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Violence and Children’s Education: Evidence From Administrative Data 暴力与儿童教育:来自行政数据的证据
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-21 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231180114
Valentina Duque
This paper exploits the sharp escalation of violence in Colombia in the 1980s associated with the emergence of drug cartels to provide novel evidence on the long-run effects of violence exposure throughout the life-course, on children’s educational attainment and academic achievement using administrative data. I find that, a higher homicide rate in early-childhood is associated with a higher probability of school dropout and conditional on completing high school, lower scores on a national end-of-high school exam. Results are robust to several falsification tests, and analyses of potential sources of selection bias. I provide supportive evidence that changes in fetal, child, and adolescent health outcomes are important potential mechanisms.
本文利用哥伦比亚在20世纪80年代与贩毒集团的出现相关的暴力急剧升级,为暴力暴露在整个生命过程中的长期影响提供了新的证据,对儿童的教育成就和学术成就使用行政数据。我发现,儿童早期较高的谋杀率与较高的辍学概率有关,并且以完成高中学业为条件,在全国高中毕业考试中得分较低。结果是稳健的几个证伪检验和分析的潜在来源的选择偏差。我提供支持性证据表明,胎儿、儿童和青少年健康结果的变化是重要的潜在机制。
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引用次数: 1
Do Failed or Weak States Favor Resident Terrorist Groups’ Survival? 失败或弱小的国家是否有利于恐怖组织的生存?
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-13 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231183939
Khusrav Gaibulloev, James A. Piazza, T. Sandler
Employing two alternative measures of state failure, we investigate how state weakness influences resident terrorist groups’ survival. Theoretically, state failure favors resident terrorist groups’ survival, while state territorial control fosters resident groups’ termination until some control threshold. Empirically, we uncover a robust negative relationship between a country’s weakness and its control of terrorism through the lens of the resident terrorist groups’ survival prospects. The discovered relationship withstands a host of robustness tests – e.g., alternative estimates and samples. We apply an instrument designed to address endogeneity concerns. In particular, our novel instrument for failed states consists of the interaction between natural disasters and ethnic fractionalization. As a state’s percentage of territorial control increases, resident terrorist groups are more prone to ending until some threshold control percent. Our analysis can guide counterterrorism policy by exploiting the nuanced theoretical determinants identified here that foster resident groups’ termination in failing states.
采用两种国家失败的替代衡量标准,我们研究了国家软弱如何影响常驻恐怖组织的生存。从理论上讲,国家的失败有利于常驻恐怖组织的生存,而国家的领土控制则促使常驻恐怖组织终止,直到达到一定的控制阈值。从经验上讲,我们通过常驻恐怖组织的生存前景,揭示了一个国家的弱点与其对恐怖主义的控制之间的强烈负面关系。所发现的关系经受住了一系列稳健性测试,例如替代估计和样本。我们采用了一种旨在解决内生性问题的工具。特别是,我们针对失败国家的新工具包括自然灾害和种族分裂之间的互动。随着一个州的领土控制百分比的增加,常驻恐怖组织更容易结束,直到达到控制百分比的阈值。我们的分析可以通过利用这里确定的微妙的理论决定因素来指导反恐政策,这些理论决定因素助长了居民团体在失败国家的终结。
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引用次数: 0
When Does Security Cooperation Increase Foreign Aid Allocation? 安全合作何时增加对外援助分配?
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-13 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231183945
Qi Zhang
While many scholars find that security cooperation increases the foreign aid that allies receive from a major power, other studies show that an alliance also has negative effect and its terms can change over time. This article argues that a donor’s security environment impacts its participation in security cooperation and, subsequently, foreign aid allocation to allies. When the security environment is competitive, a donor will concentrate its resources on strengthening its ties with allies. In contrast, when the environment is favorable to a donor, it can use security cooperation as leverage to obtain policy concessions from allies, thus reducing its own foreign aid expenditures. This paper analyzes the aid allocation of three major power donors as well as 72 formal defense pacts and 70 bilateral defense cooperation agreements, and it finds that a favorable security environment allows a donor to reduce its economic contribution to its allies by 19 percent.
虽然许多学者发现,安全合作增加了盟国从一个大国获得的外援,但其他研究表明,联盟也有负面影响,其条款可能随着时间的推移而变化。本文认为,捐助国的安全环境影响其参与安全合作,进而影响其对盟国的对外援助分配。当安全环境具有竞争性时,捐助国将把资源集中在加强与盟国的关系上。相反,当环境对援助国有利时,援助国可以利用安全合作作为杠杆,获得盟国的政策让步,从而减少自己的对外援助支出。本文分析了三个主要捐助国以及72个正式防务协定和70个双边防务合作协定的援助分配情况,发现有利的安全环境允许捐助国将其对盟国的经济贡献减少19%。
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引用次数: 0
A Slow-Rolling Disaster: Assessing the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Militant Violence 一场缓慢的灾难:评估新冠肺炎大流行对军事暴力的影响
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-06 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231180101
Robert A. Pape, C. Price
Despite alarming predications about the Covid 19 pandemic that appear to fit the literature on the impact of natural disasters on civil wars, there are reasons to be suspicious that a rise in militant violence would likely occur quickly or uniformly. Although the COVID-19 pandemic is most definitely a disaster that caught the world by surprise, this “slow-rolling” shock differs in important ways from the more commonly studied acute onset natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis that often increase violent competition among groups for scarce resources. Instead, the effects of slow-rolling disasters unfold in phases that, at least in the short run, are likely to encourage a period of relative decline in violence, as actors try and assess the effects of COVID-19 on their organization and their opponents. Both statistical and qualitative evidence from the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic supports the initial phases of our theory.
尽管关于新冠肺炎19大流行的令人担忧的预测似乎符合关于自然灾害对内战影响的文献,但有理由怀疑武装暴力的上升可能会迅速或一致地发生。尽管新冠肺炎大流行无疑是一场令世界震惊的灾难,但这种“缓慢”的冲击在重要方面与地震、飓风和海啸等更常见的急性自然灾害不同,这些灾害往往会加剧群体之间争夺稀缺资源的激烈竞争。相反,随着行为者试图评估新冠肺炎对其组织和对手的影响,缓慢发生的灾难的影响分阶段展开,至少在短期内,可能会鼓励暴力相对减少一段时间。新冠肺炎大流行最初几个月的统计和定性证据都支持我们理论的最初阶段。
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引用次数: 1
Virtual Immersive Contact: A Field Experiment to Reduce Prejudice and Discrimination in Central African Republic 虚拟沉浸式接触:减少中非共和国偏见和歧视的实地实验
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-06 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231180098
Lindsay Branham
This present research explores a progressive repurposing of Virtual Reality technology, Virtual Immersive Contact (VIC), in a real-world setting to; explore viability to reduce prejudice and investigate the role of empathy in motivating prosocial behavior. The study employed a between-subjects repeated-measures experimental design of a randomized sample ( n = 113) split into two conditions to reduce prejudice and discrimination in the active conflict area of the Central African Republic (CAR). In line with the study’s hypotheses, VIC produced a significant increase in empathic concern for the Muslim outgroup and intentions to donate to a Muslim family, while also showing that the relationship between empathy and helping behaviours was mostly explained by confounding variables. This research provides both the first evidence of its kind that VIC could be a new form of fostering positive intergroup contact in an active conflict setting, crating a new facet of intergroup contact theory, and further evolving the literature on the empathy, prosocial behaviour relationship.
本研究探讨了虚拟现实技术的逐步再利用,虚拟沉浸式接触(VIC),在现实世界的设置;探讨减少偏见的可行性,探讨共情在促进亲社会行为中的作用。该研究采用受试者间重复测量实验设计,将随机样本(n = 113)分为两组,以减少中非共和国(CAR)冲突地区的偏见和歧视。与研究的假设一致,VIC对穆斯林外群体的共情关注和向穆斯林家庭捐款的意图显著增加,同时也表明共情和帮助行为之间的关系主要是由混杂变量来解释的。本研究首次证明,在积极的冲突环境中,VIC可能是一种促进积极群体间接触的新形式,创造了群体间接触理论的一个新方面,并进一步发展了关于共情、亲社会行为关系的文献。
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引用次数: 0
Contestation, Governance, and the Production of Violence Against Civilians: Coercive Political Order in Rural Colombia 争论、治理和针对平民的暴力的产生:哥伦比亚农村的强制性政治秩序
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-04 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231177591
Andrés F. Aponte González, Danny Hirschel-Burns, Andres D Uribe
What explains civilian victimization during civil war? Existing scholarship claims that violence against civilians is driven primarily by competition between armed actors. We argue that this explanation neglects a crucial cause of civilian victimization: in communities they rule, armed groups employ systematic violence against civilians to establish and sustain social order. Drawing on original microlevel quantitative data from Colombia, we show that areas controlled by a sole armed actor experience high levels of victimization, while places where multiple actors jointly govern exhibit significantly less violence. To explain this pattern, we draw on evidence from original interviews, focus groups, and secondary sources. We show that armed groups employ violence to govern areas they control and enact social order. But this violence is checked when multiple groups rule jointly: the factors that sustain pacted rule disincentivize victimization. These results have implications for theories of political order, violence, and governance by non-state actors.
内战期间平民受害的原因是什么?现有学者声称,针对平民的暴力行为主要是由武装行为者之间的竞争驱动的。我们认为,这种解释忽略了平民受害的一个关键原因:在他们统治的社区,武装团体对平民使用系统性暴力来建立和维持社会秩序。根据哥伦比亚的原始微观定量数据,我们发现,由单一武装行为者控制的地区受害程度很高,而由多个行为者共同治理的地方暴力行为明显较少。为了解释这种模式,我们从原始访谈、焦点小组和次要来源中获取证据。我们表明,武装团体使用暴力来管理他们控制的地区并建立社会秩序。但当多个群体共同统治时,这种暴力行为就会得到遏制:维持既定规则的因素会抑制受害。这些结果对政治秩序、暴力和非国家行为者治理的理论具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 2
Preventing Coups and Seeking Allies: The Demand and Supply of Alliances for Coup-Proofing Regimes 防止政变和寻求盟友:防止政变政权联盟的需求和供应
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231179100
Andrew C. McWard, Hohyun Yoon
Prevailing accounts of alliance formation emphasize either external threats or domestic politics, without an explicit consideration of how the two factors might interact. Instead, this paper theorizes about a specific type of interaction: coup-prevention strategies in nondemocratic regimes and external threats. Through quantitative analyses using the Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions (ATOP) and the State Security Forces (SSF) data, we find that “coup-proofing” reduces the probability of alliance formation when potential allies are under high external threat and that this effect is driven by the coup-proofing regime’s reduced capability to defend their allies, rather than the regime’s increased vulnerability to aggression. Furthermore, we find evidence for the interactive relationship at the negotiation stage of alliance formation. Upon entering an alliance, a coup-proofing regime facing a higher level of external threat offers more policy concessions to the ally, whereas an ally under higher threat could make fewer concessions to the coup-proofing regime. Our study highlights the way nondemocratic domestic political institutions can interact with external threat to shape states’ alliance behavior.
关于联盟形成的主流说法要么强调外部威胁,要么强调国内政治,而没有明确考虑这两个因素可能如何相互作用。相反,本文对一种特定类型的互动进行了理论化:非民主政权和外部威胁的政变预防策略。通过使用联盟条约义务和条款(ATOP)和国家安全部队(SSF)数据的定量分析,我们发现,当潜在盟友受到高度外部威胁时,“防政变”降低了联盟形成的可能性,而这种影响是由防政变政权保护盟友的能力降低所驱动的,而不是该政权对侵略的脆弱性增加。此外,我们还发现了联盟形成谈判阶段的互动关系。在加入联盟时,面临较高外部威胁的防政变政权会对盟友做出更多的政策让步,而面临较高外部威胁的盟友则会对防政变政权做出更少的让步。我们的研究强调了非民主的国内政治制度可以与外部威胁相互作用,从而塑造国家的联盟行为。
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引用次数: 0
Capture the Fort: Explaining the Timing of Rebel Assaults on Cities During Wartime 占领堡垒:解释战时叛军袭击城市的时机
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-28 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231176232
Gary Uzonyi, B. W. Reeder
Rebels that fight near or capture cities gain more concessions from the government than those that remain in the periphery. Yet, not all groups challenge urban centers. Previous scholarship expects rebel strength to explain this strategic decision. However, weak rebel groups challenge cities, too. Our approach focuses on the conflict process more broadly. We argue that as the network of rebels challenging the government increases, opposition groups become more likely to attack cities as either they become emboldened, given the government’s disadvantage in multi-front wars, or they are propelled to strategic and resource centers in competition with the other groups. Statistical analysis of all African conflicts from 1989-2009 strongly supports this logic, while an exploration of most typical cases highlights each of these mechanisms in practice. This project thus links literature on civil war tactics and conflict contagion.
在城市附近作战或占领城市的反对派比留在城市外围的反对派从政府那里获得更多让步。然而,并非所有群体都挑战城市中心。以前的学者期望反叛力量来解释这一战略决策。然而,弱小的反叛组织也在挑战城市。我们的方法侧重于更广泛的冲突过程。我们认为,随着挑战政府的叛军网络的增加,反对派组织更有可能攻击城市,因为他们变得更加大胆,因为政府在多线战争中处于劣势,或者他们被推向战略和资源中心,与其他组织竞争。对1989-2009年所有非洲冲突的统计分析有力地支持了这一逻辑,而对大多数典型案例的探索则突出了实践中的每一种机制。因此,这个项目将内战战术和冲突传染的文献联系起来。
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引用次数: 0
Repression and Dissent: How Tit-for-Tat Leads to Violent and Nonviolent Resistance 镇压与异议:泰特的头衔如何导致暴力和非暴力抵抗
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-27 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231179102
Stephanie Dornschneider-Elkink, N. Henderson
Much research examines the state-dissident nexus by large-n studies and rational choice theories. This article contributes an analysis of dissident reasoning through a computational evaluation of ethnographic interviews. The analysis shows that dissident decision-making is based on tit-for-tat deliberations: Dissidents choose violent means primarily in response to violent repression, and nonviolent means in response to nonviolent repression. Ordinary citizens not participating in dissent consider positive state behavior or safety concerns instead. Consistent with arguments that state-dissident interactions are reciprocal, these findings reveal unexpected cognitive similarities between political dissent and cooperation, which is often associated with tit-for-tat deliberations. They also show the importance of state repression compared with other motivators of dissent, including perceived relative deprivation and social contagion. The findings identify heuristic patterns of reasoning which suggest that dissidents may be more open to change and, ultimately, cooperation with state authorities than what is argued by repressive states.
许多研究通过大样本研究和理性选择理论来考察国家与异见者之间的关系。本文通过对民族志访谈的计算评估,对持不同政见者的推理进行了分析。分析表明,持不同政见者的决策是基于针锋相对的考虑:持不同政见的人选择暴力手段主要是为了应对暴力镇压,而非暴力手段则是为了应对非暴力镇压。不参与异议的普通公民会考虑积极的国家行为或安全问题。这些发现与国家与异见人士的互动是相互的观点一致,揭示了政治异见与合作之间意想不到的认知相似性,而这往往与针锋相对的审议有关。它们还表明,与其他持不同政见的动机相比,国家镇压的重要性,包括感知到的相对剥夺和社会传染。研究结果确定了启发式推理模式,这表明持不同政见者可能比专制国家更愿意改变,并最终与国家当局合作。
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引用次数: 1
Public Reactions to Secret Negotiations in International Politics 公众对国际政治秘密谈判的反应
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231177592
Rachel Myrick
Many international agreements, from routine trade deals to high-stakes nuclear agreements, are negotiated in secret. However, we have a limited understanding of how secrecy in a negotiation shapes attitudes towards the agreement. Public opinion matters because it informs government decisions about when to conceal or reveal information during a negotiation. In a survey experiment of U.S. adults, I first examine overall attitudes towards secrecy in security and economic agreements. I then randomize government justifications for negotiating in secret: improved success, protection of sensitive information, and anticipation of criticism from domestic and international opponents. I find that respondents are generally averse to secrecy in international negotiations, but there are justifications for its use that they perceive as more legitimate. Secrecy is more permissible when negotiations contain sensitive information or when it improves the likelihood that agreements are reached. It is less permissible when governments negotiate in secret to avoid domestic criticism.
从常规贸易协议到高风险核协议,许多国际协议都是秘密谈判达成的。然而,我们对谈判中的保密性如何影响对协议的态度了解有限。公众舆论之所以重要,是因为它为政府在谈判中何时隐瞒或披露信息提供了信息。在一项针对美国成年人的调查实验中,我首先考察了对安全和经济协议保密的总体态度。然后,我随机列出政府秘密谈判的理由:提高成功率、保护敏感信息,以及预计会受到国内外反对者的批评。我发现,受访者普遍反对在国际谈判中保密,但他们认为使用保密是有正当理由的。当谈判包含敏感信息或提高达成协议的可能性时,保密是更允许的。当政府秘密谈判以避免国内批评时,这是不太允许的。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Conflict Resolution
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