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Democratic engagement in the shadow of authoritarian repression: Evidence from Chile (2019–2023) 专制镇压阴影下的民主参与:来自智利的证据(2019-2023)
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102704
Armando N.G.L. Martins
This article analyzes the long-term effects of authoritarian repression on democratic engagement (protests and voting) in Chile, focusing on the 2019–2020 Estallido Social protests and the 2020–2023 constitutional plebiscite process. It uses measures such as the location of military bases before 1970 and the number of victims during Pinochet’s regime to capture the intensity of past repression. The study also examines indicators of contemporary political behavior linked to the legacy of this repression, including public demonstrations, NGO activity, memorial sites, and social media engagement. Two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimates suggest that exposure to political violence continues to shape civic and electoral behavior even after three decades after the end of the dictatorship. Moreover, municipalities more affected by dictatorship-era violence were more likely to protest but less likely to participate in the constitutional plebiscite. These areas did not consistently oppose incumbent politicians or favor independent candidates. Overall, the findings suggest that historical repression can contribute to greater reaction on the streets to political violence and lower levels of electoral engagement in contemporary democracies.
本文分析了独裁镇压对智利民主参与(抗议和投票)的长期影响,重点关注2019-2020年Estallido社会抗议活动和2020-2023年宪法公民投票进程。它使用诸如1970年前军事基地的位置和皮诺切特政权期间的受害者人数等指标来捕捉过去镇压的强度。该研究还考察了与这一镇压遗留问题相关的当代政治行为指标,包括公众示威、非政府组织活动、纪念场所和社交媒体参与。两阶段最小二乘(2SLS)估计表明,即使在独裁统治结束三十年后,暴露于政治暴力仍在影响公民和选举行为。此外,受独裁统治时期暴力影响更大的城市更有可能抗议,但不太可能参与宪法公投。这些地区并不一贯反对现任政治家或支持独立候选人。总的来说,研究结果表明,在当代民主国家,历史上的镇压可能导致街头对政治暴力的更大反应和更低的选举参与水平。
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引用次数: 0
Strategic interdependence in sovereign lending 主权贷款中的战略相互依赖
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102715
Jonas B. Bunte , Brandon J. Kinne
Government-to-government loans are powerful instruments of influence, but how do creditor governments decide whom to lend to? We argue that these decisions are shaped by the lending behavior of third-party creditors, as governments strategically allocate loans to maximize their geopolitical influence. Specifically, creditors observe and respond to third-party lending patterns, using these signals to guide their own choices. Crucially, the identity of these third-party creditors matters: rather than engaging directly with rivals, creditors tend to specialize and cooperate within their partnerships. We introduce and empirically test network effects in sovereign lending, showing that lending follows a pattern of conditional preferential attachment. Creditors are more likely to extend loans to recipients supported by their political partners than to recipients supported by adversaries. Consequently, although lending competition is not easily visible in aggregate data, lending patterns reveal a fragmentation into politically aligned creditor blocs. Our inferential network models provide strong evidence of this dynamic, demonstrating that governments’ perceptions of a recipient’s strategic value are shaped by the actions of other lenders. By incorporating this strategic interdependence, our analysis significantly improves the prediction of which governments receive loans and from whom.
政府间贷款是强大的影响力工具,但债权国政府如何决定向谁放贷?我们认为,这些决策是由第三方债权人的贷款行为塑造的,因为政府战略性地分配贷款以最大化其地缘政治影响力。具体来说,债权人观察并回应第三方借贷模式,利用这些信号来指导自己的选择。至关重要的是,这些第三方债权人的身份很重要:与其直接与竞争对手打交道,债权人倾向于专业化,并在合作伙伴关系中进行合作。我们引入并实证检验了主权贷款中的网络效应,表明贷款遵循有条件的优先依附模式。债权人更有可能向其政治伙伴支持的接受国提供贷款,而不是向对手支持的接受国提供贷款。因此,尽管贷款竞争不容易从总体数据中看到,但贷款模式显示出政治上结盟的债权人集团的分裂。我们的推理网络模型为这一动态提供了强有力的证据,表明政府对接受国战略价值的看法是由其他贷款人的行为所塑造的。通过纳入这种战略上的相互依存关系,我们的分析大大改善了对哪些政府获得贷款以及从谁那里获得贷款的预测。
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引用次数: 0
Do appointing institutions influence monetary policy? Evidence from voting patterns in the Polish Monetary Policy Council 任命机构会影响货币政策吗?来自波兰货币政策委员会投票模式的证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102721
Jan Fałkowski, Jacek Lewkowicz, Łukasz Hardt, Bartosz Słysz
The main aim of the study is to analyse the extent to which the monetary-policy views of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members vary along institutional channels of appointment. To this end, we investigate the voting records of the Polish MPC over the period 1998–2022, taking advantage of the fact that in Poland all MPC members, except the chairman, are appointed in equal numbers by the President and the two houses of parliament (the Sejm and the Senate). We document that members appointed by the same institution are more likely to vote in the same way, than those appointed by different institutions. This pattern indicates that the appointing institution plays a role in shaping voting behaviour. In line with this, our results suggest that having separate appointing institutions promotes a diversity of views regarding the optimal level of interest rates. Appointees of the Sejm emerge as the most dovish and relatively often contribute to the winning coalition in close vote tallies.
这项研究的主要目的是分析货币政策委员会(MPC)成员的货币政策观点在多大程度上随着任命的制度渠道而变化。为此,我们调查了波兰货币政策委员会在1998年至2022年期间的投票记录,利用了波兰所有货币政策委员会成员(主席除外)由总统和议会两院(众议院和参议院)任命的事实。我们记录了由同一机构任命的成员比由不同机构任命的成员更有可能以相同的方式投票。这种模式表明,任命机构在塑造投票行为方面发挥了作用。与此相一致的是,我们的研究结果表明,单独的任命机构促进了对最佳利率水平的不同看法。被任命的众议院议员是最温和的,在票数接近的情况下,他们往往会为获胜的联盟做出贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Public investment on health and voter responses: Evidence from the mass vaccination during COVID-19 公共卫生投资与选民反应:来自COVID-19期间大规模疫苗接种的证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102718
Masaki Takahashi , Reo Takaku , Toyo Ashida , Yoko Ibuka
This study examines the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on political support by leveraging Japan’s age-based vaccination rollout, which prioritized people aged 65 and older. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we found that vaccination increased favorable opinions of vaccination progress and infection control measures by 27.4% and 14.7%, respectively. These favorable opinions extended to positive perceptions of other infection control measures, ultimately fostering trust in the government. In addition, the effect of vaccination was heterogeneous: it was more pronounced among individuals with chronic diseases, women, those of lower socioeconomic status, and those with higher levels of interpersonal trust. In contrast, low trusters became more dissatisfied with how the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics in 2021 were managed, without showing an increase in positive opinions of the government.
本研究通过利用日本基于年龄的疫苗接种计划(优先考虑65岁及以上的人群),考察了COVID-19疫苗接种对政治支持的影响。采用模糊回归不连续设计,接种疫苗使接种进度和感染控制措施的好感度分别增加27.4%和14.7%。这些有利的意见延伸到对其他感染控制措施的积极看法,最终培养了对政府的信任。此外,疫苗接种的效果是异质的:在慢性病患者、妇女、社会经济地位较低的人和人际信任水平较高的人中,效果更为明显。相反,低信任者对2021年东京奥运会和残奥会的运营表现出更多的不满,而对政府的正面评价却没有增加。
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引用次数: 0
Flooding the vote: Heterogeneous voting responses to a natural disaster in Germany 投票泛滥:德国自然灾害引发的不同投票反应
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102694
K. Peren Arin , Kevin Devereux , Joel Methorst , Marcel Thum
We present the first evidence of voter-level responses to a climatic disaster — the catastrophic German flooding of 2021, which serves as a natural experiment. Data on previous voting history reveals non-monotonic treatment effects: flood exposure increased the likelihood of voting for the Green Party by four to five percentage points among previous non-Green voters, but decreased future Green voting for previous Green voters. Tracking migration also reveals heterogeneity. Movers-out of flood zones responded more strongly; classifying them in the control group – as geographic panels do – attenuates the treatment effect. Both factors rationalize past findings of null or small effects, emphasizing the importance of microdata.
我们提出了选民层面对气候灾难反应的第一个证据——2021年德国灾难性的洪水,这是一个自然实验。以往投票历史的数据揭示了非单调的处理效应:洪水暴露使以前的非绿党选民投票给绿党的可能性增加了4到5个百分点,但减少了以前的绿党选民未来投票给绿党的可能性。跟踪迁移也揭示了异质性。洪水区外的迁出者反应更为强烈;将他们归入控制组——就像地理分组那样——会减弱治疗效果。这两个因素都合理化了过去的零效应或小效应的发现,强调了微观数据的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The dynamics of revolutions 革命的动力
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102705
Moti Michaeli , Daniel Spiro
We study the dynamics of revolutions by extending Kuran’s (1989) dynamic model of mass protests, allowing dissenters to choose not only whether to dissent but also how much. In the model, regimes may differ in how harshly they sanction small vs. large dissent; and societies may differ in how individuals perceive the cost of small vs. large deviations from their own ideological convictions. Such a generalization provides a typology of revolutions and predicts who is more likely to start a revolution: those whose ideology is close to the regime’s (moderates) or those far from it (extremists). It also provides predictions about the ideology they will express, how this will dynamically change during a revolution and about which policies may trigger a revolution and which may consolidate the regime’s strength. In particular, moderates are more likely to start a revolution if individuals are sensitive to even small deviations from their ideology. This sensitivity makes moderates voice their criticism despite only slightly disagreeing with the regime. Extremists, on the other hand, are silenced, because expressing their extreme views bears heavy sanctioning. This further implies that a popular policy may trigger or accelerate a revolution, because it indirectly spurs more people to become “moderate” hence speak their minds.
我们通过扩展Kuran(1989)的大规模抗议动态模型来研究革命的动态,允许持不同政见者不仅选择是否持不同政见者,而且选择持不同政见者的数量。在该模型中,政权在制裁小异议和大异议的严厉程度上可能有所不同;而且,在个人如何看待与自己的意识形态信念大小偏差的代价方面,社会可能会有所不同。这种概括提供了一种革命的类型,并预测了谁更有可能发动革命:那些意识形态与政权接近的人(温和派)还是那些远离政权的人(极端主义者)。它还提供了对他们将表达的意识形态的预测,这种意识形态在革命期间将如何动态变化,以及哪些政策可能引发革命,哪些政策可能巩固政权的力量。特别是,如果个人对与他们的理念稍有偏差都很敏感,那么温和派就更有可能发动革命。这种敏感性使得温和派尽管对政权只有轻微的异议,但仍会表达他们的批评。另一方面,极端分子则被噤声,因为表达他们的极端观点会受到严厉制裁。这进一步表明,一项受欢迎的政策可能会触发或加速一场革命,因为它间接地促使更多的人变得“温和”,从而说出他们的想法。
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引用次数: 0
Googling ‘inflation’: Household inflation attention across the euro area 谷歌“通胀”:整个欧元区的家庭通胀关注
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102702
Christian Buelens
This paper investigates the dynamics of household inflation attention in the euro area, using internet searches as a direct measure of inflation attention. It identifies different inflation attention-regimes dependent on the inflation context, aligning with the theory of rational inattention. Additionally, the paper finds that changes in monetary policy raise inflation attention in some euro area countries, indicating that households perceive a connection between monetary policy decisions and inflation. The analysis further reveals significant heterogeneity in inflation attention patterns across euro area countries, evident in three dimensions: (i) varying levels of structural inflation attention, seemingly linked to national inflation aversion; (ii) varying sensitivities of inflation attention to changes in inflation and inflation volatility, and differing thresholds at which the sensitivity of attention to inflation increases; (iii) asymmetric responses of national inflation attention to monetary policy announcements. Finally, the paper provides evidence of a structural increase in inflation attention after the post-pandemic inflation surge, along with a general decrease in attention thresholds. A better understanding of the factors driving inflation attention and its cross-country variation can help policymakers in a monetary union to enhance and better target their communication on inflation.
本文研究了欧元区家庭通胀关注的动态,使用互联网搜索作为通胀关注的直接衡量标准。它根据通胀背景确定了不同的通胀注意机制,与理性不注意理论相一致。此外,本文发现,货币政策的变化提高了一些欧元区国家对通胀的关注,这表明家庭认为货币政策决策与通胀之间存在联系。分析进一步揭示了欧元区各国通胀关注模式的显著异质性,体现在三个方面:(i)不同程度的结构性通胀关注,似乎与各国对通胀的厌恶有关;(ii)通货膨胀关注对通货膨胀和通货膨胀波动变化的不同敏感性,以及对通货膨胀关注敏感性增加的不同阈值;(iii)国家通货膨胀对货币政策公告的反应不对称。最后,本文提供了证据,证明在大流行后通货膨胀激增之后,对通货膨胀的关注出现了结构性增加,同时关注阈值普遍下降。更好地了解推动通胀关注的因素及其跨国差异,可以帮助货币联盟的政策制定者加强并更好地就通胀问题进行有针对性的沟通。
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引用次数: 0
In the grip of Whitehall? The effects of party control on local fiscal policy in England 在白厅的控制下?政党控制对英格兰地方财政政策的影响
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102697
Benjamin Lockwood , Francesco Porcelli , James Rockey
This paper uses an instrumental variable approach based on close elections to evaluate the effects of political parties on local fiscal policy in England from 1998 to 2015. Our main finding is that when we condition on the central government grant, political control of the council by Labour or Conservative parties has no effect on total service expenditure, the composition of that expenditure, and the property tax rate (council tax per band D property). We find the same null results for capital expenditure, debt, and authorized debt limits. Using data on the distribution of income within local authorities, we find no evidence that this null result is being driven by homogeneous electorates rather than fiscal constraints. Thus, our results confirm the widely expressed belief that centrally imposed constraints on local government fiscal policy (rate-capping, and more recently, compulsory referenda, and the Prudential Code for borrowing) hold local government fiscal policy in a tight grip.
本文采用基于相近选举的工具变量方法评估了1998 - 2015年英国政党对地方财政政策的影响。我们的主要发现是,当我们以中央政府拨款为条件时,工党或保守党对市政委员会的政治控制对总服务支出、支出构成和房产税率(每D级房产的市政税)没有影响。对于资本支出、债务和授权债务限额,我们发现相同的无效结果。利用地方政府内部收入分配的数据,我们发现没有证据表明这一无效结果是由同质选民而不是财政约束驱动的。因此,我们的研究结果证实了一种广泛表达的观点,即中央对地方政府财政政策施加的限制(利率上限,以及最近的强制性全民公决和审慎借贷准则)使地方政府财政政策受到严格控制。
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引用次数: 0
Can the middle class benefit from more conservative redistribution? 中产阶级能从更保守的再分配中受益吗?
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102700
Darong Dai
There is considerable evidence indicating that high-income earners are increasingly able to avoid or evade taxes, while the working poor at the bottom have a growing justification for demanding greater redistribution. We examine how enhanced external opportunities for top talent and rising redistributive motives from the bottom impact the benefits available to the middle class. The government maximizes a weighted social welfare function, with an exogenous welfare weight assigned to the lowest skill type. This objective is subject to the conventional government budget constraint, truth-telling constraints, and the participation constraint for the highest skill type (“top talent”). We conduct a comparative static analysis of the optimal income allocations in relation to the welfare weight of the lowest incomes and the reservation utility of top talent. We find that, all else being equal, the optimal income received by the middle class decreases as the welfare weight parameter increases, while it rises with the reservation utility of top talent.
有相当多的证据表明,高收入者越来越有能力避免或逃避税收,而底层的贫困劳动者越来越有理由要求加大再分配力度。我们研究了顶级人才的外部机会增加和底层再分配动机的上升如何影响中产阶级的利益。政府将加权社会福利函数最大化,将外生福利权重分配给最低技能类型。这一目标受制于传统的政府预算约束、讲真话约束和对最高技能类型(“顶尖人才”)的参与约束。我们对最低收入的福利权重和顶尖人才的保留效用进行了最优收入分配的比较静态分析。我们发现,在其他条件相同的情况下,中产阶级的最优收入随着福利权重参数的增加而减少,而随着顶尖人才的保留效用的增加而增加。
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引用次数: 0
Recovering history: Using the Nobel lectures to identify hidden women in economic thought 恢复历史:利用诺贝尔奖讲座找出隐藏在经济思想中的女性
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102703
Darwyyn Deyo
Women's historical contributions to the development of economic thought are often hidden or overlooked, demonstrating an example of the Matilda Effect. One way to identify more of these women is by identifying their work through the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences prize lectures. In this study, I identify citations in the prize lectures from 1969 to 2009, the year when Elinor Ostrom won the prize. These lectures represent a novel data source to identify a substantial sample of women in the history of economic thought. I identified 125 women as authors in 165 citations and 29 women as editors in 34 citations. In total, 163 unique women are acknowledged in 198 unique citations. I provide a descriptive analysis of scholars and citations, including publication type, longevity, and field. I also classify types of contributions within the discipline, from authorship, editorship, and manuscript support. I find that the Nobel lectures provide an important resource for identifying more women who made significant contributions to the development of economic thought, and I provide a public database that supports research on a credit attribution gap in the literature.
女性对经济思想发展的历史贡献往往被隐藏或忽视,这是“玛蒂尔达效应”的一个例子。了解更多女性的一个方法是通过瑞典央行经济科学奖的讲座来了解她们的工作。在这项研究中,我确定了1969年至2009年(埃莉诺·奥斯特罗姆获奖的那一年)获奖演讲中的引文。这些讲座代表了一种新的数据来源,可以识别经济思想史上大量的女性样本。我发现165篇引文中有125名女性作者,34篇引文中有29名女性编辑。总共有163名独特的女性在198次独特的引用中得到认可。我提供了学者和引文的描述性分析,包括出版物类型,寿命和领域。我还对学科内的贡献类型进行分类,从作者、编辑和手稿支持。我发现,诺贝尔奖讲座为识别更多对经济思想发展做出重大贡献的女性提供了重要资源,我还提供了一个公共数据库,支持对文献中信用归属差距的研究。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
European Journal of Political Economy
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