Rising incidence of train derailments and collisions underscores the urgent need for more effective passive energy‐absorbing systems. While conventional aluminum honeycomb devices achieve high specific energy absorption, they suffer from complex fabrication, require full replacement after minor impacts, and generate high rebound velocities that can exacerbate secondary damage. In this study, we propose a Multi-layered Nested Tubular Structure (MNTS)—an arrangement of adjustable square and circular thin-walled tubes—as an alternative absorber. A physics–based finite‐element (FE) model, incorporating material nonlinearity, simulates a lead‐car collision against a rigid wall and is validated against full-scale experiments (velocity: 8.357 m/s; mass: 54 t). The model accurately reproduces peak absorbed energy, average force response, displacement history, and rebound velocity. A parametric study of 144 FE simulations combined with response surface methodology identifies optimal wall‐thickness parameters (λs = 7.4 mm, λc = 18.6 mm), yielding a maximum energy absorption of 1.728 MJ (RMSE = 0.0477 MJ, R² = 0.945). Building on these results, we develop a reduced‐order analytical model using logistic regression to relate train speed (5.0–9.0 m/s) to peak force, maximum displacement, and energy absorption, achieving an R² of 0.989 for displacement predictions. Validation against 41 additional FE runs confirms the analytical model’s accuracy while reducing computational cost by orders of magnitude. Compared with honeycomb absorbers, the MNTS matches energy-absorption efficiency yet significantly lowers peak impact forces and rebound velocities, thereby enhancing passenger safety. Together, the validated FE framework and its streamlined analytical counterpart constitute a rapid, practical design and assessment tool for train collision energy-absorption systems.
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