Background
Depressive disorders and asthma frequently co-occur in adolescence, but global co-patterning and shared population-level risk signals remain unclear.
Methods
Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 estimates for ages 10–19 years (1990–2021), we characterized global and China-specific trends and sex disparities in incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using joinpoint regression. We constructed a 2021 incidence-quartile co-occurrence typology, estimated typology-stratified coupling (Spearman rank correlation coefficient, ρ) using pooled country–year observations (1990/2000/2011/2021), prioritized shared summary exposure value (SEV) correlates using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP)-informed multiclass random forests and negative binomial models, and evaluated bidirectional genetic directionality using two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR).
Results
The burden of depressive disorders remained broadly stable but started to increase from 2019 onward, with persistent female excess. Asthma DALY rates declined overall, whereas incidence and prevalence were largely stable globally, with modest recent increases in North America. In 2021, typology membership showed marked income gradients and positive within-typology coupling (ρ = 0.408–0.925). Ambient particulate matter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5) and household air pollution from solid fuels were consistently prioritized as shared ecological correlates and showed marked socioeconomic gradients. Two-sample MR supported a modest depressive disorders-to-asthma signal (inverse-variance weighted (IVW) odds ratio (OR) = 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.36), whereas reverse-direction estimates were weaker and more heterogeneous.
Conclusions
Adolescent depressive disorders and asthma exhibit divergent long-term trajectories but cluster into income-patterned co-occurrence typologies with shared ecological risk signals. These findings reflect population-level correlates and do not directly estimate intervention or policy effects.
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