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Corrigendum to “Field study of local scour around bridge foundations on silty seabed under irregular tidal flow” [Coast. Eng. 185 (October 2023), 104382] 对 "不规则潮汐流下淤泥质海床桥梁地基周围局部冲刷的实地研究 "的更正 [Coast. Eng. 185 (October 2023), 104382]
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104597
Zhiyong Zhang , Shengtao Du , Yakun Guo , Yuanping Yang , Jian Zeng , Titi Sui , Ronghao Wei , Zuisen Li
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引用次数: 0
Experimental study on local scour for large-diameter mono-column composite bucket foundation for offshore wind turbines 海上风力涡轮机大直径单柱复合斗式基础局部冲刷试验研究
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104598
Yuhang Zhang , Jinfeng Zhang , Zhengqi Li , Tongqing Chen , Qinghe Zhang , Jiandong Xiao

The issue of seabed scour around offshore wind turbine foundations is a significant safety concern. In this study, local scour around a specific type of foundation, known as the large-diameter Mono-Column Composite Bucket Foundation (MCCBF) with six connectors, has been investigated through physical experiments. The study involved various flow conditions, including unidirectional flows, tidal flows, and combinations of regular waves and currents. It has been found that under similar flow intensity and orientation angles, unidirectional flow tends to cause deeper scour depths, but with a more limited extent compared to scour induced by tidal flows. The disparity in maximum scour depth between tidal and unidirectional flows decreases as flow velocity increases. Under regular wave-current interaction, both the scour depth and the scour extent are larger than those induced by unidirectional flow. The presence of lee-wake vortices and streamline contractions near the connectors results in larger scour depths on either side of the foundation, especially when the orientation angle is set to 0°. Different methods for predicting scour depth of the MCCBF were applied and discussed.

海上风力涡轮机基础周围的海床冲刷问题是一个重大的安全问题。在本研究中,我们通过物理实验研究了一种特定类型的地基(即带有六个连接器的大直径单柱复合斗式地基 (MCCBF))周围的局部冲刷。研究涉及各种流动条件,包括单向流、潮汐流以及规则波浪和水流的组合。研究发现,在相似的水流强度和方向角条件下,单向流往往会造成更深的冲刷深度,但与潮汐流造成的冲刷相比,单向流造成的冲刷深度更为有限。潮汐流和单向流的最大冲刷深度差异随着流速的增加而减小。在有规律的波流相互作用下,冲刷深度和冲刷范围都大于单向流引起的冲刷。在连接处附近存在的左摇涡流和流线收缩会导致地基两侧的冲刷深度增大,尤其是当定向角设置为 0°时。应用并讨论了预测 MCCBF 冲刷深度的不同方法。
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引用次数: 0
Data-driven modelling of coastal storm erosion for real-time forecasting at a wave-dominated embayed beach 以数据为驱动的沿海风暴侵蚀建模,用于在波浪为主的内滩进行实时预报
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104596
Raimundo Ibaceta , Mitchell D. Harley

Emergency managers have an increasing need for tools to enhance preparedness to extreme coastal storms and support disaster risk reduction measures. With the emergence of Early Warning Systems (EWSs) for coastal storm hazards, a fundamental challenge is the accurate prediction of sandy beach erosion at lead times of days to weeks corresponding to an approaching storm event. This work presents a data-driven modelling approach to predict storm-driven beach erosion (shoreline change) using a large dataset of 276 individual storm events at Narrabeen-Collaroy Beach, SE Australia. Correlation analysis between individual storm characteristics and shoreline response at three locations along the embayment with varying exposure to the prevailing waves indicates that cumulative storm wave energy is the dominant driver of storm erosion at this site. This is followed by the pre-storm beach width, storm wave direction and to a minimal extent, storm wave period and water levels. A multi-linear regression model of storm erosion is developed and found to accurately predict shoreline change due to individual storm events (RMSE = 3.7 m–6.4 m). This work highlights the value of high-frequency shoreline data for storm erosion forecasting and provides a framework for real-time forecasting applications.

应急管理人员越来越需要一些工具来加强对极端沿海风暴的防范,并支持减少灾害风 险的措施。随着沿海风暴灾害预警系统(EWS)的出现,一个基本挑战是如何在风暴来临前几天到几周内准确预测沙滩侵蚀情况。这项研究提出了一种数据驱动的建模方法,利用澳大利亚东南部 Narrabeen-Collaroy 海滩 276 个单独风暴事件的大型数据集,预测风暴驱动的海滩侵蚀(海岸线变化)。沿海湾的三个地点受盛行波浪的影响程度不同,单个风暴特征与海岸线响应之间的相关性分析表明,累积的风暴波浪能量是该地点风暴侵蚀的主要驱动因素。其次是暴风雨前的海滩宽度、暴风雨波浪方向,以及最小程度上的暴风雨波浪周期和水位。建立的风暴侵蚀多线性回归模型可准确预测单个风暴事件造成的海岸线变化(RMSE = 3.7 米-6.4 米)。这项工作凸显了高频海岸线数据在风暴侵蚀预报中的价值,并为实时预报应用提供了一个框架。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying topographic changes at the beach using multiple years of permanent laser scanning 利用多年永久激光扫描确定海滩地形变化
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104594
Mieke Kuschnerus , Sierd de Vries , José A.Á. Antolínez , Sander Vos , Roderik Lindenbergh

Sandy beach-dune systems make up a large part of coastal areas world wide. Their function as an eco-system as well as a protective barrier for human and natural habitat is under increased threat due to climate change. A thorough understanding of change processes at the sediment surface is essential to facilitate prediction of future development and management strategies to maintain their function. Especially slow and small scale processes happening over several days up to weeks at cm level, such as aeolian sand transport are difficult to identify and analyse. Permanent laser scanning (PLS) is a useful tool in the study and analysis of coastal processes as it captures a data representation of the evolution of the sediment surface over extended periods of time (up to several years) with high detail (at cm-dm level). The PLS data set considered for this study, consists of hourly acquired 3D point clouds representing the surface evolution of a section of the Dutch coast during three years. However, it is challenging to extract concrete information on specific change processes from the large and complex PLS data set. We use multiple hypothesis testing in order to reduce the PLS data set to a so-called inventory of trends, consisting of 12.8 million partial time series with associated rate of change and elevation. The inventory of trends proofs to be a suitable tool to identify natural processes such as storms and aeolian sand transport in our test area in the aeolian zone of a sandy beach-dune system on the Dutch coast. We identify these processes and provide a tool to derive summarising data from the complex PLS data set. We find that all partial time series identified as most likely representing aeolian sand transport, result in 1354 m3 of sand deposition in our study area over the course of three years. We also show a comparison with transects from JarKus data and find a correlation between anthropogenic activities and erosion in our test area with a correlation coefficient of 0.3.

沙质海滩-沙丘系统在全世界沿海地区占很大比重。由于气候变化,它们作为生态系统以及人类和自然栖息地保护屏障的功能正受到越来越大的威胁。全面了解沉积物表面的变化过程对于预测未来发展和制定管理策略以保持其功能至关重要。尤其是在厘米级发生的数天至数周的缓慢和小规模过程,如风沙搬运,很难识别和分析。永久激光扫描(PLS)是研究和分析沿岸过程的有用工具,因为它可以捕捉到沉积物表 面在较长时期内(长达数年)演变的数据,具有很高的精细度(厘米-分米级)。本研究考虑使用的 PLS 数据集包括每小时采集的三维点云,代表了荷兰海岸一段海域 3 年间的海面演变情况。然而,从庞大而复杂的 PLS 数据集中提取有关具体变化过程的具体信息是一项挑战。我们使用多重假设检验,将 PLS 数据集缩减为所谓的趋势清单,其中包括 1280 万个部分时间序列以及相关的变化率和海拔高度。事实证明,趋势清单是一种合适的工具,可用于识别荷兰海岸沙滩-沙丘系统风化区测试区域的风暴和风沙迁移等自然过程。我们确定了这些过程,并提供了一种工具,用于从复杂的 PLS 数据集中得出总结数据。我们发现,所有被确定为最有可能代表风沙搬运的局部时间序列,在我们的研究区域内,在三年的时间里共沉积了 1354 立方米的沙子。我们还展示了与 JarKus 数据横断面的对比,发现在我们的测试区域,人为活动与侵蚀之间存在相关性,相关系数为 0.3。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling the impact of sediment composition on long-term estuarine morphodynamics 模拟沉积物组成对河口长期形态动力学的影响
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104595
C.H. Jiang , Z. Zhou , I.H. Townend , L.C. Guo , Y.Z. Wei , F. Luo , C.K. Zhang

Sediment composition, characterized by different contents of cohesive and non-cohesive sediments, is known to play a role on long-term estuarine and deltaic morphodynamics, but the exact impact is poorly understood. We establish a two-dimensional morphodynamic model to investigate the influence of different sediment compositions on the development of a schematic fluvio-deltaic system driven by river and tides. Though excluding the density effects, results suggest that the model captures the development of distributary channels and elongated sand bars with resemblance to that in the Yangtze Estuary. Sensitivity simulations show fundamentally different channel-shoal patterns take shape under different sediment compositions. Ebb dominance and associated seaward sediment flushing lead to faster morphodynamic development and more prograded delta under larger river discharge and sediment supply. We detect a positive correlation between the content of cohesive sediment and the speed of development, particularly cohesive sediment content is <50%. However, when the proportion of mud is larger (i.e., 50–75%), a deceleration of the morphological development occurs after 200 years. A sand-dominated environment exhibits the largest channel numbers and fast channel formation near the mouth within the first 300 morphodynamic years. Spatial distribution of bottom sediments changes with morphology, exhibiting increasing mud deposits near the mouth, whilst the sand remains inside the estuary. This study indicates the importance and need for a more realistic representation of bed compositions in long-term estuarine morphodynamic simulations.

沉积物组成的特点是粘性沉积物和非粘性沉积物的含量不同,众所周知,沉积物组成对河口和三角洲的长期形态动力学有影响,但对其确切的影响却知之甚少。我们建立了一个二维形态动力学模型,以研究不同沉积物成分对由河流和潮汐驱动的示意性河口-三角洲系统发展的影响。虽然排除了密度效应,但结果表明该模型捕捉到了与长江口相似的分布河道和细长沙洲的发育过程。敏感性模拟结果表明,在不同的沉积物组成条件下,河道-沙洲模式会发生根本性的变化。在较大的河流流量和沉积物供应条件下,退潮主导和相关的向海沉积物冲刷导致形态动力发展更快,三角洲阶地更高。我们发现,粘性沉积物含量与发展速度之间存在正相关,尤其是粘性沉积物含量为 50%时。然而,当泥沙所占比例较大时(即 50-75%),200 年后形态发展速度会减慢。在以沙为主的环境中,河道数量最多,在最初的 300 个形态年中,河口附近的河道形成速度很快。底部沉积物的空间分布随着形态的变化而变化,在河口附近表现出越来越多的泥沙沉积,而河口内部则仍然是沙子。这项研究表明,在长期河口形态动力学模拟中更真实地反映河床组成是非常重要和必要的。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of beach nourishment in Mar del plata, Argentina: An application of the CoastSat toolkit 评估阿根廷马德普拉塔的海滩整治:海岸卫星工具包的应用
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104593
Carolina Billet , Guadalupe Alonso , Gabriel Danieli , Walter Dragani

Sandy coasts play a crucial role in various human activities and support the economies of many coastal states. Due to their importance, coastal erosion mitigation techniques are often implemented. Among these techniques, beach nourishment is considered an environmentally acceptable method for coastal protection and restoration. In this work, a methodology for the evaluation of such projects is proposed and applied to the biggest beach nourishment project in the city of Mar del Plata, Argentina. The nourishment was carried out between 1998 and 1999 in Playa Grande (PG), Varese (V) and Bristol (B) bays. The CoastSat toolkit was implemented to obtain shoreline positions from satellite imagery and to derive a 36-year monthly time series of beach width in the region. For the analysis, three distinctives time lapses are identified: pre-intervention, response, and new equilibrium. An exponential decay function was fitted to determine the response lapse and its characteristics. Metrics such as mean beach width and trends were computed and used to compare the condition of beaches before and after the project. Results show that the region experienced a net growth after nourishment, with beach width doubling in Bristol and Playa Grande, and increasing tenfold in Varase. Nourishment did not alter the erosive trends of Playa Grande and Bristol, nor the growth trend of Varese. Regarding renourishment planning, according to our findings, for Playa Grande and Bristol beaches to achieve a net growth of 1 m, it would require the deposition of 17 m³ of sediment per meter of coastline. This study highlights the suitability of the CoastSat toolkit for assessing the effectiveness of beach regeneration.

沙质海岸在人类的各种活动中发挥着至关重要的作用,并支撑着许多沿海国家的经济。由于其重要性,人们经常采用海岸侵蚀减缓技术。在这些技术中,海滩滋养被认为是一种环境可接受的海岸保护和恢复方法。在这项工作中,提出了一种评估此类项目的方法,并将其应用于阿根廷马德普拉塔市最 大的海滩加固项目。该工程于 1998 年至 1999 年在格兰德海滩(PG)、瓦雷斯海滩(V)和布里斯托尔海滩(B)进行。CoastSat 工具包用于从卫星图像中获取海岸线位置,并得出该地区海滩宽度的 36 年月度时间序列。为进行分析,确定了三个不同的时间段:干预前、响应和新平衡。通过拟合指数衰减函数来确定响应时间间隔及其特征。计算了平均海滩宽度和趋势等指标,并用于比较项目实施前后的海滩状况。结果表明,该地区的海滩宽度在工程结束后出现了净增长,布里斯托尔和普拉亚格兰德的海滩宽度增加了一倍,瓦拉塞的海滩宽度增加了十倍。海滩整修并没有改变普拉亚格兰德和布里斯托尔的侵蚀趋势,也没有改变瓦雷泽的增长趋势。根据我们的研究结果,格兰德海滩和布里斯托尔海滩若要实现 1 米的净增长,每米海岸线需要沉积 17 立方米的沉积物。这项研究强调了 CoastSat 工具包在评估海滩再生效果方面的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
Wave-driven current and vortex patterns at an open beach: Insights from phase-resolving numerical computations and Lagrangian measurements 开放海滩的波流和涡旋模式:相位解析数值计算和拉格朗日测量结果的启示
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104591
Andreas Bondehagen , Volker Roeber , Henrik Kalisch , Marc P. Buckley , Michael Streßer , Marius Cysewski , Jochen Horstmann , Maria Bjørnestad , Olufemi E. Ige , Hege G. Frøysa , Ruben Carrasco-Alvarez

Wave-driven currents have a substantial impact on local circulation patterns in and across the surf zone, and are responsible for cross-shore and longshore exchange of mass and momentum over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Nearshore currents may drive sediment transport, lead to beach erosion, and also affect the spread of bacteria and other marine microorganisms, as well as the distribution of pollutants such as chemicals and microplastics. In addition, surf zone currents can cause hazardous conditions for beach-goers in the form of rip currents.

It is known from previous work (Chen et al., 2003; Feddersen et al., 2011; Hally-Rosendahl and Feddersen, 2016) that Boussinesq-type models in combination with appropriate boundary conditions and wave breaking capabilities can function as powerful tools for the analysis of circulation patterns in the surf zone. In the present work, data from a recent field campaign reported on in Bjørnestad et al. (2021) are used to further validate the capability of Boussinesq systems to simulate nearshore dynamics.

The numerical model is then used to study the influence of tidal elevation, peak direction and directional spread of the incoming wavefield on the quantity, extent, and circulatory magnitude of the nearshore circulation. In addition, fundamental features such as horizontal eddies are investigated, and comparisons are made to solid-body rotation and irrotational vortices.

Overall, it is observed that local variations in the bathymetry across the surf zone are the controlling factor regarding the size of these circulations, and an increasing tidal level, which can be seen as a uniform offset to the bathymetry, favors the generation of larger vortex patterns. For a given tidal stage, the directional spread of the incoming wavefield has the most pronounced influence on the size and strength of the nearshore eddies while the peak direction has the strongest effect on the total number of circulations.

波浪驱动的海流对冲浪区内和冲浪区之间的局部环流模式有重大影响,并在广泛的时空尺度范围内负责质量和动量的跨岸和沿岸交换。近岸流可能会推动沉积物迁移,导致海滩侵蚀,也会影响细菌和其他海洋微生物的传播,以及化学品和微塑料等污染物的分布。此外,冲浪区海流还可能以撕裂流的形式对海滩游客造成危害。根据以往的研究(Chen 等人,2003 年;Feddersen 等人,2011 年;Hally-Rosendahl 和 Feddersen,2016 年)可知,布西内斯克(Boussinesq)型模型与适当的边界条件和破浪能力相结合,可作为分析冲浪区环流模式的有力工具。在本研究中,Bjørnestad 等人(2021 年)报告的近期实地考察数据被用来进一步验证布西内斯克系统模拟近岸动力学的能力,然后利用数值模型研究潮汐高程、入浪波场的峰值方向和方向扩散对近岸环流的数量、范围和环流幅度的影响。此外,还研究了水平涡流等基本特征,并与实体旋转和非旋转涡流进行了比较。总体而言,研究发现,冲浪区水深的局部变化是这些环流规模的控制因素,而潮位的增加(可视为水深的均匀偏移)有利于产生更大的涡流模式。在给定的潮汐阶段,入射波场的方向传播对近岸涡旋的大小和强度的影响最为明显,而波峰方向对涡旋总数的影响最大。
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引用次数: 0
Kinematics of nonlinear waves over variable bathymetry. Part I: Numerical modelling, verification and validation 多变水深上的非线性波运动学。第一部分:数值建模、验证和确认
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104577
Michel Benoit , Jie Zhang , Yuxiang Ma

Fluid particle kinematics due to wave motion (i.e. orbital velocities and accelerations) at and beneath the free surface is involved in many coastal and ocean engineering applications, e.g. estimation of wave-induced forces on structures, sediment transport, etc. This work presents the formulations of these kinematics fields within a fully nonlinear potential flow (FNPF) approach. In this model, the velocity potential is approximated with a high-order polynomial expansion over the water column using an orthogonal basis of Chebyshev polynomials of the first kind. Using the same basis, original analytical expressions of the components of velocity and acceleration are derived in this work. The estimation of particle accelerations in the course of the simulation involves the time derivatives of the decomposition coefficients, which are computed with a high-order backward finite-difference scheme in time. The capability of the numerical model in computing the particle kinematics is first validated for regular nonlinear waves propagating over a flat bottom. The model is shown to be able to predict both the velocity and acceleration of highly nonlinear and nearly breaking waves with negligible error compared to the corresponding stream function wave solution. Then, for regular waves propagating over an uneven bottom (bar-type bottom profile), the simulated results are confronted with existing experimental data, and very good agreement is achieved up to the sixth-order harmonics for free surface elevation, velocity and acceleration.

波浪运动(即轨道速度和加速度)在自由表面上和自由表面下引起的流体质点运动 学,涉及许多沿岸和海洋工程应用,如估算波浪对结构的作用力、沉积物输运等。本研究采用全非线性势流(FNPF)方法对这些运动学场进行了计算。在该模型中,使用切比雪夫多项式第一类的正交基础,在水体上用高阶多项式展开来近似速度势。利用同一基础,本研究得出了速度和加速度分量的原始分析表达式。在模拟过程中,粒子加速度的估算涉及分解系数的时间导数,而时间导数是通过高阶后向有限差分方案计算得出的。数值模型计算粒子运动学的能力首先针对在平底上传播的规则非线性波进行了验证。结果表明,该模型能够预测高度非线性波和近似断裂波的速度和加速度,与相应的流函数波解法相比,误差可以忽略不计。然后,对于在不平整底部(条形底部剖面)上传播的规则波,将模拟结果与现有实验数据进行对比,结果表明,在自由表面高程、速度和加速度的六阶谐波范围内,两者的一致性非常好。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental and numerical investigations of extreme wave impacting on a suspended structure 极端波浪冲击悬挂结构的实验和数值研究
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104592
Di Mu , Dezhi Ning , Lifen Chen

Nonlinear interactions between an extreme wave and a cylindrical structure with its bottom being elevated above the still mean water level are investigated by a set of physical experiments, complemented by advanced CFD-type numerical simulations. The extreme wave is modelled as a solitary wave, which is widely applied as a simple model for tsunamis. Three horizontal (namely forward impacting, backward impacting and cyclic forces) and three vertical (namely uplifting, suction, and slamming forces) force modes are identified. The forward impacting force results from the wave crest impacting on the cylinder front face directly, and its force peak is found to have a quadratic relationship with the velocity of incoming water particle. The slamming force is however caused by the wave hitting on the cylinder bottom from beneath, and other modes are associated with the complex fluid behaviors around the cylinder, e.g. reverse flow and violent surface transformation. In addition, the effects of cylinder clearance (the vertical distance between the cylinder bottom and the mean water level), and the inclined angle are investigated in-depth. It is found that these two play significant roles in the slamming force mode. The former determines the total water momentum that is transferable, and the latter tells how much of this total transferable water momentum could effectively be transferred to the slamming force eventually. A planar collision occurs when the inclined angle is equal or close to the localized slope angle of the undisturbed wave surface, resulting in the largest momentum transfer, and in turn, the largest slamming force for a given cylinder clearance.

通过一系列物理实验,并辅以先进的 CFD 型数值模拟,研究了极值波与底部高于静止平均水位的圆柱形结构之间的非线性相互作用。极值波被模拟为孤波,孤波作为海啸的简单模型被广泛应用。确定了三种水平力模式(即前向冲击力、后向冲击力和周期力)和三种垂直力模式(即上浮力、吸力和撞击力)。前向冲击力是由波峰直接冲击圆筒前端面产生的,其力峰与进入的水粒子速度呈二次关系。其他模式则与圆筒周围复杂的流体行为有关,如反向流动和剧烈的表面变化。此外,还深入研究了圆筒间隙(圆筒底部与平均水位之间的垂直距离)和倾斜角的影响。研究发现,这两者在撞击力模式中起着重要作用。前者决定了可传递的总水流动量,而后者则告诉人们这些可传递的总水流动量中有多少能最终有效地传递给撞击力。当倾斜角等于或接近未扰动波面的局部倾斜角时,就会发生平面碰撞,从而产生最大的动量转移,进而在给定的圆筒间隙内产生最大的坍塌力。
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引用次数: 0
Skill assessment of a total water level and coastal change forecast during the landfall of a hurricane 飓风登陆时总水位和沿岸变化预报的技能评估
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104590
Justin J. Birchler , Margaret L. Palmsten , Kara S. Doran , Sharifa Karwandyar , Joshua M. Pardun , Elora M. Oades , Ryan P. Mulligan , Eli S. Whitehead-Zimmers
<div><p>The Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast (TWL&CC Forecast) provides coastal communities with 6-day notice of potential elevated water levels and coastal change (i.e., dune erosion, overwash, or inundation) on sandy beaches that threatens safety, infrastructure, or resources. This continuously operating model provides hourly information for select regions along U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean coastlines. The objective of this work is to assess the skill of forecasts during a period of elevated water levels along the coasts of North Carolina (NC) and South Carolina, USA caused by Hurricane Isaias in August 2020, using a combination of observations and model hindcasts. Water levels and waves were observed throughout the storm at three locations near Wrightsville Beach, NC, which provided information to assess forecast skill; a wave buoy offshore, a tide gage at a local pier, and a pressure sensor deployed at the pier. In addition to observations, the non-hydrostatic phase-resolving model SWASH (Simulating WAves till SHore) was forced with hourly wave energy spectra derived from a coupled Delft3D-SWAN simulation during the peak of Isaias, to complement observations by computing nearshore wave height and wave-induced setup and runup at the shoreline. During the storm peak, SWASH-simulated water levels at the sensor position were comparable to those at the maximum landward extent (bias = −0.05 m; gain = 0.26; r<sup>2</sup> = 0.99), suggesting that observations at the USGS sensor location were a useful proxy for total water level (TWL; sum of tide, surge and wave runup) at the shoreline that are predicted by the TWL&CC Forecast. The TWL forecast at Wrightsville Beach was consistent with observations from the USGS sensor (bias = −0.38 m and −0.74 m, scatter index = 0.22 and 0.28 for the two forecast model grids considered, respectively; weighted regression considering model uncertainty explained 95 percent of variability in observed TWL). Observed TWL was within the confidence interval of the TWL&CC Forecast for the 5 h at the storm peak. Forecast mean water levels (MWL; sum of tide, surge and wave setup) and tide gage observations were also consistent (bias = 0.07 m and 0.02 m for the forecast model grids; scatter index = 0.46; r<sup>2</sup> = 0.80). Forecast MWL at the storm peak was within 0.06 m of the observed MWL from the tide gage for both sites. In the region where Isaias made landfall, eight additional pressure sensors were compared to the peak TWL forecast (bias = 0.14 m; scatter index = 0.18). Forecast TWL explained 90 percent of observed variability in TWL when considering uncertainty of the forecast with a weighted regression. The results demonstrate that wave-driven water levels contributed a significant portion of the forecast TWL during Isaias (52 percent during the three peak hours of the storm), and that TWL were represented using the forecast model. Mean absolute error of the coastal change forecast
总水位和海岸变化预报(TWL&CC 预报)为沿海社区提供为期 6 天的通知,预报沙 滩上可能出现的威胁安全、基础设施或资源的水位升高和海岸变化(即沙丘侵蚀、冲刷或淹没)。这一持续运行的模式每小时提供美国墨西哥湾和大西洋沿岸部分地区的信息。这项工作的目的是,在 2020 年 8 月伊萨亚斯飓风造成美国北卡罗来纳州(NC)和南卡罗来纳州沿岸水位升高期间,利用观测数据和模型后报相结合的方法,评估预测技能。在北卡罗来纳州赖茨维尔海滩附近的三个地点对整个风暴期间的水位和海浪进行了观测,为评估预报技能提供了信息:离岸波浪浮标、当地码头的验潮仪以及部署在码头的压力传感器。除观测数据外,在伊萨亚斯风暴最高峰期间,非静水相位解析模型 SWASH(Simulating WAves till SHore)还利用从 Delft3D-SWAN 耦合模拟中获得的每小时波浪能量谱进行强制计算,通过计算近岸波高和波浪引起的海岸线设置和上升,对观测数据进行补充。在风暴峰值期间,传感器位置的 SWASH 模拟水位与最大向陆范围的水位相当(偏差 = -0.05米;增益 = 0.26;r2 = 0.99),这表明 USGS 传感器位置的观测数据是 TWL&CC 预测的海岸线总水位(TWL;潮汐、浪涌和波浪上升的总和)的有用替代数据。Wrightsville 海滩的总水位(TWL)预测结果与 USGS 传感器的观测结果一致(两个预测模型网格的偏差分别为-0.38 米和-0.74 米,分散指数分别为 0.22 和 0.28;考虑到模型不确定性的加权回归解释了观测总水位(TWL)变化的 95%)。在暴雨峰值的 5 小时内,观测到的 TWL 均在 TWL&CC 预报的置信区间内。预报平均水位(MWL;潮汐、涌浪和波浪的总和)与验潮仪观测结果也一致(预报模式网格的偏差 = 0.07 米和 0.02 米;散布指数 = 0.46;r2 = 0.80)。在两个地点,风暴峰值时的预报最大最低水位与验潮仪观测到的最大最低水位相差不超过 0.06 米。在 "伊萨亚斯 "登陆地区,另外 8 个压力传感器与预测的峰值 TWL 进行了比较(偏差 = 0.14 米;散布指数 = 0.18)。当考虑到加权回归预测的不确定性时,预测的总温升解释了观测到的总温升变化的 90%。结果表明,在 "伊萨亚斯 "风暴期间,波浪驱动的水位在预测的双向浮标中占了很 大比例(在风暴的三个高峰时段占 52%),而且双向浮标在预测模式中得到了体现。在所考虑的两个预报模式网格中,沿岸变化预报和观测到的过冲量的平均绝对误差分别为 0.4 和 0.14。这种计算效率高的方法所显示的技术表明,预报系统可以在风暴威胁沿岸地区之前数天至数小时,以亚公里分辨率对数百公里海岸线上的 TWL 进行快速可靠的预报。
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Coastal Engineering
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