European Journal of Political Economy最新文献

英文中文

Inequality, conspiracy theories, and redistribution 不平等、阴谋论和再分配

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102698

Daiki Kishishita

Despite a rapid increase in inequality, redistribution does not necessarily expand. I address this paradox by emphasizing a novel effect of inequality on the acceptance of conspiracy theories. For this purpose, I develop an electoral competition model in which voters are divided into rich and poor. Each voter weighs the desire to maintain their self-image against the need for accurate beliefs, leading to varied endorsements of conspiracy theories. In the model, greater inequality leads the poor to believe more strongly in conspiracy theories. As a result, poor voters can seek more reforms to defeat conspiracies and lower income taxation. I show that greater inequality paradoxically reduces income taxation when the initial inequality is high and the distortion of taxation is large. In the shadow of prevalent conspiracy theories, democracy may fail to act as a protector against rising inequality.

尽管不平等迅速加剧，但再分配并不一定会扩大。我通过强调不平等对阴谋论接受度的新影响来解决这个悖论。为此，我开发了一个选举竞争模型，其中选民分为富人和穷人。每位选民都在维护自我形象的愿望与对准确信念的需求之间进行权衡，导致对阴谋论的不同支持。在该模型中，更大的不平等导致穷人更强烈地相信阴谋论。因此，贫穷的选民可以寻求更多的改革来击败阴谋和降低所得税。我表明，当最初的不平等程度很高，税收扭曲程度很大时，更大的不平等矛盾地减少了所得税。在阴谋论盛行的阴影下，民主可能无法抵御日益加剧的不平等。

引用次数: 0

Doom loop, trilemma, and moral hazard: Which narrative of the banking union did stock market investors buy? 厄运循环、三难困境和道德风险：股市投资者相信银行业联盟的哪一种说法？

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102683

Tobias Körner , Michael Papageorgiou

We analyze the impact of the announcement of the banking union on stock market returns of euro area banks against the backdrop of three commonly held views of the banking union. We document positive individual abnormal returns for most banks. Abnormal returns are large and positive on average, and they vary substantially across banks. The more systemically important a bank is, the higher are the abnormal returns, both in ‘crisis countries’ and ‘non-crisis countries’. Moreover, abnormal returns of banks are positively related to sovereign risk, with Greek banks experiencing extremely high abnormal returns. By contrast, abnormal returns are not robustly related to bank risk. These findings reveal market expectations consistent with the view that the banking union makes banks less dependent on their home country’s sovereign strength and mitigates a financial trilemma. However, market participants do not seem to take the view that the banking union reduces a moral hazard problem that may emerge from a common lender of last resort and national responsibilities for banking supervision and resolution.

本文以银行业联盟的三种普遍观点为背景，分析了银行业联盟宣布对欧元区银行股票市场回报的影响。我们记录了大多数银行正的个别异常回报。平均而言，异常回报很大，而且是正的，不同银行的异常回报差异很大。一家银行的系统重要性越高，其异常回报就越高，无论是在“危机国家”还是“非危机国家”。此外，银行的异常收益与主权风险正相关，希腊银行的异常收益极高。相比之下，异常收益与银行风险之间的相关性并不强。这些发现表明，市场预期与以下观点是一致的：银行业联盟降低了银行对母国主权实力的依赖，缓解了金融三难困境。然而，市场参与者似乎并不认为，银行业联盟能够减少道德风险问题，而道德风险问题可能源于一个共同的最后贷款人，以及各国对银行监管和处置的责任。

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引用次数: 0

State building and social control 国家建设和社会控制

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102699

Alberto Chong , Mark Gradstein

A modicum of homogeneity of social norms is deemed valuable by societies, and social control is a way to achieve it. In this paper, we posit an economy populated by masses and elites, whereby the social norms of the former affect the welfare of the latter group. Consequently, the elites may exercise social control to induce the masses to embrace norms aligned with their own preferences. Our analysis reveals, in particular, that social control may go hand in hand with the prevalence of mass education, which induces homogeneity of norms. This is shown to be consistent with historical evidence on the emergence of public schooling.

社会认为社会规范的少量同质性是有价值的，而社会控制是实现这一价值的一种方式。在本文中，我们假设一个由大众和精英组成的经济体，其中前者的社会规范影响后者的福利。因此，精英们可能会行使社会控制，诱使大众接受符合他们自己偏好的规范。我们的分析特别表明，社会控制可能与大众教育的普及密切相关，后者导致了规范的同质性。这与公立学校出现的历史证据是一致的。

引用次数: 0

Lady Justice: The impact of female judges on jury trial verdicts in North Carolina 女法官：北卡罗莱纳州女法官对陪审团审判判决的影响

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102678

Alessandra Foresta

This study evaluates the impact of judges’ gender on jury trial outcomes in the U.S. state of North Carolina. The identification strategy is based on conditional random assignment of judges to cases. Specifically, I take advantage of the compulsory judges’ rotation imposed by the North Carolina Constitution. The results indicate that the presence of a female judge increases of 9.64–13.50 percentage points the probability of having at least one guilty verdict from the jury and of 9.5%–13.45% increase in the proportion of guilty verdicts expressed by the jury. Additionally, I perform a series of robustness and heterogeneity checks. I also investigate the potential mechanisms driving the results, exploring the influence of the jury selection process and women’s attitudes toward the courts and sentencing.

本研究评估了美国北卡罗来纳州法官性别对陪审团审判结果的影响。该识别策略基于法官对案件的条件随机分配。具体来说，我利用了北卡罗来纳州宪法规定的强制法官轮岗制度。结果表明，女性法官的存在使陪审团做出至少一项有罪判决的概率增加9.64-13.50个百分点，使陪审团做出有罪判决的比例增加9.5%-13.45%。此外，我还执行了一系列稳健性和异质性检查。我还研究了驱动结果的潜在机制，探讨了陪审团选择过程和妇女对法院和量刑的态度的影响。

引用次数: 0

Conflict, information and regime-change 冲突、信息和政权更迭

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102681

Davide Bosco , Luca Colombo , Gianluca Femminis

We study the choice between media freedom and censorship by an autocratic regime whose power can be challenged by citizens’ riots. To mitigate the risk of revolts, the regime can reduce citizens’ discontent, which is unknown to all, through public goods provision. To fine-tune such provision, the regime needs reliable information about discontent. However, public information has the unintended effect of helping citizens to coordinate towards rioting. We find that, ex ante, media freedom is preferred by strong and weak regimes, whereas censorship is preferred by regimes of intermediate strength. We also show that, absent policy-making, all regimes would prefer censorship, implying that media freedom is important for the fine-tuning of public goods provision, and hence for building popular consensus.

我们研究了一个威权政权在媒体自由和审查制度之间的选择，这个政权的权力可能受到公民骚乱的挑战。为了降低起义的风险，政府可以通过提供公共产品来减少公民的不满，这是所有人都不知道的。为了对这些条款进行微调，当局需要有关不满情绪的可靠信息。然而，公共信息有意想不到的效果，帮助公民协调骚乱。我们发现，在此之前，强大和弱小的政权都更喜欢媒体自由，而中等实力的政权则更喜欢审查制度。我们还表明，在缺乏政策制定的情况下，所有政权都倾向于审查制度，这意味着媒体自由对于公共产品提供的微调以及由此建立大众共识非常重要。

引用次数: 0

Kin-based institutions and state capacity 以亲属为基础的制度和国家能力

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102676

Roberto Ezcurra

This paper examines the relationship between kin-based institutions and state capacity. The results show that the intensity of kinship networks is a strong predictor of present-day state capacity, both across and within countries. Societies historically characterized by more intensive kinship systems tend to have weaker states today. This finding holds after accounting for various variables that may be correlated with both kinship network intensity and state capacity, including a broad range of geographic, historical, and contemporary factors. The results are also robust when employing an instrumental variable approach that exploits plausibly exogenous variation in historical exposure to the marriage laws of the medieval Catholic Church. Additionally, the analysis reveals that societies with intensive kin-based institutions typically exhibit lower political centralization. Given the essential role of political centralization in establishing state capacity, this finding helps explain the negative association between kinship intensity and state capacity.

本文考察了亲属制度与国家能力之间的关系。结果表明，亲属关系网络的强度是当今国家能力的一个强有力的预测指标，无论是在国家之间还是在国家内部。历史上以更紧密的亲属制度为特征的社会，今天往往有更弱的国家。在考虑了可能与亲属网络强度和国家能力相关的各种变量（包括广泛的地理、历史和当代因素）之后，这一发现成立。当采用工具变量方法（利用中世纪天主教婚姻法的历史暴露中似是而非的外生变化）时，结果也很稳健。此外，分析还显示，拥有密集亲属制度的社会通常表现出较低的政治集中化。鉴于政治集中化在建立国家能力方面的重要作用，这一发现有助于解释亲属关系强度与国家能力之间的负相关关系。

引用次数: 0

Spend on what? Insights on military spending efficiency 花在什么上？对军费开支效率的洞察

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102696

Dimitrios Dimitriou , Eleftherios Goulas , Christos Kallandranis

This study investigates the role of military sector efficiency on the economic growth-defence spending relationship in 135 countries from 1992 to 2020. Efficiency stems from capital intensity of the military sector and the existence of technological externalities and economies of scale associated with armaments exports. Our findings indicate that a higher level of efficiency can moderate or eliminate the adverse effects of military burden on economic growth. Introducing alliance participation, we highlight the ‘protective’ role of NATO for its member-states with lower efficiency levels, while SCO seems to be less supportive.

本研究考察了1992年至2020年135个国家军事部门效率对经济增长-国防开支关系的作用。效率源于军事部门的资本密集度和技术外部性的存在以及与武器出口有关的规模经济。我们的研究结果表明，更高的效率水平可以缓和或消除军事负担对经济增长的不利影响。在介绍联盟参与时，我们强调北约对其效率水平较低的成员国的“保护”作用，而上海合作组织似乎不太支持。

引用次数: 0

Social media campaigning and voter behavior–evidence for the German federal election 2021

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102685

Abeer Ibtisam Aziz, Ivo Bischoff

We analyze the relationship between party campaigning on social media and the voting intentions voiced by respondents in a large representative survey in the German federal election campaign in 2021. We argue that online campaigns spread through the online and offline networks of the initial recipients – thereby influencing substantial parts of the electorate. We exploit inter-temporal, inter-regional, and inter-party differences in the intensity of campaigning by parties and candidates on Facebook and Twitter. In addition, we control for the respondents' choice in the previous federal election and a number of other personal characteristics. Using a multinomial logit model with alternative-specific constants, we find the probability of a respondent's intention to vote for a party to increase in the state-specific campaigning activities on social media of this party the days before. While the literature suggests that especially populist right-wing parties will benefit from campaigning on social media, we find the marginal impact to be significantly higher for Christian democrats, Social Democrats, and Greens than for the right-wing “Alternative für Deutschland”.

我们分析了政党在社交媒体上的竞选活动与受访者在2021年德国联邦选举活动中所表达的投票意向之间的关系。我们认为，在线竞选活动通过最初接受者的线上和线下网络传播——从而影响了相当大一部分选民。我们利用政党和候选人在Facebook和Twitter上的竞选强度的跨时间、跨地区和跨党派差异。此外，我们还控制了受访者在之前的联邦选举中的选择以及其他一些个人特征。我们使用具有特定选择常数的多项logit模型，发现受访者在前几天在该政党的社交媒体上特定州的竞选活动中投票给该政党的意图增加的概率。虽然文献表明，尤其是民粹主义右翼政党将从社交媒体上的竞选活动中受益，但我们发现，基督教民主党、社会民主党和绿党的边际影响明显高于右翼的“德国新选择党”。

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引用次数: 0

Capital vs. labour: The effect of income sources on attitudes toward the top 1 percent 资本与劳动力：收入来源对人们对收入最高的1%的态度的影响

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102684

Oscar Barrera-Rodríguez , Emmanuel Chávez

We conduct a randomized online survey to study how information on the share of top earners' income derived from capital and labour affects attitudes toward top earners. Our findings re-veal that: (i) At the baseline, respondents tend to overestimate the income of the top 1 percent, have no clear priors on their capital vs. labor shares, and want them to pay a higher income tax rate than the current one; (ii) quantitative information on top earners’ income sources leads people to have more unfavorable views toward the rich; (iii) individuals most responsive to our treatments vote for left-wing candidates and have egalitarian notions of justice.

我们进行了一项随机在线调查，以研究来自资本和劳动力的高收入者收入份额的信息如何影响对高收入者的态度。我们的研究结果显示：(i)在基线上，受访者倾向于高估收入最高的1%的收入，没有明确的资本与劳动份额的先验，并希望他们支付比当前更高的所得税税率；（ii）关于高收入者收入来源的定量信息导致人们对富人有更多的负面看法；（iii）对我们的治疗反应最积极的个人投票给左翼候选人，并有平等主义的正义观念。

引用次数: 0

Assessing the efficacy of China's anti-corruption drive: Insights from consumer expenditure patterns 评估中国反腐运动的效果：来自消费者支出模式的洞察

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102680

Zhengang Xu

This paper examines the economic impact of China's President Xi Jinping's Eight Regulations of Austerity and the coordinated anti-corruption campaign. Specifically, I analyze the effects of this campaign on household expenditure patterns in China using a triple differences approach. I compare the expenditures of households with government employees to those without, both before and after the anti-corruption reform, across commodities likely to be subject to corruption versus those unlikely to be affected. The findings demonstrate that, in the post-reform period, government-affiliated families allocate relatively more expenditure towards goods they likely obtained illegally through bribes previously. Conversely, expenditure patterns for goods less susceptible to corruption do not show a relative increase in the post-reform period. These expenditure shifts are most pronounced among families of low-level officials, with the majority of the increase observed among non-Chinese Communist Party member government employees and those outside Xi Jinping's power base. This suggests that individuals with the strongest party ties were able to circumvent the effects of the anti-corruption campaign.

具体而言，我使用三重差异方法分析了这一运动对中国家庭支出模式的影响。我比较了反腐改革前后有政府雇员的家庭和没有政府雇员的家庭的支出，包括可能受到腐败影响的商品和不太可能受到腐败影响的商品。研究结果表明，在改革后时期，政府附属家庭将相对更多的支出用于他们以前可能通过贿赂非法获得的商品。相反，不易受腐败影响的商品的支出模式在改革后期间没有显示出相对增加。这表明，与政党关系最密切的个人能够规避反腐运动的影响。

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