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The Gendered Impacts of Partnership and Parenthood on Paid Work and Unpaid Work Time in Great Britain, 1992–2019 1992-2019 年伴侣关系和养育子女对英国有偿工作和无偿工作时间的性别影响
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12593
Muzhi Zhou, Man-Yee Kan
Using data from the British Household Panel Study and the UK Household Longitudinal Study (1992–2019), this study investigates the impacts of partnership and parenthood on women's and men's paid work and unpaid work time and how these impacts have changed in the last three decades in Great Britain. We applied two fixed-effect models—one conventional, one novel—with individual constants and slopes to account for the selection and longitudinal changes in time use. We found that the gender-traditionalizing effect of partnership on the use of time has weakened over the years. Marriage did not affect women's and men's paid work time, and since the 2010s, marriage no longer affect women's and men's time spent on housework differently. However, motherhood continues to reduce women's paid work time substantially, and the extent of this impact has remained unchanged over the previous three decades. Partnership and parenthood have resulted in minor changes to men's paid work and unpaid work time; the extent of their effects has likewise remained modest over the previous three decades. Our findings suggest that in Britain, the gender revolution of the division of labor among parents has stalled, and family policies have not successfully increased mothers’ paid work time and fathers’ unpaid work time.
本研究利用英国家庭面板研究(British Household Panel Study)和英国家庭纵向研究(UK Household Longitudinal Study)(1992-2019 年)的数据,调查了伴侣关系和父母身份对男女有偿工作和无偿工作时间的影响,以及这些影响在大不列颠过去三十年间的变化情况。我们采用了两个固定效应模型--一个是传统模型,一个是新颖模型--其中包含个人常数和斜率,以考虑时间使用的选择和纵向变化。我们发现,多年来,伴侣关系对时间使用的性别传统化效应已经减弱。婚姻没有影响女性和男性的有偿工作时间,而且自 2010 年代以来,婚姻不再对女性和男性的家务劳动时间产生不同影响。然而,做母亲继续大幅减少妇女的有偿工作时间,而且这种影响的程度在过去三十年中一直未变。伴侣关系和生儿育女对男性的有偿工作和无偿工作时间的影响较小;在过去的三十年中,其影响程度同样保持不变。我们的研究结果表明,在英国,父母分工的性别革命已经停滞,家庭政策并没有成功地增加母亲的有偿工作时间和父亲的无偿工作时间。
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引用次数: 0
Children of Separation: An International Profile 《分离的孩子:国际概况》
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-12-04 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12592
Zuzana Zilincikova, Jan Skopek, Thomas Leopold
This study offers a comprehensive international overview of children from separated families across 13 countries, with an emphasis on the European context. We investigate changes in the number of children experiencing parental separation over birth cohorts (1960–1989) and changes in their social composition using data from the Generations and Gender Survey and official statistics. Results on absolute numbers highlight the impact of demographic shifts and complement previous research that focused on the relative risk of experiencing parental separation. We show that declining fertility rates have, in most countries, mitigated the rise in the number of children affected by increasing separation rates. Moreover, a large majority of contemporary children of separation are born to higher-educated mothers, demonstrating that the spread of education across parent cohorts outweighed educational risk gradients in shaping the socioeconomic background of children of separation. These findings improve our demographic understanding of children of separation and inform policy targeting family disruption as a social problem and allocating resources to address it.
这项研究提供了13个国家离散家庭儿童的全面国际概况,重点是欧洲背景。我们调查了1960-1989年出生队列中经历父母分离的儿童数量的变化,以及他们的社会构成的变化,使用的数据来自世代与性别调查和官方统计数据。关于绝对数字的结果强调了人口变化的影响,并补充了先前关注经历父母分离的相对风险的研究。我们表明,在大多数国家,生育率的下降缓解了受分居率上升影响的儿童人数的增加。此外,绝大多数当代离异儿童的母亲受过高等教育,这表明,在塑造离异儿童的社会经济背景方面,教育在父母群体中的传播超过了教育风险梯度。这些发现提高了我们对分离儿童的人口统计学理解,并为将家庭破裂作为社会问题和分配资源来解决这一问题的政策提供了信息。
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引用次数: 0
Shifting Parental Age Differences in High-Income Countries: Insights and Implications 高收入国家父母年龄差异的变化:见解和影响
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12597
Christian Dudel, Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, Sebastian Klüsener
Age differences within couples are of considerable importance for the power relations between partners. These age differences become particularly relevant when couples transition to having a(nother) child, as such an event often results in a renegotiation of the gendered division of labor. Surprisingly, the literature on female empowerment and fertility postponement has so far paid little attention to parental age differences. This paper makes use of a new data set to present a demographic analysis of trends in parental age differences at childbirth in 15 high-income countries, covering a period in which all of these countries experienced changes in gender relations and fertility postponement. The general trends in rising mean ages at childbirth have evolved quite similarly among men and women. However, we demonstrate that these similarities hide previously unexplored and highly gendered disparities in parental age differences. Older mothers report much smaller mean parental age differences than younger mothers, and this age pattern among mothers has further polarized over time. By contrast, older fathers report larger parental age differences than younger fathers, while the disparities by age among fathers have not changed much over time. We discuss the relevance of our findings at both the individual and the societal level.
夫妻之间的年龄差异对夫妻之间的权力关系有着相当重要的影响。当夫妻过渡到有一个(另一个)孩子时,这些年龄差异变得尤为重要,因为这样的事件通常会导致对性别分工的重新谈判。令人惊讶的是,迄今为止,关于女性赋权和推迟生育的文献很少关注父母的年龄差异。本文利用一组新的数据,对15个高收入国家父母生育年龄差异的趋势进行了人口分析,涵盖了所有这些国家在性别关系和生育推迟方面发生变化的时期。在男性和女性中,平均生育年龄上升的总体趋势演变非常相似。然而,我们证明了这些相似性隐藏了以前未被探索的父母年龄差异和高度性别差异。与年轻母亲相比,年龄较大的母亲报告的平均年龄差异要小得多,而且随着时间的推移,母亲的这种年龄模式进一步两极分化。相比之下,年长的父亲比年轻的父亲报告的年龄差异更大,而父亲之间的年龄差异并没有随着时间的推移而改变。我们讨论了我们的发现在个人和社会层面的相关性。
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引用次数: 0
Jenny Trinitapoli An Epidemic of Uncertainty: Navigating HIV and Young Adulthood in Malawi University of Chicago Press, 2023, 288 p., $30.00. 珍妮Trinitapoli不确定的流行病:导航艾滋病毒和马拉维的青年成年芝加哥大学出版社,2023年,288页,$30.00。
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12599
Sanyu A. Mojola
<p><i>An Epidemic of Uncertainty</i> is a multicourse gourmet meal for demographers. It is a book to settle into, chew on, and ruminate over with good friends. Empirically dense, theoretically rich, and analytically smart, the book moves the reader effortlessly between sophisticated quantitative analyses and everyday village and town life in and around Balaka, Malawi. And it brings demography, in all its interdisciplinary and conceptual splendor, to bear on the new subfield, Jenny Trinitapoli, the book's author, wants to usher in: Uncertainty Demography. The book examines how a generation of Malawian youth, who have lived their entire lives under the shadow of a severe HIV and AIDS epidemic, are transitioning to adulthood and navigating the stuff of life—beginning and ending relationships, having children, and for some, getting and living with HIV, and dying—from AIDS or giving birth or lightning strikes, among other causes of death.</p><p>The book is based on an extraordinary and groundbreaking dataset, Tsologo La Thanzi (TLT: Healthy Futures in Chichewa), codesigned and led by Trinitapoli and her close collaborator Sara Yeatman. The impetus for the study was the observation that in Malawi, as in several other African countries, first sex, first marriage, and first birth unfold over a two-year period. Yet most major African surveys, most notably the Demographic and Health Surveys, collect cross-sectional data every five years, limiting analyses of the transition to adulthood. TLT (https://tsogololathanzi.uchicago.edu/, which is publicly available) is a longitudinal survey following respondents—young women and their male partners—over a 10-year period, from ages 15–25 to ages 25–35. The core survey included eight waves of data collected between 2009 and 2011, with each wave collected every four months. There was some attrition from the original sample—1505 respondents in 2009, to 1200 respondents in 2015 (80 percent of the original sample) to 1022 respondents in 2019 (68 percent) (p. 51). This led to a refresher sample collection in 2012 and 2019. Finally, there was follow-up data collection in 2015 and 2019. The survey, described in Chapter 2, is not just exceptional in its intensity but also in its creativity and methodological ambition. Data collection methods ranged from a standard survey questionnaire to biomarker data collection involving pregnancy and HIV testing, to card sorts, cognition tests, relationship scripts, literacy tests, vignettes, personal fieldnotes, first- and second-hand ethnographic observations, and a primary method for measuring uncertainty—bean counts. (Respondents could place up to 10 beans corresponding to their assessment of the probability of different event occurrences).</p><p>At the heart of the book is the argument that individual uncertainty, and how people make sense of it, has consequences for their subsequent actions, and further that individual uncertainty aggregates and works as a powerful social force an
对人口统计学家来说,《不确定性的流行》是一顿多道菜的美食。这是一本值得和好朋友一起细细品味、细细咀嚼、反复思考的书。经验丰富,理论丰富,分析聪明,这本书让读者毫不费力地在复杂的定量分析和马拉维巴拉卡及其周围的日常乡村和城镇生活之间移动。这本书的作者珍妮·特里尼塔波利(Jenny Trinitapoli)想要引入一个新的子领域:不确定性人口学(Uncertainty demography),它将人口学带入了跨学科和概念上的辉煌。这本书探讨了马拉维的一代青年,他们一生都生活在严重的艾滋病毒和艾滋病的阴影下,如何过渡到成年,如何在生活中找到方向——开始和结束关系,生孩子,对一些人来说,感染艾滋病毒,生活在艾滋病毒中,死于艾滋病、分娩或雷击,以及其他死亡原因。这本书是基于一个非凡的、开创性的数据集,Tsologo La Thanzi (TLT: Chichewa的健康未来),由Trinitapoli和她的亲密合作者Sara Yeatman共同设计和领导。这项研究的动机是观察到在马拉维,和其他几个非洲国家一样,第一次性行为、第一次婚姻和第一次生育在两年的时间内展开。然而,大多数主要的非洲调查,尤其是人口和健康调查,每五年收集一次横断面数据,限制了对向成年过渡的分析。TLT (https://tsogololathanzi.uchicago.edu/,可公开获取)是一项纵向调查,调查对象为15-25岁至25-35岁的年轻女性及其男性伴侣。核心调查包括2009年至2011年间收集的八波数据,每波数据每四个月收集一次。原始样本有所减少——2009年有1505名受访者,2015年有1200名受访者(占原始样本的80%),2019年有1022名受访者(占原始样本的68%)(第51页)。这导致了2012年和2019年的更新样本收集。最后,在2015年和2019年进行了后续数据收集。在第2章中描述的调查不仅在其强度上,而且在其创造性和方法论上的野心上都是例外的。数据收集方法包括从标准调查问卷到涉及怀孕和艾滋病毒检测的生物标志物数据收集,再到卡片分类、认知测试、关系脚本、识字测试、小短文、个人实地记录、第一手和二手人种学观察,以及测量不确定性的主要方法——豆子计数。(受访者可以根据他们对不同事件发生概率的评估,最多放置10颗豆子)。本书的核心论点是,个人的不确定性,以及人们如何理解这种不确定性,会对他们随后的行为产生影响,进一步说,个人的不确定性聚集在一起,成为一股强大的社会力量,是人口水平上人口变化的主要驱动力。巴拉卡的案例很有启发性:艾滋病毒流行的背景是,在生计、粮食不安全以及其他原因造成的发病率和死亡率方面,存在着大量其他重大和更直接的生活不确定性。Trinitapoli以不确定性为出发点,对调查问题的标准回答“不知道”,表明不知道如何影响人口水平的结果。她通过测量不确定性,然后在随后的调查中检查反应和结果来证明这一点。也许书中最大的主张是,不确定性比确定性更能推动社会行动。这本书令人信服地表明,对于马拉维的年轻人来说,它加速了人生历程的转变——结婚、离婚、成为父母——推动了一种“关系搅动”,使他们在经历婚姻制度的过程中面临感染和传播艾滋病毒的风险。这本书令人信服地指出,不理解兴趣现象的不确定性——“不知道”或“已知的未知”——可能导致对兴趣现象的误解,并错过了它塑造个人和群体动态的重要方式。例如,在第四章和第五章中描述的艾滋病毒不确定的情况下,Trinitapoli发现研究中近40%的年轻人不确定他们的艾滋病毒状况。此外,在整个研究过程中,她发现人们不仅在不确定的时期(与永久的“忧虑阶层”相反,第103页)进出,而且有一半的样本在不同的时间点经历了“严重的不确定”(定义为- 4到6个豆子,在1-10的范围内),尽管巴拉卡的艾滋病毒感染率为14%。换句话说,HIV不确定性流行病比HIV流行病更大。 Trinitapoli发现,非常频繁的测试(对参与者样本来说,在两年多的时间里每四个月一次)对人口水平的不确定性没有影响。具有讽刺意味的是,只有检测呈阳性才会导致hiv相关的确定性。艾滋病毒的不确定性在人口统计学上也很重要。随着时间的推移,她发现这导致了生育的加速,而不确定性的增加与更糟糕的自我评估健康、更多的病假和更多的抑郁有关。事实上,她的结论是,HIV的不确定性,不仅仅是阳性,是“一种临床相关的情况”。221)。HIV的不确定性源于关系的不确定性,在第6章和第7章中进行了检验。巴拉卡的特点是普遍婚姻(95%的年轻女性在研究期间至少结过一次婚),几乎40%的人离婚和/或再婚一次或多次(第138-139页)。从2012年开始,每段关系的转变都增加了感染艾滋病毒的风险,超过20%的离婚和再婚女性携带艾滋病毒,是第一次婚姻中女性的两倍多(第141页)。关系的动荡是由对伴侣忠诚的高度不信任、怀疑和焦虑所驱动的。对感染艾滋病毒的恐惧和手机的广泛使用放大了这一点——使用手机的人比不使用手机的人更怀疑他们的伴侣。在第8章中,Trinitapoli接着考虑了更大的“死亡率景观”,将艾滋病毒/艾滋病置于背景中。本章考察了婴儿和成人死亡率的大规模下降与日常死亡观念之间的相互作用,即个人、家庭和村庄层面上所谓的“丧礼鼓声”。到2019年,近一半(44%)的TLT样本失去了一个兄弟姐妹,在整个研究期间,参与者每月至少参加一次葬礼。在2019年的调查中,40%的人每月参加两次或两次以上的葬礼(第190页)。因此,尽管人口死亡率下降,但在日常生活中,死亡率仍然是年轻人不确定的主要来源。在本章和其他章节中,这本书提出了一个重要的案例,即认真对待“人口喋喋不休”或对人口事件的实地看法的重要性;通过在日常事件和调查结果之间来回穿梭,它显示了它们对年轻人的生命历程过渡决定和轨迹有多么重要。书中关于人口的讨论大多来自“格特鲁德”所写的人种学观察。我们知道她是马拉维人,是一位“杰出的研究助理”,而且她的记忆力很好,但我们也被告知,“格特鲁德的私人生活并没有在这里展出”(第45页)。这里有一个道德层面,这是很好的,但读者也留下了几个问题。她来自什么文化或社会阶层?例如,我很惊讶的是,她竟然不知道她需要带一条围巾,以防她在葬礼上不得不把自己裹起来(第192页)——这种做法是这个民族独有的吗?她来自的地方死亡率更低吗?她觉得巴拉卡有什么熟悉或陌生的地方?村民们认为她在那里做什么?她又是如何决定每天写些什么呢?知道这一点将有助于读者更好地理解他们正在观察的眼睛,并逐渐理解巴拉卡。更广泛地说,读者可能想知道,实地记录是如何分析的?将各种数据组件巧妙地编织到书中的分析过程是什么?对这些问题的方法论补充将进一步丰富本书的贡献。对追求不确定性人口学感兴趣的读者将得到第3章的帮助,第3章对以前关于不确定性的人口统计工作进行了丰富的,尽管在很大程度上不加批判的文献回顾,并提供了现象和子领域的工作定义。然而,这一章不太清楚这一领域的前沿在哪里,特别是这个项目是如何在这些文献中定位的,以及留给未来人口统计学家的问题或空白。这本书一定会引起千家万户的兴趣。我希望Trinitapoli计划出一篇配套文章,作为其他人的指南。最后,这本书的政策含义是巨大的。在第9章中,该书讨论了
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引用次数: 0
Jeff Goodell The Heat Will Kill You First: Life and Death on a Scorched Planet Little Brown and Company, 2023, 400 p., $29.00 杰夫·古德尔:《高温会先杀死你:焦化星球上的生与死》,利特布朗出版社,2023年,400便士,29.00美元
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12598
Risto Conte Keivabu
<p>In 2023, the Earth experienced unprecedented high temperatures and endured the hottest summer documented since 1880. The extreme temperatures coincided with the publication of Jeff Goodell's <i>The Heat Will Kill You First: Life and Death on a Scorched Planet</i>. The book is essential and accessible reading on the dangers presented by heat for human populations, a guide to the actions needed to reduce these risks, and an inspiration for further research into the implications of global warming.</p><p>Goodell is a renowned climate journalist who has written extensively on the topic of climate change, including earlier books on the coal mining industry, climate mitigation, geoengineering, and rising sea levels. In <i>The Heat Will Kill You First</i>, Goodell turns his attention to heat waves, aiming to “convince you to think about heat in a different way” (p. 19). Goodell begins by describing how heat is “invisible” compared with other environmental disasters such as floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes. Those events are sudden and traumatizing and leave a durable mark on the territory and community. While other natural disasters are given names—to support documentation, social memory, and record-keeping—heat waves are unnamed and are sometimes even seen positively, as holiday weather. Despite its relative invisibility compared with other disasters, heat is responsible for the highest yearly death toll attributable to an environmental disaster in some countries. The human thermoregulatory system can fail when exposed to high temperatures for a prolonged time, leading to hyperthermia, heatstroke, and death. Through multiple real-life examples, Goodell shows how heat is a pervasive force that infiltrates homes, exploits vulnerabilities, and proves especially detrimental for those unable to shield themselves.</p><p>Goodell pays particular attention to how the impact of heat waves exacerbates social inequalities. For instance, the coexistence of medical conditions such as cardiorespiratory disease or diabetes reduces peoples’ ability to thermoregulate during heat waves. The prevalence of such conditions is a major factor explaining the higher death toll caused by extreme heat in older adults. Goodell shows that age is not the only factor determining increased health risks during a heat wave. For people at younger ages, heat waves remain a major health threat, in particular for those who downplay its risks and do not take precautions, and for those who cannot afford air conditioning or insulation. Socioeconomic status and employment conditions affect the risks posed to individuals by a heat wave. For example, Goodell describes the high exposure of agricultural workers to heat waves and the necessity of adaptation measures to avoid fatalities. Such measures vary in their accessibility or availability creating inequalities in this sector.</p><p>Goodell dedicates ample space to the subject of adaptation to heat and the limits of such measures. One inf
2023年,地球经历了前所未有的高温,经历了自1880年以来最热的夏天。极端气温恰逢杰夫·古德尔的《高温首先会杀死你:焦化星球上的生与死》出版。这本书是关于热量给人类带来的危险的基本和易于理解的读物,是减少这些风险所需行动的指南,并为进一步研究全球变暖的影响提供了灵感。古德尔是一位著名的气候记者,他撰写了大量关于气候变化的文章,包括早期关于煤炭采矿业、气候减缓、地球工程和海平面上升的书籍。在《高温会先杀死你》一书中,古德尔将注意力转向热浪,旨在“说服你以不同的方式思考高温”(第19页)。古德尔首先描述了与洪水、飓风和地震等其他环境灾害相比,高温是如何“看不见”的。这些事件是突然的,创伤性的,在领土和社区留下了持久的印记。当其他自然灾害被命名时——为了支持文献记录、社会记忆和记录保存——热浪没有命名,有时甚至被正面看待,作为假日天气。尽管与其他灾害相比,它相对不显眼,但在一些国家,每年因环境灾害造成的死亡人数最高。人体体温调节系统在长时间暴露在高温下时可能失灵,导致体温过高、中暑和死亡。通过多个现实生活中的例子,古德尔展示了热量是如何渗透到家庭中,利用漏洞,并证明对那些无法保护自己的人尤其有害的。古德尔特别关注热浪是如何加剧社会不平等的。例如,心血管疾病或糖尿病等疾病的共存会降低人们在热浪中调节体温的能力。这种情况的普遍存在是解释老年人因极端高温而死亡人数较高的一个主要因素。古德尔表示,年龄并不是决定热浪期间健康风险增加的唯一因素。对于年龄较小的人来说,热浪仍然是一个主要的健康威胁,特别是对于那些低估其风险和不采取预防措施的人,以及那些买不起空调或隔热材料的人。社会经济地位和就业条件影响热浪对个人构成的风险。例如,古德尔描述了农业工人对热浪的高度暴露以及采取适应措施以避免死亡的必要性。这些措施的可及性或可用性各不相同,造成了该部门的不平等。古德尔用大量篇幅论述了适应高温的问题以及这些措施的局限性。其中一个内容丰富的章节围绕着空调的发明和广泛采用展开,尤其是在美国。空调可以让那些买得起空调的人从炎热的气温中解脱出来,但这可能会加剧温暖地区健康和死亡率的不平等。此外,空调并不是一个完整的解决方案。在长时间的高温天气和空调的广泛使用期间,电网线路承受着很高的压力,一旦出现故障,可能会使整个城市瘫痪。古德尔在书中讨论的其他适应性措施与城市在日益城市化和日益炎热的世界中面临的挑战有关。城市热岛的形成使城市处于危险之中,加剧了城乡在健康方面的不平等。城市热岛是由于有限的植被、非反射表面、城市峡谷效应和人类活动等因素导致城市热量释放减少,使城市比拥有更多绿地和水体的农村地区更温暖。书中讨论的一些解决方案与城市绿化和屋顶白色粉刷有关,但古德尔描述了这些创新如何面临一些障碍。城市绿化可以有效地提供荫凉和减少热岛,但在缺水和炎热的地区具有挑战性。在建筑物的建筑特征不易改变的历史中心,屋顶彩绘可能不适合。迁移模式也受到温度异常的严重影响。古德尔描述了一种矛盾的现象,这种现象与美国国内移民人数的增加有关,这些移民进入了气候风险较高的地区。特别是,受热浪和海平面上升严重影响的南方几个地区,随着人们退休到更温暖的气候,人口增长幅度更大。不断增长的人口和不断升级的气候风险可能在未来对这些地区构成重大挑战。 相反,对于日益遭受气候变化后果的经济上处于不利地位的人来说,移民往往是逃避恶劣气候条件的最终解决办法,因为恶劣气候条件使农业等某些经济活动无法进行。与此同时,由于天气条件的恶化,迁徙路径变得越来越危险和不切实际。古德尔的书涵盖了人口学者特别关注的与热量和人类有关的三个主要主题:热浪日益普遍及其对人口结果的广泛影响;适应措施的重要性和复杂性;以及由于气候引发的挑战而扩大的现有社会人口不平等。近年来,关于热浪影响的学术研究越来越多。最近的一项研究表明,造成约7万人死亡的2003年欧洲灾难性热浪是一个重要的转折点,导致有关温度相关死亡率和发病率的研究增加(Campbell et al., 2018)。2022年,热浪导致欧洲约6万人死亡,这表明热浪的影响仍然是致命的,这引发了人们对个人适应气温上升能力的担忧(Ballester et al., 2023)。热浪的日益普遍使得研究气候变化对人口的影响尤为紧迫。古德尔为人口学者提供了新颖的视角,深入研究了现有人口研究中相对未被探索的话题。他强调了气候变化如何创造有利于疾病媒介(如蚊子和蜱虫)传播的环境。这可能导致登革热、莱姆病和疟疾等疾病的更广泛分布,对公共卫生和人类死亡率构成新的挑战。此外,书中强调的一个重要研究领域是气候变化归因,旨在了解特定的环境灾害是由自然气候变化引起的,还是由人类活动和温室气体排放决定的。需要对这一主题进行更多的研究,以补充现有的研究,计算碳的死亡成本(二氧化碳排放造成的死亡人数)(Bressler, 2021)和估算由人类主导的气候变化决定的与热有关的死亡负担(Vicedo-Cabrera等人,2021)。必须进一步研究人为气候变化的人口和健康成本,以及减缓气候变化以限制这种影响的潜力。虽然古德尔的书讨论了高温对迁徙、死亡率和发病率的影响,但它并没有深入探讨高温对生育率、围产期和孕产妇健康的影响。与死亡率相比,关于热量对这些结果影响的研究更为有限。尽管最近人们对热对生育能力和生育结果的影响感兴趣,但关于这一主题仍有许多未解决的问题(Barreca等人,2018;Chersich et al., 2020;豪伊杜,豪伊杜2022)。温度与生育能力之间的联系机制仍在争论中,这对于理解在一个低生育率和人口老龄化的世界里,温度如何影响生殖健康和行为至关重要。这本书还可以更深入地探讨多种环境灾害同时影响人口时对公共卫生和人口动态的复合影响。这种复合影响在热浪与野火或洪水事件同时发生的地区尤为明显,可能会放大对公共卫生结果的影响。这本公共科学书籍读起来毫不费力,以新闻风格写成,将科学证据与遭受高温负面影响的个人的生活经历相结合。每一章都是一个独立的故事,深入讲述了高温如何影响生活的一个特定方面,从农业工作和媒介传播疾病的传播,到在沸腾的城市中生存和空调的发明,使本书成为一本容易参考的书。因此,它为普通大众和专家读者提供了一个深刻的阅读,强调了地球上人类生命面临的紧迫挑战。正如这本书引人入胜的标题所反映的那样,高温的普遍影响将不可避免地触及我们所有人,迫使我们努力解决其含义。
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引用次数: 0
Claudia Finotelli and Irene Ponzo (Eds.) Migration Control Logics and Strategies in Europe: A North-South Comparison Springer International, 2023, xiv + 340 p., $59.99 (Open Access online). 克劳迪娅·菲诺泰利和艾琳·庞佐(主编)欧洲的移民控制逻辑和策略:一个南北比较施普林格国际出版社,2023,xiv + 340 p., 59.99美元(在线开放获取)。
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12600
<p>The European Union's migration policy, as it plays out, is far from a coherent, deliberated program designed in Brussels or Strasbourg. But nor is it an amalgam of the separate policies on admission and residence, varying in effectiveness, of autonomous member states. Between these two figments, however, there is a widely held depiction of the EU reality: that of a North-South migration policy divide in which the disciplined northern member states coexist with a “soft underbelly” of lax southern states, haplessly policing the Mediterranean front-lines—and shepherding migrants northward. This collection of case studies is an extended rejection of such a view. Its contributors illustrate the evolving aims and practices of migration governance among selected countries across the EU. There are 15 chapters, organized in thematic sections covering visa policy, externalization (offshoring) of migrant selection, regularization (usually amnesty) for irregular entrants, labor migration, “welfare chauvinism” (restrictions on migrant eligibility for welfare benefits), and asylum procedures. The editors draw the contents together in introductory and concluding chapters, identifying fields where harmonization is in train and others that are insistently idiosyncratic—finding, in sum, that the European migration system is “a complex, ambiguous reality, where convergence dynamics must come to terms with persisting variance.”</p><p>One source of complexity and ambiguity is the elusiveness of the target. In the last two decades the migration regime has experienced surging numbers of workers from Eastern Europe, the Syrian refugee crisis, burgeoning numbers attempting the hazardous Mediterranean crossings, and the massed Ukraine war exodus, as well as the effects of the Great Recession and, lately, Covid. Country impacts and responses have necessarily depended on specific economic and geopolitical circumstances, only later reflected in European Commission dictates such as the 2020 New Pact on Migration and Asylum. The use of development aid conditioned on migrant deterrence as a policy instrument is one case in point, begun initially in bilateral agreements between Spain (and then Italy and France) and individual African countries and later taken up by the Commission. (Reciprocally, migrant transit and origin countries have found that their control of numbers gave them a means of exacting a “geographical rent” from the EU.) On asylum, the basic problem is the conflict between the legal principle—increasingly seen as ill-suited to the scale of the problem—and the political imperative to limit inflows. The procedures to determine refugee status are lengthy and administrative decisions denying asylum are frequently overturned by the courts. Orders to leave are widely disregarded. (Germany, the most effective country at carrying out such orders, expels just 24 percent; France, 11 percent.) Irregular migration aside from asylum-seeking is periodically rewarded with s
欧盟的移民政策,就目前的情况来看,远不是布鲁塞尔或斯特拉斯堡设计的一个连贯的、经过深思熟虑的计划。但它也不是独立成员国各自的入境和居留政策(其有效性各不相同)的混合体。然而,在这两种虚构之间,有一种对欧盟现实的普遍看法:南北移民政策分歧,纪律严守的北部成员国与松散的南部国家的“软肋”共存,不幸地维持地中海前线的治安,并引导移民向北。本文收集的案例研究是对这种观点的进一步否定。它的贡献者说明了欧盟选定国家之间移民治理的不断发展的目标和实践。全书有15章,按主题部分组织,涵盖签证政策、移民选择的外部化(离岸)、非正规入境者的正规化(通常是大赦)、劳工移民、“福利沙文主义”(限制移民获得福利的资格)和庇护程序。编辑们在导论和结束语两章中将内容整合在一起,确定了正在协调的领域和坚持特立独行的领域——总之,他们发现,欧洲移民体系是“一个复杂、模糊的现实,趋同的动力必须与持续存在的差异达成妥协。”复杂性和模糊性的一个来源是目标的难以捉摸性。在过去二十年中,移民制度经历了东欧工人人数激增、叙利亚难民危机、试图穿越危险的地中海的人数激增、乌克兰战争导致的大规模外逃,以及大衰退和最近的新冠疫情的影响。国家的影响和反应必然取决于具体的经济和地缘政治环境,这一点后来才反映在欧盟委员会的指令中,例如2020年的《移民和庇护新公约》。以阻止移徙为条件的发展援助作为一种政策工具就是一个很好的例子,这种援助最初是在西班牙(然后是意大利和法国)与个别非洲国家之间的双边协定中开始的,后来由委员会采用。(反过来,移民过境国和移民原籍国发现,它们对移民数量的控制让它们有了向欧盟索取“地理租金”的手段。)在难民问题上,基本的问题是法律原则与限制难民流入的政治要求之间的冲突。法律原则越来越被认为不适合这个问题的规模。确定难民地位的程序漫长,拒绝庇护的行政决定经常被法院推翻。离开的命令被普遍无视。(在执行此类命令方面效率最高的德国,只驱逐了24%的人;法国,11%。)除了寻求庇护外,非正规移徙还定期得到某种形式的正规化奖励。很大一部分欧盟移民来自欧盟内部,大多是2000年代欧盟扩大后的东欧人。另一部分是南方的北方退休人员。延迟或限制移民获得福利国家福利的权利是一种常见的威慑或抵消成本的手段。(英国退欧是一种极端的威慑。)当然,移民工人也从更远的地方寻求,提出了“来源国特殊主义”的问题。德国曾一度对移民的种族血统视而不见,只凭资格招聘,但现在已经退回到早期的做法,现在更青睐来自西巴尔干的工人。其他与欧盟劳动力市场有特殊联系的国家(尤其是西班牙)是马格里布国家:阿尔及利亚、摩洛哥和突尼斯。该卷提供了一个复杂的处理移民主题的编辑已经选择,但并不声称涵盖欧盟的移民制度的所有方面,其中有南北分歧的争议。有一个日益重要的问题值得我们考虑,那就是人们对不同种族和宗教的移民多样性以及对新移民绝对数量的不同态度——欧洲人口困境的隐现规模,“大更替”威胁的根源。克劳迪娅·菲诺泰利,政治学家,就职于马德里康普顿斯大学应用社会学系,意大利都灵国际与欧洲移民研究论坛(FIERI)研究员。政治社会学家Irene Ponzo是FIERI的副主任。作者来自欧洲的大学和研究机构。
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引用次数: 0
Resilience, Accelerated Aging, and Persistently Poor Health: Diverse Trajectories of Health in Malawi 弹性、加速老化和持续健康不良:马拉维不同的健康轨迹
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12590
Cung Truong Hoang, Iliana V. Kohler, Vikesh Amin, Jere R. Behrman, Hans-Peter Kohler
Individuals age at vastly different rates resulting in significant within-population heterogeneity in health and aging outcomes. This diversity in health and aging trajectories has rarely been investigated among low-income aging populations that have experienced substantial hardships throughout their lifecourses. Utilizing 2006–2019 data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health and estimating group-based trajectory models, our analyses identified three distinct lifecourse health trajectories: (1) comparatively good initial mental and physical health that persisted throughout the lifecourse (“resilient aging”), (2) relatively good initial mental and physical health that started to deteriorate during mid-adulthood (“accelerated aging”), and (3) poor initial mental and physical health that further declined over the lifecourse (“aging with persistently poor health”). For both physical and mental health, men were more likely to enjoy resilient aging than women. Predictors other than gender of trajectory membership sometimes confirmed, and sometimes contradicted, hypotheses derived from high-income country studies. Our analyses highlight the long arm of early life conditions and gender in determining aging trajectories and show that a nontrivial subpopulation is characterized by aging with persistently poor health. The study uncovers widening gaps in health outcomes between those who age with resilience and those who experience accelerated aging.
个体衰老的速度差异很大,导致人口内健康和老龄化结果的显著异质性。健康和老龄化轨迹的这种多样性很少在一生中经历过重大困难的低收入老龄人口中进行调查。利用马拉维家庭与健康纵向研究2006-2019年的数据,并估计基于群体的轨迹模型,我们的分析确定了三种不同的生命过程健康轨迹:(1)在整个生命过程中持续的相对良好的初始心理和身体健康(“弹性衰老”),(2)相对良好的初始心理和身体健康在成年中期开始恶化(“加速衰老”),以及(3)初始心理和身体健康状况较差,在整个生命过程中进一步下降(“持续健康不良的衰老”)。在生理和心理健康方面,男性比女性更有可能适应衰老。轨迹成员性别以外的预测因素有时证实,有时与高收入国家研究的假设相矛盾。我们的分析强调了早期生活条件和性别在决定老龄化轨迹方面的长期影响,并表明一个非平凡的亚群的特征是健康状况持续不佳。该研究发现,在适应力强的人与加速衰老的人之间,健康结果的差距正在扩大。
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引用次数: 0
Harriet Martineau on Immigrants in Rural America 哈丽雅特-马丁诺谈美国农村移民
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-11-20 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12596
G. Mcnicoll
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引用次数: 0
Giorgia Meloni on Italy's Demographic Challenge Giorgia Meloni谈意大利的人口挑战
2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12595
Population and Development ReviewEarly View DOCUMENTS Giorgia Meloni on Italy's Demographic Challenge First published: 13 November 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12595Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Early ViewOnline Version of Record before inclusion in an issue RelatedInformation
人口与发展评论早期查看文件Giorgia Meloni关于意大利的人口挑战首次发布:2023年11月13日https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12595Read全文taboutpdf ToolsRequest permissionExport citation添加到favoritesTrack citation ShareShare给予accessShare全文accessShare全文accessShare全文accessShare请查看我们的使用条款和条件,并勾选下面的复选框共享文章的全文版本。我已经阅读并接受了Wiley在线图书馆使用共享链接的条款和条件,请使用下面的链接与您的朋友和同事分享本文的全文版本。学习更多的知识。复制URL共享链接共享onemailfacebooktwitterlinkedinreddit微信早期视图在线版本记录前纳入问题相关信息
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引用次数: 0
The United Nations on Global Food Security 联合国全球粮食安全
2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12594
Population and Development ReviewEarly View DOCUMENTS The United Nations on Global Food Security First published: 10 November 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12594Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Early ViewOnline Version of Record before inclusion in an issue RelatedInformation
人口与发展评论早期查看文件联合国全球粮食安全首次发布:2023年11月10日https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12594Read全文taboutpdf工具请求许可导出引文添加到收藏夹引用ShareShare给予访问分享全文accessShare全文accessShare请查看我们的使用条款和条件,并勾选下面的复选框以分享文章的全文版本。我已经阅读并接受了Wiley在线图书馆使用共享链接的条款和条件,请使用下面的链接与您的朋友和同事分享本文的全文版本。学习更多的知识。复制URL共享链接共享onemailfacebooktwitterlinkedinreddit微信早期视图在线版本记录前纳入问题相关信息
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