过矩松弛来求解。此外,我们还展示了如何检查给定点是否为(弱)帕累托点,以及如何检测(弱)帕累托点是否存在。我们还研究了如何检测多项式优化的无界性,它可用于检测适当权重或(弱)帕累托点的不存在:J. Nie 由美国国家科学基金会 [Grant DMS-2110780] 部分资助。
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引用次数: 0
Diffusion-Based Staffing for Multitasking Service Systems with Many Servers 多服务器多任务服务系统的基于扩散的人员配置
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2021.0051
Jaap Storm, Wouter Berkelmans, René Bekker
We consider a many-server queue in which each server can serve multiple customers in parallel. Such multitasking phenomena occur in various applications areas (e.g., in hospitals and contact centers), although the impact of the number of customers who are simultaneously served on system efficiency may vary. We establish diffusion limits of the queueing process under the quality-and-efficiency-driven scaling and for different policies of assigning customers to servers depending on the number of customers they serve. We show that for a broad class of routing policies, including routing to the least busy server, the same one-dimensional diffusion process is obtained in the heavy-traffic limit. In case of assignment to the most busy server, there is no state-space collapse, and the diffusion limit involves a custom regulator mapping. Moreover, we also show that assigning customers to the least (most) busy server is optimal when the cumulative service rate per server is concave (convex), motivating the routing policies considered. Finally, we also derive diffusion limits in the nonheavy-traffic scaling regime and in the heavy-traffic scaling regime where customers can be reassigned during service.Funding: The research of J. Storm is partly funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) Gravitation project Networks [Grant 024.002.003].
我们考虑的是一个多服务器队列,其中每个服务器可以并行为多个客户提供服务。这种多任务现象出现在各种应用领域(如医院和联络中心),尽管同时服务的客户数量对系统效率的影响可能各不相同。我们建立了在质量和效率驱动的扩展条件下,以及根据客户数量向服务器分配客户的不同策略下,排队过程的扩散极限。我们证明,对于包括路由到最不繁忙服务器在内的一大类路由策略,在大流量极限下会得到相同的一维扩散过程。在分配给最忙服务器的情况下,不存在状态空间坍塌,扩散极限涉及自定义调节器映射。此外,我们还证明,当每台服务器的累计服务速率为凹(凸)时,将客户分配到最不繁忙(最繁忙)的服务器是最优的,这也是所考虑的路由策略的动机。最后,我们还推导了非大流量扩展机制和大流量扩展机制下的扩散极限,在大流量扩展机制下,客户可以在服务期间重新分配:J. Storm 的研究部分由荷兰科学研究组织(NWO)引力项目网络[Grant 024.002.003]资助。
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引用次数: 0
Learning-Augmented Mechanism Design: Leveraging Predictions for Facility Location 学习增强机制设计:利用预测确定设施位置
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2023-12-27 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2022.0225
Priyank Agrawal, Eric Balkanski, Vasilis Gkatzelis, Tingting Ou, Xizhi Tan
In this work, we introduce an alternative model for the design and analysis of strategyproof mechanisms that is motivated by the recent surge of work in “learning-augmented algorithms.” Aiming to complement the traditional worst-case analysis approach in computer science, this line of work has focused on the design and analysis of algorithms that are enhanced with machine-learned predictions. The algorithms can use the predictions as a guide to inform their decisions, aiming to achieve much stronger performance guarantees when these predictions are accurate (consistency), while also maintaining near-optimal worst-case guarantees, even if these predictions are inaccurate (robustness). We initiate the design and analysis of strategyproof mechanisms that are augmented with predictions regarding the private information of the participating agents. To exhibit the important benefits of this approach, we revisit the canonical problem of facility location with strategic agents in the two-dimensional Euclidean space. We study both the egalitarian and utilitarian social cost functions, and we propose new strategyproof mechanisms that leverage predictions to guarantee an optimal trade-off between consistency and robustness. Furthermore, we also prove parameterized approximation results as a function of the prediction error, showing that our mechanisms perform well, even when the predictions are not fully accurate.Funding: The work of E. Balkanski was supported in part by the National Science Foundation [Grants CCF-2210501 and IIS-2147361]. The work of V. Gkatzelis and X. Tan was supported in part by the National Science Foundation [Grant CCF-2210502] and [CAREER Award CCF-2047907].Supplemental Material: The e-companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2022.0225 .
在这项工作中,我们介绍了一种设计和分析战略防御机制的替代模型,该模型的灵感来自于最近兴起的 "学习增强算法"。为了补充计算机科学中传统的最坏情况分析方法,这一研究方向侧重于设计和分析利用机器学习预测进行增强的算法。这些算法可以使用预测作为指导,为其决策提供信息,目的是在这些预测准确时实现更强的性能保证(一致性),同时即使这些预测不准确,也能保持接近最佳的最坏情况保证(鲁棒性)。我们开始设计和分析防策略机制,这些机制通过对参与代理的私人信息进行预测而得到增强。为了展示这种方法的重要优势,我们重新审视了二维欧几里得空间中具有战略代理人的典型设施位置问题。我们研究了平均主义和功利主义的社会成本函数,并提出了新的防策略机制,利用预测来保证一致性和稳健性之间的最佳权衡。此外,我们还证明了作为预测误差函数的参数化近似结果,表明即使预测不完全准确,我们的机制也能表现良好:E. Balkanski 的工作得到了美国国家科学基金会 [CCF-2210501 和 IIS-2147361] 的部分资助。V. Gkatzelis 和 X. Tan 的工作得到了美国国家科学基金会 [CCF-2210502] 和 [CAREER Award CCF-2047907] 的部分资助:电子版可在 https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2022.0225 上查阅。
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引用次数: 0
Limit Theorems for Default Contagion and Systemic Risk 违约传染和系统风险的极限定理
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2023-12-27 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2021.0283
Hamed Amini, Zhongyuan Cao, Agnès Sulem
We consider a general tractable model for default contagion and systemic risk in a heterogeneous financial network subjected to an exogenous macroeconomic shock. We show that under certain regularity assumptions, the default cascade model can be transformed into a death process problem represented by a balls-and-bins model. We state various limit theorems regarding the final size of default cascades. Under appropriate assumptions on the degree and threshold distributions, we prove that the final sizes of default cascades have asymptotically Gaussian fluctuations. We next state limit theorems for different system-wide wealth aggregation functions, which enable us to provide systemic risk measures in relation to the structure and heterogeneity of the financial network. Lastly, we demonstrate how these results can be utilized by a social planner to optimally target interventions during a financial crisis given a budget constraint and under partial information of the financial network.
我们考虑的是受外生宏观经济冲击的异质金融网络中违约蔓延和系统性风险的一般可控模型。我们的研究表明,在某些规则性假设下,违约级联模型可以转化为由球盆模型表示的死亡过程问题。我们提出了有关违约级联最终规模的各种极限定理。在适当的程度和阈值分布假设下,我们证明了违约级联的最终规模具有渐近高斯波动。接下来,我们为不同的全系统财富聚集函数提出了极限定理,这使我们能够提供与金融网络的结构和异质性相关的系统性风险度量。最后,我们展示了社会规划者如何利用这些结果,在预算约束和金融网络部分信息的情况下,在金融危机期间进行最优化的定向干预。
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引用次数: 0
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Mathematics of Operations Research
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