Cross-laminated timber (CLT) is a promising sustainable building material for temporary and permanent military applications. Experimental research in the past decade informed design guidance for CLT components against blast loading and forced entry, but formal guidance for CLT systems under ballistic impact is not currently available partly due to inherent uncertainties affecting localized resistance. In this article, we investigate the impact of quasi-static wood material property variability on partial penetration ballistic resistance uncertainty by conducting 61 total ballistic impact experiments on an untested prominent structural species, Douglas Fir (DF). With the DF experimental results in combination with a leveraged CLT ballistic and material property database, we predict and characterize the ballistic resistance of any CLT panel using a defined single penetration depth equation and the computationally inexpensive reliability-based First-Order Second-Moment (FOSM) method. We use this approach to characterize and capture the inherent variability of CLT under ballistic impact, and represent resistance profiles as probabilistic distributions rather than single values. We apply the predictive method at different scales, from DF panel-specific single velocity estimates to full species partial penetration profiles. For each data grouping, the FOSM prediction fully captured within 95% confidence intervals the experimental dataset. Needing only two easily obtained wood material properties, the method provides accurate and robust predictions of the resistance of this variable material under dynamic localized loading. As a result, we argue predicted baseline resistance profiles considering inherent material variability can act as the informed starting point for decision makers to apply situation dependent design safety factors.
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