Ecological Economics最新文献_第9页

Determinants of willingness to bear the costs for environmental protection: Insights from cross-country survey data 环境保护成本承担意愿的决定因素：来自跨国调查数据的见解

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108876

Toker Doganoglu , Lukasz Grzybowski , Joanna Rachubik

Using data from the 2020 International Social Survey Programme (ISSP), Environment IV module from 26 countries on about 29,183 individuals, we investigate the influence of socio-demographic factors, consumer behavior, environmental beliefs, opinions, and attitudes on the willingness to pay higher prices and higher taxes, as well as the willingness to reduce their standard of living of respondents in support of environmental protection. The findings reveal significant variations in willingness to bear financial burdens for environmental protection across different countries and socio-economic groups. Our analysis highlights the critical role of education, religion, political affiliation, and trust in institutions in shaping environmental attitudes and behaviors. Moreover, after controlling for individual characteristics, significant international disparities persist. Many European countries, despite their progressive environmental policies, show lower willingness for higher taxes, which may be due to already high tax burdens. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring policy communications to different socio-economic groups, emphasizing both the immediate and long-term benefits of environmental protection to enhance acceptance among various demographic segments.

利用2020年国际社会调查计划（ISSP）环境IV模块中来自26个国家的约29,183个人的数据，我们调查了社会人口因素，消费者行为，环境信念，意见和态度对支付更高价格和更高税收的意愿的影响，以及受访者为了支持环境保护而降低生活水平的意愿。研究结果显示，不同国家和社会经济群体承担环境保护财政负担的意愿存在显著差异。我们的分析强调了教育、宗教、政治派别和对制度的信任在塑造环境态度和行为方面的关键作用。此外，在控制了个体特征之后，显著的国际差异仍然存在。许多欧洲国家尽管有进步的环境政策，但对提高税收的意愿不高，这可能是由于已经很高的税收负担。这些调查结果强调了根据不同的社会经济群体调整政策沟通的重要性，强调环境保护的眼前和长期利益，以提高不同人口阶层的接受程度。

{"title":"Determinants of willingness to bear the costs for environmental protection: Insights from cross-country survey data","authors":"Toker Doganoglu , Lukasz Grzybowski , Joanna Rachubik","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108876","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108876","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using data from the 2020 International Social Survey Programme (ISSP), Environment IV module from 26 countries on about 29,183 individuals, we investigate the influence of socio-demographic factors, consumer behavior, environmental beliefs, opinions, and attitudes on the willingness to pay higher prices and higher taxes, as well as the willingness to reduce their standard of living of respondents in support of environmental protection. The findings reveal significant variations in willingness to bear financial burdens for environmental protection across different countries and socio-economic groups. Our analysis highlights the critical role of education, religion, political affiliation, and trust in institutions in shaping environmental attitudes and behaviors. Moreover, after controlling for individual characteristics, significant international disparities persist. Many European countries, despite their progressive environmental policies, show lower willingness for higher taxes, which may be due to already high tax burdens. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring policy communications to different socio-economic groups, emphasizing both the immediate and long-term benefits of environmental protection to enhance acceptance among various demographic segments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 108876"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145657886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The hidden social costs of climate change: Evidence on weather shocks, children’s mobility and rural economic welfare in Uganda 气候变化的隐性社会成本：关于乌干达天气冲击、儿童流动性和农村经济福利的证据

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108859

Manuela Coromaldi , Alessio D’Amato , Loredana Mirra

Children’s mobility is a relevant phenomenon worldwide. It is even more relevant in developing countries, where the income conditions of rural households exacerbate it. Meanwhile, difficulties in feeding and raising children in rural areas are worsened by climate-related shocks, which severely affect agricultural production. The aim of this paper is to move a further step in the investigation of the role played by weather shocks in driving rural households’ critical decisions, with specific attention to children’s mobility. In turn, we aim to identify the impact of such decisions on rural households’ economic welfare in terms of expenditure and income. To this end, we apply a panel two-stage least squares model, and then we adopt the approach by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) to evaluate the dynamic effects of children’s mobility decisions on rural households’ economic outcomes. Our findings highlight the asymmetric effects of climate shocks: wet events are associated with increased child mobility, while droughts reduce the likelihood that children are sent away. Furthermore, we estimate causal links between child mobility and economic outcomes. Although child relocation is associated with modest increases in per capita food expenditure, total income, and agricultural income, dynamic analysis reveals a more complex picture. Positive effects on expenditure are only manifest two years after relocation, particularly for older children, while crop income declines significantly, although temporarily, following child mobility decisions. These results suggest that child relocation is not always an effective or welfare-improving strategy.

儿童流动是一个世界性的相关现象。这在发展中国家更为重要，因为发展中国家农村家庭的收入状况加剧了这一问题。与此同时，与气候有关的冲击加剧了农村儿童的喂养和抚养困难，严重影响了农业生产。本文的目的是进一步研究天气冲击在推动农村家庭做出关键决策方面所起的作用，并特别关注儿童的流动性。反过来，我们的目标是确定这些决定对农村家庭在支出和收入方面的经济福利的影响。为此，我们采用面板两阶段最小二乘模型，然后采用Callaway和Sant’anna（2021）的方法来评估儿童流动决策对农村家庭经济结果的动态影响。我们的研究结果强调了气候冲击的不对称影响：潮湿事件与儿童流动性增加有关，而干旱则降低了儿童被送走的可能性。此外，我们估计了儿童流动性与经济结果之间的因果关系。虽然儿童迁移与人均粮食支出、总收入和农业收入的适度增加有关，但动态分析揭示了一个更为复杂的情况。对支出的积极影响仅在搬迁两年后才显现出来，特别是对年龄较大的儿童，而在儿童流动决定之后，作物收入大幅下降，尽管是暂时的。这些结果表明，儿童安置并不总是一种有效的或改善福利的策略。

{"title":"The hidden social costs of climate change: Evidence on weather shocks, children’s mobility and rural economic welfare in Uganda","authors":"Manuela Coromaldi , Alessio D’Amato , Loredana Mirra","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108859","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108859","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Children’s mobility is a relevant phenomenon worldwide. It is even more relevant in developing countries, where the income conditions of rural households exacerbate it. Meanwhile, difficulties in feeding and raising children in rural areas are worsened by climate-related shocks, which severely affect agricultural production. The aim of this paper is to move a further step in the investigation of the role played by weather shocks in driving rural households’ critical decisions, with specific attention to children’s mobility. In turn, we aim to identify the impact of such decisions on rural households’ economic welfare in terms of expenditure and income. To this end, we apply a panel two-stage least squares model, and then we adopt the approach by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) to evaluate the dynamic effects of children’s mobility decisions on rural households’ economic outcomes. Our findings highlight the asymmetric effects of climate shocks: wet events are associated with increased child mobility, while droughts reduce the likelihood that children are sent away. Furthermore, we estimate causal links between child mobility and economic outcomes. Although child relocation is associated with modest increases in per capita food expenditure, total income, and agricultural income, dynamic analysis reveals a more complex picture. Positive effects on expenditure are only manifest two years after relocation, particularly for older children, while crop income declines significantly, although temporarily, following child mobility decisions. These results suggest that child relocation is not always an effective or welfare-improving strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 108859"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145613586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Plant diversity to cope with increased drought risk in grasslands 应对草原干旱风险增加的植物多样性

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108852

Nicolas Alou , Sergei Schaub , Matthias Suter , Andreas Lüscher , Robert Finger

Grasslands are essential for global milk and meat production. Climate change and growing frequency of extreme weather events are expected to increase variability in production. This study explores how plant diversity can act as natural insurance against drought risks in grasslands using theoretical model and simulation. Examining sown diversity from a portfolio perspective, we identify mechanisms underlying its insurance value, including the statistical averaging effects and community asynchrony. Our findings demonstrate that, within productive grasslands, modest plant diversity can mitigate a substantial portion (37 %) of the risk, offering a sustainable climate adaptation strategy in production-oriented ecosystems.

草原对全球牛奶和肉类生产至关重要。气候变化和极端天气事件日益频繁预计将增加产量的可变性。本研究利用理论模型和模拟方法探讨了植物多样性如何作为草原干旱风险的自然保险。从投资组合的角度考察种子多样性，我们确定了其保险价值背后的机制，包括统计平均效应和社区异步。我们的研究结果表明，在生产性草原内，适度的植物多样性可以减轻很大一部分（37%）的风险，为以生产为导向的生态系统提供可持续的气候适应策略。

引用次数: 0

Who suffers the heat? Partial adaptation and persistent inequalities in France 谁在忍受高温？法国的部分适应和持续的不平等

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108873

Camille Salesse

This paper examines the heterogeneous effects of extreme heat on mortality in France, highlighting disparities across population density, socio-economic characteristics, and time. Using a new monthly database of French municipalities from 1980 to 2019, I exploit year-to-year random variations in temperature to show that extreme heat significantly increases the mortality rate, especially for people aged 75 and over. The study also emphasizes the greater vulnerability of people living in densely populated cities due to structural challenges that amplify the impact of high temperatures. Socio-economic conditions also shape vulnerability, as low-income municipalities face a disproportionate impact, especially in rural areas. Indeed, the paper’s key contribution is to disentangle the effects of urban density and income on the heat–mortality relationship, showing that social inequalities in the effects of high temperatures are particularly pronounced in rural settings. The results also show a major reduction in the impact of heat following the extreme 2003 heatwave, partly due to the National Heatwave Plan implemented in response to this event.

本文考察了极端高温对法国死亡率的异质性影响，突出了人口密度、社会经济特征和时间的差异。我利用1980年至2019年法国各市新的月度数据库，利用气温的逐年随机变化，表明极端高温会显著增加死亡率，尤其是75岁及以上的人。该研究还强调，由于结构性挑战放大了高温的影响，生活在人口密集城市的人们更容易受到伤害。社会经济条件也会影响脆弱性，因为低收入城市面临着不成比例的影响，特别是在农村地区。事实上，这篇论文的关键贡献在于理清了城市密度和收入对热死亡率关系的影响，表明高温影响的社会不平等在农村地区尤为明显。研究结果还显示，2003年极端热浪之后，热浪的影响大大减少，部分原因是为应对这一事件而实施的国家热浪计划。

{"title":"Who suffers the heat? Partial adaptation and persistent inequalities in France","authors":"Camille Salesse","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the heterogeneous effects of extreme heat on mortality in France, highlighting disparities across population density, socio-economic characteristics, and time. Using a new monthly database of French municipalities from 1980 to 2019, I exploit year-to-year random variations in temperature to show that extreme heat significantly increases the mortality rate, especially for people aged 75 and over. The study also emphasizes the greater vulnerability of people living in densely populated cities due to structural challenges that amplify the impact of high temperatures. Socio-economic conditions also shape vulnerability, as low-income municipalities face a disproportionate impact, especially in rural areas. Indeed, the paper’s key contribution is to disentangle the effects of urban density and income on the heat–mortality relationship, showing that social inequalities in the effects of high temperatures are particularly pronounced in rural settings. The results also show a major reduction in the impact of heat following the extreme 2003 heatwave, partly due to the National Heatwave Plan implemented in response to this event.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 108873"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145575688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tailored information and the public support for carbon pricing in Germany 德国碳定价的定制信息和公众支持

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108849

Antonia Schwarz , Anna Stünzi , Kathrin Kaestner , Michael Pahle , Stephan Sommer

Providing information about carbon pricing is widely considered to be key to increasing public support for it. A number of studies have analyzed such effects, but little attention has been paid to how changes to the design can enhance the effectiveness of information treatments. Typically, generic information with low affective appeal has been used. In contrast, this paper, drawing on recent research into the design of information provisions, employs a targeted and tailored approach to ensure high receptiveness. Utilizing novel German survey data, we examine whether video-based information tailored to individuals’ carbon pricing concerns outperforms generic information. Our results confirm that targeted and tailored information significantly increases support, primarily for respondents concerned about costs. However, the effect of tailored information concerning fairness and effectiveness is statistically not different from that of the generic control video. Nevertheless, it reduces strong opposition, providing valuable insights for policy acceptance. These findings suggest that integrating targeted communication strategies into climate policy design may help build broader policy tolerance and stability, though further research is needed to confirm their effectiveness beyond the specific context of this study.

提供有关碳定价的信息被广泛认为是增加公众支持的关键。许多研究已经分析了这种影响，但很少有人关注如何改变设计来提高信息处理的有效性。通常，使用的是情感吸引力较低的通用信息。相比之下，本文借鉴了最近对信息提供设计的研究，采用了有针对性和量身定制的方法来确保高接受度。利用新颖的德国调查数据，我们研究了针对个人碳定价问题定制的基于视频的信息是否优于一般信息。我们的研究结果证实，有针对性和量身定制的信息显著增加了支持，主要是针对关心成本的受访者。然而，关于公平性和有效性的定制信息的效果在统计上与通用控制视频没有区别。然而，它减少了强烈的反对，为政策的接受提供了有价值的见解。这些发现表明，将有针对性的传播策略整合到气候政策设计中可能有助于建立更广泛的政策容忍度和稳定性，尽管需要进一步的研究来证实其在本研究特定背景之外的有效性。

{"title":"Tailored information and the public support for carbon pricing in Germany","authors":"Antonia Schwarz , Anna Stünzi , Kathrin Kaestner , Michael Pahle , Stephan Sommer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108849","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108849","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Providing information about carbon pricing is widely considered to be key to increasing public support for it. A number of studies have analyzed such effects, but little attention has been paid to how changes to the design can enhance the effectiveness of information treatments. Typically, generic information with low affective appeal has been used. In contrast, this paper, drawing on recent research into the design of information provisions, employs a targeted and tailored approach to ensure high receptiveness. Utilizing novel German survey data, we examine whether video-based information tailored to individuals’ carbon pricing concerns outperforms generic information. Our results confirm that targeted and tailored information significantly increases support, primarily for respondents concerned about costs. However, the effect of tailored information concerning fairness and effectiveness is statistically not different from that of the generic control video. Nevertheless, it reduces strong opposition, providing valuable insights for policy acceptance. These findings suggest that integrating targeted communication strategies into climate policy design may help build broader policy tolerance and stability, though further research is needed to confirm their effectiveness beyond the specific context of this study.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 108849"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145657884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The effectiveness of unilateral fishing ban in contested waters: Evidence from the South China Sea 争议水域单边禁渔的有效性：来自南中国海的证据

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108812

Yifei Quan

This study examines the effectiveness of China's unilateral fishing moratorium in the South China Sea, where unresolved sovereign rights disputes complicate policy enforcement and compliance. Using high-resolution vessel tracking data and causal inference techniques, I identify both intended and unintended impacts of this policy. The findings indicate that while domestic fishing effort within closed areas declines by 84% during the moratorium, regulated vessels' strategic reallocation of fishing activity before and after the ban, along with increased foreign fishing activity during the ban, offsets 60% of the intended conservation gain. Moreover, I find that policy effectiveness fluctuates with external political conditions, as higher compliance coincides with stricter law enforcement and heightened territorial disputes. These findings highlight the challenges of implementing sustainable fisheries management in the absence of clearly defined property rights.

本研究考察了中国在南中国海单方面休渔期的有效性，未解决的主权权利争端使政策的执行和遵守复杂化。使用高分辨率船舶跟踪数据和因果推理技术，我确定了该政策的预期和非预期影响。研究结果表明，虽然在禁令期间，封闭区域内的国内捕捞量下降了84%，但受管制船只在禁令前后对捕捞活动的战略性重新分配，以及禁令期间外国捕捞活动的增加，抵消了60%的预期保护收益。此外，我发现政策有效性随外部政治条件而波动，因为合规程度越高，执法越严格，领土争端也越严重。这些调查结果突出了在缺乏明确界定的产权的情况下实施可持续渔业管理的挑战。

引用次数: 0

Resource regimes and the success of local renewable energy projects 资源制度和地方可再生能源项目的成功

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108843

François-Xavier Viallon , Francesco Sarti , Pierre-Henri Bombenger , Frédéric Varone , Josef Philipp Trein , Marie-Joëlle Kodjovi , Jérôme Dubois , Yann Fournis , Pierre-Olivier Pineau

While national governments and parliaments adopt policies to speed up the development of renewable energies, the local implementation of renewable energy projects often faces economic, ecological, and social challenges. The existing literature primarily focuses on conditions which foster local acceptance and policy integration to explain the (non-)realization of renewable energy projects. In contrast, property rights have not yet been explicitly considered as conditions. This study applies the institutional resource regime approach to investigate the joint impact of property rights and public policies on the local implementation of renewable energy projects. Drawing on a comparison of twelve cases which encompass solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal energy projects in three countries, the results show the importance of property rights within the project area, and the insufficiency of public policies alone to facilitate successful renewable energy projects. More specifically, public landownership and revenue sharing increase the chances of project success, as this entails the involvement of local democratic institutions and supports the resilience of project promotors against political contestation.

在各国政府和议会采取政策加快可再生能源发展的同时，地方可再生能源项目的实施往往面临着经济、生态和社会方面的挑战。现有文献主要侧重于促进当地接受和政策整合的条件，以解释可再生能源项目的（不）实现。相比之下，产权尚未被明确视为条件。本研究运用制度资源制度方法，探讨产权和公共政策对地方实施可再生能源项目的共同影响。通过对三个国家的太阳能、风能、生物质能和地热能项目的12个案例进行比较，结果显示了项目区域内产权的重要性，以及仅靠公共政策不足以促进成功的可再生能源项目。更具体地说，公共土地所有权和收入分享增加了项目成功的机会，因为这需要地方民主机构的参与，并支持项目发起人对政治争论的复原力。

{"title":"Resource regimes and the success of local renewable energy projects","authors":"François-Xavier Viallon , Francesco Sarti , Pierre-Henri Bombenger , Frédéric Varone , Josef Philipp Trein , Marie-Joëlle Kodjovi , Jérôme Dubois , Yann Fournis , Pierre-Olivier Pineau","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108843","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108843","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While national governments and parliaments adopt policies to speed up the development of renewable energies, the local implementation of renewable energy projects often faces economic, ecological, and social challenges. The existing literature primarily focuses on conditions which foster local acceptance and policy integration to explain the (non-)realization of renewable energy projects. In contrast, property rights have not yet been explicitly considered as conditions. This study applies the institutional resource regime approach to investigate the joint impact of property rights and public policies on the local implementation of renewable energy projects. Drawing on a comparison of twelve cases which encompass solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal energy projects in three countries, the results show the importance of property rights within the project area, and the insufficiency of public policies alone to facilitate successful renewable energy projects. More specifically, public landownership and revenue sharing increase the chances of project success, as this entails the involvement of local democratic institutions and supports the resilience of project promotors against political contestation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 108843"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145441641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The grey shades of green jobs: Unpacking the occupational approach to green employment 绿色工作的灰色阴影：打开绿色就业的职业途径

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108833

Davide Villani, Enrique Fernández-Macías, Ignacio González-Vázquez, Vesna Oshafi

The green transition is expected to reshape labor markets, yet measuring its employment impact remains uncertain. This paper provides a detailed discussion of the occupational approach (derived from task-based measures) for estimating green employment, the most widespread framework among academics and institutions. First, we highlight the theoretical flaws of the occupational approach, noting that its reliance on occupational titles leads to false positives and excludes essential contributors to the green transition, resulting in false negatives. Second, we discuss the methodological problems of this approach, including inconsistent categorisations, outdated classifications, and the assumption that the content of occupations remains constant across time and countries. Third, we operationalise the occupational approach to measure green employment (using the O*NET framework), quantifying green employment in 24 European countries between 2011 and 2022. The analysis shows that, according to this approach, virtually no new green jobs were created in Europe in this period. Furthermore, we find no correlation between the presence of green jobs and several aggregate and sectoral environmental indicators. These findings reflect the theoretical and methodological flaws in the occupational approach, undermining its effectiveness in capturing the labour market impact of the green transition. Alternative measures of green employment focused on green economic outputs and processes should be considered.

绿色转型预计将重塑劳动力市场，但衡量其对就业的影响仍不确定。本文详细讨论了用于估计绿色就业的职业方法（源自基于任务的措施），这是学术界和机构中最广泛的框架。首先，我们强调了职业方法的理论缺陷，注意到它对职业头衔的依赖会导致误报，并排除了绿色转型的重要贡献者，从而导致误报。其次，我们讨论了这种方法的方法问题，包括不一致的分类，过时的分类，以及职业内容在不同时间和国家保持不变的假设。第三，我们运用职业方法来衡量绿色就业（使用O*NET框架），量化了2011年至2022年24个欧洲国家的绿色就业。分析表明，根据这种方法，这一时期欧洲几乎没有创造新的绿色就业机会。此外，我们发现绿色工作的存在与几个总体和部门环境指标之间没有相关性。这些发现反映了职业方法在理论和方法上的缺陷，削弱了其在捕捉绿色转型对劳动力市场影响方面的有效性。应考虑以绿色经济产出和过程为重点的绿色就业替代措施。

{"title":"The grey shades of green jobs: Unpacking the occupational approach to green employment","authors":"Davide Villani, Enrique Fernández-Macías, Ignacio González-Vázquez, Vesna Oshafi","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108833","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108833","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The green transition is expected to reshape labor markets, yet measuring its employment impact remains uncertain. This paper provides a detailed discussion of the occupational approach (derived from task-based measures) for estimating green employment, the most widespread framework among academics and institutions. First, we highlight the theoretical flaws of the occupational approach, noting that its reliance on occupational titles leads to false positives and excludes essential contributors to the green transition, resulting in false negatives. Second, we discuss the methodological problems of this approach, including inconsistent categorisations, outdated classifications, and the assumption that the content of occupations remains constant across time and countries. Third, we operationalise the occupational approach to measure green employment (using the O*NET framework), quantifying green employment in 24 European countries between 2011 and 2022. The analysis shows that, according to this approach, virtually no new green jobs were created in Europe in this period. Furthermore, we find no correlation between the presence of green jobs and several aggregate and sectoral environmental indicators. These findings reflect the theoretical and methodological flaws in the occupational approach, undermining its effectiveness in capturing the labour market impact of the green transition. Alternative measures of green employment focused on green economic outputs and processes should be considered.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 108833"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145363713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Outsourcing decarbonization? How trade shaped France’s carbon footprint (2000–14) 外包脱碳吗?贸易如何影响法国的碳足迹（2000 - 2014）

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108814

Pierre Cotterlaz , Christophe Gouel

This study investigates the evolution of France’s carbon footprint from 2000 to 2014, with a particular focus on the role of international trade. During this period, France’s territorial emissions decreased by 18%, yet its consumption-based footprint declined by only 5%. This divergence reflects an increase in emissions embedded in imports, which grew from 45% to 54% of the total. To analyze these dynamics, we develop a novel structural decomposition framework that disentangles the contributions of scale, composition, and technique effects from a consumption perspective. Our approach extends existing methods by explicitly distinguishing between domestic and foreign influences, and by separately analyzing trade openness and the geographic reallocation of imports. The results highlight the dominance of the technique effect in reducing emissions (

- 28 %

), driven primarily by efficiency improvements abroad rather than domestic progress. By contrast, the geographic composition effect substantially increased emissions (+18%), particularly before 2008, when France’s import sourcing shifted toward more carbon-intensive trading partners such as China. France’s situation is emblematic of economies that have already achieved relatively low domestic emissions—through nuclear energy and de-industrialization—and have thus become increasingly dependent on foreign improvements for further reductions. This reliance raises concerns about the externalization of mitigation outcomes and underscores the limits of climate strategies focused solely on territorial emissions. Our findings call for stronger coordination between trade and climate policies to ensure that future decarbonization pathways remain consistent with global mitigation objectives.

本研究调查了2000年至2014年法国碳足迹的演变，特别关注国际贸易的作用。在此期间，法国的领土排放量下降了18%，但其消费足迹仅下降了5%。这种差异反映了进口所包含的排放量的增加，从占总量的45%增加到54%。为了分析这些动态，我们开发了一个新的结构分解框架，从消费的角度解开规模、组成和技术效应的贡献。我们的方法扩展了现有的方法，明确区分了国内和国外的影响，并分别分析了贸易开放程度和进口的地理再分配。结果显示，技术效应在减排方面占主导地位（- 28%），主要受国外效率提高而非国内进步的推动。相比之下，地理构成效应大幅增加了排放量（+18%），特别是在2008年之前，当时法国的进口来源转向中国等碳密集程度更高的贸易伙伴。法国的情况是已经通过核能和去工业化实现了相对较低的国内排放的经济体的象征，因此越来越依赖于国外的改进来进一步减少排放。这种依赖引起了人们对减缓成果外部化的担忧，并突出了气候战略仅侧重于地区排放的局限性。我们的研究结果呼吁加强贸易和气候政策之间的协调，以确保未来的脱碳途径与全球减缓目标保持一致。

{"title":"Outsourcing decarbonization? How trade shaped France’s carbon footprint (2000–14)","authors":"Pierre Cotterlaz , Christophe Gouel","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108814","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108814","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the evolution of France’s carbon footprint from 2000 to 2014, with a particular focus on the role of international trade. During this period, France’s territorial emissions decreased by 18%, yet its consumption-based footprint declined by only 5%. This divergence reflects an increase in emissions embedded in imports, which grew from 45% to 54% of the total. To analyze these dynamics, we develop a novel structural decomposition framework that disentangles the contributions of scale, composition, and technique effects from a consumption perspective. Our approach extends existing methods by explicitly distinguishing between domestic and foreign influences, and by separately analyzing trade openness and the geographic reallocation of imports. The results highlight the dominance of the technique effect in reducing emissions (<span><math><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>28</mn><mtext>%</mtext></mrow></math></span>), driven primarily by efficiency improvements abroad rather than domestic progress. By contrast, the geographic composition effect substantially increased emissions (+18%), particularly before 2008, when France’s import sourcing shifted toward more carbon-intensive trading partners such as China. France’s situation is emblematic of economies that have already achieved relatively low domestic emissions—through nuclear energy and de-industrialization—and have thus become increasingly dependent on foreign improvements for further reductions. This reliance raises concerns about the externalization of mitigation outcomes and underscores the limits of climate strategies focused solely on territorial emissions. Our findings call for stronger coordination between trade and climate policies to ensure that future decarbonization pathways remain consistent with global mitigation objectives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 108814"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145269055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bridging climate and social equity: Progressive carbon tax simulations for Belgium 弥合气候和社会公平：比利时累进碳税模拟

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108803

Floore Bursens , Silvia De Poli , Sofia Maier , Gerlinde Verbist

This paper explores the distributive impact of a hypothetical carbon tax on households' transport and energy consumption in Belgium. It focuses on the welfare effects across population groups and along the income distribution, as well as on the expected budgetary and environmental effects, accounting for consumer responses under a partial equilibrium microsimulation framework. Given the well-known regressive features of consumption taxes in general, and of energy- or carbon-related taxes in particular, this study evaluates various scenarios for making the carbon tax more progressive and assesses how these methods affect the overall distributional outcomes and reduce emissions. Our results show that it is very difficult to offset the regressivity by changing the carbon tax design. The tax design scenario that has the smallest negative inequality effect and reduces GHG emissions the most, is the one that differentiates the tax on the basis of product category, and more specifically by taxing the most elastic product, which is transport. We also discuss the feasibility of the tax design scenarios, indicating that practical implementation and acceptability issues require careful consideration when designing and introducing the tax.

本文探讨了假设的碳税对比利时家庭交通和能源消费的分配影响。它侧重于各人口群体和收入分配的福利影响，以及预期的预算和环境影响，在部分均衡微观模拟框架下考虑消费者的反应。考虑到众所周知的消费税，特别是与能源或碳相关的税的累退特征，本研究评估了使碳税更累进的各种方案，并评估了这些方法如何影响总体分配结果和减少排放。我们的研究结果表明，通过改变碳税设计来抵消累退性是非常困难的。负不平等效应最小、减少温室气体排放最多的税收设计方案，是根据产品类别区分税收，更具体地说，是对最具弹性的产品征税，也就是运输。我们还讨论了税收设计方案的可行性，表明在设计和引入税收时需要仔细考虑实际实施和可接受性问题。

{"title":"Bridging climate and social equity: Progressive carbon tax simulations for Belgium","authors":"Floore Bursens , Silvia De Poli , Sofia Maier , Gerlinde Verbist","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108803","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108803","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the distributive impact of a hypothetical carbon tax on households' transport and energy consumption in Belgium. It focuses on the welfare effects across population groups and along the income distribution, as well as on the expected budgetary and environmental effects, accounting for consumer responses under a partial equilibrium microsimulation framework. Given the well-known regressive features of consumption taxes in general, and of energy- or carbon-related taxes in particular, this study evaluates various scenarios for making the carbon tax more progressive and assesses how these methods affect the overall distributional outcomes and reduce emissions. Our results show that it is very difficult to offset the regressivity by changing the carbon tax design. The tax design scenario that has the smallest negative inequality effect and reduces GHG emissions the most, is the one that differentiates the tax on the basis of product category, and more specifically by taxing the most elastic product, which is transport. We also discuss the feasibility of the tax design scenarios, indicating that practical implementation and acceptability issues require careful consideration when designing and introducing the tax.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 108803"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145261753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0