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Central Bankers as Migrating Birds: How Inflation Shapes the Rhetorical Strategies of Doves and Hawks 中央银行家是候鸟:通货膨胀如何塑造鸽派和鹰派的修辞策略
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-31 DOI: 10.1111/jcms.70017
Jérôme Deyris, Bart Stellinga, Matthias Thiemann

The Eurosystem is built on a compelling promise: shielded from national politics, ECB Governing Council members would be better positioned to deploy their science-based expertise. Far from embodying this ideal, scholars have documented central bankers' opportunistic engagement with the ideas underpinning monetary policy. Whilst studies have often attributed this to reputation management strategies, we show how deeply entrenched national preferences – whether hawkish or dovish – shape how central bankers frame inflationary developments and prescribe policy solutions. Based on a quantitative and qualitative study of Eurozone central bank governors' speeches from 2014 to 2023, we reveal patterns of selective engagement with economic data, strategic scepticism regarding theories and indicators and weaponised uncertainty to support or cast doubt on monetary policy action. Crucially, these rhetorical strategies are leveraged conditionally on the inflation season, leading doves and hawks to act as migrating birds, embracing the other camp's position when economic circumstances change. Casting further doubt upon the proclaimed science-based neutrality of central bankers, our study shows that central bank speeches should not be merely studied as reflections of policy learning or as instruments of reputation management but also as rhetorical tools to achieve national policy preferences.

欧元体系建立在一个令人信服的承诺之上:不受国家政治的影响,欧洲央行管理委员会(ECB Governing Council)成员将更有能力运用他们基于科学的专业知识。学者们非但没有体现这一理想,反而记录了央行官员对支撑货币政策的理念的机会主义参与。虽然研究通常将其归因于声誉管理策略,但我们展示了根深蒂固的国家偏好——无论是鹰派还是鸽派——如何影响央行官员如何制定通胀发展和制定政策解决方案。基于对2014年至2023年欧元区央行行长演讲的定量和定性研究,我们揭示了选择性参与经济数据的模式,对理论和指标的战略怀疑以及将不确定性武器化以支持或怀疑货币政策行动。至关重要的是,这些修辞策略是有条件地依赖于通胀季节,导致鸽派和鹰派充当候鸟,在经济环境发生变化时接受另一方的立场。我们的研究进一步质疑央行行长宣称的基于科学的中立性,表明央行的讲话不应仅仅作为政策学习的反映或声誉管理的工具来研究,还应作为实现国家政策偏好的修辞工具。
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引用次数: 0
Nationalism and War in the 21st-Century Europe 21世纪欧洲的民族主义与战争
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1111/jcms.70027
Siniša Malešević
<p>Since the end of WWII, many analysts were adamant that Europe is a continent of peace and geopolitical stability. The influential authors were arguing that warfare is experiencing a historical decline and that many forms of organised violence belong to the dustbin of European history. The leading scholars of organised violence tended to focus on civil wars, revolutions and insurgencies on other continents. The dominant view was that Europe is unlikely to face a major interstate war.</p><p>A very similar stance was expressed in relation to nationalism. For many scholars, this ideology has reached its peak in the 19th century; since then, its influence has been on the wane. In this context, much of the contemporary sociological scholarship has focused on the significance of globalisation, individualism, cosmopolitanism and consumerism, all of which were understood to be more relevant for 21st-century Europe than nationalism.</p><p>Nevertheless, such ahistorical and present-centric interpretations fly in the face of a much more complex European historical record. To better understand the social dynamics of war and nationalism and their historical trajectories, it is crucial to explore these two phenomena in a <i>longue durée</i> mode. In this article, I aim to show that the return of inter-state warfare in Europe, together with the greater visibility of nationalism, can be explained using the analytical tools of comparative historical sociology. By zooming in on the long-term coercive-organisational, ideological and micro-interactional processes of nationalist grounding, one can trace the relatively continuous rise of nationalism in Europe. Similarly, by analysing the key structural and societal historical conditions in Europe, it is possible to see that organised violence has not experienced a decline but has, in fact, increased in modernity.</p><p>The first part of the article provides a brief analysis of European nationalisms over the last three centuries. I aim to show that rather than appearing as <i>deus ex machina</i> in the 21st century, this phenomenon has been gradually developing, expanding and penetrating different areas of social life.</p><p>In the second part of the article, I briefly explore the transformation of organised violence in Europe. I look at the centrality of warfare in European history and point to the continuous significance of force in the social development of this continent. The last section brings the two phenomena together and indicates under which conditions nationalism becomes virulent.</p><p>In the conventional understanding, nationalism is often perceived to be a phenomenon that reached its peak in the late 19th century. The traditional historiography regularly depicts this period as the ‘springtime of nations’ and associates nationalism mostly with the anti-imperial projects and the movements of national unification. Thus, the collapse of the Ottoman, Habsburg and Romanov empires is often attributed to the ri
自二战结束以来,许多分析人士坚定地认为,欧洲是一个和平和地缘政治稳定的大陆。这些有影响力的作者认为,战争正在经历历史性的衰落,许多形式的有组织暴力属于欧洲历史的垃圾箱。研究有组织暴力的主要学者倾向于关注其他大洲的内战、革命和叛乱。主流观点是,欧洲不太可能面临一场大规模的国家间战争。在民族主义问题上也表达了非常相似的立场。对许多学者来说,这种意识形态在19世纪达到了顶峰;从那时起,它的影响力就逐渐减弱。在这种背景下,许多当代社会学学术都集中在全球化、个人主义、世界主义和消费主义的意义上,所有这些都被认为比民族主义更适合21世纪的欧洲。然而,这种非历史的、以现在为中心的解释与更为复杂的欧洲历史记录背道而驰。为了更好地理解战争和民族主义的社会动态及其历史轨迹,在长期的时间尺度模式下探索这两种现象至关重要。在这篇文章中,我的目的是表明,可以用比较历史社会学的分析工具来解释欧洲国家间战争的回归,以及民族主义的更大可见性。通过放大民族主义基础的长期强制性组织、意识形态和微观互动过程,人们可以追溯民族主义在欧洲相对持续的兴起。同样,通过分析欧洲的关键结构和社会历史条件,我们可以看到,有组织的暴力并没有减少,事实上,在现代性中有所增加。文章的第一部分简要分析了过去三个世纪以来欧洲的民族主义。我想要展示的是,这种现象并不是在21世纪出现的,而是在逐渐发展、扩展和渗透到社会生活的不同领域。在文章的第二部分,我简要探讨了欧洲有组织暴力的转变。我着眼于战争在欧洲历史上的中心地位,并指出武力在欧洲大陆社会发展中的持续重要性。最后一部分将这两种现象结合在一起,并指出在何种条件下民族主义变得恶毒。在传统的理解中,民族主义通常被认为是在19世纪末达到顶峰的一种现象。传统史学经常将这一时期描述为“国家的春天”,并将民族主义与反帝国主义项目和国家统一运动联系起来。因此,奥斯曼帝国、哈布斯堡帝国和罗曼诺夫帝国的崩溃通常被归因于欧洲“小民族”中民族意识的崛起,他们决心摧毁帝国的“国家监狱”,建立自己的独立主权民族国家(Hroch, 2015; Kumar, 2017)。同样,德国和意大利的统一通常被描述为“迟来的”,被认为是欧洲国家形成过程中的顶峰。尽管许多分析人士承认民族主义在两次世界大战中发挥了重要作用,但这些暴力冲突的原因通常归因于其他因素,包括不断变化的权力动态、资本主义危机和阶级政治、地缘政治转型或特定统治者的动机。在二战后的欧洲,民族主义通常被边缘化,被认为是一种与欧洲大陆边缘地区——巴斯克地区、加泰罗尼亚、北爱尔兰、佛兰德斯或巴尔干地区——的分离主义运动有关的现象。从上世纪90年代到2010年代,随着经济全球化的加剧,民族主义普遍被视为过去时代的遗物。包括乌尔里希·贝克(Ulrich Beck)、安东尼·吉登斯(Anthony Giddens)和齐格蒙特·鲍曼(Zygmunt Bauman)在内的主要社会理论家都宣布了它不可避免的死亡。对于吉登斯(2013,第65页)来说,“全球化社会关系的发展可能会减少民族主义情感的某些方面”……“在加速全球化的情况下,民族国家已经变得‘对于生活中的大问题来说太小了,对于生活中的小问题来说又太大了’”。同样,Beck(2006)坚持认为全球化促进了个人主义,其中“民族国家计划”正在被“世界主义计划”所取代。在鲍曼(2002,第84页)的观点中,消费主义扼杀了所有形式的集体依恋,因此,“国家建设加上爱国动员已经不再是社会整合的主要工具”。 尽管普京在许多演讲中提到了来自西方的地缘政治威胁和对北约向东扩张的批评,但他强调民族主义的理由至关重要。例如,在2022年入侵之后的演讲中,普京用以下术语描述了这场战争:“这次行动的目的是保护那些八年来一直面临基辅政权所犯下的羞辱和种族灭绝的人民……为此,我们将寻求使乌克兰非军事化和去纳粹化,并将那些对平民犯下无数血腥罪行的人绳之以法,包括对俄罗斯联邦公民”(Triesman, 2022)。因此,这里的措辞主要集中在“保护我们的人民”上。毫无疑问,俄罗斯民族主义将新帝国主义的比喻与苏联军事怀旧和一些种族主义话语结合在一起。然而,所有这些观点都融入了更广泛的民族主义叙事。乌克兰战争也非常明显地表明,民族主义是一种高度可塑性的意识形态力量,可以适应各种政治和军事计划。因此,民族主义是一种强有力的意识形态粘合剂,可以动员数百万人为保卫乌克兰而战或提供支持。没有任何其他意识形态项目能够产生这样一种社会团结和跨阶级团结的感觉。与此同时,俄罗斯政府利用民族主义言论,使其军事入侵合法化,并在俄罗斯国内保持一定程度的公众支持。因此,民族主义的思想和做法同样可以用来促进进攻战争和防御战争。由于民族主义的习惯渗透到日常生活的许多方面,它不可避免地在战争时期变得如此明显和突出。显然,这并不意味着民族主义本质上是暴力和战争倾向的。相反,只有在特定的地缘政治条件下,民族主义才能成功地与战争融合在一起。这里的关键问题是,由于民族主义和有组织暴力的结构性条件在现代性中不断增加,一旦它们结合在一起,后果可能是极具破坏性的。然而,由于大多数民族主义并不暴力,而是习惯性的、不引人注目的,而且有组织的暴力可能仍在国家控制之下,因此民族主义的暴力升级并非不可避免。在这方面,欧洲大陆拥有世界其他地区所缺乏的组织优势。欧盟强大的制度结构最初是为了防止成员国之间的战争而建立的,它可以成功地用于避免外部军事威胁。欧盟不只是专注于增加国家军事预算和扩大单个民族国家的武装力量,它处于一个相对独特的位置,可以分享其巨大的物质、组织、技术和其他资源,以投射比其任何组成部分都强大得多的防御力量。因此,与其促进军事动员、大规模制造武器和建立庞大的国家军队,不如建立和维持一个强有力的、共同的欧洲防务体系更为有效。通过这种方式,欧盟将不会依赖其他国家,同时也将避免以国家为中心的安全体系所导致的社会永久军事化。虽然国家层面的军事动员可能导致激进民族主义的发展和扩散,但资源、服务、思想和人员的共享汇集不太可能产生以国家为中心的欧洲社会军事化。通过投射这种军事力量,欧洲可以转移外部威胁,还可以避免平庸的民族主义转变为恶毒的民族主义。自第二次世界大战结束以来,欧洲大陆通常与前所未有的政治稳定、经济繁荣、社会安全与和平联系在一起(Hobsbawm, 1994)。然而,最近的社会、经济和政治变化,包括民粹主义、本土主义和反移民运动的兴起,以及社会经济差距的扩大,都使人们对欧洲的未来产生了严重的怀疑。乌克兰战争也标志着欧洲和平的终结,以及整个欧洲大陆军事化的回归。由于许多学者未能预见到这些发展,因此分析民族主义和有组织暴力在欧洲历史上所扮演的角色是很重要的。在这篇文章中,我试图表明,使用比较历史社会学的长时间跨度镜头可以帮助我们理解欧洲战争和民族主义的轨迹。与将有组织的暴力和民族主义置于欧洲过去的流行说法相反,我强调它们在现代性晚期的持续相关性。 为了有效地理解和应对欧洲当前的政治、社会和军事发展,必须采取一种将这些历史模式置于背景下的长期视角。 因此,主流观点一致认为,民族主义是一种现象,在19世纪后期达到顶峰,此后一直在经历持续衰退。在这种背景下,本土主义、民粹主义、反移民、保护主义和种族主义运动和政党的激增,其中许
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引用次数: 0
Entangled Trajectories: The 2024 Electoral Year in Bulgaria and Romania 纠缠轨迹:保加利亚和罗马尼亚的2024年选举年
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1111/jcms.70024
Sorina Soare, Maria Spirova, Claudiu Tufis
<p>In physics, it is well established that when photons strike a smooth mirror surface, they reflect at the same angle, producing an image that is reversed yet structurally identical to the original. A comparable, though more complex, mirroring dynamic can be observed in the 2024 electoral landscapes of Bulgaria and Romania, two states that joined the European Union (EU) in 2007 after prolonged and hesitant transitions from authoritarian rule (Baun <span>2000</span>; Dimitrova <span>2020</span>; Mungiu-Pippidi <span>2015</span>). Their accession was marked by delayed integration and the imposition of the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM), aimed at promoting judicial reform, combating corruption, and addressing organized crime. While the final CVM reports, Bulgaria's in 2019 and Romania's in 2022, formally concluded this chapter of conditionality-based engagement, the mechanism's legacy remains contested (Dimitrov and Plachkova <span>2020</span>).</p><p>In this context, in both countries, the 2024 electoral configurations display reversed yet structurally analogous features. On the eve of the 2024 elections, Romania maintained a relatively institutionalized party system, albeit with the growing influence of far-right actors such as the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), alongside a constellation of smaller yet vocal parties and leaders who mobilized platforms centred on the rejection of mainstream politics, the idealization of the (ethnic) people, and the denunciation of a broad spectrum of perceived cultural, economic, and political threats. Bulgaria, by contrast, had long experienced pronounced party fragmentation and recurring institutional deadlock, often failing to form stable governments.</p><p>On this ground, Bulgaria was widely anticipated to continue along a path of political volatility, with persistent party fragmentation and further electoral cycles. The June 2024 general elections – the fourth since the 2007 enlargement - largely confirmed these expectations: Bulgaria once again failed to produce a viable governing majority, prompting the scheduling of yet another snap election in October that eventually led to complex negotiations and a government coalition in which the majority party remains Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB). In contrast, Romania's 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections were initially expected to reaffirm the dominance of the traditional alliance between the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL), leaving little space for outsider candidates or emerging political movements. However, the surprise victory of Călin Georgescu, an independent candidate advocating nationalist, anti-EU, and pro-Moscow positions, in the first round of the presidential elections shattered Romania's image as a stable political arena and a reliable pro-European member state. The situation escalated when the Romanian Constitutional Court (CCR) annulled the first-round resul
在物理学中,当光子撞击光滑的镜面时,它们以相同的角度反射,产生与原始图像相反但结构相同的图像。在保加利亚和罗马尼亚2024年的选举格局中可以观察到类似的、但更为复杂的镜像动态,这两个国家在经历了漫长而犹豫不决的威权统治转型后,于2007年加入欧盟(Baun 2000; Dimitrova 2020; Mungiu-Pippidi 2015)。这些国家加入后,一体化进程被推迟,并强制实施了旨在促进司法改革、打击腐败和打击有组织犯罪的合作与核查机制(CVM)。尽管保加利亚和罗马尼亚分别于2019年和2022年发布了最终的国别评估报告,正式结束了这一基于条件的接触章节,但该机制的遗留问题仍存在争议(迪米特洛夫和普拉奇科娃,2020年)。在这种背景下,在这两个国家,2024年的选举配置显示出相反但结构上类似的特征。在2024年大选前夕,罗马尼亚维持了一个相对制度化的政党制度,尽管罗马尼亚人联盟(AUR)等极右翼行动者的影响力越来越大,同时还有一群规模较小但直言不讳的政党和领导人,他们动员了以拒绝主流政治为中心的平台,将(少数民族)人民理想化,并谴责广泛的文化、经济和政治威胁。相比之下,保加利亚长期以来经历了明显的政党分裂和反复出现的体制僵局,经常无法组建稳定的政府。基于这一点,人们普遍预期保加利亚将继续沿着政治动荡的道路前进,政党持续分裂,选举周期进一步延长。2024年6月的大选——自2007年欧盟扩大以来的第四次大选——在很大程度上证实了这些预期:保加利亚再一次未能产生一个可行的多数派执政,促使其在10月安排了另一次提前选举,最终导致了复杂的谈判和一个政府联盟,其中多数党仍然是保加利亚欧洲发展公民党(GERB)。相比之下,罗马尼亚2024年的总统和议会选举最初预计将重申社会民主党(PSD)和国家自由党(PNL)之间传统联盟的主导地位,几乎没有给外部候选人或新兴政治运动留下空间。然而,主张民族主义、反欧盟、亲莫斯科立场的独立候选人格奥尔切斯库在第一轮总统选举中出人意料地获胜,打破了罗马尼亚作为稳定政治舞台和可靠的亲欧盟成员国的形象。罗马尼亚宪法法院(CCR)宣布第一轮选举结果无效,理由是解密的情报显示,俄罗斯的虚假信息活动在网上积极推动了乔治斯库的候选资格。一夜之间,罗马尼亚从一个安静、顺从的欧盟成员国变成了欧洲和大西洋两岸关注的焦点。2024年12月的立法选举进一步扰乱了政治格局,两个新的极右翼政党进入议会,将PSD-PNL在众议院的投票份额降至43.0%的后共产主义低点。最终,罗马尼亚和保加利亚的选举结果都显示出惊人的相似之处:反建制情绪加剧,公众对传统政党的信任受到侵蚀,非传统(通常是自成一体的)政治角色的吸引力日益增强。因此,这两个国家在民主代表制的共同危机上展现了不同的道路,凸显了欧盟东部边境更广泛的不确定性。在这两种情况下,对欧洲一体化的承诺变得越来越矛盾。公众对继续支持乌克兰的怀疑情绪正在上升,而传统主义的政纲往往结合亲俄言论,迎合保守价值观,让人想起“让美国再次伟大”(Make America Great Again)的民粹主义话语,以及偶尔出现的民族统一主义主张,正在重塑国内的政治辩论。保加利亚和罗马尼亚以不同的方式反映了彼此的民主挑战,但却朝着民主不稳定的共同轨迹趋同。本文的其余部分结构如下。首先,我们概述了2024年选举组织的社会政治背景。接下来,我们研究选举活动的主题,特别关注与欧盟相关的问题。然后我们展示选举结果。最后一部分总结了这些发展对欧盟政治的更广泛影响。 AUR的立场包含了一种民族主义言论,其核心是恢复民族尊严,团结在家庭、信仰、国家和自由的核心价值观周围,同时呼吁国内和全球和平。同样,青年党(POT)优先考虑青年、家庭和创业,具体承诺投资体育和社会基础设施。SOS罗马尼亚保持了坚定的反欧盟和反北约言论,反映了其坚定的主权主义/极端主义立场。在总统选举第一轮之后,原本相对温和的竞选活动发生了戏剧性的变化,因为争夺乔治库选民基础的竞争加剧,尤其是在极右翼政党之间,而所有政党都重申了他们对传统价值观的承诺,并对欧盟采取了更强硬的立场。受其在政府中的角色和一系列腐败丑闻的影响,主流的社会民主党和民族自由党失去了重要的议会席位,与2020年相比,他们失去了68个众议员和30个参议员席位(斯坦和扎哈里亚2025年)。相比之下,AUR、SOS罗马尼亚和POT获得突出地位,在议会中总共获得32.4%的选票(见表4)。PSD和PNL失去了在参众两院的多数控制权,迫使他们组建一个依赖UDMR和少数民族代表支持的政府,反映出议会格局的分裂和两极分化。在选举之后,罗马尼亚主流政党的结构性危机变得显而易见。PSD, PNL和UDMR总共只获得了众议院43%的选票,比上一轮的60.8%大幅下降。相比之下,由进步的USR和由三个主权主义组成的重新配置的极右翼轴心组成的挑战者政党集团以44.7%的总得票率超过了传统政党,标志着政治忠诚的重大转变。选举的动荡达到了顶峰,标志着曾经相对封闭和稳定的政党制度的崩溃。从区域来看,长期据点开始受到侵蚀:社会民主党在南部和东南部的主导地位以及民族解放阵线在特兰西瓦尼亚和巴纳特的控制减弱,主要原因是在社会经济差距根深蒂固的地区,特别是在教育和保健方面,动员选民越来越困难。海外侨民的投票,尤其是来自欧盟成员国的投票,强化了这种反建制情绪的趋势。这次投票并没有发出欧洲怀疑主义的信号,而是反映了人们对国内治理、普遍腐败和政治精英不透明的深切不满。选举结果也反映了欧盟日益增长的政治化,意识形态之间的争论日益加剧。传统主义价值观重新占据了中心地位,这与后共产主义欧洲出现的更广泛的非自由主义转向相呼应。这种转变伴随着越来越严厉的欧洲怀疑言论,尤其是在极右翼主权主义集团中。然而,选举后的时期显示了新进入者的结构性脆弱性:SOS罗马尼亚和POT都经历了重大的叛逃和内部分裂。尽管遭遇了这些挫折,人民力量联盟仍然是极右翼阵营中的主导力量,截至2025年初,它继续在全国民意调查中领先,尽管其可信度因联合创始人克劳迪乌·特尔齐乌的重大内部分裂而动摇。2025年5月,在中央选举局决定不承认cciurlin Georgescu的候选资格(Buti和Radu 2023)之后,重新组织了总统选举,布加勒斯特市长Nicusor Dan在决选中击败George Simion获胜(表3)。丹的胜利是在一场日益被视为事关罗马尼亚在欧盟内未来的公投结束时取得的。这种叙述帮助动员了大量的支持,最终使决选的投票率达到64.7,比第一轮增加了11.5个百分点。在去年11月和12月的“夹心选举”期间,参与人数的激增已经显而易见,这不仅反映了公众对选举政治日益增长的兴趣,也反映了政治两极分化的加剧。在2024年12月6日第32号决定之后,这种两极分化加剧,引发了广泛的街头抗议,并在公共和私人领域引发了激烈的辩论。罗马尼亚曾经稳定的民主制度,虽然功能不完善,却突然暴露出其潜在的脆弱性。2024年(以及随后的2025年)的选举周期标志着罗马尼亚政治发展的关键断裂,也是与邻国保加利亚根深蒂固的不稳定趋同的时刻。罗马尼亚和保加利亚现在似乎在结构上趋同:这两个国家都在努力应对主流政党合法性的侵蚀、身份政治的武器化,以
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引用次数: 0
EU Snapshots 2024
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1111/jcms.70026
Andrea Pareschi
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引用次数: 0
Using, Promoting and Shaping Europeanisation Through Projectification: The Case of Higher Education Institutions 以项目化运用、推进和塑造欧洲化:以高等院校为例
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-10 DOI: 10.1111/jcms.70020
Alina Felder-Stindt

Actors who benefit from the European Union's (EU) opportunity structures strive to expand EU policy-making. A central manner of benefitting from EU opportunity structures is the acquisition of EU funding, which then is implemented through projects and has led to research concerned with the projectification of EU public policy-making. Whilst the European Commission explicitly encourages EU funding beneficiaries to participate in the interactive set-up of EU policy-making, a bottom-up perspective on projectification in EU public policy is lacking so far. To answer the question of how the implementation of projectified policies feeds back at EU policy-making, a theoretical framework is developed that combines a projectification perspective with bottom-up Europeanisation research. The framework provides three potential modes of leveraging projectified EU policy: re-using EU project funding, promoting its availability and pro-actively shaping EU policy. Applying the framework to analyse how higher education (HE) institutions leverage EU project funding, this study finds that HE institutions do not only re-use and promote the opportunity structures that let them foster their co-operation but that they also become shapers of EU policy. The finding that EU funding beneficiaries may become EU policy shapers has important implications for EU policy-making, which increasingly relies on the bottom-up engagement of (sub)national-level actors.

受益于欧盟机会结构的行动者努力扩大欧盟的政策制定。从欧盟机会结构中受益的一个主要方式是获得欧盟资金,然后通过项目实施,并导致有关欧盟公共政策制定项目的研究。虽然欧盟委员会明确鼓励欧盟资助受益者参与欧盟政策制定的互动设置,但迄今为止,欧盟公共政策中缺乏自下而上的项目化视角。为了回答投射政策的实施如何反馈给欧盟政策制定的问题,我们开发了一个理论框架,将投射视角与自下而上的欧洲化研究相结合。该框架提供了三种潜在的利用投射欧盟政策的模式:再利用欧盟项目资金,促进其可用性和积极塑造欧盟政策。应用该框架分析高等教育机构如何利用欧盟项目资金,本研究发现高等教育机构不仅重新利用和促进机会结构,使他们能够促进合作,而且他们也成为欧盟政策的塑造者。欧盟资助受益者可能成为欧盟政策塑造者,这一发现对欧盟政策制定具有重要意义,因为欧盟政策制定越来越依赖于(次)国家层面参与者的自下而上参与。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond External Incentives: The European Union, Wartime Enlargement and the Candidate Countries in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans 超越外部激励:欧盟、战时扩张及东欧和西巴尔干候选国
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1111/jcms.70018
Alexander Mesarovich, Tobias Schumacher
<p>Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 marked a rupture in many regards. Moscow's brutal assault represents the most comprehensive attempt in post-World War II Europe to change internationally recognised borders by force, violating the territorial integrity and sovereignty of an independent state, and, as such, the established international legal order. It also had the rather unexpected effect – at least until the re-election of Donald Trump as US President in late 2024 – of countering the alleged ‘decline of the West’ (Marquand, <span>2012</span>), which was considered too triumphalist and, at the same time, too debilitated and fragmented to defend the very values it was built upon. The European Union (EU), an integral part of the liberal world order's governance structure, was long seen to be engaged in a ‘struggle against global irrelevance’ (Youngs, <span>2010</span>) and poised to witness its ‘coming erosion’ (Walt, <span>2011</span>). Arguably, no other policy represented the EU's inability to advance its own <i>raison d'être</i> and the process of European integration more strikingly than its enlargement policy post-2004/2007. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, EU enlargement was noted more for its failure and observed more in rhetoric than in practice, mainly because of member states' unwillingness to pursue much needed treaty changes and their disagreement over the ‘how’, the ‘when’ and the ‘who’ of a potential EU ‘widening’.</p><p>Whilst it would be misleading to claim that Russia's war on Ukraine has put an end to the much-cited enlargement fatigue, it is unquestionable that it has reinvigorated the discourse on EU expansion, bestowed on it a renewed dynamic and upended its long-held second-order status. The rapidly altering geopolitical context and changing security landscape in Europe have motivated the EU to extend the prospect of membership to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia in 2022 and 2023, respectively. In parallel, the EU has also sought to provide new impetus to accession in the Western Balkans (WB), which was largely considered moribund (Uvalić, <span>2023</span>). Bosnia and Herzegovina was also granted candidate status, and even Armenia has become motivated to seek – yet again – closer ties with the EU.</p><p>Against this backdrop, scholarship has been playing catch-up to understand how the altered external environment has changed the EU's approach towards the new and old candidate countries. Embedded in this debate, this article argues that it is time to revisit the External Incentives Model (EIM), a dominant explanatory model of EU external action and of EU accession policies from the 2000s. Whilst it provided meaningful explanations with respect to earlier waves of enlargement (Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier, <span>2020</span>), this article posits that the EIM is of limited utility in a situation in which the past European order – which proved conducive for EU enlargement and corresponding scholarl
俄罗斯在2022年2月24日对乌克兰的全面入侵标志着双方在许多方面的破裂。莫斯科的野蛮攻击代表了二战后欧洲以武力改变国际公认边界的最全面尝试,侵犯了一个独立国家的领土完整和主权,因此也侵犯了既定的国际法律秩序。它还产生了相当意想不到的效果——至少在2024年底唐纳德·特朗普再次当选美国总统之前——对抗所谓的“西方的衰落”(马昆德,2012),西方被认为过于必胜主义,同时又过于衰弱和分裂,无法捍卫其赖以建立的价值观。欧盟(EU)是自由世界秩序治理结构的一个组成部分,长期以来一直被视为“与全球无关的斗争”(young, 2010),并准备见证其“即将到来的侵蚀”(Walt, 2011)。可以说,没有任何一项政策比2004/2007年后的扩张政策更明显地代表了欧盟在推进自身的être理由和欧洲一体化进程方面的无能。在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前,欧盟东扩的失败更引人注目,更多的是在口头上而不是在实践中观察,主要是因为成员国不愿意追求急需的条约修改,以及他们对潜在的欧盟“扩大”的“如何”、“何时”和“谁”的分歧。如果说俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争结束了人们常说的“扩大疲劳”,这是一种误导,但毫无疑问的是,它重新激发了欧盟扩张的讨论,赋予了它新的活力,颠覆了它长期以来的次要地位。快速变化的地缘政治背景和不断变化的欧洲安全格局促使欧盟分别在2022年和2023年将乌克兰、摩尔多瓦和格鲁吉亚纳入欧盟成员国行列。与此同时,欧盟还寻求为西巴尔干地区(WB)的加入提供新的动力,这在很大程度上被认为是垂死的(uvaliki, 2023)。波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那也获得了候选国地位,甚至亚美尼亚也有动力再次寻求与欧盟建立更紧密的联系。在此背景下,学术界一直在努力了解外部环境的变化如何改变了欧盟对新、旧候选国的态度。在这场辩论中,本文认为是时候重新审视外部激励模型(EIM)了,这是2000年代以来欧盟对外行动和欧盟加入政策的主要解释模型。虽然它为早期的扩大浪潮提供了有意义的解释(Schimmelfennig和Sedelmeier, 2020),但本文认为,在过去的欧洲秩序(事实证明有利于欧盟扩大和相应的学术解释努力)已成为“过时框架”的情况下,EIM的效用有限(Vimont, 2023)。具体来说,它认为(a) EIM主要关注程序、过程和结果,(b)它对扩大的安全和民主因素之间的相互作用的无知,以及(c)它对欧盟条件的狭隘关注使得它不适合捕捉世界银行和东欧最近的扩大动态。本文首先概述了EIM,包括其演变、逻辑和关于加入欧盟性质的关键假设。然后,它扩展了确定的三个关键差距,特别关注2024年的事件,如果仅仅通过EIM的镜头研究,就会错过这些事件。当然,并不是每一个相关事件都能得到解决,但选择的目的是突出竞争的逻辑、做法和机制,它们在过去一年中影响了扩大。最后,在结论部分,本文为那些正在研究加入欧盟以及正在实施加入欧盟的人提出了三个初步的途径。随着欧盟在21世纪初的扩张,学者们试图解释欧盟邻国改革步伐的差异。外部激励模型,顾名思义,认为关键的原因是欧盟采用外部激励来激励变革(Schimmelfennig和Sedelmeier, 2004)。在这种理性主义的欧洲化模型中,候选国家被认为是理性的行为者,他们对欧盟的刺激做出反应,实施艰难的改革,最终的回报是加入欧盟(Schimmelfennig, 2008; Schimmelfennig和Sedelmeier, 2020)。然而,这种奖励机制的成功也取决于两个国际和两个国内标准:“(1)欧盟条件的确定性和一致性,(2)加入的可信度,(3)候选国的能力和(4)国内成本”(Džankić等人,2019年,第19页)。国际标准适用于欧盟对候选国的行为。 欧盟条件的高度确定性和一致性是必要的,因为明确、一致的标准是激励理性选择行为所必需的。“模糊”的标准,如民主或法治条件,而不是直接的标准,如产品标准化或卫生和植物检疫标准,为“作弊”创造了更大的空间(bojinoviki Fenko和urliki, 2015)。最终加入提议的可信度较低,进一步推动了这一点,因为如果没有可信的加入提议,遵守规则行为的潜在回报就会大大减少(Schimmelfennig和Scholtz, 2008; Tyushka和Schumacher, 2021)。在内部,EIM认为,如果候选国有足够的国内能力实施改革,并且改革成本不太高,那么条件限制将会成功(kopriki, 2019)。后一个前提条件很明显,因为存在严重政治或经济问题的候选国可能不容易受到欧盟的激励(Džankić等人,2019年,第20页),政治精英可能出于自己的政治或个人原因拒绝实施改革(Mesarovich, 2025a)。随着2010年代欧盟加入速度的放缓,EIM的解释能力开始减弱。随着欧盟因“扩大疲劳”而转向内部,欧盟成员国越来越多地阻挠加入(Kaeding et al., 2023; uvalicic, 2023),加入的动力似乎基本上已经死亡,因此,EIM几乎没有什么作用可发挥。21世纪20年代截然不同的地缘政治环境,以及欧盟及其候选国对此的反应,都清楚地表明,欧盟将重振东扩。然而,它们也比以往任何时候都更突出了EIM逻辑中的至少三个主要缺陷,即对程序的关注,对安全作为加入驱动因素的相关性的低估,以及对欧盟条件的狭隘强调。随着俄罗斯在乌克兰的侵略持续到2024年,西巴尔干地区的紧张局势日益加剧,有必要从更广泛的角度来看待支持和限制候选国加入欧盟动态的因素。从欧盟内部改革到欧盟成员国和候选国本身的新政治力量,从塞尔维亚的学生示威到格鲁吉亚的大规模抗议,从德国的选举到波斯尼亚的分离主义,2024年是充满变化和挑战的一年,这要求我们更新我们的理论和政策模型,以最好地理解和支持欧盟加入。但是,我们该怎么做呢?如果这篇文章中指出的差距使得EIM不足以解释当前地缘政治气候下的扩大动态,那么这对寻求理解这些过程的学者和博学的政策制定者意味着什么?首先,它将人们的注意力重新转向了政治在决定加入欧盟过程中的重要性。欧盟、成员国、候选国、地区和地方层面的动态以复杂的方式相互联系。例如,德国的新联盟协议强调欧盟内部“深化”和“扩大”的必要性,并建议分阶段加入欧盟作为解决这一僵局的办法(Jansen等人,2025a)。候选国家在本体论上不能被简化为理性选择的决策者。相反,接受政治决策的复杂性,包括正式和非正式的因素,是必要的。这并不意味着放弃理性主义模型,而是要求纳入更广泛的干预变量。第二,超越当前挑战走向扩大也需要创造性思维。有用的第一步是,根据每个国家的具体情况(包括安全问题)调整欧盟的条件,跳出简单的追求回报的逻辑,寻求创新的解决方案,以支持候选国的欧洲伙伴。在这方面,分阶段加入是有用的,在解决更复杂的问题的同时,为候选人提供更多的增量奖励(mihajloviki et al., 2023)。具有讽刺意味的是,在世界银行,福利需要提前发放,以激励候选国更认真地对待改革,从而扭转传统的加入逻辑。然而,乌克兰和摩尔多瓦(这两个国家在2022年至2024年底期间系统地提前发放了福利)表明,这不仅不会减缓改革,反而会促进改革。第三,也是最后一点,全心全意地支持民主至关重要,即
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引用次数: 0
The Formation of the Second von der Leyen Commission: Nomination, Organisation and Confirmation 第二届冯德莱恩委员会的组成:提名、组织和确认
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1111/jcms.70015
Desmond Dinan, Sophia Russack
<p>The appointment of a new Commission is a major event in the institutional and political life of the European Union (EU). It begins immediately after the European Parliament (EP) elections, when the European Council nominates (or re-nominates) a Commission president, and ends several months later when the European Council appoints the Commission for a 5-year period. In the meantime, the EP votes on the nominee for President; national governments nominate their would-be Commissioners; the President allocates portfolios amongst the Commissioners-designate; and the EP holds confirmation hearings for each Commissioner-designate before holding a vote of approval on the College as a whole.</p><p>This article examines how events unfolded in 2024, resulting in the formation of the second Commission of Ursula von der Leyen. It does so in the context of the increasing politicisation of the process and presidentialisation of the Commission, notably following a series of revisions introduced in the treaties of Amsterdam (1997), Nice (2001), and Lisbon (2007). As a result of those and other changes, the Commission President is far more than merely ‘primus inter pares’ in the College (Ross and Jenson, <span>2017</span>, p. 117). The authority of the President has grown especially because of the personalisation of the presidential appointment process, the recognition of the President's political leadership role, including the President's ability to shape and structure the College (Kassim et al., <span>2017</span>, p. 659).</p><p>The article first develops the three main elements of politicisation in the process of forming a new Commission, focusing particularly on the nomination of the President through the lead candidate procedure; the President's increasing control over the Commission, ranging from the nomination of Commissioners-designate to the internal organisation of the College, including the allocation of portfolios; and the EP's confirmation of the College. It then looks specifically at von der Leyen's re-nomination and re-election, the construction of her new College, the EP confirmation hearings and vote of approval and the appointment of the new Commission. The conclusion summarises the key developments in the formation of the second von der Leyen Commission and their significance for EU governance.</p><p>Commission politicisation is manifested in many ways, including the composition of the College, which increasingly comprises political ‘heavyweights’ (Hartlapp, <span>2015</span>), and the rising influence of elected or appointed politicians in decision-making processes at the expense of bureaucrats and officials (De Wilde, <span>2011</span>, p. 561). Another indicator of politicisation is the EP's increasing control over the Commission, making the latter more accountable to the former (Wille, <span>2013</span>). Party politics, which traditionally played only a minor role in the Commission (Egeberg, <span>2006</span>; Peterson, <span>1999</span>
任命一个新的委员会是欧洲联盟(欧盟)体制和政治生活中的一件大事。它在欧洲议会(EP)选举后立即开始,当时欧洲理事会提名(或重新提名)委员会主席,并在几个月后欧洲理事会任命委员会时结束,任期为5年。同时,欧洲议会对总统候选人进行投票;各国政府提名他们的准委员;总统在候任专员之间分配职务;欧洲议会在对整个学院进行投票批准之前,对每一位委员候任人举行确认听证会。本文考察了2024年的事件是如何展开的,导致了乌苏拉·冯·德莱恩第二委员会的成立。这是在欧盟委员会进程日益政治化和主席化的背景下进行的,特别是在阿姆斯特丹条约(1997年)、尼斯条约(2001年)和里斯本条约(2007年)中引入的一系列修订之后。由于这些和其他变化,委员会主席在学院中的地位远远不仅仅是“主理人”(Ross and Jenson, 2017, p. 117)。由于总统任命过程的个性化,总统政治领导角色的认可,包括总统塑造和构建学院的能力,总统的权威已经增长(Kassim等人,2017年,第659页)。文章首先阐述了在组建新委员会的过程中政治化的三个主要因素,特别侧重于通过主要候选人程序提名主席;总统对委员会的控制越来越大,从任命委员到学院的内部组织,包括组合的分配;以及议会对学院的确认。然后特别关注冯德莱恩的再次提名和连任,她的新学院的建设,欧洲议会的确认听证会和投票批准以及新委员会的任命。结论总结了第二届冯德莱恩委员会形成的关键发展及其对欧盟治理的意义。委员会政治化表现在许多方面,包括学院的组成,其中越来越多地包括政治“重量级人物”(Hartlapp, 2015),以及以牺牲官僚和官员为代价,选举或任命的政治家在决策过程中的影响力不断上升(De Wilde, 2011, p. 561)。政治化的另一个指标是欧洲议会对委员会的控制越来越大,使后者对前者更负责(Wille, 2013)。政党政治,传统上只在委员会中扮演次要角色(Egeberg, 2006; Peterson, 1999; Wonka, 2008),正变得越来越重要;(国家和欧洲)政党和党派冲突日益增长的影响力也被视为欧盟委员会政治化的标志(De Wilde, 2011,第561页)。总的来说,任命委员会的过程越来越多地涉及当选总统,并变得更加政治化,尤其是因为欧洲议会的作用已经扩大,学院必须经过审查过程。本节通过探讨近年来委员会主席化和政治化的三个主要途径,将第二届冯德莱恩委员会的提名和任命置于背景下。关于2024年选举管理委员会的组成,首先要问的是斯皮岑候选人选拔过程的结果如何。要成立一个新的委员会,有两个关键的因素:候选人的提名和学院的内部设置和组织。启动新委员会的倒数第二步在欧洲议会进行,其中拟议的学院“作为一个整体,须经投票同意”(第17.7 TEU条)。2024年,美国议会进行了第七次确认听证会(Russack, 2024)。由于跨领域的投资组合越来越多,委员会越来越多地联合组织和举行听证会。在2024年的26场听证会中,至少有13场是由两个或两个以上的委员会举行的,而在英国脱欧之前,2019年有11场,2014年有9场,当时有27场听证会。2024年,史无前例地由三、四个委员会联合举行了五次听证会。欧洲议会委员会批准了所有正在考虑的候选人,即使是那些被认为有争议或有争议的候选人。匈牙利的提名者、冯德莱恩第一届委员会的继任者瓦赫尔伊(Varhelyi)在2024年是最脆弱的,因为人们认为他只是Orbán的代言人。 Varhelyi没有被否决,也没有经历第二次听证会,他只需要在听证会后回答一系列书面问题,这是欧洲议会和欧盟委员会服务之间的一种“官僚乒乓球”形式(Russack, 2024,第13页)。欧洲议会对他相当宽容,显然是为了避免冒犯Orbán并危及整个审批过程,因为Orbán可能会拒绝提出另一位候选人,从而推迟新委员会的任命。拉斐尔•菲托(Raffaele Fitto)是梅洛尼极右翼政党意大利兄弟会(Fratelli d’italia)的成员,他也得到了宽大处理。除了原则上反对菲托之外,欧洲议会中的中左翼团体也反对任命他为有影响力的欧洲执行副总裁之一。然而,在欧洲人民党的保护下,菲托度过了难关。菲托案表明,确认过程中的党派政治化程度日益加剧。事实上,政党政治预先决定了听证会的结果。在选举过程开始之前,各大政治团体就一致同意所有候选人都能顺利通过。鉴于欧盟面临着巨大的经济和战略挑战,迫切需要完成向新制度周期的过渡,这或许是可以理解的,但它引发了有关民主问责制和合法性的问题。在听证会的第二周,西班牙人民党(EPP成员)试图将瓦伦西亚洪灾的责任转移到特雷莎·里贝拉身上。特雷莎·里贝拉是西班牙的候任专员,并非巧合的是,她是一位社会民主党人。欧洲人民党领袖曼弗雷德·韦伯允许他的西班牙代表团“不受约束”,可能是为了打消标普要求取消菲托执行副总裁任命的要求,或者是为了向-á-vis冯德莱恩展示韦伯的权威,或者两者兼而有之。最终,EPP和标普同意恢复原来的立场,EPP接受里贝拉,标普接受菲托。总的来说,2024年确认听证会的进行反映了6月选举后欧洲议会的构成。由于欧洲人民党占主导地位,并且不愿与反叛的极右翼合作,主流政治团体之间的“相互抓背”文化(一直是欧洲人民党的一个特征)显著增加。听证会从来不只是或主要是关于候选人的资格和表现。制度上的权力游戏和政党间的针锋相对一直起着作用。然而,在2024年,政党政治超过了欧洲议会传统的机构力量展示,这曾经是团结不同政治派别的一种手段。2024年11月27日,欧洲议会以370票对282票、36票弃权的结果确认了冯德莱恩的第二学院。这意味着56.75%的支持率,这是学院有史以来最低的支持率,也是长期下降趋势的一部分,这无疑与欧洲议会组成的变化有关,其中欧洲怀疑主义势力继续占上风。欧洲理事会于2024年11月28日采取了组建新委员会的最后一步,当时它“通过书面程序任命欧盟委员会,任期为2024年12月1日至2029年10月31日”(欧洲理事会,2024b)。第二届冯德莱恩委员会于2024年12月1日就职。作为附录,新学院于2025年1月27日在欧洲法院庄严宣誓,承诺独立、公正地为欧盟服务,并充分尊重条约和基本权利宪章,如TFEU第245条所规定的。虽然条约中没有提到宣誓本身,但委员独立行动的义务直接遵循条约,并在任命新委员会时立即适用。第二届冯德莱恩委员会的成立从几个方面说明了问题。根据欧盟第17.7 TEU条,冯德莱恩的提名需要欧洲理事会和欧洲议会进行协商,欧洲议会希望重现2014年容克担任欧盟主席时的斯皮岑候选人程序。2024年,冯德莱恩确实是欧洲人民党最有力的候选人,但这只是因为这有助于她顺利获得连任。她和大多数国家领导人都不太关心斯皮岑的候选人提名过程,而欧洲理事会(European Council)对这一过程只是说说而已。欧洲理事会很容易就冯德莱恩的提名达成一致,这是欧盟最高机构职位一揽子协议的一部分。政党政治立场最重要。用通俗的话来说,欧洲理事会是在告诉欧洲议会别乱来。用克拉姆更复杂的语言来说,2024年斯皮岑候选人竞选过程的结果进一步揭示了2019年已经很明显的事情:“欧盟大多数机构间政治理论中隐含的以欧洲议
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引用次数: 0
How Much Do Experts' Ideas Matter for the European Union's Political Agenda? 专家的观点对欧盟的政治议程有多大影响?
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1111/jcms.70022
Vivien A. Schmidt

Experts have over the years produced countless policy briefs, reports and documents in efforts to influence policy-makers' decisions about EU economic policy and governance. In a special category are the expert reports officially commissioned by EU institutional actors. In the past, the most influential such reports included the 1970 Werner report, the 1985 Cockfield report on completing the single market and the 1989 Delors report on monetary union, amongst others (see Gros, this issue). The latest examples are the reports by Enrico Letta (2024) on the single market and by Mario Draghi (2024) on competitiveness in the EU (see Chang, this issue; Gros, this issue; Moschella and Quaglia, this issue). These reports, much like the earlier ones, can be seen as game changers for the EU political agenda in terms of their levels of ambition and innovation.

Whether the Letta and Draghi expert reports have a direct or immediate impact on the EU political agenda remains an open question. Much depends upon such imponderables as the political will of EU leaders in the European Council, the administrative capacities of the European Commission and the evolving politics of the European Parliament (EP) and of member states in an increasingly populist extreme right context. Institutional constraints or opportunities, political serendipity and timing are additional factors. Moreover, what the reports leave out is as important for the future as what they put in.

But whatever their ultimate impact, the Letta and Draghi reports have raised the bar with regard to the ideas that will shape the conversation about the goals and parameters of the EU agenda for years to come and, in so doing, have provided a legitimating reference for all those pushing for deeper integration to address the existential challenges facing the EU. The reports have accomplished this not only as a result of the persuasive presentation of their main ideas but also through their circulation both ex ante via the initial widespread consultations in the reports' drafting phase and ex post through the widescale debates as well as contestation about their recommendations amongst EU institutional actors and member state political elites, amongst experts in think tanks and professional networks, by opinion leaders and civil society organisations and by the media. Put more simply, the reports have renewed the EU's political agenda by providing a coherent and ambitious new vision about what should and could be done to make the EU a success as a supranational polity and world economic power. And in so doing, regardless of how or even whether the specific recommendations are translated into practice, the reports have served as catalysts for focused discussions across Europe about what to do and how to do it.

This contribution begins with a brief discussion of how experts' ideas matter and then discusses why the Letta and Draghi reports substantively matter for th

多年来,专家们制作了无数的政策简报、报告和文件,努力影响决策者关于欧盟经济政策和治理的决定。一个特殊类别是由欧盟机构行动者正式委托的专家报告。过去,最具影响力的此类报告包括1970年的沃纳报告、1985年关于完成单一市场的考克菲尔德报告和1989年关于货币联盟的德洛尔报告等(见格罗斯本期)。最新的例子是Enrico Letta(2024)关于单一市场的报告和Mario Draghi(2024)关于欧盟竞争力的报告(参见Chang,本期;Gros,本期;Moschella和Quaglia,本期)。这些报告,就其雄心和创新水平而言,与之前的报告非常相似,可以被视为欧盟政治议程的游戏规则改变者。莱塔和德拉吉的专家报告是否会对欧盟的政治议程产生直接或即时的影响,仍是一个悬而未决的问题。这在很大程度上取决于一些不可估量的因素,如欧洲理事会欧盟领导人的政治意愿、欧盟委员会的行政能力,以及欧洲议会和成员国在日益民粹主义极右翼背景下不断演变的政治。制度限制或机会、政治偶然性和时机是其他因素。此外,报告中遗漏的内容对未来同样重要。但无论最终的影响是什么,莱塔和德拉吉的报告都提高了一些观点的标准,这些观点将影响未来几年关于欧盟议程目标和参数的讨论,并由此为所有那些推动更深层次一体化以应对欧盟面临的生存挑战的人提供了合理的参考。这些报告之所以能做到这一点,不仅是因为它们对主要观点的有说服力的陈述,而且还因为它们在报告起草阶段的前期广泛磋商,以及在欧盟机构参与者和成员国政治精英、智库专家和专业网络之间就其建议进行的广泛辩论和争论,舆论领袖、民间社会组织和媒体。更简单地说,这些报告为欧盟作为一个超国家政体和世界经济强国应该和能够做些什么提供了一个连贯的、雄心勃勃的新愿景,从而更新了欧盟的政治议程。在这样做的过程中,无论具体建议如何付诸实践,甚至是否付诸实践,这些报告都促进了欧洲各地关于该做什么和如何做的集中讨论。这篇文章首先简要讨论了专家们的想法是如何重要的,然后讨论了为什么莱塔和德拉吉的报告对欧盟的政治议程至关重要。在这样做的过程中,它展示了专家报告的说服力,不仅是因为他们说了什么,还因为他们说的方式,即通过叙述和框架,以及他们说的对象,即包括在报告结构中的人,以及他们沟通的目标受众。但报告也指出,由于潜在的意识形态盲点或战略疏漏,报告的影响可能受到限制。重要的是,想法需要以引起共鸣的方式构建,它们必须得到发展和广泛交流。在构思想法的过程中,这意味着“创意企业家”需要创造令人信服的故事和启发性的框架,能够让人们相信他们已经充分识别了问题,并提出了符合社区价值观的有效解决方案。在思想的发展和传播中,这意味着思想需要在专家的“话语社区”的背景下得到认知上的证明,并在规范上向公众合法化(Schmidt, 2002, 2008, 2020)。最后,为了让想法不仅重要,而且具有“说服力”,他们需要能够让人们接受他们的观点,从而就需要做的事情达成某种共识(Carstensen和Schmidt, 2016)。叙事是按时间设定的,有开头、中间和结尾,目的是作为理解世界和感知在其中做什么的指南(Patterson和Monroe, 1998)。框架和框架为知识和行动提供了更清晰的、非时间的路标(Schön和Rein, 1994)。运用这种叙事和框架的“创意企业家”(Stiller, 2010)的影响力不仅来自于他们自己的智力产出的质量——因为他们在专业成就和公众认可方面的身份也很重要。 这也源于他们的思想和话语在专业环境中的传播(引用很重要),以及通过公开辩论、审议和辩论(媒体关注很重要)(Abelson, 2018)。然而,要有所作为,思想和话语还需要通过政策构建的协调话语来传播(Schmidt, 2008),包括通过志同道合的个人的认知社区进行传播(Haas, 1992),通过将专家和决策者联系起来的倡导联盟进行推广(Sabatier, 1988),以及通过专家的专业网络进行积极参与(Fourcade, 2009)。但它们也需要传达给更广泛的公众,由知情的公众和媒体讨论、审议和争论,以努力说服所有人相信这些想法的认知必要性和规范性适当性(Schmidt, 2008)。所有这些特点都是莱塔和德拉吉报告的特点。从单一市场的不完整性和欧盟普遍缺乏竞争力的角度来看,这些报告产生了关于欧盟过去和当前问题的令人信服的叙述,以便为未来的道路提出建议。他们认为这些问题构成了一场关乎生死存亡的危机,并概述了解决欧盟缺陷的行动计划和路线图。此外,他们通过引用欧盟委员会白皮书(主要是莱塔报告)和专家研究(主要是德拉吉报告),在认知上证明了他们的发现是正确的,同时他们通过呼吁欧盟社区价值观,在规范上使他们的建议合法化。例如,莱塔报告重新定义了有关资本市场联盟的讨论,将其重新命名为储蓄与投资联盟。资本市场联盟作为欧盟委员会的目标已被搁置多年。然后,它提供了一种叙述,展示了长期以来被分开对待的领域之间的相互联系,展示了它们如何只有共同努力才能确保单一市场乃至整个欧盟拥有更强大的未来。此外,在规范方面,莱塔报告坚持认为,它提出的倡议将有助于纠正“当前的失败,以一种与欧洲价值观、公民权利和市场经济原则保持一致的方式”,“欧洲消费者的福利是项目的核心”(莱塔报告,第53页)。它还反复提到需要确保欧盟在加强民主的同时继续促进平等和维护法治。德拉吉的报告还表达了对超级全球化对工人的影响的担忧,认为政治精英们没有充分解决超级全球化以及自动化带来的后果,这两者共同导致了工资下降和不平等加剧。该报告进一步建议,需要注意确保这种情况不再发生,并将重点放在技能形成和培训上,这是解决问题的关键。在起草阶段,这些报告同样是大量协调磋商的主题,在正式出版后,这些报告在传播合法性方面也得到了大量参与。莱塔的报告以第一人称叙述的方式开始,讲述了恩里科·莱塔在65个城市举行的400次会议中令人印象深刻的外联活动。他的目的是强调对基础设施的需求,并指出单一市场是“欧盟进步的基石”,“我们需要每个人”在其中发挥自己的作用。然而,与此同时,该账户为广泛的协调话语提供了证据,这些话语不仅涉及与各国首都和欧盟机构参与者的广泛磋商,还涉及与独立智库和以欧盟为重点的研究所的专家,以及与企业和工会团体以及民间社会的广泛磋商。德拉吉的报告还展示了大量的协同磋商,从报告开头列出的与经济专家、智库、企业和工会以及非政府组织等各方接触的长长的清单可以看出这一点。所有这些都确保了思想的广泛传播,它们的影响不仅从外到内,从认知社区、倡导联盟和专家网络到作为“政策经纪人”的报告起草者(Sabatier, 1993),而且从内到外的另一个方向。起草者还扮演“创意企业家”的角色,让对话者不仅相信解决他们具体问题的最佳方法,而且相信这些解决方案如何与其他领域的必要解决方案联系起来。此外,一旦报告发表,莱塔和德拉吉都参与了大量的交流话语,在欧洲各地多次“短暂停留”,在无数的公共场所向相关机构发表演讲,同时接受媒体采访。 在这样做的过程中,他们不仅力求使人们认识到报告和将其建议付诸实践的紧迫性,而且力求使这些报告合法化。由于叙述和框架,以及他们的观点在专家和更广泛的公众中广泛传播,这些报告不仅重要;他们有说服力。这些报告已成
{"title":"How Much Do Experts' Ideas Matter for the European Union's Political Agenda?","authors":"Vivien A. Schmidt","doi":"10.1111/jcms.70022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.70022","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Experts have over the years produced countless policy briefs, reports and documents in efforts to influence policy-makers' decisions about EU economic policy and governance. In a special category are the expert reports officially commissioned by EU institutional actors. In the past, the most influential such reports included the 1970 Werner report, the 1985 Cockfield report on completing the single market and the 1989 Delors report on monetary union, amongst others (see Gros, this issue). The latest examples are the reports by Enrico Letta (<span>2024</span>) on the single market and by Mario Draghi (<span>2024</span>) on competitiveness in the EU (see Chang, this issue; Gros, this issue; Moschella and Quaglia, this issue). These reports, much like the earlier ones, can be seen as game changers for the EU political agenda in terms of their levels of ambition and innovation.</p><p>Whether the Letta and Draghi expert reports have a direct or immediate impact on the EU political agenda remains an open question. Much depends upon such imponderables as the political will of EU leaders in the European Council, the administrative capacities of the European Commission and the evolving politics of the European Parliament (EP) and of member states in an increasingly populist extreme right context. Institutional constraints or opportunities, political serendipity and timing are additional factors. Moreover, what the reports leave out is as important for the future as what they put in.</p><p>But whatever their ultimate impact, the Letta and Draghi reports have raised the bar with regard to the ideas that will shape the conversation about the goals and parameters of the EU agenda for years to come and, in so doing, have provided a legitimating reference for all those pushing for deeper integration to address the existential challenges facing the EU. The reports have accomplished this not only as a result of the persuasive presentation of their main ideas but also through their circulation both ex ante via the initial widespread consultations in the reports' drafting phase and ex post through the widescale debates as well as contestation about their recommendations amongst EU institutional actors and member state political elites, amongst experts in think tanks and professional networks, by opinion leaders and civil society organisations and by the media. Put more simply, the reports have renewed the EU's political agenda by providing a coherent and ambitious new vision about what should and could be done to make the EU a success as a supranational polity and world economic power. And in so doing, regardless of how or even whether the specific recommendations are translated into practice, the reports have served as catalysts for focused discussions across Europe about what to do and how to do it.</p><p>This contribution begins with a brief discussion of how experts' ideas matter and then discusses why the Letta and Draghi reports substantively matter for th","PeriodicalId":51369,"journal":{"name":"Jcms-Journal of Common Market Studies","volume":"63 S1","pages":"123-130"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jcms.70022","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145375066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can the EU Move ‘Beyond GDP’? 欧盟能否“超越GDP”?
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1111/jcms.70021
Christopher Holmes, Agnieszka Widuto

Since 2007, the European Union has devoted significant time and energy to the production and dissemination of new statistics designed to monitor social and environmental trends of various types. These initiatives have often been presented as part of a broader ‘beyond GDP agenda’, which challenges the centrality of economic growth, as measured by GDP, to governance and ideology, in and beyond Europe. Drawing on interviews with staff from across EU institutions involved, this article examines the fortunes of these initiatives with regard to ongoing debates about the extent to which a ‘social Europe’ is achievable. We show that the Beyond GDP agenda faces formidable constraints. The basic structure of EU treaties and competencies and an underlying bias towards technocratic policy-making loom large in the view of those tasked with developing and implementing statistical reform, making the basic aims of the agenda difficult to achieve. Relative successes, such as the inclusion of social and environmental indicators within the European Semester policy cycle, are shown to have been equally subject to these constraints.

自2007年以来,欧盟投入了大量时间和精力制作和传播旨在监测各种社会和环境趋势的新统计数据。这些举措通常被视为更广泛的“超越GDP议程”的一部分,它挑战了以GDP衡量的经济增长对欧洲内外治理和意识形态的中心地位。通过对欧盟各机构工作人员的采访,本文探讨了这些倡议的命运,以及关于“社会欧洲”可实现程度的持续辩论。我们表明,超越GDP议程面临着巨大的制约。在那些负责制定和实施统计改革的人看来,欧盟条约和权限的基本结构以及对技术官僚决策的潜在偏见显得十分突出,这使得议程的基本目标难以实现。相对的成功,例如在欧洲学期政策周期内纳入社会和环境指标,也同样受到这些限制。
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引用次数: 0
European Defence and NATO: From Competition to Co-operation to Replacement? 欧洲防务与北约:从竞争到合作再到替代?
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1111/jcms.70010
Jolyon Howorth
<p>The project to endow the European Union (EU) with its own defence capacity and policy is now (at least) some 30 years old. Although it was adumbrated in the late 1980s via the reactivation of the <i>Western European Union</i> (Rees, <span>1998</span>), it began life in the early years of the Clinton presidency as the <i>European Security and Defence Identity</i> (ESDI), which sought to empower European forces as a distinct military capacity with its own chain of command from inside the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) (Howorth, <span>2000</span>, pp. 22–30). In 1998, the Franco-British summit in Saint-Malo launched the project that was to become the <i>Common Security and Defence Policy</i> (CSDP). The summit Declaration blurred the link with NATO by stating that ‘the Union must have the capacity for autonomous action, backed up by credible military forces, the means to decide to use them, and a readiness to do so, in order to respond to international crises’ (Joint Declaration on European Defence, <span>1998</span>). The word ‘autonomous’ was launched.</p><p>For over 25 years, the EU has striven to transform the Saint-Malo Declaration into reality (Howorth, <span>2014</span>). That quest has taken on a bewildering variety of forms, but underlying all of them has been the challenge of clearly defining the relationship between CSDP and NATO. The CSDP project has faced three major obstacles, which have persisted over time. First is the very fact that NATO existed: what precise role was there for CSDP? Second is the reality that every US president since George H. W. Bush has actively opposed greater European autonomy. And third is the fact that the EU's member states could not agree either on the nature of the defence project or on how to play the transatlantic card.</p><p>During the 2000s, the EU's more Atlanticist states, led by the United Kingdom, insisted that CSDP was little more than a regional crisis management capacity. NATO itself would – and should – continue to take responsibility for collective defence. Other member states, most notably France, did not exclude the prospect of CSDP eventually becoming a much more robust European capacity, capable of aspiring to genuine autonomy of action. To some, this implied competition with NATO. Yet France, which had left NATO's integrated military command in 1966, rejoined it in 2009. The objective, according to Hubert Védrine's official report on reintegration, was to be the ‘Europeanisation of NATO’ (Védrine, <span>2012</span>). What did that imply? In a private conversation, Védrine told me that the expression was merely an aspiration. It had no substantive meaning.</p><p>Throughout a succession of crises beginning in the 1990s (from the Bosnian and Kosovo wars to the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and finally the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022), the EU constantly struggled with the key conundrum of its relationship with NATO. The quasi-automatic – and quasi-universal – assumpt
赋予欧盟(EU)自己的防御能力和政策的计划现在(至少)已经有30年的历史了。虽然它是在20世纪80年代后期通过西欧联盟的重新激活而预示的(Rees, 1998),但它在克林顿总统任期的早期作为欧洲安全与防务身份(ESDI)开始存在,该身份试图授权欧洲军队作为北大西洋公约组织(北约)内部具有自己的指挥链的独特军事能力(Howorth, 2000,第22-30页)。1998年,在圣马洛举行的法英峰会启动了共同安全与防务政策(CSDP)项目。峰会宣言模糊了与北约的联系,声明“欧盟必须有自主行动的能力,以可靠的军事力量为后盾,决定使用它们的手段,并准备好这样做,以应对国际危机”(欧洲防务联合宣言,1998年)。“自主”这个词出现了。25年来,欧盟一直在努力将《圣马洛宣言》变为现实(Howorth, 2014)。这种追求的形式五花八门,令人眼花缭乱,但所有这些形式背后的挑战都是如何明确界定CSDP与北约之间的关系。CSDP项目面临着三个主要障碍,这些障碍一直存在。首先是北约存在的事实:CSDP的确切角色是什么?其次是一个现实:自乔治•h•w•布什(George H. W. Bush)以来,每一位美国总统都积极反对欧洲获得更大的自治权。第三个事实是,欧盟成员国既无法就防务项目的性质达成一致,也无法就如何打跨大西洋这张牌达成一致。在2000年代,以英国为首的欧盟更倾向于大西洋的国家坚持认为,CSDP只不过是一种区域危机管理能力。北约本身将——也应该——继续承担集体防御的责任。其他成员国,尤其是法国,并没有排除CSDP最终成为一个强大得多的欧洲力量的可能性,有能力追求真正的行动自主权。对一些人来说,这意味着与北约的竞争。然而,1966年退出北约一体化军事指挥的法国,在2009年重新加入了北约。根据休伯特·维萨德雷恩关于重新融入的官方报告,目标是“北约的欧洲化”(维萨德雷恩,2012)。这意味着什么?在一次私人谈话中,vsamdrine告诉我,这个表达仅仅是一种愿望。它没有实质意义。在上世纪90年代开始的一系列危机中(从波斯尼亚和科索沃战争到2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚,最后是2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰),欧盟一直在努力解决与北约关系的关键难题。这种半自动和准普遍的假设是,如果存在威胁出现,美国将介入保护欧洲。但真的会吗?2016年6月,欧盟发布了一项酝酿已久的战略计划,名为《外交与安全政策全球战略》[欧洲对外行动署,2016]。该文件中提到的关键目标是“战略自主”,提及次数不少于8次。这个概念难以精确定义。这是否如许多美国政客和战略专家所说的那样,是在宣布与北约竞争并独立于北约,也就是说,是在宣布独立于美国?还是像欧洲官员和发言人坚称的那样,这是战略成熟和军事决心的体现?答案远不明确,每个成员国都有自己独特的观点(Bartels et al., 2017)。在2012年以后的一系列出版物中,我认为解决这个难题的办法不在于北约和CSDP的平行共存,而在于它们的合并(Howorth, 2012, 2014a, 2017)。论点如下。几十年来,美国一直在敲响分担责任的警钟,似乎决心迫使欧洲为其邻国承担更多责任。这也是欧洲声称想要的。因此,共同策划一项战略转变,从而改变联盟内部的责任和领导平衡,同样符合双方的利益。欧洲人不应不顾美国的怀疑和抵制,试图授权CSDP与北约形成对比,也不应复制机构和能力,而应参与对联盟的有效接管,但应与美国全面合作(Howorth, 2019)。自治只能通过北约来实现。多年来,这一论点似乎演变成了许多人现在所说的“北约的欧洲支柱”(Daalder等人,2025;Ringsmose和Webber, 2020; Tardy, 2025)。它也赋予了“北约欧洲化”意义。 甚至在奥巴马执政期间,北约对利比亚的干预(首次以美国“幕后领导”为特征)之后,这种观念就开始升温。北约的任务由法英夫妇领导(Howorth, 2014b; Johnson和Mueen, 2012)。在唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)总统的第一届政府领导下,越来越多的声音支持欧盟与北约(nato)加强合作,以期加快欧盟走向更大自主权的步伐,不仅在危机管理方面,而且在集体防御方面也越来越多。欧盟的CSDP并没有被抛弃。在2025年夏季,它仍然从事不少于14项民事任务和行动,4项军事训练任务和4项严格军事行动(EEAS, 2025)。把这些任务当作插曲而不予理会既无礼又不恰当。但与让欧洲准备好应对与复兴的俄罗斯之间可能存在的高强度军事冲突的挑战相比,它们当然是次要的。到2000年代中期,随着俄罗斯开始在东欧展示军事实力,欧盟与北约的直接关系成为最紧迫的关注焦点。关键的问题在于,欧盟缺乏任何宏大的战略,没有任何清晰的愿景来实现它希望在东部邻国实现的目标。其大肆吹嘘的东部伙伴关系政策被证明是一个令人沮丧的失败(Nielsen and Vilson, 2014),导致美国在2014年恢复了在欧洲和俄罗斯边境地区的联盟政策的领导地位。特朗普第一届政府的经历已经动摇了这种领导力。美国在世界各地的盟友被迫重新考虑依赖美国保护者是否明智。从东京到柏林,从堪培拉到巴黎,从首尔到布鲁塞尔,从渥太华到伦敦,关于与华盛顿安全关系性质的长期确定性被动摇了(哈斯,2020)。各地,自治的苗头占据了新闻头条。这一全球趋势在欧洲表现得尤为尖锐,因为特朗普不仅质疑北约的资金基础,甚至质疑其核心目的(基于《华盛顿条约》第5条的集体防御)。随着拜登接替特朗普,问题不再是知道新政府可能在多大程度上逆转自主主义潮流,而是决定在多大程度上能够或应该在独立与伙伴关系之间建立新的平衡。然后,在2022年2月24日,也就是拜登上任两年之后,俄罗斯入侵了乌克兰。俄罗斯-乌克兰战争导致了欧盟-北约关系展开的一个完全不同的背景(Casier, 2023)。在拜登任期的最后两年里,美国和欧盟经历了一场军事和战略上的交叉冲突。美国在监督战争准备工作的外交层面上一直占据绝对主导地位,在向基辅提供武器方面,美国虽然相对克制,但也在早期发挥了主导作用,在准备移交的军事装备类型方面,美国逐渐变得更加大胆。与此同时,拜登完全排除了派遣美国地面部队或接纳乌克兰加入北约的任何想法。事实上,拜登积极寻求将北约在危机中的形象降至最低。尽管这种新的东西方对抗似乎突出了北约的作用——瑞典和芬兰的仓促加入(Alberque和Schreer, 2022年)加强了北约的作用——但实际上,北约本身更多地充当了一个联络机制,而不是一个执行机构。另一方面,欧盟完全没有参与关于战争的讨论,虽然在组织向乌克兰转移武器方面进展缓慢,但在财政承诺方面逐渐超过了美国[基尔世界经济研究所(KIWE), 2025]。它还敦促乌克兰加入北约,并向乌克兰部署欧洲军队。然而,欧洲对乌克兰的支持绝大多数来自成员国,而不是欧盟本身(johnson - nogues and Leso, 2025)。此外,它建立在美国对这一事业的持久承诺的基础上,而这一关键因素逐渐成为美国国内政治的牺牲品。拜登政府表示将“不惜一切代价”支持乌克兰,但对最终结果或解决方案没有任何设想。它的目的是帮助乌克兰战斗,而不是取胜(Mackinnon, 2024)
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Jcms-Journal of Common Market Studies
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