首页 > 最新文献

Population and Development Review最新文献

英文 中文
Demographic Systems of Medieval Italy (6th–15th century AD) 中世纪意大利的人口系统(公元 6-15 世纪)
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-03-08 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12611
Irene Barbiera, Gianpiero Dalla‐Zuanna
In this article, we bring together a variety of studies, both old and new, to examine continuity and change in population dynamics in Italy during the medieval millennium (476–1492 AD). Though the available data are often sporadic and should be interpreted with great caution, it is possible to clarify certain dynamics, which can be useful for guiding future research. First, population fluctuations were not impacted by migration into or out of Italy. Second, medieval Italy was characterized by a high‐pressure demographic regime: e0 was around 20 years, with high adult mortality, and the birth rate was around 50 per mill. Third, despite high mortality, the Italian population grew (+50 percent) from the ninth century to 1347, mainly—but not exclusively—due to the absence of plague. Fourth, the stagnant population of the periods between the sixth and the eighth centuries and the 14th and 16th centuries was determined by the recurrent outbreaks of plague. Fifth, the population stagnation during the first and the last medieval centuries is also partly related to the increase in age at first marriage, while the demographic growth between the ninth and mid‐14th century is possibly connected to the decrease in age at first marriage among women. Sixth, the vitality of the medieval Italian population was partly ensured by a high rate of remarriage among widows. Seventh, data on statures show that mortality levels were determined by epidemic factors, rather than living standards. Finally, when the plague ceased in Europe in the middle of the Early Modern Age, adult survival was significantly higher than in the ancient and medieval centuries, despite the fact that neither hygienic‐sanitary nor epidemiological conditions, and certainly not nutrition, were better than in the centuries preceding the Black Death.
在这篇文章中,我们汇集了各种新老研究成果,探讨了中世纪千年(公元 476-1492 年)意大利人口动态的连续性和变化。虽然现有的数据往往是零星的,在解释时应非常谨慎,但我们还是有可能澄清某些动态变化,这对指导未来的研究很有帮助。首先,人口波动没有受到迁入或迁出意大利的影响。其次,中世纪的意大利具有高压人口制度的特点:e0 约为 20 年,成人死亡率高,出生率约为 50%。第三,尽管死亡率很高,但从 9 世纪到 1347 年,意大利人口还是增长了(+50%),这主要(但不完全)是因为没有发生瘟疫。第四,6 世纪至 8 世纪以及 14 世纪至 16 世纪期间的人口停滞是由瘟疫的反复爆发决定的。第五,中世纪第一和最后几个世纪的人口停滞也与初婚年龄的提高有部分关系,而九世纪至十四世纪中叶的人口增长则可能与女性初婚年龄的降低有关。第六,中世纪意大利人口的活力在一定程度上得益于寡妇的高再婚率。第七,有关身材的数据表明,死亡率是由流行病因素而非生活水平决定的。最后,当鼠疫于近代早期中期在欧洲停止流行时,成人的存活率明显高于古代和中世纪,尽管卫生条件和流行病学条件都不比黑死病之前的几个世纪好,营养状况当然也不比黑死病之前的几个世纪好。
{"title":"Demographic Systems of Medieval Italy (6th–15th century AD)","authors":"Irene Barbiera, Gianpiero Dalla‐Zuanna","doi":"10.1111/padr.12611","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12611","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we bring together a variety of studies, both old and new, to examine continuity and change in population dynamics in Italy during the medieval millennium (476–1492 AD). Though the available data are often sporadic and should be interpreted with great caution, it is possible to clarify certain dynamics, which can be useful for guiding future research. First, population fluctuations were not impacted by migration into or out of Italy. Second, medieval Italy was characterized by a high‐pressure demographic regime: <jats:italic>e</jats:italic><jats:sub>0</jats:sub> was around 20 years, with high adult mortality, and the birth rate was around 50 per mill. Third, despite high mortality, the Italian population grew (+50 percent) from the ninth century to 1347, mainly—but not exclusively—due to the absence of plague. Fourth, the stagnant population of the periods between the sixth and the eighth centuries and the 14th and 16th centuries was determined by the recurrent outbreaks of plague. Fifth, the population stagnation during the first and the last medieval centuries is also partly related to the increase in age at first marriage, while the demographic growth between the ninth and mid‐14th century is possibly connected to the decrease in age at first marriage among women. Sixth, the vitality of the medieval Italian population was partly ensured by a high rate of remarriage among widows. Seventh, data on statures show that mortality levels were determined by epidemic factors, rather than living standards. Finally, when the plague ceased in Europe in the middle of the Early Modern Age, adult survival was significantly higher than in the ancient and medieval centuries, despite the fact that neither hygienic‐sanitary nor epidemiological conditions, and certainly not nutrition, were better than in the centuries preceding the Black Death.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"82 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140069835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
MichaelWoolcockInternational Development: Navigating Humanity's Greatest Challenge Polity, 2023, 200 p. $64.95. 迈克尔-伍尔科克国际发展:领航人类最大挑战 Polity,2023,200 页,64.95 美元。
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-03-06 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12618
JOSHUA WILDE
{"title":"MichaelWoolcockInternational Development: Navigating Humanity's Greatest Challenge Polity, 2023, 200 p. $64.95.","authors":"JOSHUA WILDE","doi":"10.1111/padr.12618","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12618","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140053628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 致谢
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-03-06 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12617
{"title":"ACKNOWLEDGMENTS","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/padr.12617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12617","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140053627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reconciling Family Aspirations and Paid Work in the European Union 在欧盟协调家庭愿望和有偿工作
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12615
{"title":"Reconciling Family Aspirations and Paid Work in the European Union","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/padr.12615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12615","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140015606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rural–Urban Migration and Fertility Ideation in Senegal: Comparing Returned, Current, and Future Migrants to Dakar to Rural Nonmigrants 塞内加尔的城乡迁移与生育观念:将返回达喀尔的移民、当前移民和未来移民与农村非移民进行比较
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12609
Yacine Boujija, Simona Bignami, John Sandberg
In low- and middle-income countries, significant differences in fertility beliefs between rural and urban areas arise from the differential timing and pace of fertility declines. Demographers have long hypothesized about the diffusion of these beliefs and behaviors from urban to rural areas, potentially via temporary rural–urban labor migration. In this paper, we investigate the association between temporary internal migration from rural Senegal to the capital city, Dakar, and differences in the fertility and contraceptive beliefs and preferences of migrants and nonmigrants. We test socialization, selection, and adaptation hypotheses by comparing the fertility ideation of current and returning migrants with that of nonmigrants and future migrants from their place of origin. Our results support selection effects, explaining half of the differences between nonmigrants and migrants. Once selection effects are removed, significant differences remain between nonmigrants and current or returning migrants. These differences are largely explained by two complementary measures of adaptation: years lived in Dakar and the number of ties to residents of that city. The results indicate that adaptation is as important, if not more so than selection in explaining differences between migrants and nonmigrants. This holds true even for returned migrants five years after their last migration spell. Of the two potential adaptation mechanisms explored, the time spent in Dakar generally explained adaptation better than ties to nonmigrants in Dakar. However, our complementary analyses do not rule out the importance of urban networks on fertility, as they contribute to migrant selection.
在低收入和中等收入国家,由于生育率下降的时间和速度不同,城乡之间的生育观念也存在显著差异。长期以来,人口学家一直假设这些观念和行为会从城市扩散到农村地区,可能是通过农村到城市的临时劳动力迁移实现的。在本文中,我们研究了从塞内加尔农村到首都达喀尔的临时国内移民与移民和非移民的生育和避孕观念及偏好差异之间的关联。我们通过比较当前移民和返乡移民的生育观念,以及非移民和原籍地未来移民的生育观念,检验了社会化、选择和适应假说。我们的结果支持选择效应,解释了非移民和移民之间一半的差异。一旦剔除了选择效应,非移民与当前或回国移民之间仍存在显著差异。这些差异在很大程度上是由两个互补的适应性衡量指标所解释的:在达喀尔生活的年数以及与该城市居民的联系数量。结果表明,在解释移民与非移民之间的差异方面,适应与选择同样重要,甚至更为重要。即使是在上一次移民五年后返回的移民也是如此。在所探讨的两种潜在适应机制中,在达喀尔度过的时间通常比与达喀尔非移民的联系更能解释适应性。然而,我们的补充分析并没有排除城市网络对生育率的重要性,因为它们有助于移民选择。
{"title":"Rural–Urban Migration and Fertility Ideation in Senegal: Comparing Returned, Current, and Future Migrants to Dakar to Rural Nonmigrants","authors":"Yacine Boujija, Simona Bignami, John Sandberg","doi":"10.1111/padr.12609","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12609","url":null,"abstract":"In low- and middle-income countries, significant differences in fertility beliefs between rural and urban areas arise from the differential timing and pace of fertility declines. Demographers have long hypothesized about the diffusion of these beliefs and behaviors from urban to rural areas, potentially via temporary rural–urban labor migration. In this paper, we investigate the association between temporary internal migration from rural Senegal to the capital city, Dakar, and differences in the fertility and contraceptive beliefs and preferences of migrants and nonmigrants. We test socialization, selection, and adaptation hypotheses by comparing the fertility ideation of current and returning migrants with that of nonmigrants and future migrants from their place of origin. Our results support selection effects, explaining half of the differences between nonmigrants and migrants. Once selection effects are removed, significant differences remain between nonmigrants and current or returning migrants. These differences are largely explained by two complementary measures of adaptation: years lived in Dakar and the number of ties to residents of that city. The results indicate that adaptation is as important, if not more so than selection in explaining differences between migrants and nonmigrants. This holds true even for returned migrants five years after their last migration spell. Of the two potential adaptation mechanisms explored, the time spent in Dakar generally explained adaptation better than ties to nonmigrants in Dakar. However, our complementary analyses do not rule out the importance of urban networks on fertility, as they contribute to migrant selection.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"83 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139988562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dustin Whitney Demographic Deception: Exposing the Overpopulation Myth and Building a Resilient Future Advantage Books, 2023, 148 p., $29.99. 达斯汀-惠特尼《人口欺骗》:揭露人口过剩神话,建设具有复原力的未来 Advantage Books,2023 年,148 页,29.99 美元。
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12616
STUART GIETEL-BASTEN
<p>When I picked up <i>Demographic Deception</i> by Dustin Whitney, I had a sense of unease. The title led me to expect a book in the “popular demography” genre; a genre to which unfortunately few trained demographers contribute and which has frequently been a platform for authors proffering “simple” demographic solutions to global ills, with sometimes far-reaching appeal and dangerous consequences.</p><p>However, it would be a mistake to judge this book by its title. Whitney (“a curious businessman with a particular interest in the future”) may be writing from outside of academic demography and in a popular style but his reading of the field is well-referenced and carefully navigated. He explores big demographic issues and their intersections with other global forces in an even-handed, restrained, and thoughtful way. The general argument of the book is that rather than being concerned about population growth (the eponymous “deception” in the title), we should rather focus more on depopulation and aging as we move further into the twenty-first century. The first few chapters consider population growth and its associated panic, then discuss how the population is modeled followed by the story of how the “population bomb” was diffused. Then follows a balanced comparison between the “good and bad news” about population decline and the typical responses which are proposed, namely raising fertility, engaging older persons, and immigration.</p><p>Unlike many other protagonists writing in the field, Whitney does not seem to be grounded in any strong political or cultural ideology but rather takes a fairly centrist view. This, in itself, is quite encouraging. The chapter on raising fertility is excellent on the downsides of pronatalism and ultimately lands on a rights-based approach. The approach is epitomized by the quote by Shepherd and Li that “While having a child should be everyone's right, it isn't anyone's responsibility.” The chapter on enabling work in older ages is a wide-ranging consideration of the barriers to work as part of older age and what can be done to remove them such as tackling agism head-on, embracing gerontechnology, adapting work systems, and so on. While many writers with more nationalistic tendencies bristle at the idea of immigration as potentially mitigating some of the effects of population aging, Whitney is more open to maximizing the potential role of immigration in offsetting some of the economic and social challenges of population aging and decline, embracing the idea of a kind of global HR firm which ‘recruits, prepares, places, protects’ migrant workers. I really appreciated the chapter on the role of business, too; this is an often-overlooked aspect in popular discussions of falling birth rates which usually lay all of the blame (and responsibility for change) on either governments or families. Business, Whitney argues, has to get better at accommodating older workers, supporting working parents, making better use of
当我拿起达斯汀-惠特尼(Dustin Whitney)所著的《人口欺骗》(Demographic Deception)一书时,我有一种不安的感觉。书名让我以为这是一本 "通俗人口学 "类型的书;遗憾的是,很少有训练有素的人口学家为这一类型的书撰写文章,而这一类型的书经常成为作者为全球弊病提供 "简单 "人口学解决方案的平台,有时这种解决方案具有深远的吸引力和危险的后果。惠特尼("一个对未来特别感兴趣的好奇商人")的写作可能不属于人口学学术范畴,而且采用的是通俗风格,但他对该领域的解读有理有据,并经过了仔细推敲。他以平和、克制和深思熟虑的方式探讨了重大人口问题及其与其他全球力量的交集。该书的总体论点是,随着我们进一步迈入 21 世纪,与其关注人口增长(书名中同名的 "欺骗"),不如更多地关注人口减少和老龄化。前几章探讨了人口增长及其相关的恐慌,然后讨论了如何建立人口模型,接着讲述了 "人口炸弹 "是如何扩散的。随后,作者对人口减少的 "好消息和坏消息 "进行了平衡的比较,并提出了典型的应对措施,即提高生育率、让老年人参与进来以及移民。这本身就相当令人鼓舞。关于提高生育率的一章很好地论述了代孕主义的弊端,并最终提出了一种基于权利的方法。谢泼德和李说:"虽然生孩子应该是每个人的权利,但并不是每个人的责任"。在 "使老年工作成为可能 "一章中,作者对老年工作的障碍以及如何消除这些障碍进行了广泛的思考,如迎头痛击老龄化、拥抱老年技术、调整工作制度等。许多具有民族主义倾向的作家对移民有可能缓解人口老龄化带来的某些影响的观点感到恼火,而惠特尼则更愿意最大限度地发挥移民在抵消人口老龄化和衰退所带来的某些经济和社会挑战方面的潜在作用,并接受了一种全球人力资源公司的观点,即 "招聘、准备、安置、保护 "移民工人。我也非常欣赏关于企业作用的章节;在有关出生率下降的流行讨论中,这往往是一个被忽视的方面,因为这些讨论通常将所有责任(和变革的责任)归咎于政府或家庭。惠特尼认为,企业必须更好地照顾年长的工人,支持有工作的父母,更好地利用技术,并在长期的结构性人口变化面前摒弃企业的短期行为!虽然不如维加德-斯基尔贝克(Vegard Skirbekk)的《衰落与繁荣!全球出生率的变化和少生孩子的好处》(Decline and Prosper!例如,学术人口学家可能希望看到更多关于不同人口预测及其基本方法的篇幅。不过,本书介绍了这些不同的未来,并让普通读者也能了解,这一点值得高度赞扬。因此,与《衰落与繁荣!》相比,《衰落与繁荣!》在全面性和细节方面可能有所欠缺,但《衰落与繁荣!》在可读性方面以及我认为在紧迫感方面都有所弥补。本书(及其基本论点)还可以通过进一步拓宽证据基础,纳入国民转移账户、前瞻性老龄化等概念,以及对生育偏好的探讨而得到加强。不过,我最喜欢的还是全书建设性、理性乐观的基调。在结论部分,惠特尼反思了人们在面对 "大问题 "时的悲观倾向:"这就是为什么这么多人在展望未来时会有如此深刻的悲观情绪......他们认为我们的问题无法解决,我们所有的好日子都过去了,事情只会变得更糟。更糟糕的是,我们会恐慌。惠特尼引用王峰的话说,"恐慌会导致仓促的政策和人类的悲剧。"然而,"采取这种立场","无助于我们避免与人口老龄化和人口减少相关的问题"。事实上,正如他继续说的那样,"在我们的整个历史....,我们已经解决了无数的大问题。没有理由相信我们不能解决--或者更好的是,避免--与社会老龄化和人口减少相关的问题"。不过,他也认识到这很难--至少在一个政治两极分化的世界里。 书名并不恰当,有些技术问题可能过于简单。然而,这并不是一本主要为学术人口学家设计的著作。事实上,这正是本书的意义所在。惠特尼对我们的论点进行了有效的提炼和传播,这是对学术人口学的帮助。也许我们中更多的人应该站出来做同样的事情。
{"title":"Dustin Whitney Demographic Deception: Exposing the Overpopulation Myth and Building a Resilient Future Advantage Books, 2023, 148 p., $29.99.","authors":"STUART GIETEL-BASTEN","doi":"10.1111/padr.12616","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12616","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;When I picked up &lt;i&gt;Demographic Deception&lt;/i&gt; by Dustin Whitney, I had a sense of unease. The title led me to expect a book in the “popular demography” genre; a genre to which unfortunately few trained demographers contribute and which has frequently been a platform for authors proffering “simple” demographic solutions to global ills, with sometimes far-reaching appeal and dangerous consequences.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000&lt;p&gt;However, it would be a mistake to judge this book by its title. Whitney (“a curious businessman with a particular interest in the future”) may be writing from outside of academic demography and in a popular style but his reading of the field is well-referenced and carefully navigated. He explores big demographic issues and their intersections with other global forces in an even-handed, restrained, and thoughtful way. The general argument of the book is that rather than being concerned about population growth (the eponymous “deception” in the title), we should rather focus more on depopulation and aging as we move further into the twenty-first century. The first few chapters consider population growth and its associated panic, then discuss how the population is modeled followed by the story of how the “population bomb” was diffused. Then follows a balanced comparison between the “good and bad news” about population decline and the typical responses which are proposed, namely raising fertility, engaging older persons, and immigration.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000&lt;p&gt;Unlike many other protagonists writing in the field, Whitney does not seem to be grounded in any strong political or cultural ideology but rather takes a fairly centrist view. This, in itself, is quite encouraging. The chapter on raising fertility is excellent on the downsides of pronatalism and ultimately lands on a rights-based approach. The approach is epitomized by the quote by Shepherd and Li that “While having a child should be everyone's right, it isn't anyone's responsibility.” The chapter on enabling work in older ages is a wide-ranging consideration of the barriers to work as part of older age and what can be done to remove them such as tackling agism head-on, embracing gerontechnology, adapting work systems, and so on. While many writers with more nationalistic tendencies bristle at the idea of immigration as potentially mitigating some of the effects of population aging, Whitney is more open to maximizing the potential role of immigration in offsetting some of the economic and social challenges of population aging and decline, embracing the idea of a kind of global HR firm which ‘recruits, prepares, places, protects’ migrant workers. I really appreciated the chapter on the role of business, too; this is an often-overlooked aspect in popular discussions of falling birth rates which usually lay all of the blame (and responsibility for change) on either governments or families. Business, Whitney argues, has to get better at accommodating older workers, supporting working parents, making better use of","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"466 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139988567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disruptions in Educational Progress and Fertility Dynamics by Educational Level: Unraveling the Link between Education and Fertility Stalls in Sub‐Saharan Africa 按教育水平划分的教育进步和生育动态中断:解读撒哈拉以南非洲教育与生育率停滞之间的联系
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12610
Bruno D. Schoumaker, David A. Sánchez‐Páez
Stalls in fertility decline have been found in many sub‐Saharan African countries. Our objective is to unravel the relationship between education and stalled fertility by analyzing the extent to which fertility stalls reflect a lack of changes in the educational composition of the population or are related to reversals and halts in the fertility decline within educational groups. Using the Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, we first estimate total fertility rates by educational level and examine how they have varied over time, especially during periods of stagnation. Then, we use the Kitagawa decomposition method to analyze changes in country‐level fertility rates. We show that fertility stalls tend to be a collective experience with fertility stalls found among all educational groups in most countries that have experienced a fertility stall. In contrast, composition effects either have no or a limited impact on fertility stalls. However, slow educational progress made some countries more vulnerable to stalls.
在许多撒哈拉以南非洲国家都发现了生育率下降的停滞现象。我们的目标是通过分析生育率停滞在多大程度上反映了人口的教育构成缺乏变化,或与教育群体内生育率下降的逆转和停滞有关,从而揭示教育与生育率停滞之间的关系。利用人口与健康调查和多指标类集调查,我们首先估算了按教育水平划分的总生育率,并研究了它们随时间的变化,尤其是在停滞时期的变化。然后,我们使用北川分解法分析国家层面生育率的变化。我们发现,生育率停滞往往是一种集体经历,在大多数经历过生育率停滞的国家中,所有教育群体的生育率都出现了停滞。相比之下,构成效应对生育率停滞没有影响或影响有限。然而,教育进步缓慢使得一些国家更容易出现生育率停滞。
{"title":"Disruptions in Educational Progress and Fertility Dynamics by Educational Level: Unraveling the Link between Education and Fertility Stalls in Sub‐Saharan Africa","authors":"Bruno D. Schoumaker, David A. Sánchez‐Páez","doi":"10.1111/padr.12610","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12610","url":null,"abstract":"Stalls in fertility decline have been found in many sub‐Saharan African countries. Our objective is to unravel the relationship between education and stalled fertility by analyzing the extent to which fertility stalls reflect a lack of changes in the educational composition of the population or are related to reversals and halts in the fertility decline within educational groups. Using the Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, we first estimate total fertility rates by educational level and examine how they have varied over time, especially during periods of stagnation. Then, we use the Kitagawa decomposition method to analyze changes in country‐level fertility rates. We show that fertility stalls tend to be a collective experience with fertility stalls found among all educational groups in most countries that have experienced a fertility stall. In contrast, composition effects either have no or a limited impact on fertility stalls. However, slow educational progress made some countries more vulnerable to stalls.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139939033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Road Access, Fertility, and Child Health in Rural India 印度农村地区的道路交通、生育率和儿童健康
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12604
Aparajita Dasgupta, Anahita Karandikar, Devvrat Raghav
Expansion in access to public infrastructure can have varied, microlevel impacts. In this paper, we use a discrete and quasi-random change in the access to paved roads through a large-scale rural road construction program in India to study how road access impacts fertility decisions and investments in child health. We find that increased access to paved roads at the district level decreases fertility, improves investments in children, and lowers infant mortality. We also provide evidence that highlights the mechanisms that drive this effect. First, we show that local roads improve access to health care facilities and raise immunization rates, which reduces infant mortality. Then, we demonstrate that last-mile road connectivity has contrasting effects on employment across gender. Overall, the evidence suggests that rural roads can help accelerate demographic transition through their effects on fertility and infant mortality.
扩大公共基础设施的使用范围会产生不同的微观影响。在本文中,我们利用印度大规模农村道路建设项目中铺设道路的离散和准随机变化,来研究道路通达性如何影响生育决策和儿童健康投资。我们发现,在县一级增加铺设道路的通达性会降低生育率、改善对儿童的投资并降低婴儿死亡率。我们还提供了证据,突出说明了这种效应的驱动机制。首先,我们表明当地道路改善了医疗设施的使用,提高了免疫接种率,从而降低了婴儿死亡率。然后,我们证明最后一英里的道路连通性对不同性别的就业有着截然不同的影响。总之,这些证据表明,农村公路可以通过对生育率和婴儿死亡率的影响,帮助加速人口结构转型。
{"title":"Road Access, Fertility, and Child Health in Rural India","authors":"Aparajita Dasgupta, Anahita Karandikar, Devvrat Raghav","doi":"10.1111/padr.12604","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12604","url":null,"abstract":"Expansion in access to public infrastructure can have varied, microlevel impacts. In this paper, we use a discrete and quasi-random change in the access to paved roads through a large-scale rural road construction program in India to study how road access impacts fertility decisions and investments in child health. We find that increased access to paved roads at the district level decreases fertility, improves investments in children, and lowers infant mortality. We also provide evidence that highlights the mechanisms that drive this effect. First, we show that local roads improve access to health care facilities and raise immunization rates, which reduces infant mortality. Then, we demonstrate that last-mile road connectivity has contrasting effects on employment across gender. Overall, the evidence suggests that rural roads can help accelerate demographic transition through their effects on fertility and infant mortality.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"254 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139750373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trends in Living Arrangements Around the World 世界各地生活安排的趋势
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-02-04 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12603
Albert Esteve, David S. Reher
Most people coreside with other kin in private households while others live alone. The incidence of coresidence with kin and solo living varies noticeably across societies. Scholars have long theorized about the role of modernization and cultural change for living arrangements, suggesting a trend toward the nuclearization of households (coresidence only with primary kin) or solo living as societies attain higher levels of development. There is little empirical evidence about global variations in living arrangements and about how such variations unfold at different levels of development. Here we address these fundamental questions. Using IPUMS census microdata for 279 samples and 90 countries, we develop a new metric for assessing the part of the lifetime a person can expect to reside with primary kin, nonprimary kin, or alone assuming exposure rates, from birth to death, to the living arrangements observed in a given year. Results show that coresidence patterns differ substantially across societies, with exposure to primary kin alone and to solo living substantially higher at higher levels of development (as measured with Human Development Index [HDI]). They also reveal a sustained decline in coresidence with nonprimary kin and/or with others nearly everywhere, supporting the idea of an increasing importance of nuclear living arrangements. This trend is most pronounced at medium levels of HDI. At very high levels of development, nuclear family coresidence tends to be stalling or is in decline in favor of more time spent living alone and, rather unexpectedly, to a modest increase in exposure to nonprimary kin within the household. We suggest different interpretations for these results.
大多数人在私人家庭中与其他亲属同住,而其他人则独居。在不同的社会中,与亲属同住和独居的情况明显不同。长期以来,学者们对现代化和文化变迁在生活安排中的作用进行了理论分析,认为随着社会发展水平的提高,家庭核心化(只与主要亲属同住)或独居是一种趋势。关于全球生活安排的变化,以及这种变化在不同发展水平下是如何展开的,几乎没有经验证据。我们在此探讨这些基本问题。通过使用 279 个样本和 90 个国家的 IPUMS 人口普查微观数据,我们开发了一种新的衡量标准,用于评估一个人一生中与主要亲属、非主要亲属或单独居住的时间段,假定从出生到死亡的暴露率为某一年观察到的居住安排。结果表明,不同社会的核心居住模式大不相同,发展水平越高(以人类发展指数(HDI)衡量),仅与主要亲属居住和单独居住的风险就越大。研究还显示,几乎在所有地方,与非主要亲属和/或其他人的同住情况都在持续下降,这支持了核心生活安排日益重要的观点。这一趋势在人类发展指数处于中等水平时最为明显。在非常高的发展水平上,核心家庭同住的趋势趋于停滞或下降,而更多的时间用于独居,而且出乎意料的是,家庭中与非主要亲属的接触略有增加。我们对这些结果提出了不同的解释。
{"title":"Trends in Living Arrangements Around the World","authors":"Albert Esteve, David S. Reher","doi":"10.1111/padr.12603","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12603","url":null,"abstract":"Most people coreside with other kin in private households while others live alone. The incidence of coresidence with kin and solo living varies noticeably across societies. Scholars have long theorized about the role of modernization and cultural change for living arrangements, suggesting a trend toward the nuclearization of households (coresidence only with primary kin) or solo living as societies attain higher levels of development. There is little empirical evidence about global variations in living arrangements and about how such variations unfold at different levels of development. Here we address these fundamental questions. Using IPUMS census microdata for 279 samples and 90 countries, we develop a new metric for assessing the part of the lifetime a person can expect to reside with primary kin, nonprimary kin, or alone assuming exposure rates, from birth to death, to the living arrangements observed in a given year. Results show that coresidence patterns differ substantially across societies, with exposure to primary kin alone and to solo living substantially higher at higher levels of development (as measured with Human Development Index [HDI]). They also reveal a sustained decline in coresidence with nonprimary kin and/or with others nearly everywhere, supporting the idea of an increasing importance of nuclear living arrangements. This trend is most pronounced at medium levels of HDI. At very high levels of development, nuclear family coresidence tends to be stalling or is in decline in favor of more time spent living alone and, rather unexpectedly, to a modest increase in exposure to nonprimary kin within the household. We suggest different interpretations for these results.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139696317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Data and Trends in Assisted Suicide and Euthanasia, and Some Related Demographic Issues 辅助自杀和安乐死的数据和趋势,以及一些相关的人口问题
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-01-25 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12605
Asher D. Colombo, Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna
Although considerable gains in survival have been observed in developed countries, particularly in the last stretch of life, part of these additional years of life are lived in bad health. In this context, a number of actions/inactions that limit or may limit life span are becoming increasingly common. Demography and quantitative sociology are well-positioned to make a significant contribution to the measurement of the consistency of different end-of-life interventions, to the examination of differences over time, space and among different social groups, and to the analysis of the behaviors and attitudes of different stakeholders (the sufferers, their relatives, health care personnel, public opinion). We focus here on euthanasia and assisted suicide (EAS). First, we discuss changes in public opinion on EAS in developed countries. Second, we analyze the diffusion and temporal trends of EAS, with a particular focus on Switzerland, the Netherlands, and Belgium; three countries for which it is also possible to consider the connections between the diffusion of EAS and palliative care. Third, we consider several differential aspects of the spread of EAS (mainly by sex, age, and cause of death).
虽然在发达国家,尤其是在生命的最后阶段,存活率有了显著提高,但在这些额外的生命年限中,有一部分是在健康状况不佳的情况下度过的。在这种情况下,一些限制或可能限制寿命的行为/行动变得越来越普遍。人口学和定量社会学在衡量不同临终干预措施的一致性,研究不同时间、空间和不同社会群体之间的差异,以及分析不同利益相关者(患者、其亲属、医护人员、公众舆论)的行为和态度等方面都能做出重要贡献。我们在此重点讨论安乐死和协助自杀(EAS)。首先,我们讨论发达国家公众对安乐死和协助自杀(EAS)看法的变化。其次,我们分析了安乐死的传播和时间趋势,尤其关注瑞士、荷兰和比利时;在这三个国家,我们还可以考虑安乐死的传播与姑息关怀之间的联系。第三,我们考虑了EAS传播的几个不同方面(主要是性别、年龄和死因)。
{"title":"Data and Trends in Assisted Suicide and Euthanasia, and Some Related Demographic Issues","authors":"Asher D. Colombo, Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna","doi":"10.1111/padr.12605","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12605","url":null,"abstract":"Although considerable gains in survival have been observed in developed countries, particularly in the last stretch of life, part of these additional years of life are lived in bad health. In this context, a number of actions/inactions that limit or may limit life span are becoming increasingly common. Demography and quantitative sociology are well-positioned to make a significant contribution to the measurement of the consistency of different end-of-life interventions, to the examination of differences over time, space and among different social groups, and to the analysis of the behaviors and attitudes of different stakeholders (the sufferers, their relatives, health care personnel, public opinion). We focus here on euthanasia and assisted suicide (EAS). First, we discuss changes in public opinion on EAS in developed countries. Second, we analyze the diffusion and temporal trends of EAS, with a particular focus on Switzerland, the Netherlands, and Belgium; three countries for which it is also possible to consider the connections between the diffusion of EAS and palliative care. Third, we consider several differential aspects of the spread of EAS (mainly by sex, age, and cause of death).","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139568381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Population and Development Review
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1