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Wave overtopping discharges at rubble mound structures in shallow water 浅水区瓦砾堆结构的波浪倾覆排水量
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104626
Menno P. de Ridder , Dennis C.P. van Kester , Rick van Bentem , Djimin Y.Y. Teng , Marcel R.A. van Gent
Wave overtopping of coastal structures has been studied using physical model experiments with rubble mound breakwaters in shallow water. The mean overtopping discharge is determined for three different foreshore slopes and various hydrodynamic conditions. The hydrodynamic results confirm that energy is transferred to low-frequency waves in very shallow water and that the short waves are in phase with the lower-frequency waves in very shallow water. As a result, the extreme waves (e.g. 2% exceedance wave height) become relatively large in very shallow water due to the energy of the low-frequency waves affecting thereby the wave overtopping. To estimate the amount of energy at the low-frequency waves, an expression is derived which reasonably accurately predicts the low-frequency wave energy (RMSE of 0.06). Considering the non-dimensional overtopping discharge, the existing formulations for the non-dimensional mean wave overtopping discharge perform poorly to reasonably in shallow water with RMSLE ranging from 1.04 to 2.92. A parameter sensitivity study shows that the short-wave steepness, relative crest height and the low-frequency wave height are the most important parameters when predicting the mean overtopping discharge in shallow water. When including the short-wave steepness and relative crest height in an empirical formulation the RMSLE for the current dataset reduces to 0.69. A further increase in accuracy is found when the low-frequency wave height and 2% exceedance wave height are included (RMSLE 0.64).
利用浅水区碎石堆防波堤的物理模型试验,研究了沿岸结构的波浪倾覆。确定了三种不同前滩坡度和各种水动力条件下的平均倾覆排水量。水动力结果证实,在极浅的水域中,能量被转移到低频波上,并且在极浅的水域中,短波与低频波同相。因此,由于低频波的能量会影响波浪的倾覆,极端波浪(如 2% 的超高波浪)在极浅水区会变得相对较大。为了估算低频波的能量,推导出了一个合理准确预测低频波能量的表达式(均方误差为 0.06)。考虑到非维度倾覆排水量,现有的非维度平均波浪倾覆排水量公式在浅水区的合理性表现较差,均方根误差介于 1.04 到 2.92 之间。参数敏感性研究表明,短波陡度、相对波峰高度和低频波高是预测浅水区平均翻波排水量的最重要参数。将短波陡度和相对波峰高度纳入经验公式时,当前数据集的 RMSLE 值降至 0.69。如果将低频波高和 2% 超限波高包括在内,则精度会进一步提高(RMSLE 为 0.64)。
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引用次数: 0
Convergence and divergence of storm waves induced by multi-scale currents: Observations and coupled wave-current modeling 多尺度海流诱发的风暴潮的汇聚和发散:观测数据和波流耦合模型
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104627
Shangfei Lin , Jinyu Sheng , Jinhai Zheng , Aifeng Tao
Current effects on waves (CEW) are among the most intricate physical processes in wave evolution. In this study, we used a coupled wave-tide-circulation model for the Northwest Atlantic to investigate current effects on storm waves during Hurricane Igor in 2010. Validated with extensive buoy and altimeter data, the inclusion of CEW in the model significantly improves the accuracy in simulating significant wave heights (Hs) by up to 21.3% for a wave buoy. Storm waves experience significant temporal and spatial modulation by multi-scale currents. Storm-driven currents have the most pronounced impact to the right of the storm track, which typically align with wave propagation and reduce Hs by up to 12.1%. The subsequent near-inertial oscillations induce temporal fluctuations of wave convergence and divergence at near-inertial frequencies, which also occurs in regions with strong tidal currents but at tidal frequencies. Furthermore, storm waves are modulated by the Gulf Stream, Labrador Current and associated mesoscale eddies. Overall, these multi-scales yield strong effects on storm waves (Hs > 3.0 m), significantly modulating Hs (−25.2%–+55.4%) and mean wave periods (−14.9%–+15.7%). The mean wave energy power shows more significant modulation by multi-scale currents, reflecting the combined effects of changing wave states and current-induced transport of wave energy. CEW are governed by the interactive dynamic and kinematic effects. The relative wind effect is the primary mechanism for lower storm waves by reducing energy input to waves and influences downstream wave states. Among kinematic effects, current-induced wave refraction typically plays a dominant role in redistributing wave energy. This study systematically quantified the modulation of storm waves by multi-scale currents and revealed the underlying mechanisms, providing a comprehensive understanding of extreme wave states under coupled ocean dynamics.
海流对波浪的影响(CEW)是波浪演变过程中最复杂的物理过程之一。在这项研究中,我们使用西北大西洋波浪-潮汐-环流耦合模型研究了 2010 年飓风伊戈尔期间海流对风暴潮的影响。经过大量浮标和测高仪数据的验证,在模型中加入 CEW 后,波浪浮标模拟显著波高(Hs)的准确性显著提高了 21.3%。风暴潮在时间和空间上受到多尺度海流的显著调节。风暴驱动流对风暴轨迹右侧的影响最为明显,它通常与波浪的传播方向一致,可将波高降低 12.1%。随后的近惯性振荡会引起波浪在近惯性频率上的会聚和发散的时间波动,这在有强潮流的地区也会发生,但频率是潮汐频率。此外,风暴潮还受到湾流、拉布拉多洋流和相关中尺度漩涡的调节。总体而言,这些多重尺度对风暴潮(Hs > 3.0 米)产生了强烈影响,显著调节了 Hs(-25.2%-+55.4%)和平均波浪周期(-14.9%-+15.7%)。平均波能功率受多尺度海流的调节更为明显,反映了波浪状态变化和海流引起的波能输送的综合效应。波浪能受动态和运动相互作用的影响。相对风效应是降低风暴潮的主要机制,它可以减少输入波浪的能量,并影响下游波浪状态。在运动效应中,海流引起的波浪折射通常在重新分配波浪能量方面起主导作用。这项研究系统地量化了多尺度海流对风暴潮的调节作用,并揭示了其内在机制,为全面了解耦合海洋动力学条件下的极端波浪状态提供了依据。
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引用次数: 0
Computations of energetic nearshore waves: Are weakly dispersive phase-resolving models telling the same story? 计算高能近岸波:弱色散相位分解模型是否讲述了同样的故事?
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104625
Assaf Azouri , Volker Roeber , Martin D. Guiles , Mark Merrifield , Janet Becker , Douglas S. Luther
Three phase-resolving weakly dispersive wave models are used for 2DH (2D depth-integrated) computations of large-scale wave-by-wave processes induced by highly energetic sea/swell (SS) forcing near Haleʻiwa on the North Shore of Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi. The computed model results are compared to observations obtained over a nearshore cross-reef transect and from the basin of a small boat harbor. The level of agreement between the model results and observations in complex coastal environments under highly energetic wave forcing, along with the qualitative consistency among the three models, makes these models good candidates for operational applications in nearshore environments exposed to energetic wave forcing conditions.
Spectral analyses inside the harbor and over the reef indicate that all three models generally account for infragravity (IG) spatial modal structures that are consistent with observations and the theory of edge and leaky waves. Over the reef, auto- and cross-spectral analyses reveal that the dominant waveforms are qualitatively reproduced by all three models, as indicated through: (i) the growth of IG wave amplitudes from deeper water to the shallow reef sites; (ii) the agreement of power spectral density peaks at the nearshore locations; and (iii) the remarkable similarity of spatial coherence functions among the models and between the models and observations. The computations of swell entering the small boat harbor at Haleʻiwa demonstrate that the models can successfully reproduce the variability in the narrow IG frequency bands that are spatially dependent and often subject to resonant amplifications.
在夏威夷瓦胡岛北岸 Haleʻiwa 附近,使用了三个相位分解弱色散波模型,对高能海平面 (SS) 强迫诱发的大规模逐波过程进行了 2DH(二维深度积分)计算。将计算出的模型结果与在近岸横礁横断面和小船港盆地获得的观测结果进行了比较。对港湾内和礁石上的频谱分析表明,这三种模式都能解释次重力(IG)空间模态结 构,与观测结果以及边缘波和漏波理论相一致。在礁石上,自谱和横谱分析表明,三种模式都能定性地再现主要波形,具体表现在:(i) 从深水区到浅礁区的次重力波振幅增长;(ii) 近岸位置的功率谱密度峰值一致;(iii) 模式之间以及模式与观测结果之间的空间相干函数具有显著的相似性。对进入哈雷伊瓦小船港的涌浪的计算表明,模型可以成功地再现窄 IG 频带的变化,这些频带与空间有关,并经常受到共振放大的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Prototype data analysis of the dynamics of the Venice gate-barriers during an extreme storm event 对极端暴风雨事件期间威尼斯城门屏障动态的原型数据分析
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104623
Paolo Sammarco , Piera Fischione , Alessandro Romano , Giorgio Bellotti , Sergio Dalla Villa
The MoSE barriers system was designed and constructed at the inlets of the Venice Lagoon (Italy) in order to limit and tame the flooding events in the Lagoon areas and in the City. The success of the design and operation of the system has been demonstrated by the significant reduction in the number and intensity of floods in the lagoon since its beginning of operations in 2020. In this study, we investigate the dynamical behavior of the MoSE system at full-scale by analyzing the barriers behavior during the severe storm event of November 22nd, 2022. In particular, the dynamical response of the Chioggia barrier to waves and storm surge is studied in detail. Spectral analysis of field records, barrier and inlet modal analyses and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) techniques are applied to provide a key for interpreting the actual behavior of such a complex system during a storm event, highlighting dominant frequencies and checking for the occurrence of resonance phenomena. First, a brief review of the experimental and theoretical studies carried out over the past forty years is given. Modal patterns of gates oscillations detected via EOF analysis confirm the presence of the eigenmodes of both the barrier and the inlet; however, the gates oscillations during the considered event are mild and the hydraulic performances of the system are satisfactory for the severe event studied. Further field measurements and future severe events should be studied to reach extended conclusions.
在威尼斯泻湖(意大利)的入口处设计并建造了 MoSE 屏障系统,以限制和控制泻湖地区和城市的洪水事件。自 2020 年开始运行以来,潟湖洪水的次数和强度都显著降低,这证明了该系统的设计和运行是成功的。在本研究中,我们通过分析 2022 年 11 月 22 日严重暴雨事件中的障碍物行为,全面研究了 MoSE 系统的动态行为。特别是详细研究了基奥吉亚防波堤对海浪和风暴潮的动态响应。应用现场记录的频谱分析、屏障和入口模态分析以及经验正交函数(EOF)技术,为解释风暴事件期间此类复杂系统的实际行为、突出主要频率和检查共振现象的发生提供了一把钥匙。首先,简要回顾了过去四十年开展的实验和理论研究。通过 EOF 分析检测到的闸门振荡模态模式证实了隔离栅和进水口特征模态的存在;然而,在所考虑的事件中,闸门振荡是轻微的,系统的水力性能在所研究的严重事件中是令人满意的。应进一步进行实地测量和研究未来的严重事件,以得出更广泛的结论。
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引用次数: 0
Vertical growth rate of planted vegetation controls dune growth on a sandy beach 种植植被的垂直生长率控制着沙滩上的沙丘生长
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104624
Glenn Strypsteen , Sierd de Vries , Bart van Westen , Dries Bonte , Jan-Markus Homberger , Caroline Hallin , Pieter Rauwoens
The integration of coastal dunes planted with vegetation and dikes combines traditional infrastructure with dynamic aeolian sediment and ecological processes to enhance coastal resilience. The functioning of such dune-dike hybrid Nature-based Solution strongly depends on aeolian sediment transport and the vertical growth rate of vegetation. We used the AeoLiS numerical model to investigate the relative importance of aeolian and vegetation dynamics in the evolution of a 120 m long and 20 m wide marram grass-planted dune field on a Belgian sandy beach backed by a seawall, constructed in 2021. AeoLiS proved to be a promising tool for predicting these systems, effectively capturing aeolian sediment deposition, vegetation growth, and profile development three years post-construction. Seasonal variations in vegetation trapping efficiency, driven by sediment burial, and seasonal plant growth emerged as important factors controlling dune growth. Profile development discrepancies were attributed to unaccounted biotic and abiotic factors, highlighting the complexity of coastal eco-geomorphological processes. Dunes planted with vegetation wider than 20 m were identified to enhance sediment trapping without an increase in dune height. These findings offer actionable insights for coastal management, promoting strategic dune design and planting approaches to reinforce shoreline resilience. Additionally, the findings underscore the necessity for advancing eco-morphodynamic models and deepening our knowledge of coastal dune dynamics.
将种植植被的沿海沙丘与堤坝结合起来,将传统的基础设施与动态的风化沉积物和生态过程结合起来,以提高沿海地区的抗灾能力。这种沙丘-堤坝混合型自然解决方案的功能在很大程度上取决于风化沉积物的运移和植被的垂直生长速度。我们使用 AeoLiS 数值模型研究了风化动力学和植被动力学在比利时沙滩上一个长 120 米、宽 20 米、种植马拉姆草的沙丘地演变过程中的相对重要性,该沙丘地背靠海堤,建于 2021 年。事实证明,AeoLiS 是预测这些系统的有效工具,可有效捕捉施工三年后的风化沉积物沉积、植被生长和剖面发展。由沉积物掩埋和季节性植物生长引起的植被截留效率的季节性变化是控制沙丘生长的重要因素。沙丘剖面发育的差异可归因于未考虑的生物和非生物因素,这凸显了沿岸生态地貌过程的复杂性。在沙丘上种植超过 20 米宽的植被,可以在不增加沙丘高度的情况下提高沉积物截留能力。这些发现为海岸管理提供了可操作的见解,促进了战略性沙丘设计和种植方法,以加强海岸线的复原力。此外,这些发现还强调了推进生态形态动力学模型和加深我们对沿海沙丘动态的了解的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Wave-plus-current induced span shoulder migration in three dimensional scour around submarine pipeline 海底管道周围三维冲刷中波浪加水流诱导的跨肩迁移
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104622
Titi Sui , Qi Yang , Leon Heine Staunstrup , Stefan Carstensen , Jun Huang , Chi Zhang , Jinhai Zheng , David R. Fuhrman
The purpose of this study is to investigate the rate of span shoulder propagation under conditions of waves and current. The study analyzed 117 cases from previous and present investigations, which were divided into three categories: pure wave, wave-plus-current, and pure current. Furthering the framework of Sui et al. (2021) for pure current conditions, the relative current strength was included in the present study to incorporate the effects of the wave component in a general wave-plus-current condition, through a systematic dimensional analysis. For a given excess Shields parameter, the pure current case has the largest migration velocity compared to the wave conditions. Incorporating the wave components into the pure current decreases the rate of the span shoulder propagation. A new model is proposed to predict the rate of span shoulder propagation while considering the dependency of current strength, excess Shields parameter, and embedded depth. The new model has a determination coefficient of 0.8, indicating its ability to accurately predict the rate of the span shoulder propagation under general wave and current conditions. Parametric studies show that increasing the excess Shields parameter increases the migration rate while increasing the embedment depth, ratio of the pipe diameter to the grain diameter decreases it.
本研究的目的是调查波浪和水流条件下跨肩的传播速度。本研究分析了以往和当前研究中的 117 个案例,将其分为三类:纯波浪、波浪加水流和纯水流。在 Sui 等人(2021 年)针对纯水流条件的框架基础上,本研究通过系统的维度分析,将相对水流强度纳入到一般波浪加水流条件下的波浪分量的影响中。对于给定的过量希尔兹参数,与波浪条件相比,纯水流情况下的迁移速度最大。在纯电流中加入波浪成分会降低跨肩的传播速度。我们提出了一个新模型来预测跨肩的传播速度,同时考虑了水流强度、过量盾构参数和嵌入深度的相关性。新模型的确定系数为 0.8,表明其能够准确预测一般波浪和水流条件下的跨肩传播速度。参数研究表明,增加过量盾构参数会增加迁移率,而增加嵌入深度和管道直径与晶粒直径之比会降低迁移率。
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引用次数: 0
A quasi-three-phase flow simulation of the interactions between solitary waves and a vertical seawall installed on a sandy beach 孤波与安装在沙滩上的垂直海堤之间相互作用的准三相流模拟
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104621
Shijie Huang, Zhenhua Huang
Local scour and wave loading are two key factors that affect the safety of seawalls under tsunami attacks. In this study, the scouring process at the toe of and wave impact force on a vertical seawall under consecutive solitary wave attacks are simulated using a quasi-three-phase (air, water, and sediment) flow model, which models the air and water as a fluid mixture phase and sediment as a solid phase. The air and water interface is modeled by a VOF method and the sediment–fluid interaction is modeled using the Eulerian two-phase flow method. A comparison between the beach profiles with and without the seawall shows that, with a seawall, a deeper scour hole is generated at the toe of the seawall. Besides, the presence of the seawall causes the eroded sediment to be deposited further offshore. The numerical results are then analyzed in detail regarding the flow field and sediment transport process to reveal the mechanisms of the above eroding/depositing patterns. The wave impact force on the seawall is also analyzed to understand the effect of scouring on the wave loading. It is shown that the wave impact force, despite being stochastic for a specific wave, increases in general with the deepening of the scour hole because the latter increases the exposure of the seawall to wave slamming.
局部冲刷和波浪荷载是影响海啸袭击下海堤安全的两个关键因素。本研究采用准三相(空气、水和沉积物)流模型模拟了连续孤波攻击下垂直海堤趾部的冲刷过程和波浪对海堤的冲击力,该模型将空气和水作为流体混合物相,将沉积物作为固相。空气和水的界面采用 VOF 方法建模,沉积物与流体的相互作用采用欧拉两相流方法建模。对有海堤和无海堤的海滩剖面进行比较后发现,有海堤时,海堤趾部产生的冲刷洞更深。此外,海堤的存在会使侵蚀的沉积物沉积到离岸更远的地方。然后对数值结果中的流场和泥沙输运过程进行了详细分析,以揭示上述侵蚀/沉积模式的机理。此外,还分析了波浪对海堤的冲击力,以了解冲刷对波浪载荷的影响。结果表明,尽管波浪冲击力对特定波浪来说是随机的,但总体上会随着冲刷孔的加深而增加,因为后者增加了海堤受波浪冲击的暴露程度。
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引用次数: 0
Hazard-consistent scenario selection for long-term storm surge risk assessment over extended coastal regions 为扩展沿海区域的长期风暴潮风险评估选择与灾害一致的情景
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104620
WoongHee Jung , Alexandros A. Taflanidis , Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo , Madison C. Yawn , Luke A. Aucoin
The recent destructive hurricane seasons and concerns related to the future influence of climate change have increased the relevance of coastal storm hazards and, in particular, of storm surge hazard estimation when discussing the resilience of coastal communities. This hazard is generally represented as surge inundation probabilities over a large number of individual locations in the geographic domain of interest, and is typically assessed utilizing an ensemble of storm scenarios (i.e., storm events) that are representative of the regional climatology. This paper investigates the storm ensemble selection within this setting, with the objective of identifying a small number of storm scenarios that are consistent with some chosen hazard descriptions over a large geographic region. Beyond the storm events, the occurrence rates (i.e., weights) are also updated. Following past works, a two-stage optimization is adopted for the storm selection. The inner-loop identifies the occurrence rates for a given storm subset, formulating the problem as a linear programming optimization for the sum of absolute deviation for the predicted hazard. The outer-loop searches for the best subset with the desired number of storms, adopting a genetic algorithm integer optimization for minimizing the aforementioned deviation. This work extends this implementation to extended coastal regions, with many locations of interest. In this case, it is computationally intractable to consider all the locations in the domain within the linear programming formulation, and for this reason, a subset of representative locations is chosen through cluster analysis. The hazard description for only these locations is used in the storm ensemble selection. For clustering, different strategies using correlation between locations based on geospatial information, surge response, or a combination of both are examined. Additionally, the correlation in the hazard description is better integrated into the storm selection by establishing a modification of the objective function adopted for the outer optimization loop. Applications to different North Atlantic coastal domains are presented as case studies.
最近几个具有破坏性的飓风季节以及对未来气候变化影响的担忧,增加了沿海风暴 灾害的相关性,特别是在讨论沿海社区抗灾能力时,风暴潮灾害估算的相关性。这种灾害通常表现为相关地理区域内大量单个地点的风暴潮淹没概率,通常利用能代表区域气候的风暴场景(即风暴事件)组合进行评估。本文研究了在这种情况下的风暴集合选择,目的是确定少量风暴情景,这些情景与所选的大地理区域内的某些灾害描述相一致。除风暴事件外,还更新了发生率(即权重)。根据以往的工作经验,风暴选择采用两阶段优化法。内环识别给定风暴子集的发生率,将问题表述为预测危害绝对偏差总和的线性编程优化。外环采用遗传算法整数优化,最小化上述偏差,寻找具有所需风暴次数的最佳子集。这项工作将这一实施方法扩展到沿海地区,包括许多感兴趣的地点。在这种情况下,在线性规划公式中考虑域内的所有地点在计算上是难以实现的,因此,通过聚类分析选择了一个有代表性的地点子集。在选择风暴集合时,只使用这些地点的灾害描述。在聚类分析中,根据地理空间信息、浪涌响应或两者的结合,利用地点之间的相关性来研究不同的策略。此外,通过修改外部优化环路采用的目标函数,将灾害描述中的相关性更好地融入风暴选 择中。案例研究介绍了北大西洋不同沿海地区的应用情况。
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引用次数: 0
Adaptive formulation for probabilistic storm surge predictions through sharing of numerical simulation results across storm advisories 通过跨风暴警报共享数值模拟结果,自适应制定风暴潮概率预测方法
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104618
WoongHee Jung, Alexandros A. Taflanidis
As a tropical storm/cyclone approaches landfall, real-time probabilistic predictions for the anticipated surge provide valuable information for emergency preparedness/response decisions. These probabilistic predictions are made through an uncertainty quantification process that involves: (i) generating a sufficiently large ensemble of storm scenarios based on the nominal storm advisory and the anticipated forecast errors; (ii) performing high-fidelity numerical simulations to obtain surge predictions for each storm scenario; and (iii) estimating surge statistics of interest by assembling the simulation results. This process is repeated whenever the nominal storm advisory is updated. The number of storm scenarios utilized in the analysis directly impacts the statistical accuracy of the probabilistic predictions; a larger ensemble improves accuracy but requires greater computational resources to provide predictions with the desired expediency to guide real-time decisions. This paper revisits two recently proposed Monte-Carlo (MC) frameworks that aim to improve accuracy without increasing the computational burden: adaptive importance sampling (AIS) and adaptive multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (AMFMC). The foundational concept behind them is similar: share numerical simulation results across the probabilistic predictions performed for different storm advisories to accelerate the MC estimation. This is achieved differently for each approach, through adaptive development of an importance sampling proposal density (for AIS) or a surrogate model (for AMFMC). Here, a direct comparison between these frameworks is established, focusing on the mechanisms for the information sharing and the challenges encountered in tuning the algorithm adaptive characteristics to provide probabilistic estimates across a large number of quantities of interest (QoIs), corresponding to the surge predictions for different locations within the coastal region of interest. As this large number results in conflicting choices for the adaptive characteristics, a compromise solution needs to be promoted. The efficacy of the two frameworks is examined in detail in this setting, comparing the accuracy of idealized implementations (adaptive decisions independently made for each QoI) to the accuracy of practical implementations (single, compromise decision within the MC implementation). The study also showcases the importance of information sharing across storm advisories in real-time probabilistic storm surge predictions and provides guidelines for an efficient adaptive MC formulation in such settings.
当热带风暴/旋风接近登陆时,对预计涌浪的实时概率预测为应急准备/响应决策提供了宝贵的信息。这些概率预测是通过一个不确定性量化过程进行的,其中包括:(i) 根据名义风暴警报和预期预报误差生成足够大的风暴情景组合;(ii) 进行高保真数值模拟,以获得每个风暴情景的浪涌预测值;(iii) 通过组合模拟结果估算相关的浪涌统计数据。每当名义风暴警报更新时,都会重复这一过程。分析中使用的风暴场景数量直接影响概率预测的统计准确性;更大的集合可提高准确性,但需要更多的计算资源才能提供所需的快速预测,以指导实时决策。本文重温了最近提出的两个蒙特卡洛(MC)框架,其目的是在不增加计算负担的情况下提高准确性:自适应重要度采样(AIS)和自适应多保真度蒙特卡洛(AMFMC)。这两种方法的基本概念相似:在不同风暴警报的概率预测中共享数值模拟结果,以加速 MC 估算。每种方法都通过自适应开发重要性采样建议密度(AIS)或替代模型(AMFMC)来实现这一目标。在这里,将对这两种方法进行直接比较,重点是信息共享机制,以及在调整算法自适应 特性以提供大量相关量(QoIs)的概率估计时所遇到的挑战。由于数量众多,对自适应特征的选择会产生冲突,因此需要找到一种折衷方案。在这种情况下,对这两个框架的功效进行了详细研究,比较了理想化实施(针对每个 QoI 独立做出自适应决策)和实际实施(在 MC 实施中做出单一折中决策)的准确性。这项研究还展示了在实时概率风暴潮预测中跨风暴警报共享信息的重要性,并为在这种情况下制定高效的自适应 MC 提供了指导。
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引用次数: 0
Super-resolution on unstructured coastal wave computations with graph neural networks and polynomial regressions 利用图神经网络和多项式回归对非结构化沿岸波计算进行超分辨率处理
IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104619
Jannik Kuehn , Stéphane Abadie , Matthias Delpey , Volker Roeber

Accurate high-resolution wave forecasts are essential for coastal communities, but local and even coastal coverage is often still missing due to the heavy computational load of modern state-of-the-art wave models. This study presents a machine learning super-resolution approach that drastically reduces the computational effort, while keeping errors negligible for the majority of forecasting applications. The method consists of first computing a wave forecast on a coarse mesh which is then converted to a forecast of finer resolution with the help of machine learning. To demonstrate the feasibility and the potential for practical applications of this approach, we present a case study of a 44-year hindcast along the French Basque coast over an unstructured mesh. We introduce two machine learning approaches, a graph neural network and a polynomial ridge regression and compare their performances in different sea states and spatial environments. Both models exhibit very small prediction errors for the significant wave heights, with Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) ranging from 0.3 cm to 2 cm, depending on the study region, while being up to 80 times faster than a direct computation of a numerical wave model at the corresponding spatial resolution. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that a super-resolution approach is extended to unstructured meshes in the field of coastal sciences.

精确的高分辨率波浪预报对沿海社区至关重要,但由于现代最先进的波浪模型计算量大,往往仍无法覆盖当地甚至沿海地区。本研究提出了一种机器学习超分辨率方法,可大幅减少计算量,同时使误差在大多数预报应用中可以忽略不计。该方法首先在粗网格上计算波浪预报,然后在机器学习的帮助下将其转换为分辨率更高的预报。为了证明这种方法的可行性和实际应用潜力,我们介绍了一个在非结构化网格上沿法国巴斯克海岸进行 44 年后报的案例研究。我们引入了两种机器学习方法:图神经网络和多项式脊回归,并比较了它们在不同海况和空间环境下的表现。这两种模型对显著波高的预测误差都非常小,根据研究区域的不同,均方根误差(RMSE)从 0.3 厘米到 2 厘米不等,同时比直接计算相应空间分辨率的数值波浪模型快 80 倍。据我们所知,这是在沿岸科学领域首次将超分辨率方法扩展到非结构网格。
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Coastal Engineering
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